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Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not...

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Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? Rob Arnott Chairman & Founder Research Affiliates, LLC
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Page 1: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

Are Valuations Now Irrelevant?

Rob ArnottChairman & FounderResearch Affiliates, LLC

Page 2: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

Valuing Equity Strategies:Past Is Not Prologue

2

Page 3: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

Most Investors Are Trend Chasers!

Source: Research Affiliates, using data from the CRSP Mutual Funds Database and Morningstar Direct, 1/1991–6/2013. The buy-and-hold return is the geometric average return over the sample period. The dollar-weighted return is the category IRR (inclusive of all category mutual funds weighted by their total assets). Hsu, Myers, and Whitby, “Timing Poorly: A Guide to Generating Poor Returns While Investing in Successful Strategies,” Journal of Portfolio Management (Winter 2016).

3

Page 4: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

Actively Managed Mutual Funds…A Naïve Contrarian Strategy Can Work

This result is arguably created by our industry’s favorite decision rule: Three bad years and out!

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from Morningstar Direct.

11.7%

11.0%

10.6%10.3% 10.2% 10.1%

9.9% 10.0%9.8% 9.7%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Subsequent Three-YearAverage

AnnualizedReturn

Decile Portfolios, Based On Prior 3-Year Returns

Average Mutual Fund Subsequent Three-Year Performance, Sorted by Prior Three-Year Returns, US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016

= LowestDecile

= TopDecile

Average 10.3%

4

Page 5: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

What Style Are Investors Chasing Today? Growth!

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from FactSet. Data as of 6/30/2019.

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

'88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 '18

Annualized Relative Return

Annualized Trailing 10-Year Relative Total Return

Russell 1000 Value vs. Growth Average

10th Percentile 90th Percentile

5

Page 6: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

What Factor Is Priced—Relative to Its Own History—to Deliver the Best Future Returns? Value!

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from CRSP/Compustat and Datascope/Worldstream. Please see important information at the end of this presentation regarding simulated data. Return expectations as of June 30, 2019.

Value P/B - US

Value Composite - US

Momentum - USIlliquidity - US

Low Beta - USGross Profitability - US

Investment - US

Size - US

Value P/B - DEV

Value Composite - DEV

Momentum - DEVIlliquidity - DEV

Low Beta - DEVGross Profitability - DEV

Investment - DEV

Size - DEV

Value P/B - EM

Value Composite - EM

Momentum - EM

Illiquidity - EM

Low Beta - EM

Gross Profitability - EM

Investment - EM

Size - EM

-5%

0%

5%

10%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%

Expected5 Year

Returns(Ann.)

Expected Volatility (Ann.)

Factor Expected Returns as of 6/30/2019

6

Page 7: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

Equity Forecasts:Past Is Not Prologue… Again

7

Page 8: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

4.4%

1.9%

2.1%0.4% 0.3% 9.1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Dividend Yield RealFundamental

Growth

Inflation ValuationChange

Compounding RealizedReturn

Return

US Large Cap Equity Historical Return Decomposition, 1871-Jun 2019

What Were the Sources of Historical Returns?

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from the Robert Shiller database. Data as of June 30, 2019.

8

Page 9: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

1.9%

1.2%

2.1%

-2.7%

2.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Dividend Yield Real FundamentalGrowth

Inflation Valuation Change Expected Return

ExpectedReturn

US Large Cap Equity Return Building Blocks

Equity Returns Are a Function of Dividend Yield, Earnings Growth, and Valuation Changes

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from MSCI Inc., Bloomberg, and Barclays. Please see important information at the end of this presentation regarding simulated data. The 10-year return expectations are as of June 30, 2019.

Yield ValuationGrowth

9

Page 10: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

-20%

0%

20%

40%

4 16 64Real

Ret

urn

(Sub

sequ

ent 1

Yea

r)

CAPE

Panel A

CAPE Is Powerful at Forecasting Long-Horizon Returns, but Almost Useless for Market Timing

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from Robert Shiller database. Data is for the period 1/1/1881–10/31/2017.

Correlation of CAPE Ratio with US Equity MarketReal Return at 1-Year Horizons, Jan 1881–Oct 2017

10

Page 11: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

-20%

0%

20%

40%

4 16 64Real

Ret

urn

(Sub

sequ

ent 1

Yea

r)

CAPE

Panel A

CAPE Is Powerful at Forecasting Long-Horizon Returns, but Almost Useless for Market Timing

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from Robert Shiller database. Data is for the period 1/1/1881–10/31/2017.

