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AmericAs
Americas prices Timing Low High mid ±
Benzene ¢/USG
fob USGC contract Jan 322.00 322.00 322.00 -13.00
USGC spot Prompt* 313.00 318.00 315.50 +8.50
Styrene ¢/lb
fob USGC contract Dec 77.65 84.20 80.93 +4.75
fob USGC spot Prompt* 55.79 55.79 55.79 0.00
fob USGC VWA Dec 54.43 0.00
USGC large buyer index Dec 55.01 0.00
Cumene formula ¢/lb
fob USGC contract Dec 44.56 44.56 44.56 -0.40
Phenol ¢/lb
fob USGC contract Dec 63.24 66.75 65.00 -0.17
Cyclohexane ¢/USG
fob USGC contract Jan 307.65 307.65 307.65 -10.73
Marker with NG escalator Jan 289.46 289.46 289.46 -11.80
*Prompt refers to current month, but if the publication date is on or after the 15th of a given month, then the spot posting will include current month and next month trades
Benchmark margins ¢/USGmargin ±
BTX US reformate extraction vs floor contract 46.68 -6.54
BTX US reformate extraction vs floor spot 45.75 -3.47
BT US reformate extraction vs floor contract 54.54 -17.68
BT US reformate extraction vs floor spot 52.91 -12.31
Us BZ margins via toluene (NG) conversion ¢/USG
-150
-75
0
75
150
Jan 15 Aug 15 Mar 16 Oct 16 May 17 Dec 17
HDA TDP STDP
Us benzene contract price $/USG
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
Jan 17 Mar 17 May 17 Jul 17 Sep 17 Nov 17
BenzeneThe benzene weekly spot was assessed in the 313 - 318¢/USG range, representing a rise of 8.5¢/USG from last week in thin trading. All transactions reported were done for January deliv-ery. The benzene contract price for January in the US settled at 322¢/USG last week with producers and consumers agreeing to one single price for the first time since July of 2017. The contract represented a fall of 4pc from December.
Monthly benzene contract price negotiators regularly failed to reach a consensus settlement last year. The chart above tracks the median of monthly contract settlements, ranging from a low of $2.485/USG in August to a high of $3.35/USG in December. The unusually high settlement in December was the delayed consequence of Hurricane Harvey, which pum-meled the Texas Gulf coast in late August. Because of the storm and its lingering effects on refinery operations and logistics, Texas benzene supplies dropped sharply. Imports from northeast Asia, which would have normally provided ad-ditional supply in the US Gulf, were instead regularly shipped to China. US Styrene plants and other benzene-consuming units normalized their post-hurricane operations more quickly than benzene supplies ramped up and prices surged to their highest level of the year.
Gulf coast refineries are now running at a remarkable 97.0 pc of capacity and additional imports from northeast Asia are expected in January and February. If such refinery operating rates are maintained, benzene inventories will be rebuilt and first quarter prices will likely moderate.
STDP margins have remained positive and have trended
higher since 2016 began. Paraxylene spreads over toluene blend value and widening benzene spreads over feedstock toluene also contributed to the improved financial perfor-mance of those units. TDPs, which yield mixed xylenes and co-product benzene from toluene feed, were slightly profit-able for much of 2017. Incremental operations of HDAs in the
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Issue 18-1 Thursday 4 January 2018 Argus Benzene and Derivatives
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AmericAs
US are now irrelevant. Dow mothballed its large HDA unit in Plaquemine, Louisiana, and other production from those units is a result of configurations at a particular site, not the result of feedstock optimization.
styreneUS styrene cash margins over raw materials averaged $350/t in 2017, the highest level this millennium, and $100/t higher than the average cash margins for 2016. In February, 2017 monthly cash margins surpassed $600/t, the highest level
in recent memory. Styrene prices spiked as consumers and traders scrambled to cover short positions after Cosmar’s 579,000 ton/yr styrene complex went offline unexpect-edly and Amsty took one styrene line down for scheduled maintenance. After both plants restarted, styrene margins dipped below $200/t temporarily and then surged higher due to lower feedstock costs. By year end, margins soft-ened, largely due to surge in post-Hurricane Harvey ben-zene prices. Freely-negotiated contracts in December rose 4.5 - 5¢/lb in average.
