APRIL Current by Dr. Ravi Agrahari's Classes

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AKSH ACADEMYA Venture of

Dr. Ravi Agrahari’s Classes

GS MODULE (Paper-III)

Current Affairs April2016

CompilationOf

Hindu News PaperTARGET – 2016





INTERNATIONAL NEWS1. Obama, Xi vow to sign Paris accord

2. China to export electricity along the New Silk Road

3. Cameron under pressure to come clean

4. ‘N. Korea tests engine for missile that can target U.S.’

5. U.S., Philippines launch joint patrols in South China Sea

6. Rousseff’s impeachment approved

7. Floating nuclear plants to power China’s artificial islands

8. No ground troops for Syria: Obama

9. ‘U.S. should first stop military exercises’

INDIA AND THE WORLD NEWS1. India-European Union boost strategic partnership as free

trade talks flounder

2. U.S. Act to ‘institutionalise’ defence, trade ties with India

3. China-funded Colombo Port City project continues to faceprotests

4. “Beijing’s ties in South Asia will not harm India”

5. Colombo tries to strike a balance between India, China

6. China, Sri Lanka eye new infra road map to anchor ties

7.

Bangladesh plans to ban ‘terrorist’ Jamaat -e-Islami8. Close ties with India needed for regional stability, says

China

NATIONAL NEWS1. Remains of U.S. WW II troops to be returned during

Carter’s visit

2. H-1B visa applications exceed cap of 85,000

3. U.N. to observe 125th birth anniversary of Ambedkar

4. Search begins for 1922 film on Malabar revolt

5. RCEP draft moots tough curbs on cheap medicines

6. Centre steps in to expedite patent approvals

ECONOMY1. U.P. tops growth in enterprises, jobs

2. India’s gross fiscal deficit to exceed target



3. World figures named in massive offshore tax evasion leak

4. As RBI cuts repo rate, home loans could become cheaper

5. Govt. plans sops for SEZs, small exporters to spurshipments

6. Panama mounts fierce defence of financial sector

7. Why low outgo for drought relief: SC

8. India-EU free trade impasse may end: CII

9. It’s official: India set for an ‘above normal’ monsoon

10. World output faces risk of 3.9 % drop by 2021

11. Law to increase workers’ bonus faces fresh hurdles

12. To push mineral hunt, Govt. to tweak 1967 data-sharingcurbs

13. Bank deposit growth slowed to a five-decade low in FY16

14. Stick to fiscal consolidation, IMF tells India

15. Asian economies at greater risk now: ADB report

16. Services corner bulk of FDI inflows

17. Trading bloc to India: Cut tariffs or exit FTA talks

18. Slowdown hits services sector

19. Govt. casts Aadhaar net wider at banks

20. New mining exploration policy moots incentives

21. RBI to ease registration process for NBFCs

22. FDI inflows hit record $51 bn in April-February lastfiscal

23. ‘GDP growth is not creating enough jobs’

24. Analysts grow more bullish on oil, OPEC poses nothreat to rebalancing

25. Don’t cut CBU tariffs to sign FTAs: automakers

POLITY AND GOVERNANCE1. Even President’s decision can go terribly wrong, says HC

2. Uttarakhand HC sets aside President’s Rule

3. Legal system too expensive for most Indians: Survey

HISTORY1. ‘Pulakeshin’s famed victory over Harsha was in 618 A.D.’



CULTURE1. 12th century Buddhist inscription discovered

2. Stolen Buddhist sculpture returned to Pakistan govt.

SOCIAL ISSUES1. 400-year-old ban on women at Shani temple goes

2. Most of rural India still opts for open defecation: NSSreport

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY1. NHRC notice on ‘go -slow’ promise

2. Triple sunset: New planet with 3-star system found

3. Universe may be full of monster black holes

4. New technology helps understand genomes

5. Proof to link Zika virus with brain defects

6. ISRO to launch 21 satellites in one shot

7. Last satellite of India’s regional navigation systemlaunched into orbit

8. Skin cells transformed to suit heart and brain

DEFENCE1. World military spending up in 2015, India in sixth position

2.

Militaries of India, U.S. to share facilities ENVIRONMENT, ECOLOGY & BIODIVERSITY

1. Is the mighty Ganga drying up?

2. Ballast water bringing invasive species to coasts

3. Govt. notifies new rules on waste management

3. ‘Earth could turn hotter than previously thought’

4. Big cat population up by 690

5. Rising heat linked to more reef bleaching

6. 175 countries sign Paris Agreement

7. Rare primate sighted in Arunachal Pradesh

8. Panama disease stalks banana cultivation in Kerala

9. Amazon surprises with new reef system

HEALTH



1. One in five adults may be obese by 2025: study

2. New front opens in war on superbugs

3. Health cover: Too little, too scarce

CONFERENCES AND SUMMITS1. Focus on safeguards framework

AWARDS1. AP wins Public Service Pulitzer for Asia series

2. Japanese honour for N.K. Singh

MISCELLANEOUS1. Zaha Hadid, trailblazing architect, dies of heart attack

2. Jenny Diski, chronicler of madness, dead

OP-ED1. Biodiversity

Rare frogs and the circle of life

2. Tata’s growth Tata to Corus

3. Drug licensing Who will heal our drug industry?

4. Pathankot attack The Pathankot paradigm

5. Medical council of India Medical Council needs urgent therapy

Reviving a good idea

6. Kolkata Bridge collapse Accidents and criminal liability

7. Islamic state Understanding the Islamic State

8. Nuclear Security Summit The need to pre-empt nuclear terrorism

The road not taken

9. Criminal Justice Towards restorative criminal justice

10. West Asia Policy A balancing act in Riyadh

Tilting towards the Saudis





How to be free of caste

The fatal accident of birth

The prescience of Babasaheb

27. Tiger population rise Keeping tigers in the green zone

28. Effects of north The chill wind from the North

29. LEMOA A firm handshake, not an embrace

Realism of the second year

30. Economy Green shoots? Maybe, but they need watering

How to better the ‘new mediocre’

31. Zika Virus More clarity on Zika’s dangers

32. Presidential poll in Peru The waning of the pink tide

33. Cricket and morality Sloshing in the dugout

34. Obama Doctrine

All about the Obama Doctrine35. Maritime security

Oceanic opportunities

36. IPL Ban in Maharashtra The power of symbolism

37. Mallya case Lessons from the Mallya case

38. Spring meeting World Bank and IMF Are negative rates the new normal?

39. Komagata Maru Incident The question of forgiveness

40. Trade facilitation and trade enforcement act 2015 of US Trading charges

41. Climate change Hotter, longer, deadlier summers



42. India-U.S defence cooperation One handshake among many

43. PF account reforms Rollback redux

44. Jammu & Kashmir violence Reasons and excuses for violence

45. Indo-Pakistan Ties The problem of making peace

Another missed opportunity

46. U.S-Saudi Ties Growing cracks in the U.S.-Saudi alliance

47. President rule in Uttarakhand On going beyond Bommai

48. Maharashtra Protection of People from Social Boycott (Prevention,Prohibition and Redressal) Act of 2016

Laws that make us human

49. Brexit To Brexit or not to Brexit

50. Paris agreement Building on the Paris Agreement

51. Environmental degradation

First damage, then fix? Water will continue to be scarce

52. Environmental degradation A desperate situation

53. Kohinoor Apathy towards antiquities

54. Kohinoor A drought of action

55. Visa to terrorist The curious case of Mr. Isa’s visa

56. Malegaon attack The Malegaon reminder

57. KG Basin Scam The KG basin scam — part II

58. U.S Fed



Fed affords RBI wiggle room

59. Reservation A misguided surrender

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

1. Obama, Xi vow to sign Paris accordU.S. President Barack Obama and President Xi Jinping of China said on Thursday thatthey would sign the Paris Agreement on climate change on April 22, the first day the UNaccord will be open for government signatures.

Officials cast the announcement as a statement of joint resolve by the world’s twolargest greenhouse gas polluters, even though there are doubts about whether the U.S.can meet its obligations under the agreement.

In February, the Supreme Court temporarily blocked an Obama administrationregulation to curb greenhouse gas pollution from power plants, the centrepiece of Mr.Obama’s climate change policy and the major way f or the administration to meet itstargets under the Paris accord.

The two world leaders made the announcement on the sidelines of a nuclear securitymeeting in Washington.

“Our cooperation and our joint statements were critical in arriving at the Parisagreement, and our two countries have agreed that we will not only sign the agreementon the first day possible, but we’re committing to formally join it as soon as possiblethis year,” Mr. Obama told reporters at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center,where he was meeting with Mr. Xi at the nuclear gathering. Mr. Obama, who spokeacross a table from Mr. Xi, added: “And we urge other countries to do the same.”

Mr. Xi, speaking through an interpreter, said: “As the two biggest economies, China andthe U.S. have a responsibility to work together.”

The Paris Agreement, reached in December, is the first global accord to commit nearlyevery nation to take domestic actions to tackle climate change.

To promote the accord, Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary-General, planned the signingceremony for April 22, Earth Day, although world leaders will have a year afterward tosign. The announcement by Mr. Obama and Mr. Xi is intended to push other countriesto sign on, particularly since diplomats say the Supreme Court order has caused some



countries to question American climate policy and might cause them to refuse orhesitate to sign the accord.

The Paris Agreement will enter into legal force only when enough countries have signedon: together they have to be responsible fo r causing 55 per cent of the world’s

greenhouse gas emissions.

Because of the Supreme Court stay, the regulation curbing greenhouse gas emissionswill not be put in place until legal challenges by 29 states and several businessorganisations have been resolved, which is unlikely to happen before next year. Theregulation would help the U.S. cut greenhouse gas emissions between 26 and 28 percent from 2005 levels by 2025.

Chinese energy experts said China’s pledge to sign the accord was independent of thestatus of American climate policy.

“The understanding is that China is doing this for its own sake,” said Ranping Song, anexpert on China’s climate change policies with the World Resources Institute, aWashington research organisation. “It’s good for their environment; it’s good for theireconomy.” Mr. Xi’s administration has endorsed an aggressive expansion of renewableenergy sources in China. The country’s latest five -year economic plan calls for thecountry to generate 15 per cent of its energy from non-fossil fuel sources by 2020.

Combined, the U.S. and China account for about 40 per cent of global emissions.

Mr. Ban has invited world leaders to come to New York for the April signing ceremony,which he hopes will represent the largest single joint signing of a major global accord inhistory.

“The most important thing is how many signatures we get on that day,” said Laurence Tubiana, France’s chief climate change envoy to the UN.

In the U.S., enactment of Mr. Obama’s climate change commitments under the Pa risdeal will ultimately fall to the next President.

But that fact also worries some climate diplomats as they watch the 2016 presidentialcampaign from afar. Although the Democratic front-runner, Hillary Clinton, has pledgedto enact and strengthen the Paris Agreement, on the Republican side, both Donald

Trump and Ted Cruz have questioned or denied the science of human-caused climate

change. — The New York Times News Service

2. China to export electricity along the NewSilk RoadIn tune with its One Belt, One Road initiative, China is positioning itself as a formidableenergy exporter, targeting markets that span from Germany to India along the New SilkRoad.



Two factors are driving Beijing’s ambitions of emerging as a regional electric supplyhub. First, China is already a surplus power producer following a decade of continuousinvestments at home in all forms of energy. Since 2004, when it suffered chronicoutages that threatened to restrain its manufacturing, the Chinese went into overdrive,investing heavily in hydro and coal-fired plants, apart from escalating development of

nuclear and renewable energy.

Second, China has mastered ultra – high voltage (UHV) technology, which has allowedState Grid, China’s state -owned power behemoth, to transmit electricity fromproduction centres in West — in places such as Xinjiang — to coastal industrial centresin the faraway east.

“China has the technical capacity to increase the voltage to 1500 kilovolts, so that itcan transport power 8,000 km away. And it is financi ally viable to expand,” Liu Zhenya,State Grid head, has been quoted as saying.

Now, with Xinjiang in western China as the hub, China has the proven technologicalheft to transmit electricity as far as Germany.

The Financial Times quoted Mr. Liu as saying that his company was eyeing otherpotential markets such as Pakistan, India and Myanmar. Last week, State Grid also tiedup with South Korea’s utility Korea Electric Power, SoftBank of Japan and Russia’sRosetti PJSC to study the feasibility of establishin g an “Asian Supergrid.”

The study would culminate the 2012 proposal of Masayoshi Son, chairman of Softbank,who had visualised the Supergrid that would source power from Mongolia’s huge windfarms and supply renewable power to South Korea, Japan, China and possibly Russia.

While focusing on the One Belt One Road for now, Mr. Liu has even more ambitiousplans. Bloomberg News is reporting that State Grid is “actively in bidding” for powerassets in Australia, hoping to add them to a portfolio of Italian, Brazilian and Filipinocompanies. The idea is to connect these and other power grids to a global grid that willdraw electricity from windmills at the North Pole and vast solar arrays in Africa’sdeserts, and then distribute the power to all parts of the world.

3. Cameron under pressure to come cleanDavid Cameron’s admission to a private television channel — coming five days after thePanama Papers revealed details of his late father’s offshore tax investments — that he

did in fact hold shares in the company before he became the British Prime Minister in2010, has put him under pressure from opposition parties to come clean on hisprevious financial arrangements.

Coming clean is what Mr. Cameron tried to do in his interview with ITV, but it does notseem to have satisfied his critics who say he should have made these admissionsearlier. Mr. Cameron told the ITV news channel that he and his wife SamanthaCameron held 5,000 units in Blairmore Investment Trust, his father’s offshore



company, which he sold for £31, 500 just before he became the Prime Minister. “I sold itin January 2010, because I didn’t want anyone to say that I had other agendas orvested interests.”

He said he paid income tax on the dividends, but as the £19,000 profit was less than

the capital gains tax allowance, he did not pay capital gains tax. However, it wassubject to all U.K. taxes. Mr. Cameron also said he inherited a sum of £300,000 fromhis late father. “I obviously can’t point to the source of every bit of money and dad’s notaround for me to ask the questions now,” Mr. Cameron said in his interview.

10 Downing had issued four statements after the Panama Papers revelations to say thatMr. Cameron did not own any offshore funds.

This is true, but it was the delay in his admission that he owned shares in the past thathas attracted the charges of “hypocrisy” and “untrustworthiness” that his opponentsare making.

Mr. Cameron will have to explain why it took five days to issue a statement regardingthe issue when Parliament meets on Monday after the Easter break, especially in thecontext of the passionate moralising he has indulged in recently on the issue of tax-avoidance.

The Labour Party has asked him to provide full disclosure on his past and presentfinances to Parliament. Tom Watson, Deputy Leader of the Labour Party, told the BBCthat Mr. Cameron had not broken the law but that his action was “ethically wrong”. “Hehas to stand up for the highest standards,” Mr. Watson said, adding journalists had tosqueeze the truth out of him. Senior Labour MP Keith Vaz told The Hindu that he doesnot think the Prime Minister should resign over the issue.

In a statement, Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party, said theadmission had left the Prime Minister’s “credibility in tatters and completely betrayspublic trust.”

Mr. Cameropn is already under pressure from within his own party for sending outleaflets to 2.5 million homes urging them to vote against leaving the European Union inthe referendum on June 23. This allegedly cost £ 9 million.

Rating slips

Meanwhile, a latest YouGov poll, taken in the wake of revelations in the PanamaPapers, showed that Mr. Cameron’s approval rating has slipped.

According to the survey, the Prime Minister’s rating has slipped to 34 per centcompared to 39 per cent in a similar poll in February.



4. ‘N. Korea tests engine for missile that cantarget U.S.’ North Korea said Saturday it had successfully tested an engine designed for an inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) that would “guarantee” an event ual nuclear strikeon the U.S. mainland.

It was the latest in a series of claims by Pyongyang of significant breakthroughs in bothits nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes.

Scepticism

Outside experts have treated a number of the claims with scepticism, suggesting theNorth Korean leadership is attempting to talk up its achievements ahead of a showcaseruling party congress next month.

According to the North’s official KCNA news agency, the ground engine test was orderedand personally monitored by leader Kim Jong-un.

As soon as Mr. Kim flagged off the test, “the engine spewed out huge flames withdeafening boom”, KCNA said.

“The great success... provided a firm guarantee for mounting another form of nuclearattack upon the U.S. imperialists and o ther hostile forces”, Mr. Kim was quoted assaying.

Now North Korea “can tip new type inter -continental ballistic rockets with more

powerful nuclear warheads and keep any cesspool of evils in the earth including theU.S. mainland within our striking range” , Mr. Kim added. — AFP

5. U.S., Philippines launch joint patrols inSouth China Sea

The U.S. said on Thursday it has launched joint South China Sea naval patrols with thePhilippines, escalating its presence as it accused Beijing of “militarising” a region whichis locked in territorial disputes.

In a show of strength, U.S. Defence Secretary Ashton Carter also announced that 275troops and five A-10 ground attack aircraft currently in the country for annual wargames will remain there temporarily.

China war ned deployments must not damage “regional stability”, but Mr. Carter saidWashington’s efforts to strengthen its military role in the region were not done “in orderto provoke”. He said the U.S. was responding to regional anxiety over China’s muscularactions in the South China Sea, including building artificial islands over disputed reefs.





“It was a coup against democracy,” said Ms. Rousseff’s attorney general, Jose EduardoCardozo. He said Ms. Rousseff would make her first public reaction later on Monday.She is accused of illegally manipulating budget figures but her supporters say there isno evidence and t he impeachment drive amounts to a “coup”. The case now passes tothe upper house which is expected to vote in May on whether to open an impeachment

trial. Eduardo Cunha, the lower house speaker who engineered the successfulimpeachment vote, said Ms. Rouss eff’s days as President were numbered.

Outside Congress, where tens of thousands of people were watching the vote on giantscreens, the split was echoed on a mass scale — with Opposition supporters partyingand Rousseff loyalists in despair. Experts consider it almost certain the Senate will voteto launch a trial, since its political makeup reflects that of the lower house. If thathappened, Ms. Rousseff would step down for up to 180 days while the trial got underway.

If the Senate then voted by a two-thirds majority for impeachment, Rousseff would beousted. Vice-President Michel Temer would take over and stay on until elections in2018. — AFP

7. Floating nuclear plants to power China’sartificial islandsAll the radar systems, lighthouses, barracks, ports and airfields that China has set upon its newly built island chain in the South China Sea require tremendous amounts ofelectricity, which is hard to come by in a place hundreds of miles from the country’spower grid.

Beijing may have a solution: floating nuclear power plants.

A state-owned company, China Shipbuilding Industry Corp., is planning to build a fleetof the vessels to provide electricity to remote locations including offshore oil platformsand the contentious man-made islands, Global Timesreported on Friday. The paperquoted a company executive, Liu Zhengguo, as saying that “demand is pretty strong” forthe floating power stations.

In January, Xu Dazhe, the director of the China Atomic Energy Authority, told reportersthat China was planning t o develop floating nuclear energy plant, linking it to China’sdesire to become a “maritime power”.

China would not be the first country to employ floating nuclear power plants. In the1960s, the U.S. Army installed a nuclear reactor inside the hull of a World War IIfreighter to provide electricity for the Panama Canal Zone. And nuclear power has beenon vessels since 1955, when the commanding officer of the Nautilus, an Americansubmarine, sent word that the craft was “underway on nuclear power”. Since th en,nuclear reactors have provided propulsion, and electrical power, for ships. — New York

Times News Service



8. No ground troops for Syria: ObamaU.S. President Barack Obama arrived on a valedictory visit to Germany on Sunday tosee his “friend” Chancello r Angela Merkel, but their show of unity looked unlikely tosilence opposition to their push for a transatlantic trade pact.

Mr. Obama jetted into the northern city of Hanover from London, where he warned onSunday that it would be a “mistake” to send West ern troops into Syria and cautionedBritain on reduced global influence should it quit the EU.

While his fifth and final official trip to Europe’s biggest economy is expected to coverglobal crises, one of the headline goals is to advance negotiations on what could becomethe world’s biggest free trade agreement.

Both sides say they aim to see the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership(TTIP) finalised, at least in its broad outlines, before Mr. Obama leaves office in

January. However Ms. Merkel’s Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel cast doubt on thoseambitions on Sunday, warning the deal “will fail” if the United States refuses to makeconcessions in the protracted talks.

“The Americans want to hold fast to their ‘Buy American’ idea. We can’t accept t hat. They don’t want to open their public tenders to European companies. For me, that goesagainst free trade,” Mr. Gabriel, a Social Democrat who is also Germany’s Deputy -Chancellor, told business newspaper Handelsblatt .

His comments came a day after tens of thousands of people marched against the U.S.-EU free trade deal through the streets of Hanover, where Mr. Obama and Ms. Merkelwere to open what was billed as the world’s largest industrial technology fair on Sundaynight.

Before he left for Germany, Mr. Obama told the BBC the United States would continueefforts to broker a transition deal between the Syrian regime and its moderateopponents to end the bloody civil war, but warned against “simple solutions”.

“It would be a mistake for the United State s, or Great Britain, or a combination ofWestern states to send in ground troops and overthrow the Assad regime,” he said.

Rather, he called for “international pressure” on “all the parties, including Russia andIran, who, essentially, are propping up Assa d”.

In the same interview, Mr. Obama reiterated his warnings about a so-called Brexit,saying Britain would have “less influence globally” if it voted to leave the EuropeanUnion in June.

During Mr. Obama’s seven years in office, the Democrat U.S. Presiden t and theconservative German chancellor have grown closer and Mr. Obama sees her, amongEuropean leaders at least, as first among equals.



Mr. Obama’s visit will wrap up Monday with a keynote speech in which he is expectedto frame his vision of transatlantic relations.

For Mr. Obama, the trip will be an opportunity to burnish his legacy and bolster Ms.Merkel, whose fortunes at home have been hit by her handling of the migration crisis.

— AFP

9. ‘U.S. should first stop military exercises’ North Korea is ready to halt its nuclear tests if the United States suspends its annualmilitary exercises with South Korea, the North Korean Foreign Minister said in aninterview in which he also warned that his country won’t be cowed by internationalsanctions.

Foreign M inister Ri Su Yong defended the country’s right to maintain a nucleardeterrent, and for those waiting for the North’s regime to collapse, he had this to say:“Don’t hold your breath.”

“Stop the nuclear war exercises in the Korean Peninsula, then we should also cease ournuclear tests,” he said in his first interview on Saturday with a Western newsorganisation. Mr. Ri held firm to Pyongyang’s longstanding position that the U.S. drovehis country to develop nuclear weapons as an act of self-defence. At the same time, hesuggested that suspending the military exercises with Seoul could open the door totalks and reduced tensions. If the exercises are halted “for some period, for some years,”he added, “new opportunities may arise for the two countries and for the whole entireworld as well.”

Mr. Ri’s comments to the AP came just hours after North Korea test -fired a ballisticmissile from a submarine in its latest show of defiance as the U.S.-South Koreaexercises wind down. He referred to the launch in the context of current tensionscaused by the military exercises. North Korea, which sees the U.S.-South Koreanexercises as a rehearsal for invasion, has floated similar proposals to Washington in thepast, but the U.S. has insisted the North give up its nuclear weapons program firstbefore any negotiations.

In Seoul, South Korea’s Foreign Ministry released a statement Sunday that called theNorth’s proposal “not worth considering.” A U.S. State Department official defended themilitary exercises as demonstrating the U.S. commitment to its alliance with the Southand said they enhance the combat readiness, flexibility and capabilities of the alliance.

“We call again on North Korea to refrain from actions and rhetoric that further raisetensions in the region and focus instead on taking concrete steps toward fulfilling itsinternational commitments and obligations,” said Katina Adams, a spokeswoman forthe State Department.



INDIA AND THE WORLD NEWS

1. India-European Union boost strategicpartnership as free trade talks flounder

The 13th India-EU Summit concluded in Brussels without a consensus on a bilateralfree trade deal known as the BTIA (Broadbased Trade and Investment Agreement) evenas progress was made in bilateral cooperation in other fields -- from foreign policy toouter space.

The talks, which ended late Wednesday, were a culmination of efforts to kick-start arelationship that has been flagging for at least four years. The very fact that theyoccurred made them significant.

While both the parties failed to set a date for the next round of trade talks, TomaszKozlowski, EU Ambassador to India, told The Hindu that the discussions on tradeinvolved an expression of ambitions and degrees of flexibility from both sides. “[The] EUand India will continue discussions on a possible FTA at a high- level,” Mr. Kozlowskisaid.

India has been pushing for opening European markets for its services sector and the

movement of people to deliver those services while the EU has been keen on reducing orabolishing tariffs in several sectors, including in the automobile and wine and spiritssectors. The Brussels meetings evidently did not see the closing of gaps between the twosides.

“Overall, the most important thing is that the Summit put our strategic partnershipback on track,” Mr. Kozlowski said in response to a question on the single mostimportant achievement. “We really needed a strong political push and an expression ofstrong political commitment from both sides to define the main directions of ourrelations and to decide what fields of cooperation are most interesting for both sidesand the most promising.”

The fields of cooperation are many, and defined by the EU-India Agenda for Action-2020, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the presidents of the European Counciland European Commission endorsed. The sectors of partnership range from foreignpolicy, counter terrorism and disarmament to transport and space. While at least sixagenda documents and declarations were issued by the EU on their website, the extentto which they will be acted upon and not share the current fate of the BTIA, remains tobe seen.







“It will institutiona lise what we are doing with DTTI and the India Rapid Reaction Cell(IRRC). In fact, IRRC is specifically mentioned in this Act,” Duncan Lange, who headsthe India Rapid Reaction Cell (IRRC) in the Pentagon, told The Hindu. .

He noted that the resolution had not been passed yet, but there was a lot of support for

that. “India is a bipartisan thing,” Mr. Lange said.

The IRRC is the only country-specific cell in the Pentagon and functions under the officeof the Under Secretary of Defence Acquisition, Technology and Logistics. It was set upin January 2015 with a six-member team which, officials said, is indicative of theimportance attached to deepening strategic cooperation with India.

The IRRC was the initiative of U.S. Defence Secretary Ash Carter, also the key architectof the DTTI, launched in 2012 to deepen high-technology cooperation and move towardsco-development and co-production of high technology platforms.

Mr. Lange explained that rather than the cell being the initiative of one Secretary, theAct would make it a permanent process. “We are going to be changing governmentssoon. So whatever happens, the progress we made here should go on.”

Speaking on the progress of the projects under the DTTI, Mr. Lange said a projectagreement had been signed in August last year for two of the four pathfinder projects — mobile electric hybrid power sources and uniform integrated protection ensemble(nuclear, biological and chemical protection suits for soldiers).

3. China-funded Colombo Port City projectcontinues to face protestsEven as the Sri Lankan government is inching towards an agreement to revive theColombo Port City Project, its critics have renewed their campaign against the project,funded by a Chinese company.

The issue has again come to the fore in the wake of Prime Minister RanilWickremesinghe’s current visit to China. The project promoter, CHEC Port CityColombo (Pvt.) Ltd, is a subsidiary of China Communications Construction Company,an entity listed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Herman Kumara, convener of the National Fisheries Solidarity Movement and one of theco- conveners of the People’s Movement Against the Port City, said the Sri Lankangovernment was going ahead without considering various factors such as “adverseimpact” that would be caused to marine ecology, environment and fishermen’slivelihood.

The Movement had conducted a demonstration against the project early this week. Mr.Kumara added that no consultations were held with those who opposed it. He said “Wewill not give up our oppo sition. We will carry on the campaign further. “



An official says that during the latest review of the project from environmental angle,the project promoter gave a detailed response to various issues which the authoritiesfound satisfactory. Ravi Karuanayake, Finance Minister, linked the revival of the projectto compliance with all the norms and regulations.

Critics say govt. is going ahead ignoring the adverse impact of the project

4. “Beijing’s ties in South Asia will not harmIndia” India’s ties with C olombo are casting a shadow on the visit of Sri Lankan Prime MinisterRanil Wickremasinghe, who arrived in the Chinese capital on Wednesday to reboot alongstanding relationship with Beijing.

Within hours of Mr. Wickremasinghe’s arrival, the state -run Global Times ran an op-edarticle that focused on India as a factor in the Beijing-Colombo ties. Analysts say that

the $1.4 billion Colombo Port City Project in Colombo, which has faced protests athome, has become a litmus test for Colombo’s ability to balanc e ties between the twoAsian powerhouse neighbours.

The article addressed concerns regarding the mega project that is being undertaken byChina’s CHEC Port City Colombo (Pvt.) Ltd., alleging that apart from Sri Lanka’spartisan politics, “pressure from Ind ia has [played] a crucial role in suspending theproject”.

It said: “New Delhi is often biased when viewing Chinese investment in South Asia. NewDelhi’s anxiety stems from its suspicion that China is making an attempt to contain

India.

Despite the fact th at neither Beijing’s investment to Sri Lanka, nor the latter’s economicdevelopment will do any harm to India, New Delhi is still obsessed with the idea thatChina might create a military encirclement around India”.

5. Colombo tries to strike a balance betweenIndia, ChinaA year ago, Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who had just returned topower after a gap of over 10 years, chose Guruvayur, a temple town in Kerala, to make

a pertinent observation on his country’s ties with two big neighbours: “Sri Lanka isneither pro-India nor pro- China,” he said. His comments came at a time there wereconcerns in India about China’s rising involvement in Sri Lanka.

It was during the presidency of Mahinda Rajapaksa that Chinese presence in Sri Lankabecame more perceptible through its involvement in big-ticket infrastructure projectssuch as the $1.4-billion Colombo Port City Project. Even though, in the run-up to the

January 2015 presidential election, Mr. Wickremesinghe had campaigned against the



project, the new government took a more pragmatic approach. A senior academicianpoints out that the present dispensation appears to be more “objective and transparent”on the project than before.

In mid-2015, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, then the Defence Secretary, told a seminar in

Colombo that India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval once asked him to halt theproject, citing India’s security concerns.

The port city project has been proposed alongside the Colombo port, which has becomea vital player in the Indian scheme of economic activity. This was why New Delhi hadinitially viewed the project with suspicion in view of reports of the Chinese projectpromoter getting land ownership rights.

Though India has not made its position public to Colombo’s renewed move to revive theproject, what has comforted it is that Sri Lanka has made it clear that land will beprovided on a long-term lease and not on free hold. Sugeeswara Senadhira, an aide ofMr. Sirisena, feels Sri Lanka has to keep in good humour both the powers by revivingthe Port City project and going along with India for the Economic and TechnicalCooperation Agreement.

While favouring deeper economic engagement with China, experts on foreign affairsargue that Sri Lanka should not do anything that will be perceived by India as asecurity threat.

6. China, Sri Lanka eye new infra road map toanchor ties

Looking beyond the current difficulties in reviving a stalled multi-billion dollar project,Sri Lanka and China are now defining a new blueprint, based on rapid infrastructuredevelopment, to rail their growing ties for the future.

“Our visit today is an important visit because it will discuss and finalise the frameworkof future cooperation between our two countries,” said visiting Sri Lankan PrimeMinister Ranil Wickremesinghe in his opening remarks during talks with his Chinesecounterpart Li Keqiang on Thursday.

On Friday, Mr. Wickremesinghe called on Chinese President Xi Jinping. Following talkswith Prime Minister Li, both countries affirmed that the $1.4 billion Colombo Port Cityproject had their support, but “technical details” needed to be ironed out beforeconstruction could resume.

“On the Colombo port, both sides agreed to further speed up the overall andcomprehensive resumption of work on this project. The announcement to resume thework has been made by the Sri Lankan side, but now we will go into further technicaldetails,” said Xiao Qian, head of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s Asia Department, in abrief interaction with the media. “This is an impor tant project and both countries have



a strong desire to further enhance and advance this project. On the Chinese side, wehope to see the earliest possible resumption. We believe we won’t have to wait too long.”

New plan

Chinese officials also made it plain that they were now engaged in a dialogue with theSri Lankans to carve out a new plan that will steer Beijing-Colombo ties. Theopportunity to advance the relationship has arisen following the end of Sri Lanka’s civilwar and China’s adoption of its 13th five-year plan along with its Going Abroadstrategy.

Ahead of his visit, Mr. Wickremesinghe has pledged that his government would generateone million jobs in five years, mainly based on foreign investments from China, Japan,Singapore, India and European countries.

In tune with Colombo’s aspirations, the two Prime Ministers agreed to prioritise theconstruction of an industrial park at Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port. Xinhua quotedPrime Minister Li as saying Chinese companies would be encouraged to developindustrial parks, special economic zones, and engage in the processing andmanufacturing sector in Sri Lanka.

The two countries will also concentrate on the construction of ports, airports, roads andrailways along with fostering a stronger collaboration in the fields of finance, scienceand technology and culture.

The focus on infrastructure has resulted in the signing of a preferential buyer creditloan agreement for the construction of an extension of section two of the SouthernHighway. The Southern Highway is a 126km-long expressway that runs from Colomboto Matara on the southern coast of the island.

Both sides have also agreed to advance their FTA negotiations, with the year-end as thetarget to achieve tangible results.

During his stay, Mr. Wickremesinghe is slated to meet representatives of the China-ledAsian Infrastructure Investment Bank — the 57-member lender which has been gearedto develop infrastructure along the Asian leg of the Belt and Road, China’s giant oceanicand land connectivity project.

Previously, officials from the Asian Development Bank have expressed their willingness

to co-finance projects with the AIIB in Sri Lanka. Mr. Wickremesinghe has already metLiu Liange Liange, the head of the China’s powerful Export Import Bank.

Chinese officials said Sri Lanka is “very willing” to participate in China’s Belt and Roadinitiative so as to re- establish Sri Lanka’s position as the trade hub in the IndianOcean.



On the political side, Sri Lanka’s United National Party is set to reinforce ties withCommunist Party of China following Mr. Wickremesinghe’s talks with Song Tao, theMinister of CPC’s International Department.

7. Bangladesh plans to ban ‘terrorist’ Jamaat -e-IslamiBangladesh is planning to ban the Jamaat-e- Islami, the country’s bigge st Islamistparty, State Minister for Foreign Affairs Shahriar Alam said on Wednesday.

“Jamaat is a full -terrorist organisation and the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party),which has had an alliance with Jamaat, is a half-terrorist organisation. The BNP needsto be reformed. But Jamaat needs to be banned. After all, a terrorist organisation likethe Jamaat cannot be allowed to conduct normal political activities in the country,” Mr.Alam said while meeting a group of international journalists at his office on Wednesday.

Mr. Alam’s comments against Jamaat came a week after secular blogger NazimuddinSamad was hacked and shot dead in Dhaka. Though Jamaat has said it is not involvedin the murder, a confrontation is brewing between the group and the law enforcementauthorities.

Global efforts

Bangladesh has seen a rise in extremist violence over the last few years and the murderof Samad on April 6 has created a tense situation in the country right before thetraditional Bangla celebration of Pohela Boishakh.

In recent months, several activists and minority communities were targeted in thecountry by Islamists.

Mr. Alam said Bangladesh, which is a party to the Saudi Arabia-led struggle againstglobal terrorism, wants concerted global efforts to defeat terrorism.

However, he pointed out that “tension within the Islamic world” is also responsible forthe inability to deal with growing terrorism.

The Election Commission of Bangladesh has already banned Jamaat from contestingelections. “We are looking forward to the s tatements from the War Crimes Tribunal on

Jamaat’s role in the war crimes of the 1971 [liberation] war and will move ahead fromthere [to ban the outfit],” Mr. Alam said.

His comments against the Jamaat and the BNP highlight the deep political divide inBangladesh between the ruling party and the opposition. . Challenging criticisms thatthe government led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is cracking down on politicalopponents, Mr. Alam said: “Our commitment to secularism is a founding pillar ofBangladesh, which cannot be understood from outside without understanding theunique Bangladeshi conditions.



“Some of the political forces in the country have been against the foundationalprinciples of Bangladesh. Such forces will have to be defeated.”

Mr. Alam acknowledged that India and Myanmar have been strong partners ofBangladesh in dealing with terrorism that threatens South Asia.

8. Close ties with India needed for regionalstability, says ChinaAmid a string of diplomatic exchanges, China has described its ties with India as afactor in promoting a multi-polar world, as well as an important component for fosteringstability in the region.

On the eve of the arrival in Beijing of National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, China’sForeign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang s aid: “China and India are two largest developingcountries and major emerging economies as well as two significant forces that drive

forward world multi- polarisation.”

He added: “Close and amicable relations between China and India not only serve theinterests of the two sides, but also contribute to peace and stability of the region andthe whole world. We would like to work with India and continuously move forwardChina- India strategic cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity.”

Mr. Lu pointed out that the “intensive high level interactions” reflect that Beijing -NewDelhi ties are “enjoying a sound and stable momentum of development, with in -depthgrowth of political mutual trust, enhanced exchanges and cooperation in various fields,and sound coord ination and cooperation in international and regional affairs”.

The spokesperson noted that despite some differences between the two sides “which themedia are more interested in”, the two countries “are all willing to effectively manageand address these differences through friendly negotiation and consultation”.

Mr. Lu’s remarks on Monday coincided with the ongoing visit to China by DefenceMinister Manohar Parrikar.

Separately, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj met her Chinese counterpartWang Yi on Monday, on the sidelines of the Russia-India- China Foreign Ministers’meeting in Moscow. The flurry of exchanges will be capped by Mr. Doval’s talks onWednesday with his counterpart Yang Jiechi for the 19th Special Representatives’Meeting on the India-China Boundary Question.

The Chinese state-media is also according significant coverage to the surge of visitorsfrom New Delhi.

State-run Xinhua quoted Defence Minister Chang Wanquan as saying, in the aftermathof his talks with Mr. Parrikar, that “China reacted positively toward setting up a militaryhotline with India on border security”.



Xinhua said Gen.Chang advocated that the two sides “do a good job in implementingthe consensus reached by leaders of the two countries, enhance strategiccommunication , so as to safeguard common interests”.

He also suggested that Beijing and New Delhi should strengthen defence exchanges. A

separate Xinhua report from Moscow paraphrased remarks by Mr. Wang, the ForeignMinister, that referred to the mutually reinforcing role that India and China could playin the success of the G-20 summit later this year in Hangzhou and the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (BRICS) summit that would be held in India in October.



NATIONAL NEWS

1. Remains of U.S. WW II troops to bereturned during Carter’s visit India is set to hand over the remains of U.S. combatants and an aircraft shot down overArunachal Pradesh during World War II to Defence Secretary Ashton Carter during hisvisit next week.

The solemn ceremony will help spotlight India’s significant but little discussedcontribution to the allied war effort, according to analysts.

The U.S. military lost at least 416 personnel in one of the most treacherous WW IIoperations, as U.S. Air Force aircraft flew between northeast India and China providing

crucial logistics support in the war against Japan.

Most of the aircraft crashed while flying the route called the ‘Hump’.

About 12 years back, the U.S. provided Indian officials with the grid references of thecrash sites and sought their assistance to retrieve any surviving remains so that theycould be returned to the families of the service men, said an Indian army officer whowas associated with the early search operations and declined to be named citing serviceregulations.

Some of the sites mentioned were partly inhabited but most were in the thick lower

jungles of eastern Assam and along the higher altitudes of Arunachal Pradesh, theofficer added.

Initially, the Army was pressed in to locate the sites following a request from theMinistry of External Affairs (MEA), which was coordinating the multi-ministry effort.Later, a specialist team from the U.S. Defence Prisoners of War/Missing in ActionAccounting Agency (DPAA) undertook the retrieval.

“We located some mortal remains and several parts of a plane, including the engine,”the Indian Army officer said.

India is expected to hand over remnants of a U.S. Air Force B-24 bomber, whichcrashed at Damroh in Siang valley, Arunachal Pradesh on January 25, 1944 whileflying from Kunming in China to Chabua in Assam. India had served as a major alliedbase in Southeast Asia against Japanese forces, said Srinath Raghavan, Senior Fellowat the Centre for Policy Research and a noted historian.



From 1942 onwards, U.S. troops served in India. Several of them were also involved inbuilding infrastructure to support allied operations including many bases in theNortheast and even partly the Kolkata port, Dr. Raghavan said.

“It is in a sense the recognition of our shared history. Doing it is also recognition of

India’s own role in the war which is less talked about,” he said.

2. H-1B visa applications exceed cap of 85,000U.S. agency togo in for random selection

Amid a raging debate in the U.S on immigration, particularly of skilled workers,applications under the H-1B visa category exceeded the cap of 85,000 fixed for the fiscal

year 2017 on Thursday, when filings ended. The process opened on April 1. Of the totalcap of 85,000 visas, 20,000 are under a special category called ‘adv anced degreeexemption.’

Indian IT companies such as TCS, Wipro, and Infosys are among the major users of H-1B visas, along with American giants such as Microsoft and Google that recruitresources from India. In 2014, 86 per cent of the new H-1B visas issued were to Indiansand over the years, this has become the upwardly mobile Indian’s easiest entry route tothe U.S.

After a plunge in demand due to economic slowdown, the demand for H-1 B visas beganto rise again in 2011 and has outstripped the available quota within the first week ofthe season, from 2014. H-1B visa holders are allowed to apply for U.S. permanentresidency after five years.

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) said it would use a computer-runlottery to “randomly select the p etitions needed to meet the cap of 65,000 visas for thegeneral category and 20,000 for the advanced degree exemption.” USCIS said due to the“high number of petitions” — no number was mentioned — it was unable to announcethe date it will conduct the random selection process. Companies file several times thenumber of employees that they require, in order to increase the odds of winning thelottery and in the previous season it was more than three times the cap.

The immigration of skilled workers under the H-1B programme, meanwhile, has becomea hot political topic in the U.S. Republicans Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have called forrestrictions on these visas; and Democrat Bernie Sanders has argued for higher wages

for H-1B employees. Starting this year, the U.S. Congress has also imposed additionalfees that apply primarily to Indian companies raising the cost of each approved H-1Bvisa to above $ 8000.

Still, margins are such that Indian companies did not hold back on the number ofapplications, according to sources familiar with the sector. No official figures areavailable.



“The fees that were enacted in December are clearly discriminatory and increase costsfor both Indian companies and their U.S. clients among others. Efforts will certainlycontinue to have these fees rolled back.

That said, even if the U.S. companies decide to have a greater percentage of work

performed outside the U.S. the H-1B cap is so low that once again it was hit well beforethe fiscal year even began,” said Jeff Lande of The Lande Group, a leading advocate forNASSCOM.

USCIS will first randomly select petitions for the advanced degree exemption. Allunselected advanced degree petitions will become part of the random selection processfor the 65,000 general cap. The agency will return filing fees for all unselectedapplications.

3. U.N. to observe 125th birth anniversary of Ambedkar The birth anniversary of B.R. Ambedkar, father of the Indian Constitution, will beobserved on April 13 at the United Nations for the first time with focus on combatinginequalities to achieve Sustainable Development Goals.

The Permanent Mission of India to the U.N., in association with the Kalpana SarojFoundation and Foundation For Human Horizon, will commemorate Ambedkar’s 125thbirth anniversary at the U.N. headquarters, a day before his date of birth.

“The landmark 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development recognises that combatinginequality within and among countries, creating sustained, inclusive and sustainable

growth and fostering inclusion are interdependent. The vision of Dr. Ambedkar, thearchitect of the Indian Constitution, to achieve social justice and equality also findsresonance in the core message of the 2030 Agenda,” the Indian mission said in a pressrelease that was issued on Saturday.

On the occasion, a panel discussion will be organised on the topic “Combatinginequalities for the achievement of SDGs” with the objective of raising awareness of theimportance of addressing all forms of inequality for achieving the SustainableDevelopment Goals.

United Nations Development Group Chair and Administrator of the United NationsDevelopment Programme Helen Clark will deliver the keynote speech. “Babasaheb’sbirth anniversary to be observed at the U.N. for 1st time with focus on combatinginequali ties to achieve SDGs,” India’s envoy to the U.N. Syed Akbaruddin had tweeted.

— PTI

4. Search begins for 1922 film on Malabarrevolt



The Calicut University has begun a hunt for a rare film on the Malabar Revolt of 1921,made by the British government in 1922.

P. Sivadasan, head of the university’s Department of History, told The Hindu that theyhad obtained information about the film, titled Malabar Rebellion , from the State

Archives Department of Tamil Nadu. “We have documents to prove that a film of grea thistorical significance was made by the British soon after the Malabar Rebellion. Wehave begun a search for that film, which we believe can give us a whole lot ofinformation about the rebellion,” he said.

The film, depicting the agrarian revolt of the Mapilas against the British and those whosupported the British Raj that took place between August 1921 and January 1922, wasmade by the Films Division of the erstwhile Madras Government.

Documents of the Madras Publicity Bureau say that its distribution rights were sold inCalcutta on December 22, 1922.

Shows British suppression

Dr. Sivadasan said letters belonging to Atome Cinemas, which took the film fordistribution in Europe, stated that it showed how the British had brutally suppressedthe rebellion. “We are confident about retrieving the film,” he said.

The department is planning research on the 1921 episode of the anti-British freedommovement as the centenary of the rebellion is only about five years away.

5. RCEP draft moots tough curbs on cheap

medicines



A leaked chapter of the draft Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)agreement being negotiated by 16 countries — 10 member states of the Association ofSoutheast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and 6 other countries that have Free TradeAgreements with the ASEAN — reveals that the trade pact in its current form couldreduce access to affordable medicines in many developing countries.

The chapter on Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) is part of an October 2015 draft of theRCEP agreement. As The Hindu reported on April 20, India has opposed somedamaging proposals initiated by the RCEP members, particularly Japan and Korea,involving patent extensions, restrictive rules on copyright exceptions, and other anti-consumer measures.

Disclosing the draft document, U.S.-based NGO, Knowledge Ecology InternationalDirector James Love on Tuesday said, “Some member countries, who are part of boththe TPP [the U.S.-led Trans Pacific Partnership] and the RCEP, are trying to push forthe TPP standards in RCEP. Japan and Korea are working to introduce some of theworst ideas from the ACTA (Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement), the TPP and othertrade agreements in the RCEP chapter on Intellectual Property. There are proposals forpatent extensions, restrictive rules on exceptions to copyright, and dozens of other anti-consumer measures, illustrating the power of rights-holder groups to use secret tradenegotiations to influence democratic decisions that impact access to knowledge, thefreedom to innovate and the right to health in negative ways.”

The humanitarian aid organisation Médecins Sans Frontières’(MSF) is particularlyconcerned about a proposal by Japan and Korea demanding patent term extension — from the current 20 years by an additional five years — in ASEAN countries that are notparty to the TPP.

TRIPS plus

From India’s point of view, the draft proposals will compel governments to com mit tonewer Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights provisions like TRIPS plus

— including the Patent Law Treaty (Geneva, 2000), which involve harmonisation in theexamination of patent applications and requirements of patentability.

“Countr ies like India have, in the past, resisted pressure to sign the patents treaty as itcan curtail the flexibility under the Indian system to address key public policy issuessuch as ever greening. If these terms are accepted, it would limit access to affordablemedicines for people in Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos who depend

on Indian generics,” said Leena Menghaney, South Asia head of MSF’s accesscampaign.

The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are concerned at the move to withdraw theexemption granted under the TRIPS to implement intellectual property laws until 2033.

Waiver for some



“While it was previously agreed to exempt LDCs like Myanmar, Cambodia and Laosfrom implementing the IP laws till 2033, Article 5.7 of the draft of the RCEP textwithdraws the exemption. The LDCs should not be obliged to apply any IP for as long asthere is a transition period. It is sought to be limited to 2021, but the WTO committeeon intellectual property rights has agreed to extend the IP waiver on pharmaceutical

products for LDCs until 2033,” Ms. Menghaney added.

The RCEP is one of three mega FTAs proposed so far — the other two being the TPP andthe TTIP (Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the U.S. and theEU) — and aims to integrate Asian markets. The next round of RCEP discussions willtake place in Perth, Australia, between April 23-29.

6. Centre steps in to expedite patent approvals The government is taking measures to reduce the time to examine patent applicationsfor clearing them at the earliest, Ramesh Abhishek, Secretary, Department of IndustrialPolicy and Promotion (DIPP) measures said.

“Now the time is between 5 and 7 years for the first examination of patent applications. The target is to bring it down to 18 months, which I am told is the benchmark in theU.S. for the first examination after the applications are filed. That is the target we haveset for ourselves by March 2018,” Abhishek said at a FICCI event. DIPP is the nodalagency for most Intellectual Property issues including patents.

The examination time will gradually come down as the government will be setting amonthly, quarterly, half-yearly and an annual benchmark. In addition to the existingstrength of 130 examiners of patents and designs, the government recently hired 458new examiners, Mr. Abhishek said. An additional 263 examiners will soon be recruitedon a contract basis.

Also, online examination has begun to reduce pendency. The government has alreadyhired around 100 new examiners for trademarks. Examination time for trademarks hasbeen reduced from 13 months to 8 months, he said, adding that the new target is tobring this time down to one month by March 2017. The pendency in patent applicationsand trademark registration as on February 1, 2016 was around 2.37 lakh and 5.44lakh respectively. One of the main reasons for this situation was shortage of manpower,he said. On patentability of computer-related inventions, Mr. Abhishek said a panel willgive its report on it after April 30. Abhishek also said the patent rules are beingamended to fast-track examination for patents by start-ups. The government has

appointed a panel of around 80 lawyers to ensure free consultation to start-ups.





grow th rates as vast as what U.P. did. “Top five States, namely, Uttar Pradesh (11.43per cent), Maharashtra (10.49 per cent), West Bengal (10.10 per cent), Tamil Nadu (8.60per cent) and Andhra Pradesh (7.25 per cent) together accounted for about 50 per centof the total number of establishments in the country,” the Economic Census said.

A third of the 36 States and Union Territories saw the number of units in rural areasgrow faster

2. India’s gross fiscal deficit to exceed target

IMF estimates that the average for the emerging market and middle income economieswas 1.1 % in 2015

ndia’s gross fiscal deficit for 2015 -2016 could be 6.9 per cent of GDP, wider than thebudget estimate of 6.3 per cent, according to an analysis. Although the Centre’sestimates show that it will succeed in keeping its fiscal deficit within the target of 3.9per cent of GDP, a slippage is expected by the States as a whole. An analysis of thebudget documents of States by HSBC Global Research estimates that the aggregatefiscal deficit for all States will be 2.7 per cent of GDP, wider than the official estimate of2.3 per cent.



The study is based on the budget projections of 18 States, which make up just lessthan 80 per cent of India’s economy. These States released their budget projections forthe upcoming fiscal year over the past month.

At 6- 7 per cent of GDP, India’s General Government (Centre plus States) fisca l deficit is

well above the norm for most emerging markets and in the worry zone, InternationalMonetary Fund’s (IMF) Senior Resident Representative for India, Nepal and Bhutan, Thomas Richardson told The Hindu . “It must, in a gradual glide path, be broug ht downin line with other emerging market economies.”

The IMF estimates that the average fiscal deficit for the emerging market and middle-income economies was 1.1 per cent in 2015. For G20 emerging market economies itwas 4 per cent. Its latest data show s that China’s general government deficit was 1.9per cent of GDP in 2015 and is projected to rise to 2.3 per cent in 2016. The IMFcalculates fiscal deficit differently than how it is done in India. It excludes disinvestmentproceeds, which are essentially capital receipts, from the calculations for instance. Itsestimate for India of 7.2 per cent for 2015 is, therefore, higher than the officialestimates.

“We would like to see, over some horizon, the fiscal deficit reduced— by a widening ofthe tax base; Not by raising rates,” says Mr. Richardson.

Revenue collections

Indeed, according to the HSBC study, the fiscal slippage in 2015 is because States’revenue collections have disappointed. The revenue shortfalls can partly be attributedto the rapid fall in oil prices and the resultant disappointment in state governments’value-added-tax collections. For some States, such as Rajasthan and Orissa, it alsoreflects lower-than-budgeted nominal GDP growth.

Though States cut expenditure to reduce the deficit, they by and large avoided touchingcapital spending, which saw only a minor decrease. Much of the hit was taken bycurrent expenditure. This, the study concludes, is an important development as last

year when the centre decided to give more untied funds to States following the 14thFinance Commission Award, the risk was that States would be reckless with spending.“It is heartening that India’s States, on aggregate, protected capital expenditure morethan current spend,” it says.

The deficit widened despite the higher-than-expected funds transfers from the Centre

on account of the implementation of the 14th Finance Commission award, according tothe study, which projects further slippage this year: To 2.9 per cent, against the officialestimate of 2.6 per cent. The spoilers this year are going to be the twin burdens of thewage hikes following the awards of the pay commissions of the States and the interestbill on UDAY (Ujwal DISCOM Assurance Yojana) bonds.

HSBC Global Research’s analysis of the budget documents also shows that for 2016-17while States have made much more realistic revenue assumptions, they might have at



the same time underestimated expenditure: “State Governments are grappling with twonew spending pressures — the interest bill on UDAY bonds and pay commission wagehikes”.

According to latest available information, eight States will issue around Rs.1.8 lakh

crore of UDAY bonds over 2016 and 2017. As per the norms, the State deficits will stillhave to finance the interest costs of these bonds.

The study estimates that it is likely to cost States 0.1 per cent of GDP in 2016-17 asinterest pay-out.

Six of the 18 States studied, have made space for wage hikes in their fiscal accounts. These include Andhra Pradesh and Haryana.

Despite the fiscal slippag e of the States, the study doesn’t see the aggregate governmentborrowings rising much this year. The higher borrowings of the States are projected tobe offset by lower borrowings by the Centre, it says. In fact, one of the reasons why theCentre chose to retain the 3.5 per cent target, as per the Fiscal Responsibility andBudget Management (FRBM) roadmap in the Union Budget it presented last month, isthat it wanted to make space for the expected increase this year in the States’ borrowingrequirements.

According to RBI data, States borrowed a total of Rs.2.95 lakh crore last year, which isaround half of the gross borrowings of the Centre, of Rs. Six lakh crore.