Correlation of CAPE Ratio with US Equity MarketReal Return at 1-Year Horizons, Jan 1881–Oct 2017

11

Page 12: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

-20%

0%

20%

40%

4 16 64Real

Ret

urn

(Sub

sequ

ent 1

Yea

r)

CAPE

Panel A

-20%

0%

20%

40%

4 16 64Real

Ret

urn

(Sub

sequ

ent 5

Yea

r)

CAPE

Panel B

CAPE Is Powerful at Forecasting Long-Horizon Returns, but Almost Useless for Market Timing

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from Robert Shiller database. Data is for the period 1/1/1881–10/31/2017.

Correlation of CAPE Ratio with US Equity Market Real Return at 1- and 5-Year Horizons, Jan 1881–Oct 2017

12

Page 13: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

-20%

0%

20%

40%

4 16 64Real

Ret

urn

(Sub

sequ

ent 1

Yea

r)

CAPE

Panel A

-20%

0%

20%

40%

4 16 64Real

Ret

urn

(Sub

sequ

ent 5

Yea

r)

CAPE

Panel B

-20%

0%

20%

40%

4 16 64Real

Ret

urn

(Sub

sequ

ent 1

0 Ye

ar)

CAPE

Panel C

CAPE Is Powerful at Forecasting Long-Horizon Returns, but Almost Useless for Market Timing

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from Robert Shiller database. Data is for the period 1/1/1881–10/31/2017.

Correlation of CAPE Ratio with US Equity Market Real Return at 1-, 5-, and 10-Year Horizons, Jan 1881–Oct 2017

13

Page 14: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

-20%

0%

20%

40%

4 16 64Real

Ret

urn

(Sub

sequ

ent 1

Yea

r)

CAPE

Panel A

-20%

0%

20%

40%

4 16 64Real

Ret

urn

(Sub

sequ

ent 5

Yea

r)

CAPE

Panel B

-20%

0%

20%

40%

4 16 64Real

Ret

urn

(Sub

sequ

ent 1

0 Ye

ar)

CAPE

Panel C

-20%

0%

20%

40%

4 16 64Real

Ret

urn

(Sub

sequ

ent 2

0 Ye

ar)

CAPE

Panel D

CAPE Is Powerful at Forecasting Long-Horizon Returns, but Almost Useless for Market Timing

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from Robert Shiller database. Data is for the period 1/1/1881–10/31/2017.

Correlation of CAPE Ratio with US Equity Market Real Return at 1-, 5-, 10-, and 20-Year Horizons, Jan 1881–Oct 2017

14

Page 15: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

4 16 64

Subs

eque

nt 1

0-Ye

ar R

etur

n (a

nnua

lized

)

Starting CAPE Ratio

US

Canada

Japan

The Link Between Starting Valuations and Subsequent Returns Is Robust Across Equity Markets

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from Robert Shiller database, Bloomberg, and MSCI. Note: Each country is measured over the time span for which earnings data are available through October 2007 in order to calculate 10-year returns ending in 2017. The start date for earnings data in the United States is 1871; in Australia, Canada, Germany, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom is 1969; in France is 1971; in Hong Kong and Spain is 1980; and in Italy is 1984.

Regression of ln(CAPE) vs. Subsequent 10-Year Stock Market Returns, 12 Countries

Country Slope Correlation

Australia -0.12 91%

Canada -0.03 48%

France -0.12 89%

Germany -0.08 81%

Hong Kong -0.10 75%

Italy -0.11 62%

Japan -0.09 68%

Spain -0.13 79%

Sweden -0.12 87%

Switzerland -0.08 72%

United Kingdom -0.15 90%

United States -0.08 58%

Average Correlation = 75%

15

Page 16: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

-5%

5%

15%

25%4

8

16

32

641926 1937 1948 1959 1970 1981 1992 2003 2014

Subsequent10-YearNominalReturn

StartingCAPE

Earnings Yield and Subsequent Returns – US (1926-June 2019)

Starting CAPE 10-Year Subsequent Return

US Equities Are Poised for Lackluster Future Returns

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from Bloomberg and Robert Shiller database. The index and inception date is the S&P 500 (January 1926). Earnings yield is computed as the inverse of the CAPE ratio. For more information, please visit http://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/asset-allocation.html. As of June 30, 2019.

Earnings Yield and Subsequent Returns, US, 1926–June 2019

16

Page 17: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

-80%

-40%

0%

40%

80%

120%

160%

200%

1871 1895 1919 1943 1967 1991 2015

CurrentValue as

Comparedto FullPeriod

Average

Current Levels of U.S. Valuation Metrics vs. Their Long-Term Averages

Shiller P/E Market Cap to GDP Tobin's Q Hussman's PE

Common Valuation Metrics Imply Overvaluation

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from Robert Shiller and the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). US Valuation Metrics referenced above are presented as of the first date that data is available. As of June 30, 2019.

