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ASU 2011 1Marvin Carter A-Spring DA

Arab Spring Movements DA

Shell ........................................................................................................................................... 21NC .............................................................................................................................................. 31NC .............................................................................................................................................. 4Uniqueness .............................................................................................................................. 6Uniqueness- Change Will Come .................................................................................................. 7Uniqueness- Regimes Wont Stop Movements............................................................................ 8Uniqueness- Headless Movements Work ..................................................................................... 9Uniqueness- Movements Empirically Have Worked ................................................................. 10Uniqueness- Movements Can Work ........................................................................................... 11Uniqueness- SQ is Fragile .......................................................................................................... 12Uniqueness- US cant support Middle East................................................................................ 13Uniqueness- Egypt Movements Solve........................................................................................ 14Links ........................................................................................................................................ 15Link- Democracy/NGOS Tanks Movements ............................................................................. 16Link- US Help Hurts Indigenous Movements ............................................................................ 17LinkUS Inaction Spurs Movements ....................................................................................... 18Link- Hard Power ....................................................................................................................... 19Link- US Action in Syria............................................................................................................ 20Link- US In Middle East ............................................................................................................ 21Impacts.................................................................................................................................... 22Impact- Coups ............................................................................................................................ 23Impact- Instability ...................................................................................................................... 24Impact- Corruption ..................................................................................................................... 25Impact- Human Rights ............................................................................................................... 26Impact- Destabilize Middle East ................................................................................................ 27Impact- Human Rights Cred ....................................................................................................... 28

Impact- Terrorism ...................................................................................................................... 29Impact- Imperialism = extinction ............................................................................................... 30Impact- Colonization .................................................................................................................. 31AT: Middle East Wants US ........................................................................................................ 32AT: US Action Solve ................................................................................................................. 33Aff Answers ......................................................................................................................... 34Aff- Democracy Regressing ....................................................................................................... 35Aff- Headless Movements Fail ................................................................................................... 36Aff- Movements Cant Solve ..................................................................................................... 37Aff- Movements Fail in Syria .................................................................................................... 38Aff- Movements Fail in Tunisia ................................................................................................. 39Aff- Movements Fail in Egypt ................................................................................................... 40Aff- Middle East Movements Failing ........................................................................................ 41Aff- Movements Cant Topple Regimes .................................................................................... 42Aff- SQ will Fail ........................................................................................................................ 43Aff- Democracy is Failing Now ................................................................................................. 44Aff- Democracy is Failing Now ................................................................................................. 45Aff- Democracy is Failing Now ................................................................................................. 46Aff- Movements dont Solve AU Regime.................................................................................. 47Aff- Human Rights Turn ............................................................................................................ 48Aff- Syrian Destabilization Fails ................................................................................................ 49


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Arab Spring will have social changeGhassan MichelRubeiz July 17 , is a Lebanese-American Middle East analyst with special interest in political sociology, social justiceand democracy. The Arab Spring will take a while to reach completion, Posted: Sunday, July 17, 2011 8:30 am, MCJ

We have already witnessed the miraculous speed of social transformation in an age of digitalcommunication. The closer interdependence of nations in our time ought to accelerate genuine

external support for the Arab Spring. The slow, but certain, withdrawal of American forces from theregion will favorably impact social change. Mounting pressure for respect of universal human

rights will have an effect on the Arab conscience. Another sign of hope is in the Arab youth: Theyare no longer ready to accept political lies. There is still a long road ahead in the Middle East, even ifa lot hasbeen achieved so far.

With the youth backing movements combined with the social media headless movementsare mobilizing in the Middle East to fight the traditional power structures PeterApps 11, is a political risk correspondent LONDON Fri Jun 24, 2011 3:02pm EDT , Analysis: Do "leaderless" revolts contain seeds ofown failure?, Reuters, MCJ

Activists in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere say the lack of top-down management has been animportant element in their recent success in rallying crowds disillusioned with the rulingestablishment, using social networking sites like Twitter and Facebook. Anti-austerity protesters in

Europe have used similar tactics to organize mass street protests they hope will put pressure ongovernments to rethink spending cuts. It's not all online. In street demonstrations, sit-ins and meetings in

Cairo, Athens, Madrid and London, loosely organized protesters hold public meetings and votes onimmediate logistical issues and wider political aims, trying to build agreement and consensus."Ourrevolution did not have a head but it did have a body, a heart and a soul," Egyptian-British psychiatrist SallyMoore, one of the protesters in Cairo's Tahrir Square, told a Thomson Reuters Foundation event this month on the "Arab spring." Disparateprotest groups around the world say they are learning from each other. While in previous decades

leaderless groups struggledto build name-recognition and media coverage, social media hasallowed them to put huge crowds on the street at speed.It's a model that has proved very appealing

to youthful protesters angry at her the way they believe an older generation -- whether the leaders ofthe Arab world or West's bankers and politicians -- have stolen their future. POWER TO THEPEOPLE "You will still have a core group of several dozen or more people who will provide a lot of

direction, but the rhetoric is very much against the emergence of traditional power structures," saysTim Hardy, author of the UK-based blog Beyond Clicktivism. "Social media is a part of it, definitely, but it goes beyondthat."
http://www.reuters.com/places/tunisiahttp://www.reuters.com/places/tunisia


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The US supports undemocratic institutions so gain more power for itself which maintainsthe essence of colonial chiefmanship. US intervention is what hinders movements since thedawn of the US engagement in the Middle East. These actions leave colonialism long intact

even after freedomMohamad G.Alkadry 02, is an Assistant Professor of Public Administration at West Virginia University. He received his doctorate fromFlorida Atlantic University., RECITING COLONIAL SCRIPTS: COLONIALISM, GLOBALIZATION AND DEMOCRACY IN THE

DECOLONIZED MIDDLE EAST, Administrative Theory & Praxis Vol. 24, No. 4, 2002: 739762, MCJ

The United States played a direct role in opposing and attempting to topple popular regimes such

as that of Nasser in Egypt (Copeland, 1980). It also played an indirect role by supporting friendly butundemocratic regimes in the region. In both instances, the goal was to keep or install regimes that

would serve American interests, not the national interests of the natives. In the postcolonization erain the Middle East, there are many examples of United States intervention against popularnationalist regimes or movements.In Pakistan and Kashmir, and in the name of the Cold War, the

United States supported the Inter-Services Intelligence and the Jamaat-e-Islami in order to backthe Mujahedeen resistance to the Soviets in Afghanistan (Ali, 2002). In Egypt, the United States

assisted opposition to Nassers leadership (Copeland, 1980). It also played a direct role in the removal ofthe popular nationalist government of Mossadegh in Iran in 1953 and the installation of the Shahregime (Roosevelt, 1979)a regime that had proven to be one of the most ruthless authoritarian regimes

in history (Ali, 2002). This indeed is very consistent with American foreign policies in South America inthe 1970s and 1980s (Chomsky, 1994). The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990 will have a remarkableimpact on the region for years to come. Korany (1999) argues that the taboo of an Arab state invading andeliminating another was broken and that this only initiated inter-Arab warfare on a large scale

but also sought to cancel out an Arab League member. Moreover, it justified its action by appealsthat were attractive to the majority of Arab populations: correcting colonial border demarcation,achieving Arab unity, and redressing flagrant inter-Arab inequalities (p. 51). Oppression under

colonial rule is a common colonial experience that lasts long after colonialism.Nationalist leadersdriven by principles of freedom, justice, and equality eventually turn to colonial strategies to deal

with opposition (Shafiqul-Huque, 1997). Failed progression into democratic institutions even by nationalistleaders with such intent is a common experience among most Middle East and African nations.Mamdani (1999) argues that a nationalist single party system has been the evolution trend for

dismantling colonial chiefmanship. Eventually, this single party system leads to bureaucratizationand eventually to administrative coercion adapted from colonial experiences rather than political

persuasion. The result of this defensive modernization, western imperialism and direct colonization is theformation of heavily bureaucratized political systems with much power focused on theadministration of national policies(Anderson, 1987). Halpern (1963) argues that: bureaucracies in the Middle East not onlyadminister laws, but in the absence of parliamentary institutions, usually fashion them (p. 8). Similarly, with the absence of militaryprofessionalism the military seemed to assume control of the regimes that were in directconfrontation with the western power (Anderson, 1987; Halpern, 1963; Khuri, 1982).


