Arkansas Water Resources Center
LONG-TERM RECONSTRUCTION AND ANALYSIS OF WHITE
RIVER STREAMFLOW
Research Project Technical Completion Report
Project G-1409-02
Authors
M.K. Cleaveland, D.W. Stahle, J.G. Hehr, Department of Geography, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas 72701
Publication No. PUB-135
June 1991
Arkansas Water Resources Center 112 Ozark Hall
University of Arkansas Fayetteville, Arkansas 72701
LONG-TERM RECOr~STRUCTION AND ANALYSIS
OF WHITE RIVER STREAMFLOW
M. K. Cleaveland, D. W. Stahle, J. G. HehrDepartment of GeographyUniversity of ArkansasFayetteville, AR 72701
Research Project Technical Completion Report
Project G-1409-02
The research on which this report is based was financed in part bythe United States Department of the Interior as authorized by theWater Research and Development Act of 1978 (P.L. 95-467).
Arkansas Water Resources Research CenterUniversity of Arkansas
113 Ozark HallFayetteville, Arkansas 72701
Publication No. 135
June, 1988
Contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the views andpolicies of the U.S. Department of the Interior, nor does mention oftrade names or commercial products constitute their endorsement or re-commendation for use by the U.S. Government.
The University of Arkansas, in compliance with federal and state lawsand the regulations governing affirmative action and nondiscrimination,does not discriminate in the recruitment, admission and employment ofstudents, faculty and staff in the operation of any of its educationalprograms and activities as defined by law. Accordingly, nothing inthis publication should be viewed as directly or indirectly expressingany limitation, specification or discrimination as to race, religion,color or national origin; or to handicap, age, sex, or status as adisabled Vietnam-era veteran, except as provided by law. Inquiries con-cerning this policy may be directed to the Affirmative Action Officer.
ABSTRACT
LONG- TERM RECONSTRUCTION AND Ar~AL YSIS
OF WHITE RIVER STREAMFLOW
A 281-year reconstruction of White River annual runoff at Claren-don, Arkansas, was developed from a regional average of nine Oklahoma,Missouri, and Arkansas tree-ring chronologies (six post oak, Quercusstellata, and three baldcypress, Taxodium distichum). Inhomogen-e-i-tyof the gaged series was detected with both double mass analysis (usingstate average total annual Arkansas precipitation) and regression(using the regional tree-ring average). Simple regression calibratedthe homogeneous runoff data with the average ring width data from 1930to 1980. Comparing the reconstruction with independent data verifiedthe regression model. Variance of the reconstruction increases signif-icantly during the 20th century, a change that may be caused by climaticshifts or by anthropogenic disturbances in the watershed. Years of sur-plus and deficit runoff are non-randomly distributed in both gaged andreconstructed series. This non-randomness appears to be caused by asignificant tendency for inter-annual persistence of runoff extremes,which may provide a basis for improvement of probabilistic forecasts ofWhite River runoff.
Malcolm K. Cleaveland, David W. Stahle and John G. Hehr
Completion Report to the U.S. Department of the Interior, GeologicalSurvey, Reston, VA, June, 1988.
Climate/Planning/Dendrochronology/Stochastic Hydrology/Paleohydrology/Time Series Analysis/Rainfall-Runoff Pro-cesses/Rivers/Drought/White River/Arkansas/Missouri
Keywords --
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
iAbstract.
List of Figures
List of Tables iv
Acknowledgements v
1Introduction
A. Purpose and Objectives 2
3B. StudyArea
5c. Related Research and Activities.
7MethodsandProcedures .
7A. GagingData
13
B. Tree-Ring Data
14c. Calibration and Verification
20Principal Findings and Significance
A. Reconstructed White River Runoff: 201700 to 1980
24B. Analysis of Surplus and Deficit Runoff.
