AqueductFriday, March 30, 2012

• Betting Information• Picks Panel• Dave Litfin'sExpert Analysis

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Aqueduct Betting InformationFriday, March 30, 2012

Best Bets: T J's Stormy Wit (3RD Race), Cat in the Forest (6TH Race)Horses listed in Post Position order

6 Furlongs. 4YO & Up. Clm 15000B Purse: $33,000Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 (1-3), Daily Double

RACE 1Probable Post:

12:50 EDT DRF Picks: 4-6-7 Beyer Edge: 4-6-7

Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers

1 15/1 Pin Number L Carr D 120 Englehart C 0-59-692 5/1 More Than a Reason L Camacho S Jr5 115 Jacobson D 69-71-61

3 10/1 Metaurus L Velasquez C 120 Gullo G 67-71-674 3/1 Raynick's Jet L Ortiz I Jr 120 Quick P 74-76-805 6/1 Fulton Street L Decarlo C P 120 Kimmel J 73-64-686 5/2 Have You Ever L Castro E 120 Rice L 80-61-827 7/2 Tazered L Cohen D 120 Jacobson D 69-68-84

1 Mile. 3YO & Up. F & M. Md 16000 Purse: $30,000Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 (2-4) / Pick 4 (.50) (2-5), Daily Double

RACE 2Probable Post:

1:22 EDT DRF Picks: 2-6-3 Beyer Edge: 2-4-3

Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers

1 15/1 Chubbalita's Joy L Silvera R 116 Quiles J 17-0-92 2/1 Daddy Can ÷/b-on Lopez C C 116 Good J 41-x-x3 7/2 Candelabra L Decarlo C P 116 Weaver G 0-28-304 6/1 Rum Till I Die L Ortiz I Jr 116 Persaud R 37-35-215 10/1 Sweetest Side L Davis J 116 Hooper J 18-x-x6 5/2 Royal Suspicion L Montalvo C 116 Ryerson J 22-40-247 50/1 A Grand n' More L Rivera G7 116 Chin P 0-0-0

8 12/1 Fall Into Faith L Smith A E 123 Araya R 6-26-29

6 Furlongs. 3YO. Fillies. OC50k/SALExacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 (3-5), Daily Double

RACE 3Probable Post:

1:52 EDT DRF Picks: 3-4-1 Beyer Edge: 3-4-1

Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers

1 6/1 Blushing Martha L Alvarado J 118 Reed E 59-71-532 10/1 Hard Mystery L Castro E 120 Weaver G 31-69-603 1/1 T J's Stormy Wit L Lopez C C 120 Levine B 75-59-x4 2/1 McCarren Park L Velasquez C 118 Asmussen S 69-49-745 8/1 Get Er Up L Ortiz I Jr 118 Romans D 61-60-61

6 Furlongs. 3YO. Fillies. Md 60000(60-50) Purse: $40,000Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Pick 3 (4-6), Pick 6 (4-9) / Daily Double

RACE 4Probable Post:

2:22 EDT DRF Picks: 3-2-4 Beyer Edge: 3-5-2 Live Longshot: 4

Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers

1 5/2 Prettypriceygirl ÷ Alvarado J 120 Reed E x-x-x2 2/1 Really Bullish L Decarlo C P 120 Perkins B Jr 49-51-343 8/5 Brilliant Autumn L Davis J 118 McLaughlin K 52-52-704 8/1 Tessa B L Ortiz I Jr 118 Farro P 40-x-x5 12/1 Concept L Silvera R 118 Peebles M 57-47-49

6 Furlongs. 3YO & Up. F & M. New York-bred. Alw 52000N1XExacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 (5-7), Grand Slam (5-8) / Daily Double

RACE 5Probable Post:

2:52 EDT DRF Picks: 5-8-2 Beyer Edge: 8-7-2

Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers

1 12/1 Princess Reyana L Camacho S Jr5 111 Contessa G 50-48-51

2 6/1 Sammzilla L Castro E 122 Ryan D 58-45-583 5/1 Lenders Way L Lopez C C 116 Ryerson J 57-56-314 30/1 Blue Sixty Four L Garcia W7 115 O'Brien L 24-38-45

5 5/2 Easy Ending L Ortiz J7 115 Rodriguez R 11-64-69

6 12/1 My Jopia L Ortiz I Jr 116 Schettino D 40-51-317 8/1 Auric Girl L Cohen D 122 Englehart C 58-50-588 2/1 Gambling Geraldine L Velasquez C 122 Levine B 60-68-53

6 Furlongs. 4YO & Up. OC 25k/N1X Purse: $62,000Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 (6-8) / $150k

Guaranteed Pick 4 (.50) (6-9), Daily Double

RACE 6Probable Post:

