ARC Resources Ltd.Investor PresentationSeptember 2021
2
Shares outstanding 725 million
Market capitalization1 $6.3 billion
Net debt2 $2.1 billion
Enterprise value1 2 $8.4 billion
Quarterly dividend3 $0.066/share
Dividend yield4 3.0%
ARC Is the Largest Pure-play Montney Producer
(1) Market Capitalization as at August 30, 2021.(2) Net Debt excluding Lease Obligations as at June 30, 2021. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.(3) ARC’s board of directors has approved a 10% increase to ARC’s quarterly dividend, from $0.06/share to $0.066/share. The dividend increase is effective for ARC’s
third quarter 2021 dividend, payable on October 15, 2021 to shareholders of record on September 30, 2021.(4) Dividend yield as at August 30, 2021.(5) Source: Company reports, estimated operated Montney volumes used in the absence of public disclosure.
Mboe/day
Montney production5
ARC
Peer 1
Peer 2
Peer 3
Peer 4
Peer 5
Peer 6
ARC is the premium investment opportunity for exposure to the Montney
~3402%
22%
15%61%
Crude oil CondensateNGLs Natural gas
~340
3
ARC’s Guiding Principles
ARC’s guiding principles are enduring
Sustainable business model with best-in-class
people and assets, along with a relentless focus onlong-term profitability
Risk managementaround all aspects of the
business, includingmaintaining a strong
financial position through commodity price cycles
Superior capital disciplinefocused on maximizing free
funds flow1 to optimize shareholder returns
Owned-and-operated infrastructure to support operational control, low cost
structure, and optimized revenue streams
Operational excellenceand top-tier ESG performance
through efficient and disciplined execution
(1) Free Funds Flow is a non-GAAP measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.
4
ARC Is a Premier Business
ARC delivers financial strength, free funds flow3, returns to shareholders, profitable growth, and ESG excellence
Substantial free funds flow3
Free funds flow3 is forecasted to be ~$1.0 billion in 20212
Recently increased dividend by 10% and instituted normal course issuer bidDividend is sustainable at less than US$40/bbl WTI and Cdn$1.90/GJ AECONCIB will allow ARC to purchase up to 72.2 million of its common shares outstanding (10% of public float)
Profitable development runwayDecades’ worth of high-quality inventory maps to a 5% growth rate over the long term
Global leader in ESGLowest GHG emissions intensity in the sector in Canada; member of the 30% Club
Strong balance sheetInvestment-grade credit rating; net debt1 is forecasted to be less than 1.0 time annualized funds from operations by Q3 20212
(1) Net Debt excluding Lease Obligations. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.(2) Based on forward price curve as at August 30, 2021.(3) Free Funds Flow is a non-GAAP measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.
2021 Outlook
6
2021 Plan – Executing on ARC’s Disciplined Strategy
ARC’s 2021 plan increases total shareholder value and delivers on free funds flow2 priorities
De-risk the business through debt reductionMaintain investment-grade credit rating and reduce net debt1 to ~1.0 annualized funds from operations
Increase return of capitalSustainably increase dividend by 10% and institute normal course issuer bid
Sanction and commence development of Attachie West Phase ISubject to Board approval, execute leading development opportunity in the most efficient and profitable manner possible
Fully integrate Seven GenerationsIntegrate people, assets, and processes while focusing on realizing immediate cost savings and synergies
(1) Net Debt excluding Lease Obligations. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.(2) Free Funds Flow is a non-GAAP measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.
7
Delivering on Free Funds Flow1 Priorities
ARC’s maintenance capital and current dividend break-even is less than US$40/bbl WTI and Cdn$1.90/GJ AECO
(1) Free Funds Flow is a non-GAAP measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.
US$40/bbl WTICdn$1.90/GJ AECO
US$45/bbl WTICdn$2.25/GJ AECO
US$55/bbl WTICdn$2.50/GJ AECO
Funds fromOperations
Maintenance Capital Current Dividend Attachie West Phase ICapital
Incremental Returnsto Shareholders
Excess Free FundsFlow
Maintenance capital:~$1.1 billion annually to sustain production at~340,000 boe/day
Free funds flow1:• Current dividend• Sustainable dividend
increases• Share repurchases• Attachie West Phase I• Complementary M&A
Excess Free FundsFlow1
8
Synergies Captured
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
Corporate Costs Finance Costs Operating Efficiencies Market Optimization Drilling & Completions Efficiencies Annual Synergies
$160 Million in Annual Synergies from 7G AcquisitionSynergies expected for 2022
$160 millionSynergies
$45 million
$50 million1
$15 million
$25 million
$25 million
(1) Finance costs are expected to be approximately $50 million lower for the combined entity than they would have been if the Seven Generations senior notes remained outstanding.
ARC estimates that over half of identified synergies have been captured to-date
9
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
US$40/bbl WTI &US$2.30/MMBtuNYMEX Henry
Hub
US$50/bbl WTI &US$2.60/MMBtuNYMEX Henry
Hub
US$60/bbl WTI &US$2.90/MMBtuNYMEX Henry
Hub
US$70/bbl WTI &US$3.20/MMBtuNYMEX Henry
Hub
Net Debt (LHS) Net Debt to Funds from Operations (RHS)
De-risking the Business through Debt Reduction
Investment-grade credit rating allows for access to low-cost debt
2021 forecasted net debt2 sensitivities$ billions, ratio
(1) Assumes Cdn$/US$ exchange rate of 1.2405 as at June 30, 2021.(2) Net Debt excluding Lease Obligations. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.