Higher borrowing

Anticipating wider deficits and higher borrowing requirements this year, several Stateshave already starting passing resolutions to borrow more, National Institute of PublicFinance and Policy Professor N. R. Bhanumurthy told The Hindu .

“The importance of fiscal deficit is to know how much the government will have toborrow because that much pressure there will be on the liquidity available for theprivate sector’s needs,” Prof. Bhanumurthy says. It is for this reason the centre as wellas the States’ deficits too should be factored in to macro -economic analysis, herecommends: “T he FRBM framework, which the NDA Government is reviewing, shouldfocus on the aggregate deficit for the country…I feel a certain uneasiness at the mannerin which things are happening…In the absence of adequate understanding of theFRBM, we are saying it s hould be reviewed”. The 13th and the 14th Finance

Commissions had based their recommendations on the FRBM analyses from Prof.Bhanumurthy, for which, he says, he had used the aggregate deficit.

Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has indicated that instead of fixed annual targets,the amended FRBM could specify a range for deficit to be contained within. However,the unpredictability even in a narrow range could trigger volatility in the markets.

The ability to pay up



Over the medium term, Mr. Richardson says, fiscal deficits raise the issue ofsustainability of public debt and the market perception of the sustainability. “You don’twant to be in a situation where the market and rating agencies worry whether you canremain solvent and can pay up.”

Lower levels of government borrowings can bring down borrowing costs for all borrowers – government and private--and thus restart the investments cycle and spur growth.“Fiscal deficit is tracked so closely because the money with which it has to be financedhas to c ome from some place… The money used for funding it cannot be used forprivate investments. The pressure on availability can raise interest rates for privatesector, making their growth more difficult,” says Mr. Richardson.

It has also been suggested by a number of public finance experts that in the revisedFRBM framework, the Government must also commit to not borrow to financeconsumption spending.

Over the long run, government borrowings to finance fiscal deficits raise inter-generational issues.

Mr. Rich ardson says: “If you borrow from the next generation it should be in better -return investments…private sector investments generate more growth than financingthe fiscal deficit and you don't want to take from your children's pocket to financecurrent spend ing.”

“Fiscal deficit is tracked so closely because the money with which it has to be financedhas to come from some place,” says Richardson

Despite the States’ fiscal slippage the study doesn’t see borrowings rising much this year

3. World figures named in massive offshoretax evasion leakA cache of documents has exposed the secret offshore dealings of aides to RussianPresident Vladimir Putin, world leaders and celebrities, including Barcelona forwardLionel Messi.

An international coalition of media outlets on Sunday published what it said was anextensive investigation into offshore financial dealings of the rich and famous, based ona vast trove of documents provided by an anonymous source.

The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists, a non-profit organisationbased in Washington, said the cache of 11.5 million records detailed the offshoreholdings of a dozen current and former world leaders, as well as businessmen,criminals, celebrities and sports stars.



In India, The Indian Express was part of the investigation and has reported that manyIndian industrialists and celebrities, including actors Amitabh Bachchan andAishwarya Rai, DLF owner K.P. Singh and Vinod Adani (Gautam Adani’s elder brother),are named in the documents.

A cache of documents has exposed the secret offshore dealings of aides to Russianpresident Vladimir Putin, world leaders and celebrities including Barcelona forwardLionel Messi. An investigation into the documents by more than 100 media groups,described as one of the largest such probes in history, revealed the hidden offshoredealings in the assets of around 140 political figures, including 12 current or formerheads of states.

The scale of leaks

'No monetary compensation'

A Munich-based daily, Sueddeutsche Zeitung, was offered the data through anencrypted channel by an anonymous source who requested no monetary compensationand asked only for unspecified security measures, said Bastian Obermayer, a reporterfor the paper.

The data concerned internal documents from a Panama — based law firm, MossackFonseca. Founded by German — born Juergen Mossack, the firm has offices across theglobe and is among the world’s bi ggest creators of shell companies, the newspaper said.

Ramon Fonseca, a co-founder of Mossack Fonseca, said the firm had no control of howits clients might use offshore vehicles created for them.



“We are not responsible for the actions of a corporation that we set up,” he toldPanama’s Channel 2.

Panamanian govt offers to 'vigorously' cooperate

Panamanian President Juan Carlos Varela issued a statement saying his governmentwould cooperate “vigorously” with any judicial investigation arising from the leak of thelaw firm’s documents. He said that the revelations shouldn’t detract from hisgovernment’s “zero tolerance” for any illicit activities in Panama’s finance industry.

ICIJ said the law firm’s leaked internal files contain information on 214,488 offsho reentities connected to people in more than 200 countries and territories. It said it wouldrelease the full list of companies and people linked to them early next month.

Obermayer said that over the course of several months Sueddeutsche Zeitung receivedabout 2.6 terabytes of data more than would fit on 600 DVDs. The newspaper said theamount of data it obtained is several times larger than a previous cache of offshore datapublished by WikiLeaks in 2013 that exposed the financial dealings of prominentindividuals.

“To our knowledge this is the biggest leak that journalists have ever worked on,”Obermayer said.

The newspaper and its partners verified the authenticity of the data by comparing it topublic registers, witness testimony and court rulings, he told the AP. A previous cacheof Mossack Fonseca documents obtained by German authorities was also used to verifythe new material, Obermayer added.

Among the countries with past or present political figures named in the reports areIceland, Ukraine, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Argentina.

The Guardian newspaper, which took part in the investigation, published a video on itswebsite late Sunday showing an interview with Iceland’s Prime Minister, SigmundurDavid Gunnlaugsson. During the interview with S weden’s SVT television, the PrimeMinister is asked about a company called Wintris. He responds by insisting that itsaffairs are above board and calling the question “completely inappropriate,” beforebreaking off the interview.

Leaks trying to discredit Putin, says Kremlin

In Russia, the Kremlin last week said it was anticipating what it called an upcoming“information attack.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters that theKremlin had received “a series of questions in a rude manner” from an organisation thathe said was trying to smear Putin.



“Journalists and members of other organizations have been actively trying to discreditPutin and this country’s leadership,” Peskov said.

“The main target of this disinformation is our president, especially in the context of theupcoming parliamentary elections and in the context of a longer-term perspective - I

mean presidential elections in two years,” Peskov told a conference call with journalists.

“This Putinophobia abroad ha s reached such a point that it is in fact taboo to saysomething good about Russia, or about any actions by Russia or any Russianachievements. But it's a must to say bad things, a lot of bad things, and when there'snothing to say, it must be concocted. T his is evident to us.”

Peskov said the publications contained “nothing concrete and nothing new” aboutPutin.

The 10 mostpopular tax havens in the Panama papers

Argentina president confirms offshore company

The office of Argentina’s president, Mauricio Macri, confirmed on Sunday that thebusiness group owned by his family set up Fleg Trading Ltd., an offshore companybased in the Bahamas. But it said Macri himself had no shares in Fleg and neverreceived income from it.

Macri’s office commented after La Nacion, an Argentine national newspaper, reportedthat he and his family had links to Fleg.



The ICIJ said the documents included emails, financial spreadsheets, passports andcorporate records detailing how powerful figures used banks, law firms and offshoreshell companies to hide their assets. The data spanned a time frame of nearly 40 years,from 1977 through the end of 2015, it said.

“It allow s a never-before-seen view inside the offshore world providing a day-to-day,decade-by-decade look at how dark money flows through the global financial system,breeding crime and stripping national treasuries of tax revenues,” the ICIJ said.

Iceland PM Gunnlaugsson refuses to resign

Iceland’s prime minister insisted on Monday he would not resign after the Panamadocuments linked him to an offshore company that would represent a serious conflict ofinterest.

News reports have alleged that Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsson and hiswife set up a company in the British Virgin Islands with the help of a Panamanian lawfirm at the center of a massive tax evasion leak. The reports have prompted calls for ano — confidence vote in parliament against him.

Going on Icelandic television Monday afternoon, Gunnlaugsson said he would notresign and added there was nothing new in the information contained in the PanamaPapers data leak.

Iceland’s foreign minister also said on a trip to India that the prime minister had notdone anything illegal.

“There is nothing strange there,” said Gunnar Bragi Sveinsson, the minister for foreignaffairs and external trade.

Poroshenko denies breaking law

Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko insisted he has done nothing wrong and hasn’tmanaged his assets since being elected.

But Oleh Lyashko, leader of the Radical Party, said Monday the trove of data onoffshore financial dealings revealed by an international media consortium hasimplicated Poroshenko in alleged abuse of office and tax evasion.

Poroshenko promised voters he would sell his candy business, Roshen, when he ran foroffice. But documents from the Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca indicated thatinstead he set up an offshore holding company to move his business to the BritishVirgin Islands, possibly saving millions of dollars in Ukrainian taxes.

Lyashko urged lawmakers to initiate impeachment proceedings against the president.Poroshenko, whose faction has 136 seats in the 450-seat parliament, appears protected





The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday cut the benchmark repo rate by 25 basispoints to 6.5 per cent, as widely expected, with Governor Raghuram Rajan assuringthat the monetary stance will remain “accommodative.” Bankers said the commentsignals that the central bank is leaving the door open for further reductions.

The rate cut could help lower the cost of loans for consumers, including automobile andhome buyers.

The RBI said easing price pressures had been a key factor in determining the policystance and cited “government’s effective supply side measures keeping a check on foodprices, and the government’s commendable commitment to fiscal consolidation.” Retailinflation slowed to 5.18 per cent in February after accelerating for six consecutivemonths.

The repo rate, which is at its lowest in five years, will help banks reduce borrowingcosts, helping boost economic growth. “We have cut interest rates by 150 basis pointssince the beginning of the accommodative cycle,” Dr. Rajan told reporters.

The latest rate cut should be seen in the backdrop of banks reducing lending rates by25 to 50 bps since adopting a new loan pricing mechanism — the marginal cost offunds based lending rate — in the first week of April, according to the RBI Governor.

“Policy action i s more significant today than just a 25 basis points rate cut. Borrowingis now significantly cheaper and will continue to get so,” he said.

The RBI also announced measures to ease liquidity in the banking system. The dailyrequirement for maintaining cash reserve ratio has been reduced to 90 per cent from 95per cent from April 16, the marginal standing facility rate (the penal rate at whichbanks borrow from the RBI) was cut by 75 basis points and the reverse repo rate (therate banks earn when they park money with the RBI) raised by 25 bps.



“Policy actions... are not moving into the real economy as quickly as we would like,”Minister of State for Finance Jayant Sinha said on Tuesday. “So our focus is not somuch on the sugar high of what the RBI can do in terms of rate cuts as on working inthe areas of the economy where transmission is proving a problem.”

5. Govt. plans sops for SEZs, small exportersto spur shipmentsSteps aimed at helping reverse a prolonged contraction in merchandise exports

he government is considering several measures, such as offering incentives for smallexporters and a package to revive Special Economic Zones (SEZs), to help reverse thetrend of a prolonged contraction in merchandise exports since December 2014.

Labour-intensive export sectors and organic food producers will get concessions and apackage is on the anvil for SEZs so that they can utilize large tracts of unused land

available with them.

Also being considered are steps such as categorising the entire export credit given by alllenders separately under priority sector lending without riders, ensuring bettercoordination with Indian missions overseas, as well as relaxing norms for the ExportImport Bank of India (Exim Bank) and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation of India(ECGC) to give them greater operational flexibility.

Setting up of three dedicated zones for manufacture of Active PharmaceuticalIngredients (API or drug raw materials) and other pharmaceutical items, incentives forthe bio-tech industry especially for skill development, sops for manufacture and export

of electronic items, besides targeted measures to address the problems of smallimporters of steel items, exporters in the gems & jewellery and sea food sectors, are theother steps being considered.

These proposals will be taken up soon with other Ministries and regulatory authorities,Commerce & Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said after the Board of Trade (BOT)meeting. The 72-meber Board is a government-industry panel looking into measures toboost exports. The recently reconstituted Board chaired by Sitharaman held its firstmeeting on Wednesday.

Indian exports have declined from $314 billion in FY’14 to $310 billion in FY’15.Exports in FY’16 are expected to shrink further to nearly $260 billion.

“ The Prime Minister is keen that the government is constantly engaged with the exportsector to ensure that their problems are sorted out expeditiously. To ensure consistenthigh rates of economic growth, possibly closer to 10 per cent, we need exports sectoralso do to well,” Sitharaman told reporters. “We will hold interactions with Indian HighCommissions and Embassies along with their commercial and economic wings to makethem more vibrant and understand requirements of exporters.”



Trade bodies demanded better infrastructure to shore up exports and called for taxbenefits to be extended to small and medium units.

Demanding fiscal support for modernisation and expansion of the production base, S CRalhan, President of the apex body of exporters FIEO said investment-linked tax

benefits should be given to small and medium units needing huge capital andgenerating employment.

Naushad Forbes, President of the industry body CII, said strategies need to be evolvedto increase high value added or advanced manufacturing exports, help exporters complywith international best practices and standards, as well as address problems relating topoor infrastructure, inadequate trade finance, high logistic costs and inflexible labourlaws.

Besides, greater participation of the States is also required to boost exports, he added.

6. Panama mounts fierce defence of financialsectorPanama mounted a fierce defence of its crucial financial services sector on Wednesday,trying to head off a feared international clampdown on its offshore business in the wakeof the “Panama Papers” leak.

Diplomats accredited to the small Central American nation were called to the foreignministry to hear officials argue that it was unfair to single out Panama in the scandal.

They heard “what is the truth about Panama”, the state secretary for communication,

Manuel Dominguez, told AFP. The government has also written a harshly worded letterto the head of the OECD, Angel Gurria, attacking a statement he made describingPanama as “the last major holdout that continues to allow funds to be hidden offshorefrom tax and law enforcement authorities”. Those accusations were false, “unfair anddiscriminatory”, Deputy Foreign Minister Luis Miguel Hincapie wrote in the letter.

Earlier, law firm Mossack Fonseca, at the centre of the scandal after its papers wereobtained from an anonymous source by various media organisations, said it had lodgeda criminal complaint against the leaks. — AFP

7. Why low outgo for drought relief: SC

As soaring mercury levels leave drought-prone States in a parched condition, theSupreme Court on Wednesday turned the heat on the Centre for not releasing sufficientfunds to these States for employment generation under the Mahatma Gandhi NationalRural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS).



A Bench led by Justice Madan B. Lokur said there was no point anymore in denyingthat areas such as Bundelkhand and Marathwada were not drought-affected. It askedthe Centre to pull its socks up as the need for relief was now and immediate.

The Bench was hearing a PIL plea filed by Swaraj Abhiyan to treat the situation as a

calamity and provide guidelines for the effective implementation of the National FoodSecurity Act, the MGNREGS and basic water supply to drought-hit States.

“Temperature is soaring. There is no drinking water, there is nothing there,” the Benchsaid.

The court said that unless the Centre allocated funds, the States would remain helplessonlookers unable to fully implement schemes such as the MGNREGS.

The court pointed out that in many drought-affected States, the number of workdaysunder the scheme had shrunk from 100 to 48.

It noted that the desert State of Rajasthan and 256 villages in Gujarat had declareddrought.

In response, Additional Solicitor-General Pinky Anand submitted that the Centre wouldrelease over Rs. 7,500 crore towards wage dues under the MGNREGS.

“We are not targeting anybody. We are not targeting the officials. We are just trying tohelp the people,” the court said.

The petition listed Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Haryana andChhattisgarh as drought-hit.

The plea had sought the court to examine the rainfall data in these States for thepurpose of declaring drought-affected areas, districts and taluks.

The petition asked the court to intervene to find out about the implementation of theNational Food Security Act of 2013 and the availability of food grains, rice, dal, edibleoil, eggs and milk for children, etc, in these areas.

8. India-EU free trade impasse may end: CIIIndian industry is ready to grant greater market access to European Union firms inareas such as automobiles, wines and spirits in return for gains in garments,automobiles, automobile components and services sector in a bid to end a deadlock onthe proposed EU Free Trade Agreement, a trade body official told The Hindu .

“We hope to soon see some forward movement in the FTA negotiations,” said NaushadForbes, the new President of the premier industry body the Confederation of IndianIndustry. “We are not looking for reciprocal access or equal gains necessarily in the



same sector, but it should be an FTA with an overall win-win outcome for Europeanand Indian firms.”

During last month’s 13th India -EU Summit, which was attended by Prime MinisterNarendra Modi and EU leaders, both the side failed to reach an agreement on free trade

and a specific date to restart talks. The leaders welcomed the re-engagement ofdiscussions for furthering the proposed pact.

India is open to giving greater market access to EU firms by lowering duties forautomobiles, wines and spirits under the FTA provided it gets in return what it wants inother sectors, Mr. Forbes said. The automobile industry body Society of IndianAutomobile Manufacturers and the auto-component industry body AutomotiveComponent Manufacturers Association are on the same page with the CII on this issue,he said.

The talks on the FTA (officially known as the broad-based Bilateral Trade andInvestment Agreement) had commenced in 2007 and both the sides had held 16 roundsof negotiations till 2013. Though India and the EU had held one stock-taking meetingeach in the last three months on the FTA, formal negotiations are yet to re-start. Thetalks have been stalled as the negotiators have so far been unable to come up with acompromise solution to address the key demands of the EU — that India lower oreliminate duties on automobiles and wines & spirits, and India's main demands on datasecurity status (crucial for India's information technology sector to do more businesswith the EU firms), easier temporary movement of skilled professionals and seamlessintra-corporate movement.

While India looks into reducing or eliminating tariffs in sectors such as auto and liquor,the EU should do away with their non-tariff barriers that seem to have been erected

mainly to protect some of their local firms but not as much for better safety or quality,Mr. Forbes said.

The EU is learnt to have asked India to substantially bring down the “high” duties onautomobiles as a pre-condition for resumption of the FTA negotiations. India's importduty on cars are between 60 and 120 per cent as against the EU's 10 per cent.

The SIAM had earlier asked the commerce ministry not to buckle under pressure fromthe EU. The SIAM had sought continued protection for the sector saying reducing oreliminating duties on completely built units (CBU) as part of the India-EU FTA wouldencourage imports and in turn severely hurt the 'Make In India' initiative.

“An object ive of the tariffs is protection of an infant industry till they can compete withexperienced players in that industry. The problem is when it leads to permanent infancywhere you have companies that never grow up. Therefore tariff measures are credibleonly if they are temporary. When a sector reaches a certain level of competitiveness, freetrade should be encouraged, where if you are competitive you will survive and thrive,and if you are not, you will disappear,” Mr. Forbes said.



Official sources said if the EU persists with its demand on the automobile sector andseeks to keep it separate of the overall give-and-take involved in the FTA negotiations,India too would raise concerns regarding restrictions on temporary movement of skilledprofessionals to the EU. These curbs include the recent move by the UK to increaseminimum salary threshold for intra-company transfers.

India has also sought agricultural market access in the EU as well as disciplining ofSanitary and Phyto-sanitary (norms related with plants and animals) and TechnicalBarriers to Trade to ensure that the concessions in the FTA that would be given by theEU result in effective market access. India is keen that the FTA outcome is balanced.

Since 2013, when the FTA talks were stalled, India has unilaterally undertaken severalreforms (including those demanded by the EU) such as allowing 49 per cent foreigninvestment in insurance and pension, easing of foreign investments norms in thebanking, defence and railways sectors.

It has also allowed 100 per cent FDI in telecom, single-brand retail and in the market-place model of e-commerce. These reforms were cited during the stock-taking meetingand the EU was asked about their internal reforms that would similarly benefit India,sources said.

The FTA negotiations were slated to restart in August 2015, but India deferred themsaying it was disappointed and concerned over the EU imposing a ban on sale ofaround 700 pharmaceutical products clinically tested by GVK Biosciences. Both sideshave since held talks to separately resolve the GVK issue.

9. It’s official: India set for an ‘above normal’

monsoon

In line with recent predictio ns by private weather forecasters, India’s official weatherforecasting agency too has said the monsoon is likely to be “above normal” and likely tobe 106 per cent of the average of 89 cm.



Monsoon rains within 96 per cent and 104 per cent of this average are considered“normal” in the terminology of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

“The monsoon will be fairly well distributed but southeast India will get slightly lessrain,” IMD Director General, Laxman Rathore told a press conference here on Tue sday.

He also said some regions would see floods and that the chances of drought — definedas a deficit of 10 per cent or more — were only one per cent this year.

In any given year, the chances of such a drought are 16 per cent.

Several reasons underlie th e IMD’s optimism. Most importantly, it hinges on a waningEl Nino — a global, meteorological phenomenon that’s associated with a warming of thewaters of Central Pacific and correlated with droughts in India — and the historicalobservation that 7 out of 10 years, in the last century, that followed an El Nino sawnormal or above normal monsoon rains in India.

The years 2014 and 2015 were among the strongest El Nino years in meteorologicalhistory and were blamed for the climatically rare event of successive drought years.

Though Pacific temperatures haven’t cooled enough, “El Nino neutral conditions” areexpected to set in between June and July.

Another meteorological phenomenon known as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole — wherethe western portions of the Indian Ocean are warmer than the east and thereby pushrain-bearing clouds over India — is also likely to form during the middle of the monsoonseason, according to the IMD.

Finally, a La Nina — or an anti-El Nino — and associated with heavy rains in India wasexpected to set in around September, too late for the Indian monsoon, but its onset isgenerally considered enabling for the rains.

10. World output faces risk of 3.9 % drop by2021IMF says policy measures are needed to secure financial stability

The decline in oil prices has helped countries such as India improve their externalpositions, but low commodity prices have kept risks elevated in emerging marketeconomies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest Global FinancialStability Report. The spill- over effects of the growing uncertainty about China’seconomy and setbacks to growth and confidence in advanced economies are otherfactors undermining global financial stability, according to the report.

“These developments tightened financi al conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised creditrisks and stymied balance sheet repair,” the IMF said in the report. The report warnsthat global output could decline 3.9 per cent by 2021 if action isn’t taken to address therisks faced by the financia l system. “The main message of this report is that additional



measures are needed to deliver a more balanced and potent policy mix for improving thegrowth and inflation outlook and securing financial stability. In the absence of suchmeasures, market turm oil may recur,” it said. However, if timely measures are taken,world output could expand by 1.7 percent, relative to the baseline, by 2018, the reportsaid.

The financial stability report assesses the risks faced by the global financial system andthe current edition surveys the issues that surfaced since October 2015.

The report identifies a window of opportunity in the current economic recovery to dealwith what it calls a “triad of global challenges,” namely, the legacy issues in advancedeconomies, vulnerabilities in emerging markets and greater systemic market liquidityrisks.

Jose Vinals, IMF Financial Counselor, said at the release of the report that equitymarket fluctuations that occurred earlier this year could return. “Market turmoil mayrecur and intensify, and could create a pernicious feedback loop of fragile confidence,weaker growth, tighter financial conditions, and rising debt burdens…That could tip theglobal economy into economic and financial stagnation.”

IMF suggests that in advanced economies, banks must deal with bad assets and otherlegacy issues. The report observed that in the U.S. mortgage markets continue tobenefit from significant government support and the measures must be taken to reducethe dominance of institutions such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Given theincreasing role of China in the global financial system, “clear and timely communicationof its policy decisions and transparency about its policy goals and strategies consistentwith their achievement will be ever more important,” the IMF said.

“Market turmoil may recur and intensify, and could create a pernicious feedback loop offragile confidence, weaker growth, tighter financial conditions, and rising debtburdens…That could tip the global economy into economic and financial stagnation.”

11. Law to increase workers’ bonus faces freshhurdles



The government's attempt to appease the working class by paying higher bonus under a2015 law, applicable with retrospective effect from April 2014, has hit an embarrassingroadblock with High Courts in eight states staying the payment of such benefits.

The Payments of Bonus Act of 2015, passed by Parliament in December 2015 andnotified on January 1, doubled the statutory bonus paid to employees and made moreworkers eligible for bonus by raising the salary ceiling under the law from Rs.10,000 amonth to Rs.21,000 a month. While the original Bill was to be effective from April 1,2015, it was made applicable from April 2014 following a personal intervention fromPrime Minister Narendra Modi, Labour Minister Bandaru Dattatreya had said after itspassage.

High courts in at least eight states have already stayed the retro-active provisions of thelaw in the last two months — three of them in the last ten days — forcing the LabourMinistry to consult the Law Ministry on resolving the deadlock, possibly by approachingthe Supreme Court.

“It is very unfortunate. The Payment of Bonus law is in the interest of the crores ofworkers and was unanimously supported by political parties in Parliament,” Mr.Dattatreya told The Hindu .

Industry captains had warned the ministry about the financial implications of the retro-

active amendments on employers and pointed out that distributing bonus for theprevious year after the books of accounts are closed is a difficult prospect.

However, the minister countered this view. “It is an incentive for the industry as givingbonus to workers will lead to more productivity. We are having consultations on thenext plan of action following the High Courts’ stay,” he said.



State-level industry bodies across the country approached the courts for relief and thefirst stay on the retrospective applicability of the law was secured from the Kerala HighCourt on January 27. The court said the Act will be implemented from April 2015 tillthe plea is disposed. Since then, employers in Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Naduand even Bharatiya Janata Party-ruled states such as Gujarat, Rajasthan and Haryana

have procured similar stays from respective High Courts.

Perturbed, a few states like Madhya Pradesh even voluntarily issued a directive thatlocal industries need not make bonus payments for the period before April 2015 asdirected by the courts. The Centre, however, castigated the state administration for itssuo moto action and asked it to withdraw the diktat.

“Unless the High Court having territorial jurisdiction, passes any interim order of likenat ure, it was or is not necessary to issue any order for compliance of the same,” said amissive from the Union Labour Ministry to the MP government, reviewed by The Hindu .However, employers in the state got an interim stay from the courts on April 11. “Da yby day, employers in more states are moving the High Court. In some states, there aremultiple cases being heard. At present, we are defending all the cases. We are trying tomove the Supreme Court and the consultation process with the law ministry is on ,” saida senior labour ministry official, on condition of anonymity.

When asked if the labour ministry will challenge the interim orders in the SupremeCourt, labour secretary Shankar Aggarwal said: “We have sought the opinion of the lawministry and will take necessary action as per their advice.”

According to the law, an employer is mandated to give a minimum bonus of 8.33 percent of salary to employees earning upto Rs 21,000 a month.

However, for the purposes of calculating the bonus, only Rs.7,000 a month isconsidered as the salary.

Industry representatives argued in the various courts that companies have alreadydistributed the bonus for 2014-15 to its workers as per the eight month time limit (afterthe last day of a financial year) set for such payments under the law.

The Federation of Gujarat Industries termed the new law “unconstitutional” andquestioned the Centre’s attempt to justify the retrospective aspect of the law by arguingthat the Parliament could not take up the amendment in time for various reasons, in itspetition to the Ahmedabad High Court.

12. To push mineral hunt, Govt. to tweak 1967data-sharing curbs

The government will modify the almost five-decade-old guidelines prohibiting sharing ofgeological data and facilitate quicker green clearances in a bid to boost mining in thecountry, according to a top official.



The Ministry of Defence has decided to alter the guidelines issued in 1967 that barputting in public domain geological and geospatial data related to 40 per cent of India’s landmass, in order to enable faster exploration of mineral riches, Union Mines SecretaryBalvinder Kumar said.

Availability of comprehensive data is critical for attracting the private sector intoexploration.

“The Defence Ministry has agreed to change it s guidelines that prohibit data sharingwith the public,” Mr. Kumar told The Hindu .

“The guidelines will be relaxed to a great extent so that even geological data obtainedfrom past explorations can be shared,” he explained.

Separately, the Forest Advisory Committee under the Ministry of Environment, Forestsand Climate Change has approved a proposal from the Mines Ministry to ease greenclearances for exploration by linking permits to the extent of tree canopy in an area.

Clearances will not be required where tree cover is less than ten percent of thereconnaissance area while areas with over 70 per cent tree cover would be inviolate or‘no-go’zones.

The two changes are expected to be notified in a few weeks and will boost exploration ofnew mineral blocks, a top mines ministry official said.

This would also speed up mining operations in areas where exploration had been donein the past by government agencies but the findings were not in the public domain andthus, out of reach for private mining firms.

Though India has digitised a lot of its baseline geo-science data — including gravitycontour maps, aeromagnetic, radiometric and geo-chemical mapping — it cannot be putin the public domain or shared without a defence ministry clearance for ‘restricted’areas.

“While the Geological Survey of India has a data sharing and accessibility policy, theministry of defence had imposed a number of restrictions on the dissemination of maps,ground and aero geophysical data and data pertaining to restricted areas, in August1967,” said another official in the mines ministry familiar with the exploration policy.

He said about 40 per cent of the country fell within the restricted area. An estimated 10per cent of territory with obvious geological potential fell in such restricted areas.

Though foreign direct investment of up to 100 per cent had been allowed in the miningsector under the automatic route since 2006, the lack of credible geological data haddented investor interest so far. “While ease of doing business and pr ocuring clearancesis important, exploration will only find private sector competition when comprehensivegeo- scientific data is freely available,” the second official said.



To expedite green clearances for reconnaissance activity by explorers, the environmentministry would soon notify new rules for mineral exploration nods.

“The Forest Advisory Committee has cleared our proposal without any changes and theministry is now going to amend the rules in another month or two. That will speed up

exploration but ultimately that is linked to mining activity which can also start fasterwhere adequate mineral wealth is found,” Mr. Kumar said, stressing that such forestclearances took years in the past.

Once the changes are notified, forest clearances would be granted at the district levelfor blocks where the tree canopy is between 10 and 40 per cent of the exploration block.

State forest departments would grant clearances in cases where the tree canopy isbetween 40 and 70 per cent.

13. Bank deposit growth slowed to a five-decade low in FY16

With interest rates declining, deposit growth in the country’s banking system slowed toa 50-year low of 9.7 per cent in the last financial year, Reserve Bank of India datashowed.

Bank deposits increased by 12.1 per cent in the previous financial year. The centralbank has reduced the repo rate or the policy rate by 150 bps to 6.5 per cent since January 2015. Banks followed suit by reducing deposit rates as well as lending rates.

State Bank of India, the country’s largest lender, for example offers 7.25 per cent forone-year deposits.



RBI governor Raghuram Rajan had indicated during the monetary policy review earlierthis month that in Jan-March quarter, certain developments like issuances of tax freebonds and a rush to cash in on small savings before old rates expire, were some of thereasons for slower deposit growth. The government had announced a reduction in theinterest rates on small savings schemes in March, and the old rates were applicable till

March 31.

Mr. Rajan, however, added “I think that even 9 -9.5 per cent growth …is a reasonablegrowth.”

According to Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economic advisor, State Bank of India, highreal interest rates is one reason for low deposit growth as the savers are spending more.Real interest rate is the rate which a depositor gets after adjusting for inflation.

Retail inflation, which was at double digit levels two years back, has decelerated tobelow 5 per cent now.

Credit growth, on the other hand, is yet to pick up despite reduction in interest rates.According to RBI data reported on April 1, year-on-year credit growth was 10.7 per cent,as compared with 12.2 per cent in the preceding 12-month period.

14. Stick to fiscal consolidation, IMF tells IndiaWhile several demand and supply side factors have resulted in a sharp fall in inflationand have given the Reserve Bank of India space to cut interest rates, there are severalfactors that could drive inflation up again, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) haswarned in its latest edition of the World Economic Outlook (WEO).

The government must continue on its fiscal consolidation path and focus on reforms,espec ially in the labour and infrastructure sectors, the report said. It said India’scurrent account deficit would widen sharply to $94.7 billion by 2021. The report doesnot indicate how the IMF has arrived at the figure.

Consumer inflation would be at 5.3 per cent for the next two years and would ease by2021.

“...lower commodity prices, supply side measures, and a relatively tight monetarystance have resulted in a faster-than-expected fall in inflation, making room fornominal interest rate cuts, but upside risks to inflation could necessitate a tightening of

monetary policy,” it said.

The report was made public on Tuesday.

Consumer price inflation has eased to 4.8 per cent in March.



The report said India would achieve its inflation target of 5 per cent in the first half of2017, though it warned that an unfavourable monsoon and the effect of public sectorwage increases could pose risks.

15. Asian economies at greater risk now: ADBreportWidening income inequality, slower growth and the growing dominance of China andIndia in the region has meant that Asian governments must integrate a more robustresilience into their national plans, according to an independent evaluation of the AsianDevelopment Bank’s operations in South Asia.

The report also finds that the Asia and Pacific regions now account for 51 per cent ofthe world’s poor.

“Countries in Asia are already grappling with slower growth and falling international

trade, and need to find new drivers for growth while extracting extra mileage fromexisting i ndustries,” the report said.

“Asia today is more exposed to external shocks through the closer integration of globalmarkets. The region’s economic prospects are also increasingly linked to the ability ofthe People’s Republic of China and India to address their economic, environmental, andclimate challenges,” it added.

The report says, while the Asia-Pacific region in 1990 accounted for 1.5 billion peopleliving in poverty, or 80 per cent of the global total, this proportion has come down to 51per cent as of 2012, or 456 million people.

Within the region, South Asia accounts for 34 per cent of this 456 million poor people. The report defines the poor as those living below $1.9 a day.

“More than 1.3 billion people (in Asia -Pacific) — those living on less than $3.10 a day — are at risk of falling back into poverty due to their vulnerability to shocks and theproximity of their incomes to the poverty line,” according to the report.

16. Services corner bulk of FDI inflows



Although India received an all-time high annual foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2015,

the surge is led by the inflows into the services sector rather than manufacturing orinfrastructure. The ‘Make in India’ initiative has not yet materialised into FDI inflows.

More than half of total FDI inflows in 2015 came into the services sector, comprisingsoftware, financial services, trading, hospital and tourism, according to an analysis ofthe official data by the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion and CitiResearch. In 2014, the sector accounted for about a third of the gross inflows. FDI intothe sector in 2015 was 111 per cent higher than in 2014.

Gross inflows are up more than 30 per cent to about $40 billion. Breakdown of theofficial data shows that the inflows into the manufacturing sector are up 6 per cent in

2015 after the 19 per cent fall in 2014. FDI into infrastructure in 2015 was marginallylower than in 2014.

While inflows rose significantly into some sectors the BJP-led NDA government openedup, including insurance, construction, broadcasting and tourism, the impact of the FDIliberalisation measures in defence, railways and retail is not visible.

Inflows to construction surged 188 per cent from $1527 million to $4,405 million.Insurance received $581 million against $236 million, a 146 per cent jump. FDI inRailways declined 67 per cent to $71 million from $213 million in the previous year. Airtransport too saw lower inflows — $50 million against $73 million. For mining the fallwas from $666 million to $547 million. The defence sector is yet to receive FDI.

In the 20 months of the NDA government, India has received total FDI of $85 billoncompared to $59 billion in a similar period before that. FDI outflows (Indians investingoverseas) declined 37 per cent, confirming the change in investor sentiment.

17. Trading bloc to India: Cut tariffs or exitFTA talks



India has been told to either agree to eliminate tariffs on most products quickly or leavethe talks on the proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA), being negotiated by the RegionalComprehensive Economic Partnership, the trading bloc comprising 16 Asia-Pacificcountries.

Sources in two ministries told The Hindu that the other RCEP members have issuedthis ultimatum being irked by what they perceive as New Delhi’s “obstructionist,defensive and half- hearted approach” that is “delaying” the conclusion of the talks. Theysaid the apprehensions were voiced at the last round of negotiations in February inBrunei, adding that the 12th round of RCEP talks slated for April 23-29 at Perth inAustral ia could be a “turning point” in the negotiations with India.

In particular, trade negotiators from the other RCEP members, comprising the 10-member ASEAN bloc, and China, Japan, Australia, South Korea and New Zealand wereupset over India’s protectionist stance, “focusing only on the export of manpower” andnot on liberalising trade in goods and other services, as well as investment.

Matters could come to a head as officials in the ministries of External Affairs andCommerce are expected to seek a clear direction from PM Narendra Modi on whether ornot India should be part of the RCEP.

18. Slowdown hits services sector

India’s trade surplus in services has been contracting, mainly due to a sharp drop innon-software services exports, which, according to economists, shows that the globaleconomic slowdown is finally beginning to affect India’s services sector.

In addition, though the overall trade deficit has been decreasing due to low commodityprices, India’s trade deficit with China is worsening which is a worrying trend.



“This trend (of contracting trade surplus in services) is important to watch since theservices trade has been quite resilient and has cushioned against the overall tradedeficit,” D.K. Joshi, Chief Economist at Crisil, told The Hindu .

“On a 12-month rolling sum basis, the services trade balance has fallen to 3.4 per cent

of GDP in February 2016 from 3.9 per cent in February 2014,” according to a paper byNomura research analysts Sonal Varma and Neha Saraf.

The main reason for this, the Nomura paper says, is the sharp decline in servicesexports, from 8.2 per cent of GDP in February 2014 to 7.4 per cent in February 2016.

“Although a drop in software services exports was a driver of the decline, receipts fromtransportation (sea and air), financial services and other business services (consultingand technical/trade-related) were also much lower, and together these non-softwarecategories comprised 73 per cent of the moderation in services exports between Q42013 and Q4 2015,” according to th e paper.

“The global slowdown is finally hitting the services exports and that is where we had acompetitive advantage over China,” D.K. Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor at Ernst andYoung, said.

A research paper by Crisil found that India’s trade deficit with China has beenworsening at an alarming rate.

“Between fiscals 2006 and 2016, it compounded at an annual 30 per cent, or thrice asfast as India’s overall trade deficit,” according to the paper.

“If the trend continues, the trade deficit with China wi ll equal and even surpass whatIndia runs with the rest of the world.”

The reason behind this, according to Mr. Joshi, is that China’s ongoing economicslowdown has meant that it requires lower quantities of the raw materials that itimports from India.

On the other hand, India’s imports from China have not been affected to any largedegree,

“In some sense, it is showing India’s lower competitiveness with regard to China,” Mr. Joshi said. “Such a large trade deficit with a single country is worrying.”

However, there is a possibility that this trend could be short-lived, especially if therupee appreciates in the near term and medium-term, Mr. Joshi said.

19. Govt. casts Aadhaar net wider at banks The government will treat all bank accounts receiving government subsidies as PrimeMinister Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) accounts in a bid to widen the scope of Aadhaar,



according to a senior ministry official working for the Information Technologydepartment.

“In banking terms, there is nothing called as a Jan Dhan acco unt (under PMJDY).Either there is savings, deposits or current account. So, if tomorrow we say all the

beneficiary account is a Jan Dhan account, we are protected by the Supreme Courtorder. We have told the department of financial services (in Finance Ministry) to treat allaccounts getting benefits from the consolidated fund of India be treated as Jan Dhanaccounts,” the official told The Hindu.

Bank accounts of all those who didn’t have a previous account was named as a JanDhan account when the PMJDY scheme was launched, the official said.

The Supreme Court, in an interim ruling last year, had allowed using Aadhaar, aunique identification number, for Mahatma Gandhi National Rural EmploymentGuarantee Scheme, the PMJDY, and pension schemes of states and the Centre.

Although a legal backing to the Aadhaar number has been secured in the Parliament,the government had recently said that it will approach the Supreme Court to widen theuse of Aadhaar number for new schemes since the matter is pending before aConstitutional Bench at present.

“One of the core issues of concern articulated in the court was that we don’t have alegal backing for Aadhaar. I think there is a proper law now. “We will persuade the SCto release more avenues for using Aadhaar,” IT and Communications Minister RaviShankar Prasad had said at a press conference earlier this month while announcingthat over 100 crore people have an Aadhaar number now.

Meanwhile, the government is creating a single household database of citizens, knownas social security platform, in a bid to identify government scheme beneficiaries.

An inter-ministerial meeting was held in the Cabinet Secretariat recently, officials said,and a concept note on the social security platform was circulated.

Since most of the benefits are household entitlements, government will integrate theAadhaar numbers with the National Population Register (NPR) data and Socio-Economicand Caste Census (SECC) data to create a family database along with the socio-economic profile of the beneficiary, officials said.

20. New mining exploration policy mootsincentivesIf reserves are found, private firms will be given revenue share

To make exploration more attractive for private players, the Union government willreimburse the costs to mining firms that fail to find adequate mineral wealth and offerthem a share of the revenue from blocks where they do strike valuable reserves.



However, the exploration firms will not enjoy any preferential right to the blocks wherethey find viable mineral reserves or be eligible for direct compensation from firms thatend up operating the mines they discover, as was earlier envisaged.

The Union Ministry of Mines has set forth these ideas in the final Cabinet note on the

new mineral exploration policy, which was circulated for inter-ministerial consultationsthis week.

“Under the Mines and Mineral (Development and Regulations) Act of 2015,reconnaissance permits cannot be converted into a prospecting licence or a mininglicence, though there was a provision for tha t in the earlier law,” Mines SecretaryBalvinder Kumar told The Hindu .

“So, there would have been no guarantee that a player will get anything out ofexploration,” he said

Mr. Kumar was explaining why the models that were considered earlier — such asgranting the right of first refusal to explorers for forming a mining joint venture withpublic sector firms to tap blocks where they find reserves — seemed out of sync withthe spirit of the new law that mandated auctions for all mineral block allocations.

“So now we are saying if we give you a reconnaissance permit and you manage to findsomething, you will be paid a certain percentage of the revenue throughout the 50-yearperiod of the mining lease,” he said

21. RBI to ease registration process for NBFCs

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will simplify the registration process for non-bankingfinance companies (NBFCs), Deputy Governor R. Gandhi said.

“The new application forms will be simpler and the number of documents required to besubmitted will be reduced. The entire process could be made online for ease, speed andtransparency,” Mr. Gandhi said at a seminar organised by Assocham on Monday.

RBI resumed issuing licences to NBFCs last year.

Mr. Gandhi said the NBFC sector cannot be on a par with the banking sector and thecentral bank’s stance was to “harmonise, not equalise.”

Totally exempting small NBFCs from regulations may not be feasiblefrom the customerservice point of view, he said.

“The rule that we prescribe for a bank cannot apply exactly to NBFCs. Har monisingmeans to remove the arbitrage. ,” he said.



He added that ‘Make in India’ and ‘Start Up’ businesses could offer fresh opportunitiesto NBFCs for growth.

The deputy governor also said the central bank would come out with a discussion paperon peer-to-peer lending (P2P). P2P is where consumers lend and borrow from each other

with the help of an intermediary.“We are going to come up with a discussion paperbecause it (P2P lending) is a new development. We will have to take feedback from allstakeholders. We will discuss about the pros and cons, whether we should be regulatingor not. Based on the feedback we will take the final call,” Mr. Gandhi said.

Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) had come up with a discussion paperexploring the securities aspect of the business. However, RBI is yet to come up with itsown discussion paper from the lending and borrowing side.

The banking regulator will consult SEBI before finalising the norms.

22. FDI inflows hit record $51 bn in April-February last fiscal

India received $51 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI), the highest-ever FDI inflowin a fiscal, during April-February FY16, according to Department of Industrial Policyand Promotion (DIPP) Secretary Ramesh Abhishek.

Mr. Abhishek said the increased FDI inflow was the result of the government’s efforts toimprove the ease of doing business and initiatives such as ‘Make In India.’

“The complex procedures and delays, which were the bane of our system for the last somany decades, are now being gradually dismantled,” he said.



According to data from the DIPP,the previous highest FDI inflow was in FY12 when thecountry received $46.55 billion, which was a 34 per cent increase over $34.8 billion itgot in FY11 However, India recorded its largest-ever percentage increase in FDI when itreceived $22.8 billion in FY07, representing a 155 per cent increase over the $8.9 billionin FY06. This includes equity, re-invested earnings and other capital.

While the DIPP Secretary gave the numbers till February 2016, the DIPP has officiallyreleased data only till December 2015. India received FDI equity (excluding the re-invested earnings and other capital) worth $29.4 billion during April-December periodin FY16. Of this, $10.98 billion was from Singapore and $6.1 billion from Mauritius.

Computer software and hardware sectors received $5.3 billion while services sectoraccounted for $4.2 billion. Automobile and telecom sectors received $1.7 billion and$1.07 billion respectively. Region-wise, the National Capital Territory (comprising Delhi,part of Uttar Pradesh and Haryana) received $10.6 billion while Mumbai got $5.2billion.

Meanwhile, Commerce and Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in a written reply inLok Sabha on Monday, said, “Due to the continuous reforms and initiatives beingundertaken by the government, the FDI equity inflow has recorded a growth of 44 percent in its 21 months tenure (June 2014 to Feb. 2016) from $43.87 billion to $63.16billion over the preceding period of 21 months (Sept. 2012 to May, 2014).”

Though the government plays an active role in investment promotion, “the investmentdecisions of investors are based on the macro-economic policy framework, investmentclimate in the host country, investment policies of the trans-national corporations andother commercial considerations,” she said. The minister said to boost the investmentenvironment and bring in foreign investments, the government had brought in FDI-

related reforms and liberalisation touching upon 15 major sectors of the economy byputting more FDI proposals in the automatic route.

23. ‘GDP growth is not creating enough jobs’ India’s employment growth is begi nning to show signs of a slowdown even as officialdata showed a pick up in GDP growth, according to a study by Care Ratings.

Jobs growth slowed to near-zero during 2014-15 in a sample of 1,072 companies. Thesecompanies created only 12,760 jobs in 2014-15. In the previous year, they had added188,371 jobs.

Employment growth in the sample slowed to 0.3%, the slowest in four years, ananalysis of the annual reports of the companies surveyed in the sample by the ratingsagency showed.

The number of jobs in manufacturing sector companies in the sample, despite thegovernment’s ‘Make In India’ push, declined. Employment growth in the manufacturingcompanies plunged to (-) 5.2% in 2014-15 from 3.2% in 2013-14.



Manufacturing accounted for more than 40 per cent of the jobs, the highest share inemployment, followed by banking (23.0 per cent) and IT (18.4 per cent). “This meansthat the future of job creation would largely be dependent on the growth in this sectorand the low growth in the last 3 years is a cause for concern,” according to the study. Inthe current financial year, 2015-16 too, growth in the sector has ranged around 3 per

cent.

The study on trends in employment in the last four years is based on employmentnumbers provided by companies in their balance sheets. It does not include the impactof outsourcing. One reason the study gives for job creation not showing on the books ofcompanies is the possibility of more jobs getting outsourced — in which case it would beaccounted for elsewhere in the suppliers’ registers. Jobs that were performed byemployees such as security, administrative functions and back office, are increasinglybeing outsourced in many companies.

However, the findings of the latest quarterly survey by the Labour Bureau in theMinistry of Labour and Employment do not support this argument.

The survey released last month shows a decline of 21,000 in contractual jobs during January-September 2015, against an increase of 1.20 lakh in the corresponding periodof 2014.

24. Analysts grow more bullish on oil, OPECposes no threat to rebalancingAnalysts are growing increasingly confident that a near-two-year rout in oil has ended,and raised their price forecasts for a second month running, as healthier demand and a

drop in U.S. shale output balance the market by 2017.

The inability of OPEC and non-OPEC producers to agree to limit oil output at a meetingearlier this month is not expected to slow the rebalancing of global demand and supply.

The survey of 29 analysts projected a slightly more bullish outlook, raising their averageforecast for Brent crude futures in 2016 to $42.30 a barrel, compared to $40.90 in theMarch poll.

Last month’s survey saw an upward revision in 2016 Brent forecasts for the first time in10 months. Brent has averaged about $40 a barrel in 2016. Oil prices are headed for afourth straight week of gains and a rise of around 20 percent in April, their largestmonthly increase in a year.

Analysts said the failure of the Qatar meeting, among the world’s largest producers, toreac h an agreement to keep output at January’s levels has had little or no impact onprices. “The status quo is already such that virtually all producers, except Iran, havelittle to no room to increase production from current levels,” said Raymond Jamesanalyst Luana Siegfried.



Since the April 17 stalemate in Doha, the oil price has rallied 21 percent to its highestsince November.

Iran’s oil output will rise only modestly this year and next, but it will be enough to stopglobal supply and demand from rebalancing in 2016, according to a Reuters poll earlier

this month.

“In the meantime, volatility will remain high as investors intermittently switch focusfrom speculation about production cuts or freezes on the one hand, and existingoversupply, on the other,” A BN AMRO Senior Energy Economist Hans Van Cleef said.

However, a better demand outlook and falling U.S. production, should keep the marketon track to reach supply-demand balance next year.

“Solid global demand growth combined with declining production both domestically (inthe U.S.) and globally, should lead to a meaningfully undersupplied global oil market bymid- 2016,” Raymond James’ Siegfried said.

Over the medium term, however, slower global economic growth could subdue theincrease in demand for oil, analysts said.

Analysts expect U.S. crude futures to average $40.50 a barrel in 2016, up 80 cents fromthe March poll forecast. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has averaged about $35.27 in2016. — Reuters

25. Don’t cut CBU tariffs to sign FTAs:automakersDomestic automobile makers have asked the government not to agree to reduce oreliminate tariffs on Completely Built Units (CBU) for finalising Free Trade Agreements(FTA) with European Union and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)-member countries.

Cutting tariffs on CBU (or fully assembled automobiles) will hurt job creation,technology transfer to local firms and prevent the Indian auto industry from beinginternationally competitive, they said.

RCEP is a proposed FTA among 16 Asia-Pacific countries, including China and India.

In meetings with the commerce ministry officials,the Society of Indian AutomobileManufacturers (SIAM) demanded that before taking forward FTA negotiations with theEU and RCEP members, the government should publish a review of its existing FTAswith the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), Japan and Korea from a‘Make In India’ perspective to show whether these agreements are hurting domesticmanufacturing due to increased imports.



India has been maintaining high duties on CBUs to discourage imports and boost localmanufacturing. The country’s import duty on passenger cars ranges between 60 -100percent (as against the EU’s 10 per cent). RCEP members had just convened the 12thround of FTA talks while the India-EU FTA negotiations have stalled since 2013 after 16rounds.

Mr. Sugato Sen, Deputy Director General, SIAM, told The Hindu that SIAM – noting thatthe EU had been demanding India agree to drastically reduce or eliminate duties onCBUs to help restart the FTA negotiations – had pointed out to the commerce ministrythat the EU had been for long protecting its interests especially in segments like pick-up trucks with a relatively high duty of 22 per cent.

Mr. Sen said, therefore India also should maintain high duties on CBUs to protectdomestic manufacturers.

Speculation on the possibility of India agreeing to reduce or eliminate duties on CBUsas part of the India-EU FTA have led to similar demands from automobilemanufacturing major nations like Japan and Korea.

In a white paper on FTAs,the SIAM said though India had over 20 firms manufacturingcars and utility vehicles, its auto industry had not matured enough.





The Bench faulted the Congress too. “The Congress has not covered itself with glory onthis… If it’s a bluff [on the part of any political party] we shall call it a bluff. We shallnot mince words,” the Chief Jus tice said.

During the arguments, senior advocate and Congress leader Abhishek Manu Singhvi

said there were apprehensions that the Centre could revoke President’s Rule before thecourt gave its ruling.

The Chief Justice said he hoped the Centre “will not provoke us” by revoking Article 356before the verdict.

2. Uttarakhand HC sets aside President’s Rule

The Uttarakhand High Court on Thursday quashed the Union government’s orderimposing President’s Rule on the State on March 27, holding that the situation must beviewed “on a larger canvas of democracy, federalism and the rule of law.”

Deciding that the Congress shall return to power, a Division Bench ordered a floor testof Harish Rawat’s claim of majority in the Assembly on April 29.

The decision is a setback to the Modi government, which had approached the Presidentto prove that there was a breakdown of the constitutional machinery.

In New Delhi, Attorney General Mukul Rohatgi said the government would move theSupreme Court against the High Court order on Friday.







Interestingly, the surveyors found litigants to be ‘hopeful’. Majority of people said theyexpect their cases to be resolved within one year when the case had started. In fact, thelowest income group (earning less than Rs. 1 lakh) is seen to be the most optimistic inthis regard.

The India Human Development Survey also found that a majority of Indians had a‘great deal of confidence’ in the judiciary. But this is not the case everywhere.

“The people of Bastar do n't even go to court or police because they see it as a tool in thehand of the State to oppress them,” says Isha Khandelwal, advocate providing legalassistance to people in Naxal-affected Bastar district of Chhattisgarh.

Researchers and lawyers present d uring the release of survey concurred that ‘access to justice’ should not be equated with ‘access to courts’, which is too narrow. Thediscourse around judicial reform needs to shift from ‘access to courts’ to ‘access to ju

HISTORY

1. ‘Pulakeshin’s famed victory over Harsha was in 618 A.D.’ Copper plate reveals battle date, say Bhandarkar institute researchers

Researchers from the Bhandarkar Oriental Research Institute (BORI), which housesSouth Asia’s largest collection of manuscripts and rare texts, cla im to have fixed the

date of Emperor Harshavardhan’s defeat to the Chalukya King Pulakeshin II bydecoding a copper plate.

The date of Pulakeshin’s great triumph over Harsha in a battle fought primarily withelephants on the banks of the Narmada, can now be fixed at 618 A.D., said Dr.Shreenand Bapat, Registrar, BORI.

Pulakeshin, who ruled from the Chalukyan capital of Badami, challenged Harsha’sconquests. The former had established himself as ‘lord paramount’ of the south, asHarsha had of the north. Unwilling to tolerate the existence of a powerful rival in thesouth, Harsha had marched from Kanauj with a huge force. Such was Pulakeshin’sefficiency in guarding the passes of the Narmada that Harsha was compelled to acceptthe river as the demarcation and retire from the field of battle after losing a major partof his elephant force.

“It was believed that the battle occurred sometime between 612 A.D. and 634 AD. Butnow thanks to this new copper plate, it can be ascertained definitively to have takenplace in the winter of 618- 619 A.D.,” Dr. Bapat said, remarking that the copper platewas received by the BORI from Raghuvir Pai, a noted coin-collector of Mumbai.



