How People Harness Their Collective Wisdom and Power

to Create the Future

Alexander N. Christakis, PhD

President, Institute for 21st Century Agoras

www.GlobalAgoras.org

Alexander N. ChristakisInformation Age / February 2006

How People Harness Their Collective Wisdom and

Power to Construct the Future

in Co-Laboratories of Democracy

The Historic Challenge

"I would not give a whit for the simplicity this side of complexity, but I would give my life for the simplicity on the far side

of complexity." 

O. W. Holmes

Three Fundamental Premisesfor Participative Democracy

True dialogue is essential for participative democracy;

True dialogue is difficult in the Information Age – complexity demands that we address issues collaboratively, systematically, and systemically; and

To address Information Age issues systemically, we need the support of the processes developed through the Science of Dialogic Design.

Three Axioms of the Science of Dialogic Design

No single observer has the complete picture of complex problems;

Everyone has limits for the amount of information they can process at any one time; and

In order to make judgments, we need to compare similar things.

Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic Design

Nominal Group Technique; Interpretive Structural Modeling; DELPHI; Options Field; Options Profile; and Trade-off Analysis.

Consensus Methods _ 1972 through 1982

Elemental observation; Problematique; Influence tree pattern; Options field pattern; Options profile/scenario pattern; Superposition pattern; and Action plan pattern.

Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic Design

Language Patterns _ 1970 through 1989

Discovery; Designing; and Action.

Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic Design

Application Time Phases _ 1989 through 2001

Context – Inquiry Design Team; Content – Stakeholder/Designers; and Process – Facilitation Team

Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic Design

Key Role Responsibilities _ 1982 through 2002

Definition or Anticipation; Design of Alternatives; Decision; and Action Planning.

Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic DesignStages of Interactive Inquiry _ 1989 through 1995

Collaborative Space Collaborative Software

Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic DesignSupportive Technology _ 1981 through 1995

RequisiteVariety (RequisiteVariety (AshbyAshby);); Requisite Parsimony (Requisite Parsimony (MillerMiller);); Requisite Saliency (Requisite Saliency (BouldingBoulding);); Meaning and Wisdom (Meaning and Wisdom (PeircePeirce);); Authenticity and Autonomy (Authenticity and Autonomy (TsivacouTsivacou); and ); and Evolutionary Learning (Evolutionary Learning (DyeDye) )

Milestone in the Evolution of theScience of Dialogic Design

Dialogue Laws _ 2001 through 2003

Requisite Evolutionary Learning and the Erroneous Priorities Effect

Whenever observations made by stakeholders in the context of a complex designing situation are interdependent, assigning priorities for action on the basis of aggregating individual stakeholder “importance voting” leads to the erroneous priorities effect and to ineffective actions. The effective priorities for action emerge after an evolutionary inquiry of the interdependencies among the observations through a dialogue focusing on “influence voting.”

Evolutionary Learningand the Erroneous Priorities Effect

Progressive Evaluations of theIntent Structure of GRP Goals

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Goal Label

Infl

uen

ce

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Weig

hte

d V

oti

ng

Influence Rating Weighted 2 Weighted 1

Components of the Science Operational in Designing Phase

Steps in each Stage of InquiryComplexSituation

ArticulateObservations

ClarifyMeaning

ClusterInductively

Frame andFocus on aTriggeringQuestion

?DevelopShared

Language

Vote &Rank

StructureAbductively

EvaluateCross-Impact

InterpretLearning

Interactive Management Consultants

Class

Label

Type A Type CType B

Copyright © 1999 - All Rights Reserved

Influence

(a) (b) (c) (d) (e)

(f) (g) (h) (i) (j)

Some Graphic Language Patterns of the Science

The Six Dialogue Laws

Ashby's Law of Requisite Variety

APPRECIATION OF THE DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVES OF OBSERVERS

The Six Dialogue Laws

Miller's Law of Requisite Parsimony

STRUCTURED DIALOGUE IS REQUIRED TO AVOID THE COGNITIVE OVERLOAD OF OBSERVERS

The Six Dialogue Laws

Boulding's Law of Requisite Saliency

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF OBSERVATIONS CAN ONLY BE UNDERSTOOD THROUGH COMPARISONS WITHIN AN ORGANIZED SET