Cdn$ millions
Long-term notes repayment schedule1
ARC has ample liquidity+ $2.0 billion unsecured extendible revolving credit facility+ $1.9 billion of available liquidity
0
150
300
450
600
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
3.72% US$ Note8.21% US$ Note5.36% US$ Note3.31% US$ Note3.81% US$ Note4.49% Cdn$ Note2.354% Cdn$ Note3.465% Cdn$ Note
10
Evaluating Complementary M&A Opportunities
ARC has no holes in its portfolio but will continue to evaluate complementary M&A opportunities with the Company’s screening criteria
Assets must be as good or better than ARC’s existing assets
Opportunity can create scale and/or unique synergies
Assets must have similar ESG characteristics and performance
Assets must be able to increase free funds flow1 per share at various commodity scenarios
Infrastructure must be largely owned and operated
(1) Free Funds Flow is a non-GAAP measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.
11
0%
6%
12%
18%
24%
ARC
Average Free Cash Flow Yield (2021E to 2022E)Dividend Yield (Current)
Industry-leading Financial Performance amongst Peers
ARC is expected to deliver one of the highest cash return and return on average capital employed amongst its Canadian peers
Comparative cash returns1 2 2022E return on average capital employed3 4
(1) Source: Barclays Capital Markets; FactSet (April 2021). Peer group includes North American E&Ps: APA, AR, CLR, CNQ, CNX, COG, COP, CVE, DVN, EOG, EQT, FANG, MRO, OVV, PXD, RRC, SWN, TOU, XEC.(2) Free Cash Flow Yield is calculated as funds from operations less capital expenditures and dividends.(3) Source: Peters & Co. “E&P Overview Tables” (July 26, 2021). Peer group includes North American E&Ps: APA, AR, CNQ, COG, DVN, EOG, FANG, OVV, PXD, TOU.(4) Return on Average Capital Employed is calculated as unhedged cash flow less Peters & Co.’s estimate of required capital spending to maintain flat production volumes year-over-year, expressed as a percentage of capital employed. Capital employed is defined as average shareholders’ equity excluding impairment plus net debt.
Canadian E&PsUS E&Ps
Canadian E&PsUS E&Ps
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
ARC
12
Guidance – Production
Production
Crude oil (bbl/day) 8,000 - 9,000 12,000 - 13,500 9,000 - 10,500
Condensate (bbl/day) 72,000 - 78,000 55,000 - 60,000 55,000 - 60,000
Crude oil and condensate (bbl/day) 80,000 - 87,000 67,000 - 73,500 64,000 - 70,500
Natural gas (MMcf/day) 1,230 - 1,265 1,100 - 1,140 1,100 - 1,140
NGLs (bbl/day) 50,000 - 53,000 40,000 - 42,000 40,000 - 42,000
Total production (boe/day) 335,000 - 350,000 290,000 - 305,000 287,000 - 302,000
2021Guidance1 2
2021 RevisedGuidance1 2
Q3 2021 to Q4 2021Guidance1 2
• ARC disposed of its Pembina assets in Q2 2021, and as such, adjusted its guidance for crude oil and total production; guidance for condensate, natural gas, and NGLs production remains unchanged
• Q3 2021 to Q4 2021 production guidance is unchanged at ~340,000 boe/day
(1) ARC acquired Seven Generations Energy Ltd. on April 6, 2021, and as such, 2021 guidance includes ARC’s financial and operational results for the three months ended March 31, 2021, plus the Company’s expectations for the combined financial and operational results of ARC’s and Seven Generations Energy Ltd.’s operations for theremainder of 2021.
(2) COVID-19 impacts on demand and market volatility may impact ARC’s future financial and operational results. ARC will continuously monitor its guidance and provide updates as deemed appropriate.
13
Guidance – Expenses and Capital Expenditures2021 Revised
Guidance1 2
Expenses ($/boe)Operating 4.10 - 4.60 3.90 - 4.40Transportation 4.50 - 5.00 4.50 - 5.00G&A expense before share-based compensation expense3 0.90 - 1.00 0.90 - 1.00G&A - share-based compensation expense4 0.30 - 0.45 0.30 - 0.45Transaction costs 0.20 - 0.30 0.20 - 0.30Interest and financing 0.70 - 0.80 0.70 - 0.80
Current income tax expense as a per cent of funds from operations 1 - 5 1 - 5Capital expenditures before land and net property acquisitions (dispositions) ($ millions) 950 - 1,000 950 - 1,000
2021Guidance1 2
• ARC disposed of its Pembina assets in Q2 2021, and as such, lowered its guidance for operating expenses
(1) ARC acquired Seven Generations Energy Ltd. on April 6, 2021, and as such, 2021 guidance includes ARC’s financial and operational results for the three months ended March 31, 2021, plus the Company’s expectations for the combined financial and operational results of ARC’s and Seven Generations Energy Ltd.’s operations for theremainder of 2021.
(2) COVID-19 impacts on demand and market volatility may impact ARC’s future financial and operational results. ARC will continuously monitor its guidance and provide updates as deemed appropriate.(3) Excludes transaction costs associated with the acquisition of Seven Generations Energy Ltd.(4) Comprises expense recognized under all share-based compensation plans, with the exception of the Deferred Share Unit Plans.
14
Guidance – Capital Program of $950 Million to $1.0 Billion
Focused on asset integration, sustaining production, and maximizing free funds flow2 generation
~$5MM~3,500 boe/dayComplete detailed engineering work for Attachie West Phase I
Attachie
~$80MM ● 9 wells~44,000 boe/dayExpand existing facility by 40 MMcf/day and maximize throughput to capitalize on anticipated strength in natural gas pricing
Sunrise
~$60MM ● 16 wells~17,000 boe/dayDeliver profitable light oil production by leveraging2020 facility expansion
Ante Creek
~$525MM ● 55 wells~180,000 boe/dayIntegrate asset and focuson maximizing free fundsflow2 generation
Kakwa1
~$240MM ● 44 wells~95,000 boe/daySustain production and completesmall-scale facility sour conversion and optimization project at Parkland/Tower
Greater Dawson
Kakwa
Note: Well counts denote wells drilled in calendar year; number of wells with completions activities in calendar year may vary.(1) Assets acquired through the Business Combination with Seven Generations Energy Ltd., which closed on April 6, 2021.(2) Free Funds Flow is a non-GAAP measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.
