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ARECS: ADVANCING RENEWABLE ENERGY with CLIMATE SERVICES Melanie Davis, Climate Services for Renewable Energy GEO European Project Workshop, 15 th April 2013, Barcelona
ARECS: ADVANCING RENEWABLE ENERGY
with CLIMATE SERVICES
Melanie Davis, Climate Services for Renewable EnergyGEO European Project Workshop, 15th April 2013, Barcelona
ARECS:Advancing Renewable Energy with Climate Services
CLIMATE FORECASTING UNIT (CFU)
Facilitate mid to long-term planning, investment, and innovation for the wind & solar energy sector.
Advance the availability, accuracy & usefulness of seasonal to decadal wind & solar forecasts.
WHAT?
HOW?
To understand & manage risks & opportunities of future wind & solar resource variability.
WHY?
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
ARECS – Seasonal Forecasts
- Contingency plans
- Early-warning systems
- Instruction to power plant manager, grid operator, investor
- Assess “load schedule”- Mobilise resources- Prepare measures
ARECS3 mths 1 mth
Mid-term, operational decisions: Production forecasting; Energy transport, balance, trade, maintenance; Extreme events
Image: Catherine Vaughan
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
ARECS – Decadal Forecasts
Long-term, strategic decisions: Energy Infrastructure planning (“Smart Grid”); Renewable Investment: site selection, portfolio; Policy making.
Identifying areas that are most vulnerable to climate variability over
seasonal to decadal timescales.
RESEARCH INITIATIVES
CLIMRUN: Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region: Responding to User Needs
EUPORIAS: EUropean Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale
SPECS: Seasonal to decadal climate predictions for the improvement of European Climate Services
European Climate Services R&D
ECOMS: European Climate Observations,
Modelling and Services
Horizon 2020EERA: European Energy
Research Association
CLIMATE ENERGY
National Climate Services R&D:ARECS: Advancing Renewable Energy with Climate Services
FP7: EUPORIAS
FP7: SPECS
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES
ARECS Funding tbc.(COSTCLIMATE KIC, FP7)
GEO EN-01CL-01
CLIMATE FORECASTING UNIT (CFU)
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
1. Identify the areas that are most vulnerable to seasonal variability.
2. Assess how the global forecast system can identify the areas in obj.1
3. Assess how well the global forecast system can reproduce the "observed" variable at specific times from global to local scales.
ARECS OBJECTIVES
M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert, V.Guemas, CLIMRUN WP7.
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
Ensemble-mean correlation of 10m wind speed for ECMWF S4- one month lead Winter (December, January, February)- start dates once a year on 1st November from 1981-2010
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
Forecast skill maps to assess the ability to predict wind resource variability
CLIMATE FORECASTING UNIT (CFU)
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
1. Identify the areas that are most vulnerable to seasonal variability.
2. Assess how the global forecast system can identify the areas in obj.1
3. Assess how well the global forecast system can reproduce the "observed" variable at specific times from global to local scales.
4. Analyse the future impact of variable renewable energy generation on i) existing and new power networks and ii) energy investment.
5. Engage and communicate with end users to demonstrate the value of seasonal to decadal forecasts in renewable energy decision making.
ARECS OBJECTIVES
M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert, V.Guemas, CLIMRUN WP7.
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
Probability forecasts of 10m wind speed from ECMWF S4- one month lead Winter forecast (December, January, February)- start date on 1st November 2011
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
3-month forecast
Operational probabilistic forecasts to assess the risk of wind resource variability
1-month forecast
M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert, V.Guemas, CLIMRUN WP7.
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
Quantifying wind energy yields, uncertainty & value using energy & economic 'impact' models
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
ARECS END USERS
END USERS BENEFIT
Resource assessment services / Insurance Business opportunity
Utilities (power plant and grid operators) Risk management & improved operations
Energy investors Risk management
Energy policy makers Planning strategy
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.LienertClimate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
ARECS OUTCOMES
- Optimisation in the efficiency of solar and wind energy operations
- Harmonisation of resource forecast activities across all timescales and industries
- Establishment of a basic approach to resource forecasting and communications for solar and wind energy
- Stimulate new business opportunities in energy resource forecasting
Melanie Davis Climate Services for Renewable Energy
GEO European Project Workshop, 15th April 2013, Barcelona