Interestingly, in Volume II of the classic nine-volume History of India series (publishedin 1906 and edited by American historian-linguist A.V. Wiliams Jackson), the greatBritish Indologist and historian Vincent A. Smith, with astonishing accuracy, places thedate of the battle at around 620 A.D.

The plate is useful in fixing the details of the coronation of Pulakeshin II in 610-611A.D., said researchers at BORI. Pulakeshin anointed himself king after defeating andkilling his uncle, Mangalesha.

Legend has it that Mangalesha, the regent, wanted to perhaps deny his nephew theChalukya throne which turned uncle and nephew from mutual admirers into bitterfoes.

The plate records the grant of 50 ‘ nivarthanas’ (a unit of land) by Pulakeshin from thevillage Brahmana-Vataviya (in modern-day Paithan Taluka of Aurangabad) to a Vedicscholar Nagasharma.

This donation must have been made by the Chalukya king during his return from theNarmada campaign against Harsha back to his capital Badami in Karnataka, scholarssaid.



CULTURE1. 12th century Buddhist inscriptiondiscoveredA new inscription that sheds more light on the history of Buddhism in Karnataka hasbeen discovered at Lakkundi village in Gadag district.

Research scholar Hanumakshi Godi, who traced this inscription on a private property,said that it was for the first time that an inscription related to Buddhism was found inLakkundi, a place of antiquarian interest with nearly 50 temples, 101 stepped wells anda large number of inscriptions spread over the Chalukya, Kalachuri, Seuna and Hoysalaperiods.

The inscription, whose lower portion has been severed off, makes salutations to Lord

Buddha, ‘dhamma’, ‘sangha’ and Tara Bhagavati.

There are possibilities of the inscription speaking about donations to a Buddhistmonastery located at Lakkundi. Besides, it was among a handful of inscriptions makingspecific reference to the Tara Bhagavati cult of the Vajrayana Buddhism.

The period of this inscription could be assigned to the regime of Hoysala kingVeeraballala II (1173 – 1220 CE).

2. Stolen Buddhist sculpture returned toPakistan govt.An ancient stone sculpture of Buddha’s footprints that was smuggled into the UnitedStates and had been expected to sell for more than $1 million was returned to thegovernment of Pakistan on Wednesday.

The piece, called a Buddhapada , was taken from a Pakistani region rich in Buddhisthistory decades ago. It was returned by New York prosecutors to Pakistani Deputy Chiefof Mission Rizwan Saeed Sheikh, who said it will remain in the city for the time beingand may be exhibited at a museum.

Sheikh said the Buddhapada , weighing nearly 500 pounds, was “an important element

of the cultural history of Pakistan” and he was relieved to have it returned.

A Japanese antiquities dealer pleaded guilty last month to criminal possession of stolenproperty in a scheme to smuggle it into the U.S.

Tatsuzo Kaku made the plea in exchange for a $5,000 fine and a sentence of timeserved and left the country voluntarily. He said he shipped the 2nd-



century Buddhapada from Tokyo to New York to sell it at a gallery, where it wasexpected to fetch $1.1 million.

Scholars and art historians say there’s little truth to the argument. UNESCO initiated aprogram more than a decade ago with funds from the U.S. to preserve images of

Buddha and other works found in the region.

During the time the Buddhapada was stolen, there were no major threats to anyarchaeological sites, said Muhammad Zahir, an assistant professor at Hazara Universityin Pakistan who works in the Swat valley.

Even when the Taliban was present in 2009, the government of Pakistan had plans toprotect or remove ancient Buddhist art from the valley and safely moved museumartifacts during military operations to combat the Taliban, he said.

Zahir said in an email from Pakistan that a far more realistic reason for the looting wasthe demand in the Western and Southeast Asian markets for Buddhist art from theregion.

The repatriated piece is a large stone slab with columns and two large footprints. Withinthe footprints are symbols, including a swastika, a 5,000-year-old Sanskrit symbol thatdenotes auspiciousness and was co-opted by Nazi Germany.

“It’s an ancient piece that speaks to the history and culture of Pakistan that should becelebrated and protected,” Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance Jr. said.

Kaku, who is 70 years old, was arrested in mid-March after a rival art dealer cooperatedwith authorities.

Prosecutors said he was spared prison time in part because he cooperated with anongoing larger investigation. The district attorney’s office and federal agents have been looking into the illegal sale of other antiquities from the same part of the world. — AP



SOCIAL ISSUES

1. 400-year-old ban on women at Shani templegoesMaharashtra CM Fadnavis calls for end to discrimination on the basis of caste, gender

In a big victory to the campaign for gender equality, the Shani Shingnapur temple inMaharashtra on Friday lifted the 400-year-old ban on the entry of women at thesanctum sanctorum.

Soon after the temple trust announced the decision to facilitate unrestricted entry to alldevotees to the core area of the shrine, some women entered the sacred spot and offered

worship. Hours after the decision was announced, Bhumata Ranrangini Brigade leader Trupti Desai, who had led a sustained campaign, reached the Lord Saturn temple andoffered prayers. — PTI

2. Most of rural India still opts for opendefecation: NSS report

More than half the rural population of the country still goes for open defecation, saysthe recently released Swachhta Status Report by the National Sample Survey (NSS)Office. The nation-wide rapid survey was conducted during May-June 2015,concurrently with the 72nd round of the NSS. The survey was to track the government’sflagship programme, Swachh Bharat Abhiyan. The survey estimates that 52.1 per cent

of people in rural India choose open defecation compared to 7.5 per cent in urban India.In the survey, 45.3 per cent rural households reported having a sanitary toilet, while inurban areas, the figure stands at 88.8 per cent. The lowest percentage of householdshaving sanitary toilets was reported in Jharkhand (18.8 per cent), Chhattisgarh (21.2per cent) and Odisha (26.3 per cent). The States with the highest numbers were Sikkim(98.2 per cent), Kerala (97.6 per cent) and Mizoram (96.2 per cent).

Responding to a question in Parliament, the government said that since the launch ofSwachh Bharat Mission (Gramin) on October 2, 2014 there was an improvement of 8.12



percentage points in number of rural households having toilets, with 50.17 per centrural households covered as of February 2016.

According to NSS data, 13.1 per cent of the villages and 42 per cent urban wards havecommunity toilets. However, they were not being used in 1.7 per cent villages and 1.6per cent urban wards. Also, in 22.6 per cent of the villages and 8.6 per cent urbanwards, community toilets were not being cleaned.

In response to a parliamentary question in March, the Ministry of Drinking Water andSanitation said “The main reason for open defecation is behaviour and mindset of thepeople who have continued the practice for centuries.” It also stated that adequateavailability of water for toilets is also a concern.

According to the NSS report, while 87.9 per cent of the urban households were found tohave access to water for use in toilets, only 42.5 per cent rural households had thisfacility. For this situation to improve, under Swachh Bharat Mission (Gramin), theincentive for individual toilet has been increased from Rs. 10,000 to Rs. 12,000, toprovide for water, including for storing water for hand-washing and cleaning.

While the government hasn’t set any fixed targets — since sanitation schemes aredemand driven — it does plan to construct 1.2 crore toilets in the current year.

The toilet construction numbers, however, are to be taken with a pinch of salt, as anaudit report by Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India released in December2015 found that during the UPA-II regime, governments of at least 16 statesexaggerated the data on individual household toilets by over 190 per cent of the actualconstructions. And that of the constructed toilets, around 30 per cent were found to bedysfunctional.



SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

1. NHRC notice on ‘go -slow’ promise

The National Human Rights Commission has served a notice on the Union CommerceMinistry over “private assurances” that were reported to have been given by it to abusiness advocacy group representing U.S. interests that India would go slow ingranting Compulsory Licences (CLs) allowing domestic pharma companies to override

patents held by Western drug-makers and make corresponding generic drugs thatwould be sold at cheaper prices.

The NHRC notice comes after reports that came in March that the United States-IndiaBusiness Council (USIBC) had been verbally assur ed that India’s patent offices wouldtake a restrained approach in handing out licences to produce cheaper, generic versionsof drugs patented by American companies. It had also been reported that at least twoapplications for CLs to domestically produce generic versions of drugs patented in theU.S. were rejected in India last year.

The comments were revealed in a submission earlier this year by USIBC to the U.S.

Trade Representative (USTR), which was in the process of reviewing global intellectualproperty laws for an annual report identifying trade barriers to U.S. companies. TheUSTR has placed India on its “priority watch list” for two years now, saying its patentlaws favour the local drug industry in an unfair manner. “The NHRC is spot on; theMinistr ies are going slow [on clearing applications],” said Leena Menghaney, a lawyercampaigning for access to affordable medicines in India for cancer.



“The government’s decision… was hugely disappointing,” she added, pointing out thateven after the high prices of the drug Dasatinib were documented the government didnot act on the issue.

Dasatinib, the patent for which is held by the U.S.-based Bristol-Myers Squibb, is used

to treat certain types of leukaemia. It was one of the drugs that the Ministry of Healthand Family Welfare had recommended for the grant of CL. “Health Ministry experts hadbeen shown data from cancer hospitals — including Army hospitals — to show thatpatients needed it. But the recommendation for CL was denied on the grounds that thepati ent cohort was too small,” Ms. Menghaney said.

Reports sought

The Commission has sought reports within two weeks from the Ministry of Commerceand Industry as well as of Health. In the notice, the NHRC states that the reportedverbal assurances raise questions on issues that impinge on the right to health ofcitizens in India.

The notice points out that if the government, by invoking the provisions of the IndianPatents Act, grants CLs to manufacture particular drugs, that would increase access toaffordable generic versions of the same drugs, bringing solace to thousands.

“Providing an affordable healthcare system is a basic [and] bounden duty of anygovernment. It is a matter of concern that two applications for grant of compulsorylicence to manufacture generic medicines for treatment of diabetes and cancer wererejected last year,” the Commission says.

In 2012, India denied a patent to German pharma giant Bayer for Nexavar, a“blockbuster” cancer drug for kidney and liver cancer. India granted a CL — it was thecountry’s first — to Natco Pharma, one of India’s leading generic producers, tomanufacture Nexavar at a price that was 97 per cent less than what Bayer’s versioncost. The price fell from Rs. 2,80,000 to Rs. 8,800 a dose.

2. Triple sunset: New planet with 3-starsystem foundScientists have discovered a rare triple-star system with a gas giant planet similar insize to Jupiter.

Researchers at the Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics in the United Statesfound that a binary system once thought to be a single star was actually a pair of starsorbiting one another, and was a part of the triple-star system.

Known planets with three stars appearing in their sky are rare — the new discovery is just the fourth and the closest one to Earth yet, allowing a better look than has beenpossible, researchers said.



The main star is also brighter than the other two, making it easier for astronomers tostudy both the star and the planet. The newly found planet, called KELT-4Ab, orbitsone star. It takes three days to make its way around the star KELT-A, which serves asits sun.

“The other two stars, named KELT -B and C, are much farther away and orbit oneanother over the course of approximately 30 years. It takes the pair approximately fourthousand years to orbit KELT- A,” Phys.org reported.

Close to parent star

The view from KELT-4Ab would likely to be one where its sun, KELT-A, would appearroughly forty times as big as our Sun when it is viewed from Earth, researchers said.

This is because the main star is close to KELT-4Ab.

On the other hand, the two other orbiting stars would appear much dimmer due totheir great distance, shining no brighter than our Moon, the researchers said.

Scientists have known of the existence of the KELT system for several years, but it wasthought that the binary stars were actually just one star.

The triple-star system offers a unique opportunity for scientists trying to understandhow it is that gas giants, such as KELT-4Ab, manage to orbit so close to their star.

The research was published in The Astronomical Journal . — PTI

3. Universe may be full of monster black holesOur universe could be riddled with monster black holes, new research has suggested.

The revelation comes after a black hole with a mass of 17 billion suns was found in alarge, virtually isolated galaxy 200 million light years away.

Black holes are referred to as “supermassive” if they have masses of millions or billionsof times more than the sun. Supermassive black holes with masses of more than 10bnsuns have previously been found at the heart of large galaxies located in dense clustersin the universe. But this is the first time astronomers have found such an objectlurking at the centre of a large galaxy in a relatively empty area of the universe.

“We didn’t expect to see such a huge black hole in a small place,” said Professor Chung -Pei Ma, an author of the study from the University of California, Berkeley.

That, she added, opens up an intriguing possibility. With such galaxies more commonthan rich clusters, such supermassive black holes could be rife.

“What this is saying is that you don’t need these galaxy clusters to grow very massiveblack holes,” said Professor Poshak Gandhi of the University of Southampton, who was



not involved in the study. “That throws a wrench in the works of our understanding ofhow these monster black holes form — it throws the field wide open.”

Writing in the journal Nature , a team of scientists from the U.S. and Germany describehow the discovery of a supermassive black hole at the centre of a galaxy known as NGC

1600 arose from a large study into massive galaxies in the local universe.

Appropriately termed Massive, the study combines data from the Hubble Space Telescope, the Gemini Telescope in Hawaii and the McDonald Observatory in Texas,with the goal of enabling scientists to unpick the secrets of supermassive black holeformation and the relationship of these hefty objects to their galaxy.

By studying the movement of stars within NGC 1600, the astronomers deduced that atthe core of the galaxy lies a monster black hole with a mass equal to 17bn suns.

Strong gravity

“Black holes, by definition, are black — they don’t give out light so it is hard to studythem. But they have very strong gravity so they will make the stars very close to themwhizz around much faster than in their absence,” said Prof. Ma.

“So we needed to study stars at the centre very close to the black hole in order tomeasure its mass.” In the process, the authors made a further discovery, a dearth ofstars in the im mediate vicinity of the supermassive black hole. “They seem to be scaredto get close to the black hole,” said Prof. Ma.

That, she said, could have arisen when two galaxies merged to form NGC 1600. Duringthe event, they argue, monster black holes at the centre of each galaxy could havemoved closer together and begun to circle each other, forming what is known as abinary. The gravitational influence of this system could have destabilised the orbits ofnearby stars and hurled them away from the centre of the galaxy like a slingshot.

“Each time they eject a star [the monster black holes] lose a bit of energy and the binarybecomes smaller,” said Dr Jens Thomas, an author of the paper from the Max PlanckInstitute for Extraterrestrial Physics.

“At some point the two black holes are so close to each other that they merge.” But Prof.Gandhi believes further work is needed to back up the suggestion of a binary system. “Itis possible, but there is not direct evidence for it at this stage,” he said. — © Guardian

Newspapers Limited, 2016

4. New technology helps understand genomesScientists have developed a novel technology that allows them to read and interpret thehuman genome, a breakthrough that may pave the way for new drug targets to treatmany genetic diseases.



The computational method, called TargetFinder, can predict where non-coding DNA — the DNA that does not code for proteins — interacts with genes. This technology helpsresearchers connect mutations in the so- called genomic “dark matter” with the genesthey affect, potentially showing new therapeutic targets for genetic disorders.

Researchers at the Gladstone Institutes in U.S. looked at fragments of non-coding DNAcalled enhancers. Enhancers act like an instruction manual for a gene, dictating whenand where a gene is turned on.

Genes can be separated from their enhancers by long stretches of DNA that containmany other genes.

“Most genetic mutations that are associated with disease occur in enhancers, makingthem an incredibly important area of study,” s aid Katherine Pollard, a seniorinvestigator at the Gladstone Institutes.

“Before now, we struggled to understand how enhancers find the distant genes they actupon,” said Ms. Pollard.

Scientists originally believed that enhancers mostly affect the gene nearest to them. Thenew study showed that, on a strand of DNA, enhancers can be millions of letters awayfrom the gene they influence, skipping over the genes in between.

When an enhancer is far away from the gene it affects, they connect by forming a three-dimensional loop. Using machine learning technology, the researchers analysedhundreds of existing datasets from six different cell types to look for patterns in thegenome that identify where a gene and enhancer interact.

Connections

They discovered several patterns that exist on the loops that connect enhancers togenes. This pattern accurately predicted whether a gene-enhancer interaction occurred85 per cent of the time.

"It’s remarkable that we can predict complex three— dimensional interactions fromrelatively simple data,” said Sean Whalen, a biostatistician at Gladstone.

Performing experiments in the lab to identify all of these gene-enhancer interactions cantake millions of dollars and years of research.

The new computational approach is a much cheaper and less time-consuming way toidentify gene-enhancer connections in the genome.

The technology also provides insight into how DNA loops form and how they mightbreak in disease.

The study was published in the journal Nature Genetics . — PTI



5. Proof to link Zika virus with brain defectsResearchers have now produced evidence of how Zika virus causes brain defect inbabies. Several cases of microcephaly, a rare birth defect in which the brain fails togrow properly, continue to be reported in Brazil following the outbreak of Zika virus,

first detected in the country in May 2015.

To study how the virus causes birth defects in babies, the researchers, from the FederalUniversity of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, used human induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells tomake neural stem cells (NSC), neurospheres and brain organoids.

How quickly the neural stem cells get infected with Zika virus became clear when theresearchers detected it just 24 hours after they were exposed. The researchers used thevirus-infected neural cells and cultured them as neurospheres (a culture systemcomposed of free-floating clusters of neural stem cells). While those cells not infectedwith the virus generated normal neurospheres, the virus-infected neural cells generatedneurospheres with abnormalities. At the end of six days, the virus killed most of theneurospheres.

Organoids exposed

To further investigate the impact during neurogenesis, organoids were exposed to thevirus and followed for 11 days. Patricia P. Garcez from the Federal University of Rio de

Janeiro, the first author of a paper published on Monday in the journal Science , alongwith other researchers, found that the virus reduced the growth of infected organoids by40 per cent compared with brain organoids under control conditions.

To check if dengue virus, a flavivirus with similarities to Zika, caused similar effect onneurogenesis, the researchers infected human neural stem cells with dengue virus 2(DENV2). After six days, significant difference in cell viability was seen between dengue-infected calls and Zika-infected neural stem cells.

The dengue-infected cells were similar to the normal cells and there was no reduction ingrowth of dengue- infected organoids at the end of 11 days. “Our results demonstratethat ZIKV [Zika virus] induces cell death in human iPS-derived neural stem cells,disrupts the formation of neurospheres and reduces the growth of organoids, indicatingthat ZIKV infection in models that mimics the first trimester of brain development mayresult in sever e damage,” they stress.

However, further studies are needed to characterise the consequences of Zika infectionduring different stages of foetal development.

6. ISRO to launch 21 satellites in one shotHigh resolution Cartosat-2C to be set into orbit in May



While the seventh and last of the regional navigation spacecraft is due to be launchedon April 28, space agency Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has lined up arecord-making feat towards the end of May. It will put in orbit 21 small and mostlyforeign commercial satellites along with a larger Indian spacecraft.

The primary passenger on the PSLV-C33 launcher will be the Earth observing, high-resolution Cartosat-2C, weighing around 700 kg.

Offering a resolution of about 60 cm, Cartosat-2C is touted to be the best Indian eye yetin the sky. It will cater to the country’s military requirements. Its camera, among otherfunctions, can spot objects that are 60 cm wide or long - roughly an arm’s length, fromits orbit of around 600 km.

As far as multiple launches go, the PSLV has launched 10 spacecrafts including eightsmall foreign ones in April 2008. Then, too, the main passenger was Cartosat-2A,another defence enabler, giving pictures of 80 cm resolution of the ground below. LastDecember, a PSLV took up six small Singapore satellites into orbit in one go.

NASA holds the 2013 record for placing the highest number — 29 — of mostly smallcustomer satellites in orbit on a Minotaur launcher.

Multiple launches need multiple interfaces between the rocket and the spacecraft, andcoordination with operators of each spacecraft.

ISRO Chairman A.S.Kiran Kumar said such missions must be planned meticulously bytiming the release of each customer satellite carefully without affecting the others.

The launch team must ensure that one spacecraft does not get into the path of theother. The needs of each customer and its spacecraft must be accounted for.

Such many-in- one flights add to ISRO’s capability to service more and more smallsatellites commercially, said an ISRO official familiar with the launch process. “Itspeaks for the versatility of the vehicle which could accept so many spacecrafts atonce,” he said.

3 Indian varsities

According to secondary sources, the small satellites are of masses ranging from one kgto 130 kg. Three are from Indian universities – the 12-kg NIUSAT from the Noorul Islam

University in Kanyakumari; the 2-kgSathyabamaSat; and the 1- kg Swayam from Pune’sCollege of Engineering.

According to the ISRO official, considering the global demand for launching smallsatellites, packing many of them into one PSLV optimises a globally scarce service.Otherwise, satellite operators would have to wait for the next PSLV or look for anotherlauncher.



7. Last satellite of India’s regional navigationsystem launched into orbitIndia’s own navigational system, the set -up for which was completed on Thursday withthe launch of the seventh and final satellite, will be called NAVIC (Navigation withIndian Constellation), Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced after the launch.

The seventh and final satellite of the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System, theIRNSS 1G, was launched into a sub geosynchronous transfer orbit with a perigree(nearest point to earth) of 284 km and an apogee (farthest point to earth) of 20,657 km.

The satellite was launched on board the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV), whichtook off from the Sriharikota launch pad at 12.50 p.m.

With this launch, the IRNSS constellation of seven satellites is now complete. This willallow the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) to focus on the process ofdesigning front end chips which will receive the navigational signals sent out by the

satellites. The system will be similar to the Global Positioning System (GPS) operated bythe United States with 24 satellites and the Glonass, Galileo and BeiDou systems ofRussia, Europe and China respectively.

All satellites will undergo stabilisation testing and verification of their performance overthe next few months before being pushed into use, according to ISRO officials.

An area of 1,500 km from Indian boundaries will be covered under the navigationalsystem. The Prime Minister invited other countries to make use of this system as well.“We have seven neighbours who rely on technology provided by o ther countries. Theycan use Indian services if they want,” he said in a video message addressed to ISRO

engineers.

With an accuracy of better than 20 m being claimed by ISRO, the navigation system willbe offered as an open or Standard Positioning Service and a superior, coded militaryRestricted Service.

“We are now one of five countries with our own navigational system. Today we are freeof dependence on other countries for navigation. Our planes will be able to land withease and accuracy, we can plan d isaster relief better and with our own technology,” aproud Mr. Modi said.

Explaining the name NAVIC, Mr. Modi said the system was dedicated to India’smariners and fishermen who have been navigating using the sun and stars aswaypoints for hundreds of yea rs. “They have shown strength and determination inventuring out to sea for so many years. We have named this system for them, the‘naviks’ (mariners),” he said.

8. Skin cells transformed to suit heart and brain



In a major breakthrough, a team of researchers, including an Indian origin scientist,has transformed skin cells into heart cells and brain cells using a combination ofchemicals.

The team used chemical cocktails to gradually coax skin cells to change into organ-

specific stem cell-like cells and, ultimately, into heart or brain cells.

“Reprogramming a patient’s own cells could provide the safest and most efficient way toregenerate dying or diseased heart muscle,” said one of the researchers DeepakSrivastava, director of cardiovascular and stem cell research at Gladstone Institutes inthe U.S. “This method brings us closer to being able to generate new cells at the site ofinjury in patients,” Sheng Ding, also at Gladstone, noted.

The research lays the groundwork for one day being able to regenerate lost or damagedcells with pharmaceutical drugs. “Our hope is to one day treat diseases like heartfailure or Parkinson’s disease with drugs that help the heart and brain regeneratedamaged areas from their own existing tissue cells,” Mr. Ding added in a p aperpublished in the journal Science .

The researchers used genes to convert scar-forming cells in the heart of animals intonew muscle that improved the function of the heart, using a chemical reprogrammingapproach.

The team conducted two studies using a cocktail of nine chemicals to change humanskin cells into beating heart cells and brain cells. They began the process by changingthe cells into a state resembling multi-potent stem cells, which can turn into manydifferent types of cells in a particular organ.

With this method, more than 97 per cent of the cells began beating and they alsoresponded appropriately to hormones, and molecularly, they resembled heart musclecells, not skin cells. When the cells were transplanted into a mouse heart early in theprocess, they developed into healthy-looking heart muscle cells within the organ.

Neural stem cells

In the second study, published in Cell Stem Cell , the scientists created neural stemcells from mouse skin cells, again using the chemical cocktail consisting of ninemolecules.

Over ten days, the cocktail changed the identity of the cells, until all of the skin cellgenes were turned off and the neural stem cell genes were gradually turned on. — IANS



DEFENCE

1. World military spending up in 2015, India insixth positionIndia is the sixth largest military spender in 2015 having spent $51.3 billion even as theworld spent $1,676 billion reversing a global trend which was on the decline since2011., as per the latest report from the Stockholm International Peace ResearchInstitute (SIPRI).

India moved one rank up from last year accounting for 3.1 percent of global militaryexpenditure. Over a ten-year period from 2006-15 this represents a 43 per cent jump.India is also ahead of countries like France, Germany and Israel who happen to beamong its top arms suppliers.

World military expenditure rose by 1 per cent in 2015, the report noted said it reflectscontinuing growth in Asia and Oceania, Central and Eastern Europe, and some MiddleEastern states.

Sam Perlo- Freeman, head of SIPRI’s military expenditure project said that the militaryspending in 2015 presents contrasting trends. “On the one hand, spending trendsreflect the escalating conflict and tension in many parts of the world; on the other hand,they show a clear break from the oil-fuelled surge in military spending of the pastdecade,” he said in the report.

The U.S. remained by far the world’s largest spender in 2015 despite its defenceexpenditure falling by 2.4 per cent to $596 billion followed by China, Saudi Arabia,Russia and U.K.

China’s expenditure rose by 7.4 per cent to $215 billion.

India ahead of France, Germany, Israel in defence expenditure, says peaceinstitute

2. Militaries of India, U.S. to share facilities

Talks did not make much progress under the UPA government because of the fierceopposition from the then Defence Minister A.K. Antony as the agreements wereperceived too intrusive and would be seen as compromising on India’s nonalignedstance.

The UPA government was also cautious about the sensitivities of both Russia andChina, though New Delhi was moving closer to the U.S. However, under Mr. Modi, New



Delhi has been taking firm steps, indicating its willingness to forge a closer strategicrelationship with Washington.

The tw o countries also agreed to set up a new Maritime Security Dialogue “betweenofficials from our respective Defence and External Affairs Ministries” and conclude an

agreement to improve maritime domain awareness with an arrangement to improvesharing of data on commercial shipping traffic.

“Both countries will also deepen cooperation in Maritime Domain Awareness byfinalising a ‘White Shipping’ Agreement,” he added.

With China in mind, the joint statement reiterated the importance of safeguardingmaritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation and over-flight throughout theregion, including “in the South China Sea.”

In this context, the two countries agreed to start Navy-to-Navy discussions onsubmarine safety and anti-submarine warfare.



ENVIRONMENT, ECOLOGY & BIODIVERSITY

1. Is the mighty Ganga drying up?

Last month, the NTPC plant near Farakka barrage was shut down afterflow dipped

The Ganga that has nourished Indian civilisation for centuries hasrecorded a historically low inflow in its lower reaches this year, going bythe evidence on the ground. The inflow at the Farakka barrage in WestBengal nearly halved, compared with the quantum of water available inthe last two years. The NTPC’s plant beside the barrage had to shutoperations from March 10.

The Hindu obtained local water level data to verify claims of a reducedinflow. A.K. Pal, superintending engineer at the Farakka barrage, said:“On March 29, the discharge observed in the Ganga by the India -Bangladesh joint observation team was 50,710 cusecs, while incomparison the discharge on 29/03/2014 and 29/03/2015 was 91,001cusecs and 83,807 cusecs respectively.”

2. Ballast water bringing invasive species tocoasts



The expansion of seaports and minor ports could pave the way for the arrival of invasivespecies in coastal areas. Scientists fear that ballast water carried by ships is providing avehicle to bring in exotic species.

A recent survey by the Department of Aquatic Biology and Fisheries, University of

Kerala, had recorded the presence of as many as 10 invasive species in the biodiversity-rich intertidal habitats of the Kerala coast. They include one seaweed, one species ofbryozoan, one species of mollusc and seven species of ascidian.

According to a paper presented by R. Ravinesh and A. Biju Kumar of the department atan international conference on aquatic exotics, the distribution of invasive speciesreported from the Kerala coast is likely to have been assisted by shipping. The papersays that the expansion of ports in Kerala has opened ways for the introduction of alienspecies in marine and coastal areas.

The authors point out that the colossal loads of ballast water carried by ships couldtransport fish, viruses, bacteria, algae, zooplankton and benthonic invertebrates toharbours at a faster pace.

3. Govt. notifies new rules on wastemanagement

The Environment Ministry has notified rules making it incumbent on a wide range ofgroups — hotels, residential colonies, bulk producers of consumer goods, ports, railwaystations, airports and pilgrimage spots — to ensure that the solid waste generated intheir facilities are treated and recycled. Though the onus on garbage managementwould continue to be the responsibility of municipal bodies, they would be allowed tocharge user fees and levy spot fines for littering and non-segregation.

Though these rules would take effect from April 6, there would b e a “transition period”of two to five years, beyond which fines would be imposed, said Environment MinisterPrakash Javadekar.

Over the past month, the Central Environment Ministry has notified a bunch of rulesspanning the recycling and treatment of a variety of refuse, including biomedical,plastic and electronic waste among others. “This is an essential component of SwachhBharat (Mission) … only 70 per cent of garbage is collected and of that 30 per cent istreated … the rest is what you see around you,” said Mr. Javadekar at a press briefing.

The rules on solid waste management have been amended after 16 years and a keyprovision is to formalise the profession of rag- picking. “Rag -pickers form a critical armof society…we cannot shoo them away,” said M r. Javadekar. Nearly 62 million tonnes ofwaste are generated annually in India, of which only 11.9 million are treated and nearlyhalf — 31 million — is dumped in landfill sites. According to the Central PollutionControl Board, municipal authorities, as of 2013-14, have so far set up only 553compost and vermin-compost plants, 56 bio-methanation plants, 22 refuse derived fuelplants and 12 waste-to-energy plants.

By 2031, municipal solid waste is expected to increase to 165 million tonnes and, ifuntreated, would require 1240 hectares of land.

According to the new rules, local bodies with a population of one lakh or more wererequired to set up solid waste processing facilities within two years, census towns below



a lakh would be given three years and old and abandoned dump sites would have to beclosed or bio-remedied within five years.

Experts rued the rules as “extremely romantic” because there was no binding provisionon fines. “There ought to have been something concrete on whether the polluter pays,”said Swati Sambyal, Programme Officer, Solid Waste Management, Centre for Scienceand Environment. “Moreover, implementing this across the country would mean thatmunicipalities would have to change several by- laws.”

Municipal bodies will charge user fees and levy spot fines for littering and non-segregation

4. ‘Earth could turn hotter than previouslythought’ Global warming could make the planet far hotter than currently projected becausetoday’s scientific models do not correctly account for the influence of clouds,researchers said this week.

The study in the journal Science was led by researchers at Yale University andLawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

When climate scientists look ahead to how much the planet’s surface temperature maywarm up in response to a doubling of carbon dioxide, they typically predict a rise ofbetween 2.1 and 4.7 degrees Celsius.

But these models overestimate the ability of clouds to reflect back sunlight, andcounteract warming in Earth's atmosphere, researchers said. “We found that theclimate sensitivity increased from four degrees Celsius in the default model to five to 5.3degrees Celsius in versions that were modified to bring liquid and ice amounts intocloser agreement with observations,” said lead author Ivy Tan, a researcher at YaleUniversity.

The problem is most models assume there is more ice in clouds than there actually is.

Icier clouds would gain more liquid in a warming environment, and more liquid inclouds would mean less global warming.

“Most climate model s are a little too eager to glaciate below freezing, so they are likelyexaggerating the increase in cloud reflectivity as the atmosphere warms,” said co -authorMark Zelinka. — AFP

5. Big cat population up by 690





Statistics from TRAFFIC, the wildlife trade monitoring network, show that a minimumof 1,590 tigers were seized by law enforcement officials between January 2000 and April2014, which feed a multi-billion dollar illegal wildlife trade.

More than 700 tiger experts, scientists, managers, donors and other stakeholders willgather to discuss issues related to tiger conservation at tomorrow’s conference.Ministers and government officials from all Tiger Range Countries - Bangladesh,Bhutan, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, India, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Nepal,Russian Federation, Thailand, Vietnam - besides Kyrgyz Republic and Kazakhstan, thathave ranges of snow leopard will participate to decide the next steps in tigerconservation.

Keywords: tiger, wildlife, conservation, Modi

6. Rising heat linked to more reef bleachingSome corals in the Great Barrier Reef are known to be resilient when subjected to risesin temperature, but a study out on Friday warned that this protective mechanism couldsoon disappear.

If ocean surface temperatures rise by as little as 0.5 degrees Celsius over what they areat present, the massive coral bleaching event underway in the famed Australian reefcould spread dramatically, said the findings in the journal Science .

The reason has to do with an innate response to the stress of warming waters thatcorals have shown in the past, which scientists studied by analysing 27 years ofsatellite records for the Great Barrier Reef.

“When corals are exposed to a pre -stress period in the weeks before bleaching, astemperatures start to climb, this acts like a practice run and prepares the coral,” saidlead author Tracy Ainsworth from ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at

James Cook University.

“Corals that are exposed to this pattern are then less stressed and more tolerant whenbleaching does occur,” she said.

However, if sea surface temperatures rise more than two degrees Celsius above a givenregion’s monthly average temperature — which is calculated over the past threedecades — this protective mechanism could be lost and more corals may be damaged,the findings suggest.

Most of the corals that have been protected “will begin to experience single andrepetitive bleaching events when sea surface temperatures are approximately 0.5Celsius higher than present — which is expected to occur within four decades based onhistorical warming rates,” said the study.

Currently, about three-fourths of corals in the Great Barrier Reef benefit from theprotective scenario.

7. 175 countries sign Paris AgreementA total of 175 countries, including India, on Friday signed the Paris climate agreementat the United Nations, a record for a one-day signing of an international accord, theUnited Nations said.

Fifteen countries, mostly small-island states, have already ratified the agreement oncombating global warming. The landmark deal takes a key step toward entering intoforce years ahead of schedule. Never have so many countries signed an agreement on

http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/energy-and-environment/global-tiger-population-up-by-22-per-cent/article8461131.ece







the first available day. States that do not sign on Friday have a year to do so. Theagreement will enter into force once 55 countries representing at least 55 per cent ofglobal emissions have formally joined it. The U.S. and China have said they intend to

join this year. — AP

8. Rare primate sighted in Arunachal PradeshA group of wildlife photographers and biologists in India have reported sighting of a newspecies of primate, the White-Cheeked Macaque, in Arunachal Pradesh.

They narrowly missed being the first in the world to report the species after spotting theprimate on March 30, 2015 and discovering that a group of Chinese researchers hadalready beaten them to it by days. The group from China, led by Cheng Li formallyreported the discovery of the species, from bordering south eastern Tibet, intheAmerican Journal of Primatology in March, 2015. Formally reporting a find in a

journal takes precedence over spotting a species.

Macaques, which are distant cousins of langurs and gibbons, are a hard catch andwhen reported by Dr. Li, it was only the third macaque ever discovered since 1903. TheMentawai macaque (Macaca pagensis) was found in Indonesia in 1903 and Arunachal

macaque (Macaca munzala) in 2005. The new species becomes the 22nd knownmacaque species and the 9th in India.

Uday Borthakur, a geneticist and part of the research and conservation group,Aaranyak, thought he had found something new. “It looked different …maybe a hybridof two existing species. Later we heard about the Chinese group’s discovery,” hetold The Hindu .

The researchers were confident about the newness of their find on the basis ofphotographic records and its several distinguishing characteristics from similar-lookingmacaque species, such as the Rhesus Macaque, Arunachal Macaque, Tibetan macaqueand Assamese macaque. “They have an ev en fur, a relatively-hairless short tail,prominent pale to white side-and chin-whiskers creating a white cheek and round facialappearance, dark facial skin on the muzzle, long and thick hair on its neck, and around male genitalia,” said a statement by A aranyak.

Typically the process of reporting the discovery of a new species to science is ratherelaborate, with a DNA sample and a requirement that a specimen of the species bedeposited in an accredited registry, preceding peer review. “I’m not sure if th e Chinesegroup has reported DNA,” said Mr. Borthakur.

Along with Mr. Borthakur, the Aaranyak team included biologists and wildlifephotographers, namely Ranjan Kumar Das, Dilip Chetry — a primatologist — andprofessional bird guide Binanda Hatibarua. They were on a bird-watching trip to theeasternmost district of India in March 2015, when they had this sighting and managedto take photographs.

“This is an important find for biodiversity in India and shows white -cheeked macaquehas a wider range and popula tion spread than we’ve thought,” said Anindya Sinha, aprimatologist at the National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru.

9. Panama disease stalks banana cultivation inKerala



The Panama disease caused by a soil-borne fungus is threatening banana crops acrossKerala, posing a potential crisis for farmers, even as global efforts to control the diseasegain momentum.

Scientists are concerned that the sporadic cases of infestation could turn into anepidemic. Most of the popular cultivars have shown signs of infestation. Scientists atthe Kerala Agricultural University recommend soil treatment with fungicides for controlof the disease but they are worried that farmers who are yet to recognise the enormity ofthe threat would ignore the need for intervention.

Also called Fusarium Wilt of banana, Panama is caused by the soil-bornefungus Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. Cubense (Foc) . The fungus enters the plant throughthe roots and goes on to colonise the plant through the vascular system. It causesdiscoloration and wilting of leaves, and eventually kills the plant.In the 1950s, Panama wiped out the Gros Michel banana, the dominant cultivar. Overthe years, it spread from Panama to neighbouring countries. A new virulent strain ofthe disease known as Tropical Race 4 (TR4) is now threatening banana crops in Asia,Australia, Africa and the Middle East.

10. Amazon surprises with new reef system



Scientists have discovered a new reef system at the mouth of the Amazon River, thelargest river by discharge of water in the world.

As large rivers empty into the world’s oceans in areas known as plumes, they typicallycreate gaps in the reef distribution along the tropical shelves — something that makesfinding a reef in the Amazon plume an unexpected discovery.

Scientists from University of Georgia in the U.S. and the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil on an expedition to study the Amazon River plume looked for evidenceof a reef system along the continental shelf. The Amazon plume — an area wherefreshwater from the river mixes with the salty Atlantic Ocean — affects a broad area ofthe tropical North Atlantic Ocean in terms of salinity, pH, light penetration andsedimentation, conditions that usually correlate to a major gap in Western Atlanticreefs.

“Our expedition into the Brazil Exclusive Economic Zone was primarily focussed onsampling the mouth of the Amazon,” said Patricia Yager, an associate professor at UGA.

The team used multi-beam acoustic sampling of the ocean bottom to find the reef andthen dredged up samples to confirm the discovery. We brought up the most amazingand colourful animals I had ever seen on an expedition,” Ms. Y ager said.

The Amazon River plume and its effects on the global carbon budget converged with thediscovery of the reef system to provide scientists a wider view of the reef community.Microorganisms thriving in the dark waters beneath the river plume may provide thetrophic connection between the river and the reef. “The paper is not just about the reefitself, but about how the reef community changes as you travel north along the shelfbreak, in response to how much light it gets seasonally by the movement of the plume,”said Ms. Yager.

Reef transitions

“In the far south, it gets more light exposure, so many of the animals are more typicalreef corals and things that photosynthesise for food,” she said. “But as you move north,many of those become less abundant, and the reef transitions to sponges and other reefbuilders that are likely growing on the food that the river plume delivers,” Ms. Yagersaid.

However, the reefs may already be threatened. “From ocean acidification and oceanwarming to plans for offshore oil exploration right on top of these new discoveries, thewhole system is at risk from human impacts,” she said. — PTI



HEALTH

1. One in five adults may be obese by 2025:studyOne in five adults could be obese by 2025, said a major survey on Friday that warned ofa looming epidemic of “severe obesity” with significant health and economic costs.

The ratio of obese adults has more than doubled in the 40 years since 1975, and willclimb further in the coming nine, the research showed. The survey claimed to be themost comprehensive of its kind conducted to date.

It used data from 1,698 studies involving 19.2 million adults from 186 countries whichare home to 99 per cent of the world’s population. Children were excluded.

Of about 5 billion adults alive in 2014, 641 million were obese, it found. The figure wasset to exceed 1.1 billion by 2025.

“There will be health consequences of magnitudes that we do not know,” author MajidEzzati of Imperial College London told AFP of the research published by TheLancet medical journal.

“Obesity and especially severe and morbid obesity, affect many organs and physiologicalprocesses.

“We can deal with some of these, like higher cholesterol or blood pressure, throughmedicines. But for many others, includi ng diabetes, we don’t have effective treatment.”'

Body Mass Index

People are divided into healthy or unhealthy weight categories based on a universally-adopted measure dubbed Body Mass Index (BMI) — a ratio of weight-to-height squared.

A healthy BMI ranges from 18.5 to 24.9.

One is considered underweight below 18.5, overweight from 25 up, and obese from 30 — when the risk of diabetes, stroke, heart disease and some cancers escalatesmassively.

With a BMI of 35 one is categorised as severely obese, and from 40 upward as morbidlyso.



Among men globally, obesity tripled from 3.2 per cent of the population in 1975 to 10.8per cent in 2014 (some 266 million), and among women it rose from 6.4 per cent to 14.9per cent (375 million), said the survey — 12.9 per cent combined.

This was equivalent to the average adult, 18 and older, being 1.5 kg heavier every

decade. “If the rate of obesity continues at this pace, by 2025 roughly a fifth of men (18per cent) and women (21 per cent) will be obese,” according to a statem ent by TheLancet . More than six percent of men and nine percent of women will be severely obese.

Fewer underweight people

The ratio of underweight people in the world declined at a slower rate than obesity grew,said the authors — from about 13.8 per cent in 1975 to 8.8 per cent for men, and 14.6per cent to 9.7 per cent for women.

“Over the past 40 years, we have changed from a world in which underweightprevalence was more than double that of obesity, to one in which more people are obesethan underweig ht,” said Mr. Ezzati.

At current rates, more women will be severely obese (a BMI of 35 or more) thanunderweight by 2025, and world will miss its stated target of halting obesity at 2010levels.

In 2014, world’s fattest people lived in the island nations o f Polynesia and Micronesia,where 38 per cent of men and more than half of women were obese, said the study.

Nearly a fifth of world’s obese adults (118 million) lived in six high -income countries — the U.S., Britain, Ireland, Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

The U.S. was home to one in four severely obese men and almost one in five severelyobese women in the world.

At the other extreme, the paper said, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia and Eritrea had the lowestBMI numbers in the world, with averages as low as 20.1. More than a fifth of men inIndia, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Afghanistan, Eritrea and Ethiopia, and a quarter ofwomen in Bangladesh and India, were underweight. — AFP

2. New front opens in war on superbugs

A newly-discovered antibiotic-resistant gene is threatening to open a new front in thewar against superbugs by rendering a last-resort drug impotent, experts warn.



The gene’s resistance to colistin, a life -saving medication which has been around for 60 years, is the latest frustration for physicians battling disease with a shrinking arsenal ofantibiotics to treat a wide variety of ailments, many once easily curable.

Dubbed mcr-1, the resistance-conferring gene easily transfers between bacteria, benign

or otherwise, found in humans, animals or the environment.

First identified in China last November, the gene has since been discovered in livestock,water, meat and vegetables for human consumption in several countries, and inhumans infected with E.coli - – one of the disease-causing bacteria it targets.

For the first time, mcr-1 has now also been found living in the gut of healthy humans, aconference of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases(ESCMID) heard in Amsterdam this weekend.

‘Antibiotic crisis’

“(A) key element for the emergence of superpathogens (superbugs, or drug-resistantgerm strains) has made its way to our bodies,” researcher Aycan Gundogdu of Turkey'sErciyes University told delegates.

“It is (only) a matter of time (before) the dissemination of mcr -1 gene will be prevalent inthe clinic, bringing the world closer to an antibiotic crisis.”

Colistin has been available since 1959 in order to treat infections caused by Gram-negative bacteria — a category including the food-poisoning germs E-coli andSalmonella, as well as Acinetobacter which can cause pneumonia or serious blood andwound infections.

It was abandoned for human use in the 1980s due to high kidney toxicity, but is widelyused in livestock farming, especially in China.

As bacteria have started to develop resistance to other, more modern drugs, colistin hadto be brought back as a treatment of last resort in hospitals and clinics.

Now resistance to that too is becoming a problem.

Gundogdu and a team analysed DNA in faecal samples of individuals from China,Europe and Turkey.

Of the 344 Chinese study subjects, six harboured the gene in their gut – a known majorreservoir of drug resistance, the team found.

Humans as hosts

“They are healthy people. They are hosts, they are carrying this gene,” Gundogdu said.



Why is it scary? Because water treatment “can't eliminate these bacteria or these genesperfectly,” he said.

“After treatment, this water directly goes to the environmental water. And then we, thepeople, use this water for fishing, for many things, which means there is a circulation.”

— AFP

3. Health cover: Too little, too scarce

Over 80 per cent of India’s population is not covered under any health insurancescheme, says the latest National Sample Survey (NSS) released on Monday. The datareveals that despite seven years of the Centre-run Rashtriya Swasthya Bima Yojana(RSBY), only 12 per cent of the urban and 13 per cent of the rural population hadaccess to insurance cover.

Around 86 per cent of the rural population and 82 per cent of the urban populationwere not covered under any scheme of health expenditure support, the data showed.

Further, it was found that coverage is correlated with living standards, as in urbanareas, over 90 per cent of the poorest residents are not covered, while the figure is 66per cent for the richest residents. According to the report, “The poorer householdsappear unaware or are beyond the reach of such coverage, both in rural and urbanareas.”

Showcase without reach

“This has been evident for a while. RSBY has become a showcase tool than actuallyreaching people in any large numbers.

Instead, it basically produces an assembly line of patients for the private hospitals andis actively putting our health sector in a crisis. There is global empirical evidence thathealth systems that pour tax payers money into outsourcing treatment to the privatesector, ratchet up the cost of care, while not provi ding any care to those who need,” said



Dr Amit Sengupta, General Secretary of the India chapter of the People’s HealthMovement.

Private doctors emerged as the single-most significant source of treatment in both ruraland urban areas. The survey found that 72 per cent of the treatment provided in rural

areas and 79 per cent in urban areas was availed in the private sector.

In the previous round of this survey, the corresponding figures were 78 per cent in ruralareas and 81 per cent in urban areas, which shows that the overall share of publicsector saw a slight increase.

The rural population spent, on an average, Rs.5,636 for hospitalised treatment in apublic sector hospital and Rs.21,726 at a private sector hospital.

The biggest hurdle in seeking medical treatment was “financial constraint”, reported byover 55 per cent and 60 per cent people in rural and urban areas, respectively. In ruralareas, the next most important reason was “no medical facility available inneighbourhood”, accounting for 15 per cen t cases, while this figure was just 1.3 percent for urban areas.



CONFERENCES AND SUMMITS

1. Focus on safeguards frameworkPrime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in the U.S. capital to attend the two-day NuclearSecurity Summit (NSS), an initiative of President Barack Obama to coordinateinternational efforts to prevent terror organisations from acquiring nuclear weapons ormaterial.

The summit will have leaders from more than 50 countries and four internationalorganisations — the European Union, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),the Interpol, and the U.N. India will circulate its national progress report on nuclearsecurity measures at the summit and Prime Minister Modi will make an interventionduring the plenary on April 1. The summit begins with a banquet hosted by Mr Obamaon Thursday.

Since the first NSS in 2010, international measures have reduced the risk of nucleartheft and made the illicit transportation of nuclear material difficult.

Around 3800 kg of vulnerable fissile material has been secured and 329 sea andairports around the world now scan cargo for radioactivity.

But the spectre of terrorism has only grown bigger in the meantime as the Islamic Statehas more resolve and resources to seek a nuclear weapon than Al-Qaeda ever had.

Contact group

While it will be open for the next U.S. President to convene more summits in the coming years, this year’s summit will conclude with the formation of five action plans onexisting international platforms that will continue with the nuclear security efforts.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the INTERPOL, the U.N., the GlobalPartnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction, and theGlobal Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism will coordinate the global cooperation onnuclear security. After this year’s summit, the network of sherpas , or the expertofficials from different countries, who have been helping their leaders prepare for thesesummits, will continue to coordinate with each other as a Nuclear Security Contact

Group.

Some experts have pointed out that the fragmentation of efforts going forward mayundo the gains made by these summits. But the hope is that the annual ministerialmeetings of the IAEA that started last year, will make nuclear security part of its topagenda.The second IAEA ministerial meeting is in December 2016.

India vulnerable



India is a source of nuclear material and a potential target of nuclear terrorism. WhileIndia takes pride in the security of its nuclear installations, ‘orphan sources’ i.e deviceswith radioactive materials outside regulatory and security measures could pose seriousrisks. According to a recent report by the Washington DC-based Nuclear ThreatInitiative, India also has groups that want to acquire nuclear material. The report that

ranked India low in nuclear security measures, cited corruption as a key reason thatcould compromise its nuclear facilities. The government of India does not take thisreport seriously, but U.S. officials repeatedly cite it to make various points. “India’snuclear materials’ security conditions could be improved by strengthening laws andregulations for on-site physical protection, control and accounting, and mitigating theinsider threat, and ensuring protection of materials during transport is in line withIAEA guidance,” the report said.

Security experts have identified at least four types of specific threats that terror outfitspose. These groups could acquire a nuclear weapon from the arsenal of a nuclear state;they could acquire enough fissile material to construct an improvised nuclear device — this knowhow exists outside governments too; they could acquire radioactive materialfrom civilian sources such as hospitals or university laboratories that could be mixedwith conventional explosives to make a radioactive dispersal device or ‘dirty bomb.’

Terror groups could also sabotage a nuclear facility leading to large-scale loss of livesand destruction.

Russian absence

The strained relations between the U.S. and Russia has led to the latter skipping thesummit. U.S. and Russia are two countries that have the largest nuclear stockpiles andthe best experience in dealing with them. Their disagreements could limit the prospectsof the international cooperation on the issue. The U.S. officials who said they were

disappointed by the Russian decision, however, pointed out that cooperation betweenthe two countries continues despite the tension. They point to the fact that Russia tookthe responsibility to remove the highly enriched uranium from Iran recently, iscooperating on the New START Treaty and has removed 1,300 tons of chemical weaponsfrom Syria in recent years.



AWARDS

1. AP wins Public Service Pulitzer for Asiaseries

The Associated Press won the Pulitzer Prize for public service on Monday for a seriesthat exposed slavery and vicious abuse in the Southeast Asia fishing trade, leading tothe release of 2,000 captives and broad reforms in an industry that is a major supplierof seafood to the United States.

The Pulitzers are in their centennial year, and the winners announced by ColumbiaUniversity reflected in part the changes sweeping the media landscape. Ken Armstrongof The Marshall Project , an online outlet founded 17 months ago, and T. ChristianMiller of ProPublica , another digital news organisation, won the explanatory reporting

prize for a harrowing account of a botched rape investigation.

One year after magazines became eligible in some Pulitzer prize categories, The NewYorker r eceived two prizes: for Emily Nussbaum’s television criticism, and for The ReallyBig One , Kathryn Schulz’s ominous article about the potential for a major earthquakein the Pacific Northwest, which won for feature writing.

In an honour that was widely predicted, the musical Hamilton , a hip-hop retelling ofthe Founding Fathers story, received the prize for drama. The musical’s creator andstar, Lin- Manuel Miranda, reacted joyfully on Twitter, writing: “PULITZER?!”

International reporting

Alissa J. Rubin of The New York Times won the prize for international reporting, for anexamination of the abuse and injustice faced by women in Afghanistan.

The Times also won for breaking news photography, sharing the award with ThomsonReuters for a searing collection of images of migrants seeking asylum in Europe. Twoother newspapers won two prizes apiece.

Farah Stockman of The Boston Globe won the commentary prize for her columnsexamining the legacy of busing and segregation in Boston, and a photographer for TheGlobe , Jessica Rinaldi, captured the feature photography award. — New York TimesNews Service

2. Japanese honour for N.K. SinghFormer bureaucrat and parliamentarian N. K. Singh will receive one of Japan’s highestcivilian honours for promoting economic, educational and cultural ties between Indiaand Japan.



Mr. Singh, who is a former Member of the Planning Commission, will receive the ‘Orderof the Rising Sun, Gold and Silver’ and is among 91 foreign recipients to be honouredduring the 2016 Spring Imperial Decoration of Japan on May 10. Emperor Akihito of

Japan is expected to be present during the investiture ceremony.

“The Orders of the Rising Sun are conferred in recognition of distinguishedaccomplishments of an individual. The Presentation Ceremony, Investiture of the Orderof the Rising Sun, Gold and Silver Star will be held at the Imperial Palace in Tokyo,” aPress Statement from the Embassy of Japan informed.

The statement from the Embassy of Japan acknowledged Mr. Singh’s contribution toenhance Japan-India educational ties through his association with the NalandaUniversity.





2. Jenny Diski, chronicler of madness, dead

Jenny Diski, a British writer who channelled the turmoil of her early years, whichincluded suicide attempts and confinement in mental hospitals, into a stream of richlyobserved and mordant novels, memoirs and essays, died on Thursday at her home inCambridge, England. She was 68. The cause was a lung tumour and pulmonaryfibrosis, her agent, Peter Straus, said. Ms. Diski got off to a late start as a writer. Shewas almost 40 when she published her first novel, Nothing Natural , about a singlemother embroiled in a sadomasochistic relationship that leads to a mental breakdown.

