April 10, 2007
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Reno, NevadaMay 8-12, 2011
Presented by:Jaesup Lee, Virginia Department of TransportationPaul Agnello, Virginia Department of TransportationPatrick Coleman, AECOM
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Overview
1. Project under consideration
2. Potential travel markets for new facility
3. Forecasting tool (soon to be) available
4. Potential Forecasting Methodology
5. Questions
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Proposed Project
South of US 17 in Spotsylvania County to just south of Route 234 in Prince William County
Proposed to operate as HOV (and Bus)/HOT facility
Overlaps/connects with I-95 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes project (to DC area)
Source: USDOT/FHWA/VDOT, Environmental Assessment,I-95 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes Project, August 2010
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
The project, con’t.
Two-lane, reversible, limited access express route in I-95 median
Buses, HOV-3, and motorcycles travel free
Electronic tolling (EZPASS) for other users – rate could vary by time of day, travel speed, etc.
Conceptual operations plan:
Midnight to 10 am – northbound
10 am to noon – closed for switchover
Noon to 10 pm – southbound
10 pm to midnight – closed for switchoverSource: USDOT/FHWA/VDOT, Environmental Assessment,I-95 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes Project, August 2010
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Potential Travel Market- Person Trips to DC Core
Downtown DC Rest of DCAround
Pentagon TotalHBW 5,000 1,500 2,900 9,400HBShop 300 0 0 300HBO 0 400 40 440NHB 1,300 2,200 1,000 4,500Total 6,600 4,100 3,940 14,640
Source: 2009 NHTS Virginia Add On Version 2
I-95
Project
Year 2009 Average Weekday Person Trips
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Potential Travel Market - Travel to DC Core by Transit
Virginia Railway Express (VRE)
Fredericksburg Line
Potomac and Rappahannock Transportation Commission (PRTC) Commuter Buses
R1 Dale City 1,730
R4 Montclair 1,124
R2 Lake Ridge 1,461
Pr. William Metro Direct 1,230
R6 Rosslyn/Ballston 1,068
R5 Route 1/South Rt 1 797
Total 7,410
Source: 2007 VRE On Board Survey
Source: 2008 MWCOG Regional Bus Survey
Other private commuter bus operators
Fredericksburg 1,103Leeland Road 749Brooke 382Quantico 387Rippon 478Woodbridge 486Lorton 412Franconia/Springfield 224Alexandria 511Crystal City 865L'Enfant 1,274Union Station 714Total 7,584
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Slug Travel Market (We’re not talking Mollusks)!
Source: www.sluglines.com
Unique to DC area (and maybe SF)
Casual carpools
Pick up/drop off at designated areas
Free ride, drivers get HOV access
“Slug” coined by bus operators – similar to counterfeit tokens
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Slugs, con’t.
