Are New Nuclear Bargains Attainable?

8/14/2019 Are New Nuclear Bargains Attainable?

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Deepti Choubey


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ARE NEWNUCLEAR BARGAINS

ATTAINABLE?

Deepti Choubey


3/34

2008 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means

without permission in writing from the Carnegie Endowment.

The Carnegie Endowment normally does not take institutional positions on public

policy issues; the views represented here do not necessarily reflect the views of theEndowment, its staff, or its trustees.

For electronic copies of this report, visit www.CarnegieEndowment.org/pubs.

Limited print copies are also available.

To request a copy, send an e-mail to [email protected].

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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Phone: 202-483-7600Fax: 202-483-1840

www.CarnegieEndowment.org


4/34

table of contents

Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ivSummary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

Iru. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Th R. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

An Incomplete Debate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

A Credibility Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

The Opportunity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

NonNuclear-Weapon State Views . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Prp Mr . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Priip Pr . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

The First Step . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Serious Signals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

What Next? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Fine Tuning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Next Steps for the United States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Next Steps for NonNuclear-Weapon States . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21

The Naysayers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24

About the Author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Cri E r Ir P . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28

table of contents i i i


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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The author wishes to thank George Perkovich and Peter Reid for their

support and comments. She also wishes to thank Randy Rydell for his help in

vi h UN y. Th uhr i py ru h ri iiry

rprv r ix uri h h p ih hr

those who also provided extremely helpful comments. Special thanks are due to

juir Kiry Mihr Gri J rrh i

Nima Gerami.

iv acknowledgments


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are new nuclear bargains attainable?

carnegie endowment for international peace 1

SUMMARY

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7/34

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2 carnegie endowment for international peace

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8/34



INTRODUCTION

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9/34

deepti choubey


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10/34



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11/34

deepti choubey


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12/34



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13/34

deepti choubey


A CREDIBILITY PROBLEM

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15/34

deepti choubey


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17/34

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21/34

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23/34

deepti choubey


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24/34



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deepti choubey


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26/34


27/34

deepti choubey


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28/34



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29/34

deept i choubey


NOTES

1. George W. Bush, Remarks by the President to the People of Poland, (speech, Wawel

Royal Castle, Krakow, Poland, May 31, 2003) http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/

releases/2003/05/20030531-3.html (September 24, 2008). 2. Brazilian diplomat in discussion with the author, April 14, 2008. All interviews with

diplomats, other government officials, and United Nations officials cited in this analysis

were conducted confidentially and not for individual attribution; therefore, the names of the

interviewees are withheld by mutual agreement.

3. Argentine diplomat in discussion with the author, April 28, 2008.

4. German diplomat in discussion with the author, April 14, 2008.

5. G. John Ikenberry, Liberal Order Building, in Melvin P. Leffler and Jeffrey W. Legro,

eds., To Lead the World: American Strategy After the Bush Doctrine(New York: Oxford

University Press, 2008), p. 85.

6. Melvyn P. Leffler and Jeffrey W. Legro, Introduction, in Melvin P. Leffler and Jeffrey W.

Legro, To Lead the World: American Strategy After the Bush Doctrine, p. 5. 7. Ibid., p. 258.

8. Robert Kagan, End of Dreams, Return of History, in To Lead the World: American

Strategy After the Bush Doctrine, p. 36.

9. Swedish official in discussion with the author, April 23, 2008.

10. The term nuclear-armed states refers to the eight states that have acquired nuclear arms

without violating international treaties. George Perkovich and James M. Acton,Abolishing

Nuclear Weapons, Adelphi Paper 396 (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies),

2008.

11. New Zealand official in discussion with the author, May 28, 2008.

12. A diplomat who did not want to reveal government affiliation in discussion with the author,

April 23, 2008.

13. Australian diplomat in discussion with the author, April 28, 2008.14. Canadian diplomat in discussion with the author, April 25, 2008.


16. China and Russia are the only two states to have submitted reports, albeit vague ones, on

the status and composition of their nuclear forces as required by the 13 Steps agreed to at

the 2000 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference.

17. For a discussion about the pros and cons of increased transparency measures, especially

applied to China, India, Pakistan, and Israel, see George Perkovich and James M. Acton,

Abolishing Nuclear Weapons, pp. 3436.