Us styrene cash margins $/t
0
150
300
450
600
750
Jan 16 May 16 Sep 16 Jan 17 May 17 Sep 17
UsGc styrene premium to benzene $/t
hhh
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
22 Dec 16 27 Apr 17 31 Aug 17 4 Jan 18
eUrope
europe pricesTiming $/t €/t
Low High Low High
Benzene
cif NWE contract Jan 945.00 945.00 792.00 792.00
cif ARA spot Prompt* 935.00 960.00 776.00 797.00
Styrene
fca Rotterdam contract Dec 1,512.41 1,512.41 1,255.00 1,255.00
fob Rotterdam contract Jan 1,524.46 1,524.46 1,265.00 1,265.00
delivered ARA contract Jan 1,508.80 1,508.80 1,252.00 1,252.00
Cyclohexane
fob ARA contract Jan 1,159.32 1,159.32 962.00 962.00
*Prompt refers to current month, but if the publication date is on or after the 15th of a given month, then the spot posting will include current month and next month trades
BenzeneThe January contract price (CP) was confirmed at $945/t and €792/t, down by $57/t and €55/t from December, respectively. This was based on the EU reference rate of $1.1934:€1, against the $1.1827:€1 used in the December CP settlement. It re-flected the steady fall in spot prices over the past two weeks, coming off from 10-month highs in the first half of December when prompt supply tightened following a spate of production disruptions and heavy exports to the US.
Most of the cracker issues, mainly affecting those in France and Germany, were resolved. The Wesseling cracker in Ger-many is back up and running following an unexpected shut-down caused by technical problems. The refinery and chemical cluster at Berre l’Etang in France resumed normal operations after power supply issues in early December reduced produc-tion at the site. A cracker in Lavera, France, continues to be
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Issue 18-1 Thursday 4 January 2018 Argus Benzene and Derivatives
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cif ARA benzene premium to Eurobob $/t
hhh
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
22 Dec 16 27 Apr 17 31 Aug 17 4 Jan 18
NWE styrene premium to benzene $/t
hhh
200
300
400
500
600
700
29 Jun 17 31 Aug 17 2 Nov 17 4 Jan 18
EU15 monthly mixed aromatics exports to Asia ’000t
0
150
300
450
600
750
Jan 15 Jun 15 Nov 15 Apr 16 Sep 16 Feb 17 Jul 17
— Eurostat
EURopE
affected by unresolved issues. Unipetrol’s Litvinov refinery and cracker in the Czech Republic are expected to return to full capacity in the first half of January. They have been run-ning at reduced rates since a fire at the site on 12 December. The force majeure declared by the company on 14 December remains in place. Crackers across Europe continue to run at high operating rates, owing to attractive export economics and solid demand during a usually slow December market. The cracker turnaround season in 2018 will be relatively lighter than in the previous year. The spring shutdown will begin in March and peak in April, as it did last year, but the affected ethylene capacity will be just over 100,000t against 230,000t in 2017. Refineries and reformers are running steadily, with only limited disruption occurring so far in January. Feedstock pygas is moving to the US, while reformate continues to be shipped to China as part of mixed aromatics cargoes. Europe’s
EU15 monthly benzene trade data ’000t
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Jan 14 Dec 14 Nov 15 Oct 16 Sep 17
expo
rts
impo
rts
— Eurostat
US
South America
North America
North Africa
MEAG
East Med
Africa
Central Europe
East Europe
South Asia
East Asia
exports of mixed aromatics to Asia, mainly to China, reached 696,000t in October, up from 115,500t in September, and was the highest since March 2017, latest Eurostat data show. The rush in shipments was driven by concerns that the Chinese government will start taxing mixed aromatics imports in early 2018, prompting traders to arrange their shipments so that they arrived at Chinese ports by early December, before the Christmas holidays. The Chinese authorities have not given an official update on the proposed tax measure. Shipments of mixed aromatics to the US also rose steadily in 2017. They reached 71,100t in October, bringing the 10-month total to al-most 500,000t and exceeding annual 2016 exports of 320,000t.