TimeSlug Drivers
*Slug Riders
*Slug Line VP Drivers VP RidersMartz Bus
RidersWhite Bus
RidersQuicks Bus
Riders
Fred Shuttle Riders
Route 610/Stafford
4:30-9:00 AM 360 78 643 21 57 142 26 16 86:00-9:00 PM 328 63 550 15 50 94 0 0 8Mine Road/Stafford
4:30-9:00 AM 235 55 427 22 45 4 4 21 5096:00-9:00 PM 187 44 303 6 15 4 4 20 396Route 234/Dumfries
4:30-9:00 AM 376 62 510 25 119 333 0 53 6326:00-9:00 PM 340 56 449 14 74 149 0 51 553Route 17/Fredericksburg
4:30-9:00 AM 146 29 202 16 34 80 46 3 86:00-9:00 PM 120 22 139 1 2 23 0 0 7Route 3 Gordon Road/Fredericksburg
4:30-9:00 AM 77 20 141 16 48 19 26 34 1196:00-9:00 PM 43 9 73 2 6 0 10 23 91
*Slug Riders = slug passengers already in vehicle when arrived at lot
*Slug Line = number of arrivals to slug line
All numbers shown above are averages for 3 days - 11/16/2010, 11/17/2010 and 11/18/2010
Source: SIR/VDOT, Survey of Northern Virginia Sluggers, January 2011
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
The Tool - Fredericksburg Area MPO (FAMPO) model
Current Version (3)
Assigns highway trips to three time periods (AM Peak, PM Peak, Off Peak)
Models HOT lanes using a diversion curve from I-394 MnPass project
Contains a process to estimate Virginia Railway Express (VRE) commuter rail trips from Fredericksburg to Washington, DC area
No full mode choice
Version 4 under development
Part of VDOT Major Models Update plan
Updated trip generation/distribution using NHTS Virginia Add On
Final highway assignment in four time periods (AM Peak, Midday, PM Peak, Night)
Revised volume-delay functions (and forecast tolling methodology)
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
More FAMPO model enhancementsExpanded model area to include the southern Prince William County
region below the Occoquan River.The zones, nodes and links are from the NCRTPB model network (v2.2
with 2191 zones) and renumbered
Select link analysis procedures in the NCRTPB model to obtain the additional trip flows from/to southern Prince William County
Transit networks coded and skim procedures set up for the “regular” transit (FRED buses and VRE feeders) and “commuter” transit (PRTC, MARTZ, QUICK and VRE routes).
Full mode choice modelsInternal trip purposes (FRED Routes)
Commuter (HBW IE) trip purpose (travel on I-95 corridor to DC area)
CUBE Scripts and catalogs consistent with other VDOT models
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Fredericksburg Expanded Model Area
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Updated FredericksburgHighway Network
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Potential Forecasting Methodology
No existing toll facility in immediate area
No available Stated Preference (SP) survey in corridor
Current FAMPO model uses toll diversion curve on experience in Minnesota (SP data from I-394 MnPASS Express Lanes)
New model will use a logit-type assignment based procedure
start with South Florida SP data
addresses differing values of time
constants to capture reliability and other unquantifiable aspects
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Toll Choice Model from South Florida
County Purpose
Time Coefficient
Cost Coefficient
Value of Time ($/hr)
Toll Free Constant
HBW -0.052 -0.372 $8.32 0.697
HBO -0.051 -0.422 $7.17 0.706
NHB -0.056 -0.341 $9.82 0.477
HBW -0.025 -0.141 $10.65 0.5
HBO -0.031 -0.353 $5.33 0.227
NHB -0.043 -0.467 $5.53 0.068
HBW -0.039 -0.25 $9.34 0.23
HBO -0.042 -0.299 $8.41 0.519
NHB -0.03 -0.162 $10.91 0.471
Broward
Miami-Dade
Palm Beach
Source: RSG, Documentation for South Florida SP Travel Survey and Toll Mode Choice Models, July 2006
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
$5 toll comparison between MSP and South Florida
Illustrates differing VOTs by region
For 20 minute savings 20% toll in MSP but 30% in South Florida
Source: AECOM
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Potential Implementation in Fredericksburg
Coefficients:
Transfer Palm Beach coefficients to the FAMPO model
Adjust cost coefficients to reflect differences in income between Palm Beach County and Fredericksburg
Examine Dulles Toll Road SP survey for more localized VOTs
Constants:
Not transferable due to unique nature of travel in South Florida
No existing facility in Fredericksburg for calibration
Use a relatively close Peer facility to do a simple “calibration” in a spreadsheet
Careful testing to ensure any modeled results are reasonable
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Dulles Greenway – potential peer facility
12.5 mile privately owned toll road in Northern Virginia
Connects end of Dulles (Airport) Toll Road with the Leesburg Bypass (U.S. 15/SR 7)
Best regional candidate because of “base” and “congestion management” toll rates and electronic (EZPASS) discounts similar to many HOT lanes
Travel Forecasting Methodology for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia13th TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
Questions?