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Are You Ready for Massive Disruptions?
Are You Ready for Massive Disruptions?
Jeffrey KanneNational Real Estate Advisors
This session is eligible for 1.25 Continuing Education Hours.
To earn these hours you must:• Have your badge scanned in and out at the door• Attend 90% of this presentation• Fill out the online evaluation for this session:
www.necanet.org/NNSurvey2019
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www.na tadv i so r s . c omDisruptorsApril 2019
The Disruptors
I. Demographic Trends
II. Automation
III.Climate Change
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I. Demographics
Demographic Trends
I. Stage 1a. High birthrates, high death ratesb. Stable population
II. Stage 2a. High birthrates, low death ratesb. Population growth
III. Stage 3a. Low birthrates, low death ratesb. Population aging
IV. Stage 4a. Low birthrates, low death ratesb. Population decline
‐10% ‐5% 0% 5% 10%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
‐7% ‐2% 3%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
‐5% 0% 5%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4‐5% 0% 5%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
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Population Comparisons: 1980United States China Europe
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
5% 0% 5%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
Population: 224m Population: 1.0b Population: 74m
‐5% 0% 5%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
14% of population over 60 7% of population over 60 16% of population over 60
‐7% 0% 7%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
Men Women Men Women Men Women
Population Comparisons: 2015United States China Europe
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Population: 322m Population: 1.4b Population: 740m
5% 0% 5%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
‐5% 0% 5%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
21% of population over 60 15% of population over 60 24% of population over 60
‐5% 0% 5%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
Men Women Men Women Men Women
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Population Comparisons: 2050United States China Europe
36% of the population over the age of 60
Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Population: 389m Population: 1.4b Population: 705m
5% 0% 5%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
‐5% 0% 5%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
‐5% 0% 5%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
34% of the population over the age of 60
28% of the population over the age of 60
Men Women Men Women Men Women
U.S. ImmigrationU.S. Population
Source: U.S. Census
Population: 322m
‐12 ‐6 0 6 12
100+
90‐94
80‐84
70‐74
60‐64
50‐54
40‐44
30‐34
20‐24
10‐14
0‐4
Millions21% of the population over the
age of 6029% of the population over the
age of 60
w/o Immigrants and their Children
Population: 255m
‐12 ‐6 0 6 12
100+
90‐94
80‐84
70‐74
60‐64
50‐54
40‐44
30‐34
20‐24
10‐14
0‐4
Millions
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China’s Population Problem• Population today – 1.4 billion
• U.N. Predictions:• 2030 – 1.4 billion• 2100 – 1.0 billion (lose entire U.S.)
• Causes:• Urbanization• Female education• Children no longer an asset • No Immigration• 1971: “Later, Longer, Fewer”• 1979: “One Child” policy
• An entire generation believes the ideal family has a single child
• 30 million “missing” women and 30 men without mates
• “Empty Planet” prediction: 750 million in 2100, 630 million less than today
Building entire cities on spec – will they all fill up?
Japan’s Smart-Aging Seniors
Source: Wall Street Journal
Japan - Today
33% of the population over the age of 60
16 million people under 14
Population: 125m
‐5% 0% 5%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
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Japan’s Smart-Aging Seniors
Source: Wall Street Journal
Japan - 2050
43% of the population over the age of 60
13 million people under 14
Population: 107m
Robear - Lifter
Pepper – Entertainer/Assistant
Telenoid – Remote Presence
Paro – Calming Therapeutic Robot
‐5% 0% 5%
100+
95‐99
90‐94
85‐89
80‐84
75‐79
70‐74
65‐69
60‐64
55‐59
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
20‐24
15‐19
10‐14
5‐9
0‐4
Japanese GDP
Source: World Bank
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
Per Capita
Japan United States
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
Per Worker
Japan United States
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IBEW Workforce
Source: IBEW10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%
60+
55‐60
50‐54
45‐49
40‐44
35‐39
30‐34
25‐29
18‐25
IBEW Workforce
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
IBEW Pensioners
II. Automation
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Long-Term Productivity
Source: Fred.stlouisfed.org
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Growth in U.S. GDP per Hour Worked
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Out
put I
ndex
Agr
icul
ture
Em
ploy
men
tEmployment in U.S. Agriculture
Automation – The Challenge
Source: Fred.stlouisfed.org
An automated auto assembly line in a Hyundai plant.
