JARI Roundtable at Shanghai
2008.1.19
Approach to Energy and E i t l P blEnvironmental Problems
in Asiain Asia
Tadayoshi HayashiJ A t bil R h I tit tJapan Automobile Research Institute
1
Motor Vehicles in Asia OutlookOutlook in 2030,China will stand first position
Japan, India, Thailand and Indonesia follow suit
2
Vehicle polluting and Environmental Polices(Environmental issues caused by Motor vehicles)
(11)
(Environmental issues caused by Motor vehicles)(1) 1951 Inspection & Maintenance start(2) 1970 Detect of health hazard Photochemical smog(3) 1971 starting unleaded gasoline sale ( )
(10)(9)
(8)
(7)
(3) 1971 starting unleaded gasoline sale(4) 1973 Air Pollution Control Act(5) 1978 Emission control (Japanese's Muskie's low)(6) 1992 Control of NOx emission(7) 1997 L t l ti (Di l)
(6)
(7) 1997 Long term regulation (Diesel)(8) 2000 Emission regulation (Gasoline)(9) 2002 Control of NOx and PM(10) 2005 New long term regulation (Gasoline & Diesel) (6)(10) 2005 New long term regulation (Gasoline & Diesel)(11) 2009 Post New regulation (Gasoline & Diesel )
(5)
(4)(3)
(2)
(1)
4
History of Japan's Emission Regulations
(Gasoline Passenger Cars)100
( g )
COCO
100
5050%
60%
45%
Mode change (10→10‐15)
0
100
45%5%
75% M d h
1.6% (0.8%)
HCHC59%
75%
48%
8%
Mode change(10→10‐15)
50
2.6% (1 3%)0
100
8%
Mode change(10→10‐15)
* IW ≤ 1,000kg
IW > 1 000kg
2.6% (1.3%)
NOxNOx0
(10→10 15)
39%
70%
8%20%
27%
IW > 1,000kg
50
2.6% (1.3%)
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000
2005
* 100% = Emission volume without regulations * IW = Equivalent inertia mass5
Japan's Effort for Air Quality I tImprovement
* Effective combination of emission/fuel regulations.* Air quality improving or stable despite expanding vehicle fleet.* Effective combination of emission/fuel regulations.* Air quality improving or stable despite expanding vehicle fleet.q y p g p p gq y p g p p g
National Average Measurement National Average MeasurementHCCO
Residential area measurementResidential area measurement
'68 CO control '70 HC control
'73 CO HC NOx control
'78 Japanese's Muskie's low
'00 New Short -Term Reg '73 HC control
Source: “Air Pollution Report, 2005", Ministry of the Environment
73 CO,HC,NOx control g 73 HC control
'05 New Long -Term Reg
6
Japan's Effort for Air Quality I tImprovement
* Effective combination of emission/fuel regulations.* Air quality improving or stable despite expanding vehicle fleet.* Effective combination of emission/fuel regulations.* Air quality improving or stable despite expanding vehicle fleet.
National Average MeasurementNational Average Measurement
NO2 PM (particulate matter)
Residential area measurement
Residential area measurement
'86 diesel vhl reg
'05 New Long-Term Reg
'90 diesel NOx reg
'78 diesel vhl reg'74 diesel vhl reg ‘94 diesel PM reg
Stricter '97 diesel NOx PM reg
‘96 Gasoline sulfur 100ppm
‘05 Gasoline sulfur 50ppm
'76 Diesel sulfur500ppm
'03 Diesel sulfur 50 ppm
'05 Diesel sulfur10 ppm Source: "Ministry of the Environment
Stricter 97 diesel NOx-PM reg
‘07 Gasoline sulfur 10ppm
05 Gasoline sulfur 50ppm
7
Motorization in Asia 1945-2010
Emission Regulation for Passenger car
In Asia, we need effort for emission reduction from vehicles
J
ChinaEuro 2 : 2004Euro 3 : 2009
Euro 4
JapanEuro 3 : 2009Euro 4 : 2008 (Beijing)
Indonesia E 2 2005
Euro 3
Chi
Euro 2 : 2005
Japan 1978 (Euro 3 level)2000 (Euro 4 level)
Euro 3 Euro 2
E 2 China
Indonesia
( ) Euro 2
Euro 2
8
Air Pollution in Asian Large CitiesA di t WHO t (2002)
Latest Year(2002-2005)
According to WHO report (2002), 2/3 of death by air pollution is concentrated in Asia.
