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Merrill Lynch Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference Global Transportation Conference New York, June 13 - 14, 2007
Transcript
Page 1: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

Merrill LynchMerrill LynchGlobal Transportation ConferenceGlobal Transportation Conference

New York, June 13 - 14, 2007

Page 2: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

22

Low OperatingCosts

Low OperatingCosts

UndisputableBetter ServiceUndisputableBetter Service

CompetitivePrices

CompetitivePrices

Sustainable Strategyto Maintain Market

Leadershipand Profitability

TAM is a low cost company with better service at competitive prices

Page 3: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

33

Previousperiod

Currentperiod

J F M AM J J A SO N D J F M AM J J A S ON D J FM A M J J A S ON D J F MA M8085

9095

100

105110115

120125

130

Domestic Market - Variation

Source: ANAC

Accum. market growth2006 ~12%

The domestic market growth still strong in 2007, reaching 14% in the first 5 months of the year

Accum. market growth2005 ~19%

Accum. market growth2004 ~12%

Accum. market growth2007 ~14%

2004 2005 2006 2007

Page 4: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

44

33,0%35,8%

47,8% 49,1%43,5%

2003 2004 2005 2006 Jan - Mai

TAM 49,7%

GOL 40,8%

Other3,2%

BRA2,2%Varig

4,1%

We have been domestic market leaders since 2003, ending May with 49,7%

Domestic Market Share - May/07Domestic Market Share - May/07

Domestic Market Share (RPK’s)Domestic Market Share (RPK’s)

Source: ANAC

BRA 3,4%

Varig 4,6%

Other 5,1%

TAM 48,5%

GOL 38,5%

Domestic Market Share – 1Q07Domestic Market Share – 1Q07

Page 5: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

55

Previousperiod

Market

TAM

J F M AM J J A SO N D J F M AM J J A S ON D J FM A M J J A S ON D J FM A M40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

International Market - Variation(vs previous year)

Source: ANAC

The international market (among the Brazilian carriers) has been diminishing…

Accum. market growth2004 ~8%

Accum. market growth2005 ~7%

Accum. market

decrease 2006 ~30%

Accum. marketdecrease 2007 ~33%

Acum TAM 2006~41%

Acum TAM 2007~82%

Acum TAM 2005~40%Acum. TAM 2004

~30%

2004 2005 2006 2007

Page 6: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

66

12,00% 14,3%

37,3%

65,2%

18,8%

2003 2004 2005 2006 Jan - Apr

TAM 72,4%

GOL 13,7%

Varig 10,1%

Other 3,9%

International Market Share– May/07International Market Share– May/07

International Market ShareInternational Market Share

Since July 2006, we are international market leaders among the Brazilian companies

Source: ANAC

International Market Share – 1Q07International Market Share – 1Q07

TAM 60,9%

Varig12,1%

GOL 17,9%

Other9,1%

Page 7: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

77

86

103

287

1,188

158

157

506

1,093

1Q06 1Q07

1,664

1,913

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Gross Revenues (R$ M)

Dom.Pax

Int.Pax

CargoOther

15%

Domestic passenger revenue growth 8%

RPK growth 22%ASK growth 22%

International passenger revenue growth 76%

RPK growth 64%ASK growth 78%

Cargo revenue growth 52%Other revenue growth 85%

Increase of sales of Loyalty Program points and expired tickets compensated by the sub-leasing

Strong revenue growth quarter over quarter

Page 8: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

88

Our price differential to the second player decreased to 5%

GOLTAM

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1Q0715

20

25

30

35

Yield scheduled domesticR$ Cents

GAP 60% 30% 18% 13% 15% 14% 5%

Note: Gol’s yield da GOL grossed up 1.05x to include taxes

Page 9: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

99

1Q061Q06

19.8

20.2

68.4

31.0

14.3

77.5

18.5

8.5

4Q064Q06

19.3

17.5

69.7

26.4

16.6

73.7

22.6

10.6

1Q071Q07

16.7

14.5

69.3

22.0

14.1

71.3

19.8

9.6

1Q06 vs 1Q07

1Q06 vs 1Q07

-15.4%

-28.2%

0.8 p.p.