Asset Overview
16
Greater Dawson Overview
Low reinvestment rates and strong lower Montney liquids performance driving significant free funds flow5 generation
Overview
Production1
91 Mboe/day (22% liquids)Land position149,800 net acres (97% W.I.)
Low break-evens2
Dawson & Parkland$0.26/Mcf to $0.39/Mcf
Large resource
Drilling inventory3 4
>1,200 locationsYears to sustain~20 years
Significant optionality
Integrated infrastructure allows ARC to prioritize wells based on return on investment and prevailing commodity prices
Snapshot
Tower
Parkland
Dawson
Phase I & IIGas Plants
Phase III & IVGas Plants
Phase I & IIGas Plants
``Pembina & EnbridgeTCPLParkland-Dawson Interconnect Pipeline
(1) Represents results for the three months ended June 30, 2021.(2) Break-even prices are at Cdn$/Mcf AECO. Break-even analysis is run on a single commodity and is defined as the price at which NPV10 is equal to zero.(3) Comprises approximately 20 per cent of 2P booked undeveloped locations and approximately 80 per cent of internal inventory estimates.(4) Subject to change based on technology and economic environment.(5) Free Funds Flow is a non-GAAP measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.
17
(1) Sunrise facilities expansion of 40 MMcf/day was brought on-stream in May 2021.(2) Comprises approximately 25 per cent of 2P booked undeveloped locations and approximately 75 per cent of internal inventory estimates.(3) Subject to change based on technology and economic environment.
Snapshot
Sunrise Overview
Lowest-cost dry natural gas play in North America
Overview
Production1
~280 MMcf/dayOptimally positioned forLNG supply
Low cost structure
Operating expense~$0.20/McfFinding and development cost~$0.35/Mcf
Efficient resource
Land position23,100 net acres (93% W.I.)Drilling inventory2 3
400 locations
Environmental performanceElectrified facility and field drive ultra-low emissions profileUp to five layers of development significantly reduces footprint
Phase I & IIGas Plants
Coastal GasLink
18
Kakwa Overview
Premium condensate-rich and high-deliverability natural gas play that generates significant free funds flow2
AlliancePembina
NGTL
Snapshot
KarrFacility
LatorGas Plant
PembinaKakwa River
CutbankGas Plant
Overview
Production1
173 Mboe/day (58% liquids)Land position493,100 net acres (99% W.I.)
Near-term objective
Integrate asset into portfolio and focus on realizing immediate operations, drilling, and completions synergies
Capital efficiencyand decline rate
Focus on improving capital efficiencies and reducing decline rate of 40% by ~2% per year
Right-size transportation contractsAlign transportation levels with physical transportation needs to increase free funds flow2
(1) Represents results for the three months ended June 30, 2021.(2) Free Funds Flow is a non-GAAP measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.
Gold CreekGas Plant
19
2-26Gas Plant
10-7Gas Plant
10-36Gas Plant
Ante Creek Overview
Highly profitable, stable light oil development generating significant free funds flow3
Snapshot
Overview
Production1
17 Mboe/day (50% liquids)Land position122,000 net acres (100% W.I.)
Stable cash flows
Balanced commodity mix and moderate decline ratesBreak-even2
US$20/bbl
Efficiencyevolution
Well and pad design improvements are delivering strong capital efficiencies and enhanced profitability
Optimizing infrastructure
Leveraging 2020 facility expansion to efficiently grow free funds flow3 profile
(1) Represents results for the three months ended June 30, 2021.(2) Break-even prices are at US$/bbl WTI. Break-even analysis is run on a single commodity and is defined as the price at which NPV10 is equal to zero.(3) Free Funds Flow is a non-GAAP measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.
20
Attachie Overview
Attachie is the premier development opportunity within ARC’s portfolio
Snapshot
4-20Battery
Phase IGas Plant
PembinaNorth Montney Mainline
(1) Represents results for the three months ended June 30, 2021. ARC has been conducting piloting activities in Attachie West in advance of the planned sanctioning of Attachie West Phase I.(2) Total Petroleum Initially-in-Place as of December 31, 2018.(3) Comprises approximately two per cent of 2P booked undeveloped locations and approximately 98 per cent of internal inventory estimates.(4) Subject to change based on technology and economic environment.
Overview
Pilot production1
4.4 Mboe/day (54% liquids)
Significant resource
Resource in place2
8.9 Bbbl of liquids32 Tcf of gas
Development potentialLand position202,000 net acres (99% W.I.)Drilling inventory3 4
>1,500 locations
DelineationcompletePiloting activities have set the stage for efficient execution of large-scale development
21
Attachie West Phase I Design
Subject to Board approval, ARC is ready to sanction Attachie West Phase I once its debt reduction targets are met
TotalProcessing
Capacity
40 Mboe/day
Condensate and NGLs Processing
Capacity
25 Mbbl/day
Natural GasProcessing
Capacity
90 MMcf/day
Forecasted Capital Investment
(2022 to 2023)
~$600 million
Targeted Sanction Date: Q4 2021Targeted On-stream Date: Q3 2023
22
Attachie West Phase I Forecasted Cash Flow Profile
Once on-stream, Attachie West Phase I is expected to generate free funds flow2 of $250 million annually
(1) Economics run at US$55/bbl WTI and US$2.75/MMBtu NYMEX Henry Hub flat pricing.(2) Netback is a non-GAAP measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.(3) Free Funds Flow is a non-GAAP measure that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. Refer to the Advisory Statements to this presentation.