Latest Year(2002-2005)
City CO NO2 PM10 O3 SOx LeadJakarta 2004 E C E C D DKuala Lumpur 2004 C D D C B N.A.Manila 2002 C E E D C BBangkok 2005 A D D B C BHo Chi Minh City 2002 C E E N.A. E EBeijing 2005 E E D N.A. C N.A.Shanghai 2005 N A E D N A E N A
1990City CO NO2 PM10 O3 SOx Lead
Jakarta 1990 C B D C C C
Shanghai 2005 N.A. E D N.A. E N.A.
Jakarta 1990 C B D C C CKuala Lumpur 1990 C C B C B CManila 1990 D D D D B CBangkok 1990 B B E B B CHo Chi Minh City 1990 N A N A N A N A N A N A
A 50 % below from WHO standardB Within WHO standard
Ho Chi Minh City 1990 N.A. N.A N.A N.A. N.A N.ABeijing 1990 D D E C A B
C Within 200 % over from WHO standardD Within 300 % over WHO standardE 300 % over from WHO standard
Sources: official site of AQM,WB,ADB9
Time Schedule for Emission Regulation and Fuel QualityEmission Regulation and Fuel Quality
( Gasoline Passenger Vehicle)
Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Indonesia Euro2
Target: Euro 4Target: Euro 2
ULG
ULG2000
5000 1000 500Malaysia Euro1 Euro2 Euro3 Euro4
3000 500ULG
2000
ULG
Philippines
Euro 1 Euro2 Euro31000 500
Thailand Euro1Euro2 Euro3 Euro4500 501996
ULG2000
ULG
500 50SingaporeEuro 1 Euro3
500 150Vietnam Euro 3Euro4 (Tentative)
Euro 2
Euro 2
E i i l l d i t f lf d ti
( )10000 5000 500
Target : Target year agreed by AMEICC2004
Emission level and requirement of sulfur reductionEuro2 : < 500 ppmEuro3 : <150 ppmEuro4 : < 50 ppm
: Unleaded GasolineULG
10
Policy Options for Emission Reduction from Vehicles
EmissionEmissionEmission Regulation
F l
Guarantee
Fuel Fuel Quality Regulation
Vehicle MaintenanceRegistration SystemRegistration SystemInspection System
Quality ManagementQuality ManagementFuel Quality MonitoringAir Quality Monitoring
11
Purpose for Inspection & Maintenance i J
P t
in Japan
Reduce fuel consumption …
PreventAir pollution
Effect for in-used Vehicles
SecureSafety
Reduction of Road Traffic Accidents
12
Effects of Maintenance & Inspection
(Clean Bus program:Indonesia)
Emission reduction (on road vs after service) as result from PUTE Activityy
49 % 53 % 61 %
5 % of Fuel saving potential13
Producer, importer, refinerOil quality guarantee law” in Japan (1996~)
HeavyDuty of quality verification(self analysis, request to appointed institute)
Analysis request
ypunishment
Voluntary check before distribution
METI
y q
inspectionAppointed analysis i i
distribution
Analysis request
institute
Service stations( abourt 48,000 places)
P hibiti f lli i f i il
Voluntary check
If SS request analysis every 10 days, it costs ¥100,000/year
Subsidy for quality test¥2.9 billion/ yearFrom special account for oil
Prohibition of selling inferior oilQuality analysis dutyQuality report duty
Heavypunishment
http://www.meti.go.jp/feedback/data/ikisf68j.htmlhttp://www.ylw.mmtr.or.jp/~ooshima/k030516.htm
14
Evaluation Method based on Survey f P li t I Ai Q litfor Policy to Improve Air Quality
Survey of Real Vehicle Usage Air Quality
Simulation
Model of Typical Driving Cycle
Collection of data Analysis
Problem Analysis
Objective Analysis
PolicySelection
Evaluation of Policy Effectiveness
Proposal for Better Air Quality Plan
15
The Share of CO2 emissions in T t t i J (2005)Transport sector in Japan (2005)
Airs
Rail
Ships
Residential
Energy Industries7%
35% TrucksTransport
22%
Residential14%
53%Car
Commercial20%
Industry39% 53%39%
▼ Ab t 22% f CO2 i i t t ti▼ About 22% of CO2 emissions are transport section▼ About half is from passenger cars
17
Comparison of Energy EfficiencyInput primary energy 1km driving (10・15 Mode)
単位:MJ/kmVehicles Typeput p a y e e gy d g ( 0 5 ode)
FCHV current
0 1 2 3
FCHV future
GasolineGasoline
Gasoline HV
DieselDiesel
Diesel HV
CNGCNG
BEV
PHEV ???FCHV current:"hydrogen station" and "FCHV" data are calculated by using
JHFC demonstration top, while other data are calculated by
PHEV ???