Current Levels of US Valuation Metrics vs. Their Long-Term Averages

17

Page 18: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

Low Macro Volatility Helps Explain High CAPE Ratios

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from FRED at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Robert Shiller’s database, and Ray C. Fair’s quarterly historical GDP Data (https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/rayfair/pdf/2002dtbl.htm). For quarterly real GDP growth, we use FRED data from 1947 to present, backfilled with data from Ray Fair’s website. Macro volatility is defined as the arithmetic average of the rolling three-year volatility of real GDP growth and the rolling three-year volatility of inflation.

Aked, Mazzoleni, and Shakernia (2017) find that today’s low volatility levels support an equilibrium CAPE of 26, about 10% below the current level of 29 as of June 30, 2019.

18

0.2%

0.4%

0.8%

1.6%

3.2%

6.4%

12.8%6

12

24

481926 1933 1940 1947 1954 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 2017

Macro Volatility (Log Scale)C

APE

(Log

Sca

le, I

nver

ted)

CAPE and Macro Volatility, US, Jan 1926–Jun 2019

CAPE (left axis, inverted) Macro Volatility (right axis)

Page 19: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

Even After Making Multiple Adjustments, US Equities Face Headwinds from Valuation Contraction

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC. As of June 30, 2019.

Today's CAPE:S&P 500

What’s “Fair” Value?

CAPE excluding highest & lowestearnings years

CAPE excluding lowest 12 monthsof earnings

5

Valuation differential still implies -3.0% annual return headwind over 10

years!Simple Average: 1926–6/30/20191

Simple Average:1977–6/30/2019

Adjusted forBusiness Cycle& Macro Vol

18.2x

21.2x

21.6x

28.7x

27.7x

29.4x(95th percentile)

2

3

What’s Today’s “Actual” Value?

4

19

Page 20: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

High Earnings Are Not Enough to Portend a High CAPE Ratio!• For returns to remain elevated with a high CAPE, EPS growth must be high as

well• EPS growth arguments1 for elevated CAPE explain high past EPS growth, not high future EPS growth.

• EPS growth rates are cyclical.

• Indeed, real earnings of the S&P 500 are only barely above 2014 peak. We are skeptical that earnings can grow much, relative to GDP, in the years ahead.

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from Robert Shiller database. Data for the period 1/1/1871–10/31/2017.1 Grantham, Jeremy. 2017. “This Time Seems Very, Very Different.” Advisor Perspectives, GMO Quarterly Letter (May 2).

-15%-10%-5%0%5%

10%15%

10-Y

ear

Tren

d Re

al E

arni

ngs

Gro

wth

Rolling 10-Year US Real EPS T rend Growth, Jan 187 1–Oct 2017

20

Page 21: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

y = -0.23x + 0.02Correl. = -21%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Subs

eque

nt 10

-Yea

r Re

al E

arni

ngs G

row

th

Previous 10-Year Real Earnings Growth

Past vs. Future 10-Year US Real EPS Trend Growth, Jan 1871–Oct 2017

High EPS Growth Often Precedes Low EPS Growth

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from Robert Shiller database. Data for the period 1/1/1871–10/31/2017.

21

Page 22: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

Equities: Long-Term Return Expectations

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from Ibbotson, Shiller, Bloomberg, MSCI, and FactSet. The bolded country indicesare represented by the S&P 500, MSCI Germany, MSCI Japan, and MSCI UK. For more information, please visit http://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/asset-allocation.html. Please see important information at the end of this presentation regarding simulated data. The 10-year return expectations are as of June 30, 2019.

CanadaEAFE France

Hong Kong

ItalyAustralia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

US Small

Japan

GermanyUnited Kingdom

US Large

BrazilChinaEmerging Markets

India

Indonesia

South KoreaMalaysia

Mexico

Poland

Russia

South Africa

Taiwan

Thailand

Turkey

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

ExpectedReturns

(UnhedgedUSD)

Volatility

Developed Markets Emerging Markets

22

Page 23: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

United States Germany

JapanUnited Kingdom United States

Germany

Japan

United Kingdom

Global 60 / 40

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

ExpectedReturns

(UnhedgedUSD)

Volatility

Mainstream Stocks and Bonds

Bonds Equities Portfolios

2.3%

5.3% 5.2%

6.2%

3.7%

0%

8%

UnitedStates

Germany Japan UnitedKingdom

Global60/40

ExpectedReturns

(UnhedgedUSD)

Mainstream 60/40 Portfolios*

Mainstream Asset Classes Offer Less Than Most Investors Expect

*60/40 portfolios are represented as 60% core equity index and 40% Treasury 5-7 Year bond index for each specific country. For the US, the Barclays Aggregate is used in lieu of the 5–7 Year Treasury. Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from Ibbotson, Shiller, Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI Inc., and Barclays. Please see important information at the end of this presentation regarding simulated data. The 10-year return expectations are as of June 30, 2019.

