IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report

IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportWGI, WGII, WGIII, Synthesis Report

2013/2014 Chris Field

Co-chair, WGII

EMISSIONSand Land-use Change

IMPACTS

Warming over the past century

Based on WGII Figure SPM 4

ARE WIDESPREAD

OBSERVED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

AND CONSEQUENTIAL

Wheat Soy Rice Maize

CROP TYPE

-6

-4

-2

0

2

90th Percentile

75th Percentile

Median

25th Percentile

10th PercentileYIEL

D IM

PACT

(% C

hang

e pe

r Dec

ade)

WGII Figure SPM 2

AROUND THE WORLD

VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE

IN DIFFERENT WAYS

VULNERABLE AND EXPOSED

PEOPLE, SOCIETIES, AND ECOSYSTEMS AROUND THE WORLD

ALREADY OCCURRINGADAPTATION IS

ALREADY OCCURRINGADAPTATION IS

Adaptation is already occurring

• Disaster Risk Management

• Basic Public Health

• Livelihood Diversification

THE LIKELIHOOD OF

INCREASING MAGNITUDESOF WARMING INCREASE

SEVERE AND PERVASIVE IMPACTS

Warming over the 21st century

Based on WGII Figure SPM 4

Warming over the 21st century

1901-2012

End of 21st century

Based on WGII Figure SPM 4

Warming over the 21st century

End of 21st century

Based on WGII Figure 22-1

End of 21st century

1901-2012

2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089

20

40

60

80

100

PERC

ENTA

GE O

FYI

ELD

PROJ

ECTI

ONS

02090-2109

0 – -5%-5 – -10%-10 – -25%-25 – -50%-50 – -100%

50 – 100%25 – 50%10 – 25%5 – 10%0 – 5%

Range of Yield Change

Increasein Yield

Decreasein Yield

Risk Level withCurrent Adaptation

Risk LevelVeryLow Med

VeryHigh

4°C

2°C

Present

Long Term(2080-2100)

Near Term (2030-2040)

Assessing risk

Potential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce Risk

Risk Level withHigh Adaptation

Africa

HEALTH

PresentNear-term

2°C world, 21004°C world, 2100

WATER

Compounded Stress on Water Resources

FOOD

Reduced Crop Productivityand Livelihood and Food Security

Vector- and Water-Borne Diseases

EFFECTIVE CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSESA MORE VIBRANT WORLD

SOCIOECONOMICPROCESSESSocioeconomic

Pathways

Adaptation and Mitigation

Actions

Governance

CLIMATE

NaturalVariability

AnthropogenicClimate Change

RISKHazards

Exposure

Vulnerability

IMPACTS

EMISSIONSand Land-use Change

AnthropogenicClimate Change

AnthropogenicClimate Change

• Mitigation

Vulnerability

Exposure

Vulnerability & Exposure• Vulnerability & exposure reduction• Low-regrets strategies & actions• Addressing multidimensional

inequalities

Risk

Risk• Risk assessment• Iterative risk management• Risk perception

SocioeconomicPathways

Socioeconomic pathways• Diverse values & objectives• Climate resilient pathways• Transformation

Adaptation andMitigation Actions

Adaptation & Interactionswith Mitigation

• Incremental & transformational adaptation

• Co-benefits, synergies, & trade-offs• Context-specific adaptation• Complementary actions

Governance

Governance• Decision- making under

uncertainty• Learning, monitoring, &

flexibility• Coordination across scales

CLIMATE CHANGEREDUCING ANDMANAGING RISKS