Almost 70,000t of benzene left western Europe for the US in September-October. The arbitrage opened from September through November after hurricane-related production shut-downs tightened US supply. The outflow was partly offset by
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EuropE
increased imports from south Asia, mainly India, of 32,500t in October from 3,500t in September, or a monthly average of 20,000-25,000t since June when India’s Reliance brought its expanded capacity on stream. There were also steady ben-zene shipments from the Mediterranean and the Red Sea into western Europe, reaching 34,000t and 15,000t in October, or a monthly average of more than 22,000t and 19,000t over the January-October period, respectively.
Spot prices have fallen for the third week in a row in a heavily backwardated market, a structure that is likely to persist in the first quarter of 2018 as a result of reduced con-sumption caused by scheduled downstream styrene shutdowns. Overall trading has generally been light during a shortened working week, particularly for February, with the holiday sea-son continuing in eastern Europe and many participants yet to return from their Christmas/new year break. January cargoes traded at $935-950/t, broadly in line with contract values. Product for first half of January delivery changed hands at $960/t, and possibly higher, amid persisting tightness in some areas. No deals were reported for February, which is showing a $15-25/t discount to January.
Benzene spot prices drew some support from firm up-stream crude and naphtha markets. North Sea Dated crude breached the $68/bl mark on 4 January, the highest since December 2014. Geopolitical concerns arising from days of anti-government protests in Iran and increased energy demand in the US because of freezing weather supported crude prices, offsetting the effect of the restart of the North Sea For-ties pipeline system following a three-week outage. Naphtha tracked crude and has stayed close to $600/t, peaking at $594.50/t on 3 January, the highest since November 2014. Spot benzene’s premium to naphtha and crude remains well above $300/t and $400/t so far in January. It averaged $410/t and $503/t in December, bringing the 2017 average to $374/t and $450/t, respectively.
StyreneThe January contract price was confirmed at €1,265/t, up by €10/t from December and the highest since October 2017. This reflected bullish sentiment for the first quarter of 2018 when planned maintenance shutdowns globally are expected to tighten supply. The contract negotiations happened at a time when spot prices had fallen steadily over the previous two to three weeks and the euro was at a three-year high against the
US dollar. Prompt prices were above $1,300/t in mid-Decem-ber, levels unseen since September 2017, following steep gains in feedstock benzene and Chinese styrene markets. The euro breached the $1.20:€1 mark, peaking at 1.2065 on 2 Janu-ary, the highest in three years, reflecting the EU’s buoyant macroeconomic fundamentals. The January CP for feedstock ethylene was agreed at €1,057/t, unchanged from December, partly reflecting a broadly stable feedstock market.
Spot prices were generally steady in a thinly discussed market this week as many participants have yet to return from their Christmas/new year holiday. Some January cargoes traded at $1,260-1,275/t, below net contract values. Sellers have gradually reduced their January offers from $1,300/t early on to $1,270-1,275/t later in the week, while buying indications were usually $30-40/t below offers. February was mostly discussed at a $10-20/t premium to January. No Febru-ary deals were reported. March is tentatively showing a $20-30/t premium to prompt values.