Ms. Diski went on to explore madness, depression and isolation in nearly a dozennovels and a series of memoirs; some of them, like Skating to Antarctica (1997)and Stranger on a Train: Daydreaming and Smoking Around America WithInterruptions (2002), masqueraded as travel books. She contributed more than 100essays to The London Review of Books . After Ms. Diski found out that she hadinoperable lung cancer and pulmonary fibrosis in the summer of 2014, she startedwriting a chronicle of her illness and treatment for The London Review . It also includedreflections on her childhood and on her tangled relationship with Doris Lessing, theNobel Prize-winning writer, who took her out of a mental hospital when she was ateenager and into her London home. The memoir, In Gratitude , was published thismonth in Britain. — New York Times News Service



OP-ED

Rare frogs and the circle of life The new insights on the life stages of a species of dancing frog in the Western Ghatsreported in the journal PLoS One serve as a reminder, if any were needed, that keyfeatures of the rainforests are vital to the survival of less-known species. As abiodiversity-rich mountainous realm of plants and animals, many of which are endemicto the region, the Western Ghats are an acknowledged hotspot. What the research onthe tadpoles of the dancing frog Micrixalus herrei reveals is that such animals cancomplete their life cycle only if critical features of the natural landscape are preserved,and human pressure on habitats is consciously reduced. Specifically in the case of theIndian dancing frog, the availability of shallow streams with sandy depressions enablesthe laying of eggs and development of tadpoles, that then spend some time under thesand. Such invisible phases of the life cycle of species are often not widely known ordiscussed, and therefore may not find a place in rapid environment impact assessments

when a project is proposed. In fact, the range of such frogs revealed by newer methodssuch as DNA bar coding has not been sufficiently documented, as scientists from theUniversity of Delhi, the University of Peradeniya and the Gettysburg College in theUnited States who studied the dancing frog point out. It is therefore vital that thehabitat of amphibians in the Western Ghats, a unique part of the world that haslandscapes ranging from scrub to evergreen forests, be given utmost protection asscientists document its richness.

If amphibians are considered indicators of the health of ecosystems, their fate aroundthe world is cause for worry. Of about 7,300 known species, a third are threatened andtheir populations are declining owing to habitat destruction, chemical pollution, climate

change, disease and invasive species, among other factors. In the Western Ghats thethreat level is high for an estimated 40 per cent of amphibian species, even as more arebeing discovered. Deficiency of data for a third of the frogs and related species herehighlights the need for continuous and intensive research. In the case of the ancientpurple frog from the same region, which surprised the world with its unusualappearance, colour and small size when it was described a dozen years ago, there is apersistent threat in the form of excessive hunting of tadpoles by tribals for food.Fortunately, the efforts of scientists to explain the uniqueness of such animals isbeginning to yield results, and tribal communities are willing to consider alternatives tomass capture during the breeding seasons. It is this rich diversity that the WesternGhats Ecology Expert Panel led by Madhav Gadgil recognised, and sought, correctly, toprotect from unsustainable human pressures. Frogs may not have the charismaticstature of many bigger animals, but often they are the keystones that hold together thearch of life represented by several diverse animals.

Tata to CorusWhen Tata Steel paid out a hefty $13.1 billion to acquire Corus in 2007, ChairmanRatan Tata described it as a defining moment for the company. It is not hard to see whyhe thought this may be so. It made Tata Steel’s capacity grow three times, put the



company on the global map, and spread the risks of the business of making steel. Theinvestment was made in a climate when there was a tremendous buzz about outwardforeign direct investment (FDI), a time when a clutch of Indian industrialists werepersuaded to see value in making foreign investments at extremely heady prices, whichwere sought to be justified on the basis of over-optimistic profit projections and growth

forecasts for the world economy. In hindsight, it is apparent that the acquisition was abad strategic decision, but it would have been difficult, if not well nigh impossible, topredict su ch things as the Eurozone’s slide into recession and the abrupt andunexpected slowdown in China. The damage was compounded by cheap Chinese steelflooding western markets.

The move by Ratan Tata’s successor Cyrus Mistry to explore a sale of Tata Steel’s U .K.steelmaking business is not going to change the fortunes of the company in a hurry. Itremains to be seen whether buyers can be found and if so what prices they are willingto fork out for plants operating in an industry that seems set for a protracted andsevere winter. But given the circumstances, in which the Indian company’s profitabilityis eroded by its operations in Europe, the decision to bolster a still-lucrative core byparing the company’s debt from the Corus acquisition is probably the best course ofaction. It remains to be seen how the U.K. government will react to this decision. Therecould be an attempt to nudge the company into accepting a restructuring proposal. Butgiven that the company’s European operations have lost almost $5 billio n since 2010and the net debt surpassed the cost of the Corus acquisition by the end of lastDecember, it may take a lot of doing to get the company to change its mind. While thedecision to divest itself of the U.K. business is a bold one, it could be said that thecompany took a tad longer than it should have in arriving at that decision. Arguably,foreign investments made by some Indian companies during the extended period of thecommodity boom were influenced too much by the ambition or desire to scale up for thesake of doing so. For instance, the billions of dollars invested by some of the country’s

industrialists in sectors such as coal at the peak of the commodity supercycle havecome to no good. But it may be worth pointing out that some of the acquisitions haveindeed paid off. When Ratan Tata acquired Jaguar Land Rover, there were those whowondered about the wisdom of the purchase. Still the gamble has worked, and thelosses notched up at the domestic businesses of Tata Motors have been more thanoffset by the profits earned by one of Britain’s most iconic carmakers.

Who will heal our drug industry? There has been little done by either the influential pharmaceutical industry or thegovernment to improve the quality of medicines sold in less-regulated markets like India

On March 11, the Supreme Court dismissed two Public Interest Litigations (PILs) that Ihad filed praying for an urgent reform of India’s drug regulatory framework. Both PILswere part of an effort that I personally funded and led for the last two and a half years.

The motivation for both PILs came directly from my experience as a whistleblower in theRanbaxy case. The data fabrication and duplicity that I discovered at Ranbaxy led me toresign from the company and report the violation of law to the U.S. Food and DrugAdministration (USFDA). That case ended with penalties of $500 million on Ranbaxy



and, more importantly, led to an increased scrutiny by the USFDA and other foreignregulators. This also resulted in a heightened focus on quality-related issues within theIndian pharmaceutical industry.

Unfortunately, the entire focus on improving quality has been targeted at only those

manufacturing facilities that make products for export to lucrative Western markets. There has been little done by either the industry or the government to improve thequality of medicines sold in less-regulated markets like India — and its poorerneighbours in Asia and in Africa.

Negative health outcomes

As an Overseas Citizen of India (OCI), it alarmed me that substandard medicines werecausing negative health outcomes, an increasing antibiotic resistance and a waste ofpublic money. I initially tried approaching the government to highlight the issues. In2014, I managed to secure a meeting with the then Health Minister. He appeared to beuninterested. I then spent the next two years meeting or trying to meet retired andserving bureaucrats in the Ministry of Health to impress upon them the urgent need forreform. The uniformly consistent answer I received comprised an advice to approach theSupreme Court through a PIL. I was told that the pharmaceutical industry is politicallyvery powerful and has used its influence in the past to block reforms initiated by thegovernment. As a result, I re-focussed my energies on working with a team of lawyers tolay the ground work for the PILs that were heard earlier this month.

This was a difficult, expensive and time-consuming process. There are no academicbodies or think tanks which have researched the issues with focus on India’s drugregulatory framework.

In the last few months, we embarked on a massive research exercise, which involvedtrawling through numerous government reports, filing over 125 Right to Information(RTI) applications and extracting information from different state regulators on themanner of enforcement of the Drugs and Cosmetics Act, 1940.

What we discovered was alarming because the issue was worse than I had everimagined. Successive reports of the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) had foundan alarmingly high rate of substandard medicines being prescribed in publicly-fundedprogrammes like the Central Government Health Scheme (CGHS) and places like theRailway Hospitals and the Armed Forces Medical Stores Depots (AFMSD). The CAG’saudit report of the AFMSD, which serves our Armed Forces Personnel and their

families, showed the percentage of locally procured substandard drugs at a high 32 percent in one year.

A Parliamentary Standing Committee Report in 2012 had discovered that Europeancompanies were selling medicines in India that had not been approved in their homecountries, or, for that matter, in any developed country. A subsequent report noted thatthe Ministry of Health had failed to investigate the officials who granted such ‘illegal’approvals despite the Ministry giving a written commitment to Parliament.



The story of ignored recommendations repeated itself in the case of the ExpertCommittee headed by Dr. V.M. Katoch in 2012 and another Expert Committee headedby Dr. Ranjit Roy Chaudhury in 2013. The latter had recommended making mandatorybasic quality testing such as bioequivalence studies for all generic drugs. The DrugConsultative Committee (DCC) rejected the recommendation on the grounds that India

apparently lacked the infrastructure. In the same breath, it encouraged such testing forexports because countries like the U.S. will not accept any drug formulation which isnot proven bioequivalent.

This consistent pattern of the government ignoring recommendations by its own expertsis mirrored in the enforcement of India’s existing, already weak, drug regulations. Wefound that investigations conduced by drug inspectors in individual States were mostlya sham since they lacked the necessary resources to coordinate their activities acrossdifferent States. Often, the manufacturer would be located in Himachal Pradesh orUttarakhand and the substandard drug would be sold in States like Karnataka orMaharashtra. Only a minority of such cases resulted in a prosecution. Even in thosecases, judges wilfully ignored the mandatory sentencing provisions of at least one yearof imprisonment, preferring instead a “simple imprisonment till the rising of the court”.

This allowed the convicted person to walk free as soon as the judge rose for the day.Monetary fines were in a lenient five-digit range for products worth lakhs or crores.After a comprehensive study, it was clear to us that the system was dysfunctional atevery stage.

What made matters worse was that even States like Tamil Nadu, where the druginspectors are of a high calibre, could do little to stop the flooding in of substandarddrugs from Himachal Pradesh or Uttarakhand. This is because only the governments inthe respective States can cancel the licences of the erring drug manufacturers locatedthere. We discovered that expert committees — beginning in the year 1955 — have

repeatedly recommended that licensing be made centralised. Further, two legislativeefforts in 2007 and 2013 to centralise such regulations failed because of sabotage bythe Indian pharmaceutical industry.

The PILs I filed offered the best chance to start with a clean slate. As we see from thearguments being proffered by the industry to challenge the ban on the Fixed DoseCombinations in the Delhi High Court, it is a daunting process to reform the system.And the matter before the court is only a small slice of the bigger problem. There iscomplicity in the creation of this dysfunctional system amongst all levels of the officialmachinery and the current regulatory framework is riddled with holes.

The effects of substandard medicines and poor drug regulations that lead to their saleare similar to the effects of climate change. They are difficult to quantify and sometimeshard to prove but this is certainly not a mere academic issue. Apart from a failure tocure diseases, the effects of such substandard drugs include growing antibioticresistance and the birth of deathly superbugs. The long-term effects will be devastatingto public health, especially to the poor and vulnerable.





Terror and talks

In the past, in response to a Pakistan-sponsored terror attack, New Delhi would alwayslay the blame at Paki stan’s door by charging the latter of either sponsoring the attack ornot having done anything to stop it. Post-Pathankot, New Delhi continues to put the

onus on Pakistan, but with a difference: it asked Islamabad to join the investigationsand help find the perpetrators, which the latter enthusiastically did. This new strategyto deal with Pakistan-based terror, state sponsored or not, has led to a demonstrablechange in Pakistan towards Indian concerns and charges.

Consider the following: Pakistan reportedly provided intelligence warning about apossible terror strike in Gujarat by Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)cadres in early March; in mid-February, Pakistan lodged an FIR against unknownpersons in the Pathankot terror attack case; and JeM chief Masood Azhar was placedunder custody after the airbase attack. Moreover, Mr. Sharif recently said at a rally inMuzaffarabad: “Vajpayee told me that he was stabbed in the back because of Pakistan’smisadventure in Kargil, especially during the process of [the] Lahore Declaration.Vajpayee was right. I would have said the same thing — he was certainly backstabbed[in Kargil].”

Proposals for anti-terror cooperation are not new in the India-Pakistan context. InSeptember 2006, Pervez Musharraf and Manmoha n Singh decided to set up an “India -Pakistan anti-terrorism institutional mechanism to identify and implement counter-terrorism initiatives and investigations.” In March 2007 they held the first meeting inIslamabad and “discussed the parameters of the Ant i-Terrorism Mechanism and agreedthat specific information will be exchanged through the Mechanism for (i) Helpinginvestigations on either side related to terrorist acts and (ii) Prevention of violence andterrorist acts in the two countries.” They also agreed to meet “on a quarterly basis, any

information which is required to be conveyed on priority basis would be immediatelyconveyed through the respective Heads of the Mechanism.” Thanks to bureaucraticresistance, and the lack of political will, the mechanism did not survive beyond fourmeetings, and was abandoned after the Mumbai attack, having achieved nothing.

The only post-26/11 attempt at intelligence cooperation was Pakistan considering thepossibility of sending the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief to India to jointlyinvestigate the Mumbai terror attack. But the visit, of course, never happened. Any new

joint initiative to fight terror in the region, therefore, is a welcome, indeed a muchneeded, one.

However, the Modi government is under a lot of pressure for having allowed thePakistani JIT to visit Pathankot as, according to critics, it would mean “allowing theperpetrator of terrorism to investigate it”. While it is perhaps not out of place to arguethat the Pakistani JIT’s visit may not really lead to any conviction, this still is a majorvictory for India politically. By sending its JIT to Pathankot, Islamabad has not onlyadmitted that the perpetrators are Pakistani nationals (as opposed to completelydenying it) who should be investigated, but also, more importantly, shown willingnessto engage in a terror investigation at India’s demand without linking it with the





the Line of Control and the International Border become silent ever since the two sideshave begun a fruitful dialogue in December last year?

Medical Council needs urgent therapy

It is a strange incongruity that in a democratic country with over 1.2 billion people, thesystems of health-care delivery and medical education are poorly regulated, expensive,opaque and, by the government’s own admission, considerably corrupt. In December,the Centre acknowledged the need to modernise the Medical Council of India (MCI), theapex body that was temporarily superseded six years ago in the wake of a corruptionscandal. The functioning of the MCI has been controversial on several counts,culminating in the arrest of its president in 2010 on a graft charge. Reviewing itsrecord, the Standing Committee on Health and Family Welfare expressed shock in arecent report tabled in Parliament that a body like the MCI, which sets ethical norms formedical professionals, could itself be headed by someone who was arrested forcorruption. The report is a severe indictment of the Council and the Centre, for failingto stop the sale of medical seats in private colleges for capitation fees going up to Rs.50lakh, and allowing a single, all-powerful agency heavily influenced by corporatehospitals to provide accreditation to institutions and assess their quality, ignoringblatant conflicts of interest. Clearly, a thorough clean-up in the manner medicaleducation and health-care institutions are regulated is overdue; no compromise shouldbe made on transparency, public interest and the highest ethical standards in doingthis.

Comprehensive reform of the MCI should begin with the separation of functions:approving standards and accreditation requirements for medical education, fixingnorms to assess the competence of medical graduates and laying down ethical practiceguidelines. Here, it is worth considering the suggestions made by the government-

constituted committee of experts led by Ranjit Roy Chaudhary, notably the creation of aNational Medical Commission to oversee education and policy, and separate boards forundergraduate and postgraduate training, assessment of institutions and medicalethics. It is certainly untenable for the Centre to retain the present structure of theMCI, which seems designed to benefit vested interests. Inducting non-medicalprofessionals of integrity and community health experts to regulatory bodies would helpadvance public interest. The NDA government would also do well to follow up thedemand of the parliamentary committee for a time-bound probe into the curiousphenomenon of a large number of inspectors from Gujarat and Bihar being sent forvisits during 2014, in the absence of clear guidelines on selecting evaluators. The largergoal of a revamp should be to produce medical professionals, especially postgraduates,

in such numbers that would improve the doctor to population ratio and ensure theiravailability across the country. The possibility of having an exit test for medicalgraduates at the end of their course and before they start practising, as a measure ofstandardisation across States, is worth debating. The commercialisation of healtheducation needs to be given a quick burial.

Reviving a good idea



It was a good idea in the first place, but unfortunately it did not survive judicialscrutiny. By recalling a three- judge Bench’s 2013 order striking down the NationalEligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET) and agreeing to hold a fresh hearing on a reviewpetition by the Medical Council of India, the Supreme Court has now revived the idea ofholding a national test to ascertain the aptitude and suitability of those seeking to

study medicine anywhere in the country. Introduced in 2010 through amendments toexisting regulations relating to medical and dental admissions, NEET had a fewlaudable objectives: saving students the trouble of writing multiple entranceexaminations to medical courses in State-run and private institutions, curbing theincreasing commercialisation of higher education in medicine, and ensuring atransparent admission process in private, unaided institutions which thrive on sellingMBBS and postgraduate medical specialty seats to the highest bidder. However, itencountered opposition from two influential quarters. One, State governments wereupset with the implicit centralisation of medical education in the idea of a national test.

They feared that NEET would undermine their reservation policy. Some like Tamil Nadusee all entrance tests as elitist and against the interests of poor and rural students. Andtwo, private institutions, especially those established by minorities, were against anyinterference in their admission process, arguing that their unfettered right to regulatetheir own admissions had been upheld by an 11-judge Supreme Court Bench in T.M.A.Pai Foundation(2002). When the institutions approached the Supreme Court, a three-

judge Bench, by a two-one majority, agreed with them that the regulations introducingNEET violated their constitutional rights.

The dissenting voice of Mr. Justice A.R. Dave, who ruled that NEET could be conductedto regulate admissions without impinging on minority rights or breaching thereservation norms of various States, was in a lost cause then. His reasoning had greatforce: NEET merely creates a national pool of eligible candidates from among whomcolleges and institutions were free to select those belonging to any preferred minority

group or any reserved category. In a curious turn of events, Mr. Justice Dave now headsthe Constitution Bench that will revisit the entire case. The Bench has said the majorityin the earlier verdict had not followed binding precedents and pronounced a hasty orderwithout internal discussion among the judges. The recall of the earlier judgment evenbefore the review has been fully heard has created some confusion. NEET may be backin place, and it is possible that it could be held at least for postgraduate medicaladmissions this year. However, NEET’s validity has not yet been upheld. States whichhad obtained the interim stay against NEET may believe that they are still entitled to goahead with the present admission process. The legal position in such States requiresclarification. An early disposal of the review petition is needed both to put in place a freeand transparent admission process and to eliminate any confusion.

Accidents and criminal liabilityIt is not god or divine chance but human error and negligence that cause accidents. Thecollapse of a portion of a flyover under construction in Kolkata that crushed to death 24people and injured scores of others points to gross mismanagement and neglect by theconstruction company IVRCL, as well as poor oversight by the Kolkata MunicipalCorporation, run by the ruling Trinamool Congress. The project, which began in 2008



as part of the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission, was delayed followingobjections from local residents, difficulties in land acquisition, want of mandatoryclearances and cost escalation. It acquired a fresh life only recently with West BengalChief Minister Mamata Banerjee asking for the work to be completed before theAssembly election in April-May. The contractor was allowed to continue as further

delays in implementation would have been politically inconvenient for theadministration. More than three-fourths of the work had been completed at the time ofthe accident, when construction was on at a frenetic pace. Nothing can explain thecollapse of a 100-metre section of the 2.2-km flyover other than the failure to adhere tosafety norms and the deviations from standard operating procedures by the builder.Attempts by representatives of the builder to first suggest it was an “act of god”, hintingperhaps that it was the result of an unexplainable disaster, and later to claim that itcould have been the consequence of an explosion, have so far not been substantiated byaccounts of eyewitnesses or evidence on the ground. Indeed, such explanations are butfeeble efforts to evade responsibility for a disaster brought about by criminal negligenceand wanton disregard of safety norms.

The scale of the tragedy, which saw pedestrians and passengers in vehicles passingthrough the busy junction on Vivekananda Road trapped under concrete slabs andmetal structures, should prompt the State government to rethink the way such projectsare executed and awarded. The tragedy is all the more heart-rending because theaccident was entirely preventable. Instead of indulging in a blame game, and trying toshift responsibility for the loss of lives on to the previous Left Front government, ChiefMinister Banerjee must take corrective measures and ensure an impartial investigationinto the cause of the accident. To say that the builder had been blacklisted does notabsolve the government of its regulatory and monitoring responsibilities. If there issufficient evidence of prima facie guilt, those in the administration who did notdischarge their regulatory role must be made to stand trial for their acts of omission

and commission, and not just the private builder for the seemingly gross negligence. The Kolkata flyover collapse is another reminder that accidents are not unfortunateincidents beyond human control, but man-made tragedies that are wholly avoidable.When they do occur, accountability must be clearly fixed.

Understanding the Islamic State

After every fresh outrage claimed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (IS) — like therecent terrorist attacks in Brussels and the suicide bombing of a football stadium nearBaghdad, which killed dozens and injured hundreds — a standard debate ensues: does

Islam condone these atrocities against civilians? With its extreme violence and nihilisticmindset, the IS seems a death cult bent on senseless destruction. But the group justifies its violence, especially against civilians, with selective interpretations of Islamictexts that are rejected by a majority of the world’s Muslims.

In its slick propaganda, the IS emphasises two major themes: a righteous and idyllic lifefor “true” Muslims in its self -declared state in parts of Syria and Iraq, and an ideologythat sanctifies violence as the only means for Sunni Muslims to achieve power and



glory. The group is highly sophisticated in its use of social media and other propagandato sow fear among its enemies, and to entice alienated Muslims living in the West to“emigrate” to its territory.

Spreading intolerance

But the mastery of those modern tools is underpinned by IS ideologues cherry-pickingthe sources and thinkers they choose to imitate, so they end up with austere readingsof Islamic texts that run counter to a millennium of moderate understandings,including tolerance for other faiths. Like other militant movements, especially al-Qaedaand its offshoots, the IS is inspired by a group of religious scholars across Islam’shistory who advocated the idea of declaring other Muslims as infidels or apostates, and

justifying their killing. This notion of takfir is central to the ideology of most of today’sIslamist militant groups, who have killed far more Muslims than non-Muslims.

Since the 1960s and 1970s, militant movements and some Islamic regimes haveimposed austere interpretations of the Koran and of Islamic law, the Sharia. Contrary topopular perceptions in the West, Sharia is not a monolithic system of medieval codes,set in stone and based on cruelty and punishment. Since Islam was founded in theseventh century, the body of law has co-evolved with different strains of Islamicthought: tolerance versus intolerance, forgiveness versus punishment, innovativeversus literalist.

Today’s Islamist militants and rep ressive regimes — especially Saudi Arabia, which hasused its oil wealth to export its Wahhabi doctrine by building mosques and dispatchingpreachers throughout the Muslim world — are obsessed with literalist interpretations ofSharia and punitive aspects of the Koran, as opposed to strands that emphasiseforgiveness. The weight of Islamic history skews toward moderate understandings, but

in recent decades these regimes (which also include Iran, Pakistan, and Sudan) andmilitants have used their influence to breed intolerance.

The Salafi trend

To believers, Sharia is more than a collection of laws — it is infused with higher moralprinciples and ideals of justice. Sharia literally means “the path to the watering hole”,an important route in the desert societies of pre-Islamic Arabia. Historically, Islamic lawis based on four sources: the Koran; the sayings and traditions of the ProphetMuhammad (the Sunnah); analogical reasoning; and the consensus of religiousscholars. Most Islamist militant groups favour a literalist reading of only two sources:

the Koran and the Sunnah, disregarding most legal reasoning and interpretationdeveloped over 1,400 years. This is the Salafi trend in Islam.

Modern day militants like those of the IS are particularly keen to show that they arefollowing the path set by a group of medieval Islamic authorities respected by mostSalafis. In the 13th century, as the Mongols swept across Asia and sacked Baghdad, theMongol warrior Hulagu, a grandson of Genghis Khan, threatened to overrun the Levant,an area of the eastern Mediterranean centred around modern-day Syria and Lebanon.



While many Muslim scholars at the time lined up to support the Mongols, one juristforcefully rejected the invaders. Ibn Taymiyya, an Islamic scholar from Damascus,issued several fatwas (religious rulings) against the Mongols — and al-Qaeda, IS, andother militants still quote those rulings today.

The Wahhabi strain

After Hulagu, some Mongol leaders nominally converted to Islam, but Ibn Taymiyyaconsidered them infidels. He also argued that it was permissible for believers to killother Muslims during battle, if those Muslims were fighting alongside the Mongols. Ibn

Taymiyya is the intellectual forefather to many modern-day Islamist militants who usehis anti-Mongol fatwas — along with his rulings against Shiites and other Muslimminorities — to justify violence against civilians, including fellow Muslims, or to declarethem infidels, using the concept of takfir . The IS often quotes Ibn Taymiyya in itsArabic tracts, and occasionally in its English language propaganda, as it did in itsmagazine, Dabiq , in September 2014.

Ibn Taymiyya also inspired the father of the Wahhabi strain of Islam that is dominant inSaudi Arabia today, the 18th century cleric Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, whodecreed that many Muslims had abandoned the practices of their ancestors. Wahhabbelieved Islamic theology had been corrupted by philosophy and mysticism. He arguedthat Islamic law should be based on only two sources: the Koran and the Sunnah. Hedismissed analogical reasoning and the consensus of scholars, two sources that hadhelped Islamic law evolve and adapt to new realities over time.

Many of the practices he banned were related to Sufism and Shi’ism, two forms of Islamhe particularly abhorred. For Wahhab, visiting any grave sites violated the Muslim tenetof tawhid , or the oneness of God, which was the most important Wahhabi doctrine. To

venerate anything other than the one God was shirk , or polytheism, a crime Wahhabisbelieved should be punishable by death.

Today, Saudi Arabia is built on an alliance between two powers: the ruling House ofSaud and clerics who espouse Wahhabi doctrine. Wahhabis seek to return the religionto what they believe was its “pure” form, as practised in seventh century Arabia.

Rise of extremist movements

Of course, radicalism needs more to breed than just rhetorical and religious inspiration.As Arab nationalist leaders and military rulers rose to power in the 1950s and 1960s,

they violently suppressed Islamic movements, including peaceful ones. In Egypt, theregime of Gamal Abdel Nasser clamped down on the populist Muslim Brotherhood, andthat helped lay the ideological foundations for the emergence of violent Islamicmovements in the following decades.

The most militant thinker who emerged from that period was Sayyid Qutb, aBrotherhood leader, and swept up in Nasser’s crackdown. After enduring nine years ofprison and torture, Qutb published a manifesto in the 1960s, Milestones Along the



Road , in which he argued that the secular Arab nationalism of Nasser and others hadled to authoritarianism and a new period of jahiliyya , a term that has particularresonance for Islamists because it refers to the pre- Islamic “dark ages.” Qutb declaredthat a new Mu slim vanguard was needed to restore Islam to its role as “the leader ofmankind”, and that all Arab rulers of his time had failed to apply Islamic law and

should be removed from power. Qutb argued that it was not only legitimate, but areligious duty for “true” believers, to forcibly remove a leader who had allegedly strayedfrom Islam.

Nasser’s regime executed Qutb in 1966, and he became a martyr for the cause. Hisideas lived on and they inspired a new generation of militant leaders, especially Osamabin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who is now the leader of al-Qaeda afterbin Laden’s death. And while the IS’s ideologues do not quote Qutb as frequently as al -Qaeda’s leaders have, he clearly inspired the group’s rejection of contemporary Arabregimes and its effort to create a transnational state.

Like its predecessors, the IS reads Islam’s history and its foundational texts selectively,choosing the thinkers and parts that fit into its vision of brutality, Sunni dominance,and constant war with pretty much everyone else. It is important to remember that, fora long time, there have been other paths.

Mohamad Bazzi is a journalism professor at New York University and a former MiddleEast bureau chief at Newsday . He is writing a book on the proxy wars between SaudiArabia and Iran.

The group is highly sophisticated in its use of social media and other propaganda tosow fear among its enemies, and to entice alienated Muslims living in the West to‘emigrate’ to its territory.

Like its predecessors, the group reads Islam’s history and its foundational textsselectively, choosing the thinkers and parts that fit into its vision of brutality. It isimportant to remember that, for a long time, there have been other paths

The need to pre-empt nuclear terrorism The world’s major nations seeking to develop nuclear power, with one notableexception, gathered in Washington last week for the Barack Obama administration-ledNuclear Security Summit (NSS), a platform to discuss strategies to block terror groupssuch a s the Islamic State from obtaining radioactive material and setting off a “dirty

bomb”, or worse. The absentee from the high table was Vladimir Putin, the President ofRussia, which houses the largest number of nuclear weapons — some 7,300 warheads,compar ed to the U.S.’s 6,970 and India’s 120. Russia’s absence, apparently owing toMr. Putin’s diplomatic stand -off with Mr. Obama over the crisis in Syria and Iraq, to anextent doomed the fourth and final NSS to piecemeal rather than dramatic goals.Nevertheless, the Summit saw the 50-odd participant-nations celebrate the creation of astrong legacy in detecting, intercepting and securing vulnerable and illicitly traffickednuclear materials, including pre-emptively safeguarding stockpiles of highly enriched



uranium (HEU). Mr. Obama has doggedly pursued the vision of a de-nuclearised worldthat he outlined in his 2009 Prague speech. Following this vision, at least 2,965 kg ofcivilian HEU, the equivalent of 100 or more bombs, has been moved to safeguardedsites in the six years since the NSS began. Even if this only constitutes 2 to 3 per centof total supplies, with nearly 98 per cent remaining in opaque military stockpiles, it is a

good start.

India’s achievements in the realm of improving nuclear security hav e been considerableduring this time, including in establishing a rigorous legislative framework fordeveloping nuclear resources and a Global Centre for Nuclear Energy Partnership, thecontribution of $2 million towards the Nuclear Security Fund, and participation in UNand IAEA joint mechanisms to strengthen nuclear security. However, along with Russia,China and Pakistan, India has been frustrating the West as a hold-out that refuses tosign a 2014 Nuclear Security Implementation initiative. The pact was joined by morethan two-thirds of the participating states and is arguably the most significantinstrument to build a robust nuclear security system based on national commitmentsto the application of international principles and guidelines, including peer reviews. Inclosed-door meetings, New Delhi may also have been questioned on disquieting signalssuggesting that its nuclear materials may be less than secure. A March 2016 HarvardUniversity study cautioned that after inspecting nuclear reactors, American officials hadranked Indian nuclear security measures as “weaker than those of Pakistan andRussia”. Worldwide, the alarms for nuclear terrorism are likely to be blinking red: acase in point is the discovery by the Belgian police that IS conducted surveillance of thehome of an officer at a Belgian nuclear site that held large stocks of HEU. India cannotbe complacent over securing vulnerable nuclear material, and the first step has to be awillingness to speak openly about the risks of terrorism and sabotage posed by itsclandestine nuclear weapons development sites, and not just on its safeguarded civiliannuclear energy programme.

The road not takenOn March 31 and April 1, leaders of 52 countries including India came together inWashington DC for the fourth Nuclear Security Summit. Held every two years since2010, these summits started with the recognition of the risks posed by plutonium andhighly enriched uranium (HEU), the key ingredients for making nuclear weapons, andaimed to “secure all vulnerable nuclear material in four years”. Despite this high -levelpolitical attention, and fanfare, these summits have achieved little. To make mattersworse, countries that in 2010 were producing plutonium and highly enriched uraniumcontinue to do so, and the dangers from nuclear weapons have been neglected.

The main failings were of conception and a political willingness to settle for easyoptions. Despite the expansive declarations of the need “to maintain effective security ofall nuclear materials, which i ncludes nuclear materials used in nuclear weapons”, thesummits narrowed their focus to civilian holdings in non-nuclear weapon states. Thismaterial is already being monitored by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)inspectors and, more importantly, is but a tiny fraction of actual global stockpiles.Some numbers will help put this in perspective.



Nuclear haves and have-nots

Closing the 2016 Nuclear Security Summit, U.S. President Barack Obama summed upwhat has been achieved in the six years since th is effort started: “We’ve now removed orsecured all the highly enriched uranium and plutonium from more than 50 facilities in

30 countries — more than 3.8 tons, which is more than enough to create 150 nuclearweapons.” This may sound like a lot, until one looks at the scale of the actual problem.

Since 2006, the International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM), an independent groupof arms-control and non-proliferation experts from 17 countries, has been keeping trackof HEU and plutonium around the world. In Global Fissile Material Report 2015, IPFM’smost recent annual assessment of stockpiles, it was estimated that there is about 1,370tons of HEU in the world, “enough for more than 76,000 simple, first -generation fissionimplosion weapons” with about 99 per cent of this material held by nuclear weaponstates, mostly Russia and the United States. The IPFM estimated the global stockpile ofseparated plutonium as about 505 tons, enough for about 1,30,000 nuclear weapons.About 98 per cent of this material is stored in the nuclear weapon states. Takentogether, this gives a total global stockpile of almost 1,900 tons of nuclear weapons-usable material.

To be sure, IPFM’s stockpile figures are unofficial estimates — most of the nuclearweapons states have not declared their fissile materials stocks — but there is reason toassume the overall figure is reasonable. In his opening remarks at the 2016 summit,Mr. Obama said “at hundreds of military and civilian facilities around the world, there’sstill roughly 2,00 0 tons of nuclear material”.

The subcontinental race

No one at the Nuclear Security Summit talked specifically about HEU or plutonium inSouth Asia. This is despite that fact that India and Pakistan, in many ways, lie at thecentre of concerns for those wanting to reduce the risks from fissile materials. For astart, the two countries are among the four states in the world that continue to produceHEU and plutonium for weapons, the other two being Israel and (possibly) North Korea.

There are no official reports of the sizes of Pakistani and Indian stockpiles of HEU andplutonium. The IPFM estimates that India and Pakistan each have a stockpile of aboutthree tons of HEU. In addition, India is estimated as of end-2014 to have a stockpile ofabout 0.6 tons (600 kilograms) of weapons-grade plutonium, while Pakistan has about0.2 tons (200 kilograms). India is also believed to have separated about 5 tons ofreactor-grade plutonium — material that can be fashioned into nuclear weapons but

was not made for that purpose. India has another 0.4 tons of reactor-grade plutoniumthat it has placed under IAEA safeguards and thus is not available for use in weapons.Pakistan, so far, has no stockpile of reactor-grade plutonium.

Many, including Mr. Obama, have recognised that plutonium is a problem. Speaking inSeoul, South Korea, in 2012, he stated, “We know that just the smallest amount ofplutonium — about the size of an apple — could kill hundreds of thousands and spark



a global crisis.” This is why “we simply can’t go on accumulating huge amounts of thevery material, like separated plutonium, that we’re trying to keep away from terrorists”.

This insight, shared by almost all countries with nuclear energy, has been lost onIndia’s Department of Atomic Energy, which is com mitted to the separation of

plutonium from the spent fuel from nuclear reactors (dubbed “reprocessing”). It hasalso pursued the construction of a special kind of nuclear power plant called a fastbreeder reactor that makes more plutonium than it consumes as fuel. Most countrieswith nuclear energy have never gone down this route; of the few countries that havetried, most have abandoned it. Nonetheless, India continues to pursue this goal despitethe fact that the two technologies underlying this way of generating nuclear energy,reprocessing and fast breeder reactors, have proven hugely expensive and highlyproblematic.

But nuclear developments in India and Pakistan did come up at the 2016 summit. Inhis wrap-up statement to the media, Mr. Obama pointed out two major obstacles tonuclear disarmament. The first was that “it is very difficult to see huge reductions inour nuclear arsenal unless the United States and Russia, as the two largest possessorsof nuclear weapons, are prepared to lead the way”. The second was “we’d need to seeprogress in Pakistan and India... making sure that as they develop military doctrines,they are not continually moving in the wrong direction”. He is correct on both counts.

No sign of scaling down

Any real progress towards ending the grave danger posed by nuclear weapons tohumankind must address the brute fact that the United States and Russia had about14,700 nuclear weapons (as of 2015), and the other seven nuclear weapon states held acombined total of about 1,100 weapons. Worse yet, both the United States and Russia

have launched massive long- term nuclear weapons “modernisation” programmes, whichin the case of the United States is estimated to cost as much as $1 trillion over the next30 years. For a President who started o ff promising in Prague in 2009 that the “UnitedStates will take concrete steps towards a world without nuclear weapons”, themodernisation programme represents Mr. Obama’s greatest failure.

Similarly, the nuclear situation in South Asia is bad and getting worse, just on asmaller scale. And this has been the failure of South Asian leaders. Both countries aredeveloping nuclear arsenals that are basically scaled-down versions of those created bythe superpowers during the Cold War. India has developed a variety of land-basedmissile types and is operationalising the Arihant nuclear-powered submarine, to be

armed with the 700-km range K-15 or 3,500-km range K-4 nuclear missiles. Pakistan,for its part, has been developing air-launched, ground-launched and sea-launchedcruise missiles and an array of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, some with ranges ofover 2,000 km. It also has a naval strategic forces command and may arm some of itsconventional submarines with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles, and, in the long term,seek to build its own nuclear-powered submarine.



Pakistan also is seeking nuclear weapons to use on the battlefield. These pose specialchallenges; as the White House Press Secretary explained, “Tactical nuclear weaponsthat are designed for use on the battlefield… are a source of concern because they’resusceptible to theft due to their size and mode of employment… the threshold for theiruse is lowered” and these weapons create “the risk that a conventional conflict between

India and Pakistan co uld escalate to include the use of nuclear weapons”.

Just as India clings to its plutonium ambitions, Pakistan refuses to budge on itstactical nuclear weapons. General Khalid Kidwai, who for 15 years was responsible forthe country’s nuclear weapons programme, insists that “Pakistan would not cap or curbits nuclear weapons programme or accept any restrictions”.

The future looks bleak. Years have been wasted securing small amounts of nuclearmaterial while real nuclear dangers have grown. To address the nuclear threats thatactually imperil the world, the focus should be on getting states to make a clearcommitment to eliminate nuclear weapons and agree to concrete and urgent plans toeliminate nuclear arsenals and the nuclear material stockpiles that make thempossible.

Towards restorative criminal justice

The way criminal justice is designed and administered today hardly serves any of the purposes for which it is set up: towards securing life and property. It does not detercriminals because of the delay and uncertainties involved in its processes andridiculously ineffective punishments it imposes on those few who get convicted. Itprovides wide discretion to the police and the prosecution, rendering the systemvulnerable to corruption and manipulation and endangering basic rights of innocentcitizens. It ignores the real victim, often compelling him/her to find extralegal methodsof getting justice. Above all, it puts heavy economic costs on the state for itsmaintenance without commensurate benefits in return. With nearly 30 million criminalcases pending in the system (the annual capacity of which is only half that number),and with another 10 million or more cases being added every year, whatever is left ofthe system is bound to collapse completely unless some radical alternatives are adoptedurgently.

Faced with a similar situation, the U.S. adopted plea bargaining and diversion toadministrative and quasi-judicial institutions in a big way several years ago with theresult that less than a third of criminal cases are allowed to go for trial. Diversion is

followed in the U.K. as well. Recently, it reformed its criminal justice system giving acentral role to the victims to direct their cases in the system. In Russia, Australia andseveral other countries, the victim is brought centre stage through what is called“restorative justice” to replace unproductive aspects of conventional criminal processes.On the recommendation of the Committee on Reforms of Criminal Justice System(2003), India also adopted “plea bargaining” under Chapter XXI -A of the the Code ofCriminal Procedure to take out from the system cases punishable up to seven years ofimprisonment for negotiated settlement without trial. However, the Bar and the Bench



seem to be allergic to plea-bargained settlement, with the result that even after a decadeof its introduction, it remains a dead letter not invoked by those caught in the system.

Differentiated penal codes

The committee on criminal justice reforms recommended a threefold strategy to arrestthe drift and to prevent total disaster. First, the law, substantive and procedural,requires a fresh comprehensive look based on changes in society and economy as wellas priorities in governance. The guiding principle in the reform process should bedecriminalisation wherever possible and diversion, reserving the criminal justice systemmainly to deal with real “hard” crimes. A suggestion was made to divide the Penal Codeinto four different codes — a “Social Offences Code” consisting of matters whi ch areessentially of a civil nature and can be settled or compounded through administrativeprocesses without police intervention and prison terms; a “Correctional Offences Code”containing offences punishable up to three years’ imprisonment where parole, probationand conditional sentences can be imposed in lieu of prison terms and can be handledunder summary/summons procedure where plea bargaining can be liberally invokedwithout the stigma of conviction; an “Economic Offences Code” where property offen ceswhich affect the financial stability of the country are dealt with by a combination ofcriminal and administrative strategies including plea bargaining (both on charge as wellas on punishment) with a view to making crimes economically non-viable; and an“Indian Penal Code” which will have only major crimes which warrant 10 years’imprisonment or more or death and deserve a full-fledged warrant trial with allsafeguards of a criminal trial. The police and prosecution systems will accordingly bereorganised making them more specialised, efficient and accountable.

The second strategy proposed by the committee was institutional reform of policeprocesses, including investigation of crimes, professionalisation and rationalisation of

court systems with induction of technology and limiting appeal procedures to theminimum required. It is here the committee sought to bring in a bigger and responsiblerole to victims of crime in the whole proceedings. The Code of Criminal Procedure(Amendment) Act of 2006 adopted a small part of the recommendation on victims andleft the rest for future consideration. This did not help in changing the system to avictim-centric one; nor did it support a restorative approach necessary to make thesystem serve its reformatory and deterrent functions meaningfully.

Victim-oriented criminal justice

What does “victim -centric” mean in the criminal justice system? It means restoring the

confidence of victims in the system and achieving the goal of justice in whichever sensethe idea is conceived. Toward this end, the system must confer certain rights on victimsto enable them to participate in the proceedings, including the right to be impleadedand to engage an advocate in serious offences, the right to track the progress of theproceedings, the right to be heard on critical issues and to assist the court in thepursuit of truth. Second, victims have the right to seek and receive compensation forinjuries suffered including appropriate interim relief irrespective of the fate of the



proceedings. Victims may also submit a victim impact statement to the courts settingout the effect of the crime on their lives.

Today, a victim-centric approach in criminal justice can also mean healing the woundsthrough reconciliation and restorative means of justice rather than letting it get

prolonged in the system, leading to frustration and more wrongs. Restorative justice ismore akin to indigenous systems of quick, simple systems of resolution of wrongs whichenjoy community support, victim satisfaction and offender acknowledgement ofobligations. Thus perceived, restorative justice takes on board all three parties — theoffender, the victim and the community — in a harmonious resolution of the injury,maximising the sense of justice and restoring peace and harmony in the community.

Restorative justice is distinct from mediation though it involves meetings and dialoguesto fix responsibility for wrongdoing and to find a solution acceptable to all three parties.More importantly, it directly addresses victim needs and therefore emphasises theprivate dimensions of a public wrong. It is not a substitute to the formal criminal justicesystem, but a good backup to reduce its workload and to increase the sense of justice inthe system as a whole. In a sense, the c oncept of “plea bargain” is closer to the idea andprocesses of restorative justice and therefore nothing new to criminal proceedings.

A distinctive feature of restorative justice is that it looks at the needs of crime victimswhich are today outside criminal justice concerns, leading to frustration and alienationof victims from the system itself. The victim is deprived of information on why he shouldsuffer the injury and how it is going to be repaired. He would perhaps feel vindicated ifthe offender were to make an effort to right the harm, even if partially, by restitution.

The victim would respect the system if it could make the offender assume responsibilityand persuade him to transform himself. Restorative justice therefore aims to respond tothe needs of the victim and help sustain interpersonal relationships while reinforcing

offender obligations. Justice, in other words, should engage with victims, offenders andthe right-thinking members of the community in an effort of reconciliation and repairingof harm. This approach begins with a concern for victims and their needs even when nooffender has been identified or apprehended.

Limiting the adversarial model

Several countries across the world are now replacing the adversarial model of criminal justice partly or wholly with different models of restorative justice, yielding promisingresults in crime control. The process is more collaborative, consensual and inclusive,that is characteristic of indigenous systems of justice. The role of the state is reduced

and the participation of communities encouraged. This is not to be confused with thekhap panchayat model of arbitrary decision-making by a few elders of the locality. Dueprocess requirements are followed in restorative justice while participation is enlargedand made transparent, inclusive and accountable. While doing so, the system respectsdiversity as a social fact, interrelatedness as a virtue and correcting/healing the harmas a major objective.



Crime and violence constitute a major impediment for development and socialintegration for a plural society like India. The adversarial model of criminal justice, withpunishing the offender as its only aim, has proved costly and counterproductive.Communities have to be involved and victims given rights in finding ways to correct thewrong. While keeping the adversarial system for certain serious and complex offences,

India needs to experiment with more democratic models aimed at reconciliation andrestoration of relationships. Restorative justice is a welcome idea particularly in thematter of juvenile justice, property offences, communal conflicts, family disputes, etc.What is needed is a change of mindset, willingness to bring victims to the centre stageof criminal proceedings and to acknowledge that restoring relationships and correctingthe harm are important elements of the criminal justice system.

N.R. Madhava Menon is former Vice-Chancellor of the National Law Universities inBengaluru and Kolkata, Director of National Judicial Academy in Bhopal and presentlyHonorary Director of the M.K.N. Academy of Continuing Legal Education in Kochi.

A balancing act in RiyadhPrime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Riyadh reflects a resolve to deepen India’sengagement in West Asia. The visit comes eight months after Mr. Modi travelled to theUnited Arab Emirates, and it is expected be followed by one to Israel. This demonstratesNew Delhi’s tightrope -walking foreign policy towards the region. Saudi Arabia, inparticular, has been a traditional source of energy and of remittances for India. Inrecent years, bilateral ties had acquired a security dimension with both countriesstepping up cooperation in counter-terrorism and intelligence-sharing. While Mr. Modiis clearly trying to build on the existing momentum, he is also seeking to upgrade theeconomic and security cooperation into a strategic partnership with Riyadh — anapproach that is in line with the wider foreign policy outreach to improve ties with close

allies of Pakistan. The timing of Mr. Modi’s visi t is significant. It has been reported thatthere are tensions in the Pakistan- Saudi relationship after Islamabad’s renewedengagement with Iran. Pakistan had also refused to send troops to Yemen to join aSaudi war coalition. This is, therefore, a particularly good time to deepen ties, and theSaudis have responded positively. Hours ahead of Mr. Modi landing in Riyadh, SaudiArabia and the U.S. imposed joint sanctions on individuals linked to the Lashkar-e-

Taiba. Moreover, the joint statement issued by India and Saudi Arabia has an obliquereference to Pakistan as it calls on all states to dismantle terror infrastructure “wherethey happen to exist”. The India -UAE joint communiqué in August had made a similarcall.

The real question, however, is whether the joint statements will be translated intoactual policies. Despite some tensions, there is nothing substantial to suggest that thePakistani-Saudi alliance is getting any worse. Even though the joint statementdenounces all kinds of terrorism, the Saudis are accused of funding extremist groups inWest Asia, particularly in war-torn Syria. Besides, there are some fundamental weakspots in India-Saudi ties, ranging from concerns about Indian workers in the kingdomto its funding of Wahhabi groups elsewhere, including in India. Another obviousconcern is the drastic change under way in West Asia, and the aggressive role Riyadh is



playing in regional geopolitics. During the visit Mr. Modi may have focussed on thepositive factors of the relationship to improve ties, and rightly so. But India cannotafford to miss the big picture while finessing policies. There have to be mechanisms toaddress the flaws as well, without which the grand diplomatic overtures may not bearfruit. Also, India would be wary of appearing partisan at a time when the rivalry

between Iran and Saudi Arabia is at its peak. The best way forward is to continue themulti-directional West Asia policy with more vigour, but maintaining its equilibrium.

Tilting towards the SaudisIndia needs a balanced West Asia policy. By skewing it towards the Saudis in pursuit ofshort-term goals, New Delhi runs the risk of antagonising Tehran

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Saudi Arabia, arguably the leader of the SunniMuslim countries in West Asia, clear ly sets out the priorities of his government’s policyfor the region. The Riyadh trip came eight months after Mr. Modi went to the UnitedArab Emirates, another Gulf nation and a member of the Saudi camp.

Historically, India’s West Asia policy has been mul ti-directional. During the Cold War years, India maintained close economic cooperation with both Saudi Arabia and Iran,the rival poles in regional geopolitics. Even when New Delhi warmed up to Israel in the1990s as part of the country’s efforts to divers ify its diplomatic engagement in the post-Soviet world, it was careful not to jeopardise the traditional relations with Muslimcountries. The bi-directional approach has been expanded to a tri-directional foreignpolicy to accommodate the three key pillars of West Asia — Saudi Arabia, Iran andIsrael.

Ties with Iran, however, took a beating during the sanctions years when New Delhi cutits energy cooperation significantly despite its vitality and huge energy potential. It wasduring the same time that India deepened cooperation with the Saudis. Mr. Modi’s visitto Riyadh should be seen against this background. His government appears to befollowing the regional policy set by its immediate predecessor. This approach, while notentirely giving up the tri-directional framework, is tilted more towards the Saudi campand Israel. Mr. Modi is expected to travel to Israel this year, the first visit by an IndianPrime Minister to the Jewish nation. Many see the trip to Riyadh as part of New Delhi’sbalancing act between the Saudis and the Israelis. On the other side, there appears tobe a complete lack of interest on India’s part to reboot ties with Iran even afterinternational sanctions on the country were removed following the nuclear deal.

The Saudi significance

To be sure, there’s a consensus in India’s foreign policy establishment that maintainingvibrant ties with Saudi Arabia is imperative to its national interest. Today, Saudi Arabiais India’s largest supplier of crude oil. That India is dependent on imports t o meetaround 70 per cent of the country’s energy demand itself makes Riyadh a vital player inthe country’s quest for energy security. Besides, India is the largest recipient of foreignremittances from the kingdom. Of the 11 million Indians working in West Asia, nearly



three million are in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, stability in the region, and particularly inSaudi Arabia, is high on India’s core agenda. But bilateral relations have gone beyondthe economic realm in recent years, acquiring a strategic sense and pushing bothcountries to beef up their security partnership.

For decades, India was a passive player in West Asia — a beneficiary of goodrelationships with multiple actors. Despite the growing economic ties, political contactsbetween Saudi Arabia and India were at minimum till the Manmohan Singh governmenttook office in 2004. West Asia acquired great significance in Dr. Singh’s world view; heeven appointed a special envoy for the whole region. The January 2006 visit of the lateKing, Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, to Delhi set a new tone for bilateral ties. Dr. Singhreciprocated the visit in 2010 — the first Indian Prime Minister visiting Saudi Arabia innearly 30 years — and signed the Riyadh Declaration, which set the framework forenhanced cooperation in the security, defence and economic spheres. Since then, therehas been marked improvement in security cooperation and intelligence sharing betweenIndia and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh also extradited several terror suspects to India in aclear departure from its established policy towards New Delhi.

The broader framework for reactivating India’s Saudi ties was set in the post -9/11world where counter-terror cooperation became a new diplomatic norm between terror-affected countries. Dr. Singh found it an opportunity to deepen security ties with SunniMuslim countries, and Mr. Modi appears to be taking this policy a step forward. Themain focus of his trips to both the UAE and Saudi Arabia was counter-terrorism. BothAbu Dhabi and Riyadh are Pakistan’s historic al allies. The joint statements, issued inAugust with the UAE and this week with Riyadh, are unsurprisingly similar. And bothhave indirect references to Pakistan’s dual policy towards terrorism. It is clear that Mr.Modi is giving a Pakistan spin to the ‘Act West Asia’ policy of his predecessor. India’sobjective appears to be to build a “counter -terror narrative” in diplomatic engagements

with Pakistan’s close allies which could complicate the latter’s foreign policy. Indiawould also not prefer to sit on the margins at a time when China is raising its profile inWest Asia. Chinese President Xi Jinping recently visited Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

The relationship between Beijing and Tehran is particularly going strong.

Enhanced ties with India are important for Saudi Arabia as well. The kingdom is facingeconomic strain in the wake of persistently weak oil prices. The U.S. is no longer asdependent on the region for energy as it used to be, thanks to the shale boom. Demandfrom China is also receding in the wake of a slowdown. Besides, competition in the oilmarket is expected to tighten with a sanctions-free Iran entering the global economicmainstream without any bars. In this context, India is a vital market for Saudi Arabia.

There is believed to be friction between Islamabad and Riyadh over the former warmingup to Tehran and their growing energy cooperation. Pakistan also refused to join SaudiArabia’s war coalition that has been bombing Yemen for the past one year in the nameof fighting the Iran-backed Shia rebels.

The sore points



But the question is how far both sides will go. Will Saudi Arabia abandon Pakistan andsupport India’s positions in multinational forums? The Saudis may like to use theirgrowing relations with India to put pressure on Pakistan, but a structural overhaul ofRiyadh’s South Asia policy is not on the cards. Pakistan, after all, is the country with an“Islamic bomb”, a “historic ally” of the Saudis. So if India, while reactivating its West

Asia policy, looks only through the Pakistan prism, it might end up making strategicmistakes. Another sore point is the growing Saudi-Iran rivalry, which has alwaysinfluenced West Asian geopolitics. By skewing its West Asia policy towards the Saudis,even though it might help meet its short-term goals, New Delhi also runs the risk ofantagonising Iran at a time when the country is emerging a stronger player in West Asiapost the removal of sanctions.

Then there’s the ideological problem. While Saudi Arabia denounces all forms ofterrorism, Saudi money is funding Wahhabi Islamic groups around the world. Manyextremist outfits are inspired by the Wahhabi branch of Islam. Saudi Arabia’saggressive foreign policy in West Asia under King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud is doinggreat damage to regional stability, which is India’s most important goal in the region.

In Syria, the Saudi support for the rebels has played a key role in destabilising theregime, leading to the rise of the Islamic State. In Yemen, the war has unleashed chaosand a humanitarian catastrophe, creating conditions for radicalism to flourish.

So Saudi Arabia is not always a source of stability in West Asia, it is a disruptor too.India will have to factor these developments in its overall West Asia approach. The bestway to do it is to restore the balance in its West Asia policy.