-29.0%

-1.5%

-6.2 p.p.

7.2%

13.6%

4Q06 vs 1Q07

4Q06 vs 1Q07

-13.3%

-17.1%

-0.3 p.p.

-16.7%

-15.2%

-2.4 p.p.

-12.4%

-8.7%

Our total RASK reduced 15%, mainly because of the domestic yield decrease of 29%

RASK Total1

RASK Scheduled Domestic2

LF Scheduled Domestic

Yield ScheduledDomestic3

RASK Scheduled International2

LF ScheduledInternational

Yield ScheduledInternational3 (em R$)Yield ScheduledInternational3 (em USD)

1 Includes charter, cargo and Other revenues, net of taxes2 Net of taxes3 Gross of taxes

Page 10: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

1010

CASKex-fuel

1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07

17.4318.69 18.43

16.9815.92

0

5

10

15

20

Total CASK (BR GAAP - R$ cents)

1Q06 vs 1Q07

-7.5%

-8.7%

...and our CASK decreased 8.7% compared to 1Q06

Page 11: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

1111

RASKCASK

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1T0715

20

25

RASK/CASK (R$ Cents)BR GAAP

EBITMargin

Spread

-7.1%

-1.1

-0.9%

-0.2

6.5%

1.4

7.5%

1.5

13.6%

2.8

4.8%

0.9

The strong decline in revenue decreased the spread (RASK – CASK)…

Page 12: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

1212

1Q06 1Q07

376

340

0

100

200

300

400

EBITDAR(BR GAAP - R$ M)

1Q06 1Q07

189

88

0

50

100

150

200

EBIT(BR GAAP - R$ M)

Margin over Net Revenue

1Q06 1Q07

127

59

0

50

100

150

Net Income(BR GAAP - R$ M)

-9%-53% -53%

24%

19%12%

5%3%

8%

…reducing our margins in BR GAAP…

Page 13: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

1313

1Q06 1Q07

373

331

0

100

200

300

400

EBITDAR (US GAAP - R$ M)

1Q06 1Q07

238

146

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

EBIT(US GAAP - R$ M)

24%

15%

8%

18%

1Q06 1Q07

268

138

0

40

80

120

160

200

240

280

Net Income(US GAAP - R$ M)

8%

-11%

17%

...and US GAAP

Margin over Net Revenue

-49%-39%

Page 14: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

1414

BR GAAP Leasing IncomeTaxes

Others US GAAP

59.2

119.3

-44.5

3.9 137.9

0

50

100

150

200

Net Profit Reconciliationto US GAAP 39 aircrafts are reclassified as

capital leases as per SFAS nº13

39 aircrafts are reclassified as capital leases as per SFAS nº

13

The main difference between BR and US GAAP is the accounting treatment of aircraft leasing

Page 15: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

1515

1Q06 1Q07

0.85

0.39

Earnings per shareBR GAAP (R$)

1Q06 1Q07

1.80

0.92

Earnings per shareUS GAAP (R$)

Our earnings per share decreased

-54% -49%

Page 16: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

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Our foreign revenues increased, reducing the mismatch in currencies

20%

80%

33%

67%

1Q06 1Q07

100% 100%

0

20

40

60

80

100%

Revenues(Passenger + Cargo)

DomesticInternational

Approximately 50% of our costs

(including fuel) are exposed to foreign

currencies

Approximately 50% of our costs

(including fuel) are exposed to foreign

currencies

Page 17: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

1717

Since our second public share offer, our ADR had an increase in valuation of 75%

Accumulated variation since March 10, 2006

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

10-mar-06 11-jun-07

TAMM4 IBOVESPA DOW JONES ADR TAM

Page 18: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

1818

Average domestic market share above 50%Average domestic load factor at approximately 70%Aircraft utilization per day (block hour) higher than 13 hoursReduction of 7% in total CASK ex-fuel in BR GAAP yoyOpportunity in the international market