Conclusions 28
30LiteratureCited
34Appendix 1
40Appendix 2
i i
LIST OF FIGURES
Page
Locations of the tree-ring chronologies used inreconstruction of White River Basin annual runoffat Clarendon, Arkanas, (triangle). The six postoak chronologies (circles) are 1) Little MariesRiver, MO, 2) Hahatonka, MO, 3) Democrat Ridge,MO, 4) Neosho River, OK, 5) Roaring River, MO,6) Clayton Ridge, MO, and the three baldcypresschronologies (squares) are 7) Allred Lake, MO,8) Egypt, AR and 9) Black Swamp, AR. The fourlargest impoundments (that affect this study) inthe White River Basin (dashed line) are (A) Beaver,(B) Table Rock, (C) Bull Shoals and (D) Norfolk. .
Figure 1.
4
Figure 2. Double mass analysis of White River cumulative an-nual mean daily discharge at Clarendon, Arkansas,vs. cumulative estimated discharge (see text).Annotations on the graph show the years of largestdischarge (gaged data) and major reservoir closureswith impoundment capacity. 10
Figure 3. Reconstructed (solid line) and observed (dashedline) annual runoff (Jan.-Dec.) of the White Riverat Clarendon, Arkansas, for the calibration andverification periods. The solid horizontal lineis the 1900-1980 gaged mean, and the two horizontaldashed lines are the surplus and deficit runoffthresholds (120 percent and 80 percent of thegaged mean, respectively). 12
Figure 4. Reconstructed annual runoff plotted with a low-pass filter that removes variance at frequenciesof less than eight years (Fritts, 1976). The solidhorizontal line is the 1700-1980 reconstructedmean, and the two horizontal dashed lines are thethresholds used in the analysis of surplus anddeficit runoff (120 percent and 80 percent of themean, respectively .21
iii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We acknowledge the encouragement and support of Leslie Mack,
Director, Arkansas Water Resources Research Center, statistical assist-
ance by Colm O'Cinneide of the Mathematics Department, and helpful dis-
cussions \,[ith T. J. Blasing, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and E. R.
Cook, Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory. Samuel Lehr, Jr., Memphis
District Corps of Engineers, provided the Clarendon hydrological data.
Technical assistance was provided by R. Berg, C. Corke, S. Huntsman, D.
Puckett and K. Thompson. Funded at the University of Arkansas by U.S.
Geological Survey State Water Research Institute Program (Contract No.
14-08-0001-G1409). The National Science Foundation, Climate Dynamics
Program supported development of the tree-ring data used in this study
(grant numbers ATM-8006964, ATM-8120615, ATM-8412912 and ATM-8612343).
v
.INTRODUCTION
The demand for high quality surface and groundwater supplies by
and municipal interests has increased nation-agricultural, industrial
wide, in some cases exceeding existing supplies CU. S. Water Resources
Council, 1978J. The Southcentral United States is experiencing rapid
growth in population and water demand, and available supplies may soon
become inadequate in or near the arid southern Plains or in areas of
intensively irrigated agriculture such as the Grand Prairie of eastern
Arkansas CU. S. Water Resources Council, 1978; Bryant et al., 1985J
Surface water supplies in the Southcentral United States are subject to
substantial interannual variability due to natural fluctuations in cli-
In fact, the Arkansas-White-Red and the Texas-Gulf water resourcemate.
regions CU. S. Water Resources Council, 1978J have been identified as
having two of the three most variable runoff regimes in the 19 subdivi-
sions of the continental United States [Stockton and Boggess, 1979J
Arkansas is particularly well endowed with high quality surface
water resources, and proposals for interbasin transfers both within and
Consideration is being givenfrom Arkansas have generated controversy.
to the transfer of surface water from the White River to augment dwind-
ling groundwater supplies in the Grand Prairie of eastern Arkansas [U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers, n.d.]., where water-intensive rice and soybean
The possible transfer ofsas Agricultural Statistics Service, 1988].
"surplus" water from Arkansas to supplement supplies in Texas has also
been investigated [U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1982] and the Dal1.as-
1
.Ft. Worth water supply system will extend eastward to Lamar County,
only 8G km from Arkansas (Dallas Water Utilities, 1986).
