Arizona’s Water Situation

Arizona League of Cities and Towns

August 20, 2015

Thomas Buschatzke, DirectorArizona Department of Water Resources

Water: Front Page News Coverage

• Choices - Too little too late 25% mandatory reductions (instituted in 2015) Late adoption of groundwater management

regulations (2014)

• Environmental requirements & lack of storage• Arizona v. California & Central Arizona Project

Arizona sued to ensure Colorado River Rights Arizona was victorious California gained higher priority through

Congressional negotiations authorizing the CAP California does not take a shortage

California’s Water Crisis

Why is Arizona not in a crisis? We’ve evolved.

• Salt River Project 1904• Yuma Irrigation Districts • Colorado River Compact 1922• Arizona v. California 1963• Central Arizona Project 1968-1996 • Groundwater Management Act of 1980 &

Amendments Creation of Arizona Department of Water Resources Mandatory Water Conservation Requirements Drought Preparedness Plan Requirements Assured Water Supply Program Underground Storage and Recovery Program & Arizona

Water Banking Authority • 9.0 MAF stored for future use

Arizona’s Water Management Story

Year Total Water Use(in million acre-feet)

Population (in millions)

Gross Domestic Income (in billions)

1957 7.1maf 1.1 $11.99

2013 7maf 6.58 $229.34

Change from 1957-2013

-0.1% 472% 1752%

1957 1973 1980 1990 2000 2010 20130

20406080

100120140160180200220240260

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

Water Use, Population and Economic Growth (1957 – 2013)

Adjusted Gross Domestic Income Population Water Use (Acre-Feet)

$ B

illi

on

Mil

lion

(ac

re-f

eet

or p

eop

le)

Water Source Million Acre-Feet (MAF)

% of Total

SURFACE WATER      

Colorado River   2.8 40 %

CAP 1.6   23%

On-River 1.2   17%

In-State Rivers   1.2 17%

Salt-Verde .7

Gila & others .5

GROUNDWATER   2.7 40%

RECLAIMED WATER 0.2 3%

Total   7 MAF

Arizona’s Water SupplyAnnual Water Budget 2013

Source: ADWR, 2015

Arizona’s Water Use by Sector (2013)

Arizona is not in a crisis, but does face some challenges

Driving Forces• 15 year ongoing drought• Population and economic growth will increase demand for water

Short-term Challenges• Risks to Colorado River Supply

Shortage on the Colorado River System is likely Recurring Lower Basin Annual Deficit

Medium-term Challenges• Water resources in rural areas of the state are more stressed

Primary water source is groundwater Lack of groundwater regulation Lack of groundwater data Rural areas lack the resources to address their issues

Long-term Challenges• Growing statewide imbalance between existing water supplies and

demand projected in the next 25 years and 50 years

Short-term Drought Conditions• Current: 75% of State moderate to severe conditions• August 2014: 98% of State moderate to severe conditions

Short-term Drought Status Short–term Drought Status

August 12, 2014Short–term Drought Status

August 11, 2015

VS.

• Drought Emergency Declaration - June 1999 Allows for governmental entities to provide response and recovery

assistance to drought stricken areas of the State Enables farmers and ranchers to request assistance from the Federal

Government (Farm Service Agency)• Drought Task Force – 2003

Established by Governor’s Executive Order 2003-12 Culminated in adoption of the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan in

2004• Intent to establish a flexible framework to refine drought monitoring

process, understand impacts and implement mechanisms to limit future vulnerability

• Some key elements: drought monitoring system; establishment of drought triggers; requirement for water providers to develop drought contingency plans

• Most urgent need was rural areas because alternative supplies often limited and local economies strongly impacted by drought

• Drought Declaration - 2007 Orders continued implementation of the Arizona Drought Preparedness

Plan and State of Arizona Emergency Response and Recovery Plan• May 22, 2015 ICG recommendation to the Governor to keep

declarations in place.