The prompt market in Europe is well supplied. Domestic production is high as styrene and SMPO units continue to run well to meet stockbuilding demand down the polymers chain. Continuing cracker issues at Unipetrol did not impact on sty-rene and ethylbenzene production in central Europe. Margins remain healthy, with the spot styrene-benzene spread averag-ing $330/t so far in January, against $300/t in December and $408/t in 2017. US cargoes continue to head to Europe despite limited arbitrage opportunities. Many of these shipments were diverted from Asia/China on the back of continuing anti-dumping duty investigations. An estimated 30,000-40,000t of
Eu15 monthly styrene trade data ’000t
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Jan 14 Dec 14 Nov 15 Oct 16 Sep 17
expo
rts
impo
rts
— Eurostat
US
South America
North America
North Africa
MEAG
East Med
Africa
Central Europe
East Europe
South Asia
East Asia
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EuropE
styrene from the US arrived in Europe in December, and at least 40,000t are expected in January. Styrene imports from the US more than doubled to 33,100t in October from 15,300t in September and 13,000t a year earlier, latest Eurostat data show. They totalled 184,100t in January-October, down from 270,000t a year earlier, following unplanned shutdowns in the US in the first and third quarters of 2017.
Downstream, polymers demand is buoyant, prompting some styrene producers to raise their January polystyrene prices by €20/t, double the increase in feedstock styrene values. Suppliers also raised ABS prices in January, by €50/t, in line with the hike in feedstock butadiene values. Consumption down the chain is being supported by the continued economic recovery in Europe. The eurozone December manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index was 60.6, above November’s 60.1 and the highest since the survey began in June 1997. New orders rose to a near-record pace, while purchasing growth hit a new peak as companies prepared for higher production, set-ting the scene for a strong start to 2018.
Rhine water levels have been unusually high since the start of the year, exceeding 400cm early this week, and are
expected to breach the 500cm level over the weekend. They could bring barge traffic on parts of the river to a standstill later in the week, leading to temporary shortfalls at Rhine storage facilities and reducing outflows from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub.
CyclohexaneThe January CP for cyclohexane was assessed at €962/t, down by €50/t from December. It took into account the decline in the feedstock benzene CP and the CX delta contract for the first quarter of 2018, which was agreed at €170/t, up by €5/t from the fourth quarter of 2017 and returning to the level seen in the third quarter of 2017, when it reached a three-year high.
phenolThe phenol reference price for January was assessed at €1,252/t, down by €55/t from December. It reflected the decline in feedstock benzene contract values. The January CP for feedstock propylene rose by €20/t to €912/t, reflecting tight supply caused by production issues and solid downstream demand.
AsiA-pACifiC
BenzeneThe strength in upstream futures, coupled with the late week increase in the US market, supported benzene to near $900/t fob South Korea again this week. Sentiment also improved in China with the fall in coastal inventories, while smaller down-stream sectors like phenol and methylene diphenyl diisocya-nate (MDI) continued to be robust.
Trading started at a slow pace in the region, with many industry participants still expected to return from year-end holidays. But February prices rose to $883-885/t on 2 Janu-ary, up from last week’s close and remained at these levels at the week’s close. The contango structure for February/March deepened with the intermonth value at minus $3/t on aver-age. Demand from China and the US is expected to fall around February with holidays for the lunar new year and increased exports from Asia.
Liquidity on a cfr China basis was limited with the fob-cfr spread remaining below breakeven at about $10/t. Freight costs have fallen since December, but remain at about $25/t
to load 3,000t cargoes from South Korea to east China main ports. Discussions for prompt cargoes on a cfr basis firmed to about $900/t by the week’s close from $880-890/t at the end of last week. Sentiment in the Chinese domestic market improved with prices for crude-based benzene rising above im-ported cargo prices after being undervalued for the majority of the period since August 2017. Ex-tank prices firmed to 6,950 yuan/t ex-tank or $896/t on an import parity basis. Coal-based benzene prices were discounted versus prices for crude-based benzene and were at Yn6,875/t DEL or $886/t, despite the curb on production within the domestic market. Sinopec main-tained its listed prices at Yn6,900/t or $889/t after reducing them by Yn200/t last week.