Apart from the many economic and environmental questions concern-
ing possible interbasin transfers of surplus water, there is uncertainty
about the long-term availability of surplus flow regimes";in Arkansas.
The probable discontinuous nature of surplus flows would impose serious
planning and design constraints on the possible use of this water re-
Because the gaged runoff data is limited to the pastsource component.
century in Arkansas, a thorough investigation of the history and depend-
ability of surplus flows is probably not possible solely on the basis of
the historic record [Rodriguez-Iturbe, 1969J
Purpose and ObjectivesA.
correlated with hydrometeoro-Proxy tree-ring data are often wel
logical variables such as precipitation and temperature, and can there-
fore be useful for developing long-term estimates of specific hydro-
Tree-ring data are particularlylogical variables such as runoff.
suited to the analysis of drought or low flow characteristics because
moisture stress is a fundamental growth-limiting factor which can be
During yearsfaithfully reproduced in properly selected ring width data.
of abundant precipitation, multiple factors such as temperature, competi-
tion, or soil fertility may limit growth in individual trees, usually
creating greater standard errors in the ring width indices derived for
For this reason tree-ring reconstructionsthose years [Fritts, 1976J.
of very wet years usually involve greater error and should be interpreted
cautiously [e.g., Blasing et al., 1988J.
In this paper we use a network of moisture sensitive post oaks
2
'I 1500 50 100
ARKANSAS Km
L---
Locations of the tree-ring chronologies used in reconstructionof White River Basin annual runoff at Clarendon, Arkansas,(triangle). The six post oak chronologies (circles) are 1)Little Maries River, MO, 2) Hahatonka, MO, 3) Democrat Ridge,MO, 4) Neosho River, OK, 5) Roaring River, MO, 6) ClaytonRidge, MO, and the three baldcypress chronologies (squares)are 7) A1lred Lake, MO, 8) Egypt, AR and 9) Black Swamp, AR.The four largest impoundments (that affect this study) in theWhite River Basin (dashed line) are (A) Beaver, (B) Table Rock(C) Bull Shoals and (D) Norfork.
Figure 1.
4
Clarendon gage is far enough above the confluence of the Arkansas and
Mississippi Rivers to be largely unaffected by fluvial damming from
either river CU. S. Geological Survey, 1984J
Intensive logging of the upland oak-hickory and pine forests
occurred during the early twentieth century. These logging operations
and land clearing for agriculture may have affected the discharge, sus-
pended sediments, or bed load of the White River, at least temporarily
Four large-scale impoundments forduring the initial wave of clearing.
flood control, power generation, water supply, and recreation purposes
were constructed in the basin from 1943 to 1980 CU. S. Geological Sur-
1984], and these projects have promoted both the economic develop-
of the central Ozarks and agricultural productivity along the
The volume of high quality surface water stored inlower White River.
these reservoirs is certainly one of the most important resources in
the Ozarks, but the present and future management of these supplies re-
main subject to a conflicting array of public and private pressures.
Related Research and Activities
Properly developed tree-ring chronologies are particulary well
uited as surrogate runoff records because of great age (some species
exceed 1000 years), absolute dating, annual to seasonal resolution,
sensitivity of tree growth to climatic variables that also influence
runoff~ and the wide availability of tree-ring data in the specific
drainage system of interest [Fritts, 1976; Stockton and Boggess, 1980J.
A number of previous studies have employed surrogate or proxy data such
The mostas tree rings to extend relatively short streamflow records.
5
known tree-ring reconstruction of runoff was for theimportant and wel
Colorado River, reported by Stockton (1975). The reconstructed long-
term mean annual runoff in the Colorado River was only about 13.5 maf
between 1564 and 1962, some 2.0 maf year-1 less than the amount allo-
cated in the Colorado River Compact of 1922 [Stockton and Jacoby, 1976]
provide a classic illustration of both the need to consult proxy data
when confronted with short, potentially biased gaging records and the
potential practical importance of tree-ring data.
