ARCs Contributions to CTB

NOAA Climate Test Bed

Science Advisory Board

28 August 2007

The NOAA Applied Research Centers (ARCs) conduct mission-oriented applied R&D with stable funding under five-year renewable institutional awards. Each Center has a unique capability to contribute to the NOAA Climate Program’s objectives.

(from CPO: http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/cdep/)

The ARCs collaborate with CTB to accelerate transition of new and improved science-driven climate forecast & analysis products into operations (R2O) with emphasis on specific CPC product ranges (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)

(from CTB Interim Report 2007)

The ARCs are also beginning a new activity to enable the research community to make use of CTB models (O2R)

ARCs: Climate Diagnostics ARC (ESRL/PSD; formerly CDC) COAPS (Florida State U) COLA CSES ARC (U Washington) ECPC (Scripps/U California San Diego) Affiliated centers (IRI, GFDL, GMAO, NCEP)

NOAA Applied Research Centers (ARCs) and CTB

• CFS as a Prediction System and Research Tool Initially being established by NCEP and COLA Will expand to include the broader climate community 12 scheduled through Feb’08 (6 at COLA, 6 at NCEP) Seminars at NCEP will be coordinated with CTB “Test

and Evaluation Team” meetings• Future Foci:

Multi-Model Ensembles Climate forecast product improvements

Example: CTB Seminar Series

Position NOAA to proactively deliver research products and experimental services that provide explanations of current and evolving climate and predictions of future climate and extreme events with drought-related research and applications in support of NIDIS as the near-term priority.

Research is coordinated around five foci that contribute to CDEP objectives.

Reforecasts and Weather-Climate: develop reliable and improve probabilistic short term climate forecast products

Historical Reanalysis: produce a 100-year global climate reanalysis based on surface pressure data using ensemble data assimilation techniques

Climate Attribution: improve climate attribution capabilities to meet policy and decision maker needs for explanations of the climate system.

Climate System Diagnosis: improve understanding of dynamical processes and predictability of the the climate system

Regional Applications and Services: improve delivery of regional climate products and services needed to manage climate-related risks.

Climate Diagnostics ARC

http://www.cdc.noaa.govCourtesy - Robin Webb

Infuse research findings into weekly US Hazards Assessment discussions, monthly US Seasonal Outlooks discussions, ENSO Diagnostics discussions, Drought Monitoring Assessments

Develop advanced techniques for 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks

Develop new tools for NOAA Drought Outlooks

Partner with NOAA RISAs (e.g., WWA, CLIMAS, CIG, & CAP) to develop and deliver experimental regional climate products and services

Created and maintain a web portal where researchers can download the latest operational source code of the National Center for Environmental Prediction's Global Forecast System (GFS) model modified to run in Linux cluster environments. http://code.google.com/p/ncepgfs/Sciences_Division

The Climate Diagnostics ARC complements the Climate Test Bed through scientific advances that improve NOAA climate forecast products and services

http://www.cdc.noaa.govCourtesy - Robin Webb

Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS)

About COAPSAbout COAPS

COAPS is located at Florida State University and was officially formed in August 1996 by the Florida Board of Regents. COAPS has approximately 45 employees (i.e., faculty, scientists, students, and support staff).

Mission StatementMission Statement

To be a center of excellence which promotes interdisciplinary research in air-sea interaction, the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-ice earth system, and climate prediction on scales of weeks to decades in order to increase our understanding of the physical, social, and economical consequences of coupled ocean-atmospheric variations.

Centers/Consortiums within COAPS Centers/Consortiums within COAPS

NOAA Applied Research Center, Research Vessel Data Center, SAMOS Initiative, Florida Climate Center, Southeast Climate Consortium, Northern Gulf of Mexico NOAA Cooperative Institute, HYCOM Consortium

Data ServingData Serving

Florida Climate Data, FSU Winds and Fluxes, Scatterometer Products, Research Vessel Data, . HYCOM Data Products, JMA SST ENSO Index

http://www.coaps.fsu.eduCourtesy - Eric Chassignet

CurrentCurrent

- Climate Modeling Activities: Improvement of seasonal surface climate outlooks in the FSU/COAPS atmospheric model to examine its potential for crop yield estimation. Comparison of statistical versus dynamical downscaling. High-resolution Atlantic Basin seasonal hurricane simulations in the FSU/ COAPS atmospheric model.

- Refinement and development of climate forecast products: Agriculture, wildfire risk forecast system, variability of extremes and extreme events, etc. (http:///agclimate.org)

- Storm Surge Modeling: Collaboration with the NHC/TPC which led to a modification of the surge forecasting techniques for storms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Future/PlannedFuture/Planned

- Accelerated development and transfer of applied climate products on time scales of weeks to a season for the Southeast United States.

- Collaboration with NCEP on the evaluation of the CFS in the areas of COAPS’ expertise, i.e., seasonal climate prediction (including impact on crop yield), downscaling, El Nino, impact on crop yields, seasonal hurricane activity and prediction, etc.

- Evaluation of the CCSM/HYCOM for seasonal prediction.