-35,000
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,0 00
10, 000
15, 000
20, 000
25, 000
30, 000
35, 000
40, 000
45, 000
($300,000,000)
($200,000,000)
($100,000,000)
$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
2021
F
2022
F
2023
F
2024
F
2025
F
2026
F
2027
F
2028
F
2029
F
2030
F
Netback1 2
Capital ExpendituresFree Funds Flow1 3
Production
23
Network of Owned-and-operated Infrastructure
Owned-and-operated infrastructure affords greater optionality and control over cost structure
Combined network of owned-and-operated infrastructure
+ Natural gas processing and sales capacity of 1.5 Bcf/day
+ Ability to optimize larger portfolio, which has access to downstream markets across North America
Benefits of owned-and-operated infrastructure
+ Lowers cost structure and increases funds from operations
+ Provides ability to manage production based upon prevailing commodity prices to optimize revenues
+ Retains economics of facility optimization projects
24
ARC’s ESG Excellence
ARC scores amongst the best in the world for environmental, social, and governance performance
AfricaAsiaCanadaEurope
Middle EastLatin America
RussiaUnited States
Global oil and gas companies’ relative ESG rankings1 2
(1) Source: BMO Capital Markets; CSRHub; Bloomberg (January 2021).(2) ARC scores represented are prior to the acquisition of Seven Generations Energy Ltd., which closed on April 6, 2021.
ARC
40
46
52
58
64
38 46 54 62 70
Soci
al a
nd G
over
nanc
e Sc
ore
Environmental Score
25
Strong Performance across Key ESG Factors
ARC’s ESG commitment leads to joint stakeholder and shareholder benefits
Environmental Social Governance
(1) Results represented are prior to the acquisition of Seven Generations Energy Ltd., which closed on April 6, 2021.
Environmental Social Governance
Emissions performance1
+ Lowest GHG emissions intensity amongst Canadian upstream E&P companies
+ “A-” score by CDP for Climate Change disclosure and performance
Safety+ #1 corporate priority+ Absolute focus on workplace safety for
employees and contractors
Executive compensation1
+ 95% shareholder approval of ARC’s 2021 “say on pay” advisory vote
+ Majority of executive pay “at risk” and tied to medium- and long-term share price and ESG performance
Water usage1
+ Responsibly manage water usage in operations
+ 90% of water used on ARC’s legacy assets is recycled
+ “B” score by CDP for Water Security
Diversity and inclusion+ 30% Club and Bloomberg Gender-
Equality Index member+ 25% of executive team and 36% of
directors are female
Jantzi Social Index constituent
Board of Directors+ 9 of 11 directors are independent+ >98% average shareholder approval
rating in 2021
Minimizing the environmental impact of resource development
Stakeholder benefits across all aspects of the business
Governance principles aligned to shareholder values
26
Base Production Future Development Projects
ARC’s Resource and Scalability Potential
ARC has decades’ worth of premium drilling locations with commodity and geographic optionality
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Attachie GreaterDawson
Kakwa Sundown AnteCreek
Sunrise Septimus
Drilling locations by area1 2
(1) Comprises 2P booked undeveloped locations and internal inventory estimates.(2) Subject to change based on technology and economic environment.
2020
Resource potential
Additional Information
28
Natural Gas Financial and Physical Price Management
$2.07 $2.26$2.94 $3.19 $3.37
($0.15) ($0.10) ($0.06)
$1.41
($0.03)
$0.11 $0.02
($0.06)($0.21) ($0.18)
$2.03 $2.18$2.82
$4.39
$3.16
(1.00)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Cdn
$/M
cf
Well-diversified North American natural gas exposure increases optionality
Diversification Activities
Realized Gain (Loss) onRisk Management Contracts
Average Price before Diversification Activities
Dawn Floating
Malin Floating
Henry Hub Floating
Midwest US Floating
Hedged
WCSB Floating
WCSB demand and export capacity growth1 Natural gas realizations2 and diversification3 4
NGTL East Gate Capacity+1.3 Bcf/day by 2022
Intra-Alberta Demand+1.5 Bcf/day by 2025
LNG Canada Phase 1+2.1 Bcf/day by 2025
Enbridge T-South Capacity+0.2 Bcf/day by 2021
NGTL West Gate Capacity+0.3 Bcf/day by 2023
5.4 Bcf/day Demand & Export CapacityGrowth Expected by 2025
(1) Source: ARC Risk Research, TC Energy, Enbridge Inc., company reports.(2) Realized gain (loss) on risk management contracts is not included in ARC’s realized natural gas price.(3) Diversification based on internal volume and marketing assumptions, adjusted for ARC’s heat content.(4) “Hedged” includes all physical and financial fixed price swaps, collars, and 3-ways.
41%31%
15%7%
14%21%
38%41%
30%24% 15%
16%
6% 14% 15%
7% 9% 9% 12%
8% 9% 9% 9%
Bal 2021 2022 2023 20240%
25%
50%
75%
100%
% o
f Tot
al P
rodu
ctio
n
29
Canadian Condensate Market
• Heavy reliance on imported volumes from the US results in Canadian condensate trading within a very tight range to WTI
Continued reliance on imported condensate volumes is constructive for Canadian condensate pricing
(1) Source: Bloomberg.(2) Source: ARC Risk Research, Alberta Energy Regulator, BC Oil and Gas Commission, Crude Oil Logistics Committee.(3) Forecast includes the impact of GEI/USD Diluent Recovery Unit assuming 2021 on-stream date.