Other hydrological applications of tree-ring data include a re-
construction of summer streamflow in the Occoquan River, Virginia, which
indicated that critical low flows were more frequent in the reconstructed
data prior to the period of instrumental records [Phipps, 1983J. Cook
and Jacoby [1983J reconstructed summer low flows in the Potomac River,
and for similar reasons concluded that the gaged discharge measurements
for the Potomac are not entirely representative of the last 250 years.
Jones et al. [1984] have demonstrated the hydrological application of
tree-ring data in the British Isles, while Stockton and Fritts [1973J
and Brinkmann [1987J have used tree-ring chronologies to reconstruct
past lake levels
The use of proxy data to investigate long streamflow series in the
Southcentral United States has been limited to early tree-ring studies
by Hawley [1937J in Tennessee. No quantitative estimates of past runoff
have been reported in the White River Basin, although Guyette [1981J has
6
demonstrated significant correlation (r = 0.75) between growth of
eastern red cedar (Juniperus virginiana) and June minimum discharge of
the Gasconade, James, and Current rivers in southern Missouri
vidual red cedar up to 700 years old have been reported from the Ozark
Plateau [Guyette, 1981; Guyette et al., 1980], and hold great promise
as long proxy hydrological series.
METHODS AND PROCEDURES
Gaging DataA.
We selected the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (CaE) gaging record
at Clarendon for reconstruction because it is the longest in Arkansas
it is believed to provide a reasonable integration of the surface water
supply in the entire White River Basin, the gage has never been moved
and homogeneity of the record does not appear to have been seriously
Clarendon dischargeaffected by post-war reservoir development.
was not available from 1921 to 1930, but a single rating table to con-
vert gage height to discharge for those years was supplied by the Memphis
communication, 1987J. The ratingDistrict CaE [So A. Lehr, Jr., persona
low water) Measurements in 1917--table has the notation "Based on L.W.
High Water 1927"
Correlations between monthly, seasonalized, and annual mean daily
discharge and the regional tree-ring chronologies [Stahle et al., 1985bJ
were used initially to determine which chronologies should be used and
what fraction of the year might be most successfully reconstructed.
Seasonal mean daily discharge for February through July produced the
,
but annual mean daily dischargehighest correlation (r = 0.64, P < 0.001
7
0 1 2 3 4 54
CUM. EST. DISCHARGE (/10
763 -1
m Sec )
Figure 2. Double mass analysis of White River cumulative annual meandaily discharge at Clarendon, Arkansas, vs. cumulativeestimated discharge (see text). Annotations on the graphshow the years of largest discharge (gaged data) and majorreservoir closures with impoundment capacity.
10
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Figure 3. Reconstructed (solid line) and observed (dashed line)annual runoff (Jan.-Dec.) of the White River at Clarendon,Arkansas, for the calibration and verification periods.The solid horizontal line is the 1900-1980 gaged mean,and the two horizontal dashed lines are the surplus anddeficit runoff thresholds (120 percent and 80 percent ofthe gaged mean, respectively).
12
Tree-Ring DataB.Nine high quality tree-ring chronologies were selected from the
50 now available in the Southcentral United States [Stahle et al.
1985a, 1985bJ on the basis of proximity to the White River Basin,
tal length of record~ and correlation with White River discharge.
nine chronologies are based on two species, post oak and baldcypress,
from well-drained upland and poorly drained wetland habitats, respect-
ively, and both species exhibit strong sensitivity to drought during
and before the growing season [Stahle and Hehr, 1984; Stahle et al.,
The direct correlation between post oak growth and moisture1985a].
anomalies is consistent with the xeric nature of their upland sites,
and it has been known for more than half a century that the moisture
signal in tree growth can often be maximized by selecting native trees
from these well drained upland positions [Douglass, 1920]. The direct
correlation between the radial growth of swamp-grown baldcypress was
discovered more recently [Bowers, 1973; Stahle et al., 1985a, 1988J, and
extends the range of drought sensitive tree species into a distinctive
and widespread bottomland environment.
