Frances Sprei Associate Professor in Sustainable MobilityDepartment of Space, Earth and EnvironmentChalmers
Are the buyers ready for electric cars?
September 13th 2018 - Initiative seminar: Electromobility - Back to the future
Frances Sprei Associate Professor in Sustainable MobilityDepartment of Space, Earth and EnvironmentChalmers
Are the electric cars ready for the buyers?
September 13th 2018 - Initiative seminar: Electromobility - Back to the future
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
Share of vehicles that can cover all their driving on a given range
Source: Jacobsson et al, 2016
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
Share of vehicles that can cover all their driving on a given range – with adaptation once per month
Source: Jacobsson et al, 2016
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
Share of vehicles that can cover all their driving on a given range – with adaptation once per week
Source: Jacobsson et al, 2016
What range do BEV have?
9/13/2018 FRANCES SPREI
Source: Nykvist et al, under review
Least expensivethird
Middle third
Most expensivethird
Share of cars that fulfill all driving
BEVs in Two-Car Households
Jakobsson et al., 2016 ”Are multi-car households better suited for battery electric vehicles – Driving Patterns and economics in Sweden and Germany”. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
First car
Second car
Fulfill all driving at range120 km:First cars < 10%All Cars ≈ 15%Second cars ≈ 30%
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
On average (20 households):● Long daily driving distances are reduced.● Short daily driving distances are reduced.● Distances congregate at 40-90 km.
How are battery electric vehicles used in 2-car households?
Distritbution of daily driving distances
Large differences between households –interviews help explain why
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
BEV attributes - charging
9/13/2018 FRANCES SPREI
Least expensivethirdMiddle third
Most expensivethird
Sour
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BEV attributes – size and acceleration
9/13/2018 FRANCES SPREI
Least expensivethirdMiddle third
Most expensivethird
Sour
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When will cost for a 200 mile range come down to average prices?
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
Source: Nykvist et al, under review
So are BEV ready for buyers ?
Short answer: pretty close
Long answer: With 300 km range ~ 65 % of cars can cover all their driving85 % with some kind of adaptation once a monthTwo-car households are especially suitable for adoption of BEVRegarding other attributes BEV are comparable with average vehicles300 km range could reach average price of US market slightly after 2020
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
Extra slides
9/13/2018
Comparing 4 different data sets (no adaptation and once a month)
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
Source: Plötz et al, 2017
Power 50 kW
Range [km] 100 200 300
Time (min) 14.09 22.8 27.0
fastchargingstations/1,000BEV (VRI)
6.8 5.3 3.7
How does range and charging power affect charging need? Germany
Source: Gnann et al, 2018
Based on German driving data, queing model, max 5 min waiting
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
Power 50 kW 100 kW
Range [km] 100 200 300 100 200 300
Time (min) 14.09 22.8 27.0 7.0 11.4 13.5
fastchargingstations/1,000BEV (VRI)
6.8 5.3 3.7 2.4 1.8 1.2
How does range and charging power affect charging need? Germany
Based on German driving data, queing model, max 5 min waiting
Source: Gnann et al, 2018
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
Power 50 kW 100 kW 150 kW
Range [km] 100 200 300 100 200 300 100 200 300
Time (min) 14.09 22.8 27.0 7.0 11.4 13.5 4.7 7.6 9.0
fastchargingstations/1,000BEV (VRI)
6.8 5.3 3.7 2.4 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.7
How does range and charging power affect charging need? Germany
Based on German driving data, queing model, max 5 min waiting
Source: Gnann et al, 2018
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
Attributes of BEV – divided by price percentile
Lowest third
Middle third
Highest third
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Battery pack costs
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
Long ranged PHEV can achieve similar electricVKT as shorter range BEV
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
Source: Plötz et al (2017)
Data source: UC Davis
Share of eVMT in 2+ car housholds in California
Based on 74 households with 2+ cars with a PEVSimilar shares betweenlonger range PHEV (Volt) and Leaf
9/13/2018 Frances Sprei