Lessons from a massacreIt is difficult to equate delayed justice with ‘justice denied’ in all cases. There may beoccasions when even a delayed conviction can send out a message that there is no suchthing as permanent impunity. The verdict of a Special CBI Court in Lucknow sentencing47 police personnel to life imprisonment for participating in one of the most heinousmassacres perpetrated in the name of an ‘encounter’ with armed terrorists, is one suchinstance in which some sort of accountability has been established, and the law hascaught up with the perpetrators. On July 12, 1991, a bus carrying Sikh pilgrims wasintercepted by the police about 125 km from Pilibhit in Uttar Pradesh, and all the menamong them were taken away in a van. The police later claimed that the men wereterrorists and that 10 of them were killed in three different ‘encounters’ in the foreststhat night. A Central Bureau of Investigation probe ordered by the Supreme Court later

revealed that the victims were killed in fake encounters. The agency charge-sheeted 57personnel, but 10 of them died during the course of the trial. It is worth recalling thatmilitancy was at its peak in Punjab at the time. There were fears that it had spilled overfrom Punjab to the Terai region of Uttar Pradesh. The police in both States suspectedthat some Punjab militants were active in the Terai too, and Pilibhit, a district with asignificant Sikh population, was under watch. It was also a phase in which the statewas seen to be using questionable tactics to eliminate suspected terrorists.



A judicial commission appointed by the Kalyan Singh government had given a clean chitto the police, even contending that the officers involved in the Pilibhit operationdeserved ‘commendation’. But the CBI came to a different conclusion. However, theagency was faulted by human rights activists for leaving out superior officers, especiallythe Superintendent of Police at the time, R.D. Tripathi, from the charge sheet. Many felt

that a night-long operation involving personnel from several police stations could nothave taken place without the knowledge of the district police chief. The trial judge, too,has noted that senior officers posted in the district at the time could have been part ofthe conspiracy. It is possible to commend the agency for successfully prosecuting thoseinvolved, but it is the families of the victims that deserve credit for their perseverance.However, the long delay and the failure to bring higher officials to book will surely casta shadow on the quality of justice meted out in such cases. In troubled times,uniformed men tend to resort to extrajudicial killing not only to wreak vengeance onmilitants or extremists targeting their colleagues and civilians, but also to garnerrewards and promotions. It can only be hoped that a verdict fixing responsibility willhelp end the culture of impunity seemingly enjoyed by the security forces, and bring asense of closure to instances of such excesses.

Staying accommodative The Reserve Bank of India’s reiteration of an accommodative stance after it cut the reporate by 25 basis points on Tuesday is a clear and unequivocal message that themonetary authorities stand ready to spur economic growth. Indeed, GovernorRaghuram Rajan has gone a step further by explicitly stating that going forward,policymakers will be looking for greater elbow room, including in additional readings oflow headline inflation, indications of softening core inflation, and evidence oftransmission of its previous interest rate reductions. Explaining the rationale for hispolicy action, Dr. Rajan said the RBI’s aim is to help give a monetary fillip to private

investment, which is currently becalmed by low capacity utilisation. The centra l bank’sfocus on domestic growth comes not a moment too soon. International Monetary Fundchief Christine Lagarde on Tuesday warned that the global economy is losingmomentum, with the recovery being “too slow, too fragile”. Among the headwinds thatboth Ms. Lagarde and Dr. Rajan have cited is China’s current slowdown. For India, this

year’s monsoon will be a critical factor. If, as the RBI has assumed in its policyformulation, rainfall during the season is broadly normal after two consecutive years ofshortfall, it would provide a healthy supply shock: simultaneously bolstering ruraldemand and boosting the availability of farm produce. That would help temperinflationary trends. The RBI, for its part, has found comfort in a string of data points.

These include its Consumer Confidence Survey that shows a marginal improvement in

consumer sentiment and the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index reflecting acontinuing expansion. And survey outcomes — both for industrial and services outlookfor the first quarter of the new fiscal year — suggesting that business expectationsremain positive have fed into the central bank’s decision to retain its 7.6 per centforecast for growth in gross value added terms for 2016-17.

On the inflation front, the RBI has drawn reassurance from the fact that food inflationeased in the second half of the last financial year, notably as a result of a decline in



prices and not as a result of the base effect. The central bank expects retail inflation tocontinue to decelerate and remain around 5 per cent this year. And showing that it hasnot dropped its guard against incipient price pressures, the monetary authority flaggeduncertainties such as historic lows in reservoir levels, the recent upturn in prices ofcommodities, especially oil, and the impact of the implementation of the Seventh

Central Pay Commission’s recommendations, all meriting close watch. Dr. Rajan isconvinced that improved monetary transmission holds the key to unlocking credit. Tothat end, the move to a marginal cost of funds based lending rate regime has alreadyhelped pare borrowing costs by at least 25 to 50 basis points, according to initialestimates of the RBI. The coming months will tell if Dr. Rajan’s pointed efforts to cleanup banks’ balance sheets wil l also help augment funds availability in the real economy.

Of umbrage and exceptionCounselling caution is not easy in public life. Be too subtle, and you risk falling belowthe radar. Sharpen your observations to get the point home, and you risk upsettingsensitivities, genuine as well as contrived. Reserve Bank of India Governor RaghuramRajan’s remark seeking to put India’s economic performance in perspective has drawnpredictable criticism. Using a familiar Hindi metaphor, “ andhon mein kana raja ”, or “in the land of the blind, the one -eyed man is king”, he had warned against exultingabout India’s seven -odd per cent GDP growth amid a global slowdown. In the course ofan interview on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s spring meeting, he said our growth figures must not make us believe that all is on track, and went on tocount the green shoots of recovery India needs to nurture. It has long been Dr. Rajan’stheme song that economic management needs leadership to be on top of every possibleanxiety. In 2005, it led him to wade against the feel-good current of the heady pre-2008era, and warn a gathering of leading economists in Wyoming, U.S., that craftyinstruments such as credit default swaps were endangering the financial system. They

didn’t listen. And post -2008, Dr. Rajan instantly acquired an oracular aura. And in hiscurrent job as Governor of the central bank, he has continued to heed every collectiveanxiety and recommend that India redouble its efforts to grow faster.

That was per haps the background for the “one -eyed king” metaphor. But Dr. Rajan hashad to wheel back, and apologise for any hurt he may have caused the blind or visuallyimpaired. Clearly, in the post-Greenspan age, a central banker does not have thedefences available to the brainy professor to blink his way out of misconstrued, if notmisconstructed, sentences. In fact, no one within coughing distance of a political stagedoes. Ask Gloria Steinem, who worried that young American women were missing thefeminist logic of supporting Hillary Clinton in her quest for the Democratic nomination,

as the “boys” were with rival Bernie Sanders. Or ask Shashi Tharoor. He’s had toexplain himself hoarse to retrieve context for his comparison of Kanhaiya Kumar toBhagat Singh. In a media culture of too much information, often it is the juiciest andpotentially most controversial that spins the news and social media cycle. Words areeasily taken out of context and their repetition frays even reasonably thick skins, and inthe end we are all a collection of raw nerves. Public figures have the option of wagingtheir argument regardless, and pausing only for the politically correct, and humane,apology — as Dr. Rajan did. Or of heeding the advice that his predecessor as Chief



Economic Adviser, Kaushik Basu, got when he moved out of academia into a RaisinaHill office: “I should make sure not only that no sentence of mine conveyed someunwarranted message but also that no consecutive set of words within the sentenceconveyed a wrongful message since in reporting my comments the media, in theireagerness to make news, could drop words at the start and end of my sentences.”

Making a hollow in the Forest Rights ActOver 12,000 villages across Odisha conserve their community forests, says a 2013Odisha Jungle Manch study. In a visit last October to seven villages in Keonjhardistrict’s Gandhamardan range, Munda communities showed me their forest protectionrosters. Each roster listed four villagers for every weekday to roam the forests andprevent tree felling and timber smuggling.

I wasn’t there to study community conservation however, but to speak to villagers aboutforged gram sabha consent resolutions submitted in their names last January by theOdisha government and the State-owned Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC). Thesubmissions, to the Ministry of Environment, Forests & Climate Change (MoEFCC),were part of a “forest clearance” proposal to enable OMC to acquire and turn 1,400hectares of forest into an iron ore mine.

Resolutions and deceit

To the shock and anger of people in the seven villages — since they had held no suchgram sabhas — the copycat resolutions depicted them as saying they had no ties to theforest and that they “requested” the government to divert the sought area to OMC. Si ncediscovering the forgery, villagers have written to the MoEFCC and the Ministry of TribalAffairs (MoTA) twice, pointing out the fraud. They have got no response yet.

Gram sabhas mandated by the landmark Forest Rights Act, 2006 (FRA), are the onlyofficially-recognised space for Adivasi and forest-dwelling communities to participate inState decision-making around the enclosure and destruction of forests for mining. This,when such communities not just depend on but proactively protect such forests.Forging gram sabha resolutions clears the path to lucrative mining. For example, OMCvalued the ore it would sell from this proposed mine at Rs.79,000 crore. Such fictionsmanufacture on file the legal requirement of villagers’ participation and consent. Asenior forester, serving in another Adivasi-populated, mineral-rich State, wrote to meafter reading my account (http://bit.ly/22J6fHZ) of the forgery, saying, “I have seenthis many times, in many files.”

Contrast the official actions and inaction on Gandhamardan with another example fromOdisha: Niyamgiri. Following a 2013 Supreme Court order, in 12 gram sabhas underthe FRA, villagers including Dongria Kondhs articulated ecological, spiritual and foodsecurity grounds to not mine Niyamgiri for bauxite. Over two years on, the Odishagovernment has moved the court to annul the gram sabha resolutions. Among otherthings, its petition argues, there is “grave doubt” whether what villagers said “weregenuine statements setting out what was really felt.” Never mind that the gram sabhas,



in line with court directives, were kept free of State government and company influence,had a magistrate present, and were videographed.

This State and mining company-created universe — where what Adivasis say must bestamped out, while fictions in their name routinely spawn far-reaching decisions to

their detriment — is hardly unique to Gandhamardan and Niyamgiri. Across mineral-rich, forested Adivasi landscapes, governments are hollowing out the FRA to favourminers. Here are just three instances.

In Jharkhand’s Chatra district, the Oraon village of Jala has had to move the HighCourt to challenge the denial of their community forest rights (CFR) claim, and forgedgram sabha consent submitted towards clearance for a coal mine. In Chhattisgarh, theofficial junking of the law is more candid. In Kanker district’s Rowghat area, theadministration, in response to an RTI request, has stated that there is “a bar” onrecognising FRA claims or granting such titles in 12 Adivasi villages, since a rail line fora proposed iron ore mine is planned in their area!

Further north, in Surguja district is Hasdeo Arand, among India’s best forests. Monthsago, Gond villagers wistfully narrated how, in order to mine the area for coal, AdaniMining staff were uprooting soaring sal trees, and fencing off stretches of forest villagershad traditionally used. As we spoke, Adani staff drove up in two sport utility vehicles,insisting on being present through our conversation. This January, local officialscanc elled the CFR title awarded in 2013 to the area’s Ghatbarra village. The solepurpose: to enable Adani to mine.

Cutting out the community

MoTA, the nodal ministry for FRA and the spokesperson for Adivasi interests, is yet toeffectively address the hollowi ng out of this crucial law. The MoEFCC’s conduct alsocauses concern. Entrusted with stewarding our forests, it has instead concentratedgreat energy on how to hasten their felling (through the forest clearances it awards). Indoing this, it has, among other things, mounted a prolonged effort to see if and howmeaningful community participation can be eliminated from the clearance process.

But what if our governments thought less like mining companies and approached FRAnot as a “roadblock” but as a means t o achieve a more just, democratic and ecologicallyinformed conversation around mining? This would mean admitting that the knowledgebase of local communities, that interact most intimately with the forests, is of value indecision-making. As the 2013 SC o rder observed: “…we have realised that forests have

the best chance to survive if communities participate in their conservation andregeneration.”

Further, if nurtured seriously as an institution of local governance, FRA-mandatedgram sabhas can be a vital mechanism to outline the full costs and gains of mining,and more crucially, how these get distributed. This could help ameliorate some of the“resource curse” impacts and deep -rooted corruption that plague India’s mining



industry, as outlined in grim det ail by the Justice Shah Commission’s reports on illegalmining.

In years of travelling through mineral-rich areas, I cannot recall an example of anAdivasi community telling me they are better off because of the way the company took

over their forest and land for mining. But there have been countless accounts ofvillagers being beaten up, swindled, having bulldozers pulverise their homes, sacredsites, food and livelihood sources, being incarcerated, and even killed in police firings.

These are fates that national elites would be loathe to accept for ourselves in the nameof “development”. But we are happy to prescribe them for Adivasi citizens. As MasuriBehra, a Gandhamardan resident on seeing her name in the village’s forged resolutionasked aloud, “Why do they kick us in the stomach like this?”

The language of violence The recent prevalence of debates on non-issues such as whether citizens must chantthe slogan ‘Bharat Mata ki Jai’ is troubling in itself. When influential public figuresinject the language of violence and intimidation into this discourse, they are butattempting to ignite a spark in an already overheated atmosphere. Yoga guru andbusinessman Baba Ramdev’s remark that but for his respect for the law of the land andthe Constitution, lakhs of people would be beheaded for their refusal to chant theslogan can be construed as sheer incitement to violence. That this was a response toAll-India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen leader Asaduddin Owaisi, who had said hewould not utter the words in ques tion “even if a knife were held to my throat”, is hardlya defence. That Ramdev’s remarks were made at a public function organised by the‘Sadbhavana Sammelan’ in Rohtak, Haryana, where the participants included HimachalPradesh Governor Acharya Dev Vrat, illustrates the brazenness of such bigotry. In tenorand language they contain the ingredients of typical hate speech: appeal to sectarianfeelings, incitement to violence and intent to cause discord. Whether it would fall underthe ambit of a specific provision in the Indian Penal Code (Section 295A, for instance) isa separate issue, but one well worth examining. But what is of equal import is thegrowing feeling that such virulence in speech is met with an accepting silence, or worse,with quiet approbation, by those in political power. BJP president Amit Shah may beright in pointing out that Ramdev is not a member of his party. But in wonderingwhether the right of free speech does not apply to the yoga guru, he glosses over animportant distinction between bona fideforms of free expression and those that couldincite violence.

Summarily dismissing the issue, Union Minister M. Venkaiah Naidu chose to say thatwhat really mattered was government policy and not individual opinion. But we live inan environment in which even those who hold office sometimes lack any sense ofrestraint. For instance, Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis was reported assaying that those who do not proclaim ‘Bharat Mata ki Jai’ have no right to live in thecountry. He later claimed that he was misquoted, but maintained that those whorefused to chant the slogan had mala fide intentions. Mr. Naidu did distance hisgovernment from what both Ramdev and Mr. Fadnavis said, but clearly, not enough is



being done to rein in the motormouths and the extremist fringe in his larger parivar .Ironically, Section 295A, which resembles a hate speech provision, is routinely invokedfor all the wrong reasons, and has become a tool to harass people such as authors andartists to appease some religious group or the other. If this frequently misused provisionhas any justification, its use should be restricted to deliberate and malicious acts that

can foment violence and discord. It would be well if the likes of Ramdev are made tounderstand this.

The Panama paper trailAs the ramifications of the leak of about 11 million secret documents from the Panama-based law firm, Mossack Fonseca, play themselves out, a clear articulation of what the“Panama Papers” hold for the state of global finance t oday came from U.S. PresidentBarack Obama. Following the joint investigation by the International Consortium ofInvestigative Journalists and the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung into theleaked papers, Mr. Obama described global tax avoidance as a huge problem. Today, itis perfectly legal in many countries to park money in various kinds of shadowycompanies in tax havens. This holds true in India as well, where a lack of claritypersists about the legality of buying offshore companies, a service that is expresslyprovided by Mossack Fonseca. The lack of clarity exists despite the Reserve Bank ofIndia’s evolving guidelines on offshore remittances and investments since 2004. Whilethe guidelines, such as those of the Liberalised Remittance Scheme, are specific toremittances utilised by residents to service various overseas requirements such asmedical treatment and education, they have been modified over time to permit thesetting up of 100 per cent subsidiaries and joint ventures within the limit of $250,000 a

year. One of the few stipulations is that money cannot be sent to countries identified as“non -cooperative” by the global Financial Action Task Force. (The FATF identifiedPanama as having taken significant steps to comply with standards related to anti-

money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism, in February 2016.) TheRBI guidelines have largely been a reactive measure to address flows to tax havens. Theinvestigation into the Panama Papers and the scrutiny of the accounts of Indiansnamed in them should pave the way for yet another tightening of the norms.

The global investigation has revealed large-scale possible tax avoidance and parking ofincome in shell companies, possibly earned through graft and cronyism by powerfulpolitical and governmental actors. The fallout has already begun, with the resignation ofone Prime Minister (of Iceland), and a shadow of doubt on the political leadership incountries such as Russia and China. This could be the tip of the iceberg; the leaksrelate to just one offshore law firm, even if it is the fourth largest in the world. A global

tax avoidance problem requires a coordinated response, and the papers point to theurgent need for much more transparency in the movement of global finance capital. TheNDA government has passed the Undisclosed Foreign Income and Assets (Imposition of

Tax) Act, 2015 and provided a one-time compliance window to declare foreign assetsand income. So far, these steps have yielded little by way of repatriation of transferredassets. The problem of black money stashed overseas has to be dealt with both at themultilateral level, through tightened capital flow norms, and domestically, through azero tolerance approach to illegal transfers.



The problem of secretive tax havensIn popular Indian imagination, a tax haven is generally associated with Switzerland andits numbered bank accounts. But tax havens are numerous, have grown in importance,and are the routes through which half of international trade now takes place. Apart

from high-net-worth individuals, tax havens are liberally used by multinationals andtheir army of accountants and lawyers for tax planning and transfer pricing. They arealso wonderful places for money launderers.

Tax havens come in all shapes and sizes. Each has its own comparative advantage,whether in terms of cost or time taken to set up structures, discretion used, or links toparticular countries. Nevertheless, they have some common characteristics such asease of setting up companies/trusts/foundations, minimal disclosure requirements, thepossibility to hide beneficial ownership, and low or no effective taxation on income orwealth.

Threats posed by tax havens

Panama fits the bill perfectly. In Panama, there are firms that can help set up acompany within 48 hours and provide nominee directors/shareholders. Manyinternational banks operate from Panama, and banking confidentiality is guaranteed.Panama follows a strict territorial system of taxation. Consequently, all foreign incomesof non-residents are not taxable. Further, Panama has no official central bank and noexchange control.

The Panama papers are raising a storm across the world. However, shorn of all therazzmatazz, the terabytes of data released by the International Consortium ofInvestigative Journalists do not tell us anything new about the modus operandi adoptedby the high and mighty to hide their assets.

The one definitive conclusion that one can draw from the Panama papers is that thosein charge of designing the rules in the fight against such tax havens also tookadvantage of the same for diverse motives, whether for tax avoidance/evasion, maskingconflict of interest, or for corrupt practices and money laundering.

It is not as if the threats posed by tax havens are not known to regulatory authorities. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development never tires of proclaimingthat due to its revised standard for exchange of information, the days of secrecy areover. Indian politicians and administrators say the same. As the current leaks show,

the utility of such agreements in discouraging tax havens from offering their services, orfor foreign clients from using their services, is rather limited.

OECD’s initial project on harmful tax practices, including the use of sanctions, cameunstuck due to American opposition. While there has been improvement in themonitoring mechanism over time with a peer review process, jurisdictions carry on withbusiness as usual even after declaring their intention to comply with OECD standards.OECD’s initial list of non -cooperative jurisdictions has been empty since 2009. Of



course, following the U.S. Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act, OECD has come upwith an automatic exchange of information and apparently only four jurisdictions havenot committed to its standards — Bahrain, Nauru, Panama and Vanuatu. But does thatmean that there are no worries about other tax havens such as the Channel Islands,the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands? As the Panama papers show, the

truth is far rem oved. ‘Don’t ask, don’t tell’ is the policy followed by many tax havens.

While examining the history of tax havens, Gabriel Zucman in his book The HiddenWealth of Nations: The Scourge of Tax Havens has shown that action against themworks only if there are credible sanctions, which he proposes in the form of trade tariffs.Considering the storm created by the Panama papers throughout the world, hisproposals, including that of a global finance register of all financial securities incirculation, are worth considering at the international level.

Inviolability of corporate structure

The Panama papers prove the ease with which companies can be formed in jurisdictionswhich make a mockery of the concept of separate corporate existence. For example, thepapers show how banks registered nearly 15,600 shell companies with only one lawfirm, and how difficult it is for the tax administration to get meaningful information. Inthe circumstances, one can question the concept of almost total inviolability of thecorpora te structure as propounded by the Supreme Court in the Vodafone case: “Whenit comes to taxation of a Holding Structure, at the threshold, the burden is on theRevenue to allege and establish abuse, in the sense of tax avoidance in the creationand/or use of such structure(s).” The Supreme Court -monitored Special Investigation

Team now oversees the investigation of all the Indian cases emanating out of thevarious leaks. In two years, it does not seem that the SIT has made any significantheadway in investigations of all the cases involving tax havens.

There are some apologists who believe that tax havens serve some important functions.Mauritius is often mentioned in this connection as being one of the largest foreigninvestors for India. Any action against the tiny nation is stonewalled. The Panamapapers show that tax havens are used overwhelmingly for secrecy and dissimulation,putting distance between assets and owners thereof. Corporate structures help suchdissimulation. Therefore, countries and jurisdictions that help in such efforts of taxplanners, avoiders and evaders need to be put on alert. In the Indian scene, much ofthe alleged foreign investment apparently comes from Mauritius through GlobalBusiness Companies-1 that Mauritus allows non-residents to set up. If we are seriousabout tackling tax evasion and avoidance, there needs to be a rethink about the way

these companies are allowed to be operated. There are many Mossack Fonsecas thatspecialise in offering their services for setting up such structures, including supply ofdirectors and shareholders for routing investments through Mauritus (and others) andfor availing of its treaty benefits. Panama is a tax haven, but Mauritius is a tax havenwith which we have a comprehensive double tax treaty. That complicates the mattereven more by allowing rampant ‘treaty shopping’, double non -taxation, and erosion ofIndia’s tax base. It is therefore time to bury the Azadi Bachao theory of treaty shoppingbeing good for developing countries. Nobody should believe in that theory.



Since 2011, we have a provision in the Income Tax Act in Section 94A to deal with jurisdictions that do not effectively exchange information. So far, only Cyprus has beennotified. There are reports that perhaps Panama will also be put on that list. Butconsidering that in almost all collusive international deals at least one tax haven isinvolved, there needs to be a review of all tax havens and the provision used effectively.

Otherwise, the promise of bringing back black money stashed abroad will remain achimera. We are smug about the relative lack of political names from India beingdisclosed in the Panama papers. But had the leak occurred elsewhere, things mighthave been different. We should not wait for another leak to break out, but need to takeproactive actions both internationally and domestically.

The tip of the tip of the icebergOut of more than 11 million leaked documents of Mossack Fonseca, a legal firmoperating out of Panama, a tax haven, only 36,000 pertain to Indians — 0.33 per cent ofthe total. This insignificant number contains the names of 500 Indian entities, some ofwhom have stated that their names have been misused while some others have deniedany wrongdoing. Some officials have also argued that the papers need to be studied todistinguish between the legitimate and the illegitimate. This has given a breather to theentities named in the leaked papers. The general impression is that anyone using thetax havens for their financial affairs has something to hide.

The question of legitimacy arises since after 2003 when the Liberalised RemittanceScheme (LRS) was introduced, sending funds abroad for a variety of reasons is notillegal. The amount allowed has varied and at present the limit is $2,50,000. Thus, onecould have money in a bank, have a subsidiary, buy shares in foreign companies, etc.

The issue remains whether it was legitimately done and if transactions other than thelegally allowed ones took place via these instrumentalities. While the names and the

year of activity are revealed by the documents, the annual transactions or movements offunds are not known. Thus, even if what has come out in the open was legitimate, whatelse was done and has not yet been revealed requires investigation.

Liberalisation of fund flows

The Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA), that was in force till 1998, was stringentand did not allow Indians to take money out of the country or to keep funds outside thecountry without permission. But after the implementation of new economic policies in1991, FERA was diluted and easier flow of funds from and to India allowed. The ForeignExchange Management Act (FEMA) was enacted in 1999 and the Prevention of Money

Laundering Act (PMLA) in 2005. What was a criminal act under FERA has now becomea civil offence.

Trade account convertibility was introduced after 1991 and, subsequently, currentaccount convertibility; but not capital account convertibility. Thus, after 1991, a limitedamount of proceeds from international transactions could be kept outside. Committeesheaded by S.S. Tarapore twice recommended capital account convertibility in 1997 and2007. However, due to the Southeast Asian contagion in 1997 and the global financial



crisis starting 2007, this was not implemented. So, restrictions on Indians takingcapital out of the country have remained.

People want to hold funds abroad for many reasons. They may have earned them fromillegal sources or want to hide their trail of ownership for business reasons or if they

earn the money abroad or purely as a hedge against risk and/or in expectation ofhigher returns. The first two involve some illegality. The third may also involve someillegality but the last two may be legitimate activities. However, even in a legitimateactivity, some rules may be flouted so that illegality occurs and prosecution is called for.For example, taking out money is not illegal but if more has been taken out via under-invoicing of exports and deposited in one’s account or if the money taken outlegitimately was used to set up a company or one has not declared the income for taxpurposes from the funds taken out, then prosecution becomes legitimate.

A large number of the well-off Indians have used the tax havens to shift funds out ofIndia. The data from the Panama Papers and earlier from LGT Bank of Liechtensteinand HSBC Bank showed that not only big businessmen but also small ones andprofessionals have indulged in this activity. Politicians and bureaucrats also movedsome of their ill-gotten gains abroad. According to our study, the opportunity cost ofsuch funds for the Indian economy amounts to around $2 trillion between 1948 and2012. A part of these funds have been round-tripped back to India, especially after1991. While this may be considered beneficial, the outflow has accelerated during thisperiod, so the country continues to lose capital. The reason is that as the flow of fundshas been liberalised, it has become easier to mask the illegitimate flows. The fact is thatwhile 6 per cent of the gross domestic product is leaking out of the country via flight ofcapital, only 2-3 per cent comes into the country as foreign investment (includinground-tripping). Not only is India a net loser, liberalised flows have changed the verynotion of what is legitimate and what is not, complicating prosecution and confusing

the public. Loopholes deliberately created, such as the Mauritius route andParticipatory Notes [instruments issued by registered foreign institutional investors tooverseas investors who wish to invest in the Indian stock markets without registeringthemselves with the market regulator] which encourage inflow of capital also encouragemore flight of capital. The inflow of such funds also spawns illegality in the countrysuch as drug trafficking. It leads to speculation in the stock markets and makes themunstable. The benefits of liberalisation do not outweigh the loss to society.

Prosecution easier said than done

Given the scale of flight of capital from India, what has been revealed now is the tip of

the tip of the iceberg. Panama is only one of the 90 tax havens. Thus, it is likely that theentire financial operations of those whose names have been exposed are yet to berevealed. Further, out of the lakhs of Indians who could be holding funds abroad, datafor not even 1 per cent of them have been leaked in all the cases of stolen data ordeclarations under the amnesty announced last year.

The stolen data, even though sketchy, leave the reader bewildered. The salient featurethat emerges is that funds are routed abroad via tax havens and use the process of



‘layering’ to hide the trail. Leaked papers further reveal that Mossack Fonseca wasconnected to various tax havens (such as British Virgin Islands and the Bahamas) andhelped its clients hide their identity. If one works out the proportions, the 11 milliondocuments possibly refer to 1,50,000 entities globally. Many of these entities, thoughnot listed as Indian, could have Indian beneficial owners.

So prosecution is not going to be easy unless the government is proactive and finds outthe details of the annual transactions of the 500 entities named (even if the accountsare closed now) and also finds out who else has not been exposed because of ‘layering’.

The Panama government, and through it Mossack Fonseca, have to be forced to allowaccess to more data. The government has to investigate those who have been travellingto Panama or meeting Mossack Fonseca agents in India. That is how Bradley Birkenfeldwas caught by U.S. authorities which then led to the prosecution of UBS Bank in 2007.

Even if technically one cannot prove that money was taken out or kept abroad illegally,what is the implication of taking money out to a tax haven and not keeping it in India?Inequity rises when the well-off escape taxation and that leads to poor infrastructureand higher indirect taxes. Indian tax rates are now moderate and hardly a cause forpeople to take capital out. This rising injustice and inequity due to flight of capital hasnot spurred action because almost all political parties and/or people close to them areinvolved in this activity. What has happened in Iceland [where the Prime Ministerstepped down after his family was named in the Panama Papers], is unlikely to happenin India.

The problem is in India, and not abroad.

From institution to mechanismInstead of encouraging critical thinking, the university is being forced to become asystem for training people to fit the world they know and receive

The time has come to make some provisional sense of the tumultuous events that haveconvulsed the subcontinent over the last two months. There is an intensity to thedebate that is unprecedented in the public life of the Republic. The image of the publicuniversity went south, subjected to the extraordinary scrutiny of the Virtuous TaxPayer,as if desperately seeking a small gnat to swat when the rampaging elephant of thecriminal bank-loan defaulter was also in the room. We are living through a time whenuniversities (particularly departments of social science and humanities) are being seenas the incubators of hatred for the Indian nation, and campus politics in particular has

been described as a “disease” to be cured at all costs. What has provoked such violentand righteous rage in the breasts of so many Indians, among the marginalised andprivileged alike?

Today, as the debate over nationalism, its critics and its devotees, has moved beyondthe Marxist/Ambedkarite redoubts of Jawaharlal Nehru University/Hyderabad CentralUniversity respectively, and made a generalised target of certain political and culturalminorities, we also need to ask what the connections are between what is happening in



and to universities and the vociferous demands for worshipful allegiance to the neo-nation.

It will not do to merely point to or deride the obvious contradictions and inconsistenciesin the irrational cacophonies by which we are surrounded. Instead, we need urgently to

make sense of and expose the very rationality of these strident, irrational voices.

Yardstick of representations

We can begin by separating the concern about our public universities from thegeneralised moral panic that has now gripped all sections of the Indian citizenry. We allknow that public universities both in India and elsewhere have nurtured politicaldebates and struggles, from civil rights and anti-war movements to struggles forseparate States (not so long ago, the All Assam Students’ Union morphed into the AsomGana Sangram Parishad). Why has the fact that campus politics has for so longproduced very important politicians on the Left, Centre as well as Right been ignored sosystematically? What accounts for this widespread moral outrage, expressed not just bythe predictable “fringe elements” or the Hindu Right, but by such respected corporateleaders and academic entrepreneurs such as Mohandas Pai?

What is new about the Indian campus today is not only its enormous growth from beinga preserve of the elite in the decades following Independence to a reservoir of newtalents and aspirations, accounting for a full quarter of the college-age population.Campuses such as JNU, which had long ago devised and secured an admission policywhich went well beyond state- mandated reservations to include “deprivation points”(which incidentally are occasionally reviewed), have become among the most inclusiveand representative institutions of all. Which other institution includes so visibly notonly women and minorities but also all sections of the caste and class spectrum?

Certainly not even Parliament stands up to the yardstick of representativeness — ofgender, caste, class, ethnicity, and sexualities.

The vituperations against the public university then appear to be much more pointed:they are reserved for the perceived ingratitude of those who are, to adapt the Kannadawriter Arvind Malagatti’s searing term, “Government Brahmins”. The GovernmentBrahmins are those who have fed off the largesse of the state only to bite the hand thatfeeds. The perceived illegitimacy of “politics on the campus” is aimed not agains t thevarious shades of the Left, which, till recently, stood dangerously isolated andendangered in the surge towards the dominance of market forces, but against at leasttwo strands of politics which have, at least in a university like JNU, been uniquely and

visibly allied. These are the Ambedkarite forces and the feminists. Not only has thepublic university, for the first time in post-Independence history, enabled theparticipation of the widest range of its citizens in higher education, it has given themthe resources to think their social worlds anew, in an institutional space that permitsand encourages new structures and relationships. Sometimes, it means challenging thestructures and relationships which students are accustomed to or have inherited. Andthese political formations, like most of the Left forces with which they have allied, haveactively and productively critiqued the Indian state when necessary.



Claiming moral authority

This brings me to the second, and larger, frame within which we must place the newanxiety about politics on the campus. The eddying effect in the public life of India of thehatred for student politics would have been impossible without being linked to what

was clearly revealed in the speech of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh general secretaryBhaiyyaji Joshi in Nagaur. The high-pitched, and seemingly irrational, darkly affectivenature of the protests on the question of nationalism is explained by the way in whichpower has been organised in the Indian subcontinent for some time now, and at leastsince colonial times.

Why, for instance, is there such flagrant disdain and contempt for the rule of law? Is itreally the new face of power, or one that is being given new expression and shape? If thelawyers/teachers/students/citizens of the country have, for the last 20 months, beenemphasising the necessity of respecting the legal authority of the state, the shrill,strident voices of unreason precisely lay claim to the moral authority of the nation. It isthis sphere that is increasingly being envisaged as no longer sharing its power with, butexceeding and indeed dominating, the legal authority of the state. This refurbishedmoral authority of the nation increasingly entitles the dark forces of unreason to “deal”with those who are today clearly struggling to escape the ascribed structures of family,clan, and caste to build, however partially and incompletely, a new social world.

The moral panic that has gripped large sections of the Indian public is thus related tothe fears about the democratising opportunities offered by campuses today. In thisexpression of outrage, the newly moralising Right has left no stone unturned, evendisplaying the full flowering of a pornographic imagination, by producing a new “draininspector’s report”, an examination of the detritus of the campuses. It aims to replacecritical thinking with worship, forms of hard-won equality with structures of deference,

and forms of new community-building with a return to the ideal of the patriarchal“family”. (T he proposal of the Indian Council of Historical Research to institutefellowships that will foster a Guru-Shishya parampara which will tie a shishya to arelationship of obedience and honour, rather than thinking and debating, is only thesign of things to come.)

Meanwhile, in keeping with forces that have long been unfolding, since the days of theUnited Progressive Alliance regimes Mark I and II, the university is being pushed awayfrom being a full-blooded and lively institution, which encourages critical thinking, ifnecessary, of the state, and dreaming of new worlds, to being a mechanism for trainingpeople to fit the world they know and receive. That is why the truly representative

“nations” which have been constitutionally created and sustained — namelyuniversities such as Allahabad, HCU, Film and Television Institute of India, JNU — must be thoroughly undermined and reconstructed for the unreflective neo-nation totriumph.

Promoting equity with variable fees



The decision of the Human Resource Development Ministry to raise the annualundergraduate student fees at the Indian Institutes of Technology to Rs. 2 lakh marksanother major initiative by these leading education institutions to realise their realcosts. Continuing with the policy of affirmative action, students from the ScheduledCastes and Scheduled Tribes, candidates with disability and those from families with a

defined low income will get fee exemption. An upward revision of the annual fees wasmade twice by the IITs during the UPA government, taking it from Rs.25,000 toRs.90,000, based on expert committee recommendations. Several concessions forcandidates from the weaker sections were offered even then. It is important that fees forhigher education are structured in such a way that the opportunity for the brighteststudents to enrol in the best institutions is not linked to their socio-economicbackgrounds. There is also merit in the argument that education is a basic right thataccess to this must be widened by every possible means; enlightened policy pursuesthis ideal in a variety of ways. The fee revision scheme to be introduced broadly meetsthese criteria, and is consistent with the social deprivations that SC and ST studentshave faced, although the deficit they suffer due to a neglected school system remainsunaddressed by overall education policy. It is also important to ensure that the liberaleducation loan linkage for IIT students that the Devang Khakhar committeerecommended, with no collateral requirements, is in place.

Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, who envisaged the IIT system as the technologicalmanpower base for a nascent nation, said in his convocation address to graduatingstudents of the Institute in Kharagpur in 1956 that it would be “fantastically stupid” totrain people for certain ends and not utilise them. In the decades since, droves of IITgraduates have left for good research and employment prospects abroad, raising thequestion whether India derived adequate social returns for the beneficial and relativelylow-cost education that these institutions offered them. For some time now, though, anopen economy with an avowed policy of encouraging entrepreneurial initiative has

offered technologists greater freedom within the country, although in several areas ofresearch, such as computer science and materials, the base remains low, andencourages graduates to migrate. The imperative should therefore be to attract andretain talent, while protecting academic freedom and the principle of equity. This can bedone through a funding system that does not close the door on a meritorious studentwho finds the fees unaffordable. An income-linked loan scheme open to everyone, tiedto the ability of the graduate to repay (rather than the status of a student’s parents)would be an equitable option. The IITs should still offer generous assistantships flowingfrom social and charitable endowments. That would serve as a model for technicaleducation and research.

Lessons from the Chinese veto The Centre’s protests over China’s move to block India’s attempt at the United Nationsto ban Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Masood Azhar is understandable. After all, it wasAzhar along with Lashkar-e-Taiba chief Hafiz Saeed that provided the leadership formost of the terror attacks launched from Pakistan on India. Even if China awaitsevidence of Azhar’s role in the Pathankot attacks, it cannot be unaware of his longassociation with terrorist activity, including the 2001 Parliament assault. Also, it is





tend to include, to name but a few typical cases, rent control quarrels betweenlandlords and tenants, factual squabbles over tax assessments, internal managerialrows concerning societies and trusts, and what not! As a result of entertaining theseeveryday appeals, which have little bearing on the larger public interest, the court’sfocus has wavered from what many believe is its core task: deliberating on, and settling,

questions of pure constitutional significance.

Easing the court’s burden

An oft-repeated suggestion aimed at correcting this perceived imbalance in the apexcourt’s role is the establishment of a National Court of Appeal (NCA) that would act asan intermediate forum between the Supreme Court and the various high courts ofIndia. Although there is little scope under our country’s constitutional structure for thecreation of such a court, the idea has once again come into vogue.

Recently, on a public interest litigation initiated by a Chennai-based lawyer, V.Vasanthakumar, demanding the establishment of such an NCA, the Supreme Court notonly ordered notice to the Union of India but also proposed to refer questions of lawconcerning the establishment of such a court to a constitution bench of five judges.According to its proponents, the NCA, which would be headquartered in New Delhi, andwhich would have different regional benches, would relieve the Supreme Court of theweight of hearing regular civil and criminal appeals, allowing the court to concentrateon determining only fundamental questions of constitutional importance. Additionally,it has been argued that the NCA’s regional benches would allow greater access tolitigants from remote parts of the country, for whom the distance to New Delhi acts as agrave barrier to justice. Although intuitively these arguments present a cogentstructural solution, in reality they are unable to see the wood for the trees. The issuesbesetting the Supreme Court, and indeed the Indian judiciary as a collective whole, are

far too deep-rooted for the NCA to represent the kind of panacea that it has been madeout to be. Quite contrary to what has been suggested, to restore the Supreme Court’sgrandeur, the focus ought to be not on altering the core structure of the judiciary, butin aiming to make changes that are more pragmatic, that place an emphasis on thestrengthening of the base of India’s judicial edifice.

The decline of constitution benches

It is undeniable tha t the Supreme Court’s role as the Constitution’s sheet anchor hasbeen weakened in recent times. This dilution, at least partly, owes to the court’sinability to devote itself substantially to the determination of important public

questions. As Nick Robins on’s studies have demonstrated, the number of cases decidedby constitution benches — benches comprising five or more judges — has steadilydeclined right from the Supreme Court’s inception. Between 1950 and 1954, almost 15per cent of the total cases decided by the Supreme Court were decisions of constitutionbenches. By the time the 1970s came around, this figure had dipped below one percent. Between 2005 and 2009, benches comprising five judges or more decided only aworryingly paltry 0.12 per cent of t he court’s total decisions. This has meant that inspite of the specific precepts of Article 145(3) of the Constitution — which mandates



that a minimum of five judges sit for the purpose of deciding any case involving asubstantial question of constitutional law — division benches of two judges haveincreasingly decided important disputes requiring a nuanced interpretation of theConstitution.

For example, in December 2013, it was a bench of two judges, in Suresh KumarKoushal v. Naz Foundation , which reve rsed the Delhi High Court’s momentous judgment declaring Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code, insofar as it criminalisedhomosexuality, as unconstitutional. Similarly, when last year in S hreya Singhal v.Union of India the Supreme Court struck down the pernicious Section 66A of theInformation Technology Act, in the process paving the way for a refined thinking on theright to free speech, it was once again a bench of two judges that rendered the verdict.

What we have, therefore, is a quite unusual scheme of constitutionalism where anygiven pair of two individuals is vested with the enormous power of ruling conclusivelyon significant matters of public importance. This phenomenon — still relatively recent

— of rulings by two-judge benches in noteworthy ca ses has coincided with the court’smounting docket. What’s clearly evident is that this manner of functioning is far fromwhat the Constitution’s framers envisaged of the Supreme Court.

The apex court’s original mandate

Broadly, the Constitution prescribes to the Supreme Court two types of jurisdiction: anoriginal jurisdiction — i.e. the power to entertain cases at the first instance — wherefundamental rights have been violated, or where a State is involved in a dispute withanother State or with the Centre; and an appellate jurisdiction, where a case involving asubstantial question of law requires adjudication, on appeal. The court was thereforealways seen not merely as an arbiter of constitutional disputes, but also as a plenary

body that would settle the law of the land. However, by all accounts, the ConstituentAssembly believed the court would exercise great discretion in choosing its own scope ofwork. The court was not seen as a forum to argue over ordinary disputes betweenlitigants that had no larger public bearing. It was believed the lower judiciary and thevarious high courts would be sufficiently equipped to dispense justice in these kinds ofcases.

That the Supreme Court has today used the pliability of its power to grant special leaveto often interfere in mundane disputes is therefore not a product of any structuralproblem, but rather of a deliberate decision by the court’s judges. Viewed thus, it isdifficult to understand how the creation of an NCA would somehow ease the burden on

the Supreme Court, allowing it to eschew its authority to grant special leave; this powerwas, after all, always meant to be used only in exceptional cases, where a particularinterpretation of a law required definite resolution.

A bottom-up approach needed

What the NCA is meant to do, therefore, can quite easily be achieved by strengtheningthe lower judiciary, which generally constitutes the courts of first instance.



Correspondingly, as was always intended, the high courts can be viewed as the regular — and, in most cases, final — appellate court. No doubt, to achieve this, it is necessarythat there is greater rigour involved in choosing our judges. If socially conscious andmeritorious women and men, who subscribe to the best constitutional values, areelevated as judges to our subordinate judiciary and the high courts, the idea of viewing

the Supreme Court as a routine court of appeal can be renounced altogether. Thiswould allow the Supreme Court to be more discerning in its use of discretion, thussubstantially reducing its burden of acting as a corrector of simple errors. Moreover, atthe same time, at least two constitution benches can be designated to hear casesMonday through Friday, thereby solving problems concerning the inability of theSupreme Court to devote itself to its most important duty.

Were we to tailor our solutions thus, through a bottom-up approach, the purporteddifficulty of access to the Supreme Court also begins to present itself as a red herring.

That the real issues of accessing justice relate not to the Supreme Court but the lower judiciary becomes even more apparent through a study of the latest figures released bythe National Judicial Data Grid (NJDG). The data show us that there is only one judgefor every 73,000 people in India, a figure that is seven times worse than the UnitedStates. And even more staggeringly, at the present rate of functioning, according to theNJDG, civil cases will never get fully disposed of, and it will likely take more than 30

years to clear all the crimin al cases presently on the file of India’s lower courts.

To think about making changes even to the basic system of dispensing justice isn’tnecessarily a bad thing. But what’s clear from the NJDG data is that our judiciary isn’tbroken because of any deficiencies in structure, but rather because of the feebleinfrastructure that we have installed to support our justice delivery system. If we worktowards establishing a more robust subordinate judiciary, it would not only negate anyrequirement on the part of most litigants to approach the Supreme Court, but it would

also free the court of its shackles, allowing it to possibly regain its constitutionallyordained sense of majesty.

Welcome waste as new wealthAfter fighting a losing battle with the growing tide of municipal waste, the Ministry ofEnvironment and Forests has notified the new Solid Waste Management Rules, 2016with clear responsibilities assigned to various classes of consumers. For these rules tohave any significant impact, however, the local bodies in charge of implementationshould appeal to the rational impulses of communities — a small effort at segregatingtrash at source would be a good thing for their household budgets. Cities and towns

would then have to provide the logistical chain to evacuate waste, with a cashcompensation system in place for the consumer. In the absence of such a system, therules issued 16 years ago failed spectacularly. Urban municipal bodies found itconvenient to merely transport waste to the suburbs, sometimes through privateagencies that secured lucrative long-term contracts. Policy failure is all too evidentwhen Environment Minister Prakash Javadekar says that the estimated 62 milliontonnes of waste a year is not fully collected or treated. Worryingly, it will go up to some165 million tonnes in 2030, and dramatic episodes of air and water pollution from



mountains of garbage as seen in Mumbai and Bengaluru in recent times could bewitnessed in more places.

A productive start to containing the problem could be made if urban governments showthe political will to rein in bulk generators of municipal solid waste. For instance, the

provisions in the new rules for hotels and restaurants to support composting, orbiomethanation, and for large housing societies, commercial establishments and otherbulk producers to segregate waste, need to be rigorously enforced. Cess funds collectedfor the Swachh Bharat programme could be deployed to scale up infrastructure forcomposting, biomethanation and recycling, which Mr. Javadekar admits are grosslyinadequate. Evidently, the Centre and the State governments have not so far taken theexisting rules seriously: less than a third of the collected waste is being processed. Evenwhere environmentally conscious citizens segregate at source, the chain of managementdumps it all in landfills. The central monitoring committee under the Ministry shouldensure that local bodies do not continue functioning in business-as-usual mode. Theyshould align their operations, including waste management contracts, with the newrules under the annual operating plan. The Ministry should also enlist the services ofragpickers under formal systems such as cooperatives. Although there are provisionsfor fines for littering and non-segregation, this should be a second-order priority formunicipalities, which should focus principally on creating reliable systems to handledifferent waste streams. If India could start with the separation of its ‘wet’ waste fromthe rest and produce good compost, that could transform cities and towns into cleanand green havens filled with trees, gardens, lakes and rivers. It would also salvagemillions of tonnes of recyclable plastic, precious metals and other materials. Garbologystudies confirm that landfills swallow precious wealth every day. The time has come torecover it.

Another killing in Bangladesh The death of one more secular activist in Bangladesh this week is a chilling reminder ofthe unrelenting assault by Islamist groups on freedom of expression. NazimuddinSama d was returning from classes in Dhaka’s Jagannath University when attackerswaylaid him. They hacked his head with a machete, and then shot him. In initialcomments the police did not say whether Islamists were responsible, but it is noaccident that Samad ’s name figured in a hit list of 84 Bangladeshi bloggers andactivists compiled in 2013 and sent anonymously to media organisations. The mannerof the 26-year- old law student’s murder bore close similarity to the death by machetesof four bloggers in 2015. To reaffirm that Bangladesh is a secular republic, youngcampaigners have taken the fight to Islamist groups in multiple ways. They have braved

threats from extremists and carried on writing, in print and on social media platforms. They have also, importantly, mobilised tens of thousands of Bangladeshis in seekingstrict punishment for Islamists implicated in war crimes in the nine months leading upto the liberation of Bangladesh. These activists — mostly students and writers/bloggers

— are at the vanguard of the ongoing struggle to define the secular and democraticnature of the Bangladeshi state, an issue that has been acrimoniously contested bypolitical parties, Islamists and the military since the 1971 war.



Upon her return to power in 2009, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina made the war crimestribunal central to the Awami League’s politics, and brought leaders of Islamist groups,notably the Jamaat-e-Islami, to trial for collaborating with the Pakistan army in waratrocities. When a key Jamaat leader, Abdul Quader Mollah, was handed lifeimprisonment, huge protests erupted in Dhaka’s Shahbag Square demanding that he

be punished with the death penalty. The protests, named the Shahbag movement,called for accountability as well as returning Bangladesh’s Const itution to its initialsecular character. It is reported, for instance, that Samad had participated in theShahbag protests. There is, however, anxiety that Sheikh Hasina is using the warcrimes issue not only to secure the secular character of Bangladesh, but also toconsolidate her grip on power. There is a grain of truth in the charge that she has beensomewhat slow, inactive even, in bringing those responsible for the threats and assaultson secular activists to book. She has used a variety of measures to discredit her long-time rival, Khaleda Zia of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, and to target journalistsand well-regarded civil society members such as Grameen Bank founder MuhammadYunus. Samad’s death is a cautionary alert that the logical extension of the purportedfight to rescue the progressive vision of the country’s founders is to assert itsdemocratic ethos. Bloggers cannot be the only opposition to extremism.

On detecting and delaying diabetesBetween 1980 and 2014, the age-adjusted prevalence of diabetes in India more thandoubled among men (from 3.7 to 9.1 per cent) and women (4.6 to 8.3 per cent). Inabsolute terms, the number of diabetics in India galloped from 11.9 million to 64.5million in the same period, according to a paper published on April 2, 2016 in TheLancet . India stands next only to China in the prevalence of diabetes, and contributesnearly one-sixth to the global disease burden of 422 million. It will be difficult to meetthe UN global target of halting adult prevalence of diabetes at 2010 levels by 2025 if the

current rates of increase continue in China, India and other low- and middle-incomecountries. In fact, if the post-2000 trend continues, the global prevalence of diabetes in2025 will surpass 700 million. It is true that increase in longevity and populationgrowth have been responsible for the spike in diabetes in India, but going forward it isrising levels of obesity that could well be the more significant contributing factor.Obesity is the most important risk factor for diabetes. According to the paper publishedin The Lancet , the number of obese men in India increased from 0.4 million in 1975 to9.8 million in 2014; and from 0.8 million to 20 million women during the same period.Indeed, in 2014 there were 3.7 million severely obese women in the country. Besidesobesity, there are other factors that put Indians at greater risk of developing diabetes.Increased consumption of sugar-rich and refined food products, central adiposity

(commonly seen in Indian adults), sedentary lifestyles, and genetic susceptibility makemore Indians vulnerable to the disease than Caucasians.

According to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 report, the number of years bothmen and women live with disease and disability has shot up since 1990. In India,diabetes is one of the major causes of disability in adults. With a direct annual cost of$73 billion, the economic burden of diabetes in India is considerable. And a substantialpart of treatment costs is met by out-of-pocket expenditure. Concerted efforts must be



directed at preventing and delaying the onset of the disease. A relatively easy and short-term intervention that can go a long way in keeping the disease burden under check isto diagnose and treat gestational diabetes — mostly through dietary changes andphysical activity. The management of gestational diabetes — started in Chennai, it isnow a national programme — which can prevent the disease in mother and child, has

unfortunately not got the same attention as prevention of vertical transmission of HIV.Another missed opportunity is early detection of pre-diabetes when the blood sugarlevel is higher than normal but not elevated enough to be classified as diabetes. Theprogression to full-blown diabetes can be effectively delayed and even preventedthrough dietary changes and increased physical activity. This is why public awarenessis crucial.

The wages of negligenceEven in a country that has unreasonably high tolerance for poor safety planning andlack of governmental accou ntability, the tragedy in the Puttingal Devi temple in Kerala’sKollam district is a complete shocker. The death of more than a hundred people andinjuries caused to scores by explosions in a storehouse, was a result of grossnegligence, a combination of appalling carelessness and a reckless disregard for thesafety of others. That the deadly blaze was triggered by a display of fireworks that wereset off despite permission having been refused by the District Collector raises seriousquestions about the actions of the organisers. What is equally surprising is the failureof the police to implement the decision of the district administration and stop the show.

The police and the organisers were in breach of the law on another count as well — thatof bursting firecrackers after 10 p.m. As with all such distressing incidents, there isbound to be a search for post-hoc explanations, but the only way to ensure that lessonsare learnt from the heart-rending tragedy is to conduct a quick and impartial policeinvestigation and bring the guilty to book. Political parties must refrain from trying to

extract electoral capital from the tragedy in poll-bound Kerala — it is important that thetruth is not crowded out by the noise. A case has already been registered against thetemple committee and the contractors hired for the fireworks; at the same time, theKerala government has ordered a judicial inquiry, as it did in the last major templetragedy five years ago, when over a hundred Sabarimala pilgrims were killed in astampede.

Ironical as it may seem, Kerala on paper is better placed to ensure the safety of massgatherings, especially religious ones, than other States. The State’s Department ofRevenue and Disaster Management has a research-based institute dedicated to thestudy of accidents and has brought out a standard operating procedure for festival

organisers. If government departments had taken the code seriously — it was preparedafter a study of five major mass religious gatherings in the State including Sabarimala — there would have been no opportunity for anyone to violate orders, notably on thestaging of fireworks and stocking of incendiary materials. Zero tolerance for violations,and a strong commitment to safety even in the remotest of locations, should be non-negotiable if human lives are not to be put in harm’s way. The speedy attentionbestowed by the Central government to the relief operations and the support providedby the armed forces and expert medical teams have raised the profile of the Kollam



incident and created a new benchmark for collaboration between the Centre and Statesduring such emergencies. All contingency planning ultimately rests on protocols thatshould be tested through regular field drills. With nearly 50 major annual massgatherings for religious occasions, including the mammoth Thrissur Pooram which isround the corner, Kerala cannot afford to fail again.

When populism trumps public safety The Sunday fire tragedy at the Puttingal Devi temple in Kollam, Kerala, which claimedmore than 100 lives, raises several questions with regard to public safety managementand the role of the district administration in ensuring safety during occasions such asmajor religious festivals. The chief issue is whether the Kollam administration — mainlythe police — was incompetent or merely negligent because of external pressure. Agargantuan Kumbh Mela that attracts several millions passes off without incident. Buta Kollam festival that draws just a few thousands ends in a colossal mishap. How do

you explain the contradiction? Is it that the Uttar Pradesh civil set-up is more sensitiveand efficient than its Kerala counterpart? Or is it a case of government reluctance to betough on the eve of Assembly elections?

