1. MEDESS-4MS Project Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety Michela De Dominicis1 and the MEDESS4MS partners (1) INGV, Is8tuto Nazionale di Geosica e Vulcanologia (Gruppo Nazionale di Oceanograa Opera8va, Bologna) Italy)

2. OVERVIEW S Project outline and partnership S The MEDESS4MS system and service scenarios S The oil spill model MEDSLIK-II and its applica8on to the Costa Concordia emergency case

3. PROJECT OUTLINE MEDESS4MS is dedicated to the mari8me risks preven8on and strengthening of mari8me safety related to oil spill pollu8on in the Mediterranean. MEDESS-4MS will deliver an integrated opera8onal mul8 model oil spill predic8on service in the Mediterranean using the well established oil spill modelling systems, the na8onal ocean forecas8ng systems and to be connected to the exis8ng monitoring plaWorms (CSN, AIS). h_p://www.medess4ms.eu Project start: 01/02/2012 - Project end: 31/01/2015

4. PARTNERSHIP Seven of the project partners are opera8ng during the last 10 years forecas8ng centers, while six partners are providing individually oil spill predic8ons at local and sub-regional level, in close coopera8on with their na8onal opera8onal response agencies. Ins8tu8onal partners and users are involved in the partnership.

5. MEDESS4MS SYSTEM Oceanographi Meteorological c analyses and analyses and forecasts forecast (ECMWF (GMES MCS and MOON) Oil spill satellite and MOON) monitoring system (SAR) and AIS OIL SPILL models for FORECASTING WEB INTERFACE interactive access to the multi-model service scenarios Institutional/operational users

6. MEDESS4MS Service Scenarios The MEDESS-4MS services will be delivered through 3 service scenarios (SS), in order to assist opera8onal response agencies. SS1 Real 8me Automa8c simula8ons using satellite images This scenario concerns the opera8onal monitoring and forecas8ng of the Mediterranean Sea, in order to connect 8mely detected oil slicks to oil spill models, and provide rapid predic8ons of the movement of spilled oil. The scenario will be designed for the Users with opera8onal responsibility, like Coast Guards.

7. MEDESS4MS Service Scenarios SS2 Delayed mode Oine simula8ons in the past. This scenario is mainly aimed at o-line processing of past observa8ons, performing a large number of simula8ons randomly varying the environmental data used to transport the oil. In the framework of this scenario one can determine most likely spill paths for spills on a monthly and seasonal basis and simulate probabili8es of oiling the water surface and shorelines. The scenario allows the risk assessment of a par8cular site to oil spills. This solu8on is intended for the use of REMPEC and generic users.

8. MEDESS4MS Service Scenarios SS3 Management of emergency Real 8me simula8ons done by the users (for example REMPEC or ITCG). This scenario is mainly devoted to assist the decision makers involved in real 8me management of emergency opera8ons. The services will allow the users to launch, by the User Interface, a set of simula8on using dierent oil spill models and meteo-marine forecast data.

9. MEDESS4MS hydrodynamic forecas8ng systems

10. MEDESS4MS atmospheric and wave forecas8ng systems Geographical coverage of the MEDESS4MS atmospheric forecas8ng systems Geographical coverage of the MEDESS4MS wave forecas8ng systems

11. MEDESS4MS OIL SPILL MODELS

12. The MEDSLIK-II oil spill model The oil spill model code MEDSLIK-II, based on its precursor oil spill model MEDSLIK is a freely available community model. h_p://gnoo.bo.ingv.it/MEDSLIKII The development of the MEDSLIK-II model is supported by a formal agreement (Memorandum of Agreement for the Opera8on and Con8nued Development of MEDSLIK-II) signed by: The code is now freely available under the GNU Free Sofware License with the aim of a_rac8ng a cri8cal mass of scien8sts and users: to contribute to the development of the code to use the model in very dierent condi8ons and check its performance

13. Features of the MEDSLIK-II model q MEDSLIK-II uses a lagrangian representa8on of the oil slick. q MEDSLIK-II predicts the transport and diusion and oil transforma8on processes due to complex physical and chemical processes occurring in the sea- water at the surface. q MEDSLIK-II includes a proper representa8on of high frequency currents, the wave induced currents and wind elds in the advec8ve components of the lagrangian trajectory model. q MEDSLIK-II has been coupled with the remote-sensing data.