23

Page 24: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

How Do the Largest Holdings of Index Funds Impact Performance?

24

Page 25: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

How Expensive Are FANMAG (Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon, & Google)?

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from FactSet as of 6/30/2019. Market cap for countries represents the sum of the market caps for their constituents in the Morningstar Global Markets Index. Market caps for Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon, & Google are excluded from the United States. The total market capitalization for the United States is $25.7 trillion, which is cut off at $6.0 trillion in this graph for scaling purposes.

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000

Korea

Hong Kong

Australia

Switzerland

India

Germany

Canada

France

United Kingdom

China

FANMAG

Japan

US ex FANMAG

Aggregate Market Cap ($Bn)

Aggregate Market Cap by Country

+

$25.7T

25

Page 26: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000

Materials

Utilities

Telecomm

Energy

Industrial

Non-Cyc ex-FANMAG

Cons Cyclical

Tech ex FANMAG

Healthcare

FANMAG

Financial

Aggregate Market Cap ($Bn)

Aggregate Market Cap of US Sectors

How Expensive Are FANMAG (Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon, & Google)?

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from FactSet as of 6/30/2019. Market cap for sectors represents the sum of the market caps for their constituents in the Russell 1000 Index. Market caps for Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Microsoft, Amazon, & Google are excluded from the Technology sector.

Over $4.0T in combined market cap places these six companies above all but one sector in the US!

26

Page 27: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

The “Top Dogs” Are Constantly Changing!

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from Financial Times, Wikipedia, and Gavekal Research. Rankings shown represent beginning-of-year rankings.*Year 2000 represents holdings as of March, three months late.

2019 2010 2000* 1990 1980Microsoft PetroChina Microsoft Nippon Tel and Tel IBMApple Inc. Exxon Mobil General Electric Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi AT&TAmazon Microsoft NTT DoCoMo Industrial Bank of Japan Exxon MobilAlphabet Inc. ICBC Cisco Systems Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Standard OilBerkshire Hathaway Wal-Mart Wal-Mart Toyota Motors SchlumbergerFacebook China Construction Bank Intel Corporation Fuji Bank ShellTencent BHP Billiton Nippon Tel and Tel Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank MobilAlibaba Group HSBC Exxon Mobil IBM Atlantic RichfieldJohnson & Johnson Petrobras Lucent Technologies UFJ Bank General ElectricJPMorgan Chase Apple Inc. Deutsche Telekom Exxon Mobil Eastman Kodak

Ten Largest Market Capitalization Stocks in the World, at the Beginning of Each Year

Legend: New Addition to List Drops off List Next Period Flip-Flop: New Then Drops

Black = US Company Teal = Emerging Markets Blue = European Company Green = Japan/Australia

Since 1980, typically only 2 of the top 10 companies in the market remain among the largest companies 10 years later.

27

Page 28: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

“Top Dogs” by Year Over the Past Decade

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, using data from Financial Times and Wikipedia. Rankings shown represent beginning-of-year rankings.

Top Dogs have been unusually steady since 2018. This will change!

Legend: New Addition to List Drops off List Next Period Flip-Flop: New Then Drops

Black = US Company Teal = Emerging Markets Blue = European Company Green = Japan/Australia

2019 2018 2017 2016 2015Microsoft Apple Inc. Apple Inc. Apple Inc. Apple Inc.Apple Inc. Alphabet Inc. Alphabet Inc. Alphabet Inc. Exxon MobilAmazon Microsoft Microsoft Microsoft MicrosoftAlphabet Inc. Amazon Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire HathawayBerkshire Hathaway Facebook Exxon Mobil Exxon Mobil GoogleFacebook Tencent Amazon Amazon PetroChinaTencent Berkshire Hathaway Johnson & Johnson General Electric Johnson & JohnsonAlibaba Group Alibaba Group JPMorgan Chase Johnson & Johnson Wells Fargo

Johnson & Johnson Johnson & Johnson General Electric Wells Fargo Wal-MartJPMorgan Chase JPMorgan Chase Wells Fargo JPMorgan Chase ICBC