250
450
650
850
1,050
1,250
1,450
1,650
1,850
2,050
2,250
-
5
10
15
20
25
Out
put
Inde
x
Mill
ions
of
Jobs
U.S. Manufacturing
Employment Output
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Automation – The Challenge
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Candidates for Automation:• 4.3 million drivers
• 3.9 million warehouse workers
• 3.5 million cashiers
• 4.6 million retail sales people
• …
White-Collar Automation – Call Centers
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Automation – The Opportunity
Automation – The Opportunity
Electrical infrastructure in Sabey Data Center Property
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Zet
taby
tes
per
Yea
r
Data Center IP Traffic
Source: Cisco Global Cloud index
Cisco projects 13% annual growth in data center traffic
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III. Climate Change
Climate Change Consensus
1. Scientists: 97% of scientists agree that the climate is warming due to human activity.
2. Department of Defense: Climate change threatens the majority of mission critical bases.
3. Trump Administration: In November 2018, the Trump administration released reported that climate change is already causing damage to American’s health and the economy and is intensifying.
Source: climate.nasa.gov, www.militarytimes.com
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Challenge – Climate Change
Source: NASA
200
250
300
350
400
450
(0.80)
(0.60)
(0.40)
(0.20)
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
CO
2 C
once
ntra
tion
Deg
rees
Cel
sius
abo
ve m
ean
Average Global Termperature
Temperature CO2 Concentration
Sea Level Chart
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Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise
NOAA: Sea level risen 8 inches since 1900
NOAA: Currently rising 3mm per Year
NOAA: Potential to rise up to 6 feet by 2100
Rise is likely already “Locked In”
7.7 million people currently live within 6 feet of high tide in the U.S.
– 4 million in Florida
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, IOP Science: 2012 Environ. Res. Lett.
The Front Lines of Climate ChangeAlaska
Several towns in Alaska have voted to relocate
Cost estimates ~ $100 million for several hundred people
None have so far been able to raise funding to move
Louisiana Community on Isle de Jean
Charles in 2016 received $48 million HUD grant to relocate 30 miles inland
Kivalina, AK – Voted to relocate in 2015
Shishmaref, AK – Voted to relocate in August 2016
U.S. 1.4 million people live on barrier
islands in the U.S. usually just a few feet above sea level
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Miami Beach – Barrier IslandMiami Beach Population – 90,000
Average Elevation – 4.4 feet
50% below 2.2 ft. – below current high tide
Commercial RE – 70 million SF
NPI assets – $700 million
2015 Hired a Chief Resilience Officer
Currently spending $400 million to raise streets, improve pumping and drainage
Limestone limits use of pumps and seawalls
Defenses
South Florida/Miami
Sources: NOAA, Costar GroupProjects Under Development
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Climate Change – Challenge
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
PG&E Stock Price
PG&E Stock Price Camp Fire
Bankruptcy
Climate Change - Challenge
• Dust storms in Arizona
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Climate Change – Challenge
Climate Change – Challenge
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Climate Change – SolutionParis Agreement Goal: Keep global temperature rise
below 2 degrees Celsius
195 signatories
Every country sets own goals in order to reduce emissions
Emissions Goals Zero Emissions targets:
Europe
Canada
Mexico
New Zealand
Near-term goals:
U.S.: 26% cut by 2025
Europe: 40% cut by 2030, 100% by 2050
China: Emission peak in 2030
Climate Change – SolutionActual Results Coal usage has been falling
worldwide
Not as fast as goals require
CO2 emissions rose everywhere in the world—except Europe
2018 set a record high for CO2 emissions
Radical change needed to avoid worst aspects of climate change
China
Advanced Economies
Other Emerging
Meg
aton
s of
coa
l
Global Coal Demand
4.7
9.2
2.1
4.0
11.1
4.8
9.4
2.2
3.9
11.2
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
U.S. China India Europe Rest ofWorld
Bill
ion
s o
f To
ns
of C
O2
CO2 Emissions
2017 2018
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Climate Change – Converting the Grid
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500Te
raw
att-
Hou
rsU.S. Electrical Energy Production
Fossil Fuels Nuclear Hydro Other Renewable
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Climate Change – Changing Grid
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration
0
50
100
150
200
250
Tera
wat
t-H
ours
Wind Power
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Climate Change – Changing Grid
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Tera
wat
t-H
ours
Solar Energy Growth
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Climate Change – Changing Grid
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Climate Change – Changing Grid
Climate Change – Changing Grid
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Climate Change – Changing Grid
Climate Change – Nuclear
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Tril
lion
Btu
Total Nuclear Energy Usage in U.S.