• WCSB condensate demand is expected to stay well in excess of local supply for the foreseeable future
US$/bbl
Crude oil and condensate pricing1
Mbbl/day
WCSB condensate supply and demand2 3
0
20
40
60
80
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
WTI Condensate WCS
0
200
400
600
800
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F
WCSB Condensate Supply Imports Required WCSB Condensate Demand
30
Cash Flow Protection
Well-hedged with a long-term focus on reducing downside risk in funds from operations and creating certainty in cash flows
Mbbl/day, %
Crude oil and condensate production hedged1
MMBtu/day, %
Natural gas production hedged1
(1) Positions as at June 30, 2021.
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
0
12
24
36
48
Q3 2021 Q4 2021 2022
Production Hedged % Hedged
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
0
180,000
360,000
540,000
720,000
Q3 2021 Q4 2021 2022
Production Hedged % Hedged
31
Risk Management Contracts Positions at June 30, 20211 2
Q3 2021 to Q4 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025Crude Oil – WTI US$/bbl bbl/day US$/bbl bbl/day US$/bbl bbl/day US$/bbl bbl/day US$/bbl bbl/dayCeiling 53.66 23,500 58.91 21,767 62.35 12,000 55.82 1,243 - -Floor 45.82 23,500 48.45 21,767 51.25 12,000 50.00 1,243 - -Sold Floor 40.84 8,000 40.11 11,767 45.00 5,000 - - - -Swap 48.30 19,750 46.90 10,479 48.99 863 - - - -Total Crude Oil Volumes (bbl/day) 43,250 32,246 12,863 1,243 -
Natural Gas – NYMEX Henry Hub3 US$/MMBtu MMBtu/day US$/MMBtu MMBtu/day US$/MMBtu MMBtu/day US$/MMBtu MMBtu/day US$/MMBtu MMBtu/dayCeiling 3.13 210,054 3.13 119,932 3.02 60,000 2.74 10,000 - -Floor 2.60 210,054 2.60 119,932 2.55 60,000 2.50 10,000 - -Sold Floor 2.13 140,000 2.19 85,000 2.17 30,000 2.10 10,000 - -Swap 2.57 205,000 2.53 144,959 2.53 52,068 - - - -Natural Gas – AECO 7A Cdn$/GJ GJ/day Cdn$/GJ GJ/day Cdn$/GJ GJ/day Cdn$/GJ GJ/day Cdn$/GJ GJ/dayCeiling 2.41 120,000 2.52 160,000 2.42 95,863 2.40 90,000 2.73 20,000Floor 1.95 120,000 1.99 160,000 1.88 95,863 1.87 90,000 2.00 20,000Sold Floor - - 1.75 20,000 - - - - - -Swap 2.29 80,054 2.23 20,000 2.06 10,000 2.06 10,000 - -Sold Call 4.50 3,315 4.50 2,466 - - - - - -Sold Swaption - - 2.00 20,000 - - - - - -Total Natural Gas Volumes (MMBtu/day) 604,669 435,497 212,407 104,782 18,956
Natural Gas – AECO Basis(Differential to NYMEX Henry Hub) US$/MMBtu MMBtu/day US$/MMBtu MMBtu/day US$/MMBtu MMBtu/day US$/MMBtu MMBtu/day US$/MMBtu MMBtu/day
Sold Swap (0.94) 68,342 (0.88) 35,000 (0.91) 70,000 (0.91) 70,000 (0.65) 50,000Total AECO Basis Volumes (MMBtu/day) 68,342 35,000 70,000 70,000 50,000
Natural Gas – Other Basis(Differential to NYMEX Henry Hub) MMBtu/day MMBtu/day MMBtu/day MMBtu/day MMBtu/day
Sold Swap 155,000 152,438 89,918 4,973 -
Foreign ExchangeNotional
(US$ millions)Rate
(Cdn$/US$)Notional
(US$ millions)Rate
(Cdn$/US$)Notional
(US$ millions)Rate
(Cdn$/US$)Notional
(US$ millions)Rate
(Cdn$/US$)Notional
(US$ millions)Rate
(Cdn$/US$)US$ Forward Sale
Swap 128.6 1.3351 116.1 1.3165 - - - - - -Ceiling 30.8 1.3093 69.9 1.3078 48.0 1.3070 - - - -Floor 30.8 1.3441 69.9 1.3562 48.0 1.3602 - - - -
US$ Forward PurchaseCeiling4 10.0 1.2549 - - - - - - - -Floor4 10.0 1.3000 - - - - - - - -
(1) The prices and volumes in this table represent averages for several contracts representing different periods. The average price for the portfolio of options listed above does not have the same payoff profile as the individual option contracts. Viewing the average price of a group of options is purely for indicative purposes. All positions arefinancially settled against the benchmark prices.
(2) ARC has also entered into crude oil differential swaps with a fair value deficiency of $(3.0) million and NGLs location differential swaps with a fair value deficiency of $(0.1) million.(3) Natural gas prices referenced to NYMEX Henry Hub Last Day Settlement.(4) Variable rate collar expiring August 23, 2021, whereby if the Cdn$/US$ spot rate is below $1.2825 at expiry, the ceiling will re-adjust to $1.3000.
32
Asset Details
Commodity and geographic diversity across asset portfolio provides optionality
(1) Denote Montney sections and acreage only.
Greater Dawson Sunrise Kakwa Ante Creek Attachie
Net production – Q2 2021Crude oil & liquids (bbl/day)Natural gas (MMcf/day)Total (boe/day)
19,972427.5
91,219
43259.2
43,242
99,952437.6
172,890
8,46153.2
17,331
2,38012.2
4,418
Land1
Net sectionsNet acresWorking interest
231149,800
~97%
3623,100~93%
771493,100
~99%
191122,000~100%
308202,000
~99%
PDP Reserves (MMboe)Liquids (MMbbl)Gas (Bcf)
13926.5679
66-
394
259141.2
708
2211.1
67
73.320
33
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
YTD
Net Debt (LHS)
Annualized Funds from Operations (LHS)
Net Debt to Annualized Funds from Operations (RHS)
Historical Performance
ARC has managed a profitable business through all commodity price cycleswith its efficient Montney assets, capital discipline, and strong balance sheet
(1) Net Debt presented for 2021 onwards excludes lease obligations. Refer to the “Capital Management” note in ARC’s financial statements.(2) Dividends as a per cent of funds from operations calculated as dividends before Dividend Reinvestment Plan and Stock Dividend Program.