The Six Dialogue Laws Peirce's Law of Requisite Meaning

MEANING AND WISDOM ARE PRODUCED IN A DIALOGUE ONLY WHEN THE OBSERVERS SEARCH FOR RELATIONSHIPS OF SIMILARITY, PRIORITY, INFLUENCE, etc. WITHIN A SET OF OBSERVATIONS

The Six Dialogue Laws Tsivacou's Law of Requisite Autonomy in

Distinction-Making

DURING DIALOGUE IT IS NECESSARY TO PROTECT THE AUTONOMY AND AUTHENTICITY OF EACH OBSERVER IN DRAWING DISTINCTIONS

The Six Dialogue Laws

Dye's Law of Requisite Evolutionary Learning

LEARNING OCCURS IN A DIALOGUE AS THE OBSERVERS SEARCH FOR INFLUENCE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THE MEMBERS OF A SET OF OBSERVATIONS

Influence Voting Question• “Supposing that in a dialogue on a complex

Information Age issue the participants were able to implement:

• (PRINCIPLE A: DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVES) 

• Will this SIGNIFICANTLY enhance their capacity to implement:

• (PRINCIPLE B: STRUCTURED DIALOGUE)• ?”

Influence Voting Question• “Supposing that in a dialogue on a complex

Information Age issue the participants were able to implement:

• (PRINCIPLE B: STRUCTURED DIALOGUE)  

• Will this SIGNIFICANTLY enhance their capacity to implement:

• (PRINCIPLE A: DIVERSITY OF PERSPECTIVES)

• ?”

A Tree of Meaning

MEANING AND WISDOM

UNDERSTANDING IMPORTANCE

APPRECIATION OF DIVERSITY

LEARNING

AUTONOMY

STRUCTURED DIALOGUE

Level I

Level II

Level III

Level IV

Level V

Level VI

Effective Action

Community Co-laboratory of Democracy 

Voting on Relative Importance

Influence Tree of Intentions of the Future of Our Community

(29 - Intention) REEXPLORE IDEAS TO ALLOW ELDERLY MEMBERS TO REMAIN ON THE BG HOMESTEAD

(2 - Intention) MAKE THE TRANSITION FROM OUR EARLY STAGE OF GROWTH (WITH REGARD TO THE PHYSICAL BG) TO ONE OF STEWARDSHIP

(42 - Intention) REUNITE LESS ACTIVE MEMBERS OF OUR COMMUNITY WITH AN INVITATION TO PARTICIPATE ANEW

(10 - Intention) LEARN TO HAVE FUN TOGETHER AS A COMMUNITY

(18 - Intention) USE OUR PAST KNOWLEDGE TO ENLIGHTEN OUR FUTURE PLANNING

(24 - Intention) ACCOMPLISH SOME DEFINITIVE RESOLUTION TO ISSUES THAT SURFACE REPEATEDLY

(26 - Intention) LIVE IN AN ENVIRONMENTALLY SUSTAINABLE MANNER WITHIN THE SOCIETY

(12 - Intention) IDENTIFY WAYS TO IMPROVE OUR DECISION MAKING PROCESS

(1 - Intention) RESTORE THE INTENTIONAL DIVERSITY OF THE COMMUNITY

(21 - Intention) ENCOURAGE MEMBERS TO ACT ON THE SAYING "IT TAKES A VILLAGE TO RAISE A CHILD"

(38 - Intention) IDENTIFY WAYS TO INVOLVE CHILDREN IN DECISION MAKING PROCESS

(9 - Intention) DEVELOP EFFECTIVE WAYS OF RESOLVING DISPUTES SO THAT NO ONE FEELS LIKE A WINNER OR A LOSER

Level II

Level I

Level IV

Level IIIKEY

Accomplishing Intention XSignificantly

Helps in Accomplishing Intention Y

Y

X

Generated by the participants at the Bryn Gweled Community Center – January 11, 2003

Interpretation of Influence Map

What is the Institute for 21st Century Agoras?

  The Institute for 21st Century Agoras is a volunteer-driven organization dedicated to vigorous democracy on the model of that practiced in the agoras of ancient Greece. It employs Co-Laboratories of Democracy that enable civil dialogue in complex situations.

What does Agoras mean?

  The agoras were the vital centers of the Greek cities. Their outdoor markets and convention halls where gossip mixed with politics. The agora of Athens was the birthplace of democracy. Here the town's citizens discussed pressing issues and made decisions on the basis of popular vote.