Third frequency to ParisInauguration of two new international long haul frequencies

Market demand growth from 10% to 15% (in RPK terms)

Guidance 2007Guidance 2007

TAMTAM

MarketMarket

Our expectations for 2007, disclosed in December 2006, remain the same

13.6%*

1Q071Q07

• Since January• Milan since

March

49.1%*

71.5%*13,0

7.5%

* Jan – May Accumulated

Page 19: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

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Domestic Market 2007Domestic Market 2007 International Market 2007International Market 2007

~30% increase in ASKsAt least an additional 3 destinationsStrengthening of international gateways for domestic market

GuarulhosGaleão

Increasing of frequency on main domestic markets

BrasíliaCongonhasConfins

Implementing overhub flights: new city-pairs

~60-70% increase in ASKs

Additional daily frequency to Paris beginning in January

New flight to Milan in 1S07

Additional longhaul frequency or destination to be disclosed

Strengthening of Latin American presence, both frequencies and destinations

In 2007, we will be expanding both frequencies anddestinations

Page 20: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

2020

Due to international market opportunity, we are strengthening our international partnerships...

Signature of several MOUs:Code-share with TAP serving several destinations in Portugal and integration of TAM’s Programa Fidelidade with TAP’s Programa Victoria. Operations starting in July;Code-share with LAN with unlimited seat sales within South America: Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Peru, Venezuela and integration with LAN’s PASS;Code-share with United Airlines serving several destinations in the USA (strong hubs in Chicago and Washington) and integration with Mileage Plus;Code-share with Lufthansa serving the German market – connecting point of flights to Europe, Asia, Middle East and Africa. Integration with Miles & More;

Page 21: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

2121

3

15

88

6

4

16

103

4

20

106

4

20

112

6

20

115

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

112

123130

136141

0

50

100

150

Total Fleet

F100

Airbusnarrow-body

Airbuswide-body

MD11B777

...increasing our fleet in 3 wide-body aircraft in 2007 to long haul destinations

Page 22: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

2222

Fleet and networkFleet and network Distribution costsDistribution costs OverheadOverhead

Increase of block hours to over 13 hours per day per aircraft in 2007

6 extra seats in the A319/320 fleet

Increase in direct sales through:

Site improvementFare bundlesCall center outsourcingNew means of payment

Insourcing of representativesAdjusting indirect sales commissions to higher % on offpeak flights

Outsourcing of non-core activities

Redefinition of service standards

Review of spans&layers in the hierarquy

Implementation of new automated processes

Improved sourcing capabilities

Our cost targets are aggressive, but the roadmap is already laid out

In implementationImplemented

Page 23: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

2323

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

8.0 13.0 18.0 23.0 28.0 33.0 38.0

2006 EBITDAR Margin (%)

Cas

h C

osts

($ c

ents

/ASK

)

We continue among the most profitable companies in the world

Source: Public Reports of December 31, 2006 (except for Air Asia and Malaysia, which refer to 2005 figures)

Page 24: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

2424

Investor Relations

Phone: +55 (11) 5582-9715

Fax: +55 (11) 5582-8149

e-mail: [email protected]

Website: www.tam.com.br/ri

Contact

Page 25: Apresentação Merrill Lynch Global Transportation Conference

2525

Information and ProjectionThis notice may contain estimates for future events. These estimates merely reflect the expectations of the

Company’s management, and involve risks and uncertainties. The Company is not responsible for investment operations or decisions taken based on information contained in this communication. These estimates are subject to changes without prior notice.

This material has been prepared by TAM S.A. (“TAM“ or the “Company”) includes certain forward-looking statements that are based principally on TAM’s current expectations and on projections of future events and financial trends that currently affect or might affect TAM’s business, and are not guarantees of future performance. They are based on management’s expectations that involve a number of business risks and uncertainties, any of each could cause actual financial condition and results of operations to differ materially from those set out in TAM’s forward-looking statements. TAM undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forwardlooking statements.

This material is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Likewise it does not give and should not be treated as giving investment advice. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. It should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.

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