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Climate Change – Electric Vehicles
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Tril
lion
Btu
U.S. Energy Usage
Electricity Gasoline
Challenge – Electric Vehicle Infrastructure
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Climate Change – Home Energy
Climate Change – Electric Planes
Existing Electric Aircraft
Future Electric Aircraft
Status Existing electric planes can hold two
adults and fly for an hour
Recharge fully in 45 minutes
Used primarily for teaching and demonstration
Goals
Norway expects to have all short hall flights to be electric by 2040
Airbus would like to manufacture and electric short-hall plane by 2030
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Climate Change – New horizons
Electricity Generating Speed Bumps
Sidewalks
New Transportation
Solar Pan Skin
Desalination PlantsTampa Bay One of the largest desalination plant
in the U.S.
Produces 10% of region’s water
14 megawatt peak power demand
Located adjacent to existing power plant – uses excess heat from cooling water
Climate Change
Climate change will force more cities in deserts and near coasts to rely on sea water –
Under Construction in California, Florida, Texas and Arizona
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Carbon Capture
Carbon Bricks could be outputClimeworks carbon capture turbines in Switzerland
Status There is no significant market or
mandate for carbon capture
Startups are busily lowering the cost of the process hoping a market will emerge
Carbon Capture – Synthetic Oil
Status Carbon Engineering producing small
amounts of synthetic fuel in British Columbia
Could be economical with a $200/ton of carbon tax
Carbon Engineering Plan, BC
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Challenge – Opportunity
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000T
rillio
n B
tuTotal Energy Usage in U.S.
Electricity All Other Usage
62%
38%
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Climate Change – Moving Cities
Miami
New York
Boston
Seattle
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The Disruptors
I. Demographic Trendsa. Challenge – aging workforceb. Opportunity – robotics and automation
II. Automationa. Challenge – unemploymentb. Opportunity – more electrical work, data centers
III. Climate Changea. Challenge – sea level rise, storms, diseaseb. Opportunity – massive rebuilding and expansion of electrical infrastructure
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Company End Notes1. National commenced operations on January 1, 2010. National was the result of a spin-out of an internal division of the NEBF. Substantially all personnel, including all senior management,
transitioned from NEBF Real Estate to National. 2. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training. National is a registered investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission
(SEC). The SEC does not endorse, indemnity or guarantee National’s business practice, selling methods, the class or types of securities offered, or any specific security. 3. Property-Level Gross Asset Value (GAV) is based on property-level unleveraged values for real estate investments. The reported GAV is based on the "as is" value (including properties in
development) per the most recent property appraisal, and includes working capital and other adjustments such as lender and capital reserves and construction costs spent. However, the GAV for debt (senior and subordinate loans) investments is reported as the fair value of the loan, as opposed to the fair value of the underlying collateral (property). The GAV (Pro Rata) at Market is the ownership % interest of the Property-Level GAV.
a. Fund’s Share Property-Level GAV: The Fund’s share of GAV is reported at the Fund’s economic interest in the investment, which takes into consideration any applicable preferred returns and/or promoted interests, per the partnership operating agreements (if not wholly owned).
b. Fund-level GAV: Fund-Level GAV represents the Fund's economic interest in real estate investments, cash, cash equivalents, and other Fund assets as defined by National. More information can be provided upon request.