One of the most complex tasks the Indian administration has to perform is the handlingof massive religious congregations. Both of us have supervised a large number offestivals. On all these occasions we have had to encounter devotee indiscipline of theworst order, particularly the desire to be the closest to the sanctum sanctorum. Devoteeexuberance is usually compounded by the lack of control over the event by theorganisers, normally a local committee of citizens, some with a dubious reputation formanaging finances and some with high political connections. Public safety, for them, isoften low priority. If we have had only as few accidents as have happened over the

years, it is because of sheer chance rather than professional crowd control.

Festivals and fireworks

The distinctive feature of many Kerala festivals is that they cut across religions, and arelooked upon as more of a social event. The fireworks display is the most exciting featureof religious festivals in Kerala. In fact, it is a huge draw for foreign tourists. While itbegan as a Hindu phenomenon, over the years, a few Christian groups also startedemulating it. The practice usually is of simultaneous release into the skies of dazzlinghigh-decibel firecrackers by rival teams. Each of the competing groups is finallyassessed by the variety of fireworks they are able to assemble, the colour of theirdisplay, the number of layers they are able to climb in the sky and the intensity of the

sound produced. Many who have witnessed the Thrissur Pooram (to be celebrated inthe next few weeks) and the Thiruvambadi festival would vouch for the excitement thatthe display generates.

In the Kollam horror, there are reports that the local administration had turned downthe request for a fireworks competition between groups which are regular participantsin the festivities and come from various other temples in the region. If this was so, whywas the order not implemented?



The site of the temple was a heavily built-up residential locality, and most of those wholived in the immediate neighbourhood were stoutly opposed to an excessive use offireworks during the annual festival. Reports suggest that a local resident — an elderlywoman — is known to have appealed to the district collector against allowing fireworksbecause they posed a threat to her house nearby every year. There is therefore reason to

believe that the festival organisers were least sensitive to local feelings, and their onlyconcern each year was to do better than the previous occasion.

This exuberance is not peculiar to the Kollam temple or to Kerala. All over the countrysuch mindless enthusiasm to expand the scope of a festival every year is a feature thatthe local authorities have to contend with and bitterly oppose, but not alwayssuccessfully. Any stern order limiting the festivities is always resisted, sometimes withthe support of the local ruling party. The overruling of a district collector orsuperintendent of police is a common occurrence. The administration in Kollameventually permitted a mere display of fireworks instead of the competition.

No State government in India would like to antagonise even the smallest of religiousdenominations. This is the tragedy of our polity. There are no signs that this appallingsituation will change even in decades.

Lessons not learnt

Both stampedes and fireworks at festivals have caused a large number of casualties inour country. Perhaps these account for far more than what we have suffered at thehands of terrorists. The stampedes at the Mahamaham Festival in Tamil Nadu (1992;50 casualties), the Nashik Kumbh Mela (2003; 39 casualties) and Mandher Devi templein Satara, Maharashtra (2005; nearly 300 casualties) come readily to mind. Considerthese along with the fire accidents in Delhi’s Uphaar cinema (1997; 59 deaths) and

Kolkata’s AMR I Hospital (2011; over 90 deaths) to convince yourself that we either donot have a uniformly stringent fire safety policy, or the wisdom and courage to enforce itif we ever had one.

We have learnt only few lessons from these gory happenings. The routine appointmentsof commissions of inquiry and suspensions of police personnel are a knee-jerk responseto what is becoming a human rights violation by the state in neglecting fundamentals toregulate religious assembles and to strictly implement safety measures on publicoccasions or inside public buildings. You have to watch movies at the so-calledmultiplex cinema houses in our principal cities to understand the dimensions ofpotential horrors. Many of these premises have narrow, steep staircases to substitute

for lifts and escalators in the event of a fire. Also, they have entries and exits solely onone side of the auditorium, enabling conditions for a classic stampede. Local authoritiesare grievously callous on such matters and are known to give licences to cinemas andrestaurants for an unspecified bribe that is shared by many at the top and in the lowerrungs of the administrative hierarchy.

The tragedy is there is hardly any open debate in the country on safety at our publicpremises and gatherings in open spaces. There is a near paralysis in the civil



administration on such vital matters, attributable mainly to acute political interference. The situation is so bad these days that an organiser of a public function can go to agovernment official to either flaunt his religion — minority or majority — or hisproximity to the ruling party in order to browbeat the official concerned into permittingeven the most objectionable event. The Kollam tragedy is a manifestation of this disease

that afflicts our polity. Such tragedies will continue to occur if public safety policies arenot delinked from religion and politics, and the greed which dictates the response ofmany public officials, both petty and senior.

A final word about police practices and accountability. Many senior law enforcementofficials continue to believe — wrongly — that throwing in a large number of policemenat a temple or a public meeting addressed by celebrities is a guarantee against chaos ordisaster of the kind we saw at Kollam. Numbers deployed can help only to an extent. Itis the quality of deployment, combined with the severity of adherence to the standardoperating procedure which would eventually win the day.

Clearing the smoke on LPG reformOne of the less discussed but potentially far- reaching features of this year’s Budget wasthe launch of the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY). The Rs.8,000-crore schemeaims to provide subsidised liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) connections to about 60 percent of below poverty line (BPL) households — roughly as many households as there arein Germany — by 2019. The idea itself is not new as subsidised connections to BPLhouseholds have been provided under various schemes even earlier. However, the scaleof this programme is what sets it apart. Until 2013, 75 lakh predominantly rural,subsidised BPL connections were disbursed under various schemes. Fifty-five lakhsubsidised BPL connections are claimed to have been provided in the last year underthe “Give Back” scheme linked to the “Give It Up” camp aign. In comparison, the PMUY

aims to provide subsidised connections to five crore households in three years.

Fuel use and health

About 75 crore Indians, especially women and girls, are exposed to severe household airpollution (HAP) from the use of solid fuels such as biomass, dung cakes and coal forcooking. A report from the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare places HAP as thesecond leading risk factor contributing to India’s disease burden. In comparison, poorsanitation, which has received much-needed attention of late, ranks 15th. According tothe World Health Organization, solid fuel use is responsible for about 13 per cent of allmortality and morbidity in India (measured as Disability-Adjusted Life Years), and

causes about 40 per cent of all pulmonary disorders, nearly 30 per cent of cataractincidences, and over 20 per cent each of ischemic heart disease, lung cancer and lowerrespiratory infection. Thus, the PMUY is a very welcome initiative. However, the real testof the PMUY and its successor programmes will be in how they translate the provisionof connections to sustained use of LPG or other clean fuels such as electricity or biogas.

To pass this test, a few more issues need to be addressed.

Cost and distribution



First, cooking fuel should be available at an affordable cost to back up the initialprovision of subsidised connections. Each BPL household would have to spend up toRs.5,000 each year on LPG even at current subsidised prices — in addition to a one-time cost of Rs.1,800 for the connection — which may be unaffordable to many. ThePMUY has proposed payment in instalments for stoves and cylinders to address this

challenge, which is welcome. In addition, it may consider increasing LPG subsidies forthe first few cylinders bought in a year by BPL households. With the success of the“Give It Up” campaign and the proposal to proactively exclude all those earning aboveRs.10 lakh per annum from LPG subsidies, the burden on the exchequer for theincreased subsidies to BPL households may be minimal, particularly in comparison tothe huge health and economic benefits that come with it.

Second, the distribution system needs to be strengthened to be able to meet theexpected increase in demand, particularly in rural areas, as non-availability of fuelcould push people back towards using solid fuels. Ensuring reliable, sustained, last-mile supply would require multiple steps. It requires a large extension of distributionnetworks, especially in rural areas, since each rural distribution agency typically catersto fewer customers than urban agencies. Reports that many Jan-Dhan accounts havezero balance raise concerns about whether subsidy transfer to such accounts will workeffectively; so, implementation of direct benefit transfer schemes must be made morerobust. Effective monitoring and grievance redressal systems are equally important toensure that problems in the scheme are highlighted and addressed early. The schemeshould be accompanied by a focussed public relations campaign, similar to the nationaltuberculosis or Swachh Bharat campaigns, to build awareness and create a “demandpull”, not only for clean cooking but also for good service. Ensuring reliable supply isalso likely to require strengthening the refining, bottling and pipeline infrastructure. Inthe absence of such supporting measures, the PMUY runs the risk of failing like theRajiv Gandhi Grameen Vidyutikaran Yojana, which succeeded in extending physical

electricity infrastructure at great cost but has not been able to ensure a reliable supplyof affordable electricity to households.

Widening the reach

Finally, while the PMUY targets only BPL households, there is a need to widen the netfor two reasons: one, because of known inclusion and exclusion errors in BPL lists, andtwo, because BPL may be a narrow definition of deprivation and many non-BPLhouseholds may also not be able to afford LPG connections. The wider net could just beall rural households or all households except those meeting well-defined exclusioncriteria such as ownership of certain categories of assets.

The PMUY is a bold and much-needed initiative, but it should be recognised that this is just a first step. It will result in truly smokeless kitchens only if the government followsup with measures that go beyond connections to actual usage of LPG. This may requireconcerted efforts cutting across Ministries beyond petroleum and natural gas andincluding those of health, rural development and women and child welfare.

Giving peace a chance in Yemen



AUnited Nations-backed ceasefire between the Saudi-allied forces loyal to PresidentAbd-Rabbuh Mansour Hadi and Shia Houthi rebels took effect in Yemen on Sunday,raising hopes that the warring factions may purposefully work towards a negotiatedsolution. It is not clear how long the truce will hold, given the complexity of the conflictand past experience. Three previous attempts to reach a ceasefire had collapsed. This

time around, the rebels and the Saudi-backed forces have announced that they willrespect the truce. Saudi Arabia and its allies started bombing Yemen in March 2015with the obvious goal of reinstating the ousted government of President Hadi andweakening the Shia Houthi rebels who had captured the capital Sanaa. But after a yearof relentless bombing by Riyadh, the Houthis still hold the capital city and controlmuch of western Yemen. In fact, if anyone has secured a strategic advantage out of theYemeni war, it is al-Qaeda. The stateless chaos amid a disastrous war has helped al-Qaeda expand its footprint steadily in the country, and it now runs a mini state fromsoutheastern Yemen. On the other side, the war has turned Yemen into a humanitariancatastrophe. More than 6,000 people, half of them civilians, have been killed since theSaudi bombing started, and about two million have been displaced. An estimated 80 percent of the population needs humanitarian assistance, while millions of children facemalnutrition. If the war is allowed to rage on, its humanitarian and strategic costswould be much graver.

But there may be no easy way out. The real reason for the conflict lies in the complexgeopolitics of the region. Saudi Arabia sees the Houthis as a front for Iran and does notwant a Shia-dominated government in its backyard. Western countries, particularly theU.S. and the U.K., have continued to supply weapons to Riyadh and turned their eyesaway from the brazen violation of human rights for fear of further antagonising SaudiArabia, their key West Asian ally that is already piqued by the Iran nuclear deal. Thishas given the Saudis a free hand in Yemen. And as things stand, they have messed itup. The ceasefire, however, is a starting point. But for it to succeed, the regional powers

should set aside their geopolitical games and come together to address thehumanitarian problem pragmatically. The Saudis should realise that they cannotforcibly keep away from power the Houthis, who claim to represent the country’s Shiacommunity that makes up between 30 and 45 per cent of the total population. TheHouthis and their Iranian backers should also understand that they cannot just takeover the whole country. Any practical solution will require an end to external militaryintervention and a cessation of violence, followed by the formation of a government ofnational unity. These cannot be achieved unless Iran and Saudi Arabia cooperate, andin a manner that puts their selfish interests aside. Whether they have the vision to dothis is uncertain, but a failure to put the region before narrow geopolitical interestswould result in this ceasefire meeting the fate of previous ones.

How to be free of casteAs India marks the 125th birth anniversary of B.R. Ambedkar this week, it mustacknowledge the pervasiveness of discrimination and confront it head-on



This year, India has sponsored the observation of the birth anniversary of BabasahebAmbedkar at the United Nations for the first time. The Permanent Mission of India tothe UN shall commemorate the 125th birth anniversary of the Dalit icon on April 13 atthe UN headquarters, a day before his date of birth, with an international seminar on‘Combating inequalities to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)’. A note

circulated by the Indian mission says that the “national icon” remains an inspiration formillions of Indians and proponents of equality and social justice across the globe.“Fittingly, although it’s a matter of coincidence, one can see the trace of Babasaheb’sradiant vision in the SDGs adopted by the UN General Assembly to eliminate poverty,hunger and socio-econ omic inequality by 2030.”

Juxtapose this with a recent report on caste-based discrimination by the UnitedNations Human Right Council’s Special Rapporteur for minority issues that has stungthe Indian government, provoking it to raise questions about the l ack of “seriousness ofwork” in the UN body and the special rapporteur’s mandate. Ambedkar, the architect ofthe Indian Constitution, would definitely not be pleased. Nor are the Dalit rightsactivists in India and abroad.

Precept and practice

This is the most recent example of India’s hypersensitivity on discussing the caste issueat any UN forum — the objections raised by the Permanent Mission of India to the UNin Geneva to the March 2016 report of Special Rapporteur Rita Izsák-Ndiaye ofHungary. Her report characterised caste-based discrimination as that based on“descent”, labour stratification, untouchability practices and forced endogamy and saidthat this was a “global phenomena” that impacted more than 250 million peopleworldwide — largely in India, but also in countries as diverse as Yemen, Japan andMauritania. Her report cited India’s National Crime Records Bureau data to highlight

that there were increasing atrocities against Scheduled Castes — an increase inreported crimes of 19 per cent in 2014 compared to the previous year. The reportmentions that despite legislative prohibition of manual scavenging, the state hasinstitutionalised the practice with “local governments and municipalities employingmanual scavengers”.

Earlier, during the 2001 World Conference against Racism in Durban, when there was amajor effort by Indian NGOs to include casteism on the agenda, the Indian governmenthad vehemently opposed it. Ashok Bharti, chair of the National Confederation of Dalitand Adivasi Organisations , recently told a Web publication: “The whole governmentsuffers from a mindset of the upper castes, that are victims of their own guilt and will

therefore try to hide their faults.” He said that if the Indian government had done sowell in supporting Dali ts, “why have there been thousands of cases of atrocities in thepast 25 years? How many perpetrators have been punished? If domestic pressures andremedies do not work, internationalisation was a viable option to seek improvement inthe status of Dalits.”

The lesson from all this which India must learn is what the then UN Special Rapporteuron contemporary forms of racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related



intolerance, Doudou Diène of Senegal, said a decade ago to the international conferenceon ‘Human Rights and Dignity of Dalit Women’ in November 2006 at The Hague: “Youhave to go beyond the law. You have to get to the identity constructions. How, overcenturies, the Indian identity has been constructed. All forms of discrimination can betraced historically and intellectually. One of the key strategies of the racist,

discriminating communities is to make us believe that discrimination is natural, that itis part of nature, and that you have to accept it. This is part of their ideological weaponand it is not true. Discrimination does not come from the cosmos. Caste-baseddiscrimination can be retraced and deconstructed to combat it. Please engage in thisethical and intellectual strategy to uproot what is building and creating the culture andm entality of discrimination.”

Even 68 years after Independence, Dalits and Adivasis continue to face mind-bogglingsocial discrimination and spine-chilling atrocities across the country. One in fourIndians admits to practising caste untouchability in some form in their homes — thisshocking fact has been revealed by a mega pan-India survey conducted by the NationalCouncil of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) and University of Maryland, U.S.Indians belonging to virtually every religious and caste group, including Muslims,Christians, Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, admit to practising untouchability,shows the India Human Development Survey (IHDS-II) of 2011-12. Mere tokenism andlip service will not do. India needs to jettison the centuries-old dehumanising baggage ofcaste stigma once and for all. It should have nothing to hide but see the reality as it isand confront the issues involved head-on.

Towards a transformation

If India has to move ahead to a caste-free nation, the need is for an all-embracing,inclusive pan-India social movement of social and cultural transformation. Ambedkar

showed the way: “Turn in any direction you like, caste is the monster that crosses yourpath. You cannot have political reform, you cannot have economic reform, unless youkill this monster.” In fact, the Dalit political vision today not only encompasses the mostoppressed, exploited and marginalised sections of the caste system but also othersections which took on the Brahminical hegemony in 1970s and 1980s — the backwardcastes and Adivasis. The Dalit political vision has now moved beyond the rhetoric of theBahujan Samaj Party and the factions of the Republican Party and the decorative Dalitpoliticos in the Congress, Bharatiya Janata Party, Samajwadi Party, Janata Dal (United)et al or even the low-caste-based Maoist organisations. New social movements likeSEWA (Self Employed Women’s Association) in Gujarat, NBA (Narmada BachaoAndolan) in Madhya Pradesh and MKSS (Mazdoor Kisan Shakti Sangathan) in

Rajasthan among others have fundamentally broadened the Dalit political vision.

The suicide of Rohith Vemula has exposed why attempts to co-opt Ambedkar as a‘Hindu reformer’ cannot succeed due to inherent ideological contradictions. Thechallenge posed by the Ambedkar S tudents’ Association at the Hyderabad CentralUniversity to the Brahminical hegemony of Hindutva represented by Akhil BharatiyaVidyarthi Parishad is in the very logic of the Dalit political vision.



Now, integrating social and cultural transformation with an economic alternative iscritical. Our tryst with destiny can go on and on. But let us grab this moment of truth.So that we can “redeem our pledge”, which has remained unredeemed for more than 68

years, to make conditions for the last men and women representing the Adivasis andDalits, the marginalised and poor people of India to give unto themselves what is truly

theirs. That is the challenge before the people of India.

The fatal accident of birthOn Dr. B.R. Ambedkar’s 125th birth anniversary, look closely at this year’s definingimage of Dalit struggle and aspiration. It is a photograph of the late Rohith Vemula,carrying Ambedkar’s portrait out of the Hyderabad Central University hostel. Rohith,who was evicted along with his friends, spent the next fortnight on the pavementoutside the university, in a makeshift tent decorated with that portrait.

If you look again at the photograph, the expression on Rohith’s face seems to be one offrustration and grief at a fall from grace. He was ousted from the only place that hadprotected him and afforded him shelter as a matter of right. When he was thrown out,he lacked privacy even to commit suicide. In his suicide note, he apologised to “Umaanna”, whose room he had borrowed to die in. A scholar without a uni versity hall ofresidence, his stipend denied for seven months, his debts mounting and no discernibleend in sight, Rohith chose to end his life. A life snuffed out, by a fatal accident of birth.

Ambedkar’s life too saw him being denied a place to live in. In a speech, he narratedhow: “With a scholarship granted by Baroda State, I had gone for education abroad.After returning from England, in accordance with the terms of the agreement, I came toserve under the Baroda Durbar… Neither a Hindu nor any Musli m was prepared to rentout a house to me in the city of Baroda… I decided to get accommodation in a ParsiDharamsala. After having stayed in America and England, I had developed a faircomplexion and an impressive personality. Giving myself a Parsi name, ‘Adalji Sorabji’, Ibegan to live in the Parsi Dharamsala… But soon the people got wind of the fact thatHis Highness the Maharaja Gaekwad of Baroda had appointed a Mahar boy as anofficer in his Durbar… my secret was soon out.” Ambedkar had to resign and l eave forBombay.

Historical prejudice

Now look at the photograph yet again, you will now see how little things have changedin India since Ambedkar himself walked the path towards education and constitutional

change. Almost every story of oppression, of an upwardly mobile Dalit who manages tosurvive India’s culture of silent acquiescence, is the story of an aspiration for learningrunning aground on the fatal accident of the protagonist’s birth. In the Mahabharata,we have the story of Dronacharya asking E kalavya for a sacrifice of his archer’s thumb,simply because a boy from the non-warrior caste could not have learnt the arts of war.In the Ramayana, the Shudra ascetic Shambuka was killed by Lord Rama forperforming penances which were reserved for those of priestly birth.



In his lecture on ‘Annihilation of Caste’, Ambedkar wrote: “Some people seem to blameRama because he wantonly and without reason killed Shambuka. But to blame Ramafor killing Shambuka is to misunderstand the whole situation. Ram Raj was a Raj basedon Chaturvarnya. As a king, Rama was bound to maintain Chaturvarnya. It was hisduty therefore to kill Shambuka, the Shudra, who had transgressed his class and

wanted to be a Brahmin… But this also shows that penal sanction is necessary for themaintenance of Chaturvarnya. Not only penal sanction is necessary, but penalty ofdeath is necessary. That is why Rama did not inflict on Shambuka a lesser punishment.

That is why Manu-Smriti prescribes such heavy sentences as cutting off the tongue orpouring of molten lead in the ears of the Shudra who recites or hears the Veda.”

Ambedkar recognised that an egalitarian society could never be built on a foundation ofcaste- classified occupations. He wanted that “the supporters of Chaturvarnya must give an assurance that they could successfully classify men and they could induce modernsociety in the twentieth century to reforge the penal sanctions of Manu- Smriti”. Thesupporters that Ambedkar referred to included Mahatma Gandhi who, to many a Hinduof 1 936, was “an oracle, so great that when he opens his lips it is expected that theargument must close and no dog must bark”. Ambedkar, however, persisted, in hisargument, because he felt that “the world owes much to rebels who would dare to arguein the f ace of the pontiff and insist that he is not infallible”.

Caste and the nation

A decade later, when it fell to Ambedkar’s lot to draw up a Constitution for theRepublic, he not only banned untouchability in all its forms but sought effectivesafeguards to enforce equality of opportunity to those who were hitherto deprived. In hismemorandum to the Constituent Assembly he explained the safeguards “to mean thatthe Scheduled Castes are more than a minority and that any protection given to the

citizens and to the minorities will not be adequate for the Scheduled Castes”. In hisspeech to the Constituent Assembly on November 25, 1949, he warned, “I am of theopinion that in believing that we are a nation, we are cherishing a great delusion. Howcan people divided into several thousands of castes be a nation? The United States hasno caste problem. In India there are castes. The castes are anti-national. In the firstplace because they bring about separation in social life. They are anti-national alsobecause they generate jealousy and antipathy between caste and caste. But we mustovercome all these difficulties if we wish to become a nation in reality. For fraternity canbe a fact only when there is a nation. Without fraternity, equality and liberty will be node eper than coats of paint.”

Was Ambedkar satisfied with his engrafting of liberty, equality and fraternity into thenational scripture? The evidence is ambiguous. Five years on, Dr. Anup Singh, a RajyaSabha member from Punjab, asked Ambedkar, “Last time wh en you spoke, you saidthat you would burn the Constitution.” Ambedkar retorted, “The reason is this: We builta temple for god to come in and reside, but before the god could be installed, if the devilhad taken possession of it, what else could we do except destroy the temple? We did notintend that it should be occupied by the Asuras. We intended it to be occupied by theDevas. That’s the reason why I said I would rather like to burn it.”





In the present context, nationalism is being invoked in a coercive manner spreadingfear and terror among people. Ambedkar, the principal architect of our Constitution, inhis numerous writings reflected on nationalism and gave valuable insights. He arguedvery passionately for adequate representation of the untouchables in the legislature,executive and public service. Nationalism was used as a cover to negate such demands.

In fact, he categorically wrote that nationalism became the core plank to take a standagainst the struggling humanity within the country and thereby creating fertileconditions for the upsurge of rank communalism. Indeed, what he wrote beforeIndependence has become a grim reality today. The communal fascist forces have notonly secured state power at the Centre but also control and command the stateapparatus and their functions at the national level to serve their sinister design.

It is instructive to note that Ambedkar very persuasively, prophetically and incisivelywrote that the governing class in India always raised the cry of ‘nationalism/Bhara tmata is in danger’ whenever the exploited classes demanded justice and fair and equaltreatment and affirmative action for representation in the legislature, executive andpublic service. He also pointed out that the governing class was aware that classideology, class interests, class issues and class conflicts would spell disaster for its ruleand therefore always sidetracked the issues and interests of the exploited masses byplaying upon the sentiment of nationalism and national unity. He described it as amisuse of nationalism. It is tragic that what Ambedkar wrote much before ourIndependence is now becoming a grim reality in contemporary India. Under the presentdispensation at the Centre and several States, ‘Make in India’ is witnessingconcentration of wealth in a few hands, growing inequality, galloping unemployment,farmers’ suicides and widespread disenchantment of the youth and all sections of thetoiling people.

It is well known that during the freedom struggle untouchables demanded separate

electorates. Such a demand was described as anti-national in spirit. Ambedkar rejectedthe description by stating that separate electorates for Muslims, Sikhs and Christiansdid not make them anti- nationals. Then he insightfully commented, “Obviously,nationalism and anti-nationalism have nothing to do with the electoral system. They arethe results of the extra- electoral forces.” In 21st century India, it is the extra -electoralforces represented by the RSS and other extremist forces that have ‘dedicated experts’on history, culture and sociology trying to define nation and nationhood.

The importance of social justice

In his ‘Annihilation of Caste’ lecture, Ambedkar described caste as anti -national and

wanted to address the scourge of caste discrimination and exclusion through theinstrumentality of law, which he poetically described as “the greatest disinfectantagainst inequality”. In his speech in the Constituent Assembly, while stating that Indiais an integral whole, he cautioned, “The sooner we realise that we are not yet a nation inthe social and psychological sense of the word, the better for us. For then only we shallrealise the necessity of becoming a nation and seriously think of ways and means ofrealising the goal.” Therefore, he stressed on jus tice, not only political and economic butalso social justice. According to him, the key components of social justice are liberty,



equality and fraternity. Ambedkar said, “The system of rank and gradation is simplyanother way of enunciating the principle of inequality, so it may be truly said thatHinduism doesn’t recognise equality.” Ambedkar, being a compassionate rebel, foundBuddhism closer to his understanding of social justice. An economist too, the quest forsocial justice led him to become a social democrat and study Karl Marx’s ideology. He

compared the Buddha and Marx and said, “The ideology of Buddha and Karl Marx anda comparison between them just forces itself on me.”

Such notions of all-embracing nationalism included in its scope gender equality andwomen’s empowerment which he wanted to achieve in full measure through his epoch -making Hindu Code Bill. Democracy for Ambedkar was a way of living. He wrote,“Democracy is not merely a form of government. It is primarily a mode of associatedliving of conjoined communicated experience. It is essentially an attitude of respect andreverence towards fellow men.” He strongly felt that a society based on liberty, equalityand fraternity should be the only alternative to a caste society, and that is why heattached greater importance to the principle of “one man, one vote; one man, onevalue”. He was very particular that the democracy that he upheld went beyond theformal expressions of it and moved into the social and economic realm wheresubstantial democracy prevailed. This form of democracy, he imagined, would ensuredignity for all.

Nationalism that is inclusive

Some of the leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the RSS are now invokingnationalism in a coercive and recurrent manner. They underline the point thatnationalism is in danger and it is important to inculcate the spirit of nationalism amongcitizens, particularly students, to safeguard our unity and integrity. The slogan ‘BharatMata ki Jai’ is being used by them as the only symbol of nationalism and it is asserted

by the leaders of the BJP that recitation of this slogan by Indians affirms theircredibility as nationalists. They describe everything else as anti-national.

Ambedkar rightly observed, “Nationality is a social feeling. It is a feeling of a corporatesentiment of oneness which makes those who are charged with it feel that they are kithand kin. This national feeling is a double-edged feeling. It is at once a feeling offellowship of one’s own kith and kin and an anti -fellowship feeling for those who are notone’s own kith and kin. It is a feeling of ‘consciousness of kind’ which on the one handbinds together those who have it so strongly that it overrides all difference arising out ofeconomic conflicts or social gradations and, on the other, severs them from those whoare not of their kind. It is a longing not to belong to any other group. This is the essence

of what is called a nationality and national feeling.”

This elevated notion of nationality cannot be generated and achieved by meresloganeering based on a violent masculinist approach. It requires a concerteddemocratic effort and high level of statesmanship and vision to empower people andreclaim their dignity through the spread of education and provision of livelihoodemanating from an inclusive and non-alienating economy as a right. This is the true



meaning of Ambedkar’s nationalism, which is creative, compassionate andemancipatory in the universalistic sense.

Keeping tigers in the green zone

In a world facing tremendous pressure on space and resources, a rise in the number ofwild tigers is cause for cheer. The big cats are shy and react negatively to humanpresence. Any credible estimate of growth in their population indicates that a goodconservation policy has been at work. According to the latest count released by theWorld Wildlife Fund and the Global Tiger Forum, over 600 tigers have been added to theglobal number of some 3,200 in 2010. Yet, determining the health of an elusive speciesacross countries using absolute numbers is a flawed approach, because it risks shiftingthe focus away from the health of core populations that persist in a small area ofindividual countries. India made terrible counting mistakes in the past and failed toundertake intensive scientific censusing of tigers across the country. It came as nosurprise when tigers were wiped out of Sariska, and a chastened government correctedits methodologies. Using relatively better techniques, including photographic captureand recapture, the national assessment by the Ministry of Environment and Forestscame up with the estimate of 2,226 tigers in 2014, representing an increase from theprevious count of 1,706 in 2010, and well above the dismal figure of 1,411 four yearspreviously. Now that India is hosting the Third Asia Ministerial Conference on TigerConservation with successes to show, it should commit itself to scientific methods evenmore.

In the future, wild tigers will survive if countries can maintain inviolate core habitats forbreeding populations, ensure habitat connectivity for genetic exchange and crack downon poaching of both tigers and prey. There are wildlife reserves in Madhya Pradesh,Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Assam, West Bengal and Jharkhand where the Environment

Ministry wants to improve conditions for tiger breeding. As part of this exercise, Rs.380crore has been made available to Project Tiger this year. What is conspicuous, however,is the lack of political will to remove industrial pressures on forests. The proposal towiden National Highway 7 in Central India, for instance, has become controversialbecause of the dreadful impact it would have on tigers in the Kanha-Pench and Kanha-Nagzira corridors in Maharashtra. It is contradictory to talk of protecting sourcepopulations which occupy only 6 per cent of the habitat on the one hand, andsimultaneously engage in destructive activities in the same forests. Mitigating thedamage through benign alternatives is vital. Such green leadership would also makeIndia’s collaboration wit h other countries in the Global Tiger Forum meaningful,demonstrating to them the unique experience of a populous nation conserving forests

and wildlife and providing life-sustaining ecosystem services to all. The EnvironmentMinistry must also view independent scientific organisations as partners, and stopputting up bureaucratic hurdles to research in protected areas. Effective conservationdemands transparency.

The chill wind from the North



Old familiar dangers lurk in the corners of Latin America. More than a decade of hope — enshrined in the experiments in Venezuela — now seems extinguished. The “pinktide” of electoral victories from Venezuela to Bolivia and upwards to Nicaragua appearsto have receded. The Old Right has rejected the stentorian tones of the military for themellifluous language of anti- corruption. Venezuela’s Bolivarians — the current face of

its Left — lost the parliamentary elections, while Bolivia’s Evo Morales failed to amendthe constitution to give him a fourth presidential term. Argentina’s electorate rejectedthe Peronist Left in favour of the Banker’s Right, while Brazil’s government of DilmaRousseff suffers from the outright hostility of the media conglomerates and theconservative establishment.

Bleakness does not define the continent. In Peru, Verónika Mendoza of the Broad Frontdid credibly in the first round of the presidential contest, while in Colombia theRevolutionary Armed Forces prepare to sign a peace agreement and bring their politicsto the ballot box. Institutions set up during the high point of the “pink tide”, such asthe Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (a regional trade platform),teleSUR (a regional media network), as well as various energy alliances (such asPetrocaribe and Petrosur), remain alive and reasonably well. New political currents andthese institutional alignments suggest that the “pink tide” is not going to be easy todismiss. It has established itself in the imagination of the people of Latin America andthrough the institutions set up over a decade ago.

Iraq distracts America

When Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez and Mr. Morales of Bolivia set in motion the Bolivarianalliance in 2004, the United States had its eyes on Iraq. The Global War on Terror,which now falsely included Iraq as a battlefield, absorbed the administration ofPresident George W. Bush. An attempted coup against Chavez’s government in 2002

had failed as a result of the popular outpouring of support for the Venezuelangovernment. Latin America’s Left took advantage of thi s opening — as well as highcommodity prices and demand from China — to build an alternative platform, whichthey called Bolivarianism. Named after Simón Bolívar, the liberator of Latin Americafrom Spanish rule, Bolivarianism produced institutions for regional development. Tradewithin the region denominated in local currencies allowed the regional states to producea new ethos.

The U.S., which sees Latin America as its backyard, continued to seek opportunities toundermine Bolivarianism. In 2006, U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela William Brownfielddeveloped a strategy for “dividing chavismo” (the followers of Chavez) and “isolating

Chavez internationally”. Plots and schemes appear in the U.S. State Department cables,with the ambassadors offering their own plans to destabilise governments loyal to theBolivarian process. Nothing much came of it in the Bush years. South America’seconomy enjoyed China’s voracious appetite for high -priced commodities whose profitsallowed the countries to build up social welfare schemes to improve the livelihood oftheir populations.

Obama goes South



The financial crisis of 2007- 08 dented China’s economy and saw the slow deteriorationof commodity prices. It took a few years for the economic impact to strike Latin Americawith ferocity. A sharp tumble in oil prices in the summer of 2008 put the brakes onmany of the social programmes that had become essential to the Bolivarian dynamic. Itsignalled the weakness in the experiment against Western domination.

President Barack Obama’s administration focussed intently on Latin America.Opportunity struck with the 2009 coup in Honduras against the Left-wing governmentof Manuel Zelaya. Mr. Obama recognised the new military-backed government. Itopened the door to a more aggressive stance vis-à-vis Latin American states. Thepresidency of Peru’s Ollanta Humala (2011) and the second presidency of Chile’sMichelle Bachelet (2014) — both ostensibly of the Left — hastily drew in cabinetmembers vetted by the bankers and made their peace with the hegemony of the U.S.Chávez’s death in 2012 meant that the Bolivarians lost their most charismaticchampion. The impact of the Honduran coup and Chávez’s death had made itself feltalong the spine of Latin America. The U.S., it was being said, is back.

The entrenched old elite

Governments of the Left in Latin America relied upon the export of expensivecommodities. The money earned from these sales provided the governments of theregion the funds for essential social welfare programmes. Brazil, for instance,aggressively went after hunger and despair via its Fome Zero (Zero Hunger) and BolsaFamília (Family Allowance) schemes. What the governments could not do was toundermine the power of the old elites over the economy and build a new foundation forproduction in the region. When the funds dried up, the social welfare schemes suffered.Few alternative sources of revenue remained. Turning to the international financialmarkets put these countries in a situation of dependency which has its own political

impact.

Old elites of Latin America maintained their authority throughout the period of theLeftist ascendancy. They are closely linked to the military and to U.S. embassies. U.S.State Department cables — released by WikiLeaks — provide a window into the intrigueinside the embassies. In Bolivia, a U.S. diplomat met with opposition strategist JavierFlores and opposition leader Branko Marinkovic, both of whom talked about blowing upgas lines and engineering violence to destabilise the government of Mr. Morales. To helpthe Right- wing opposition in Nicaragua, the U.S. embassy hoped to encourage “funds toflow in the right direction”. These conspiracies built up the confidence of the elites andtheir associates. They waited to strike.

Descent into violence

Economic weakness provided the opportunity. Across the continent, from Chile toBrazil, news reports began to appear of corruption in the cabinets of the governments.None of these media houses had previously taken an interest in corruption, nor did theyemphasise the stories of corruption among the old elite or their favoured politicalparties. It was the Workers’ Party in Brazil and the Socialist Party of Chile that felt the



warm breath of hypocrisy. Brazil and Venezuela’s well heeled took to the streets,bringing along with them their associated classes. The elements of a Latin AmericanSpring came together. It was left to the U.S. State Department to name this “Revolution”

— would it be the Tango Revolution or the Bossa Nova Revolution?

Dangerous violence against leaders at the local level became commonplace. InVenezuela, in one week of last month, three leaders were shot in cold blood — MayorMarco Tulio Carrillo of La Ceiba, Deputy César Vera of Tachira Legislative Council andFritz St. Louis of the Great Patriotic Pole party. Next door, in Brazil, a week later, twoactivists of the Rural Landless Workers’ Movement (MST) — Leomar Bhorbak andVilmar Bordim — were killed in an ambush, while the president of the Mogeiro branchof the Workers’ Party, Ivanildo F rancisco Da Silva, was killed in his home. These arenames that join those on a long roster of Left-wing local activists who are being killed insequence. Intimidation of activists is the goal.

No wonder, then, that veteran Leftist leader and National Senator Lucía Topolansky ofUruguay’s Broad Front warns of “a destablising operation” underway in Latin America.“Our countries have lived through very dark years of dictatorship, followed by the neo -liberal wave which also hurt people a lot,” she says. Senator Topolansky notes, “Nowthat democratic processes are beginning to consolidate, a destabilising wave appears.”Left leaders and activists from Mexico to Chile share this sentiment. They feel the chillwind from the North conjoined with the ambitions of their old elites.

Pockets of Leftist resilience remain intact. Ecuador’s Rafael Correa, Nicaragua’s DanielOrtega, El Salvador’s Salvador Sánchez Cerén and of course Mr. Morales of Bolivia rungovernments that struggle to maintain a progressive agenda. The atmosphere is againstthem, but there appears to be fight left in their administrations.

MST leader Joäo Pedro Stédile suggests that the progressive forces across Latin Americawill not be weakened by the defeats of their governments or by the aggression of the oldelites. Confidence in mass struggles remains high. That was illustrated when MST andother Left forces took to the streets to defend the government led by Dilma Rousseff.

The old elites fail to recognise the consolidation of mass movements such as the MST,that cannot be broken as easily as a government can be overthrown. There is nostomach in Latin America — even among the old elite — for violence against the massmovements. They will have to live with it. Which means that they will not be able tocapture society in the same way as they might capture the presidential palace.

A firm handshake, not an embraceDefinitive changes in policy do not happen suddenly one day; often they happen overweeks and months, and sometimes years. The three-day visit of U.S. Defence SecretaryAshton Carter, which concluded on Tuesday, appears to fit into a new securityparadigm that is unfurling under the Narendra Modi government. By agreeing to signthe Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), India has sent out a clearsignal that it has no inhibitions about being bound in strategic engagements with theU.S. Once concluded, the agreement would give American aircraft and warships access





agreement that the U.S. considers one of the “foundational agreements”, expected toease the two countries’ militaries into a tighter embrace. The expectation is the signingmay happen in the next few weeks or possibly in months, when Prime MinisterNarendra Modi is understood to be considering another visit to Washington to bidfarewell to U.S. President Barack Obama, but the moment has been missed.

Caution as new watchword

The LEMOA story is significant, not because of any perceived impact on India-U.S. ties,but because it fits into a pattern that seems to have defined foreign policy moves in Mr.Modi’s second year in office. If in the first year, he was brimming with confide nce, thesecond year has seen more caution, and while several big announcements were madeand Mr. Modi kept up his frenetic pace of travel, fewer agreements that were negotiatedwere actually signed or concluded. “It’s the curse of the last mile,” explaine d a diplomat,who described the disappointment during the Carter visit.

Consider Mr. Modi’s last visit abroad that began with a stop in Brussels. The visit toBrussels for the EU-India summit had been in the works for more than a year, aimed atrestarting negotiations on a free trade agreement, formally called the Bilateral Tradeand Investment Agreement (BTIA) that had been stalled for four years. More hinges onthis than good trade relations — concluding it would signify an end to the four-yearlogjam bet ween India and Italy over the marines’ issue, and is also key to India’saspirations this year to join the missile control and nuclear regimes, not to mention itsgoal of a UN Security Council permanent seat.

In private meetings, as well at a press conference addressed by the EU ambassador in January 2015, it was clear that the purpose of the Prime Minister’s visit would be toannounce the restart of talks with his European counterparts. Eventually, officials said

that despite talks going into extra time ah ead of the visit, neither side was able to say “Ido” when Mr. Modi arrived, primarily because of differences on guarantees and dataprotection.

When he went on to Washington, another deal expected to be announced choked at thelast minute: for six nuclear reactors to be built by Westinghouse. Like the BTIA, this isabout much more than the deal; it would be the first evidence that the India-U.S.nuclear deal announced by Mr. Modi and Mr. Obama in January 2015 was actually“done”. Since January last year, l egal teams have travelled back and forth betweenDelhi and Washington, trying to iron out the last wrinkle over the issue of liability, butproof of their agreement will only come with the announcement of the first commercial

deal, that is, with Westinghouse.

Visiting Delhi in January this year, Westinghouse CEO Daniel Roderick said in aninterview to Reuters that a “commercially significant announcement” would be madewhen Mr. Modi came to Washington for the nuclear summit in April, but acknowledgedthat the liability issue was a sticking point. The visit came and went without anyannouncement. In another interview on the eve of the Prime Minister’s visit, Mr.



Roderick said he now hoped for something “in June”, perhaps in time for when reportsindicate Mr. Modi will go again to Washington.

Delays beyond agreed deadlines

With Australia, the delay on the free trade agreement — the Comprehensive EconomicCooperation Agreement (CECA) as it is known — is equally significant, despite a “harddeadline” of December 2015 set by Mr. Modi and former Australian Prime Minister TonyAbbott for its completion. This week, Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said thetwo sides were “probably getting nearer to a conclusion”, but again no firm sign of itbeing done years after it was started and months past its deadline date.

And then there is the cliffhanger of the Rafale deal that has kept Indian and Frenchofficials on tenterhooks for more than a year now. When Mr. Modi made the unusualmove (rare for a Prime Minister to do) of announcing during a state visit to France thatIndia would buy 36 fighter aircraft in a government-to- government “off the rack”agreement, it was meant to signal decisive action that would cut through bureaucratichurdles in order to procure much-needed military hardware. The year since has provenanything but decisive. Negotiations on offsets had to be rescued by a personal callbetween Mr. Modi and François Hollande last year, but despite inviting the FrenchPresident to the Republic Day parade, no breakthrough was announced on the pricingissue, and only a memorandum of understanding could be signed. In January, Mr.Hollande said the deal would be announced in a matter of days, but a deal has not beenannounced three months later, although reports ind icate it is in its “final stages”.

This list is by no means exhaustive, and it doesn’t even include the list of agreementssigned that have not yet gotten off the ground. Clearly, there is no harm in prolongingnegotiations for any of the deals listed above or others that are in the works. It cannot

also be anyone’s case that bilateral relations hinge on deals alone, or that India alonebears the responsibility of their success or failure. What matters is the quality of therelations and not the ink expended on agreements. But if there is a pattern in all these,it is necessary to investigate why so many agreements that had been envisaged andanticipated in Mr. Modi’s first year in office are not clearing the final hurdles ofnegotiation in the second.

Pushback to personalised diplomacy

One of the obvious reasons is an over-dependence on summit-style diplomacy. With allhis flair and forceful manner, there are limits to what the Prime Minister can achieve in

one-to-one talks. At best, Mr. Modi and his counterpart can push through a particularlogjam, as he did with Mr. Obama on the nuclear deal, but the fine print will still haveto be vetted by negotiators. The spate of visits abroad, while excellent for the recordbooks, dilutes the already stretched Ministr y of External Affairs’ capacity forpreparation and follow- ups. It is to Mr. Modi’s credit that he seems to recognise thisand is slowing down that pace heading into the third year of his term. Many of theradical shifts he proposes — on alliances with the U.S., shifting his emphasis frombilateral diplomacy to commercial- and security-driven diplomacy, as well as bypassing





years have provided ample proof that rural distress has a disproportionate impact onconsumption. Given that the sector employs nearly half the workforce, everyone fromtoilet soap manufacturers to light commercial vehicle makers looks at rural spends toshore up bottomlines. Policymakers may not like it, but at this juncture it appearsIndia’s economic prospects are still dependent on the benevolence of the rain gods.

How to better the ‘new mediocre’ may well have embraced this philosophy. With the IMF paring down its global growthforecast, governments should first tweakeconomic policy to minimise vulnerabilities

Another forecast, another downgrade. The International Mone tary Fund’s (IMF) WorldEconomic Outlook (April 2016) tells us that the world economy will grow at 3.2 per centin purchasing power parity terms in 2016, not 3.6 per cent as forecast last October. In2017, it will grow at 3.5 per cent, not 3.8 per cent as forecast earlier. Contrast thesewith growth of 4.2 per cent in 1998-2007, the period before the financial crisis.

After years of fiscal and monetary stimuli, we are not about to see a return to highgrowth in the near future. Welcome to what the IMF Managing Director, ChristianLagarde, calls the “new mediocre”. The key question is whether economic policy can doanything at all about it. India’s own hopes of an early return to growth rate of over 8 percent hinge on the answer to this question.

The big surprise is that falling oil prices have failed to provide a shot in the arm for theworld economy. Oil prices fell by nearly half in 2015 compared to 2014 but this hasn’thelped. As revenues have fallen, oil exporters have cut their expenditure and this hasdepressed global demand. In emerging markets such as India, the fall in oil price hasn’tbeen passed on fully to consumers. In advanced economies, consumers are still weigheddown by the heavy debt they accumulated in the pre-crisis period, so they are in nomood to step up spending.

Falling oil prices have led to large cuts in capital expenditure in the oil and miningsectors. These cuts have had their own impact on non-energy sectors. A fall in oil pricestranslates into a fall in the inflation rate. Central banks should have cut their policyrates in response. They couldn’t because policy rates were already close to zero.Inflation has fallen thanks to a decline in oil prices but nominal interest rates haven’t.

This translates into a rise in real interest rates.

Two aspects of the global economy today are worrisome. First, in periods of weak

growth, financial markets are prone to bouts of turbulence. Nervous investors tend todump risky assets at the merest hint of trouble. If financial markets sink, even theIMF’s modest forecasts can be undermined. Emerging markets especially can bewrecked by sudden and large capital outflows. Second, geopolitical risks have risensharply. The World Economic Outlook mentions some of these: the humanitariandisaster and the influx of refugees into Europe; the possibility of the U.K. exiting theEuropean Union; the rise of protectionist tendencies in the U.S. and elsewhere; andinternal strife in several emerging markets. However, it omits a far more important





of slower population growth in the advanced world, people needing fewer things, andmodern investment being less capital intensive than in the past. Growing inequalityalso means more of the income goes into the hands of a few, whose capacity to consumeis limited. This causes savings to rise. More savings and lower investment translate intolower growth.

Economist Robert Gordon points out that economic growth is simply the combination ofpopulation growth and productivity growth. Like population growth, productivity growthtoo has fallen in recent years. So, a return to high growth is something of a mirage. Twoother economists, Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, contend that the world suffersfrom an overhang of excess debt, which is what led to the financial crisis. Economiestake years to come out of such an overhang.

The underlying message of the debate on the global economy among economists is astark one. Either the growth potential of the world economy is limited or, even if it isnot, we lack instruments to step up the growth rate without creating serious risks.

In dealing with the “new mediocre”, don’t aim for the sky. J ust focus on minimisingvulnerabilities in the economy, such as those in the financial sector or on the externalaccount. When he chose to stick to the fiscal deficit target for 2016-17 even if it meantsacrificing growth, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley

Mor e clarity on Zika’s dangers More than 50 years after the infectious pathogen, rubella virus, was identified as thecause of an epidemic of congenital defects, the Centres for Disease Control andPrevention (CDC) in the United States confirmed on April 13 that Zika virus infectionduring pregnancy causes microcephaly and other severe foetal brain defects.

The confirmation of causal relationship did not arise from a single definitive piece ofevidence. Instead, it was from “various lines of evidence, each of which suggests, butdoes not on its own prove, that prenatal Zika virus infection can cause adverseoutcomes”. Of the nine criteria used to find a causal relationship between Zika virusand microcephaly, the only criterion that was not met was the absence of experimentalstudies on animal models. The confirmation was published as a special report, again onApril 13, in the journal, The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM ).

An increase in the number of babies born with microcephaly in Brazil was first noticedin September 2015 and a similar spike in French Polynesia seen after a Zika virus

outbreak in 2013-2014. As of February 13, 2016, Brazil notified 5,280 cases ofmicrocephaly but only 1,345 have been investigated and classified. According to thegovernment, only 508 cases have been diagnosed as microcephaly.

A body of scientific evidence linking microcephaly to Zika virus infection duringpregnancy was available as early as January this year. One of the reasons the WorldHealth Organisation (WHO) declared Zika virus a public health emergency ofinternational concern on February 1, 2016 was that a causal relationship was “strongly



suspected” and hence required international efforts to investigate and understand it.Even in its last Zika situation report of April 7, the WHO stressed that there is scientificconsensus that the virus causes microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome (a disorderin which the body’s immune system attacks part of the peripheral nervous system).

Moving with caution

As the paper notes, despite the growing body of evidence, the scientific communityacted cautiously as no flavivirus has so far been linked to birth defects and no adversepregnancy outcomes were reported from countries that had experienced Zika outbreaksin the past. Also, no infectious pathogen after the rubella virus has been associatedwith birth defects in the last 50 years. In addition, alternative explanations to link Zikavirus infection during pregnancy and microcephaly were simply absent. Severalhypotheses, ranging from the use of genetically modified mosquitoes to keep the wildmale Aedes aegypti mosquitoes under check and adding pyriproxyfen larvicide todrinking water, were put out to explain the link. But these came from panickedresidents and not from the scientific community and, as expected, did not standscientific scrutiny.

Moving from a hypothesis to confirming the causal relationship marks a “turning point”in the Zika outbreak. All research efforts can now be directed at understanding the fullspectrum of birth defects caused by the infection. As the director of the CDC, Dr. TomFrieden, said, microcephaly could be the “tip of the iceberg of what we could see indamaging effects on the brain and other developmental problems”.

Rightly, a recent study found that Zika virus may be associated with an autoimmunedisorder that attacks the brain’s myelin, similar to multiple sclerosis. A study publishedon April 13 in The BMJ(formerly the British Medical Journal) , found “severe” brain

damage with a range of abnormalities in 23 babies with microcephaly who were for thefirst time examined using computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging. Theabnormalities ranged from brain calcification, malformation of cortical development,incomplete development of the brain, particularly the cerebellum, ventriculomegaly(abnormal enlargement of the brain cavities) and, finally, delayed myelination. Thesefindings confirm what the director of the National Institute of Allergy and InfectiousDiseases, U.S., Dr. Anthony F auci, said about Zika: “The more and more we learn, themore you get concerned about the scope of what this virus is doing.”

As the NEJM paper notes, besides understanding the entire range of abnormities,concerted efforts can now be directed at quantifying the relative and absolute risk

among infants born to mothers who had the infection during pregnancy. They can see ifother factors like confection with another virus and/or a pre-existing immune responseto another flavivirus are responsible for some babies born to mother infected with Zikavirus developing microcephaly.

Makes awareness easier



Confirming the causal relationship makes it easier to raise awareness both at theclinical and community levels and communicate the risks to women who are pregnantor planning to get pregnant soon. This is all the more important as awareness levels arelow even in the U.S. where the virus is spreading to more States. A poll in March byresearchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts,

found that nearly 25 per cent of 1,275 adults were unaware of the association betweenZika virus and microcephaly and 42 per cent did not know that the virus can betransmitted sexually. And four in 10 mistakenly believe Zika virus infection in women islikely to harm future pregnancies, not knowing that the virus takes just one week toclear from the blood of an infected person.

Since the infection remains asymptomatic in a majority of people and not specific evenwhen present, efforts have to be redoubled to develop diagnostic methods and vaccineseven as measures to intensify mosquito population are undertaken. With Aedesmosquitoes present in the country and the peak mosquito season a few months away,India has much to do to prevent a Zika outbreak.

The waning of the pink tideKeiko Fujimori’s victory in the first round of the presidential poll in Peru and therelegation of leftist candidate Veronika Mendoza to third place means that the former isset to face right- wing candidate Pedro Pablo Kuczynski in the final run-off on June 5.Ms. Fujimori’s father Alberto had ruled Peru in the 1990s, his reign known forrepressive measures against the political opposition. Ms. Fujimori has promised a breakfrom her father’s notorious past while seeking to resusc itate his right-wing populism, ifelected to power to succeed former President Ollanta Humala. The run-off between Ms.Fujimori and Mr. Kuczynski is yet another setback for the left in Latin America after

years of political ascendancy in the 2000s, marking what was termed the “rise of the

pink tide” in the continent. The socialist regime in Venezuela lost a parliamentaryelection against the centre-right opposition; the Peronists led by Cristina Fernández hadto relinquish power to right-wing forces in Argentina last year; and Evo Morales,possibly the most popular Latin American leader, lost a referendum on whether hecould retain power for a fourth term in Bolivia. Meanwhile, impeachment proceedingshave already begun against President Dilma Rousseff in Brazil, following street protestsagainst corruption involving the Workers’ Party -led government.

In the early 2000s, a series of mass mobilisations and upsurges gave rise to either newleftists (the Bolivarian socialists in Venezuela, Ecuador and Bolivia), or socialdemocratic regimes (the Workers’ Party in Brazil) or populist governments (Argentina

under the Kirchners). These were a reaction to a social and economic environmentcontrolled by elites who undertook skewed economic policies, exacerbating economicinequality and poverty. The loss of popularity for the left has country-specific reasons,but the common current has been the inability of regimes to go beyond statism ordependence on welfarism fuelled by natural resource extraction and related commodityproduction. This is especially seen in the difficulty the Bolivarian regime in Venezuelafaces in weaning the country away from its dependence on petroleum extraction, andthe malfeasance in Brazil in the running of its natural resources sector. Demand



shortfalls in the global market have resulted in export downturns and a crisis in the oilsector which in Venezuela have led to macroeconomic problems. The charisma ofleaders such as the late Hugo Chávez and Lula da Silva may have helped their regimesgarner support from varied segments of society, but their successors have been unableto match their popularity or political cunning. In the face of the reverses suffered by the

left-leaning regimes and the growing influence of the centre-right, the former need tomake an honest re-evaluation of the efficacy of their strategies and their record inpower. Any recalibration in their strategy must be based on policies that are neithershaped nor overly dependent on a commodity boom, leave alone individual charisma.