14. ADVECTION DIFFUSION PROCESSES ) )) ] [ wt( d +, x x Ud (, (x tx U = ,( U (x + t t )) c + t sd EULERIAN CURRENTS WIND CORRECTION WAVE CORRECTION TURBULENCE MEDSLIK-II in Italy can use the currents elds provided by: SCRM Sicilian Channel WMED Western Mediterranean Regional Model Regional Model (CNR-IAMC) MFS Mediterranean Forecasting system (CNR-IAMC) (INGV) 1/32x1/32, ~3.5 1/32x1/32, ~3.5 Km 1/16x1/16 ~ 6Km Km AFS Adriatic Forecasting Tyrrhenian Sea Relocatable model system Model (INGV) (INGV) 1/45x1/45 ~ 2.2Km (ENEA) 1 - 3 Km 1/48x1/48, ~2 Km

15. Italian Coast Guard- MEDSLIK-II Oil Spill forecas8ng system Meteo-Oceanographic data download The ITCG oil spill forecas8ng system downloads every day the Mediterranean Forecas8ng System and the Adria8c Forecas8ng System model outputs and ECMWF winds. MEDSLIK-II with Graphical User Interface for the input and output visualiza8on

16. Simula8ons of possible oil spill scenarios Date of accident: 13/01/2012. The boat contained 2500 tons of oil (API 17). Every day (since 16/01/2012) a bulle8n has been produced with the possible scenario of pollu8on, the following week the produc8on of the mul8-model model bulle8n started. The release of oil has been assumed constant during the 72 hours of simula8on.

17. GNOO supported the Italian Coast Guard in the produc8on of their Bulle8n

18. Italian mul8-model bullejn (INGV, CNR-IAMC e ENEA)

19. Italian mul8-model bullejn (INGV, CNR-IAMC e ENEA)MFS (INGV) WMED (CNR-IAMC) TYRR (ENEA) 6.5 km 3.5 km 2km

20. Italian mul8-model bullejn (INGV, CNR-IAMC e ENEA)MFS (INGV) WMED (CNR-IAMC) TYRR (ENEA) 6.5 km 3.5 km 2km

21. INGV had acces to the data of the drifers deployed in the framework of the ARGOMARINE project (thanks to CIMA- University of the Algarve, CNR- IRST and Parco Nazionale Arcipelago Toscano) The 4 drifers (SPHERE) released the 14 of February 2012 have been simulated using the MEDSLIK-II model coupled with MFS, TYRR, WMED and the relocatable model.

22. Relocatable model Nes.ng The relocatable model produces high horizontal resolu8on currents and can be nested in any area of the Mediterranean Sea. 3 km model implementa8on, nested in the Mediterranean Forecas8ng System (MFS) MFS 3km27/11/12

23. Relocatable model Nes.ng EXP1: No Islands, Start = 14 Feb EXP2: Giglio+Giannutri Islands, Start = 14 Feb MFS EXP3: Giglio+Giannutri Islands, Start = 13 Feb EXP4: Giglio+Giannutri Islands, Start = 12 Feb

24. CURRENTS Drifer 1 MFS: blue TYRR: yellow WME: green Relocatable: pink Real drters: red CURRENTS + STOKES DRIFT CURRENTS + STOKES DRIFT + WIND

25. Final remarks S MEDESS4MS will provide an mul8-model oil spill service to strengthen the European/na8onal/regional response chain for accidental spills and deliberate discharges from ships. S MEDESS4MS does not aim at developing new elementary service chains but will integrate and consolidate the exis8ng ones, based on the experience gained through the interac8on with opera8onal response agencies, REMPEC and EMSA during real oil spill incidents in the region and the demonstra8ons and inter-calibra8on exercises carried out in the framework of EC projects. S The oil spill forecast accuracy usually increases with high resolu8on eulerian currents. S MEDSLIK-II is today available at basin scale allowing a possible support to oil spill emergencies in the en8re Mediterranean basin.