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Colonization through imperialism justifies genocide and extinctionRobert B.Porter 98, Seneca and Professor of Law and Director of the Tribal Law and Government Center, University of Kansas, ChiefJustice, Supreme Court of the Sac and Fox Nation, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN JOURNAL OF LAW AND REFORM, 1998, p. 11

Nonetheless, this otherwise natural process was dramatically altered by colonization. These colonizing efforts were accomplished

by force and often with great speed, producing dramatic changes within Indigenous societies andinterfering with the natural process of adaptation and change. This disruption has had a genocidal

effect; groups of Indigenous peoples that existed 500 years ago no longer exist. There should be no doubt that theirextinction was not an accidentit was the product of a concerted effort to subjugate and eliminate the native human population inorder to allow for the pursuit of wealth and manifest destiny. As a result, extinction is the most dramatic effect ofcolonization. Allowed to run its full course, colonization will disrupt and destroy the naturalevolutionary process of the people being colonized to the point of extinction.

IMPACT.A. Turns case. Democracy assistance fails if indigenous movements are coopted.Zunes, Chair of the Mid-East Studies Program, University of San Francisco, 08Stephen, Evaluating the Democratic Party Platform, September 7, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-

zunes/evaluating-the-democratic_b_124428.html

Recognizing the need to empower the vast majority of Muslims who "believe in a future of peace, tolerance, development, anddemocratization," the platform recognizes how "America must live up to our values, respect civil liberties, reject torture, and leadby example." The platform calls for the United States "to export hope and opportunity access to education that opens minds to

tolerance, not extremism; secure food and water supplies; and health care, trade, capital, and investment." The platform alsopledges the Democratic Party will "provide steady support for political reformers, democratic institutions,

and civil society that is necessary to uphold human rights and build respect for the rule of law." However,

given the extreme anti-Americanism that has grown in Islamic countries in recent years, overt backing of

opposition elements could in some cases backfire and be used to discredit indigenous movements for humanrights and democracy.

B. Civil strife. Self-directed indigenous movements are the best hope for peace andjustice.

Cassel, assistant editor of the Electric Intifada, 10Matthew, Washington Peace Talks: Democracy Need Not Apply. September 15,

http://electronicintifada.net/content/washington-peace-talks-democracy-need-not-apply/9030

Although not invited to the White House, the numerous grassroots movements across the Middle East present

the best hope for bringing peace and justice to this region. And its those increasingly popular movementsthat people around the world concerned with the fate of the Middle East should support. In the meantime, let

the puppets and their masters walk on red carpets in Washington while the real change is made by those withtheir feet on the ground.


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Uniqueness


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Uniqueness- Change Will Come

The process of liberation has already started in the Middle EastGhassan MichelRubeiz July 17, is a Lebanese-American Middle East analyst with special interest in political sociology, social justiceand democracy. The Arab Spring will take a while to reach completion, Posted: Sunday, July 17, 2011 8:30 am, MCJ

We need to be patient with the uprisings in the Arab world. The dramatic spread of the revolts and

the ease of ousting Tunisianstrongman Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarakhaveraised unrealistic expectations about the speed of political and social change in the Middle East.Letsremember that after the American Revolution, it took almost a century and a Civil War for the country to acknowledge that slavery is evil. It took

an additional 100 years to issue historic civil rights legislation. Some Arab uprisings have already achieved the first

level of liberation: political reform or regime change. Constitutional reformthe second stage ofthe strugglehas proven to be tough. And the third levelliberty in the practice of religionhas yet to start.


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Uniqueness- Regimes Wont Stop Movements

Regimes are losing the fight. The governments in the Middle East are in fear of their ownpeople as a result the governments attempt to regulate free speech exposes their ownlacking legitimacy to hinder movements

AFP Jul 13, 2011, Choking off Internet won't stop Arab Spring: US official, MCJ

WASHINGTONRegimes that choke off citizens' access to the Internet to try to quash pro-democracymovements in the Arab world are running scared and fighting a losing battle, a US diplomat said Wednesday."These are the acts of governments that fear their own people," Assistant Secretary of State for Human RightsMichael Posner said at a forum that looked at the key role new technologies have played in the drivefor democracy in the Arab world."In cracking down on the Internet, they expose their own lack of

legitimacy," Posner said, using language similar to that used in recent days by the White House and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton todescribe President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. Syrian security forces have cracked down violently on pro-

democracy demonstrators, killing more than 1,300 civilians, activists have said on their Facebookpage, which is one of the pro-democracy movement's main links to the outside world. The Assad regimehas barred foreign journalists from entering Syria to report on the four-month-old uprising and last month choked off the Internet. But anti-

Assad activists have reported regularly to the outside world via Facebook and YouTube about thesituation in Syria. "Free speech... is harder than ever to suppress in the digital age," and regimes

that target new technology as they try to cling to power are fighting the wrong fight, Posner said. "Afterall, Facebook does not foment dissent; people do," he told a packed meeting room at the New America Foundation inWashington. "Don't shoot the instant messenger. Instead, address the underlying grievances of the people -- the corruption, the abuse of power,

the environmental degradation, the lack of economic and political opportunity, the daily affronts to dignity by indifferent authorities," Posner

said. "It is this quest for dignity that has prompted so many young people to walk away from theirkeyboards and into the streets to demand their chance to build a better future," he said.


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Uniqueness- Headless Movements Work

Headless movements can challenge power elites from taking advantagePeterApps 11, is a political risk correspondent LONDON Fri Jun 24, 2011 3:02pm EDT , Analysis: Do "leaderless" revolts contain seeds ofown failure?, Reuters, MCJ

"If leaderless movements are not wholly self-destructive, they might... fizzle out allowing the pre-existing power elites to take advantage," said Hayat Alvi, lecturer in Middle East politics at the U.S. Naval War College."They need a general consensus about what they seek in the future." That can prove difficult. One of thestrengths of the "leaderless" model, protesters say, is the way it can quickly bring togetherdisparate groups working toward a common goal. But as frustration mounts, so does demand for change.


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Uniqueness- Movements Empirically Have Worked

People revolutions have demonstrated that how well they have worked in the face of themilitary. Failing to recognize this means your framing of power outdatedCynthia Boaz11,is an Asst. Prof. of Political Science, Consultant on Nonviolent Action and Strategy, Nonviolent Revolution Clarified:Five Myths and Realities Behind Egypt's Uprising, Posted: 7/14/11 01:07 PM ET, MCJ

Misconception 2: It was a military coup. Reality: It was a people-power revolution. This misconception stems partly from thefact that, at the end of the day, much hinged on whose side the military took in the struggle. But instead of giving the peoplecredit for winning the military to their side through effective campaigning and salient messaging,

many media commentators erroneously regard the military's defense of the people as a sign that itwas they who were actually leading the uprising. But the loyalty demonstrated by the military tothe people's revolution should be interpreted as a sign of how well the movement did its job, notjust of how powerful the military is in Egypt.The strategy was about unifying around a sharedvision of Egyptian society. This misconception also is partly attributable to the fact that many of us

cannot conceptualize power as taking any form other than a militaristic one. That perspectivereflects adherence to outdated assumptions and frames about violence and power, namely the

notion that those two concepts are interchangeable. Fortunately, the people of Egypt know betterand they've given the rest of the world an example from which to build.
http://huffingtonpost.com/cynthia-boazhttp://huffingtonpost.com/cynthia-boazhttp://huffingtonpost.com/cynthia-boazhttp://huffingtonpost.com/cynthia-boaz


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Uniqueness- Movements Can Work