Sloshing in the dugoutCricket and money go together in India now as never before. We can call the gamemocket or croney. Not that other sports, also viewed by hundreds from the stands andby millions on the screen, are austere. They are not, they too need money and arefunded. Commercial endorsements plaster the stands, slice the telecasts of football,hockey and even aquatic tourneys. Money follows them around as well. But to cricket itis glued.

Cricket and money are like bees and honey. With or without out any apologies toShakespeare’s lines in The Tempest , money can say of its life in Indian cricket:

Where the bee sucks, there suck I / In the leg slip’s bell I lie / In winter from a frozencrease / He bowls the ball with total ease / In summer’s dr ought he does the same /For he has me to gild his fame / My lack of shame and disgrace / Glide into his flowingpace / As my boundless appetite / Lifts his over- vaulting height / From his bat’s backI’ll ever fly / To heights un -dreamt of in the sky.

That is money speaking, money in Indian cricket. In cricket, money has found a forcemultiplier. Cricket is its bullion, its mint.

Maharashtra and political play

The sport has long had an association with another ‘M’ as well — Maharashtra. Theknowledgeable will find names missing from the list of Marathi-speaking cricketers thatfollows: beginning with the legendary Palwankar Baloo and D.B. Deodhar to VijayHazare, Vijay Manjrekar, Hemu Adhikari, the Gupte brothers, Chandu Borde, BapuNadkarni, Ajit Wadekar, Dilip Sardesai, Sunil Gavaskar, Eknath Solkar, DilipVengsarkar, Sachin Tendulkar — the list is seamless — Maharashtra has been to

Indian cricket what Dharwad-Hubballi have been to Hindustani music. And Mumbai byitself has been to Indian cricket exactly what it has been to Hindi cinema — its naturalhabitat, its principal home, its gracious host. Its stadiums have been to the willow whatits studios has been to the clapboard.

On that west-facing Sahyadri of cricket has also risen another phenomenon — SharadPawar. Maharashtra’s most powerful Congressman since Yashwantrao Chavan, and theState’s tallest non -Congress politician since the era of Achyut Patwardhan, S.A. Dange,



S.M. Joshi, N.G. Goray, Mohan Dharia, Madhu Dandavate and Madhu Limaye, he isalso the biggest non-playing Maharashtrian in Indian cricket. As president at differenttimes of the Mumbai Cricket Association, the Board of Control for Cricket in India(BCCI), the International Cricket Council, he is Indian cricket’s Emperor. He has madethat g ame an empire, Mumbai its capital. Like a Chandragupta he has ‘maintained’ its

great force of its sportsmen like brave- hearts to ‘resist’ and ‘repulse’ armies that comefrom across its borders on land and sea. Mr. Pawar is also Indian cricket’sVishnugupta, otherwise known as Kautilya or Chanakya. He has not only made cricketimperial but intensely canny. He can write, should he wish to, a cricket equivalent tothe Arthashastra , a Treatise on Self- Interest, and not just that of the empire’saristocracy but of its populace as well, generating an appetite beyond the known scopesof human gastronomy and metabolism. I take my mean cap off to him not merelybecause he has achieved what he has on cricket’s glistening greens but because he hasdone that while also being in charge of our farms’ deeply sharded browns and greys.

It is not quite appreciated as well as it should be that the founder of the NationalistCongress Party is also India’s longest -serving agriculture minister (2004-2014) since hisfellow-Maharashtrian Panjabrao Deshmukh (1952-1962). And it has been a testing,trying stewardship. No agriculture minister, it is said, knew the behaviour of the soils ofIndia as Babu Jagjivan Ram did, no one understood the crops and rivers of India as C.Subramaniam did, and no one followed our farmers’ links with fertiliser and grainmarkets as Balram Jakhar did. But no agriculture minister has had two ‘things’ Mr.Pawar has had: one, the benefit of the most thorough-going and transformational reporton farmers ever written by the M.S. Swaminathan-led National Commission onFarmers. Two, the trauma of seeing, in the years he was agriculture minister, 1,53,795farm suicides. That National Crime Records Bureau figure must be refined to say thatsince Mr. Pawar came to Krishi Bhavan in mid-2004 and left mid- 2014, the suicides “onhis watch” numbered about 1,40,000. If the suicides had to happen they would have

happened irrespective of who the Union agriculture minister was. But Mr. Pawar wasstoic and stoicism is an admirable virtue.

Was he sthitaprajna — unmoved and unmovable — in his other expertise? No, hispassion for cricket or, one might say more accurately, for cricket administration sawhim stay unflaggingly agile. The proud son of Baramati should have, in the normalcourse, gone from being cricket’s non -playing captain to becoming its elder statesman.But the BCCI and cricket’s swanky son, the Indian Premier League (IPL), became somired in charges of corruption and spot-fixing as to make the Supreme Court order aninvestigation into them and thereby bring cricket administrators under a dense fog ofcontention.

Too invested to pull out

Mr. Pawar is not in office now. But neither agriculture nor cricket leave him in peace.As the skies over Maharashtra stay parched, its farms are going through one of theirworst droughts. Famine, like a bird of prey, broods over the dry shards of that State.And the IPL, ‘his’ cricket’s prince, is locked in a conflict with the interest of his ownfarmers. During his recent traversal of the drought-affected districts of India with the



Swaraj Abhiyan, Yogendra Yadav had warned Maharashtra of its impending crisis.Husbandry in parts of the State has ground to a halt. Farms thirst. Turfs guzzle. No onecan envy Mr. Pawar.

The BCCI argues t hat it is not going to hurt the State’s thinned -out water sources, that

it will use recycled sewage water from the race course, not ‘fresh’ water, to host 17 IPLmatches in Maximum City and Pune. It is thanks to a public interest litigation filed byan NGO, Loksatta, that the Bombay High Court demurs and asks in words differentfrom the following construction, but in the same spirit of disbelief: is this the time forthe one commodity that is staggeringly scarce in Maharashtra — water — to be divertedin lakhs of litres to entertain the sport-hit when it is denied to the drought-hit? Whatcode of sport permits its glorification at the price of thirst, hunger, possibly evensuicide?

The issue is not about cricket, the sport. It is about the stakes and investments in the17 matches of the IPL. These are far too big, far too deep, to suffer any risk. An IPL pull-out will hurt money. And money must not be hurt.

Alongside the matches, a far greater match is on: that between the machinations ofmoney and the desiccations of drought. But we cannot blame Cricket Inc. alone. Thecricket-crazy are equally, if not more, to blame. They must have their fun, come raincome sun. The Great Indian Middle Class does not realise that its on-screensportoxication is, in times like these, complicit in a great wrong. This complicity by theurban Indian middle classes in its own exploitation would not be half as gross if it werenot happening in a drought.

An opportunity has come to Mr. Pawar, as comes but rarely to political leaders, to dosomething different, something big. He can show national, not just cricketing

statesmanship, by saying life is greater than sport, greater than money, that cricketdoes not thrive in isolation, that in a choice between watering the IPL and saving theBPL [below-poverty-line people], cricket can be expected to choose aright.

And our only cricket Bharat Ratna, a Member of Parliament as well, Mr. Tendulkar, hasan opportunity now to dazzle the nation by saying cricket is his life but there are livesbe yond his own that are no less important and that no water, ‘fresh’ or recycled fromsewage, must be used by money to spin more money at a time like this. That wouldrecycle a sewage world of opportunisms, greed and worse.

The use, misuse and abuse of water in the Maharashtra IPL matter is not about water.

It even goes beyond money to our priorities as a nation.

All about the Obama Doctrine The first decade and a half of the 21st century has witnessed a fundamental change inIndia-U.S. relations unparalleled in the history of the two democracies. President BillClinton demonstrated a tilt towards India during his second term, and subsequently theGeorge Bush presidency brought about a transformational shift in the relationship.



Relations have been on an upswing ever since, with the Obama presidency proceedingon the same course.

Discerning observers nevertheless see subtle differences in the approach of the Bushand Obama presidencies. Both Presidents have been warm towards India and

appreciative of India’s de mocratic credentials. President Bush, early in his second term,dispelled any notions that the decision to reach out to India had a hidden subtext, viz .strengthening India to function as a counterweight to China. President Barack Obamahas been more circumspect, as his world view includes a more accommodative attitudetowards China.

The difference, according to strategic analysts, lies in their approach. Mr. Bush actedmore on the basis of his instincts — an outstanding example being the manner inwhich he went out of his way to ensure the successful conclusion of the India-U.S. CivilNuclear Deal without seeking any quid pro quo. Analysts argue that Mr. Obama is morea practitioner of realpolitik and tends to see most issues through this prism.

Radical shift in priorities

In the light of this, recent references to an “Obama Doctrine” should be of vital interestto Indian policymakers. The so-called doctrine is embedded in a series of interviews thatMr. Obama gave to Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic magazine. Compiled into an essay,it takes on the character of a doctrine, though the President himself may be chary ofacknowledging it as such.

Mr. Obama is hardly a “Beltway” politician. It was known even before he came toWashington that he held strong views on foreign policy issues. These differed from thoseof the foreign policy establishment in Washington — including of the powerful thinktanks scattered across the city, and forming part of the “revolving door syndrome”familiar to Washington insiders.

That the President, while still being in office, should express his personal opinions inthis manner in a series of interviews intended for publication is a surprise of sorts. Onewould have expected it to form part of his presidential memoirs, but clearly he intendedhis views to become known while still holding office. Hence, its value and the referenceto an “Obama Doctrine”.

Mr. Obama withholds few punches in his interviews. He makes it amply clear that hehas little regard for the Washington-based tribe o f U.S. foreign policy experts (“The

Washington playbook”), and even less for their enduring belief that military force is theanswer to every problem. He evinces little interest in West Asian affairs and in thepolitics of oil unlike his predecessors. He is unduly harsh in his judgement of leaders ofWest Asian countries. On the other hand, he shows somewhat greater interest in the“Pivot to Asia” and the consequences of the rise of China and India in the region. Allthis signifies a radical shift in U.S. foreign policy priorities. It is uncertain whetherpolicy circles in the U.S. have come to terms with the change.



Forsaking old friends

U.S. Presidents normally provide direction — or changes in direction — to U.S. foreignpolicy. The “black hole” and the A chilles heel of the pronouncements that coalesce intothe Obama Doctrine is the near-total distrust or disdain that he displays for long-

established relationships and allies. Added to this is a reluctance to accept his foreignpolicy mistakes, preferring to put the blame on allies and friends.

Some of the harshest criticism is reserved for the leaders of Saudi Arabia withreferences to the West Asian sheikhdoms as “free -riders”. At the same time, he sees anemerging Iran as a bright patch as far as West Asia is concerned. Implicit in this is thatthe President is preparing to jettison Saudi Arabia — despite it having been the U.S.’sstaunchest ally for the past half century — and readying to embrace Iran. Egypt,another long-term U.S. ally, is similarly seen as expendable.

Among other leaders Mr. Obama is contemptuous of is Russia’s Vladimir Putin — perhaps understandable because of events in Ukraine and the West’s debacle inCrimea. What is more surprising are his views on the leaders of France and the UnitedKingdom — especially the latter. This possibly stems from his experience of the Libyanimbroglio, for which he blames French President Nicolas Sarkozy and U.K. PrimeMinister David Cameron. His pungent criticism of Mr. Cameron as a mere tacticianlacking in strategic vision does sound the death knell for the “Special Relationship” thathas been part of U.K.-U.S. entente since the end of the Second World War — unless it isresurrected by another President.

Mr. Obama’s version of the Syrian “chemical weapon crisis” is disarming to say theleast. Most of the world saw the U.S. “retreat” after having drawn a redline against useof chemical weapons by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as exposing the weakness of

the U.S. The Saudis equated the U.S. action to “drawing lines on the sand” as Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud observed. Yet, Mr. Obama projects it as a moment of victory, inhaving avoided the use of excessive force to check Syria.

The impression conveyed is of realpolitik carried to an extreme with the core logic of theObama Doctrine being: that the U.S. no longer needed to engage in geopoliticalcompetition with powers like Russia and China; the collapse of countries like Egypt wasof little consequence to the U.S.; the primary concern was to avoid risking the lives ofU.S. citizens unless the vital interests of the U.S. were directly involved; and to getothers to do the hard work of fighting on issues relating to ensuring a rule-basedinternational order and defeating terrorism.

Unlike the vast majority of the U.S. establishment, Mr. Obama does believe that theU.S. confronts a security deficit or that U.S. credibility will be undermined unless thereis greater investment in military power. On the other hand, he seems to believe that“faced with infinite demands and finite resources” to fulfil its leadership role, it ispreferable to take recourse to the “long game” instead of embarking upon peremptoryaction: “Real power means you can get what you want without having to exert violence”,“American strength abroad derives from its resilience at home.”



Lessons for India

From India’s standpoint, there are several aspects of concern relating to the ObamaDoctrine. India may need to “deep dive” into what exactly the doctrine signifies, at atime when the U.S. is anxious to firmly establish a strategic hand clasp, to “counter

China’s assertiveness in the South and East China Seas”.

India has no conflict of interest as far as the South and East China Seas are concerned.It risks provoking China if it gets more deeply engaged on U.S. insistence. Under theObama Doctrine, the U.S. cannot be expected to come to India’s aid in the event of anIndia-China conflict along the disputed land border or anywhere else.

We can already discern how the doctrine is being played o ut to India’s north -west. TheU.S. has been willing to sell F-16 fighters and attack helicopters to Pakistan, so thatPakistan can fight its battles in Afghanistan and the region — despite India’s concernsabout this move. The U.S. has also been willing to placate Pakistan on the nuclearissue, even implying that Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons programme was possiblya response to India’s Cold Start doctrine.

U.S. Defence Secretary Ashton Carter, during his recent visit, spoke of the strategicconfluence between India and the U.S. as one of the defining moments of the 21stcentury. He also referred to the new Framework for the India-U.S. Defence Relationship(signed in June 2015) as intended to increase strategic cooperation to help safeguardsecurity and stability across the region and around the world.

In the light of the Obama Doctrine, it might, hence, be worthwhile to take a closer lookat such entanglement with the U.S. India must be careful that its approach to China isnot conducted through the prism of U.S. strategic interests. We need an independentpolicy in keeping with our national interests in the region and beyond.

Oceanic opportunitiesFor a region that has been historically seafaring, India in the modern era has beenbafflingly inward-looking. It is therefore welcome to hear Prime Minister Narendra Modisay, as he did at the Maritime India Summit in Mumbai on Thursday, that “themaritime agenda will complement the ambitious infrastructure plan for the hinterlandwhich is going on in paralle l”. India has for long been slow, and ad hoc, in developinginfrastructure to reap the economic opportunity its seaboards naturally provide. Andhaving been Chief Minister of Gujarat, a State that stands out in port development, Mr.

Modi has a keener sense of this untapped potential. As he said in Mumbai, apart fromthe length of the coastline, 7,500 km, “India’s maritime potential also lies in its strategiclocation on all major shipping highways.” There has been an increasing emphasis onmaritime infrastructure, and his government has added weight to it. The ambitiousSagarmala programme intends to promote port-led development, improve the coastaleconomy, modernise ports and integrate them with special economic zones, and createport-based smart cities, industrial parks, warehouses, logistics parks and transportcorridors. India has also begun to collaborate with neighbouring Bangladesh and







We may argue over whether what we have on our hands now is the result ofmismanagement, poor judgment or mala fide conduct, but one thing is clear. If themoney is not retrieved from Mr. Mallya, the loans would have to be written-off, involvinga depletion of our assets for we own the banks. And if the banks are recapitalised viathe Budget, it would be us who will foot the bill for his excesses. Either way, it

underlines the direct bearing upon us of the actions of public sector banks. There is noescape for us from this connection even if we migrate to the newer private ones for ourpersonal banking, for we would continue to own the public banks.

Banks to blame

There is no question that the banks are responsible for the predicament in which theyfind themselves. How is it that several leading nationalised banks have separately lentsuch staggering sums to a dubious client struggling to establish himself in an highlycompetitive industry? There is reason to believe that Mr. Mallya was the beneficiary ofpressure brought to bear upon the banks from the outside. And this could only havecome from politicians who preside over the banking system in a governing capacity. Ifthis is not the case, then we must worry seriously about how individual public officialscan dispense such large sums of public money so freely. Are there no checks andbalances in our public sector banks?

The term crony capitalism is used to describe a situation of private players beingshielded from competition or vaulting over rivals due to the intervention of the rulingclass. This usually takes the form of a relaxation of rules or granting of exclusivelicences. The history of the United States in the 19th century is replete with examples ofthese. But things have improved substantially in that country, and in any case l’affaireMallya is something worse. It is one in which the Indian public stands to lose directly.In the forms of crony capitalism considered above, the loss is indirect, usually in the

form of higher prices. Even in the gigantic market intervention following the recentfinancial crisis in the United States, money had not been channelled to individuals.

Under the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), the government had purchased assetsof struggling banks with a view to ensuring that they did not collapse taking along withthem the rest of the financial system. These assets were disposed of later at a profit bythe government! The U.S. government had acted smartly, while in the Indian case thebanks now find themselves saddled with loans made by them to an individual withnegative net worth. The irony could not have been more stark. The U.S. government hadintervened smartly in a society strongly committed to laissez faire. On the other hand,for a country with “socialist” written into its Constitution, our public banks have

unduly favoured a hereditary businessman without a sound business plan but with lotsof political cronies. Also, the banks had lent to a company that has been in the news fornot having paid its employees for a noticeable period of time. Here, India’s public sectorbanks have acquiesced in the violation of employment rights.

Dealing with the mess



Despite Mr. Mallya ’s boorish style, we must resist the temptation of a tit -for-tatresponse, acting always in our best interest. Things that the Government of India cando would fall in two boxes. The first concerns possible ways to deal with the abscondingdebtor. The second contains measures needed to ensure that public sector banks donot find themselves in a similar situation ever again. On the first, there can be no

question that the retrieval of loans made to Mr. Mallya must be pursued relentlessly. There are no grounds for giving him more time to present himself or to settle for lessthan what he owes the banks. He is perceived as a wilful defaulter and must be givenexemplary treatment. The actions taken so far by the government are pathetic to saythe least. The Finance Minister, under whose watch this has taken place, has not madeany definite statement. He must actually announce a plan of action detailing how heintends to bring the businessman to book.

In the Mundhra Scandal in the 1950s it had come to light that the Life InsuranceCorporation of India had supported an indicted businessman by purchasing shares inhis troubled companies. With advice that retains a freshness today, Feroze Gandhi hadstated, “Parliament must exercise vigilance and control over the bigg est and mostpowerful financial institution it has created, the Life Insurance Corporation of India,whose misapplication of public funds we shall scrutinise today.” Following FerozeGandhi’s intervention, the then Finance Minister T.T. Krishnamachari had to resignand Haridas Mundhra was arrested. Actually, l’affaire Mallya represents somethingmore sinister, for a number of publicly-owned banks were commandeered to favour aprivate party whose dubious reputation was common knowledge. Immediate revocationof the absconding parliamentarian’s passport would be appropriate. After all, it wouldbe fair to say that the ease-of-doing-business, so championed by this government, mustbe balanced by the difficulty of evading the law.

Making the process clear

Now onto the second of the set of actions that may be taken by the government in thiscase. In a plea to the contrary made by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to the SupremeCourt lies an idea with hidden potential. When handing over a list of defaulters of loansfrom banks, the RBI is reported to have requested that the names not be revealed. Asfar as the publicly-owned banks are concerned, this goes against an important principleapplicable to the public sector.

It would be unfortunate if we are to allow a disti nction made between “passive” and“wilful” defaulters to muddy the waters. The only question here is whether fulldisclosure will lead to better outcomes. There is reason to believe that it will. Details of

every loan sanctioned by the nationalised banking sector, including the history of theborrower, the grounds on which viability has been ascertained, the guarantors, thecollateral pledged and the officials involved may be posted on the website of the bankconcerned.

We also need to work towards a re-engineering of procedures. It has been suggestedthat fear of being scrutinised by the office of the Central Vigilance Commissioner haspetrified loan officers in the public sector into inaction. It is of no use having a publicly-



owned banking system that does not extend credit to sound projects on grounds ofretrospective scrutiny. This can be taken care of by moving to a system of whetting loanapplications through committees, thus allowing joint responsibility to come into play.Lack of transparency weakens our public banking sector. In the age of informationtechnology and the Excel spreadsheet, the necessary transparency is literally just a

click away.

Are negative rates the new normal?If it is hard to agree on strategies that are critical for global growth, then at least avoidthe ones that could hurt progress. This seems like a reasonable reading of thedeliberations at the Spring Meetings of the World Bank and the International MonetaryFund last week. Clearly, the earlier impatience to see a return to the robust rates ofgrowth that preceded the 2008 meltdown is gradually giving way to a more soberacceptance of a modest medium- term recovery. China’s slowest rise in GDP since early2009, low global commodity prices, and the uncertainty over Britain’s co ntinuedmembership of the European Union, together seem to contribute to a more cautiousstance. Scepticism over excessive reliance on monetary tools, especially in the backdropof the prolonged low interest rates in the eurozone, is not unfamiliar in these forums.But U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew was in line with the majority when he spokeuneasily about the pursuit of negative nominal interest rates, currently being adoptedby six central banks and 25 per cent of the world economy. The explicit opposition tonegative rates could partly be explained by the exceptional and experimental nature ofthis particular measure — rates of zero per cent and below have been a rarity until veryrecently. Proponents see negative rates as a means to induce consumers to spend moreand banks to lend more, with the potential to spur growth and raise inflationexpectations.

The implications of low or negative returns for individual savings, however, could bemixed. Customers would either have to save more to meet long-term targets or holdcash to avoid its adverse effects, assuming that banks brave themselves to pass on theburden. The negative rates policy has thus come under considerable attack both inGermany and Japan, despite the macroeconomic objectives they were designed torealise. A more serious objection, in view of the sizeable ageing populations in thesesocieties, is the impact on the viability of pensions, life insurance and savings vehicles.German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has gone so far as to blame the rise ofpopulist anti- EU parties for the European Central Bank’s negative rates policy, dubbed“penalty rates” in his country. Growing public anger is also said to limit any room formanoeuvre for further rate cuts by Japan. Curiously, within two months of the hike in

the U.S. in the rate of lending last December, the chair of the Federal Reserve did notrule out a plunge into negative territory. While emphasising the potential to createadditional stimulus in the economy and maintain price stability, the IMF is tentativeabout how long governments may persist with negative rates. Meeting in Shanghaiearlier this year, the Group of 20 countries agreed to refrain from a competitivedevaluation of currencies. It may not be long before negative rates policies, which ineffect weaken currencies, are pushed up the agenda for concerted action.



The question of forgivenessHistory rarely produces moments of epiphany, where politics appears as a creative actof redemption and the future becomes a collective act of healing. Each society carries itswounds like a burden, a perpetual reminder that justice works fragmentarily. Suddenly

out of the crassness, the crudity of everyday politics, comes a moment to treasure. OnMay 18, standing before the House of Commons, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will offer a full apology for theKomagata Maru incident.

The drama of the ritual, the act of owning up to a wrong and voluntarily asking forforgiveness is rare in history. One immediately thinks of Willy Brandt, the West GermanChancellor, kneeling down during his visit to the Warsaw Ghetto and apologising to the

Jews. The act was moving. For once instead of the mere word, the body spoke in utterhumility as Brandt knelt before the monument. It was a sheer act of courage,responsibility and humility, an admission of a politics gone wrong, a statement of acolossal mistake that needed redemption.

Hundred years to atonement

This movement for forgiveness is important. Forgiveness adds a different world to theidea of justice. To the standard legal idea of justice as retaliation, compensation,forgiveness adds the sense of healing, of restoration, of reconciliation. Society faces upto an act of ethical repair and attempts to heal itself. Memory becomes critical herebecause it is memory that keeps scars alive, and memory often waits like a phantomlimb more real than the event itself.

The Komagata Maru incident is over a hundred years old. But like the Jallianwala Baghatrocity, it is a memory that refuses to die easily. It is a journey that remainsperpetually incomplete, recycled in memory as Canada would not allow thehomecoming.

Komagata Maru was a ship hired by Gurdit Singh, a Hong Kong/Singapore-based Sikhbusinessman, a follower of the Ghadar Party, who wanted to circumvent Canadian lawsof immigration. The journey of 376 Indians, 340 of them Sikhs, began from Hong Kong.

They finally reached Vancouver where a new drama of attrition began. British Columbiarefused to let the passengers disembark, while Indians in Canada fought a rearguardstruggle of legal battles and protest meetings to delay the departure. Passengers evenmounted an attack on the police showering them with lumps of coal and bricks.

The ship was forced to return to Calcutta, 19 of the passengers were killed by theBritish and many placed under arrest. Komagata Maru was a symbol of racism, ofexclusionary laws, a protest to highlight the injustice of Canadian laws. When Mr.

Trudeau apologises, he will perform an act of healing where Canada apologises not onlyto India but to its own citizens, many of whom are proud Sikhs. The index of change isnot just the ritual apology but another small fact. The British Columbia Regimentinvolved in the expulsion of the Komagata Maru was commanded between 2011 and2014 by Harjit Sajjan, now Canada’s Minister of National Defence.





score points, but to help create a deeper reflection and reflexivity about the growingimpact of violence in the Indian polity.

First, I would like Narendra Modi to apologise to the Muslim community and to India forthe horror of the 2002 riots. The genocide of 2002 froze Gujarat and India at a point,

and the thaw can only be an ethical one demanding the humility of truth andforgiveness. A lot has been written about the unfinished nature of the 1984 riots inwhich over 5,000 Sikhs lost their lives. I know Manmohan Singh did offer an apology,but the Congress’s behaviour has turned this into an impotent mumbling. In therightness of things, the Gandhi family owes an apology to the Sikhs, something it hasnot had the ethical courage to venture. Third, as an Indian, I think one not only has towithdraw the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act but also apologise to the people ofKashmir and Manipur for the decades of suffering. One must request Irom Sharmila toend her 15-year-long fast demanding the withdrawal of the Act with dignity. There hasbeen enough violence here, and it is time that we as a nation think beyond the egotismand brittleness of the national security state.

Each reader can add to the list and to the possibilities of a new ethical and moralpolitics which requires a Gandhian inventiveness of ritual and politics. What I wish toadd is a caveat. The rituals of apology and the question of justice, reconciliation andethical repair are not easy. They require a rigour and an inventiveness of ethicalthinking which necessitate new experiments with the idea of truth and healing in India.

Mr. Tutu makes this point beautifully and wisely. He talks of the man known as theNazi hunter, Simon Wiesenthal. In his book, The Sunflower: On the Possibilities andLimits of Forgiveness , Wiesenthal spoke of a Nazi soldier who had burnt a group of

Jews to death. As the Nazi lay dying in his deathbed, he confessed and asked forabsolution from Wiesenthal. Wiesenthal found he could not forgive him. In the end, he

asks the reader, “What would you have done?” — and The Sunflower is an anthropologyof various responses.

We need an equivalence of The Sunflower experiment to ask Kashmiri Pandits,Kashmiri Muslims, Manipuris, Dalits, tribals, women what it would take for forgivenessafter an act of atrocity. In fact, each one of us is a potential citizen, as perpetrator,spectator and victim, in that anthology. Is forgiveness and healing possible in thehistory of our lives? Democracy needs to think out the answers.

Trading charges

On February 24, 2016, U.S. President Barack Obama signed the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015, which introduces important measures relating tointellectual property rights (IPR) issues. The focus of the law is to enhance enforcementof IPR over the U.S.’s trading partners. The U.S. already scrutinises developments of IPlaw in its trading partners; this Act will only heighten it. Consequently, the TradeFacilitation Act is b ound to impact India’s ability to develop an IP policy suited to itsown developmental needs



Traditionally, the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which is an agency that ispart of the executive office of the President, has the twin task of negotiating tradeagreements and overseeing enforcement of U.S. trade policy, including IP policy. As partof its duties, the USTR creates an annual list of countries, known as the Special 301list. Countries featured on this list are those that the USTR believes have either national

laws or regulations that detrimentally affect U.S. trade or the rights of IP holders.Essentially, if a trading partner is on this list, the USTR report indicates to it that theU.S. believes that the country is providing inadequate “IPR protection, enforcement, ormarket access for persons relying on intellectual property.”

The USTR also groups these countries in three categories. The most egregious violatorsare designated as Priority Foreign Countries (PFC), serious offenders are listed on thePriority Watch List (PWL), and less serious offenders in the Watch List (WL). Anycountry falling within the PFC or PWL is subject to USTR scrutiny in the form ofinvestigations and possible sanctions under the procedures set out under the TradeAct, 1974. Over the years, the USTR has increased the number of countries that are puton the PWL, but reduced countries designated as PFCs. The Special 301 list hasconsistently featured India, most often as a PWL country, since its institution in 1989.

This has caused some consternation within India, which has been disappointed that itsproactive steps to improve domestic IP protection and engage with the U.S. have beenunsuccessful in placating the U.S.

Complying with benchmarks

Given these conditions, Trade Facilitation Act will increase the level of pressure tocomply with the USTR’s requirement for countries like India that feature on the PWL formore than a year. First, the Act specifically requires the USTR to develop action planswith benchmarks for such countries. The USTR has traditionally developed action plans

in consultation with the country in question. However, under Trade Facilitation Act, theUSTR is not required to consult with the listed country.

“Benchmarks” refers to legislative or ot her institutional action that a sovereign countrylike India will need to establish to facilitate U.S. trade. Notably, the role of USTR isfocussed on U.S. trade. Thus, it is not obliged to take developmental or public healthneeds of the trading partner into account when developing action plans or listingbenchmarks. Instituting benchmarked changes remains the only way to remove acountry from the Special 301 list. A country that refuses to comply with thebenchmarks within a year can face “appropriate action”, which means it could beelevated to the status of a PFC, which in turn will result in further unilateral

investigations followed by punitive trade sanctions. Such trade sanctions can includedenial of preferential duty for exports, which developing countries rely on to exportgoods to the U.S.

Under World Trade Organisation jurisprudence, legality of unilateral actions oversovereign countries remains questionable. Given this, the U.S. tends to stay away fromimposing unilateral sanctions, but tries t o bring about change in a country’s domesticIP law through mechanisms like the Special 301 list.



Second, the Act creates a new position within the office of the USTR titled ‘ChiefInnovation and Intellectual Property Negotiator’ (IP negotiator). The IP negotiator’s roleis to serve as a “vigorous advocate” on behalf of U.S. innovation and IP interests. The IPnegotiator is required to “take appropriate actions to address acts, policies, andpractices of foreign governments that have a significant adverse impact on the value of

U.S. innovation.” Thus, the Trade Facilitation Act clarifies that the IP negotiator’s role isto enforce U.S. priorities in IP more vigorously and to ratchet up the pressure towardsthis cause. With a view to facilitating such unilateral actions, the Act creates a TradeEnforcement Trust Fund for legal actions against foreign countries to ensure “fair andequitable market access for U.S. persons.”

India’s accommodation

Over the years, India has become more transparent, engaged, and even willing toaccommodate U.S. concerns. Critics argue that India’s accommodation of U.S. interests,particularly those of U.S. pharma on issues such as compulsory licensing, isunwarranted. Further, given that India’s position is seemingly in compliance wi th the

Trade-Related Aspects of IPR agreement, scrutiny from the U.S. is difficult to justify.Under U.S. laws though, compliance with WTO obligations is immaterial. Thus, acountry that is compliant with WTO rules can be the subject of investigations if theUSTR believes that U.S. trade is detrimentally affected by that country’s IP laws.

Thus, India’s traditional defence that it is in compliance with WTO obligations haslimited reach. India should be concerned about the heightened pressure that is boundto follow with the passage of the Trade Facilitation Act, especially on issues where itscompliance with its TRIPS obligations is not disputed. As India continues tostrategically engage with the U.S., it is time to develop a coalition of like-mindedcountries to monitor demands for legislative actions that result in WTO-plus standards.

Hotter, longer, deadlier summersAs climate change gathers pace, policy intervention is required across three sectors — health, water and power

India’s romance with seasons h as been well known since the times ofKalidasa’s Ritusamhara . But it is now under strain because of global climate change.

Climate change is expected to cause an increase in the frequency and intensity ofheatwaves. For India, 2015 was the third hottest year on record (since 1901) and the

heat claimed over 2,000 lives. This year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) hasissued warnings for northwest and central India (Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, easternUttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Odisha and Jharkhand) about heatwaves happeningsooner than in previous years. Further, government schools have been shut down inKolkata, parts of West Bengal, Odisha, and Madhya Pradesh on account of heatwaves.

Adverse health outcomes (hospitalisations or death) are a complex interaction offrequency, duration and intensity of a heatwave and population-level factors, which



include acclimatisation to the temperature profile of certain geography, poverty, lack ofshelter, pre-existing disease, age (children or elderly) and access to health facilities. Inaddition to heat stroke, extreme temperatures can exacerbate pre-existingcardiovascular and respiratory illness.

The days ahead

A joint study by the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), IndianInstitute of Management Ahmedabad and Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagarfound that about 345 districts in India (700 million people) are following a trajectorywhere average temperatures are likely to rise more than 2°C by the end of the century.

The same study also finds that over the next three decades, India may experienceincrease in annual mean air temperatures of 1°C-1.5°C and substantial increases innight-time temperatures. Higher night-time temperatures are correlated with increasedincidence of heat-related illness.

Findings from the first Global Climate Change Risk Assessment (a joint study by CEEW,Harvard University, Tsinghua University and the U.K. Foreign and CommonwealthOffice) highlight that hotter summers make it extremely unsafe for citizens, especiallylabourers, to undertake heavy outdoor work. Of course, there remain associatedimpacts such as higher risks of crop failure. Concomitant consequences of farmerfinancial distress, poverty traps and, in extreme cases, suicides cannot be overstated.

Adaptation measures

If hotter, longer and deadlier summers are to be the new normal under a changingclimate, proactive adaptation measures are required. This implies policy interventionand coordination across three sectors — health, water and power.

First, scale up heat-health warning systems (HHWS). At their core, such warningsystems include providing weather forecasts in advance, issuing warnings to people,providing readiness of emergency response systems, and preparing doctors and healthfacilities to handle a sudden influx of patients. Warnings facilitate people in takingappropriate actions against heat-related harm. Though the IMD does issue heatwarnings, often the coordination with emergency response systems and health facilitiesis missing.

Globally, studies show that implementing HHWS results in fewer deaths. The mostquoted example is that of France where 4,400 deaths were avoided due to HHWS during

the 2006 heatwave. Closer home, Ahmedabad, Nagpur and Odisha have madepioneering efforts in this direction. These systems need to be expanded to other citiesacross the country.

Second, expedite the rollout of the National Action Plan on Climate Change and Healththat was launched last year. Preventing temperature-related morbidity and mortalitycould be a key programme under this mission.



Third, ensure an adequate supply of water. Dehydration is a key outcome of heatexposure which can cascade into life-threatening conditions and ultimately death.

Timely access to drinking water can help mitigate this escalation. In areas where heatextremes coincide with water scarcity, the risk of heat-related illness remains highest.Areas like Latur, Osmanabad and Beed, which are already experiencing acute water

shortages, could face large casualties if hit by heatwaves. Water is also required forelectricity production that helps provide access to cooler environments through use offans and air conditioners. Therefore, strategic planning in the water sector is ofparamount importance to protect human lives.

Fourth, provide reliable electricity for adequate duration. Access to cool environmentsremains the mainstay of preventing heat stress. Use of fans, air conditioners orfunctioning of medical centres is contingent upon electricity supply. Further, manycommunities depend on electricity to draw groundwater for drinking. This requiresplanning to meet peak loads in summer, when power outages are most common. Inrural areas, where electricity access is a challenge, supplementing power supply ofprimary health centres with solar-based systems should be undertaken. Chhattisgarh,Maharashtra and Tripura have already deployed such systems.

Finding policy alignment and coordination across these sectors remains a daunting, yetmuch needed exercise. The romance of the seasons may be lost in the years to come.Lives need not be.

One handshake among manyIndia-U.S. defence cooperation has grown enormously in the past decade — but itshould be seen exclusive of India’s outreach to other countries

On the eve of his visit to India earlier this month, U.S. Defence Secretary Ashton Carterindicated that his ambition was to bring the two countries ever closer in the sphere ofdefence cooperation through a “handshake” that was both strategic in its quality andtechnology-driven in its accent.

After his three-day stopover in Goa and New Delhi amidst visible bonhomie with IndianDefence Minister Manohar Parrikar, the mutual proximity of the two countries’militaries appeared greater than ever, and a clear signal of both sides’ cooperative i ntentcame in the form of an announcement that the Logistics Exchange Memorandum ofAgreement (LEMOA) would be signed in the forthcoming weeks or months.

Yet, in the relatively opaque world of government-to-government defence deals, it issometimes what is not said, or not signed, that is the more eloquent elucidation ofwhere this “defining partnership of the 21st century” truly stands.

Long arc of bilateral defence ties

Lest there be any doubt, India-U.S. defence cooperation has witnessed anunprecedented boom for well over a decade now, rising from being “as flat as a chapati”



in 2002, in the words of former U.S. Ambassador to India Robert Blackwill, to thepresent day, with the aggregate worth of defence acquisitions from Washingtonexceeding $10 billion.

Yet if burgeoning trade volumes have historically represented the upside to growing

convergence within bilateral defence ties, then the paucity of actual, production-line-based collaborative initiatives under the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) — which in a hypothetical world would tie in neatly with Prime Minister NarendraModi’s ‘Make in India’ initiative — is a testament to the need for more trust andwillingness to be accommodative towards a partner.

For example, while he was in India last week, Mr. Carter spoke of his desire to advanceconsultations on cooperation over the joint development of aircraft carriers and jetfighter technology. In addition to LEMOA, two “pathfinder projects” were announced, toco-develop a Digital Helmet Mounted Display; and so was a Joint Biological TacticalDetection System.

However, going by the plodding pace of four other such “pathfinder projects” outlinedduring U.S. President Barack Obama’s visit to India in January 2015, it may be unwiseto expect the two announced during Mr. Carter’s visit to result in actual productionkicking off any time in the near future.

Of the initial four pathfinder projects agreements, only two were signed in August 2015,the Next Generation Protective Ensemble (NGPE) protective suit for soldiers confrontedby nuclear, chemical or biological warfare, and the Mobile Electric Hybrid Power Source.

The other two projects, a micro-drone that soldiers could hand-launch for battlefieldsurveillance, and roll-on-roll-off kits for the C-130J Super Hercules transport aircraft,appear to have fallen off the table or at least placed on the shelf for the moment.

While some discussions under DTTI have slowed or stalled owing to Washington’sinability, for a variety of reasons, to meet India’s hopes and expectations for sharingsensitive technologies and others have paused to come to grips with India’s offset rulesunder the latest Defence Procurement Procedure, there appears to be rising frustrationall round at the crawling pace of progress.

Some connected to the defence industry believe this is in part driven by mountinganxiety over the need to institutionalise mechanisms within both governments that willkeep them frequently in contact with each other and firmly fix political and

bureaucratic attention on opportunities for meaningful engagement.

In the U.S. it is manifested in concern over the fate of bilateral defence cooperation withIndia after the presidential election, and this may have been one factor driving the U.S.Department of Def ence’s effort to establish the first ever country -specific unit, the IndiaRapid Reaction Cell, aimed at hastening progress with collaborative defence projects ofco-development and co-production for initiatives such as aircraft carriers and jet fighterengines.



Further signalling the high level of priority accorded to collaborating with New Delhi,the U.S. Congress introduced a resolution last month, the U.S.-India Defence

Technology and Partnership Act, which places India on a par with its NATO allies interms of trade and technology transfer, specifically elevating its status as a defenceexport market.

Nevertheless, if there is one area of cooperation that warrants a relatively sanguineapproach, it is the realm of maritime security cooperation, in which space the Cartervisit saw the announcement of numerous steps forward, including India’s sustainedmulti-year commitment to participating in the RIMPAC multilateral naval exercise; apromise to expeditiously conclude a “white shipping” technical arrangeme nt to improvedata sharing on commercial shipping traffic; and an agreement to commence Navy-to-Navy discussions on submarine safety and anti-submarine warfare.

If India is guided by its “Act East” policy and the U.S. by its “Asia -Pacific rebalance”,then it should hardly be a surprise that both countries converge strongly on thequestion of safeguarding maritime security in the South China Sea.

Indeed, similar to last year, the joint statement by Mr. Carter and Mr. Parrikar this timereaffirmed the commitm ent of both Foggy Bottom and South Block to “ensuring freedomof navigation and overflight throughout the region, including in the South China Sea,”adding that the two nations “vowed their support for a rules -based order and regionalsecurity architecture conducive to peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific and IndianOcean.”

The unspoken C-word

So far as such statements go, the proverbial 500-pound gorilla in the room is the forceposture of China in the region, and more broadly, its presumed intention to seek ever-expanding economic and strategic linkages across the continent, including with Nepal,Bhutan, Bangladesh and Myanmar to India’s northeast; Sri Lanka, Thailand, andMalaysia to India’s southeast; and Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia to India’snorthwest.

In this context, it is significant that after visiting India Mr. Carter’s next stop was in thePhilippines, which not only came on the heels of the U.S. announcing new military aidto the Manila despite protests from Beijing but also included a visit by the DefenceSecretary to the USS John C. Stennis aircraft carrier afloat somewhere in the SouthChina Sea.

Enough ink has been spilled on India’s troubled but largely stable relationship withChina, and also on its strategic compulsions in a post-non-alignment world, so itsuffices to note in the context of Mr. Carter’s visit that any move to draw India into acloser embrace of defence ties with the U.S. to the exclusion of other nations is notlikely to succeed anytime soon.



No analyst in Washington would have missed the significance of the sequential timingof Mr. Parrikar’s visit this week to China, to which nation “India attaches highestpriority,” in his words; nor indeed statements made by Indian officials that in theproposed signing of LEMOA “there is no dilution of India’s position and no militaryalliance” implied.

It is probably a universal truth that not only the U.S. but every other nation seeking topartner with India must appreciate that India may gladly offer a strategic handshake,but it will only be one handshake among many.

Rollback reduxUnion Labour Minister Bandaru Dattatreya has backed off from enforcing new rules torestrict employees from emptying their provident fund accounts before they turn 58

years old. This is the second time in just over a month that the government hasbacktracked on a major policy shift concerning retirement savings in PF accounts.Another U-turn may be called for once the implications of new rules issued by theFinance Ministry to forfeit ‘unclaimed’ deposits in small savings schemes sink in.Earlier, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley withdrew two paragraphs of his Budget with aprovision to tax three-fifths of employee PF accumulations at the time of retirement.

That rollback came within a week, in the face of a widespread political backlash. Therules restricting EPF withdrawals were notified nearly 10 weeks before they were rolledback. Though there were some murmurs of discontent and many rushed to withdrawPF balances from previous jobs, it was only when violent protests rocked Bengaluruthat the Centre changed tack. It first tried to buy peace with a three-month deferral andrelaxations to allow employees access to their entire EPF balance for the marriage ofchildren, the purchase of a house, enrolment in an educational course, and switch to agovernment job. Less than 24 hours later, the rules were simply scrapped. Most of the

protesters in Bengaluru are employed in the textile sector, where India is fast cedingground to Vietnam and Bangladesh; jobs are vulnerable and workers cannot take it forgranted that they will be employed under the same conditions till the age of 58.

The violence may be seen as an act of desperation, and the Centre’s rationale — ensuring people don’t fritter away their PF sa vings during their working life — is good intheory. But it does not take into account the fact that people often withdraw EPFbalances when they change jobs, simply because transfers are not handled smoothly atthe PF office. Moreover, the labour market has undergone a paradigm shift; it is nowcharacterised by greater job mobility, contractualisation and weaker security of tenure.A similar ‘we know what’s best for the people’ strand of thinking was evident in the

Budget proposal to tax EPF savings. The Finance Ministry claimed it was meant tonudge people into buying an annuity with their retirement corpuses rather than blowthem away. The quick rollbacks in the face of protests create an impression that thegovernment hadn’t done its homework in these ca ses. Had it persisted, more peoplemay have preferred informal jobs (without mandatory payroll deductions like EPF), thusdefeating the larger objective of creating quality formal sector jobs, that account for just10 per cent of the workforce. Micromanaging retirement choices for the privileged few is



a waste of time. Redoubling efforts at providing genuine social security for the other 90per cent of the workforce is a far better idea.

Reasons and excuses for violence

The provocation for violence is often very different from the underlying cause. After daysof unrest in Jammu and Kashmir’s Handwara town, in which five civilians died, it nowemerges that the trigger for all the moral outrage and protests — the report of amolestation bid on a young woman by a soldier — may not have had any basis in fact.She submitted before the Chief Judicial Magistrate, Handwara, that she was assaultedby a local youth, and not by any of the Army personnel stationed in Handwara. Thefacts of what actually happened are still contested, but the manner in which therumour of the involvement of an Army man in the attack spread through the townpoints to the widespread distrust of the armed forces in the area. The dismantling offour Army bunkers at the town square was thus a necessary, and welcome, response tobring the situation under control and to restore normalcy in the area. The larger reasonfor the protests was precisely that: the high level of resentment in the town against theobtrusive presence of the Army. Reports, factual or rumoured, of the assault on the

young woman provided a spark to draw attention to what is locally perceived as thelarger problem: the repressive force of the Army against civilians. The deaths of youngpeople in subsequent protests further aggrav ated the local population’s anxiety aboutfailing to keep young men and women out of harm’s way. The dispiriting takeaway isthat if it had not been the assault on the young woman, it would have been some otherissue.

The response from the locals, including government servants, holds out a lesson for theCentre. It is that such incidents will tend to recur as long as a deeper politicalengagement eludes Kashmir. However much the Centre may defend the deployment of

the Army citing strategic reasons, it remains an inescapable fact that its obtrusivepresence adds to the political alienation of the people as well as sporadic human rightsviolations and harm to civilians caught in the crossfire. In fact, Handwara is one of theareas relatively free of militancy, one that witnesses good turnouts in elections. That theArmy demolished four bunkers instead of asking for reinforcements in Handwarafollowing the violence is partly on account of this reading of the situation. Streetprotests, and violence against the armed forces on some emotive issue or the other,have unfortunately become a part of everyday life in Kashmir. Given the persistingmilitant activity in the Valley, reducing the Army presence in any substantive manner isnot an immediate possibility. But steps such as reducing the Army deployment indensely populated areas, and ensuring accountability for the actions of the security

forces, should help keep the fragile peace in the Valley.

The problem of making peaceIn days gone by, the explanations for not having peace between India and Pakistan werefar simpler to analyse, as it was to identify institutions on both sides of the borderwhich were reluctant to engage in any process to overcome issues which have persistedfor seven decades. On the Pakistani side, blame usually lay with the Pakistan



‘Establishment’, a pseudonym for the military and its many institutions, while on theIndian side, arguments ranged from Pakistan’s interference in Indian affairs and thesupport for militancy in India, as understood and articulated by the Indian Foreign andHome Ministries.

Janus-faced army

Many scholars of Pakistan’s military and political process have argued very extensively,and correctly, that the army justified its omnipresence in the country’s politics andmilitary rule over many decades by making the claim that only it could defendPakistan’s geographical and ideological foundations and borders. The ‘threat from India’to undermine Pakistan’s existence has been the main excuse which has given, in thepast, the moral justification (not that it ever needed one, really) for the Pakistan Army toclaim an over- extended role in the country’s domestic and foreign polity. While this

justification from the military has been challenged by scholars and the political class, ithas held sway in the public sphere for some time now. Moreover, there have also beenextensive allegations and claims, as well as evidence, by academics and scholars thatPakistan’s military and its many institutions have also, in the past, been activ e inpromoting non- state actors to carry out insurgency and militancy outside of Pakistan’sgeographical boundaries. Clearly, however one looks at it, for most of the past sevendecades, with Pakistan’s military ruling and governing the country for most of thisperiod, the anti-India position, and hence the absence of peace, from the Pakistani sideat least, has revolved around apportioning blame on the army.

Despite the wide acceptance and prevalence of the argument of holding Pakistan’smilitary responsible for not wanting peace with India, its military leaders have played asurprising, and ambiguous, role in actually promoting peace with India as well. Or so itseems. General Zia-ul-Haq in 1987, at a time of high tension between India and

Pakistan, visited Jaipur to see a Test match between the two countries. (How onemisses those days, certainly not of General Zia’s rule, but of a time when India andPakistan could actually play Test matches against each other in their own countries.)Interestingly, trade between India and Pakistan went up hugely (from the low levels thatexisted then) under General Zia. Again, Pakistan’s next military dictator, who openlyclaimed and took responsibility for the Kargil war of 1999, was talking peace with Indiaonce again by the mid-2000s. Not only did trade soar, people-to-people contactincreased similar to what it was prior to 1965, but most importantly, Test matchesbetween the two countries resumed again. There was even public revelation that theKashmir issue was finally near some form of resolution. The narrative of an anti-IndiaPakistani military was swept aside by such initiatives and measures following the

military’s changing stance after the 9/11 attacks and the new war on Pakistan’swestern borders.

Long shadow of 26/11

The volte-face for General Musharraf, after having started the Kargil war, to makingpeace with India was a result of the changing geopolitics in the region which Pakistanwas drawn into after 2001, a peace process which continued even after President



Musharraf was replaced in September 2008 by a civilian, democratically electedPresident and government in Pakistan. However, all that changed after November 2008when India held Pakistan responsible for instigating and carrying out the Mumbaiattacks, and for protecting many of those who are said to have masterminded theattacks. All possibilities of any peace process came to an end after Mumbai, and if

anything, there was real threat of retaliation by India and an all-out war againstPakistan.

The timing of the Mumbai attacks — November 2008 — offers an interesting juncture inboth the position of the military in Pakistan and the peace process with India. Fromaround May 2007, as General Musharraf’s position weakened in Pakistan, and ascivilian and democratic forces gained greater confidence and strength, the relativeposition of the military in the political arena also weakened considerably. In fact, manyscholars and analysts have argued that the period from around 2007-08 to the end of2014 may have been one where Pakistan’s military was at its weakest in terms ofdetermining the country’s domestic and foreign policies, with democratically electedcivilian governments gaining the upper hand for the first time since the 1950s. Had theMumbai attacks not happened, there was a growing belief that perhaps Pakistan mightbe able to build on peace efforts which were already underway since the mid-2000s,with the military not only relatively weak in the political sphere but also activelyengaged against militants on the western borders and within the country. But Mumbaiput an end to those prospects. Moreover, with Pakistan’s military back in a dominatingposition domestically after the Peshawar school attacks of December 2014, if not a littleearlier, in some ways, though not all, the peace process may be back to an earlierformat.

Change in the script

In the last few months, however, the India-Pakistan peace process has seen someuncharacteristically new aspects compared to the past, some quite bizarre andunexpected. The fact that a pigeon was claimed to be sent as a spying device by thePakistani intelligence agency to India, and that an unmanned boat off the shores ofGujarat was thought to be a terrorist boat by the Indians, suggested a change in tacticsby the Pakistanis. Moreover, the belligerent tone towards Pakistan shown by IndianPrime Minister Narendra Modi for many months after his taking over seemed to havemelted following his unexpected visit to Lahore on Pakistani Prime Minister NawazSharif’s birthday in December 2015. On the Pakistani side, the capture and confessionof an alleged Research and Analysis Wing agent in Balochistan gave ample ‘proof’ to thePakistani authorities who had been looking for such proof that India was actively

engaged in acts of subversion in Pakistan. Yet, the response by Pakistani authorities tohelp with the probe into the attack on the Pathankot airbase and the prompt interactionbetween the two National Security Advisers was also refreshing, given the manner inwhich the two sides have interacted in the past.

Such ambiguous and contradictory behaviour, by both parties, certainly complicatesany evaluation of the peace process between India and Pakistan. Clearly, whatever the



peace process may be between the two countries, it is not business as usual, certainlynot the way it was undertaken in the distant past.

Even though the peace process between India and Pakistan seems to have come to ahalt, and perhaps the usual suspects are to be blamed, one does get a sense that while

there is no real peace between the two countries, the allegations at present are moregesture than substance, meant for domestic constituencies. Perhaps India perceives achange in approach from the Pakistani side — pigeons rather than terrorists — whilePakistan is trying to be more proactive, agreeing to jointly investigating attacks, quiteunheard of in the past. Nevertheless, despite some wishful thinking on the part of thosewho hope for peace between India and Pakistan, one thing that much experience andcountless events between the two countries in the past have shown is that we neverknow what the next surprise is going to be.

Another missed opportunity This week’s meeting between the Indian and Pakistani Foreign Secretaries in Delhiserved as a reality check on the stalemate in the bilateral dialogue. Meeting on thesidelines of the Heart of Asia conference, the two officials failed to find common groundto kickstart the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue process, or even agree on a timetable.Both countries have now officially confirmed that the talks bore no results. InParliament on Thursday, the government referred to the talks that lasted 90 minutes asa “courtesy call”; and Pakistan Foreign Secretary Aizaz Chaudhry said “nobreakthrough” h ad emerged from his meeting with S. Jaishankar. The separatestatements by the two foreign offices listing, point-wise, the issues discussed were anequal indicator of the discord. India raised its concerns about Pathankot, the 26/11investigation, and consular access to alleged spy Kulbhushan Jadhav. Pakistan broughtup alleged Indian interference in Balochistan and its concerns about investigations in

the Samjhauta Express blast. Neither mentioned the other’s concerns, with bothstatements clearly aimed at their respective domestic audiences rather than a bilateraloutreach. Mr. Jaishankar and Mr. Chaudhry may have discussed ways to move thedialogue process forward in a productive way. The only way to do this is to schedulestructured meetings at the secretary level for the next few months, even as the twoNational Security Advisers take up issues related to terrorism in the wake of thePathankot attack. Pakistan has been particularly reluctant for a full-fledged discussionon terrorism, but given that it hosts the SAARC summit this year, it may be willing tobe more flexible in framing the talks agenda.

