Economic Indicators:

An Update for the 7 Rivers Region

I’m the self declared truth police here to

expose bipartisan hyperbole. The views

expressed today are my own, however

they probably do not reflect the views of

the sponsors, my employer, or anyone

else.

Disclaimer:

Began late summer 2009

Expect it to be slow.

The Recovery

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%

Construction

Manufacturing

Information

Business Services

Wholesale

Transportation and Utilities

Mining

Retail

Finance

Leisure

Other

Government

Education

Heath care

Net Job Changes as % of Employment in Sector

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1 7 13 19 25 31 37

Employment Cumulative Decline from NBER Peak

1957

1948

1953

2007

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1 12 23 34

Employment Cumulative Decline from NBER Peak

1990

2001

2007

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

< 5 Weeks

5 to 14 Weeks

15-26 Weeks

>26 Weeks

Unemployment Rate by Duration

Source: BLS

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Percent of unemployed by unemployment duration

< 5 Weeks

5 to 14 Weeks

15 to 26 Weeks

> 26 Weeks

Source: BLS

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jul-67 Jul-74 Jul-81 Jul-88 Jul-95 Jul-02 Jul-09

Median Duration of Unemployment (Weeks)

- 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0

Rising Incomes

Physician Salaries

Prescription Drugs

Government Intervention

Medical Malpractice/Litigation

Which is the most likely cause of rising health care costs...

- 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0

MexicoKorea

PolandSlovak Republic

HungaryGreece

Czech RepublicAustralia

SpainFinlandIreland

SwitzerlandItaly

United KingdomCanada

New ZealandUnited States

SwedenNorwayIcelandAustria

GermanyDenmark

France

2007 Public Health Expenditures as Percent of GDP

Expand Coverage

Increase Access

Cost Controls

Taxes and Fees

Expand Coverage

32 Million more Americans

covered, about half through Medicaid

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

National Compensation Measures as a Share of GDP, NIPA 1960-2006

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Income and Product Accounts, 1960-2006, Tables 1.1.5, 2.1, 6.11B, 6.11C, & 6.11D, 2008.

2006

Wages

Other Fringe Benefits and Payroll Taxes

51.8%

Private Group Health Insurance

0.6%

3.8%

45.6%

4.1%

6.7%

56.3% of GDP

56.4% of GDP

Cost Controls

Independent Medicare Board

Long Term Fiscal Problems

Medicare and Medicaid.

Taxes and Fees

0

25

50

75

100

1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 2013

Top Marginal Tax Rate

Democrats

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Budget Balance as Percentage of GDP

Year Democrats

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Actual Budget Balance with 5 Year OMB Forecasts

The Housing Market

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

Case-Shiller Index of Home Prices

Phoenix

Minneapolis

7 Rivers Region

-

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Total Single Family Listings Sold in the 7 Rivers Region

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

700.00

Jan-59Jan-64Jan-69Jan-74Jan-79Jan-84Jan-89Jan-94Jan-99Jan-04Jan-09

Midwest New Home Starts

Encouraging a culture of innovation and

change.

Innovation

Mark Glendenning,

Inland Label and Marketing Services

Jerry Arndt,

Gundersen Lutheran

Mike Cichanowski,

Wenonah Canoe

Panelists