Mboe/day
Production$ billions, ratio
Net debt1 to FFO$ billions, % of FFO
Dividends2
0%
30%
60%
90%
120%
0
2
4
6
8
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
YTD
Cumulative Dividend (LHS)
Dividends as a % of Funds from Operations (RHS)
0
70
140
210
280
350
199
6 1
997
199
8 1
999
200
0 2
001
200
2 2
003
200
4 2
005
200
6 2
007
200
8 2
009
201
0 2
011
201
2 2
013
201
4 2
015
201
6 2
017
201
8 2
019
202
0 2
021
YTD
Montney Natural Gas (boe/day)
Non-Montney Natural Gas (boe/day)
Montney Crude Oil & Liquids (bbl/day)
Non-Montney Crude Oil & Liquids (bbl/day)
34
ESG Recognitions and Rankings1 2
View ARC’s 2020 ESG Report at www.arcresources.com/responsibility
(1) ARC recognitions and rankings represented are prior to the acquisition of Seven Generations Energy Ltd., which closed on April 6, 2021.(2) ESG recognitions and rankings as of April 30, 2021.
Member of MSCI Global Sustainability IndexMSCI ESG Rating: AAA
Voluntary participant since 20072020 Climate Change Score: A-2020 Water Security Score: B
Environment Score: 4Social Score: 3Governance Score: 7
Score: 31 – High (60th Percentile)
Member of Sustainalytics’ Jantzi Social Index
Member of Bloomberg’s Gender-Equality Index since 2021
Member of the 30% Club since 2018
Member of FTSE Russell’s FTSE4Good Index Series since 2018
Advisory Statements
36
Advisory StatementsNotes Regarding Forward-looking InformationThis presentation contains certain forward-looking statements and forward-looking information (collectively referred to as "forward-looking information") within the meaning of applicable securities legislation about currentexpectations about the future, based on certain assumptions made by ARC. Although ARC believes that the expectations represented by such forward-looking information are reasonable, there can be no assurance that suchexpectations will prove to be correct. Forward-looking information in this presentation is identified by words such as "anticipate", "believe", "ongoing", "may", "expect", "estimate", "plan", "will", "project", "continue", "target","strategy", "upholding", or similar expressions and includes suggestions of future outcomes. In particular, but without limiting the foregoing, this presentation contains forward-looking information with respect to: estimatedproduction amounts and quantities thereof; the expectations with respect to the integration of Seven Generations; the anticipated annual synergies for 2022 and the sources thereof; expected capital expenditures for 2021; thecontinued integration of Seven Generations' ESG initiatives; plans to publish ARC's 2020 ESG performance data and highlights in the third quarter of 2021; the anticipated reduction in net debt excluding lease obligations; thecontinued assessment of dividends and the payment thereof; plans to maintain capital discipline to maximize profitability and preserve a strong financial position and plans to uphold a strong safety culture and advance its ESGleadership and performance; plans to sustain production at Greater Dawson, Sunrise, Kakwa, and Ante Creek; the Company's guidance estimates; the continued allocation of capital where risk-adjusted return are greatest; plansto evaluate return of capital measures with excess free funds flow; and other statements.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking information as ARC's actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. ARC undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information except as required by law. Developing forward-looking information involves reliance on a number of assumptions and consideration of certain risks and uncertainties, some of which are specific to ARC andothers that apply to the industry generally. Material factors or assumptions on which the forward-looking information in this presentation include: ARC's ability to successfully integrate the business of Seven Generations EnergyLtd.; access to sufficient capital to pursue any development plans; ARC's ability to issue securities; the impacts the acquisition of Seven Generations Energy Ltd. may have on the current credit ratings of ARC; forecastcommodity prices and other pricing assumptions; forecast production volumes based on business and market conditions; the accuracy of outlooks and projections contained herein; projected capital investment levels, theflexibility of capital spending plans, and associated sources of funding; achievement of further cost reductions and sustainability thereof; applicable royalty regimes, including expected royalty rates; future improvements inavailability of product transportation capacity; opportunity for ARC to pay dividends and the approval and declaration of such dividends by the board of directors of ARC; cash flows, cash balances on hand, and access to ARC'scredit facility being sufficient to fund capital investments; foreign exchange rates; near-term pricing and continued volatility of the market; the ability of ARC's existing pipeline commitments and financial hedge transactions topartially mitigate a portion of ARC's risks against wider price differentials; estimates of quantities of crude oil, natural gas, and liquids from properties and other sources not currently classified as proved; accounting estimates andjudgments; future use and development of technology and associated expected future results; ARC's ability to obtain necessary regulatory approvals; the successful and timely implementation of capital projects or stages thereof;the ability to generate sufficient cash flow to meet current and future obligations; estimated abandonment and reclamation costs, including associated levies and regulations applicable thereto; ARC's ability to obtain and retainqualified staff and equipment in a timely and cost-efficient manner; ARC's ability to carry out transactions on the desired terms and within the expected timelines; forecast inflation and other assumptions inherent in the guidanceof ARC; the retention of key assets; the continuance of existing tax, royalty, and regulatory regimes; the accuracy of the estimates of each of ARC's and Seven Generations Energy Ltd.’s reserve volumes; ARC's ability to accessand implement all technology necessary to efficiently and effectively operate its assets; the ongoing impact of COVID-19 on commodity prices and the global economy; and other risks and uncertainties described from time totime in the filings made by ARC with securities regulatory authorities.
