Are we ready for REDD? Multidimensional policies for reducing Amazon deforestation: 2001-2010

Gilberto CâmaraDirector, National Institute for Space ResearchBrazil

http://www.dpi.inpe.br/gilberto

Brazil-MIT Forum 2011, Boston (USA)

Best environmental monitoring

46% of energy is renewable

Brazil: a natural knowledge economyBest technology in biofuels

World leader in tropical agriculture

Nature, 29 July 2010

Agriculture

Energy

Ecosystems

Climate change

Weather and natural disasters

Space technology adds value to Brazil´s natural knowledge economy

Megacities

The rôle of forests in global climate

Aware that deforestation accounts for approximately 20% of annual CO2 emissions, we remain engaged in seeking the reduction of emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) (G8 L’Aquila Declaration, 2009)

REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation): the concept

Payment to tropical nations for avoided deforestation as compensation for fossil fuel emissions

The hype for REDD

Why so generous?

Payments for avoided deforestation?

Source: Carlos Nobre (INPE)

Deforestation is responsible for 20% of global GHG emissions (G8)

Can we base global policies on this statement?

source: Global Land Project (2010)

Land change < 10% of total GHG emissions in 2010

CO2 e

mis

sion

s (P

gC y

-1)

Fossil fuel

Land use change

10

8

6

4

2

1960 20101970 1990 20001980

Global GHG emissions

Impact of land change in Brazil’s emissions

Reduction from 27,000 km2 to 6,500 km2 in 5 yearsGovernance + markets + technology >> REDD+

Reducing deforestation in Amazonia

Monitoring Deforestation in AmazoniaCBERS image

Science (27 April 2007): “Brazil´s monitoring system is the envy of the world”.

DeforestationDegradation

Floresta

time

15-day deforestation alerts

Yearly rates of clear cuts

INPE’s Monitoring Systems

15-day warnings of newly deforested large areas

Real-time Deforestation Monitoring

~230 scenes Landsat/year

Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas

Clear-cut deforestation mapping

Transparency builds governance

500.000 registrations46 million protests

Policing actions: illegal wood seizure

50% of operations in 2% of the area

Protected areas and deforestation

Markets have a positive rôle

“By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestation by 80% relative to 2005.” (pres. Lula in Copenhagen COP-15)

Stern report: REDD is cheap

Payments limited to endangered areasEach agent is compensated by opportunity cost

REDD scenario: avoiding emissions by paying current opportunity costs

Economic failure, ecological failure (Costa, 2009)

Non-REDD scenario: avoiding emissions by conversion of productive activities

Economic growth, ecological success (Costa, 2009)

Market impact of deforestation reduction in Brazil

EU-15 reduction 2005-202020% of 1990 levels

Avoided def Brazil 2005-2020

From 2005 to 2020, avoided deforestation by Brazil would be 2/3 of the total proposed EU-15 cuts

7,7 Gt CO2eq4,9 Gt CO2eq

REDD: what is avoided deforestation?

Is REDD creating hot air?

Conflicting prospects for REDD

Will REDD create self-defeating outcomes?

‘We have a resource we would like to get money for. Either you pay us for biodiversity services or we will sell the forest to Malaysian logging companies.’ (Guyana government officer)

The gods are never crazy…

…but you should not be fooled by them!