Arizona’s Historical Drought Actions

Colorado

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Probability of any level of shortage (Mead ≤ 1,075 ft.)

N 47 65 66 63

1st level shortage (Mead ≤ 1,075 and ≥1,050 ft)

0 47 46 40 34

2nd level shortage (Mead <1,050 and ≥1,025 ft)

0 0 19 21 20

3rd level shortage (Mead <1,025) 0 0 0 5 9

Challenges on the Colorado River:

Probabilities of Lower Colorado River Basin Shortage

Source: US Bureau of Reclamation CRSS Model Run – June 2015

Cities & Tribes

Cities Industry &

Tribes

Cities & Tribes

Ag

Underground Storage

CAP1.6 MAF

City of Yuma & Yuma Ag

River Cities

On-River1.2 MAF

Tribes, Industry, Ag

Tier 1 Shortage = 320,000 AF

Arizona Shortage in the Near TermArizona’s Allocation – 2.8 MAF

Efforts to address challenges on the Colorado River Drought Contingency Planning

• ADWR Director serves as Arizona’s Principal on matters relating to the Colorado River (A.R.S. 45-107(D))

• Discussions between: Basin States Department of the Interior Other contract holders

• Goal of discussions: Restore risks to levels achieved in the 2007 Guidelines Conserve 1.5 – 3.0 MAF in Lake Mead over the next 5 years Reduce the risks of Lake Mead falling below 1,000 ft. elevation as

we saw in the 2013 model projections• Memorandum of Understanding

Central Arizona Project = 345,000 AF Metropolitan Water District = 300,000 AF Southern Nevada Water Authority = 45,000 AF Bureau of Reclamation = 50,000 AF

• Arizona Water Banking Authority Over the last two decades the AWBA has stored 3.4

MAF (more than two years’ worth) of Colorado River deliveries to Central Arizona in order to provide back-up supplies in times of shortage over the long term.

• Mandatory municipal provider drought response plans Arizona water users have also stored water supplies as

a component of their water planning efforts.

• Statewide Drought Plan

Additional Efforts by Arizona

• ADWR received a petition for the initiation of procedures to designate an irrigation non-expansion area (February 2015)

Requirements within an irrigation non-expansion area• Prohibition on irrigating new acres• Metering and reporting requirements for most wells that pump

over 35 gallons per minute• No mandatory conservation requirements

• Petition signed by at least 25% of the irrigators in the sub-basin

• Public Hearing held in Bowie– May 16, 2015• Public comment period expired on July 17, 2015

Final water level data made available June 2, 2015 Groundwater model made available June 17, 2015

• Director Issued Decision Determining NOT to Designate as an irrigation non-expansion area

Challenges in the San Simon Valley Sub-basin

Arizona’s Efforts to Address Long-term Challenges

Strategic Vision for Water Supply Sustainability

Purpose: Identify strategies to help address Arizona’s future water needs and provide a stable economy for the future.

Findings: Projected imbalance between 900,000 and 3.2 MAF over the next 25 to 100 years.

• Strategic Priorities Identified: Resolution of Indian and Non-Indian Water Rights Claims Watershed/Forest Management Weather Modification Reclaimed Water Reuse Enhanced Stormwater Recharge Water Management Importation of New Water Supplies

• Arizona is NOT in a crisis!

• Arizona’s water supplies are resilient because of the choices that we made and actions that we continue to take.

• Some rural areas of the state are facing challenges due to the local impacts of drought. ADWR will continue to work with rural communities.

• Arizona has a recovery plan in place to access stored water when needed.

• ADWR and other Arizona water managers are closely monitoring the Colorado River and taking proactive steps to address the risk of Colorado River shortages and improve the health of the river system.

Conclusion

Questions?

Thomas BuschatzkeDirector

Phone: 602.771.8426Email: tbuschatzke@azwater.gov

Website: www.azwater.gov