The forward-looking information in this presentation also includes financial outlooks and other related forward-looking information (including production and financial-related metrics) relating to ARC, including: the expectations ofARC regarding free funds flow, free funds flow yield, net debt excluding lease obligations, production, funds from operations, net debt to funds from operations, netback, dividends, maintenance capital, available liquidity, capitalinvestments, capital expenditures, returns to shareholders, cash returns, return on average capital employed, expenses and expenditures, and anticipated cost savings. Any financial outlook and forward-looking informationimplied by such forward-looking statements are described in ARC's MD&A, and its most recent annual information form, which are available on ARC's website at www.arcresources.com and under ARC's SEDAR profile atwww.sedar.com and are incorporated by reference herein.
37
Advisory StatementsBasis of PreparationAll financial figures and information have been prepared in Canadian dollars (which includes references to “dollars” and “$”), except where another currency has been indicated, and in accordance with International FinancialReporting Standards (“IFRS” or “GAAP”) as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board. Production volumes are presented on a before royalties basis.
Non-GAAP MeasuresCertain financial measures in this presentation do not have a standardized meaning as prescribed by IFRS, such as free funds flow, free funds flow yield, return on average capital employed (“ROACE”), and netback, andtherefore are considered non-GAAP measures. See the “Capital Management” note of ARC's unaudited condensed interim consolidated financial statements as at and for the three months ended March 31, 2021 for furtherinformation on other measures contained in this presentation including funds from operations and net debt. These measures may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. These measures have beendescribed and presented in order to provide shareholders, potential investors, and analysts with additional measures for analyzing ARC. This additional information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute formeasures prepared in accordance with IFRS.
Free Funds Flow and Free Funds Flow Yield
Management uses free funds flow as a measure of the efficiency and liquidity of its business, measuring its funds available for capital investment to manage debt levels, pay dividends, and return capital to shareholders. TheCompany computes free funds flow as funds from operations generated during the period less capital expenditures before undeveloped land purchases and property acquisitions and dispositions and free funds flow yield bydividing free funds flow per share by the market price per share. By removing the impact of current period capital expenditures from funds from operations, Management believes this measure provides an indication to investorsand shareholders of the funds the Company has available for future capital allocation decisions.
Netback
ARC calculates netback on a total and per boe basis as commodity sales from production less royalties, operating, and transportation expense. ARC discloses netback both before and after the effect of realized gain or loss onrisk management contracts. Realized gain or loss represent the portion of risk management contracts that have settled in cash during the period and disclosing this impact provides Management and investors with transparentmeasures that reflect how ARC’s risk management program can impact its netback. Management believes that netback is a key industry benchmark and a measure of performance for ARC that provides investors withinformation that is commonly used by other oil and gas producers. The measurement on a per boe basis assists Management with evaluating operational performance on a comparable basis.
Return on Average Capital Employed
ARC calculates ROACE, expressed as a percentage, as net income (loss) plus interest and total income tax expense (recovery) divided by the average of the opening and closing capital employed for the 12 months precedingperiod end. Capital employed is the total of net debt plus shareholders’ equity. ROACE since inception is the annual average net income (loss) plus interest and total income tax expense (recovery) for the years 1996 to 2020divided by the average of the opening and closing capital employed over the same period. Refer to the “Capital Management” note in ARC’s financial statements for additional discussion on net debt. ARC uses ROACE as ameasure of long-term operational performance, to measure how effectively Management utilizes the capital it has been provided and to demonstrate to shareholders the sustainability of its business model and that capital hasbeen invested profitably over the long term.
Barrels of Oil EquivalentNatural gas volumes have been converted to barrels of oil equivalent (“boe”) on the basis of six thousand cubic feet (“Mcf”) to one barrel (“bbl”). Boe may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A conversion ratio of 6 Mcf:1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oilcompared with natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency conversion ratio of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis is not an accurate reflection of value.
Throughout this presentation, crude oil refers to tight, light, medium, and heavy crude oil product types as defined by National Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101”). Natural gas refersto shale gas and conventional natural gas product types as defined by NI 51-101. ARC’s production of conventional natural gas is considered to be immaterial. ARC’s core producing properties that are considered to be shalegas include Attachie, Dawson, Parkland (including parts of Tower), and Sunrise, and as such, natural gas, condensate, and natural gas liquids (“NGLs”) are disclosed. ARC’s core producing properties that are considered to betight oil include Ante Creek and parts of Tower, and as such, crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs are disclosed. ARC’s core producing property that is considered to be light crude oil is Pembina, and as such, crude oil, natural gas,and NGLs are disclosed. NGLs for Kakwa refer to natural gas liquids, except for condensate, which is reported separately. Natural gas for Kakwa refers to conventional natural gas and shale gas combined.
Throughout this presentation, when condensate is disclosed, it is done so as it is the product type that is measured at the first point of sale. As per the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation (“COGE”) Handbook, condensate is a by-product of the NGLs product type. NGLs by-products include ethane, butane, propane, and pentanes-plus (condensate).