- Evaluation of HYCOM as an ocean component for the CFS.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu

COAPS Contributions

Courtesy - Eric Chassignet

http://www.iges.org

Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) Vision: Global society benefits from use-inspired basic research on climate variability, predictability, & change

and free access to research data & tools Mission: Explore, establish and quantify the predictability of seasonal to decadal variability in a changing

climate Support: COLA is a part of IGES, an independent non-profit institute, and is supported by NSF (lead), NOAA

and NASA through a single jointly-peer-reviewed, jointly-funded five-year “omnibus” proposal (current: 2004-2008)

Core Competencies: Evaluation of and experimentation with Nation’s climate models Scientific leadership in S-I predictability Collaboration with PhD program in Climate Dynamics at GMU GrADS and GDS - highly-valued, widely-used information technology

Accomplishments: COLA viewed as major interagency program (e.g. US National Research Council report) Quantified dynamical model seasonal prediction (DSP) capability Advanced multi-model ensemble Demonstrated that O-A and L-A interactions, with high-frequency noise and low-frequency climate change, play

important roles to enhance predictability Developed innovative modeling, data analysis and information theory-based strategies for understanding

predictability and improving prediction

Jim Kinter

http://www.iges.org

Current CFS experiments

10 COLA scientists, 2 PhD students and 1 summer intern actively using CFS Diagnose/model initial tendency errors in GFS/CFS (DelSole CTB project) Potential predictability of intraseasonal variability ENSO and the ENSO-monsoon relationship Bias, bias correction & skill in the Atlantic

Multi-model experiments CCSM proof-of-concept

Planned Multi-model R2O

CCSM transition to operations (CTB proposal) GFDL CM2.1 transition to operations

(collaboration with GFDL) GMAO forecast diagnosis (R2O in discussion)

O2R - support for CFS and other models Initial focus on land surface models (tentative)

COLA Contributions to CTB

Jan ICs1982-2000

Jim Kinter

Center for Science in the Earth System (UW) ARC Integrated research on the impacts of climate on the U.S. Pacific

Northwest by combining and integrating expertise in climate dynamics, ecological dynamics, hydrologic dynamics, and institutional and policy analysis

CSES is partially within the Joint Institute (with NOAA) for Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), the UW Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) center, and the UW ARC

Examples of CTB contributions: Drafting an MOU with CPC/CTB to include National Surface Water

Monitor as part of U.S. Drought Monitor UW West-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System (see below) Week-2 NCEP forecast for Pacific Northwest (see below)

Courtesy - Dennis Lettenmaier http://www.cses.washington.edu

University of Washington West-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System

A real-time simulation test-bed forclimate forecast use in

hydrology and water resourcessatellite data assimilation multi-model approaches forecast verificationLDAS-era land surface models

Courtesy - Dennis Lettenmaier

Motivation: Bond and Vecchi associated Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) variability with early-winter warm, wet storms and floods in the PNW. Floods in general are more likely in ENSO neutral and cold conditions (like this year).

Approach: Using the Hamill and Whitaker NCEP reforecasts (15-member ensembles, 15-day lead, updated daily 1979-present):

• Calculate the forecast skill in PNW 500 mbgeopotential height for the early winter. Alsostratify for MJO- and ENSO-phase, andevaluate forecast skill• Calculate dominant hemispheric patterns of forecast error and relate to atmospheric flowpatterns and ENSO phase.• Identify other regions and seasons whichexhibit predictability at ~2-week leads; evaluateimplications for hydrological (flood) forecasts.• Extend analysis to include precipitation as wellas geopotential height.

Reforecast 15-day Z500 absolute mean forecast error, OND

Documenting the skill of the two-week NCEP forecast for early winter in the Pacific Northwest

Courtesy - Dennis Lettenmaier

Courtesy - John Roads

1997: ECPC began making, for the USFS, experimental weekly to seasonal GSM/RSM predictions for the CONUS using the NCEP R1 GSM/RSM

Initial conditions came from the NCEP GDAS 00UTC analysis. Initial persisted SST anomalies provided ocean BCs. Observed precipitation drives initial FDI

2003: ECPC began making, for IRI/CPC, an ensemble (16) of seasonal (7 months) global predictions using the NCEP SFM

Atmospheric initial conditions came from long term simulations forced by observed SSTs. Ocean BCs came from IRI SST predictions.

2006: ECPC began making routine ECPM coupled ocean atmosphere predictions for fisheries applications.

The MIT ocean model was coupled to NCEP SFM The ocean initial conditions came from the JPL analysis

2006/7: ECPC G-RSM prediction models GSM and RSM consolidated to a single G-RSM model Noah LSM replaced RII OSU Prognostic clouds added to G-RSM Observed precipitation being used to not only update the FDI but also the soil moisture Streamflow module under development

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu

ECPC’s Experimental Prediction System is based on NCEP CFS

Courtesy - John Roads

PAST 2005-2008: Member of CST 2005-2008: ECPC has been diagnosing experimental NCEP CFS/GSM/RSM

ensembles for fire danger applications for USFS, NICC The CFS/GSM/RSM initial conditions and SST boundary conditions came from RII and

MOM3 ocean analysis. Observed precipitation used for FDI initial conditions These experimental forecasts are being provided to NICC as part of its new monthly

forecast effort of US fire danger. Depending on funding, these experimental firedanger forecasts will continue to be

provided to NICC. We also plan to continue these experimental firedanger forecasts at ECPC using models

equivalent to CFSnext (e.g. ECPC G-RSM), initialized from GDAS and our own land surface initialization

FUTURE ?? 2007-?: O2R - Provide part time assistance to CTB WWW and help desk.

We are planning for our ECPC Webmaster to work part time at NCEP on the CFS community help desk.

2008-2010: Analyze multi-RCM downscaling of seasonal CFS forecasts Depending on funding, we are proposing to develop a pilot multi-RCM model

downscaling of NCEP CFS Dec. forecasts If this Dec. downscaling provides a successful CFS augmentation, additional initial

months may be tested.http://ecpc.ucsd.edu

ECPC’s Past and Future Contributions to CTB

Courtesy - John Roads