18. Norwegian diplomat in discussion with the author, September 24, 2008.

19. George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, A World Free of

Nuclear Weapons, Wall Street Journal, January 4, 2007, p. A15.20. How Many Nuclear Weapons Do We Need: Thousands, Hundreds, or Zero? (Washington,

D.C.: American Association for the Advancement of Science Center for Science,

Technology and Security Policy and the New America Foundation) May 7, 2008.

21. Christopher A. Ford, U.S. special representative for nuclear nonproliferation, Statement to

2008 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Preparatory Committee (Geneva, Switzerland, April

28, 2008).

22. Ambassador Luiz Filipe de Macedo Soares, head of the Brazilian delegation, Statement

to 2008 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Preparatory Committee, cluster 1 (Geneva,

Switzerland, May 2, 2008).

23. New Zealand diplomat in discussion with the author, May 28, 2008.

24. UN official in discussion with the author, April 21, 2008.

25. Japanese diplomat in discussion with the author, May 2, 2008.

26. We cannot allow that progress in one area is blocked and held hostage to insufficient

progress in another. H. E. Ambassador Bente Angell-Hansen, Statement by Norway to


30/34



Preparatory Committee for the 2010 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on

Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, second session (Geneva, Switzerland, April 29,

2008).

27. Egyptian diplomat in discussion with the author, April 23, 2008.

28. South African official in discussion with the author, May 1, 2008.

29. Sergio Duarte, Disarmament: A Look Back, A Look Ahead, Disarmament Times, vol. 31,

no. 1 (Spring 2008), p. 5.

30. For further details about this debate, see Christopher A. Ford, Debating Disarmament,

Nonproliferation Review, vol. 14, no. 3 (November 2007), pp. 40128.

31. Antonia Chayes, How American Treaty Behavior Threatens National Security,

International Security, vol. 33, no. 1 (Summer 2008), p. 47.

32. Kishore Mahbubani, The Case Against the West: America and Europe in the Asian

Century, Foreign Affairs, vol. 87, no. 3 (May/June 2008), pp. 111124. http://proquest.umi.

com/pqdweb?index=6&did=1483499491&SrchMode=3&sid=2&Fmt=3&VInst=PROD&VType

=PQD&RQT=309&VName=PQD&TS=1221070573&clientId=13400&aid=1 (accessed June 2,

2008).

33. German official, in discussion with the author, April 30, 2008.34. Japanese official in discussion with the author, May 2, 2008.

35. German official in discussion with the author, April 30, 2008.

36. Federal Republic of Germany, Working Towards a Successful 2010 NPT Review

Conference, Working Paper PCII/22 (Germany, 2008), http://www.un.org/NPT2010/

SecondSession/documents.html (accessed August 5, 2008).

37. An official in discussion with the author, May 28, 2008.

38. Indonesian diplomat in discussion with the author, April 22, 2008.


40. Brazilian diplomat, in discussion with the author, April 14, 2008.

41. Iranian official in discussion with the author, May 2, 2008.

42. Stephen Rademaker, Blame America First,Wall Street Journal

, May 7, 2007, nationaledition, A15.

43. Canadian diplomat in discussion with the author, April 25, 2008.



46. Turkish diplomat in discussion with the author, April 30, 2008.

47. Brazilian diplomat in discussion with the author, April 14, 2008.

48. South African official in discussion with the author, April 30, 2008.



51. Kishore Mahbubani, The Case Against the West: America and Europe in the Asian

Century, Foreign Affairs,vol. 87, no. 3 (May/June 2008), pp. 11124. http://proquest.umi.

com/pqdweb?index=6&did=1483499491&SrchMode=3&sid=2&Fmt=3&VInst=PROD&VType=PQD&RQT=309&VName=PQD&TS=1221070573&clientId=13400&aid=1 (accessed June 2,

2008).


53. South Korean diplomat in discussion with the author, April 23, 2008.

54. Japanese official in discussion with the author, April 30, 2008.

55. Canadian diplomat in discussion with the author, May 2, 2008.


57. Turkish diplomats in discussion with the author, April 30, 2008.


59. Swedish diplomat in discussion with the author, May 1, 2008.

60. South African official in discussion with the author, April 30, 2008.61. Norwegian diplomat in discussion with the author, September 24, 2008.