38
Advisory StatementsInformation Regarding Disclosure on Oil and Gas Reserves, Resources, and Other Oil and Gas MetricsUnless otherwise specified, all reserves estimates disclosed in this presentation are derived from ARC's independent reserve evaluation prepared by GLJ Ltd. (“GLJ”) dated January 29, 2021, evaluating the crude oil, naturalgas, natural gas liquids, and sulphur reserves attributable to ARC's properties as of December 31, 2020 (the “Reserves Report”), and all resources estimates disclosed in this presentation are derived from ARC's independentevaluation prepared by GLJ of ARC's lands in the Montney region, including Dawson, Parkland/Tower, Sunrise/Sunset, Sundown, Septimus, Attachie, Red Creek, and Mica in northeast British Columbia, and Pouce Coupe andAnte Creek in Alberta as of December 31, 2018. The reserve and resource estimates contained herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves or resources will be recovered. Actual crude oil,natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates that are provided herein. ARC's belief that it will establish additional reserves over time with conversion of resources into reserves andprobable undeveloped reserves into proved reserves are forward-looking statements and are based on certain assumptions and is subject to certain risks, as discussed under the heading “Notes Regarding Forward-lookingInformation” and in ARC's annual information form for the year ended December 31, 2018, dated March 14, 2019.
This presentation references “Total Petroleum Initially-In-Place” or “TPIIP”. TPIIP, as defined in the COGE Handbook, is that quantity of petroleum that is estimated to exist in naturally occurring accumulations. It includes thatquantity of petroleum that is estimated, as of a given date, to be contained in known accumulations, prior to production, plus those estimated quantities in accumulations yet to be discovered. A portion of the TPIIP is consideredundiscovered and there is no certainty that any portion of such undiscovered resources will be discovered. If discovered, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of such undiscoveredresources. With respect to the portion of the TPIIP that is considered discovered resources, there is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of such discovered resources. A significant portion of theestimated volumes of TPIIP will never be recovered.
This presentation discloses ARC's expectations of future drilling inventory or locations. While certain of these estimated drilling locations may be consistent with “booked” drilling locations identified in the Reserves Report, ashaving associated proved and/or probable reserves, other locations are considered “unbooked” as they have no associated proved and/or probable reserves in the Reserves Report or any associated resources other thanreserves. All drilling locations have been presented on a net basis. Unbooked locations are generated by internal estimates of Management based on prospective acreage and an assumption as to the number of wells that canbe drilled per section based on industry practice and internal review. Unbooked locations do not have attributed reserves or resources. Unbooked locations have been identified by Management as an estimation of the multi-yeardrilling activities based on evaluation of applicable geologic, seismic, engineering, historic drilling, production, commodity price assumptions, and reserves information. There is no certainty that all unbooked drilling locations willbe drilled, and if drilled, there is no certainty that such locations will result in additional oil and gas reserves, resources, or production. The drilling locations on which wells are actually drilled will ultimately depend upon the capitalallocation decisions of royalty payors who have working interests in respect of such drilling locations and a number of other factors including, without limitation, availability of capital, regulatory approvals, crude oil and natural gasprices, costs, actual drilling results, additional reservoir information that is obtained, and other factors. While certain of the unbooked drilling locations have been de-risked by drilling existing wells in relative close proximity tosuch unbooked drilling locations, other unbooked drilling locations are farther away from existing wells, where Management has less information about the characteristics of the reservoir and therefore there is more uncertaintywhether wells will be drilled in such locations, and if drilled, there is more uncertainty that such wells will result in additional crude oil and natural gas reserves, resources, or production.
This presentation contains certain oil and gas metrics, including finding and development costs (or “F&D costs”) and reserves life index (or “years to sustain”) which do not have standardized meanings or standard methods ofcalculation and therefore such measures may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies and should not be used to make comparisons. These metrics have been included herein to provide readers withadditional measures to evaluate the Company's performance; however, such measures are not reliable indicators of the future performance of the Company and future performance may not compare to the performance inprevious periods and therefore such metrics should not be unduly relied upon. F&D costs are calculated by dividing the sum of the total capital expenditures for the year, in dollars, by the change in reserves within the applicablereserves category, in boe. F&D costs, including future development costs (“FDC”), includes all capital expenditures in the year as well as the change in FDC required to bring the reserves, within the specified reserves category,on production. F&D costs take into account reserves revisions and capital expenditure revisions during the year. The aggregate of the costs incurred in the financial year and changes during that year in estimated FDC may notreflect total F&D costs related to reserves additions for that year. Management uses F&D costs as a measure of its ability to execute its capital program, the success in doing so, and of ARC's asset quality. Reserves life index or“years to sustain” are calculated by dividing the reserves (in boe) in the referenced category by the midpoint of the production guidance (in boe) for the following year. Management uses this measure to determine how long thebooked reserves will last at current production rates if no further reserves were added
39
Advisory StatementsAdvisory – Credit RatingsCredit ratings are intended to provide investors with an independent measure of credit quality of an issue of securities. Credit ratings are not recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell securities and do not address the marketprice or suitability of a specific security for a particular investor. There is no assurance that any rating will remain in effect for any given period of time or that any rating will not be revised or withdrawn entirely by the rating agencyin the future if, in its judgment, circumstances so warrant.
Third-party InformationThis presentation includes market, industry and economic data which was obtained from various publicly available sources and other sources believed by ARC to be true. Although ARC believes it to be reliable, it has notindependently verified any of the data from third party sources referred to in this presentation or analyzed or verified the underlying reports relied upon or referred to by such sources or ascertained the underlying economic andother assumptions relied upon by such sources. ARC believes that its market, industry and economic data is accurate and that its estimates and assumptions are reasonable, but there can be no assurance as to the accuracy orcompleteness thereof. The accuracy and completeness of the market, industry and economic data used throughout this presentation are not guaranteed and ARC makes no representation as to the accuracy of such information.
40
Investor Relations Contacts
Visit ARC’s website at www.arcresources.com and ARC’s SEDAR profile at www.sedar.com
Kris Bibby
Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
403.503.8675
Martha Wilmot
Senior Investor Relations Advisor
403.509.7280
Dale Lewko
Manager, Capital Markets
403.503.8696
General Investor Relations Enquiries
403.503.8600
1.888.272.4900