Movements have nuanced tactics of divide-and-conquer to challenge existing powerstructures such as the military to progress their movementsCynthia Boaz11,is an Asst. Prof. of Political Science, Consultant on Nonviolent Action and Strategy, Nonviolent Revolution Clarified:Five Myths and Realities Behind Egypt's Uprising, Posted: 7/14/11 01:07 PM ET, MCJ

Misconception 1: It was spontaneous. Reality: Although commentators still tend to talk about the

Egyptian revolution as though no one could have predicted it, the key variable in the victory wasplanning. As we saw during the height of Mubarak's crackdown, the movement was able to keep thepeople of Egypt unified and, for the most part, nonviolently disciplined.Considering the lengths towhich the regime went to try and provoke violence, it was quite remarkable how focused, creativeand disciplined the activists remained.None of that would have been possible without several years

of laying the groundwork.Egyptian activists worked for years to identify and neutralize the sourcesof power in the nation of 83 million. Their effort extended to making personal connections with the

military forces and the commanders in particular.It's a nuanced divide-and-conquer strategy.After building relationships with members of the regime's pillars of support, the movement thenhelped them question the legitimacy of the ruler and the system they were upholding. When mediaanalysts talk about an uprising like the one in Egypt as spontaneous, they are revealing their lack of understanding of the dynamics of nonviolent

action and, simultaneously, are taking credit away from activists, who in many cases, have worked hard for years -- often at greatpersonal risk and sacrifice -- to make this kind of victory possible.Regimes like Mubarak's don't fallwhen people just spontaneously show up in the city square. They only fall when movements are

capable of exerting sustained pressure on them over a length of time. And that for that to happen,there must be unity, strategy, vision and, most importantly, planning, planning and more planning.


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Uniqueness- SQ is Fragile

The Middle East situation is very delicate and thus there should be no major activism orpassivity takenRichardFalk 11, is an international law and international relations scholar who taught at Princeton University for forty years. Dilemmas ofSovereignty and Intervention , July 18, 2011, MCJ

When it comes to severe human rights abuses, somewhat analogous considerations apply.In almost

every instance, deference to internal dynamics seems preferable to intervention-from-without, while softpower interventions-from-below-and-without are to be encouraged as expressions of emergentglobal democracy. Victimization and collective acute vulnerability should not be insulated from assistance by rigid notions ofsovereignty, but nor should self-determination be jeopardized by the hypocritical moral pretensions of hegemonic states. This isinevitably a delicate balance, but the alternative is to opt for extremes of passivity or activism.


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Uniqueness- US cant support Middle East

The US doesnt have the funds to back the Middle East with Hard policies. Additionally,

the next person in line to help movements with democracy would be China and they haveproven to not be interested in Democracy promotion.

JoshuaKurlantzick 11, is a fellow for South-east Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. Democracy in steep decline around theworld, Jul 15, 2011, MCJUnfortunately, if recent history proves any guide, the Iranian or Egyptian middle classes will not, in the

long run, prove to be such democrats. Just as in Thailand, a real democracy in Egypt or Tunisia would

empower working-class men and women, many of whom might support a leader who would promote

policies - populist economic strategies, or more use of Islam in lawmaking - that would be opposed by

many urban middle classes. Indeed, in Egypt some of the middle-class men and women who supportedthe revolution have already grown disillusioned with some of the policies that the poor, whose vote

finally would matter, would support. Worse still, even if the middle classes in the Middle East did

continue to back democracy, they can hardly count on long-term support from the foreign powers in the

region. As the United States becomes ensnared in Libya, and the US's own economy weakens still further,

the Obama administration will be even less willing to take on hard foreign policy choices. And the US's

replacement, in the long term, as a major power in the Middle East, China, can hardly be counted on to

back democrats. In fact, the Chinese government was so worried that its own citizens might learn about

Egypt's revolt that, for weeks, it blocked searches for the word "Egypt" on the internet in China.


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Uniqueness- Egypt Movements Solve

Council of the Armed Forces is supporting the defense of grassroots for political change toget democratically-elected governmentsGhaith Abdul-Ahad,JackShenker,NourAli,MartinChulovand IanBlack11,The fight to rescue the Arab spring,guardian.co.uk, Friday 15 July 2011 19.51 BST, MCJ

Thousands of demonstrators descended on public squares around the country to offer a "Friday of final

warning" to the ruling military junta, amid fears that the revolution which toppled Hosni Mubarak is

being betrayed by conservative forces. Rallies and hunger strikes were reported from Alexandria on the

Mediterranean coast all the way down to Luxor in the south and Suez in the east, with the main focus

once again on Cairo's Tahrir Square where a large sit-in is now over a week old and shows no sign of

ending. Protesters accused the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which assumed power in

the aftermath of Mubarak's fall and promised to make way for a democratically-elected civilian

government later this year, of stifling revolutionary demands and working to shield elements of the old

regime from grassroots political change.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/ghaith-abdul-ahadhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/ghaith-abdul-ahadhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/ghaith-abdul-ahadhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/ghaith-abdul-ahadhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/jackshenkerhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/jackshenkerhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/jackshenkerhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/jackshenkerhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/jackshenkerhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/martin-chulovhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/martin-chulovhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/martin-chulovhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/martin-chulovhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/martin-chulovhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/ianblackhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/ianblackhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/ianblackhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/ianblackhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/http://www.guardian.co.uk/http://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/ianblackhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/martin-chulovhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/jackshenkerhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/profile/ghaith-abdul-ahad


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Links


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Link- Democracy/NGOS Tanks Movements

The maintaining of democracy promotion though ngos, and other organization is used todestabilize progressive movementsGeraldSussman06, teaches urban studies and communications at Portland State University and has published widely on the internationalpolitical economy of information technology, mass media, and development. The Myths of Democracy Assistance: U.S. Political Intervention

in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe, 2006, Volume 58, Issue 07 (December), MCJ

The National Endowment for Democracy, which supports programs in over eighty countries, is aquasi-private congressionally-funded instrument, created by the Reagan administration in 1983, for channelingmoney, equipment, and political consultants and other expertise to certain countries in order to

strengthen democratic electoral processesthrough timely measures in cooperation with indigenous

democratic forces. That is, NEDs putativeraison detre is to encourage electoral activity in countries undergoing a transition to populardemocracy and support others where elections have already been instituted. NED has been described as a full-service

infrastructure-building clearinghouse that provides money, technical support, supplies, trainingprograms, media know-how, public relations assistance, and state-of-the-art equipment to select

political groups, civic organizations, labor unions, dissident movements, student groups, bookpublishers, newspapers, and other media. Ironically referring to itself as a non-governmental

organization, its overriding purpose has been to destabilize progressive movements, particularly thosewith a socialist or democratic-socialist bent.
http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europehttp://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europehttp://monthlyreview.org/archives/2006http://monthlyreview.org/archives/2006/volume-58-issue-07-december-2006http://monthlyreview.org/archives/2006/volume-58-issue-07-december-2006http://monthlyreview.org/archives/2006http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europehttp://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe


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Link- US Help Hurts Indigenous Movements

The indigenous movements dont want or need the US to engage in backroom deals

because it will only undermine global support and implementation which fractures themovement

Cynthia Boaz11,is an Asst. Prof. of Political Science, Consultant on Nonviolent Action and Strategy, Nonviolent Revolution Clarified:Five Myths and Realities Behind Egypt's Uprising, Posted: 7/14/11 01:07 PM ET, MCJ

Misconception 3: It was orchestrated by the United States, either by backroom deals or "training andsupport" of activists. Reality: This unfortunate misconception shows a gross lack of knowledge ofhow nonviolent action works.There is really only onecondition essential for the successof nonviolent

struggleand that without which a struggle can never succeed: it must be indigenous.To claimnonviolent protests of the scale we saw in Egypt last spring can be manufactured abroad is to

grossly overestimate the influence of US agents and agencies. How could US agencies organize broad-based protestsand manage to get hundreds of thousands of people to maintain nonviolent discipline while under violent assault from half a world away, while

these same agencies were, for more than five decades, unable to remove octogenarian Fidel Castro from his perch only 90 miles from the US

border and with a population eight times smaller than Egypt's? To say that it was the United States that somehow orchestrated the events in Egypt

is also to show contempt for what the people did, which is to take control of their own destiny. To question the Egyptian people'sauthorship of their own struggle serves the interests of a brutal dictator and others like him, and it

risks undermining global support for what was, both at its heart and its implementation, anindigenous people's movement.This, by the way, is not to say that US agencies have taken no interest in

or have made no attempts at influencing democracy struggles around the world. It is just to arguethat, in the case of Egypt and other successful people-power revolutions, that offer of help wasdeclined.

