Arizona Department of Transportation Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment
February 6, 2015
Presentation to PAG Environmental Planning Advisory
Council
Kris Gade, PhD
ADOT Environmental Planning Group
ADOT Extreme Weather Pilot Study
• Arizona and FHWA initiatives
• Pilot study focus on biotic communities
• Summary of results
• How ADOT will use the results
Extreme Weather Studies in AZ
2012: ADOT’s Preliminary
Study
FHWA Framework
December 2012 http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_
change/adaptation/resources_and_publications/vulnerability_assessment_framework/
19 FHWA Pilots for 2013-2014
Project Approach • Study corridor crosses several biomes
– Different transportation vulnerabilities
• Stressors
– Precipitation
– Temperatures
• Secondary impacts
– Wildfires
– Dust storms
– Runoff volumes (storms and post-fire)
– Heat sensitivity of infrastructure (pavement, etc)
Landscape Context • Biotic communities can
affect extreme weather risks to transportation
• Four groupings:
– Desert
– Grassland
– Chaparral
– Forest
Heat/cold sensitivity Heat/cold sensitivity Flooding/runoff Wildfire Dust storms Rockfall
Climate Stressors & Impacts
Temperature
Precipitation
Extreme Temperature Days above 100°F
Extreme Temperature Average Daily Maximum
Average Daily Maximum (F)
Past 2040 2080
1950-1999 2025-2055 2065-2095
Desert 84 88 92
Grassland 76 80 84
Chaparral 74 78 82
Forest 69 73 76
Extreme Precipitation Magnitude of 100-Year (1%) Rainfall
Potential Effects A Note on Symbology
• Negative effects: Likely to exacerbate risks
• Neutral, not relevant
• Uncertain effects
• Positive effects: Likely to reduce risks
All else being equal, projected changes in stressor frequency and/or severity are estimated to have:
Extreme Heat
• Pavement deformation, thermal expansion
• Construction schedules and seasons
• Worker safety
• Stranded motorists
Example Climate Indicators • Days exceeding 100°F • Average Daily Maximum Temperature
Potential Effects Increase in extremely hot days/maximum temperatures
Flagstaff
Phoenix
Tucson
Extreme Precipitation • Flooding/ Inundation
» Washouts
» Bridge scour
» Culvert damage
» Debris clogs drainage infrastructure (wildfires)
• Mudslides Example Climate Indicators • Magnitude of 100-year rainfall (24 hrs) • Magnitude of 50-year rainfall (24 hrs)
Potential Effects Change in magnitude of 100-year rainfall
Flagstaff
Phoenix
Tucson
• Incidence/severity of:
– Washouts/erosion
– Scour
Lower confidence than for temperature projections
– Mudslides
– Disruptions
Wildfire • Second order effects:
floods, mudflows, landslides, bridge scour
» Reduced vegetative cover (increased runoff)
» Increased debris (greater risk of clogging drainage, channels)
• Operational disruptions
• Deterioration, minor damage to guardrail, pavements
Example Climate Indicators • Average Daily Maximum Temp • Average Seasonal Precipitation
(May-June-July-Aug)
• Aggravate flooding/ drainage failures
• Operational disruptions Flagstaff
Phoenix
Tucson
Potential Effects Wildfire
How Will ADOT Use the Results? • Design standards
Justify use of larger design storm
• Transportation Asset Management Plan
Contribute to risk-based approach
• Strategic Highway Safety Plan
Weather-related incidents
Next Steps: Continued Partnering • Continue coordination with state, federal, and
university partners
• Increase coordination with local governments and MPOs (for detailed area assessments)
• Leverage existing tools with minimal development costs (e.g. USGS StreamStats)
Questions?
Contacts ADOT Project Manager
• Thor Anderson ([email protected], 602.712.4574)
ADOT Technical Contacts
• Kris Gade ([email protected], 602.292.0301)
• Steve Olmsted ([email protected], 602.712.6421)
• Charles Beck ([email protected], 602.712.8628)
Consultant
• Josh DeFlorio ([email protected])
FHWA Website http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/
Reserve Slides
Biotic Communities in the Project Corridor
Goals of pilot study
Data – Transportation Infrastructure Assets (ADOT)
• Feature Inventory System
• Bridge Rating System/NBI
• Culvert capacity data
• Roadside vegetation, stabilization, habitat
– Stressor Data and Models • Projections of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes
• Land cover
• Hydrological modeling
• Dust storm models?
– Criticality • Economic importance
• Transportation alternatives
Scenarios: Transportation Parameters
• Sensitivity Thresholds
– Focus on extremes (e.g., 100-year rainfall)
– Exceedance Values (e.g., 3.5” of rainfall)
– Temporal Frames (e.g., 24 hours)
– Frequency/Recurrence (e.g., 1% chance)
• Analysis/horizon year(s)
– Long Range Planning (e.g., 2040)
– Asset lifespan (e.g., bridge, 50-75 years)