Fundamentals are starting to improve in Asia again with Chinese demand expected to be stable to firm in the coming days. The majority of consumers are operating at high rates, with only Wanhua having a routine turnaround at its Ningbo-based MDI plant. It is due to resume operations from mid-January. Benzene demand from the phenol sector is expected
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South Korea benzene premium to Japan naphtha $/t
hhh
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
22 Dec 16 27 Apr 17 31 Aug 17 4 Jan 18
Asia-Pacific prices $/tTiming Low High Mid ±
Benzene
cfr South Korea contract Jan 885.00 888.76 886.88 +18.62
cfr Taiwan contract Jan 885.00 899.76 892.38 +19.62
cfr Asean contract Jan 885.00 901.76 893.38 +18.12
fob South Korea Feb 875.00 885.00 880.00 +12.00
fob South Korea Mar 880.00 890.00 885.00 +17.50
fob South Korea Marker 883.00 +17.56
cfr China spot Prompt 880.00 900.00 890.00 +12.50
cfr China month avg Dec 891.60 903.20 897.40 na
fob southeast Asia Prompt 865.00 875.00 870.00 +7.00
ex-tank E China Yn/t Prompt 6,900 7,000 6,950 +100.00
ex-tank E China Prompt 889.99 902.89 896.44 +17.78
ex-works Sinopec Yn/t Prompt 6,900 0.00
ex-works Sinopec Prompt 889.99 -20.73
Styrene
cfr Taiwan contract Dec 1,294.90 1,294.90 1,294.90 +43.10
cfr China Jan 1,325.00 1,365.00 1,345.00 +30.00
cfr China Feb 1,320.00 1,360.00 1,340.00 +27.50
cfr China Marker 1,339.38 +41.25
fob South Korea Jan 1,290.00 1,330.00 1,310.00 +30.00
fob South Korea Feb 1,285.00 1,325.00 1,305.00 +27.50
fob South Korea Marker 1,304.38 +41.25
ex-tank China Yn/t Prompt 10,400 10,600 10,500 +260.00
ex-tank China Prompt 1,341.43 1,367.23 1,354.33 +40.84
Benzene freight rates $/tSize t 28 Dec 4 Jan
South Korea to China 3,000 26 25
Thailand to mid China 6,000 35 33
South Korea to Houston 6,000 60 58
South Korea to Houston 12,000 57 56
ASiA-pAcific
to be firm in the short term, with phenol maintaining a rally that has seen Chinese prices at above $1,400/t cfr. Consumers are expected to restock ahead of lunar new year holidays in mid-February.
Benzene supplies within the domestic market remain largely balanced, with inventories in east China falling for the third consecutive week to about 134,000t. China is expected to import about 200,000t in December after shipping around 212,000t in November. Total Chinese imports until November 2017 hit a record-high of 2.37mn t on the back of incremental demand from downstream sectors like styrene monomer, MDI and caprolactam. China is expected to maintain its position as the world’s largest importer in 2018 with imports to hit above 2mn t again.
Benzene demand from the US market is expected to soften this quarter compared with November and December last year. The arbitrage was barely open with the inter-regional spread for forward month cargoes at about $58/t, almost at par with transregional freight costs. South Korea exported 64,000t of benzene in November, the highest volume during 2017. December exports were estimated to have risen further than in previous months. But demand in this year's first quarter is expected to taper off again following the arrival of the grow-ing exports from the region in the past few months.
Production margins for aromatics are expected to remain well supported with benzene remaining at current levels. The naphtha-benzene spread was at about $270/t, its high-est level compared with the spread between naphtha and toluene at $90/t, as well as with isomer xylene at $111/t. The naphtha-benzene spread averaged $322/t in 2017, the highest
china benzene imports, 2016-17 t
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Oct 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Oct 17
Korea South Japan Thailand Singapore Malaysia
Oman India Philippines Indonesia Taiwan
The Netherlands US Others
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AsiA-pAcific
in more than three years. The toluene-benzene spread was at $179.55/t this week, bolstering margins for toluene conver-sion units. Margins for toluene disproportionation and hydro-dealkylation producers in 2017 hit multi-year highs with the toluene-benzene spread at $162/t on average.
phenolPhenol prices rallied to above $1,400/t cfr China and India this week, supported by robust fundamentals. Supplies remain lim-ited because of reduced exports from the US Gulf, coast where disruptions remained for some units. Supplies from South Korea were also restricted in the previous quarter because of a major shutdown in November at Kumho’s units.