3:22 EDT

DRF Picks: 6-1-7 Beyer Edge: 6-3-7 Live Longshot: 1

Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers

1 12/1 Mandated Bliss L Lopez C C 118 Levine B 62-88-702 10/1 Vee's Accolade L Castro E 118 Terranova J II 81-63-723 7/2 Won Fast Bullet L Alvarado J 118 Dutrow R Jr 86-86-844 15/1 Percussion Studart M 120 Dunham B 75-74-665 6/1 Premium Wine L Ortiz J7 111 Rodriguez R 80-84-52

6 8/5 Cat in the Forest L Cohen D 123 Jacobson D 94-91-947 3/1 Obviously Tuesday L Ortiz I Jr 120 Violette R Jr 87-78-81

1 1/16 Miles. Turf. 3YO & Up. Clm 25000N2L Purse: $34,000Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Pick 3 (7-9), Daily Double

RACE 7Probable Post:

3:52 EDT DRF Picks: 7-5-2 Beyer Edge: 7-5-12

Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers

1 30/1 Flatout Royal L Curatolo R 114 Stoklosa R 56-38-292 6/1 Cat Sweep L Castro E 121 Terranova J II 67-51-723 10/1 Alvito L Cohen D 121 Jacobson D 64-58-514 20/1 Raffie's Choice L Montalvo C 121 Ryerson J 49-45-435 3/1 Living Right L Luzzi M J 121 Parisella J 27-55-716 12/1 Patent Pending Tom L Silvera R 121 Fisher L 45-47-517 8/5 Captain Canuck L Ortiz I Jr 121 Levine B 70-80-848 6/1 Atitlan L Velasquez C 121 Quick P 62-61-619 30/1 Fu Pegs Baby L Smith A E 121 Romans D 24-47-52

10 15/1 Classic R and B L Lopez C C 114 Gullo G 55-56-4611-AE 8/1 Chardsey L Velasquez C 121 Englehart C 51-56-5512-AE 5/1 City Strut L Alvarado J 121 Schettino D 72-67-6413-AE 30/1 Out of Your Mind L Ortiz I Jr 121 Sciacca G 42-17-4314-AE 30/1 The Tapinator L Camacho S Jr5 109 Contessa G 14-41-46

15-AE 10/1 L. C. Sleepy ÷ Alvarado J 121 Contessa G 53-66-7316-AE 8/1 Crea's Law L Curatolo R 121 O'Brien L 49-64-52

6 Furlongs. 3YO. Fillies. OC 75k/N1X Purse: $62,000Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10), Daily Double

RACE 8Probable Post:

4:22 EDT DRF Picks: 9-1-6 Beyer Edge: 9-8-1

Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers

1 5/2 True Feelings L Lopez C C 118 Dutrow A 70-55-722 12/1 Double the Energy L Luzzi M J 118 Salzman J Jr 61-67-663 10/1 Marvelous Margaret L Curatolo R 118 Martin C 71-59-424 8/1 Born Bullish L/b-off Ortiz I Jr 118 Terranova J II 50-61-685 20/1 Select Cat L Castro E 118 Kenneally E 55-43-656 6/1 More Than Minted L Velasquez C 118 Pletcher T 72-46-647 15/1 Ode to Sami L Camacho S Jr5 117 Contessa G 65-62-63

8 8/1 Union Victory L Cohen D 118 Levine B 62-74-639 2/1 Sacred Success L Alvarado J 122 Dutrow R Jr 83-77-71

1 1/16 Miles. Turf. 3YO & Up. Md 25000 Purse: $32,000Exacta, Trifecta, Super (.10)

RACE 9Probable Post:

4:52 EDT DRF Picks: 12-7-2 Beyer Edge: 13-12-7

Prg.# ML Horse Med/EqChg Jockey Wgt Trainer Last 3 Beyers

2 6/1 Ambit L Studart M 116 Contessa G 20-54-463 10/1 Carolina Chant L Lezcano A 123 Persaud R 27-39-x4 12/1 Seawalker L Carr D 116 Martin C 34-17-265 5/1 Quartermain L Montalvo C 116 Hertler J 34-0-486 7/2 Matt and Jesse L Alvarado J 116 Schettino D 56-31-x7 2/1 Win for the Zipper L Camacho S Jr5 111 Bond H 21-31-47

8 20/1 Forty Rock L Ortiz I Jr 116 Barker E 22-14-x9 30/1 Pop's Dolly L Hole T M 123 Matties G 10-17-x

10 50/1 Crescent Moon Dr L Di Fiore M10 113 Sciacca G 16-23-21

1 6/1 Silver Skates L Espinoza J L 123 Chatterpaul N 21-34-4511-AE 3/1 Man in Brown Suit L Castro E 116 Kenneally E 40-64-3012-AE 5/2 Adios Nardo L Cohen D 116 Jacobson D 59-42-3613-AE 7/2 Solid d'Oro L/b-on Cohen D 123 Parisella J 41-40-521A-AE 6/1 Leroidessioux L Espinoza J L 123 Chatterpaul N 50-54-x

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Picks PanelConsensus Totals Based on 5 points for First (7 for Best Bet), 2 for 2nd,1 for 3rd. Best Bet in Bold Type.