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010Apple Inc. Apple Inc. Exxon Mobil Exxon Mobil PetroChinaExxon Mobil Exxon Mobil Apple Inc. PetroChina Exxon MobilMicrosoft PetroChina PetroChina Apple Inc. MicrosoftGoogle BHP Billiton Royal Dutch Shell BHP Billiton ICBCBerkshire Hathaway ICBC ICBC Microsoft Wal-MartGeneral Electric China Mobile Microsoft ICBC China Construction BankJohnson & Johnson Wal-Mart IBM Petrobras BHP BillitonWal-Mart Samsung Electronics Chevron Corporation China Construction Bank HSBCHoffmann-La Roche Microsoft Wal-Mart Royal Dutch Shell PetrobrasChevron Corporation Royal Dutch Shell China Mobile Nestlé Apple Inc.

Ten Largest Market Capitalization Stocks in the World, at the Beginning of Each Year

28

Page 29: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

“Top Dogs” Vanish Because They Underperform!

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from Worldscope/Datastream. Based on research published in, “The Winner’s Curse: Too Big to Succeed?” by Arnott and Wu, 2012. “Top Dog” refers to the largest company in the index each year by market capitalization. Please see important information at the end of this presentation regarding simulated data.

The global top dog outpaced the global cap-weighted stock market only once in the last 36 years!

Type of Top Dog Subsequent Horizon

Relative Return vs. Sector,Average Across Sectors

Frequency of Win vs. Sector,Average Across Sectors

Top Dog by Sector(Average, Developed World)

1yr -10.1% 38%

5yrs -9.5% 25%

10yrs -9.7% 21%

Subsequent Horizon

Relative Returnvs. Developed World

Frequency of Winvs. Developed World

Top Dog,Developed World

1yr -7.2% 38%

5yrs -8.4% 21%

10yrs -9.2% 4%

Performance of Largest Market Cap Stocks, 1982–2018

29

Page 30: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

How Do “Top Dogs” Impact Index Performance?We compared the performance of four different portfolios:

DevelopedWorldCap Weighted (“World”)

GlobalTop DogThe single largest market-cap stock in the developed world

GlobalTop TenThe ten largest market-cap stocks in the developed world

Country Top DogThe largest market-cap stock in each developed country

30

Page 31: Are Valuations Now Irrelevant? - Research Affiliates · Valuing Equity Strategies: Past Is Not Prologue 2. ... US Long-Only Equity Funds, Jan 1990–Dec 2016 = Lowest. Decile = Top.

$25

$50

$100

$200

$400

$800

$1,600

$3,200

1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016

Gro

wth

of $

100

(log

scal

e)Performance of Top Dog Portfolios

Developed World Global Top Dog Global Top Ten Country Top Dogs

“Top Dog” Portfolios Underperform the Market

Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from Worldscope and Datastream. Data from 1/1/1980-6/30/2019. “Global top dog” refers to the largest company in the index each year by market capitalization. “Global Top Ten” refers to the top 10 companies in the index each year by market capitalization. Please see important information at the end of this presentation regarding simulated data.

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Unconventional Assets Mostly Priced to Offer Better Returns

*Unconventional Portfolio is an equal-weighted portfolio of the following asset classes: EM Equity, EM Currency, EM Local Debt, Bank Loans, US TIPS, High Yield, REITs, and Commodities. US 60/40 is represented as 60% in S&P 500 and 40% in Barclays U.S. Aggregate. Global 60/40 is represented as 60% in MSCI World and 40% in Citigroup WGBI. Source: Research Affiliates, LLC, based on data from Shiller, Bloomberg, and FactSet. Please see important information at the end of this presentation regarding simulated data. As of June 30, 2019.

EM Equity

High YieldBank Loans

EM (Local) Debt

US TIPS

REITs

EM Currency

CommoditiesUnconventional Portfolio*

U.S. 60/40 Global 60/40

0%

4%

8%

12%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

ExpectedReturns

(UnhedgedUSD)

Volatility

Equity Fixed Income Alternatives Portfolios

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Key Takeaways• The link between starting valuations and subsequent returns is

powerful.» Valuation levels are not useful for timing market tops and bottoms.» Chasing returns can be very costly. High valuations can go higher, but not

indefinitely.» “Over-rebalance” into laggards – averaging in – as a long-term performance-

enhancing strategy.

• Across asset classes higher return potential exists in international and diversifying markets.

» Investors should balance return maximization goals with risk relative to peer groups or conventional benchmarks.

• Within equities the value factor offers the highest return potential today.

» A dynamic multi-factor approach may also balance alpha and tracking-error goals.

» The largest stocks in the market are often expensive and have historically underperformed after reaching the top 10.

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