Thailand's PTTGC is due to start a planned turnaround at one of its phenol units this month. The producer currently has limited spot cargoes to spare. There were no further details available. Saudi Arabia's PetroRabigh was operating its phe-nol unit but at reduced rates, with the start of its upstream reformer still being awaited later this quarter.
Demand from the downstream bis-phenol A sector is firm in China, which has further supported price hikes in the domestic market. Discussions on a cfr basis rose to above $1,400/t levels this week.
Indian ex-tank prices rose to about 105 rupees/kg this week. There were deals done at about $1,425/t cfr India for Brazilian origin material, while non anti-dumping duty material sold at about $1,475-1,490/t.
styreneThe styrene monomer (SM) market reached a three-week high before 2017 ended after CNOOC Shell’s 710,000 t/yr unit shut suddenly on 27 December. But prices started to ease from this high after the supply pressure eased at the start of 2018, as inventories built up in east China.
The overall trading environment was still soft as the mar-ket is still filled with several uncertainties. Even though the year-end holidays are over, trading firms continued to avoid the market. Market discussions remained limited and liquidity is still thin.
Sellers continued to avoid making offers for January and February cfr China cargoes before any anti-dumping duty (ADD) is confirmed. China is continuing investigations against imports of SM from Taiwan, South Korea and the US. Sellers are afraid the duty eventually imposed may be backdated and the duty may be higher than expected.
Producers and consumers are also focusing their attention on resuming 2018 term contract negotiations as little was fixed at the year’s end. Without finalizing these contracts, partici-pants do not have supplies to offer.
The trading environment was also limited by the tightened vessel availability within northeast Asia. Many ports in the area are facing port congestion problems as they are closed because of bad weather. This is a common issue during the winter months. Freight rates for 2,000t of SM from South Korea or Taiwan to China have risen to almost $30/t, increasing the spread between fob South Korea and cfr China prices.
Because of the lack of market clarity from limited cfr China discussions, prices were assessed in line with import parity of China’s domestic market. January cfr China prices reached as high as $1,350-1,365/t midweek, as the market continued to adjust to reduced balances from the sudden shutdown of CNOOC Shell’s unit.
But prices started to ease as the damage to this unit appeared minor and a restart is likely in the coming week. Coastal inventories in east China reached a half-year high at this start of the year as three large vessels from the US were able to call at port towards the end of the year. Commercial inventories in east China reached 78,000t, the highest balance since June 2017. This figure rises to 109,000t when consumers’ stocks are included.
Benzene inventory vs cfr price
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180
360
540
720
900
1,080
1,260
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18
$/t
t
BZ inventory in east China cfr China
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Issue 18-1 Thursday 4 January 2018 Argus Benzene and Derivatives
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January prices settled back at $1,325-1,335/t on Thursday. February prices were assessed at $5/t in backwardation to January prices. These prices tracked similar trends in China’s domestic market, which saw discussions for prompt cargoes rising to 10,600 yuan/t before returning to settle the week at Yn10,400/t.
The inventory build did not surprise the market. Several produces and consumers said that they wanted to keep as much inventories in January as possible because of the ADD situation, as they expected trading to continue to be muted until a decision is made.India:Domestic prices of styrene monomer in India concluded the year on a marginally steady note, trading at 96-98 rupees/kg in the last week of December.
The stability of supplies into India for the first quarter of the year remains uncertain because of the difficulty in final-izing term contracts across Asia-Pacific. But it appears some trading firms may be trying to replenish this shortfall with supplies from the US.
ASIA-PACIfIC
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