Best US policy is to avoid democracy assistance. Egypt proves.

Levine, legal researcher, 11Evan, http://highchairanalyst.blogspot.com/2011/02/age-of-american-observation.html, accessed 7/27/11

What wasnt accomplished by a grand vision of a Middle East rising up to gird themselves in the mantle of

DEMOCRACY and FREEDOM when given a little push from our Apaches and Abrams may have beenaccomplished by another A lettered weapon, possibly the most powerful of them all: Agency. The Tunisians and

Egyptians who took back their countries didnt do it with any help from anyone but themselves. Sure,Facebook, Twitter and the Internet may have been critical, and yes they are examples of American ingenuity, but

theyre only as American as the printing press was German. As inventors , idealists and as examples we have much

to offer the world, but our time as shepherds is over. The world is not a flock and its definitely not our flock. Wael

Ghonim was nice enough to thank CNN for its coverage of the protests, but thats exactly it, he was just being nice.

The Egyptian protesters needed Anderson Cooper about as much as the San Francisco Giants needed Barry Zito

sure it was nice having him around, but the World Series already had its starters.

We are in an age that allows us to be both incredibly global and local at the same time, but that doesnt mean

just because we can see whats going across the oceans that we need to be anything other than spectators. We

dont need to bring democracy to anyone, like Prometheus gifting fire to humanity, the world is a pretty

capable place and its a symptom of American Arrogance to think anything otherwise. There is a time to beproactive and there is a time to watch and listen, and maybe its time for the Age of American Observation.

Lets watch and listen as the rest of the world decides, for themselves, what it wants for its future and maybewhen it does lets ask what, if anything, they would like for us to do. As one proverb goes, it's better to be

silent and thought a fool, than to speak up and remove all doubt.


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LinkUS Inaction Spurs Movements

US failure to give democracy assistance increases movement activityJoshuaKurlantzick 11, is a fellow for South-east Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. Democracy in steep decline around theworld, Jul 15, 2011, MCJ

During a visit to China in 2009, Barack Obama studiously avoided any serious criticisms of Beijing's human rights record, a

sharp contrast to the tough stances of his predecessors. "At first, I had a lot of hope for human-rights [from Obama,]" TseringWoeser, a Tibetan writer and well-known critic of the Chinese government, told reporters. "But President Obama only touched

upon these issues ... Even if he brought them up, he did it without force - it was very disappointing."Later, though, theObama administration belatedly endorsed the protest movements in Tunisia and Egypt, it said almost

nothing about similar demonstrations in Bahrain, a critical US ally, and even seemed hesitant to support

protesters in Syria, hardly an American friend but a country where Washington worries about what mightreplace the government of Bashar al Assad. To be sure, as the Middle East shows, average people in many

nations have hardly given up their desire for greater freedom. Though the middle class in many countries has

actually proven an impediment to democracy, in some nations, like Iran, or Egypt, or Syria, the middle

classes remain at the forefront of reformist movements.


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Link- Hard Power

Hard power doesnt help shape political outcomesRichardFalk 11,is an international law and international relations scholar who taught at Princeton University for forty years. Dilemmas ofSovereignty and Intervention , July 18, 2011, MCJ

What can be done? We have little choice but to cope as best we can with these contradictions, especially when it

comes to uses offorce in the course of what is labeled as a humanitarian intervention or an application of the rightto protect norm.I would propose two ways to turn the abundance of information on these issues intoreliable knowledge, and hopefully thereby, to engender greater wisdom with respect to the specificsof global policy and decision-making. First, acknowledge the full range of realities in international life, including the absence ofequal protection of the law; that is, judging claims and deciding on responses with eyes wide open by being sensitive to the context, including its

many uncertainties. With these considerations in mind adopt a posture of reluctance to use force except in extreme cases. Secondly, presumestrongly against reliance on hard power resolutions of conflict situations both because the costs

almost always exceed the estimates of those advocating intervention and because military powerduring the period of the last sixty years has rarely been able to shape political outcomes in ways

that are on balance beneficial for the society on whose behalf the intervention is supposedly taking

place.


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Link- US Action in Syria

Protest movements dont want the US to get involved. Demonstrators want the US to mind

its own internal affairsEnglish.news.CN 11, U.S. raises voice against Syria despite ongoing reforms: analysts 2011-05-06 00:14:03, MCJ

Protests have erupted in the southern province of Daraa in mid March and extended to other Syrian citiesdemanding sweeping reforms. Syrian President Bashar Assad has made many overtures to calm protesters

including a major Cabinet reshuffle, the cancellation of the decades-old emergency law, and granting the

Syrian nationality to Kurds. Many other reforms are imminent amid promises to combat rampant

corruption and handle unemployment. The U.S stance has been even considered by many Syrians as a

flagrant intervention in the country's internal affairs. Hundreds of Syrians demonstrated onSunday in front of the American embassy in Damascus, urging the U.S to "mind its own internalaffairs." Syria's longstanding relationship with the Iran is of great concern to the United States. As Syriagrew more separated from the U.S, in the past few years, Syrian-Iranian relations improved, and some

analysts have called on U.S. policymakers to pull Syria away from Iran. Others believe that the

Administration should go even further in pressuring the Syrian government, and should consider

imposing harsher sanctions.
http://english.news.cn/http://english.news.cn/http://english.news.cn/


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Link- US In Middle East

A major obstacle to peace stability is the US in the Middle East.Dr. James J.Zogby 11, is the author ofArab Voices: What They Are Saying to Us, and Why it Matters(Palgrave Macmillan, October 2010)and the founder and president of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington, D.C.-based organization which serves as the political and

policy research arm of the Arab American-community, Posted: 7/16/11 12:27 PM ET, America in Trouble in the Middle East: Obama

Understands, But GOP Gloats, MCJWhat our respondents tell us is the second highest ranking "obstacle to peace and stability" is "U.S.

interference in the Arab World," which explains why the U.S. role in establishing a no-fly zone overLibya is neither viewed favorably in most countries, nor is it seen as improving Arab attitudestoward America. In fact when presented with several countries (e.g. Turkey, Iran, France, China, theU.S. etc.) and asked to evaluate whether or not each of them play a constructive role "in promotingpeace and stability in the Arab World" eight in ten Arabs give a negative assessment to the U.S.

role -- rating it significantly lower than France, Turkey, China, and, in four of six Arab countries,even lower than Iran! All of this might have been expected, as it was by the president, but it is still sobering news that

should send a strong signal to all Americans and should serve as a check on the reckless behavior ofsome lawmakers. For example, when Congress invites the prime minister of Israel to give an address that challenges and insults thepresident -- and then gives the foreign leader repeated standing ovations -- they are telling Arabs that America can't and won't play a constructive

peace-making role. And

when Congress continues to obstruct diplomacy and supports bills cutting muchneeded assistance programs to the Palestinians, Lebanon, and Egypt, they are sending Arabs the

wrong message at the wrong time. And when neo-conservatives continue to argue for a moremuscular Middle East foreign policy, urging the White House to use force or to make moredemands on various Arab parties, they are blind to the realities of the region and are treading ondangerous ground.
http://www.amazon.com/Arab-Voices-What-Saying-Matters/dp/0230102999/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1286635858&sr=1-1http://www.aaiusa.org/http://www.aaiusa.org/http://www.amazon.com/Arab-Voices-What-Saying-Matters/dp/0230102999/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1286635858&sr=1-1


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Impacts


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Impact- Coups

Coups are coming back from being non-existent in developing nations. This means thesame fear, abuses and domination will continue without consequences. Additionally, thesecoups are destroying democratic institutions.