published top. FCHV future:calculated by using FC Stock Sys future efficiency 60% and
published top. Electric power sources: Japan MixJapan Mix 18
Global Warming/Energyg gy• Gasoline passenger car
Improvement of efficiency– Improvement of efficiency• Diesel passenger car
– The environmental performance of diesel passenger cars is expected to improve.Electric Powered Vehicle is a KEY!• Biomass
– Carbon neutral fuel ?
Electric Powered Vehicle is a KEY!
– Food Plobrem• Hybrid system• Hybrid system
– Application to wide category of vehiclesPl i H b id/BEV– Plug in Hybrid/BEV
• Fuel Cell Vehicle 19
Necessity of a Long-term ScenarioChoice of future automotive technology and motor fuel should be discussed together with motor fuel should be discussed together with overall time frames, whole economy, and social requests for decades
National Energy Target Toward 2030
social requests for decades.
National Energy Target Toward 2030Improvement of national energy Reduction of oil-dependency inefficiency by 30% transportation sector down to
80%37%
Improvement/ GD
P
15937%
Improvement/ GD
P
159 p
30%Improvement
ergy
Con
sum
ptio
n In
dex
/
100
70
p
30%Improvement
ergy
Con
sum
ptio
n In
dex
/
100
70
FY1973(Result)
FY2003(Result)
FY2030(Target)Fi
nal E
ne
FY1973(Result)
FY2003(Result)
FY2030(Target)Fi
nal E
ne
FY1973 FY2000 FY2030FY1973 FY2000 FY2030
20It needs a long-term scenario.
The Next-Generation Vehicle and Fuel Initiative
Strategy 1 Performance improvement and d li i f
Strategy 2 Strategic technology
d l tBattery decline in cost of
batteries, which is the key for next-
Hydrogen
/F l C ll
development towards the
realization of the ltimate clean cargeneration vehicles /Fuel Cell ultimate clean car
Cl di l th tStrategy 3Clean diesel
Clean diesel that contributes
as a countermeasure against CO
Realization of technical innovation of cellulosic ethanol
Strategy 4
diesel against CO2 that does not compete with foods
Biofuel
Strategy 5
For realizing the world’s most friendly motorized society
Strategy 5The concept of the world’s most friendly motorized society
For realizing the world s most friendly motorized society
A Long Term ScenarioA Long Term Scenarion
Fuel Cell Vehicle
Em
issi
o
Wide Range Implementation of Hybrid System
of L
ow E y y
Electric Powered Vehicle
Innovations in Automobile Technologies
Deg
ree
Improvement of
Innovations in Automobile TechnologiesEx. Fuel Injection, After-treatment, Combustion
D Improvement of Internal Combustion Engine
Utilization of New FuelsEx. CNG, GTL, DME
Biomass
2010? 2020? 2030?Year
Biomass
22