4. Net Asset Value (NAV): Net assets under management are calculated using the Fund’s Share Property-Level NAV of investments, plus cash and other assets and liabilities. The calculation is explained further below:
a. Property-Level NAV for Equity Investments: For equity investments, the Property-Level NAV equals the Property-Level GAV less marked-to-market debt.
b. Property-Level NAV for Debt Investments: The NAV for mezzanine and debt (senior and subordinate loans) investments is reported as the fair value of the loan.
c. Fund’s Market Value aka Fund’s Share Property-Level NAV: The Fund’s share of NAV is reported at the Fund’s economic interest in the investment, which takes into consideration any applicable preferred returns and/or promoted interests, per the partnership operating agreements (if not wholly owned).
5. Property-Level Loan-to-Value Ratio (LTV): For equity investments, the LTV reflects the aggregate of the property-level debt divided by the aggregate of the Property-Level GAV as previously defined.
6. National Real Estate Development, LLC is a subsidiary of National Real Estate Advisors, LLC and was established in June 2013 to offer a full spectrum of development related services as well as consulting and advisory services to investors, joint venture partners, and developers, and to provide technical expertise and project oversight capabilities.
7. National is an independently operated subsidiary of the National Electrical Benefit Fund, a substantial pension trust with a significant amount of assets managed by National on a discretionary basis.
8. Leverage percentage is calculated using NCREIF PREA Reporting Standards for Fund T1 Leverage. This calculation includes debt investments, cash and other net assets. The NCREIF PREA Reporting Standards are co-sponsored by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) and the Pension Real Estate Association (PREA).
9. National defines Operating Properties as defined by NCREIF PREA Reporting Standards: All existing properties that are purchased, regardless of current occupancy, are defined as operating properties. For a newly developed property, operating is defined as reaching 60% occupancy or having been available for occupancy for a year from its certificate of occupancy. If a property has been recently purchased with a "redevelopment" strategy and the property is undergoing substantial expansion, re-tenanting, rehabilitation or remodeling, the property is defined as operating when occupancy reaches 60%.
10. The particular investments identified and described herein do not represent all of the investments purchased, sold or recommended for the Fund. The reader should not assume an investment in the assets identified was or will be profitable.
Performance End Notes1. The INDURE Real Estate Asset Return is different than the INDURE Fund Return as it is calculated before factoring in other assets and liabilities on INDURE’s balance sheet.
INDURE Real Estate Asset Returns are reported gross of fees only as INDURE fees are deducted at the Fund level and are not allocated at the individual asset level. Performance includes reinvestment of all income. INDURE real estate investments are valued in accordance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS) and NCREIF PREA Reporting Standards.
2. National compares the Fund’s performance and property returns to three indices (the “Blended Benchmark”). INDURE equity returns are compared to the National Property Index (NPI) prepared by NCREIF; INDURE permanent loan returns are compared to the Giliberto-Levy Commercial Mortgage Performance Index (Aggregate Sector); and INDURE construction loan returns are compared to 30-day LIBOR rates +150 bps. Please note an investor cannot invest in any of the indices.
3. INDURE Equity is comprised of mezzanine and direct equity investments in joint ventures, commingled funds, and 100% owned assets with varying amounts of leverage. INDURE Equity, Permanent Loans and Construction Loans are sub-categories of INDURE Real Estate Assets.
4. INDURE Permanent Loans are comprised of investments in permanent mortgages and commingled funds secured by a first lien position on commercial, income producing properties.
5. INDURE Construction Loans are comprised of investments in senior loans secured by the first lien on an unbuilt, partially built or finished property where the collateral does not generate sufficient income to support a permanent, senior mortgage.