Dave Litfin HANDICAP HERMISTM SWEEPTM CONSENSUS48-15(36) Kenny Peck Chuck Kuehhas

1Raynick's JetMore Than a ReasonHave You Ever

Raynick's JetFulton StreetTazered

TazeredRaynick's JetHave You Ever

Have You EverRaynick's JetTazered

Raynick's JetHave You EverTazered

1477

2Daddy CanRoyal SuspicionRum Till I Die

Daddy CanRoyal SuspicionRum Till I Die

Royal SuspicionDaddy CanCandelabra

Daddy CanRoyal SuspicionCandelabra

Daddy CanRoyal SuspicionCandelabra

19112

3T J's Stormy WitMcCarren ParkBlushing Martha

T J's Stormy WitMcCarren ParkGet Er Up

T J's Stormy WitHard MysteryBlushing Martha

T J's Stormy WitMcCarren ParkBlushing Martha

T J's Stormy WitMcCarren ParkBlushing Martha

2463

4Brilliant AutumnTessa BPrettypriceygirl

Really BullishBrilliant AutumnConcept

Brilliant AutumnReally BullishTessa B

Brilliant AutumnReally BullishPrettypriceygirl

Brilliant AutumnReally BullishTessa B

1793

5Easy EndingGambling GeraldineSammzilla

Gambling GeraldineSammzillaEasy Ending

Easy EndingMy JopiaGambling Geraldine

Gambling GeraldineEasy EndingLenders Way

Easy EndingGambling GeraldineSammzilla

15133

6Cat in the ForestObviously TuesdayWon Fast Bullet

Cat in the ForestObviously TuesdayMandated Bliss

Mandated BlissPremium WineCat in the Forest

Cat in the ForestObviously TuesdayWon Fast Bullet

Cat in the ForestMandated BlissObviously Tuesday

1666

7Living RightCaptain CanuckAtitlan

Captain CanuckCity StrutAtitlan

Cat SweepLiving RightCity Strut

Captain CanuckLiving RightCity Strut

Captain CanuckLiving RightCat Sweep

1295

8True FeelingsSacred SuccessMore Than Minted

Sacred SuccessOde to SamiTrue Feelings

More Than MintedTrue FeelingsSacred Success

Sacred SuccessTrue FeelingsMore Than Minted

Sacred SuccessTrue FeelingsMore Than Minted

13107

9Adios NardoAmbitMatt and Jesse

Adios NardoLeroidessiouxWin for the Zipper

Win for the ZipperPop's DollySilver Skates

Win for the ZipperAdios NardoMan in Brown Suit

Adios NardoWin for the ZipperAmbit

12112

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Expert AnalysisBy Dave Litfin

BEST BET: T J's Stormy Wit (3rd race)

First Race

1. Raynick's Jet 2. More Than a Reason 3. Have You Ever

RAYNICK'S JET is doubled in price off $7,500 claim St. Patrick's Day, but had tough wide trip that day and is fast enough based on typical figures in 75-80 range; perfect fit toconditions, with last win coming Sept. 30 cutoff date. MORE THAN A REASON isn't usually thought of as a sprinter, but 80-start veteran actually tops lineup in wins & earnings atsix furlongs; beaten less than a length for second behind runaway winner off a freshening. HAVE YOU EVER and TAZERED (4th start in 20 days) appear destined for enervatingpace duel; the latter needed almost 27 seconds for his final quarter six days ago.

Second Race

1. Daddy Can 2. Royal Suspicion 3. Rum Till I Die

DADDY CAN didn't do much running when last of seven in Feb. 1 debut, but the race produced a pair of next-out winners, and her 41 Beyer is best dirt number any of these fillieshave mustered; gets the Lasix & blinkers makeover for good stretchout trainer. ROYAL SUSPICION is the only other entrant to have run a 40 on dirt; middle moved into slow pacebefore giving way latest. RUM TILL I DIE was along for second at 39-1 seventh attempt on inner dirt.