JoshuaKurlantzick 11, is a fellow for South-east Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. Democracy in steep decline around theworld, Jul 15, 2011, MCJIn Latin America, Africa, Asia and even most of Africa, coups, which had been a frequent means of

changing governments during the Cold War, had become nearly extinct by the early 2000s. But between

2006 and 2010, the military grabbed power in Mauritania, Niger, Guinea-Bissau, Bangladesh, Fiji and

Madagascar, among others. In many other developing nations, such as Mexico, Pakistan and the

Philippines, the military managed to restore its power as the central actor in political life,dominating the civilian governments that clung to power only through the support of the armedforces. "It's almost like we've gone back to the [Ferdinand] Marcos era," prominent Filipino rights activistand lawyer Harry Roque Jr said, as he waited in his office for the security forces to come and interrogate

him. "There's the same type of fear, the same abuses, the same attitude by the military that their actions

will never face consequences." Support for democracy has become so tepid in parts of the developing

world that many of these coups were cheered: in Niger last year, thousands celebrated the military

takeover in Niamey, the capital, in part because the overthrown leader had been destroying thecountry's democratic institutions. Overall, an analysis of military coups in developing nations over

the past 20 years, conducted by David Silverman, my Council on Foreign Relations researchassociate, found that in nearly 50 per cent of cases drawn from Africa, Latin America, Asia and theMiddle East, middle-class men and women either agitated in advance for the coup, or, in polls orprominent media coverage afterwards, expressed their support for the army takeover.


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Impact- Instability

Instability results in hard crackdowns and violence against demonstratorsJoshuaKurlantzick 11, is a fellow for South-east Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. Democracy in steep decline around theworld, Jul 15, 2011, MCJ

The mood would turn violent. On April 10, 2010, some protesters opened fire on police and launched

grenades at the security forces. The troops cracked down hard in response. By the end of the day, 24people had been killed. That was just a prelude to the following month. By that time, the Red Shirts had

been camped out for weeks in the central business district, shutting down commerce and paralysing

traffic. The government and the armed forces, who had previously rejected the protesters' demands for an

immediate election, decided to take a tougher line. Advancing into the Red Shirts' encampment, heavily

armed soldiers opened fire. The Red Shirts fought back. On the evening of May 19, smoke obscured the

Bangkok skyline, the temples of the old city and the glass-and-steel high rises of the financial district.

Most of the Red Shirts would return to their homes by the end of the month, but the battle had come at a

terrible cost. The clashes had killed more than 100 people, most of them civilians. Such violence hasbecome more common in a country that was once one of the most stable in South-east Asia. Four

years before the Red Shirt protests, a different group of demonstrators had put Thailand into turmoil,

gathering on the main green in the old city of Bangkok, near the Grand Palace. Then it was thousands of

middle-class urbanites from Bangkok - lawyers, doctors, shopkeepers and others - demanding the removalof then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra from office. Dressed in the yellow of Thailand's revered

monarch, King Bhumibhol Adulyadej, the protesters were led by the People's Alliance for Democracy

(PAD), but PAD was neither democratic nor representative of the masses. It called for the reduction of the

number of elected seats in parliament, to restrict the power of the rural poor who comprise the majority of

Thais.


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Impact- Corruption

Democratized areas lead to worse corruption. It becomes unpredictable.

JoshuaKurlantzick 11, is a fellow for South-east Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. Democracy in steep decline around theworld, Jul 15, 2011, MCJ

In theory, an era of more open politics should reduce foul play. This may be true in the long run, but in

the short term the opposite often appears to happen. During an era of authoritarian rule, corruption

often remains relatively centralised and predictable, allowing citizens to understand and manageestablished networks of wrongdoing. The regime siphons off a certain percentage of money fromlocal businesses, but the number of actors involved remains relatively small. Yet, as countries

democratise, the old channels of corruption tend to vanish and new or different actors - localpolitical bosses, broader segments of the bureaucracy, staff of members of parliament - put theirhands out. As one Thai businessman who had survived decades of military rule told me: "Before, youknew who to pay to, and as long as you did, you could do business. But now [in the democratic era] even

if you make those payments, you still don't have security you can do business. But if you don't make

them, it could be even worse."

Indonesia example proves that corruption will explode.

JoshuaKurlantzick 11, is a fellow for South-east Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. Democracy in steep decline around theworld, Jul 15, 2011, MCJ

Indonesia provides a clear illustration of how political opening leads to the liberalisation of

corruption. At the beginning of the transition from longtime dictator Suharto, whose regimecollapsed in 1998, graft became decentralised, following decades of tightly controlled networks of

corruption run by the military. "Actors in the bureaucracy, judiciary, political parties, and in thearmy have re-emerged as central players in a corruption free for all in democratic Indonesia,"writes economist Michael Rock in a study of the country. A truly competitive legislature, a sharpchange from Suharto's compliant parliament, also added to an increase in corruption. Indonesianlegislators could no longer count on winning office, but the young democracy had developed few rules

governing how politicians should raise money to campaign. "With the emergence of a confrontationalrelationship between newly empowered legislatures and embattled presidents, members of parliament,

who needed ample war chests to win re-election, used their new political powers to extort funds," Rock

writes. What's more, while in the past decade a new group of emerging powers - India, South Africa,

Brazil, Turkey and China - have played a larger role in global politics, none have pushed hard for

democratisation around the globe. That China, the most powerful authoritarian nation in the world, would

not push for democracy in Asia, Latin America, Africa or the Middle East, is hardly surprising. But India,

South Africa, Brazil and Turkey have not either. South Africa has for years tolerated Robert Mugabe'sbrutal regime in Zimbabwe, and, in 2007, it helped block a UN resolution condemning Myanmar's junta

for human-rights abuses.


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Impact- Human Rights

There will be mass death without human rights protection.MarkKoppleman90, US Ambassador to the CSCE, Summer 1990, p. unknown

Yet, these great advances in the human condition have been paralleled in this century by what often seem

to be intractable political conflicts. Hundreds of millions of lives have been lost: tens of millions inwar, and an even greater number through political violence and repression. It is as if the world ofpolitics remained in the dark ages while our scientific, technological, and communications worlds moved

ahead to the tomorrows of modern civilization. A secure peace, within and among nations, can be built

only on the foundation of the institutions of freedom that protect and develop the inherent dignityand inviolable worth of every human being.

Human rights protection is key to preventing hundreds of millions from dyingPaul Hoffman04, Chair of the International Executive Committee of Amnesty International, HUMANRIGHTS QUARTERLY, November 2004, p. 932-935.

For hundreds of millions of people in the world today, the most important source of insecurity is

not a terrorist threat but grinding, extreme poverty. More than a billion of the world's six billionpeople live on less than one dollar a day. The Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the entire

human rights framework is based on the indivisibility of human rights. This includes not only civil and

political rights but also economic, social, and cultural rights. The discrepancy between these human rights

promises and the reality of life for more than one-sixth of the world's people must be eliminated if

terrorism is to be controlled. Every human being is entitled to a standard of living that allows for their

health and wellbeing, including food, shelter, and medical care. Yet more than three thousand African

children die of malaria each day. Only a tiny percentage of the twenty-six million people infected with

HIV/AIDS have access to the health care and medicine they need to survive. Many additional examples

could be given. Many governments have adopted the Millennium Development Goals to be achieved by

2015. The goals include targets for child and infant mortality, the availability of primary education for all

children, halving the number of people without access to clean water along with many others. According

to the World Bank, these goals will not be achieved, in part because the "war on terrorism" is shiftingattention and resources away from long-term development issues. How can we eradicate violent

challenges to the existing world order if education is not universal? Without education and peaceful

exchanges between peoples, the "war on terrorism" will only succeed in creating new generations of

warriors. Why is terrorism given more attention than the scourge of violence against women? Millions of

women are terrorized in their daily lives, yet no "war" on violence against women is being waged.

