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Applying Advanced Spatial Tools for Landscape Analysis and Climate Change
Adaptation in Asian Highlands:
Yunnan Case
Jianchu XuPresented at ICRAF, Nairobi, 5th March, 2012
With Support fromRobert Zomer, Antonio Trabucoo, Huafang Chen, Rong Lang, Haiying Yu,
Wen Sha, Xueqing Yang, Xing Ma, Xuefei YangWorld Agroforestry Centre, East Asia Node
Centre for Mountain Ecosystem Studies
Outline of Presentation
The RegionGlobal change Evidence of impactsYunnan Case
Navigating from Highlands to Lowlands in Asia
malayan Glaciers, the largest outside of polar region
Tibetan Plateau
Great Rivers of Northwest Yunnan
Xishuangbanna, Southern Yunnan
Tonle Sap of Cambodia
Mekong Delta of Vietnam
GlobalImportance of BiodiversityOne of four richest vascular plant regionsThe richest Gymnosperms in the world Two global biodiversity hotspots:Southwest China, Indo-Burma
SW China
Indo-Burma
Biodiversity Hotspots
Small scale differences in• Temperature• Water• Nutrients• Substrate
Geodiversity drives species diversity
Habitat diversity is driven by gravity
Indigenous groups along Mekong Region Transect
Complex social/ethnic groups with dynamic livelihoods:
• Tibetan nomads
• Agro-pastalist
• Upland farmers
• Shifting cultivators
• Paddy farmers
• Fishery
Diverse landscapes & ecosystems:• High Plateau
• Alpine
• Subtropical
• Tropical
• Aquatic/wetland
The Greater Rivers
Vertical Linkage in Mountain Ecosystem
What does global change mean for ecosystem?
Land use/cover change
Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Climate Change25~30%
water
temperature
+emission
—sequestration
What are the implications of land use/cover change to biodiversity and environmental security?
Science 2009 (324): 1024-1025
Temperature Gradient in Himalayans
(Adapted from Liu and Chen 2000, and AB Shrestha 1999)
Warming Faster than Global Average in high altitude
23/41
Projected precipitation changes by 2100
At least 10%reduction
At least 10%increase
Hadley Circulation
Haydley Circulation and Droughts in Southwest China
Fu et al, 2006, Science; Seidel, Fu et al, 2008, Nature Geoscience
What impact of climate change on alpine ecosystem?
Yu, Luedeling and Xu, 2010. PNAS 107, 22151-22156
Delaying phenology in Tibetan Plateau phenology
Beginning of the growing season
(BGS) in meadow and
steppe vegetation Remotely
sensed (GIMMS dataset 1982-
2006)
Clear delays in
recent years
26/41
Habitat loss following climatic change (doubling of atmospheric CO2 )
27/41
Landscape and Livelihood Linkage
Landscape
Livelihood
Tourism
Hydrological cycle
Mountainagriculture
Slope stabilityCryosphere Biosphere
Safety of people
Hydropower
Conservation Biology 2009,23(3) 520–530.
What are the Social-Ecological Cascading Effects from mountain top to delta?
Yunnan-A Unique Province in China
Rich Plant Diversity & Resources
About one third or more of 41 million residents in
Yunnan are ethnic peoples of 25 minorities
Diverse and attractive ethnic culture
Applying the GEnS – Global Stratification for Assessing Regional Climate Change
Impacts on Terrestrial Ecosystems
A globally consistent bio-climatic stratification based upon statistical quantitative approach using spatially distributed climate data (WorldClim) developed within the framework of the GeoBON (GEOSS Biodiversity Observation Network) (Metzger et al. 2010)
Allows for comparative analysis across regions and statistically-based prediction of future change based upon changing climatic conditions
GEnS – Bioclimate Map
Metzger, M.J., Bunce, R.G.H., Jongman, R.H.G., Sayre, R., Trabucco, A., Zomer, R. (2012) A high resolution bioclimate map of the world: a unifying framework for global biodiversity research. Global Ecology and Biogeography. In Press.
Yunnan Province - Projected Climate Change Hadley GCM – Scenario A2Precipitation (mm)
Temperature (°C)
Aridity Index( > is more humid)
Generally Wetter
Average Annual Precipitation increases by 9.7 percent from 1137 mm/yr to 1260 mm/yr
Generally Hotter
Average Annual Temperatureincreases by 12 percent from 15.5°C to 17.5°C
Non-Uniform Impacts
Changes in growing conditions are spatially differentiated across the region
Yunnan Province – Environmental StratificationAnd Predicted Change
Can species run faster enough to cope with climate change? (e.g.: 500m elevation change)
Kenya Marathon runner
Chinese flyer man
Benchmark Site: Xishuangbanna(Total area: 19,200km2, Xishuangbanna National Nature Reserve)
XishuangbannaLanduse Change 2002 -2010
Expansion of Forest
Expansion of Rubber
Loss of swidden-fallow succession
Loss of Agricultural Land
XishuangbannaLanduse Change Dynamics and Tree Cover
Using MODIS VCF For Regional Validation of “Global Trees on Farm” Methodology
Tree Cover Analysis Consistent with Landuse Change Analysis
2000-2005
Xishuangbanna PrefectureChina’s Biodiversity Treasure
A vast number of plant and animal species. Biodiversity plays an important role in economy, society, culture, religion. More than 200 species are in rare, endangered and near endangered status.