6. The Blended Benchmark is calculated by weighting the corresponding time-weighted capital for the quarter. Prior to 4Q10, the blended benchmark used 30 day LIBOR instead of 30 day LIBOR + 150 bps.
7. The INDURE Fund Return is calculated after factoring in other assets and liabilities on INDURE’s balance sheet. The INDURE Fund Return is calculated both gross of fees and net of fees. These fees include the management fee and incentive fee paid to National.
8. An Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is calculated on all assets within the INDURE Build-to-Core Fund. IRR Definition: The discount rate often used in capital budgeting that makes the net present value of all cash flows from a particular project equal to zero.
9. Past performance does not indicate, predict, or guarantee future results.
10. Performance returns: The annualized time-weighted returns are calculated using quarterly investment level data geometrically linked to form annual returns and based on the INDURE ownership interests plus cash and other non-real estate assets and liabilities. The quarterly return calculations use the Modified Dietz formula and are consistent with the time-weighted return methodologies prescribed by GIPS. INDURE performance calculations are based on the NCREIF PREA Reporting Standards (Reporting Standards) guidelines for performance returns calculation and presentation. The Reporting Standards are co-sponsored by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) and the Pension Real Estate Association (PREA).
11. National’s GIPS Compliance has been independently verified for the periods January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2017. The verification report is available upon request.
12. To obtain a compliant presentation and/or the firm’s list of composite descriptions, please contact Sam Bendix, Managing Director, Investor Relations (847.271.7735 | [email protected]) or Heather Fernstrom Border, Managing Director, Investor Relations (202.997.4844 | [email protected]).
For Reference of NECA Now 2019 Attendees Only 30
DisclaimerFor the avoidance of doubt, this information is confidential and proprietary and is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities, investment product or investment advisory services, including interests in National’s INDURE Build-to-Core Fund (the “Fund”). This presentation is subject to a more complete description and does not contain all of the information necessary to make an investment decision, including, but not limited to, the risks, fees and investment strategies of the Fund. Any offering is made only pursuant to the relevant information memorandum, together with the current financial statements of the respective Fund, if available, and a relevant subscription application, all of which must be read in their entirety. No offer to purchase interests will be made or accepted prior to receipt by an offeree of these documents and the completion of all appropriate documentation. All investors must be “accredited investors” and “qualified purchasers” as defined in the securities laws before they can invest in the Fund. This presentation is not an advertisement and is not intended for public use or distribution and is intended exclusively for the use of the person to whom it has been delivered by National. Distribution of this material to any person other than the person to whom this material was originally delivered and to such person’s advisors is unauthorized and any reproduction of this material, in whole or in part, or the divulgence of any of this content, without the prior consent of National is expressly prohibited.This material has been prepared from original sources and data believed to be reliable. No representations are made as to the accuracy or completeness thereof. An investment in the Fund involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for sophisticated investors. No representation is being made that any investor or account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. The value of investments can go down as well as up. A loss of principal can occur.The information provided herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. National does not assume any responsibility for, or make any representation or warranty, express or implied as to the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information contained herein or for the omission of any information relating thereto and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or representation as to past or future performance. We assume no obligation to provide you with updates or changes to this data asassumptions, economic and market conditions, models or other matters change.National Real Estate Advisors, LLC is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser. The SEC does not endorse, indemnity or guarantee National’s business practice, selling methods, the class or types of securities offered, or any specific security. Registration of an investment adviser does not imply any level of skill or training.All information is sourced from National Real Estate Advisors, LLC unless otherwise noted.
Questions? Thank you!
Up Next: 11:45 amLunch in Ballroom Lawn
Plenary Session: 12:45 – 1:45 pmWhen Good Jobs Go Bad - Neil Swidey
in Grand Canyon Ballroom
Please fill out the online evaluation for this session: www.necanet.org/NNSurvey2019
www.na tadv i so r s . c om