Clearly, this problem is more widespread than terrorist violence and invariably makes women insecure as

well as second-class citizens in every corner of the world. If some of the resources and attention devoted

to the "war on terrorism" were diverted to the eradication of world poverty or eliminating violence against

women, would the world be more secure? There is no easy answer to this question, but the "war on

terrorism" seems to sideline any serious discussions, along with any serious action on the other pressingcauses of human insecurity. True security depends on all of the world's peoples having a stake in the

international system and receiving the basic rights promised by the Universal Declaration ofHuman Rights, regardless of race, gender, religion, or any other status.


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Impact- Destabilize Middle East

The US is trying to destabilize the Middle East by forcing the Middle East into sanctions tomaintain US ideology and interestsEnglish.news.CN 11, U.S.raises voice against Syria despite ongoing reforms: analysts 2011-05-06 00:14:03, MCJ

DAMASCUS, May 5 (Xinhua) -- Obama's administration condemned what it said an "outrageous violence"against protesters in Syria, the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Thursday. "The United States is

looking at boosting sanctions it has already imposed on Syrian leaders," she said. Many politicalanalysts criticized the American intervention in the Syrian affairs, pointing out that suchintervention aims to undermine Syria's regional and international stances. Midian Ali, professor of

international economic relations at the University of Damascus, told Xinhua that the United States aims to rebuild the MiddleEast on new foundations that serve its interests. He added that "America is trying hard to destabilize the

Middle East by striking Syria" because it had resisted the American projects in Iraq, Lebanon andPalestinian territories. Obama's administration imposed sanctions on three top Syrian officials as well as Syria's intelligence agencyover what it called a crackdown of protests. Syria is already under U.S. sanctions because it has been designated as a "state sponsor of terrorism"

by the state department, however the new sanctions extend the penalties to individuals.
http://english.news.cn/http://english.news.cn/http://english.news.cn/


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Impact- Human Rights Cred

Human rights credibility is vital to solve the inevitable extinction.

Rhonda Copelan 99, law professor, NYU, NEW YORK CITY LAW REVIEW, 1999, p. 71-2

The indivisible human rights framework survived the Cold War despite U.S. machinations totruncate it in the international arena. The framework is there to shatter the myth of the superiority.Indeed, in the face of systemic inequality and crushing poverty, violence by official and private

actors, globalization of the market economy, and military and environmental depredation, thehuman rights framework is gaining new force and new dimensions. It is being broadened today bythe movements of people in different parts of the world, particularly in the Southern Hemisphereand significantly of women, who understand the protection of human rights as a matter ofindividual and collective human survival and betterment. Also emerging is a notion of third-

generation rights, encompassing collective rights that cannot be solved on a state-by-state basis and that

call for new mechanisms of accountability, particularly affecting Northern countries. The emerging rights

include human-centered sustainable development, environmental protection, peace, and security. Given

the poverty and inequality in the United States as well as our role in the world, it is imperative that we

bring the human rights framework to bear on both domestic and foreign policy.


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Impact- Terrorism

1. Movements and spur democratic freedoms and strike a blow against terrorist networksCynthia Boaz11,is an Asst. Prof. of Political Science, Consultant on Nonviolent Action and Strategy, Nonviolent Revolution Clarified:Five Myths and Realities Behind Egypt's Uprising, Posted: 7/14/11 01:07 PM ET, MCJ

It is important that events like the ones in Egypt are conveyed as accurately as possible by media

for many reasons, but one of the most significant is that the victory of mass nonviolent action in

Egypt has implications for terrorist organizations and the perceived efficacy of terrorism itself. Asnonviolent methods to push grievances succeed, they de-legitimize violence as a means of promotingchange. Nonviolent action offers a realistic alternative to both violence and the status quo and it is,simultaneously, a very powerful form of struggle. If we consider that terrorist organizations and

members of movements tend to share the same recruitment bases -- disaffected people demandingsignificant change -- then the victory in Egypt has likely done serious damage to the PR campaignsof terrorist networks. Because of that, the people of Egypt should not only be lauded for taking

back their freedom through almost entirely democratic means, but for making the world a little bitsafer for everyone.

2. Terrorism risks extinctionSean Hannity 04, Fox News Political Analyst, 2004, Deliver Us from Evil: Defeating Terrorism, Despotism, and Liberalism, pg. 6But the terrorists are no mere political sideshow. Though it manifests itself differently, the threat they

represent is every bit as grave as the one we experienced during World War II or the Cold War. There is

no appeasing this enemy; they will stop at nothing in their quest to destroy the United States, and they

will lay waste to every human life they can in the process. As you read these words, the evildoers areplotting the disruption of our lives, the destruction of our property, the murder of our families. Today or

tomorrow, fanatical extremists could come in possession of suitcase nuclear weapons or otherweapons of mass destruction, whether through rogue nations or via black-market thugs from theformer Soviet Union. We face the possibility of our civilization being destroyed, as surely as we didduring the Cuban Missile Crisis; indeed, with recent advances in technology and the ongoinginstability in the Middle East and around the world, the danger may be worse than ever.


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Impact- Imperialism = extinction

Imperialism results in extinctionRobert B.Porter98, Seneca and Professor of Law and Director of the Tribal Law and Government Center, University of Kansas, ChiefJustice, Supreme Court of the Sac and Fox Nation, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN JOURNAL OF LAW AND REFORM, 1998, p. 11

Nonetheless, this otherwise natural process was dramatically altered by colonization. These colonizing

efforts were accomplished by force and often with great speed, producing dramatic changes withinIndigenous societies and interfering with the natural process of adaptation and change. This disruption hashad a genocidal effect; groups of Indigenous peoples that existed 500 years ago no longer exist. There

should be no doubt that their extinction was not an accidentit was the product of a concerted effort to

subjugate and eliminate the native human population in order to allow for the pursuit of wealth and

manifest destiny. As a result, extinction is the most dramatic effect of colonization. Allowed to run its

full course, colonization will disrupt and destroy the natural evolutionary process of the peoplebeing colonized to the point of extinction.


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Impact- Colonization

Colonization leads to genocide and violenceDalaiLama01, Commencement Address by His Holiness the XIV Dalai Lama of Tibet, The John Hopkins University School of AdvancedInternational Studies, May 24, 2001, http://www.savetibet.org/tibet/hhdl/usvisits/2001/address.php

The concept of the basic sameness of human beings is as simple as it is true. While individuals are

basically the same, groups have through the ages developed ways of life best suited to their distinctenvironments and situations. The resulting diversity has greatly enriched humanity. Each civilization,culture and spiritual tradition contributes in its own way to our human needs, knowledge, and well-being.

We can learn much from each others cultures and spiritual traditions for to do so will increase mutualunderstand and respect. Sometimes it is possible to encounter something in another tradition that helps us

better appreciated something in our own. So whether through an irresponsible rush toward

globalization, or as a result of war, physical or cultural genocide, or an assimilation policy imposedon the weak or vulnerable, the loss of each and every culture and spiritual tradition is not only aloss for the people concerned, but also it is a loss for us all. The loss of any of these cultural andspiritual traditions diminishes humankind.