Third Race

1. T J's Stormy Wit 2. McCarren Park 3. Blushing Martha

T J'S STORMY WIT was claimed from each of first two outs at Santa Anita; sharp maiden graduate brings hefty dose of speed to New York for connections that win regularly withSoCal invaders. MCCARREN PARK returned quick dividends winning off a claim first try on inner dirt, but two subsequent starts weren't as good; lone entrant to have run on themain, and it was a win, albeit in mud. BLUSHING MARTHA returned from seven-week freshening to edge McCarren Park for third with new top Beyer Feb. 17; may rebound afterflat third behind GET ER UP as the choice three weeks later.

Fourth Race

1. Brilliant Autumn 2. Tessa B 3. Prettypriceygirl

BRILLIANT AUTUMN has had six weeks off since chasing 46.36 split that was fastest half-mile of the day by nearly a full second; special-weight dropdown led after 7fs on mainlast fall. TESSA B is a strong trainer pattern match to Union Victory (see 8th), a filly Patty Farro claimed off Linda Rice first out and won with two weeks later for MAT Stables(also with a switch to Ortiz); taken hold of at start, backstretch and turn in debut. PRETTYPRICEYGIRL is a half-sister to three multiple winners of over $100,000; may have tippedhand with black-type workout Feb. 23.

Fifth Race

1. Easy Ending 2. Gambling Geraldine 3. Sammzilla

EASY ENDING was basically eased at 6-5 in second route try, but has been freshened and won big sprinting on main track last fall first out since vanned off eight months earlier;good five-furlong work Mar. 15 for profitable turnback trainer. GAMBLING GERALDINE has been toiling in this N1x condition for over a year now, with latest yet another lossas the chalk; could sit a favorable trip if top pick is hounded early by MY JOPIA - a maiden winner on the main last fall, and working well for first start since sloppy East View.SAMMZILLA was all over the track when up close early, four wide dropping back turn and inside late rallying for second over 3-for-52 AURIC GIRL in recent comeback; first timeshe's had two races this closely spaced since maiden win last July.

Sixth Race

1. Cat in the Forest 2. Obviously Tuesday 3. Won Fast Bullet

CAT IN THE FOREST will have to dig deep making fifth start in five weeks (including cross-country ship) while toting 123 pounds, but is otherwise hard to fault after hanging upfigs of 91-94-91-94 locally; three wide against grain of inside speed track opening day on main. OBVIOUSLY TUESDAY won two of three vs. New York-breds after being madeover into a dirt sprinter with blinkers on; likely to contest early issue with MANDATED BLISS, who was 3 for 3 on dirt before hiccup in California finale. WON FAST BULLETwas up against it when Quick Money shook loose through easy first quarter in 23.88 seconds last out; favored seven of nine starts including big win with J. Alvarado up two back.

Seventh Race

1. Living Right 2. Captain Canuck 3. Atitlan

LIVING RIGHT hasn't been out for eight weeks since two no-show efforts on the inner dirt, which is roughly same layoff stablemate Sunny Desert exhibited leading to 15-lengthwin Sunday; finished well for second twice on Big A turf, impeded stretch the other time. CAPTAIN CANUCK hasn't been on turf since debut two years ago vs. Beau Choix, whohas since developed into a graded stakes horse; returnee kept tough company in Canada after that. ATITLAN was stuck in posts 10 & 11 two prior starts on this course, and was wideearly (showing improved speed) from post 9 in muddy winter-meet finale.

Eighth Race

1. True Feelings 2. Sacred Success 3. More Than Minted

TRUE FEELINGS was slammed at the break, then steadied on the turn behind a rival in distress when along for second in first race since the Spinaway; even so, she received aBeyer nearly as good as Schuylerville placing, and there is plenty of pace to set things up in return to New York. SACRED SUCCESS made short work of statebred maiden andfirst-level allowance fillies with clear leads at odds-on; outside draw stepping up to tougher assignment vs. several with high-octane gas, among them SELECT CAT and UNION

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VICTORY, who dueled each other into defeat at Parx recently. MORE THAN MINTED wired debut last May despite being unruly pre-race; back to dirt after trying polytrack andturf.

Ninth Race

1. Adios Nardo 2. Ambit 3. Matt and Jesse

ADIOS NARDO improved when stretched out on short rest second out, and moved forward again when run down by favored C. Clement-trained firster Virgin Colony first time onturf; up from Tampa Bay off a private purchase. AMBIT was sensibly put away for the winter after failing to pick up his feet on inner Jan. 1; steady development numbers-wise inthree turf tries last fall, climaxed by wide trip on this course, plenty of speed to run at. MATT AND JESSE chased 8-5 repeater Quiet Man to stretch with blinkers on second out;improved workout Mar. 8. WIN FOR THE ZIPPER was beaten 1 1/2 lengths for 3rd on Big A turf last fall; drops, in light.