Despite many setbacks, there have been numerous occasions over the past year to

encourage hope that dialogue will acquire some sort of permanence. To begin with, themeeting in Ufa between the two Prime Ministers that drew up an ambitious road mapfor talks, the subsequent meeting in Paris, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’sunscheduled Christmas Day visit to Lahore surprised each time and pulled ties out of adeep freeze. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj’s December visit to Islamabad,when a new Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue between the Foreign Secretaries wasannounced, as well as the sustained contact between the National Security Advisers,gave an impression of momentum towards a historic summit in November 2016. Mr.



Modi is likely to attend the SAARC summit then. Importantly, Prime Ministers Modi andNawaz Sharif, who have deliberately kept a direct line of conversation alive all thesemonths, have expressed their vision of bilateral ties with clarity. It is now for the twogovernments — which in Pakistan’s case also means the military establishment — towork towards realising that vision. In a world where the U.S. and Cuba have restored

ties, Russia and China have formed a close partnership, and Iran has emerged fromisolation, it is not too much to hope that India and Pakistan can at least discuss keyissues.

Growing cracks in the U.S.-Saudi allianceWhen U.S. President Barack Obama arrived in Riyadh on Wednesday to attend aregional summit of Gulf leaders, he was welcomed by the local governor, not by KingSalman Bin Abd al-Aziz himself. Given that the monarch personally welcomed otherleaders who arrived for the summit, this is a strong indicator of the deep rift in the U.S.-Saudi alliance. The visit was positioned as a major diplomatic outreach to the kingdomby Mr. Obama, perhaps his last as the President, to allay concerns about Washington’sapproach towards Iran and other contentious issues such as the civil war in Syria. Butit turned out to be a low-key affair with both sides holding on to their respectivepositions. This is not the first awkward moment in the over 70-year-old U.S.-Saudialliance. On the face of it, relations are riddled with contradictions. One is a democracythat has even embedded human rights issues into foreign policy actions. The other is aclosed society ruled by a conservative, authoritarian family. But economic and strategicinterests — the U.S.’s dependence on the G ulf for oil, the fight against Sovietcommunism and the war on terror — had helped both countries set aside thesecontradictions and build a strong partnership based on trust. Of late, with the regionwitnessing massive changes, this partnership has come under enormous strain.

Relations turned sour when Washington refused to protect the regime of HosniMubarak, the Egyptian dictator, when he was threatened by mass protests. Themistrust deepened when President Obama declined to bomb Syria. It hit a new lowwhen the Iranian nuclear deal was signed. The Obama administration is againstbombing Bashar al- Assad’s regime because it thinks a collapse of the state in Syriawould help the Islamic State. Likewise, it wants Iran to play a more responsible role inregional politics, especially in stabilising Iraq and defeating the IS in Syria: both arevital for American interests in the region. This marks a clear divergence of interestsbetween the U.S. and its Sunni Gulf allies, who are worried about Iran’s growing sta turein West Asia. Interestingly, Mr. Obama pressed ahead with his policy despite pressurefrom the Gulf. One reason is that the U.S. is no longer dependent on the Gulf for oil,

thanks to its domestic shale boom. Another is the realisation in Washington that itneeds Iran to stabilise the region. That doesn’t mean it is going to abandon Riyadh orembrace Tehran. Both the U.S. and Saudi Arabia still need each other. Despitetensions, U.S. defence sales to the kingdom and other Gulf countries have soared inrecent years. The U.S. is still committed to the security of its Gulf allies. On the otherside, Washington and Tehran do not even have full diplomatic relations. But theunderlying message of Mr. Obama’s policy changes is that it can’t be business as usual for the Saudis. A rebalancing is under way.



On going beyond Bommai The Uttarakhand High Court’s verdict declaring the imposition of President’s Rule in theState as unconstitutional was expected, but the quick stay on its operation granted bythe Supreme Court means that Harish Rawat is once again a “former Chief Minister”

and President’s Rule is back in force. The dismissal of an elected government on the eveof a confidence vote was a drastic measure that no court could have unequivocallyendorsed. The High Court after all was only applying the law laid down intheBommai case in 1994, which made it clear that the only place to ascertain themajority of a government was the floor of the House. In assessing the merits of theCentre’s case for the imposition of President’s Rule, the High Court had to examinethree main contentions. These were the unusual passage of the Appropriation Billthrough a voice vote rather than a division (following which the Bill was not sent forapproval to the Governor), the summary disqualification of nine dissident ruling partylegislators, and a sting video that allegedly caught Mr. Rawat offering inducements towin back the support of dissidents. Serious though these issues are, the UttarakhandHigh Court concluded, and perhaps with some justification, that they did not add up toa breakdown of the constitutional machinery in the State.

While it is impossible to predict what the Supreme Court will make of the High Court’s judgment — the full details of which are not yet available — the controversy inUttarakhand is symptomatic of the kind of problem that requires a judicial fix goingbeyond the rules laid down by the Bommai judgment. Seminal though it was,the Bommai case was essentially about imposing a restraint of gubernatorial discretion

— nay, even machination. By the 1980s, Raj Bhavans had become a stage forheadcounts and horse-trading; some incumbents resorted to questionable means toprevent legitimate attempts to cobble up a majority. The judgment did put an end, or atleast considerably mitigate, this kind of problem. However, those relating to the

application of Article 356 today are somewhat more complex. Chief Ministers cling on toposts even after dissidents have clearly reduced their governments to a minority, andpartisan Speakers manipulate floor tests by a selective application of the anti-defectionlaw. (The BJP is no stranger to this cynical and self-serving game; in 2010, ChiefMinister B.S. Yeddyurappa ‘won’ the floor test in Karnataka after 16 legislators wer esummarily disqualified.) If earlier the problem was that of partisan Governors, theissues that need to be addressed in today’s political context are that of partisanSpeakers and vitiated floor tests. Bommai placed severe limitations, and very rightly inour federal set- up, on the Centre’s discretion to dismiss politically inconvenientgovernments. While keeping the handcuffs that this judgment had introduced in place,what we need are some fetters to keep the ruling party and their friendly Speakers from

making a mockery of floor tests.

Laws that make us humanEarly this month, the Maharashtra State Assembly enacted the Maharashtra Protectionof People from Social Boycott (Prevention, Prohibition and Redressal) Act of 2016. As thetitle suggests, the purpose of this law is to prevent and punish the continuingcommunity- driven practice of social boycotts. The Act provides 15 examples of “social



boycott”, which include obstructing individuals from observing religious practices orcustoms, severing social or commercial ties, causing intra- community “discrimination”,expulsion from the community, and so on. Persons who directly engage in socialboycott, instigate others to do so, or participate in the deliberations of any meetingorganised with the purpose of imposing a boycott may be penalised under the law.

The focus of the Act is clear: it is directed against caste panchayats which oftenfunction as community-based parallel forums of justice, and whose diktats areinvariably directed against recalcitrant individuals who have been deemed to transgressthe bounds of caste or community morality. Interestingly, therefore, the Act specificallypenalises causing discrimination among the members of a community on the basis of“morality, social acceptance, political inclination, [or] sexuality.”

First Act and its fall

Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has correctly called the passage of theAct “historic”. Indeed, the Maharashtra law represents another chapter in a long -standing battle to secure individual freedom from the suffocating grasp of ascriptivecommunities, whether based on caste or religion. For instance, soon afterIndependence, in 1949, the State of Bombay passed a law called the Bombay Preventionof Excommunication Act, which outlawed the practice of excommunication withinreligious communities. The constitutionality of this Act was challenged by the “ D ai ”,or head, of the Dawoodi Bohra community, who argued that by curtailing his powers ofexcommunication, the law interfered with his religious freedom.

In 1962, a divided Supreme Court struck down the Act. The judges in the majority heldthat the practice of excommunication was an essential tool for maintaining communitydiscipline and cohesiveness, and consequently, was protected by Article 26(b) of the

Constitution, which guaranteed to all religious denominations the right to manage theirown affairs in matters of religion.

However, in a powerful dissenting opinion, Chief Justice B.P. Sinha observed that, onthe contrary, the Excommunication Act fulfilled the constitutional mandate by seekingto guarantee “individual freedom to choose one’s way of life and to do away with allthose undue and outmoded interferences with liberty of conscience, faith and belief… itis also aimed at ensuring human dignity”. Specifically linking the prohibition ofexcommunication with the constitutional directive for the abolition of untouchability(under Article 17 of the Constitution), he held that the purpose of the Act was to outlawsuch practices of outcasting and social ostracism, which deprived the individual “of his

human dignity and of his right to follow the dictates of his own conscience”.

The correctness of the majority opinion in the Dawoodi Bohra case has beenquestioned, and a petition to reconsider it has been pending in the Supreme Courtsince 1986. As the difference of opinion among the judges reveals, however, the issue isa fraught one. Undeniably, the Constitution guarantees religious freedom tocommunities, and also guarantees the freedom of association. At the same time,however, the Constitution also recognises that punitive community action can severely



harm individual freedom, dignity, and access to basic public goods. For this reason, itcurtails the power of groups in various ways. Apart from the prohibition ofuntouchability, the Constitution guarantees non- discriminatory access to “shops,public restaurants, hotels, and places of public entertainment” (Article 15(2)). In legallanguage, this is known as the “horizontal application of rights”: that is, the

Constitution grants individuals rights not merely against the State, but also againstother individuals (and groups).

Long struggle

Maharashtra’s social boycott law is best understood as one front in a long struggle toeffectuate the Consti tution’s guarantee against social exclusion, as expressed in Articles15(2) and 17. The history of this struggle did not start with the BombayExcommunication Act. It did not even start with the Constitution. As early as the mid-19th century, intra-community battles over access to public goods under the colonialstate had begun. The historian Anupama Rao records an instance from 1856, where theBombay government denied admission to a Christian Mahar convert into a publicschool on the ground that caste Hind us did not wish to “associate” with a Maharstudent. After sustained protests lasting a few decades, towards the end of the 19thcentury, Dalit students were allowed to attend public schools, but were directed to sitseparately in a verandah outside the classroom. They were also barred from accessingthe common water supply.

The struggle intensified through the course of the early decades of the 20th century andreached its climax in the late 1920s, with B.R. Ambedkar’s famous Mahad satyagrahadirected towards opening up access to community water tanks that had been barred toDalits. Simultaneously, he also launched a movement for entry into public temples,basing his claims on the right to an equal standing within the community. As he

famously argued, “the issue is not entry, but equality.”

It was at the same time that Ambedkar began to conceptualise legal solutions to theproblem of community oppression. In his submissions to the Minorities Committee ofthe Round Table Conference, he identified social boyco tt as “the most formidableweapon in the hands of the orthodox classes with which they beat down any attempt onthe part of the Depressed Classes to undertake any activity if it happens to beunpalatable to them”. He quoted the Starte Committee Report of 1 928, which hadobserved that “[the social] boycott is often planned on such an extensive scale as toinclude the prevention of the Depressed Classes from using the commonly used pathsand the stoppage of sale of the necessaries of life by the village Bania … cases have been

by no means rare where a stringent boycott has been proclaimed simply because aDepressed Class man has put on the sacred thread, has bought a piece of land, has puton good clothes or ornaments, or has carried a marriage procession with thebridegroom on the horse through the public street.” Accordingly, Ambedkar proposedan anti-boycott law which would specifically prohibit the practice of social boycotts.Although the colonial government did not take him up on this, a few of Ambedkar’sproposals found their way into the post-Independence Protection of Civil Rights Act of1955.



Threads of exclusion

The Maharashtra social boycott law, therefore, is an important step in the long-standingstruggle for social inclusion. It is, however, only one step. As Ambedkar recognised,exclusion occurs along multiple axes: through boycott, through stigmatisation, and

through segregation (the case of the school verandah).

In The Untouchables , he wrote about the practice of “territorial segregation and of acordon sanitaire putting the impure people inside a barbed wire into a sort of a cage”.For this reason, as part of his proposed anti-boycott law, Ambedkar also proposed tobring within the definition of boycott, “refus[al] to let or use or occupy any ho use orland, or to deal with, work for hire, or do business with another person, or to render tohim or receive from him any service”. Part of this was covered by Article 15(2) of theConstitution, in its guarantee of access to shops, which was understood by the framersto include non-discriminatory access to services. However, in recent years, religion-driven housing discrimination — which inevitably leads to segregation — has emergedas a serious problem, especially in urban areas.

With its focus on caste-panchayat driven community boycotts, the Maharashtra lawleaves a significant area of discrimination untouched. To address this, a comprehensiveanti-discrimination law is required, on the lines of the Civil Rights enactments in theUnited States and the United Kingdom. For now, however, the Maharashtra law is animportant first step, that carries forward the judicially-aborted goals of the 1949Excommunication Act, and the rarely-used Protection of Civil Rights Act. For this, thegovernment of Devendra Fadnavis must be applauded. The devil, of course, will now liein the implementation.

To Brexit or not to BrexitIt should not have needed a visiting U.S. President to puncture the arguments ofeurosceptic Britons, who believe their country is better off outside the European Union(EU). But so strong is the hold of Britain’s history as an imperial power that theprospect of a destiny inside Europe, that too one driven by a dominant Franco-Germanalliance, is deeply unpalatable to sections of the political class. For all the fury andnoise over the referendum in June, the question whether to stay inside or leave the blochas cast a long and troublesome shadow on a country that joined the EU in 1973 undera Conservative Prime Minister. When the Labour leader Harold Wilson won publicapproval for that step in a 1975 referendum, the hope was that the overwhelmingmandate would be irreversible. With the benefit of hindsight, we know that the debate is

far from over. Years on, Prime Minister David Cameron finds himse lf in Wilson’s shoes.His Conservative backbenchers forced his hand on a U.K. vote on continued EUmembership and prominent Cabinet colleagues are now spearheading the leavecampaign. Now, as in 1975, the main argument against membership is the perceivedloss of national sovereignty. At the heart of the issue is what Brexit could mean for theworkforce. There are over two million EU immigrants working in Britain today, a body ofpeople that not only provides it with critical skills but also contributes to its tax kitty.Could Brexit lead to an exodus among such people? On the other hand, immigration



has become a key element in the eurosceptic armoury, acquiring renewed potencyfollowing the large inflow of refugees from Syria into the EU. The exit camp is exploitingthe cracks in EU policy over their rehabilitation to frontally attack the free movementprinciple underlying the Schengen borderless travel zone.

The objectives of the U.K.’s membership of the EU have always been primarily economicrather than political. It is apparent that these interests are better served if Londonassumes its rightful place at the European high table. Non-EU members Norway andSwitzerland have access to the bloc’s internal market, but no voice in shaping its laws.Such an arrangement may not befit a country with the wealth and influence of Britain.As a result, a measure of euroscepticism has existed side by side with London’s desireto stake out special positions in key areas. This was reflected most recently in thepackage that Mr. Cameron negotiated ahead of the referendum to protect London’sstatus as a financial hub. The exemption from adopting the single currency andparticipation in the Schengen area are the other major opt-outs from common policies.

The champions of Brexit have taken exception to the U.S. President expressing hisopinion on the referendum. But they would surely know that from Washington’sstandpoint the “special relationship” with Britain would carry real meaning only if ittranslates into an effective voic e inside the EU, the world’s largest single trading bloc.

Building on the Paris Agreement The 174 countries and the European Union that signed up to the Paris Climate ChangeAgreement in New York on April 22 have committed themselves to the decision that arange of actions must be undertaken to keep the rise in global average temperature wellbelow 2° Celsius over pre-industrial levels. The debate on climate change shifted afterthe climate summit in Paris in December from whether scientific evidence is strongenough to warrant making aggressive cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, to how this

should be achieved without hurting economic growth in developing countries such asIndia. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change accepts differentiatedresponsibility for developing nations, which are not responsible for the accumulatedstock of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as opposed to rich countries that historicallyhad the benefit of the unfettered use of fossil fuels. What makes carbon emissionsparticularly problematic, however, is that polluting local flows have a global effect overrelatively short periods, and far-flung countries, such as small island nations, suffer theimpact. India’s estimate of its share of global greenhouse gas emissions submitted tothe UN for the Paris treaty is 4.10 per cent, but it faces a double jeopardy: of having toemit large volumes of carbon dioxide to achieve growth, while preparing to adapt to thedestructive effects of intense weather events, such as droughts and floods, linked to

climate change.

After Paris, the challenge before India is to implement its pledge — to sharply cutemissions intensity of GDP by 2020. A small reduction was achieved between 2005 and2010, and the effort now should be to maintain the trend. Energy, transport andinfrastructure are key areas where sound national policies are needed. The doubling ofthe cess on coal in the Budget, and the general policy to keep fuel prices high usingtaxation are welcome, but they must translate into funding for green alternatives. It



should be possible, for instance, to unlock middle class investments in renewableenergy with an effective grid-connected rooftop solar subsidy programme. In theabsence of strong backing from State governments to ensure net metering and transfersubsidies, progress in this area has been slow. New buildings should also be required toconform to energy efficiency codes in all States. The National Electric Mobility Mission

Plan aims to put about seven million electric or hybrid vehicles on the road by 2020,but for this to happen, the creation of charging infrastructure and introduction ofconsumer incentives are vital; greening public transport bus fleets will give the Missiona face. Once the Paris Agreement is ratified, funding for such initiatives should comefrom the wealthy countries, which are required to raise at least $100 billion a year. Thepact requires them to provide even higher levels of assistance. The success of theclimate compact will ultimately depend on whether rich countries, including the U.S. — where a conservative President and Congress could reject it — fund innovation andopen-source their green technologies to developing nations.

First damage, then fix?Public policy needs to figure out the complexities of the polluter pays principle

A highway cutting through Central India’s deep forests and a festival that was heldalong the banks of Delhi’s dying Yamuna river have thrown up related questionspertaining to the environment. In the first case, the “very dense forests”, as per theclassification of the Forest Survey of India, connecting the Kanha and Pench tigerreserves are being cleared for the widening of National Highway 7 (NH7). In the secondcase, a section of the Yamuna floodplain was flattened for an Art of Living-backed WorldCulture Festival. Both incidents involve environmental damage and in both cases thecourt has ordered the respective polluters to pay for environmental degradation. Theglaring question is, do polluters pay so they can pollute further? Do we need to make

distinctions in the way environmental compensation is meted out? What safeguardsshould we put in place to prevent violations of existing laws which get sanitised bycompensation?

Wrong precedents

In the case of NH7, thousands of trees were cut even before forest clearance wasgranted. It is alleged that undue pressure was put on clearing one portion of forest land(a 37-km stretch which is part of the Kanha-Pench tiger landscape) as the rest of thehighway had already been broadened. In the case of the Yamuna floodplains, thefestival was held despite the National Green Tribunal (NGT) finding that clearances were

faulty. In both cases, the activities were eventually condoned under the polluter paysprinciple — while in the first case the National Highways Authority of India was askedto make contributions to the Compensatory Afforestation Fund, in the second the NGTgave its go-ahead to the festival after imposing an initial fine of Rs. 5 crore on the Art ofLiving foundation for damages caused to the plains. What we learn from this is that thepolluter pays principle allows the project to go ahead and, given theillegal/predetermined nature of certain projects, the system in the current form hasaided wrong precedents.



In essence, the polluter pays principle, when combined with a reading of fait accompli(predetermination), creates a complex nexus. In the case of NH7, activists point out thatif the 37-km stretch was not widened, there would have been tailgating and bottleneckformations in the area, what with the rest of the highway broadened already. Whileclearances should have been granted to the whole project instead of through this sort of

pressure, the Art of Living case is even more problematic.

Citizens of the National Capital Region took the World Culture Festival organisers tocourt on their choice of location — acres of the active Yamuna floodplain. The NGTslammed the project, but eventually allowed it with an environmental compensation.

Justice Swatanter Kumar observed that there was fait accompli in this case: severalarrangements had already been made, and much of the set-up was ready at the timethe matter was being heard. In allowing the festival, the court went against the spirit ofits earlier judgment that did not allow any constructions, temporary or permanent, onthe floodplain. There was simply no denying that the agency was paying to pollute inthis case.

This also throws up a related question: on what grounds should there be differentiationbetween public and private bodies for activities that cause environmental degradation?

The environment is understood through the lens of the public trust doctrine whichIndia follows. The environment is a public entity which needs to be safeguarded forfuture generations. If a project causes pollution or environmental degradation, it is to becompensated for. But very broadly, this is usually restricted to activities which are to dowith public interest. A national highway, even if bearing less traffic, is touted to be inpublic interest.

Ecosystem services

Undoubtedly, there is a need to adopt an ecosystem services approach to understanddamage and the cost of the damage to the environment. In the Art of Living case, theNGT is yet to impose final costs on the foundation. Apart from ecological damage or lossof ecosystem services, it is possible to further nuance environmental damage andamount of compensation according to the nature of activity. Should more costs be paidif an activity is only for limited or private gain, say, for instance, a music festival?

The courts stress that one cannot pay for the express purpose of polluting. The polluterpays principle in effect says that if found to be environmentally damaging, theactor/developer needs to compensate people as well as bear costs of environmentalrestoration. In Vellore Citizens Welfare Forum Versus Union of India (1996), the court

found that the “onus of proof” is on the actor or the developer/industrial to show thathis action is environmentally benign. In Research Foundation for Science (18) v Unionof India (2005), the court found that the polluter pays principle means that theproducer of goods and other items should be responsible for the cost of preventing ordealing with any pollution that the process causes. In effect, this also implies that theprinciple also does not mean that the polluter can first pollute and pay for it.



The final problem remains: paying compensation gives some respectability to thepolluter, while damage to the environment may not always get reversed. However, themost insidious scenario is when fait accompli gets tied in with the concept ofcompensation. The idea that nothing can be done to save the ecosystem is questionable.Even more questionable is the idea that paying cash as compensation is acceptable.

Working out a metrics for measuring environmental damage and how it can becompensated will be of great importance and is urgent today.

It is a challenge to public policy to test not just the limits of payments but also thethresholds the environment or a particular ecosystem can handle before gettingdegraded.

Water will continue to be scarce A focus on minor irrigation projects and drip irrigation could go along way in copingwith frequent crises

The incidence of drought can no longer be considered a rare event. Climate change hasquickened the occurrence of extreme events such as drought, floods and cyclones indifferent parts of India. It is alarming that the frequency and severity of such extremeevents has increased in recent decades. India has experienced numerous drought yearsin the past, but the frequent recurrence after 1988 — in 1999, 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014and 2015 — is highly worrisome. It causes enormous hardships to resource-poorfarmers, who are forced to fend themselves through sale of assets and migration tourban areas. Though the impact of drought varies across regions, it invariably affectshuman, livestock and natural resources.

Severe drought conditions are being experienced in some parts of the country this yearas well. The Union government has already declared that the country is grappling withsevere drought conditions which are estimated to have affected a sizeable population,nearly 330 million people. More than 50 per cent of the districts across the countryhave had rainfall deficit, many in tandem with high temperatures of above 45 degreesCelsius. The most severely affected States include Maharashtra, Karnataka, Jharkhandand Telangana. Given the current scenario, the government has initiated drought reliefprogrammes to compensate crop losses, encourage judicious use of groundwater, andhas sent ‘water trains’ to the highly water -scarce areas besides extending financial helpto the States to cope with the emerging crisis.

As much as these relief measures are essential to ease the drinking water shortage, the

problem is deep-rooted and has important implications for the agricultural sector thatprovides livelihood to almost 75 per cent of the population directly and indirectly.Drought conditions would severely affect the production and the productivity of keycrops viz. wheat and rice, which contribute substantially to India’s food basket. In asituation of a continuous decline in the level of water tables and low capacity of waterreservoirs, irrigation would contribute little to help in the drought conditions.

Scaling up irrigated area



Government statistics have hardly shown any increase in the total net irrigated area,which has been hovering around 63 million hectares and constitutes only 45 per cent ofthe total area sown in the country. Some improvement in irrigation intensity has takenplace in Assam, Jammu and Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in recent years.But it appears to be insignificant in view of a massive increase in real public investment

in major, medium and minor irrigation from Rs .235 billion in 2004-05 to Rs. 309billion in 2013-14. While the capital expenditure in major projects increased by 3.5times, the investment in minor irrigation increased by 2.5 times only. A virtuallystagnancy in irrigated area — especially of the area under canal irrigation — raisesconcerns about the efficiency of the ongoing investments and the quantum ofinvestment that is further required to scale up area under irrigation.

A study carried out by International Food Policy Research Institute shows a sharp dropin the marginal returns from additional public investment in major and mediumirrigation from 1.41 per cent during the nineties to 0.12 per cent when expenditureincurred during the 2000s is also considered. Evidence also shows that the ratio ofirrigation potential created from public expenditure is higher for minor irrigationprojects than medium and large irrigation projects. Unfortunately, minor irrigationprojects have received only scant attention from policymakers over time. Minorirrigation structures play a significant role in recharging of wells, drought mitigationand flood control.

Long-term remedial options

While the India Meteorological Department has forecast above average rainfall duringthe upcoming South-West monsoon and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley expressedconfidence that agriculture would withstand the ongoing drought, the situation calls forlong-term solutions. Increased water conservation and promoting cultivation of less

water-intensive crops can go a long way towards coping with the crisis. The otherremedial option could be to adopt drought-resistant crop varieties as has been done insome parts of Odisha for paddy/rice through the help of the International Rice ResearchInstitute. This can maintain productivity and income of the farmers and also ensureprice stability to the consumers. It is important for the government to sustain anincreased investment in irrigation but at the same time gear up towards fastercompletion of the ongoing projects.

Micro irrigation system comprising drip and sprinkler irrigation has greater potential toimprove water use efficiency in agriculture. Despite various promotional effortsundertaken by State governments, their level of adoption and spatial spread has

remained low. Studies show that micro irrigation system helps save water, reduce costof cultivation and improve crop yield. Various studies showed that the net return perinch of water supplied through drip irrigation was 60-80 per cent higher than that ofconventional irrigation system. However, among others, high initial capital cost,suitability of designs to different soil conditions, problems in receiving subsidy andsmall holdings are reportedly affecting the adoption of this technology. Subsidy beingan important factor influencing adoption decision of farmers, delay in disbursement



and appropriation by better-off farmers seems to have affected the vast majority ofresource-poor small and marginal farmers in accessing this technology.

The Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana is a good policy initiative that wouldaccelerate public investment in both micro and macro irrigation. During the recently

organised India Water Week, 2016, India has also partnered with Israel, a water-scarcecountry, to learn and adopt innovative strategies to harness rainwater. Small vegetable-growing farmers near Solan, Himachal Pradesh, have long adopted Israel’s water -savingtechnology through the assistance of the Mother Dairy retail chain that procures theirfresh produce. It is an opportune time to scale up technology adoption.

Finally, the shortage of drinking water can be addressed through promotingconservation and generating awareness among people to use the scarce resource withutmost care. Media reports indicate that the funds allocated by the Centre for drinkingwater projects have remained underutilised in many of the States hit by water scarcity.

The States must act responsibly and gear up to come out of the current situation ofwater crisis.

A desperate situation The pendency of cases in India’s overburdened and understaffed judiciary is welldocumented. The emotional appeal made by Chief Justice T.S. Thakur on Sunday in thepresence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has added a sense of poignancy and urgencyto the issue. The numbers are startling: against a perceived requirement of about50,000 judges, the country has a judicial strength of a mere 18,000, while more thanthree crore cases are pending in various courts. In the Supreme Court, the currentpendency is 60,260 for a Bench consisting of 31 judges. As many as 434 posts of HighCourt judges are vacant, while a docket burden of 38.68 lakh cases is stretchingavailable infrastructure and resources. The problem, however, is not new, and thecurrent crisis has been bearing down on the judiciary for some years now. Occasionalobservations made by the superior judiciary on the alarming state of affairs, be it aspart of court proceedings or at formal functions where Law Ministers and judgescongregate, elicit some sympathetic noises or ad hoc responses. But substantive andconcrete measures to resolve the twin problems of mounting arrears and chronicshortage of judicial resources are not forthcoming. Thus, the sense of frustrationpalpable in the appeal by the Chief Justice is entirely understandable.

The litigation over the National Judicial Appointments Commission, which ended withthe Supreme Court striking down both a constitutional amendment and legislation to

establish the body, may have delayed some appointments. But with no changeenvisaged in the memorandum of procedure for fresh appointments to the superiorcourts, neither the government nor the Collegium should be bogged down anymore bydifferences, if any, over individual recommendations. However, the Chief Justice wasnot merely drawing attention to delays on the part of the executive in clearingappointments to the higher judiciary; he was also hinting at the absence of anysignificant initiative to increase the strength of the subordinate judiciary and the lack ofempathy for poor litigants and undertrial prisoners, who suffer the most because of



judicial delay. The situation demands an ambitious infusion of manpower and financialresources, for which even State governments will have to contribute immensely. It issaid that a modern society would ideally need 50 judges per million population.However, the Law Commission, in its 245th report two years ago, had pointed to theimpracticability of using the number of judges per million population (the official figure

for India in 2013 was 16.8) as a criterion to assess the required judicial strength.Instead, it had suggested a ‘rate of disposal’ method by which the number of judgesrequired at each level to dispose of a particular number of cases could be computedbased on analysis. The Centre and the judiciary should collaborate on finding practicalsolutions: appointing more judges, including retired judges as ad hoc judicial officers,based on periodic needs assessments, increasing their retirement age, and deploying

judicial resources efficiently.

Apathy towards antiquitiesWith poor documentation of existing and stolen artefacts, outdated laws, andunqualified investigative agencies, India’s record in preserving its past is deplorable

The Indian gover nment’s response in the Kohinoor case has exposed its insensateignorance. It not only got the facts wrong, but appeared embarrassingly out of depth inunderstanding restitution of antiquities. Given the poor track record in restitution, itseems unlikely that India will get the Kohinoor back. But the greater worry is its apathytowards antiquities. While countries such as Italy have not only successfully pursuedstolen artefacts abroad but also effectively protected them locally, India, which isequally archaeologically rich and a victim of illicit trading, is far from it.

Studies have exhaustively documented the origins of the Kohinoor diamond in India, itscomplicated trail, and its eventual placement in the British royal crown. History doesnot leave to doubt that Lord Dalhousie forcefully acquired it from the young kingDuleep Singh in 1849 when the East India Company annexed Punjab. Dalhousiecompelled Singh to gift the diamond to Prince Albert and Queen Victoria as a “memorialof conquest”. However, later, as historian Danielle Kinsey’s research would show, Singhunsuccessfully demanded the return of the diamond.

Kohinoor was not the most spectacular stone in the Indian royal treasuries. Prof. Kinseyobserved that Singh’s treasury, along with the Kohino or, had the Darya-i-Noor, whichwas far more lustrous. But Lord Dalhousie knew the symbolic importance of theKohinoor diamond and wanted it to be part of the Queen’s jewels. Prince Albert, equallyaware of the lore, publicised its history and the Indian legends associated with it.

A puzzling stance

The historical and cultural significance of the Kohinoor, as in all other cases ofantiquities, is what propels India’s demand for its return. The U.K. government hasconsistently refused to acknowledge this. Th is is expected, but the Indian government’sposition has been puzzling.



Till the 1980s, India did not ask for the return of the Kohinoor diamond. By 2000 itchanged its position and tried to “satisfactorily resolve” the issue. However, in 2010,after U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron visited India, it again changed its stand. To aquestion raised in Parliament in August 2010, the government categorically stated thatKohinoor was not covered “under the UNESCO’s Convention 1972 [sic] dealing with the

restitut ion of cultural property”, and hence the question of recovery “does not arise”.

The 1970 UNESCO Convention prohibits illicit trading and transfer of ownership ofcultural properties including antiquities. However, it does not cover any recovery claimsof antiquities either smuggled or exported before 1970. This instantly puts a significantnumber of antiquities lost by colonised countries beyond any hope of return.

The government’s statement that the UNESCO Convention does not cover Kohinoor mayappear legally right, but its belief that the year 1970 is ironclad is short-sighted. Byconceding so, it also misses out the cultural, political and ethical dimensions ofrestitution.

Historian Elazar Barakan demonstrated in his insightful writings that restitution is nota legal category but a cultural concept which defines international morality. Loot andplunder may have been a practice in earlier times, but not anymore. It was 1815 thatwas the turning point, he wrote, when European powers agreed that the plundering ofnational art was “immoral and illegal”. However, this agreement was limited toEuropean countries, while the colonies were merrily plundered. When the colonisedcountries became independent, they rightfully demanded the return of looted artefacts.

As Prof. Barakan remarked: “The need for restitution to past victims has become amajor part of national politics and international diplomacy.” It has become a way ofcorrecting historical injustices. The Indian government, taking cues from such

arguments, should build a mature understanding of restitution rather than hastily draftmyopic responses.

Whenever countries of origin demand the return of their stolen antiquities, museumsand Western experts have refused. They have repeatedly derided that antiquities are notsafe in the countries of origin. These specious arguments can be rejected. However, thefact remains that antiquities are not adequately cared for in India.

Information on theft

To start with, simple things, such as an integrated database of existing and stolen

artefacts, hardly exist. Providing sufficient information regarding theft cases has been astruggle. For instance, to a question raised in Parliament in 2010 about the number ofantiquities stolen, the government provided a list of 13 thefts that occurred between2007 and 2010. This list did not include that of Subhash Kapoor, an internationalantiquities dealer currently in prison for his alleged involvement in the theft of 18 idolsfrom Tamil Nadu. The number of thefts reported also appears too few to be true.



Compare this with the accomplishment of the cultural heritage squad of Carabinieri,the Italian armed police force. It has built an impressive database of about 1.1 millionmissing artefacts. Set up in 1969, the Carabinieri is the most acclaimed police force inprotecting antiquities. The officers are well-trained in art history, international law, andinvestigative techniques. In the last 45 years, the force has recovered more than

8,00,000 stolen artefacts within the country. The squad is also known for its aggressivepursuit of restitution cases.

Indian investigative agencies pale in comparison. At the national level, the CentralBureau of Investigation handles antiquities theft as a part of its special crimes division.

The division also handles cases of economic offences as well as those relating to dowrydeaths, murders, and so on. It has not built the capacity to deal with stolen antiquities.A few State governments have special wings as part of their police force, but these arealso understaffed and unqualified.

National laws have not helped the cause either. The Antiquities and Art Treasures Act,1972, mandates compulsory registration of antiquities. However, the process is socumbersome that not many antiquities are registered. There is also fear thatregistration would attract unnecessary government attention, and prevent the legitimatetransfer of the objects. As a result, a large number of private collectors do not registerantiquities in their possession. The Act, which is meant to deter thefts, is outdated andhas to be amended. Though the Justice Mukul Mudgal committee submitted a reportrecommending changes in 2011, the government is yet to take action.

The state of India’s museums is another sad story. The Comptroller and AuditorGeneral of India’s Performance Audit of Preservation and Conservation of Monumentsand Antiquities in 2013 had scathing remarks about the country’s poor acquisition,documentation and conservation systems. A government initiative to document

antiquities in its collection has also not progressed well. In 2007, the Ministry ofCulture launched the National Mission on Monuments and Antiquities to completedocumentation of about 70,00,000 antiquities. Until 2014, it had documented only8,00,000 artefact s. The audit also raised serious concerns about the “discrepancies inthe number of antiquities reportedly available in museums” including the NationalMuseum in Delhi.

If the government is serious about the future of Indian antiquities, it has to, withoutdelay, overhaul woefully inadequate institutions and improve legal measures and ill-prepared investigative agencies.

A drought of action India has a lasting infrastructure of public support that can, in principle, be expanded in drought years to provide relief. But business as usualseems to be the motto

Droughts in India used to be times of frantic relief activity. Large-scale public workswere organised, often employing more than 1,00,000 workers in a single district. Food



distribution was arranged for destitute persons who were unable to work. Arrangementswere also made for debt relief, cattle camps, water supply and more. The drought reliefsystem was best developed in the western States of Maharashtra, Gujarat andRajasthan, but the basic framework was much the same elsewhere even if itsimplementation often fell short.

This year, nothing like the same sense of urgency can be observed, despite 256 districtsbeing declared drought- affected. To some extent, of course, people’s ability to withstanddrought on their own has increased: incomes have risen, the rural economy is morediversified, and water supply facilities have improved. Also, a semblance of socialsecurity system has emerged in rural India, with permanent income support measuressuch as the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme(MGNREGS), the Public Distribution System (PDS), midday meals and social securitypensions. This also reduces people’s dependence on special relief measures in drought

years.

None of this, however, obviates the need for active intervention in a drought situation.Despite rapid economic growth and some entitlements, the rural poor in India continueto live in conditions of appalling deprivation and insecurity. And in some respects,notably water scarcity, the impact of drought may be worse than before. Recent reportsfrom Bundelkhand and elsewhere confirm that without emergency support, droughtcontinues to plunge millions of people into intolerable hardship.

To some extent, the nature of the required interventions has changed. The simplest wayof preventing starvation in a drought situation today is to intensify the permanentincome support measures mentioned earlier, for instance by expanding employmentunder MGNREGS, providing special food rations under the PDS, and arranging forimproved school meals. That may not be enough, but it would be a good start.

The MGNREGS funds crunch

There are, however, no sign of this happening. According to official data, the MGNREGSgenerated 230 crore person-days of work in 2015-16. This essentially restoredMGNREGS employment generation to the level it had reached before crashing to 166crore person-days in 2014-15, when a new government took charge at the Centre.However, the Finance Minister had not provided for this recovery. The result was amountain of arrears at the end of 2015-16 — more than Rs.12,000 crore. Yet theFinance Minister continued the unspoken policy (initiated by the previous government)of keeping the MGNREGS budget more or less constant in money terms year after year.

If last year’s employment level is to be maintained this year, the Central governmentwould need to spend at least Rs. 50,000 crore, rising to more than Rs. 60,000 crore ifarrears are to be cleared — a legal obligation since MGNREGS workers have a right topayment within 15 days. Yet the allocation for MGNREGS in this year’s Budget is onlyRs. 38,500 crore. Unless the Central government accepts the need for a large injectionof funds, MGNREGS employment is all set to contract again, or wage payments will bepostponed — both would be a disaster in a drought year as well as a violation ofpeople’s entitlements under the law.



Slipping up on food security

It is arguable that the PDS is even more important than MGNREGS as a tool of droughtrelief. Monthly food rations under the PDS are more regular and predictable thanMGNREGS work. They also cover a much larger fraction of the rural population — 75

per cent under the National Food Security Act (NFSA). A well-managed PDS is a majorsafeguard against hunger and starvation.

It is no accident that the worst reports of food deprivation come from Uttar Pradesh,which is nowhere near implementing the NFSA. No Indian State has more to gain thanU.P. from the NFSA. Before the Act came into force, barely one-fourth of the ruralpopulation in U.P. benefited from the PDS under the “below poverty line” (BPL) category.

The rest received nothing as the “above poverty line” (APL) quota was routinely sold inthe open market by corrupt middlemen. Further, even BPL cards were often in thewrong hands. The NFSA is a chance for the government of U.P. to clean up this messand cover 80 per cent of the rural population under an improved PDS, as many of thepoorer States have already done to a large extent.

Unfortunately, recent reports on the status of the NFSA in U.P. are most alarming.Rapid investigations conducted recently in Moradabad, Rae Bareli and Lucknowdistricts (the last one just 23 km from the State Assembly) all came to the sameconclusion: NFSA ration cards are yet to be distributed, many people are not evenaware of the Act, and the same flawed system continues much as before. So much forChief Minister Akhilesh Yadav’s upbeat statement (made twice, on record, on April 7,2016) that “we have implemented the Right to Food Act”. One wonders whether heknows that elections are coming up next year in U.P., and whether he thinks that thisis the way to win them. Opposition parties, it seems, are equally blind to the situation.

In other States, the status of the NFSA varies a great deal, from dismal (e.g. inRajasthan) to reasonably promising (in many of the eastern States). Alas, thesedevelopments are receiving very little attention. Few issues are more important at thistime than the successful roll-out of the NFSA, yet it seems to be off the Centralgovernment’s radar. The Finance Minister’s recent Budget speech, for instance, did notmake a single reference to it, or for that matter to nutrition in general. In fact, theCentral government (led by the Prime Minister’s Office) is making things worse bypushing for Aadhaar-based biometric authentication of PDS beneficiaries. This whollyinappropriate technology has already caused havoc in Rajasthan, and is all set todisrupt the PDS across the country if the Central government has its way.

For the first time, India has a lasting infrastructure of public support that can, inprinciple, be expanded in drought years to prevent hunger and starvation. Business asusual, however, seems to be the motto. The price is paid by millions of people who arenot just exposed to intense hardship but also losing valuable human and physicalcapital, condemning them to further poverty in the future.

The curious case of Mr. Isa’s visa



The decision to revoke the visa issued to Chinese dissident Uyghur leader Dolkun Isahas averted a bigger diplomatic face-off with Beijing. It has also put an uncomfortablespotlight on the Central government’s handling of such a sensitive issue. There is, first,the question of how Mr. Isa’s application slipped through the cracks of India’s muchvaunted ‘e -visa’ system. If, indeed, as the government now claims, the visa approval was

inadvertent, then it must be investigated how the system did not flag an applicationfrom a person with a Red Notice from Interpol. Second, the episode exposes a failure ofcoordination between the External Affairs and Home Ministries and the intelligenceagencies, which failed to detect and vet applications of all those seeking to attend ahigh-profile conference in Dharamsala, with participants representing Taiwan and the

Tibet and Uyghur regions. While India prides itself on support to groups fighting forfreedom of expression around the world, it also has a stringent system of scrutiny forthose entering the country. On the other hand, if, as sources in the government werequoted widely as saying, the visa decision was deliberate and meant to be a response toChina blocking a proposed United Nations ban on Masood Azhar, then that too must beexplained. Was the decision mean t to indicate a shift in India’s China policy, as well asin its security policy on Interpol notices? If so, were all concerned government agenciesinformed of the shift in policy? Equally, if the decision to grant the visa to Mr. Isa andhis colleagues of the World Uyghur Congress was a carefully deliberated decision, whatprompted the move to revoke it? It has been suggested that the revocation came inresponse to China’s outraged response. Given the alarm domestically and from Beijingover, for diverse reasons, the issue of the visa and its revocation, the government mustface these and other uncomfortable questions.

There is a larger principle, however, that the government appears to be in danger ofignoring. In its efforts at the United Nations to ratify a Comprehensive Convention onInternational Terrorism, India has often made the case that it refuses, on principle, toencourage separatism or interfere in other countries’ internal matters. This is part of

the country’s larger case that all charges of t errorism must be treated equally, thatthere can be no distinction between “good” and “bad” terrorists. Delhi may well protestChina’s cover to terrorists based in Pakistan, such as Hafiz Saeed and Masood Azhar.But it must think carefully before adopting the path that China or Pakistan have. Itsmoral positions on terrorism, and its refusal to bend its principles regardless ofprovocations from repeated terror attacks, have benefited its global outreach on crucialissues, including security. To lose this w ould be a huge setback. An “eye for an eye”, “titfor tat” policy in this regard is unlikely to bring India the justice it demands, however

justified that demand is.

The Malegaon reminderOn September 8, 2006, three bombs shattered the calm in Malegaon town on theoccasion of Shab-e-Baraat, a day when believers are out and about late in the evening.A mosque was attacked, and the intent was immediately clear: to create inter-community tension. The Maharashtra Anti-Terrorism Squad arrested a group of Muslimmen from Malegaon and Mumbai. This week, all nine accused have been acquitted by aspecial MCOCA court, which said there was not sufficient ground to proceed againstthem. It is, at one level, evidence of the balance of justice weighing in on the side of the





In 2005, two different business groups forayed into new ventures. One into commercialaviation, the other into gas exploration. Both announced their entry in a grandiosemanner — one with India’s largest order of Airbus fleet, the other with India’s largest

discovery of gas reserves. They had both borrowed Rs.6,300 crore each in five yearssince their launch. Both business bets went awry. The airline shut down after raking updues of over Rs.9,000 crore to banks. The energy business is still functioning, with duesof Rs.19,700 crore. The airline is Kingfisher Airlines and the energy business is GujaratState Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) and its foray into the Krishna-Godavari (KG) basin.Kingfisher Airlines and its promoter Vijay Mallya are rightfully scorned at, deservedlystripped of their assets and reputation and justifiably vilified. Shouldn’t GSPC besubject to similar scrutiny?

In an earlier article (“The new KG scam”, April 18), I had outlined the contours of amassiv e fraud in the disguise of a business bet. Let’s be clear — businesses can take

risks and can fail. Certainly, public sector businesses fail more often. But the GSPCsaga is not a mere case of a business bet turning sour. To recap, in June 2005, thenGujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi made a grandiose — more grandiose even by hisstandards of bombast — statement of India’s largest gas discovery in the KG basinmade by GSPC. By 2010, GSPC admitted that there was no or very little gas in the KGbasin. It would have been prudent then for any business, even a public sectorundertaking (PSU), to cut down on its investments and recoup any losses. Instead,GSPC went on a massive borrowing spree, despite its admission that there was no gasto be found in the KG basin.



The bars in the chart show annual gas reserves of GSPC from 2005 to 2015, asestimated by the globally renowned reservoir appraiser, Gaffney, Cline & Associates,and disclosed in GSPC’s annual reports. Notice how since 2005, the estimated reserveshave been decreasing rapidly every year. The dotted line on the same chart showsGSPC’s loans from banks and financial institutions, for its gas exploration activities.

See how that line has increased from zero to nearly Rs.20,000 crore in this time period.When the company’s own estimates of its gas reserves in KG basin have been comingdown sharply, how was GSPC allowed to borrow so much money every single year?Where did this money come from? And what was it used for?

A bewildering balance sheet

A consortium of nearly 15 PSU banks lent about Rs.20,000 crore to GSPC over the past15 years. These banks include the State Bank of India, Vijaya Bank, Union Bank ofIndia, Bank of India and so on. According to the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG)report of 2015, the interest costs on these loans alone are Rs.1,800 crore per year.However, GSPC’s net income before interest in 2015 was only Rs.80 crore. Whichmeans it does not have enough money to pay the interest on its borrowings. So,technically, isn’t GSPC in solvent? Should it not be declared as a defaulter by thesebanks? A current Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) served as adirector on the board of GSPC between 2006 and 2013 and even chaired its auditcommittee which typically approves such borrowings. Perhaps the RBI can ask thesebanks what the status of these loans to GSPC are, similar to how it has questionedother loans to other companies.

If there was no gas to be found, then what was all this borrowed money used for? Typically when businesses borrow for new projects or expansion, they tend to hire moreworkers, build more factories etc. However, GSPC’s wage bill was constant in this time

period, indicating that the company did not hire more employees. However, a categorycalled “Other expenses” saw a jump from Rs.16 crore in 2006 to Rs.500 crore in 2013.What these “other expenses” entailed is perhaps best left to one’s imagination.

GSPC’s loans and advances to its subsidiary companies ballooned from Rs.18 crore in2005 to Rs.2,000 crore in 2015 — it has various subsidiaries including joint ventureswith the Adani Group. It also spent nearly Rs.2,000 crore in buying equipment andfixed assets such as oil rigs. One such vendor that was contracted to supply oil rigs toGSPC was a company called Tuff Drilling. Drilling in the KG basin has provedextraordinarily tough but this delightfully named company has sailed easily. TuffDrilling was only incorporated in 2006 after Mr. Modi’s boast. By all accounts, its

promoter had an apparel business. It received an order in 2010 from GSPC worthseveral hundred crores of rupees to supply sophisticated deep water platform rigs forgas extraction in the KG basin. Recall, this was after the realisation that there was noor very little gas to explore in t he KG basin. Tuff Drilling’s promoter is also alleged tohave been an active supporter of the Vibrant Gujarat investment summits. Suffice tosay that Tuff Drilling could not handle the transition from garments to gas and is nowbankrupt.



All of this information has been put together through forensic analysis from varioussources of financial reports of the company, CAG and documents filed with variousregulators in India and abroad. It is abundantly evident that the squandering ofRs.20,000 crore of loans from banks is not a simple case of a business bet going awry.Neither is this political vendetta.

Apologists for GSPC can couch this misadventure in technical terms of the complexityof the exploration business or cite examples of other PSUs or private companies thathave similarly failed in these energy quests. That is not the point here. That there is adamning CAG report of GSPC malfunctioning is a fact. That GSPC borrowed recklesslyfrom PSU banks is indisputable. That the KG basin gas exploration mission was a merealibi for such borrowing is blatantly obvious from this analysis. That there are bignames involved is well known. Key officials have got lucrative post-GSPC posts. Thenisn’t the right next step a deeper, independent judicial inquiry into the sordidpolitically-masterminded GSPC KG basin saga?

Jairam Ramesh is a Congress Rajya Sabha MP.

Fed affords RBI wiggle room The U.S. Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged for a third straight meeting,citing a moderation in economic growth in the world’s largest economy. The FederalOpen Market Committee will next meet on June 14, and with Wednesday’s decision ithas provided policymakers at the Reserve Bank of India with just a little more elbowroom when they decide on monetary action at their June 7 sitting. The U.S. is thelargest market for Indian exporters, and some of the economic indicators spotlighted bythe Fed will help them gauge the strength of demand for their goods and services. Theseinclude a distinct softening of fixed investment by U.S. businesses, and slower growthin household spending despite strong job gains and ‘high’ consumer sentiment. Withglobal trade sluggish and China’s economic reset still roiling sentiment in commoditiesworldwide, the data from the U.S. merit a close watch. Signs from corporate America inthe form of earnings have also offered little cause for cheer in recent days, with a slew oftechnology majors, including Apple Inc., Google’s parent Alphabet Inc. and MicrosoftCorp., reporting disappointing numbers. For its part, the FOMC asserted that it expectseconomic conditions to “evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases” inthe benchmark interest rate and reiterated that its policy stance remainsaccommodative. Interestingly, one of its 10 members cast a vote of dissent byrecommending that the target range for the federal funds rate be raised by one quarterof a percentage point. But overall, just four months since the Fed initiated the process

of normalising interest rates, triggering concerns about possible capital outflows fromemerging markets including India, the tone and tenor of its policy communicationssuggest that interest rate increases are going to be fewer than expected before.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has surprised Asian markets by not adding to itsstimulus programme amid continuing signs that the world’s third largest economy isstruggling to escape deflation. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts to reinvigorate the

Japanese economy through a combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus have had



less than the desired impact, with the gross domestic product shrinking in the lastquarter of 2015. The International Monetary Fund, which earlier this month pared itsforecast for global growth, cited Japan as a key factor and cut its growth forecast for thecountry for 2016 and predicted a likely contraction for its economy in 2017. Clearly,from the perspective of striking a balance between supporting domestic growth and

attracting adequate capital flows, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan and his fellowpolicymakers still have their task cut out. While in its statement the Fed dropped forthe first time this year a reference to “risks” in the context of the global economy, theRBI must use the next five weeks to gauge the strength of the headwinds and, ifdomestic factors too warrant, be ready to provide policy accommodation to help bolsterIndia’s economic recovery.

A misguided surrender

In a clear and misguided surrender to Patidar agitators demanding reservations in jobsand education, the Gujarat government has announced a 10 per cent quota for theeconomically backward among upper castes. Those with an annual family income ofless than Rs.6 lakh will be eligible. This proposed quota is in addition to the existing 49per cent reservations for the Other Backward Classes and SC/STs, and an ordinance isto be promulgated to this effect. The Patidars constitute a crucial vote base for theruling Bharatiya Janata Party, and the quota signals the political failure of the variouscarrot-and-stick measures attempted by the State government to get on top of their longagitation. Last year, Rajasthan passed a Bill providing 14 per cent reservations to theeconomically backward, in a move to appease upper castes. Neither legislation is likelyto pass judicial scrutiny. In Indra Sawhney v. Union of India,the Supreme Court hadlimited the total quota to 50 per cent, a figure both States intend to exceed. Tamil Nadu

is an exception as a constitutional amendment was passed in 1994 to allow the State tocontinue to set the limit for reservation at 69 per cent. A series of judgments haveestablished that economic criteria alone cannot be taken as determinants ofbackwardness.

Notably, the demand for reservations by the largely prosperous Patidars has little to dowith their present socio-economic status. Their agitation, like the one waged by Jats,has been directed more at the reducing socio- economic “gap” between them and theOBCs. Communities that identified themselves with the upper strata of society areincreasingly seeking “backward” status for a variety of reasons. There is a shift in theaspirations for traditionally landed and business communities, as their young seek

better education and white-collar jobs. Besides, following the implementation of theMandal Commission’s recommendations, OBC leaders have asserted themselveselectorally and forged formidable political alliances. It is the change in the balance ofsocio-economic power that has lent popular support to agitations by the middle castesall over the country; new politicians on the block, such as Hardik Patel, who hasresisted all attempts at being co-opted by the BJP, have emerged from this socialchurning. At one level, this adds some weight to the theory that the reservation policyhas helped not only to uplift the socially underprivileged and the historically backward



but also to reduce caste inequities. But by trying to buy peace on the street with animpulsive decision, the Gujarat government has exposed its weakness in the face of thePatidar agitation. If the policy of reservations must be revisited, then the way to do thisis by calling for a review of the list of OBCs and restructuring the creamy layer ofexclusion to benefit the really deserving.

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