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AT: Middle East Wants US

US meddling in the Middle East is not desired. Recent Polls prove.Dr. James J.Zogby 11, is the author ofArab Voices: What They Are Saying to Us, and Why it Matters(Palgrave Macmillan, October 2010)and the founder and president of the Arab American Institute (AAI), a Washington, D.C.-based organization which serves as the political and

policy research arm of the Arab American-community, Posted: 7/16/11 12:27 PM ET, America in Trouble in the Middle East: Obama

Understands, But GOP Gloats, MCJ

A few months back I had a quick exchange with President Obama about the U.S. standing in the Arab World. When I mentioned that we would

be conducting a poll to assess Arab attitudes two years after his Cairo speech, he responded that he expected that the ratings would be quite lowand would remain low until the U.S. could help find a way to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Well, the results are in, and the president

was right. In our survey of over 4,000 Arabs from six countries (Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan,Saudi Arabia and the UAE), we found that favorable attitudes toward the U.S. had declined

sharply since our last poll (which had been conducted in 2009 after Obama's first 100 days inoffice). Back then, Arabs were hopeful that the new president would bring needed change to the

U.S.-Arab relationship and the early steps taken by his administration only served to reinforce thisview. As a result, favorable attitudes toward the U.S. climbed significantly from Bush-era lows. But asour respondents made clear in this year's survey, those expectations have not been met and U.S. favorable ratings, inmost Arab countries, have now fallen to levels lower than they were in 2008, the last year of the Bush administration. In Morocco,

for example, positive attitudes toward the United States went from 26% in 2008 to a high 55% in 2009.Today, they have fallen to 12%. The story was much the same in Egypt, where the U.S. rating went from9% in 2008 to 30% in 2009 and has now plummeted to 5% in this year's survey.
http://www.amazon.com/Arab-Voices-What-Saying-Matters/dp/0230102999/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1286635858&sr=1-1http://www.aaiusa.org/http://www.aaiusa.org/http://www.amazon.com/Arab-Voices-What-Saying-Matters/dp/0230102999/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1286635858&sr=1-1


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AT: US Action Solve

Egyptian government makes it impossible for democracy organizations to work because itdoes nothing to change the underlying power structures and regime dynamics.Anne MarielPeters 11, is an assistant professor in the department of government at Wesleyan University,Why Obama shouldn't increase democracy aid to Egypt Posted Monday, February 14, 2011 - 5:15 PM, MCJ

Returning to the big picture, the most fundamental problem with traditional democracy and governanceprograms is that they do nothing to change underlying power structures and regime dynamics. In

their primary focus on elections monitoring, party building, and grassroots civil society activism, theseprograms are supposed to remedy two important obstacles to democracy: 1) the disorganization,resource depravity, and political passiveness of non-regime collectives, and 2) the local population'sdisaffected attitude toward the democratic process. Yet these "obstacles" are rational responses ofsociety to the real problem: authoritarian machinations, repression, and electoral manipulation.

Democracy and governance programs attempt to treat the symptoms rather than the disease, andfail on both accounts. Not only did the Mubarak regime resist the "bottom up" mobilization that these programs claimed to effect, but itsquashed individual projects like pesky flies. In 2006, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs called major U.S. democracy organizat ions and told them

to keep low profiles until their registrations came through. The registrations did not come through (nor were they denied), but facing the threat of

eviction all the groups were compelled to lower the intensity and public profile of their activities. This meant smaller, more informal meetings,avoiding potential local partners that were highly politicized, and accepting the fact that hotels and conference centers would routinely cancel

their events under government pressure. The government occasionally refused to accredit elections monitors from unregistered NGOs, questioned

American staff, and warned the organizations to put off certain activities. In short, the Egyptian government made it almostimpossible for democracy organizations to do their work.
http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypthttp://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypthttp://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypthttp://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/02/14/why_obama_shouldn_t_increase_democracy_aid_to_egypt


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Aff Answers


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Aff- Democracy Regressing

Expanded democracy promotion has been non-unique for the last 25 yearsGeraldSussman06, teaches urban studies and communications at Portland State University and has published widely on the internationalpolitical economy of information technology, mass media, and development. The Myths of Democracy Assistance: U.S. Political Intervention

in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe, 2006, Volume 58, Issue 07 (December), MCJ

One of the notable shifts in post-Soviet world politics is the almost unimpeded involvement of Western agents, consultants, and public and

private institutions in the management of national election processes around the worldincluding those in the former Soviet allied states. Ascommunist party apparatuses in those countries began to collapse by the late 1980s and in almost bloodless fashion gave way to emerging

political forces, the West, especially the United States, was quick to intercede in their political and economicaffairs. The methods of manipulating foreign elections have been modified since the heyday of CIA

cloak and dagger operations, but the general objectives of imperial rule are unchanged. Today, theU.S. government relies less on the CIA in most cases and more on the relatively transparent

initiatives undertaken by such public and private organizations as the National Endowment for Democracy(NED), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), Freedom House, George Soross Open Society,and a network of other well-financed globetrotting public and private professional political

organizations, primarily American, operating in the service of the states parallel neoliberal

economic and political objectives. Allen Weinstein, who helped establish NED, noted: A lot of what

we [NED] do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA.1

Egyptian democracy movement is failing nowKristinaKausch10, is a researcher at FRIDE, Assessing Democracy Assistance: Egypt, may 2010, muse, MCJWhat has remained ofthe Egyptian Arab Spring? The Kefaya movement, weakened by clampdowns and

internal ideological and personal divisions, has failed to mobilise the masses beyond its urbanintellectual roots. Previously hailed as a broad coalition of pro-democratic individuals from across

the political spectrum, united by their wish to counter Mubarak, the politically and sociallyheterogeneous movement was eventually eroded by the growing difficulties of creating meaningful

internal consensus. At the same time, the government learned its lessons and demonstrations are now increasinglycountered by the regimes optimised preventative capacities and a number of new legal restrictions. Most of the democratic gainshave been reversed, and the regime has imposed some additional legal and de facto obstacles to

activism, political competition and a free press. The permanent state of emergency, which provides the regime withpractically unlimited powers to rule by decree, has remained in place since 1981 despite persistent domestic and international pressure and

repeated contrary pledges by Mubarak himself. Egyptian democracy is in regression.
http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europehttp://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europehttp://monthlyreview.org/archives/2006http://monthlyreview.org/archives/2006/volume-58-issue-07-december-2006http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe#en1http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe#en1http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe#en1http://monthlyreview.org/archives/2006/volume-58-issue-07-december-2006http://monthlyreview.org/archives/2006http://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europehttp://monthlyreview.org/2006/12/01/the-myths-of-democracy-assistance-u-s-political-intervention-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe


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Aff- Headless Movements Fail

There are limits to headless movements and with no direction the existing power structureswith the military backing them will put the movement at an immediate disadvantagePeterApps 11, is a political risk correspondent LONDON Fri Jun 24, 2011 3:02pm EDT , Analysis: Do "leaderless" revolts contain seeds ofown failure?, Reuters, MCJBut the model has its limits. In Egypt and Tunisia, where protesters successfully ousted PresidentHosni Mubarak and Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, there are already signs the protesters are being sidelined by moreestablished power centers. In elections likely only weeks away, the westernized activists of Tahrir Square may

be barely represented as power shifts back to the military -- who remain in control -- and the moreorganized Muslim Brotherhood. In Libya and Syria, where popular uprisings turned into outrightarmed intervention and insurgency, initially leaderless rebels found themselves at an immediatedisadvantage. Whether at the ballot box or on the battlefield, some experts say that without some form of commandand control leaderless groups will simply be outmaneuvered. That might leave them a simple choice: build morecoherent leadership structures or join with other organizations that already have them.