Expansion of rubber production is a major threat, which increases with climate change. However, conditions in existing protected areas will change drastically by 2050.
MaxEnt; training AUC=0.99; test AUC 0.97 (+/-0.007 SD)
Global habitat suitability for rubbercalculated from the 110 records from GBIF
Rubber is already planted in most areas that we identify as suitable
Benchmark Site:Baoshan
Total area:23,000km2
Gaoligong Mt. National Nature Reserve
Predicting Impact of Climate Change on Biodiversity & Ecosystem services: Baoshan Ecological Forest Monitoring
Changing climatic conditions will impact existing forests, and
associated biodiversity
Protected areas may no longer protect intended
habitats
Temperate Forests and
Higher Altitude Communities Likely
at Risk
Expansion of Tropical Forest
Zones
Gaoligongshan National Nature ReserveBaoshan Prefecture
A Biodiversity Hotspot / UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Approx. 405,500 ha. of highly diverse montane forest with a extraordinary mix of diverse flora and fauna.
The highest areas have been designated as an strict conservation, with no visitors allowed. Climatic conditions in these higher elevation habitats are drastically altered by 2050.
Incorporating adaptation scenarios to predict spatial species distribution of alpine plants
No adaptation, local extinction
Adaptation through range
shift
Local adaptation by physio-
morphological change, or even
speciation
Adaptation scenarios
1. Does alpine plants shift upward under warming temperature in SW China?
2. If yes, what is the rate of range shift to corresponding climate change?
3. If not, what are the adaptation strategies?
Focal plants: Rhododendron spp.
Climate envelope models
Two ways to design linkages for climate change
New way: corridors for diverse
land facets
The “old” (2005) way: linked dynamic
models
Facet: One of the flat polished surfaces cut on a
gemstone… perform no better than chance (Beale et al. 2008. PNAS 104:14908
P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010
Land facet: a landscape polygon of relatively uniform topography and soil
Wessels et al. 1999. Biological Conservation
Land facets as drivers of biodiversity
Plants & animals are (and will be) a function of:
Climate
The state-factor model of ecosystems.Hans Jenny (1941); Amundson & Jenny (1997)
Soil type
Insolation
Topographic position
Elevation
?
These variables define land facets.
Distribution of plants & animals
Land facets will interact with future climate to
support new assemblages of plants and animals.
“Conserve the arenas of biological activity rather than the temporary occupants of
those arenas.”(Hunter et al. 1988)
The approach should identify a continuous strand of each land facet, and a strand with high diversity of facets.
These will help plants & animals shift their ranges as climate change
P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010 Conservation Biology
Examples of land facets
• mid-elevation, steep ridges with rocky soils• low-elevation, high-insolation (sunny) flat areas with thick soils
If good soil maps are lacking, facets can be defined solely on topographic variables.
Conserving the arenas, not the actors: land facets as biodiversity surrogates in planning for climate changeP. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010, Conservation Biology
Join All CorridorsAdd a riparian corridor if needed
Many soil maps are not useful.If needed, use presence of water or riparian plants to map a “moist soil facet”
Facet A CorridorFacet B CorridorFacet C CorridorCorridor with interspersed facets
P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010, Conservation Biology
Advantages of using land facets to define corridors
• Useful where no vegetation maps exist.
• No bias to include “data-rich” areas in the design.
• Not subject to error propagation from linked, highly uncertain models.
• Not subject to error compounding from projecting 50-100 years into the future. P. BEIER & B. BROST, 2010, Conservation Biology
Yunnan Province, ChinaAnnual Net Primary Productivity (NPP)
Annual net primary productivity (NPP) averaged over a period from 2000 to 2006, based on MOD17 – MODIS Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production estimates derived from satellite remote sensing data at a resolution of 250m2
(Running et al., 2005).
Projected NPP in 2050 is calculated based on increase (or decrease) of zonal areas.
ResultsCan expect significant climatic changeCan expect significant impact on ecosystem and species / productivityCan expect species and ecosystems shift Hotspots of change/ change-ecotones identified High risk ecotypes identified
Implications for Environmental MonitoringNeed to consider the impact of climate change on monitoring and conservation designTarget climate vulnerable ecotypes and speciesLandscape approach for climate change adaptation