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deepti choubey


62. Reaching Critical Will: Guide to the Conference on Disarmament (New York: Womens

International League for Peace and Freedom, 1998), http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/

political/cd/cdbook2008.pdf (accessed August 11, 2008), p. 6.




66. Member States Status of Signature and Ratification, CTBTO Preparatory Commission,

www.ctbto.org/member-states/status-of-signature-and-ratification/ (accessed August 18,

2008).







73. Japanese diplomat in discussion with the author, May 2, 2008.

74. German diplomat in discussion with the author, April 14, 2008.75. Canadian diplomat in discussion with the author, April 25, 2008.

76. Australian diplomat in discussion with the author, April 22, 2008.






82. New Zealand diplomat in discussion with the author, May 28, 2008.

83. Swedish official in discussion with the author, May 1, 2008.


85. Indonesian diplomat in discussion with the author, April 22, 2008.86. Brazilian diplomat in discussion with the author, April 14, 2008.



89. Swedish official in discussion with the author, May 1, 2008.






95. Rademaker, Blame America First, A15.


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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Deept Choubeyis the deputy director of the Nonproliferaon Program at the

Carnegie Endowment. Choubey is responsible for establishing strategic prioriesfor the program, conducng research and generang policy analysis, designing

and implemenng outreach iniaves, and leading the Carnegie Internaonal

Nonproliferaon Conference. Her research interests include the calculaons of

nonnuclear-weapon states, the intersecon of nuclear nonproliferaon and

climate-change agendas, and the role of nonproliferaon for long-term U.S.

foreign policy.

Prior to joining the Carnegie Endowment in 2006, Choubey was director of the

Peace and Security Iniave (PSI) for the Ploughshares Fund. The PSI is a networkof more than 160 think tanks, advocacy organizaons, grassroots groups, and

funders that work together to increase their capacity to inuence U.S. naonal

security policies. Before joining Ploughshares, Choubey worked for Ambassador

Nancy Soderberg in the New York oce of the Internaonal Crisis Group.

Choubey earned her Master of Internaonal Aairs, with a focus on South Asia

security policy, from Columbia Universitys School of Internaonal and Public

Aairs. She also became a Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellow in Hindi

and Urdu at Columbia. Before that, Choubey was a strategy consultant advisingmarket-leading companies in Asia, Europe, and the United States. She earned her

undergraduate degree in Government from Harvard University.


33/34

CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE

The Carnegie Endowment for Internaonal Peace is a private, nonprot

organizaon dedicated to advancing cooperaon between naons and promongacve internaonal engagement by the United States. Founded in 1910,

Carnegie is nonparsan and dedicated to achieving praccal results. Through

research, publishing, convening and, on occasion, creang new instuons and

internaonal networks, Endowment associates shape fresh policy approaches.

Their interests span geographic regions and the relaons among governments,

business, internaonal organizaons, and civil society, focusing on the economic,

polical, and technological forces driving global change.

Building on the successful establishment of the Carnegie Moscow Center, theEndowment has added operaons in Beijing, Beirut, and Brussels to its exisng

oces in Washington and Moscow, pioneering the idea that a think tank whose

mission is to contribute to global security, stability, and prosperity requires a

permanent internaonal presence and a mulnaonal outlook at the core of its

operaons.


34/34

Carnegie enDowment for international peaCe

1779 Massachusetts Ave., NWWashington, D.C. 20036-2103

Phone: 202.483.7600Fax: [email protected]

Carnegie mosCow Center

125009, MoscowTverskaya, 16/2RussiaPhone: 495.935.8904Fax: [email protected]

Carnegie China Center

Room 513, Chang Xin Building39 Anding Road, Chaoyang DistrictBeijing, 100029ChinaPhone: 86.10.6443.6667 ext. 627Fax: 86.10.6894.6780

Carnegie miDDle east Center

Parliament St. 88Postal Code 2011 8806Downtown, Beirut

LebanonPhone: 961.1.99.12.91Fax: 961.1.99.15.91www.carnegie-mec.org

Carnegie europe

Brussels OfceAvenue dAuderghem, 821040 Brussels, BelgiumPhone: 32.2.735.56.50Fax: 32.2.736.62.22www.carnegieeurope.eu

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