Movements with no leaders have a large error margin and tend to never have a lastingimpactPeterApps 11, is a political risk correspondent LONDON Fri Jun 24, 2011 3:02pm EDT , Analysis: Do "leaderless" revolts contain seeds ofown failure?, Reuters, MCJThere are risks that without a formal decision-making structure, the room for error is huge. "Thereis a danger people will simply focus on one leader and projects all their hopes on to that person or

group," says Beyond Clicktivism's Hardy. "You're already seeing membership of nationalist groups pick up."Some are also concerned about the radicalism of emerging cyber entities such as Anonymous andLulzsec, "hactivist" groups who were behind a string of recent attacks on government and corporatetargets. Both groups are believed to have a "leaderless" structure but there are signs that Lulzsecat least is already being undermined by internal feuding [ID:nL6E7HM12C]. Like Islamist networks such as Al Qaeda-- whose central leadership was weakened after September 11 and is now believed to consist largely of semi-independent franchises --

leaderless organizations might sometimes achieve big spectacles but struggle to have a lastingimpact. "In general, not having a single leader makes an organization harder to track," said AmichaiShulman, chief technical officer of IT security firm Imperva. "(But) at the same time it reduces the ability ... to carryout complex operations."
http://www.reuters.com/places/syriahttp://www.reuters.com/places/syria


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Aff- Movements Cant Solve

The US keeps popular liberation movements under wraps by supporting undemocraticregimes that way it can blame the public for their disadvantage. This means that repressiveregimes that keep the Middle East in torture

Mohamad G. Alkadry 02, is an Assistant Professor of Public Administration at West Virginia University. He received his doctorate fromFlorida Atlantic University., RECITING COLONIAL SCRIPTS: COLONIALISM, GLOBALIZATION AND DEMOCRACY IN THEDECOLONIZED MIDDLE EAST, Administrative Theory & Praxis Vol. 24, No. 4, 2002: 739762, MCJ

Democracy contradicts European and American interests in the Middle East. This encouragesrepressive Arab regimes to suppress freedoms and pluralism (Ghadban, 2002). Ghadban cites opposition by the Arabpublic to any existing proposal for an unjust resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict as a reason for the international superpowers to reject

democracy and selfdetermination of the peoples in the Middle East. Consistent with colonial images of natives bycolonial writers and cultural producers (Said, 1993), the American popular culture production has

stepped into position and acted to de-humanize the Arab peoples using its very most powerful andpervasive tool, Hollywood. Shaheen (2001) reviewed 900 Hollywood movies with Arab images, concludingthat: Hollywood has indicted all Arabs as Public Enemy Number 1 (p.1). He sees this vilification of

Arab as extending the image of native in favor of US interests in the Middle East. In other words,

the United States will keep popular liberation movements under wraps by supporting ruthlessundemocratic regimes and at the same time it will blame the Arab public for their continueddisadvantagetheir nativeness.Therefore, the experience with colonization seems to havecontinued to haunt the peoples of the Middle East even after achieving national independence.

The plan abandons imperialism. Because the US has supported undemocratic regimes, it mustreverse its policy of support through the plan to overcome its own imperialism.

Thompson, 11, senior, Cal State East Bay and editorial editor, Pioneer OnlineWill, The US Tarries in Responding to Egypts Protests. February 3,

http://thepioneeronline.com/editorials/2011/02/the-u-s-tarries-in-responding-to-egypts-protests/

More importantly, standing on the side of peoples rather than regimes is something the United States needs torecognize as a benefit and not a detriment to the betterment of humanity. Fearing the prospect of anti-

American elements in a government is unreasonable when one fails to account that American policy helped

create the climate of repression and authoritarianism that stifled even most basic, elementary aspirations of

the ordinary Egyptian.

The American policy of supporting illegitimate, tyrannical governments composed of the e lite, at the cost ofthe dignity and self-worth of the average citizen, be they Egyptian, Tunisian, Iranian, etc., discredits the

professed American desire for freedom and democracy for all, and displays an outdated, imperialistic

attitude that renders our leaders and our stature in the world more and more irrelevant.

In the end, the Egyptian people will determine who will rule themnot Washington. However they decide

upon their new government, we hope that the respect for the rights of religious minorities, equality for women and

true political and economic reforms are among their priorities. Above all, we wish to convey to the Egyptian people

that we stand by them in their plea for democracy, and not with those who would wish to deny them freedom.


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Aff- Movements Fail in Syria

Movements have not been able to hinder the violence or topple regimes in SyriaThe Guardian, 7-15-11(British newspaper, The Fight to Rescue the Arab Spring.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/15/arab-spring-rescue-renewed-protesters

The historic revolutions that have rippled through the Arab world this year were in danger of

eclipse on Friday night as protesters returned to the streets to profess their disgust at how themovement is being stymied by regimes old and new. Six months after the Arab spring claimed its firstdictator, the main squares of Cairo and Tunis were again alive with protest, teargas and fury at the

resistance to change shown by interim authorities. In Syria activists said at least 19 people had been

killed in the latest crackdown against protests that have convulsed the country for more than four

months. At least seven people were killed in Yemen amid a political limbo that appears no closer toresolution. And in Jordan a heavy security presence policed pro- and anti-reform demonstrations whichturned violent. The scenes served as a reminder that following the euphoria of the Arab spring, little

concrete progress towards reform has been made. Elections in Tunisia and Egypt have been postponed.

Offers of reform in Yemen and Syria have been rejected as inadequate.

Live rounds are being shot at demonstrators- preventing movements from solvingThe Guardian, 7-15-11(British newspaper, The Fight to Rescue the Arab Spring.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jul/15/arab-spring-rescue-renewed-protesters

Activists reported at least 19 deaths across Syria and dozens of injuries as people gathered for themain weekly prayers, which have been used as a launching pad for dissent for more than fourmonths. Heavy clashes took place in parts of the capital, according to activists and state media, whooffered widely diverging accounts. At least seven protesters were shot dead in neighbourhoods of

Damascus as some of the largest crowds since the uprising poured on to the streets. Security forces have

generally used batons and teargas in Damascus to avoid inflaming protests in the heartland of the regime's

power. Elsewhere, scores of wounded were reported in the cities of Aleppo, Deraa, Idleb and Homs.Syrian officials again blamed armed gangs for the violencean indirect reference to Islamists whoit claims are trying to ignite sectarian chaos. However, activists said unarmed demonstrators wereagain attacked by soldiers firing live rounds. The use of violence has been unpredictable, changing by

week and location. In Homs, one resident in the well-off neighbourhood of Inshaat said security forcesappeared to be trying to avoid deaths. "They have been shooting but seemed to be aiming at the legs

rather that the heads." Two of the biggest protests took place in Hama and Deir Ezzor, on a day when

activists estimated that up to 1 million people may have openly defied the regime nationwide.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/syriahttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/jordanhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/tunisiahttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/egypthttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/egypthttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/tunisiahttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/jordanhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/world/syria


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Aff- Movements Fail in Tunisia

Regimes respond with violence to demonstrators in Tunisia who are trying to practicepeace.Ghaith Abdul-Ahad,JackShenker,NourAli,MartinChulovand IanBlack11,The fight to rescue the Arab spring,guardian.co.uk, Friday 15 July 2011 19.51 BST, MCJ

For anyone new to the Tunisian capital, it was almost as though the past six months had never

happened. Balaclava-wearing riot police armed with batons, teargas launchers and dogs squaredup against a small crowd of demonstrators who had gathered to express a sentiment widely felt in

the city: that the revolution has run into the sand, stymied by a caretaker administration that theysay has done little to implement revolutionaries' demands. The central government square or Qasbahwas protected by coils of barbed wire and armoured vehicles, as demonstrators waving Tunisian flags

chanted "peaceful, peaceful". Then the trouble started. The first gas canister spewed a thick white smoke

and was quickly followed by many others. Protesters ran for cover into dark shadows against a white gas

screen. Two men held their ground, kneeling bare-chested and facing the charging police. A third stopped

a canister that whirled past, picked it up and threw it back at police lines. As the fumes dispersed, the

demonstrators returned, their numbers now swelled into the hundreds. Some began pelting police with

small rocks. "The people who tortured me are still there," said Malek Khudaira pointing at the ministry

where he was held for 10 days during the uprising that toppled the former dictator Zine al-Abidine Ben

Ali. "How can I feel there is change and it's a full revolution if everything is the same, I see those

torturers walking in the streets every day." For hours a game of attack and counter attacked ensued.

Demonstrators would march, police would fire hails of canisters into their midst. One man in black

trousers, white shirt and sunglasses stood facing the police when they fired a small canister point blank at

his belly. He fell where he stood. Others helped him away.

Tunisia democracy advancements have been pushed back with an increase in human rightsviolationsDaily Mirror 11, West turns Arab Spring into mirage, FRIDAY, 01 JULY 2011 00:09, MCJBut six months on, the Arab Spring appears to be fading without bearing much fruit. It makes onewonder whether the West which has been apprehensive of democracy in the Arab world

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