Each tree-ring chronology represents a mean value function of the
detrended ring width measurement series available for each year from
Chronology30 to 50 trees per site, usually with two radii per tree.
development started with the absolute crossdating of each radius [Stokes
and Smiley, 1968] and the measurement of each dated ring to 0.01 mm.
The series of annual ring width measurements were then detrended and
transformed to dimensionless indices using the ARSTAN program [Cook,
13
Holmes et al., 1986]. This procedure removes biological growth
trends related to increasing tree age [Fritts, 1976], and the flex-
ibility of the spline curves fitted to the measurement series was
strictly controlled to avoid removing more long-term variance than ab-
Low order serial correlation present in the annualsolutely necessary.
ring width series of most trees was largely removed from each tree-ring
chronology using autoregressive (AR) modeling procedures [Cook, 1985J
Finally, it was necessary to remove some remaining long-term variance
trend in the derived chronologies, which appears to be due, in part, to
changing chronology sample size and an age-related decline in growth
vigor of oaks [e.g., Stahle and Cleaveland, 1988; Blasing et al., 1988].
When the nine residual series were averaged, this regional average
series had weak serial correlation (r-l =-0.13), apparently due to re-
The aver-inforcement of weak persistence in the separate chronologies.
age was modeled as an AR(3) process to derive a serially random predictor
chronology for calibration [Meko, 1981J. Serial correlation in unmodeled
~-ring time series appears to arise primarily from biological factors
(e.g., food storage, crown area, root area) [Fritts, 1976], but some per-
To enhance reconstructionsistence may also be due to climatic forcing.
fidelity in the frequency domain, the autoregressive properties of the
Clarendon runoff series were added to the serially random tree-ring based
estimates to complete the reconstruction [r4eko, 1981J (see below).
Calibration and Verificationc.
An empirical approach was used to identify the best predictor var-
iables and time interval to calibrate the tree-ring and annual runoff
14
series. The tree-ring and runoff data were both prewhitened prior to
calibration, and marginally significant first-order serial correlation
= 0.22, P < 0.10) was modeled as an AR(l process and removed from
the runoff series. Principal components analysis [Cooley and Lohnes,
1971] of the nine chronology network was performed and the amplitude
series of the first two eigenvectors (with eigenvalues> 1.0, that re-
tain 44.6 percent and 16.5 percent of the variance in the tree-ring
data set, respectively) were entered into stepwise multiple regression
with annual runoff from 1930 to 1980 [Draper and Smith, 1981J. This
approach explained less variance in the gaged data than bivariate re-
gression between the gaged runoff series and an average of the nine
tree-ring chronologies. In addition, loadings on the second eigenvector
all negative for post oak chronologies and positive for baldcypress
chronologies, suggesting that physiological or ecological differences
unrelated to hydrometerological conditions may be involved in the tree-
ring variance associated with the second eigenvector. For these reasons,
the regional average of the nine chronologies was used to reconstruct
annual runoff.
In an attempt to further assess the homogeneity of the gaged data,
and to select the most reliable subperiod for calibration, the tree-ring
data and the annual runoff data were entered into linear regression for
four subperiods, 1900-1929,1930-1951,1952-1980, and 1930-1980. These
subperiods were selected in light of the apparent inhomogeneity in the
Clarendon data before 1930, and the possible impact of Bull Shoals and
other large impoundments on the tree growth -runoff relationship after
15
1951. The coefficients and statistics computed in these four regres-
sian analyses are listed in Table 1, and the tree-ring data explain
the most runoff variance for the period from 1930 to 1951 and the least
from 1900 to 1929. The regression slope and intercept
Table
1) com-
puted during these two subperiods are significantly different (P < 0.05;
Steel and Torrie, 1980; SAS Institute Inc., 1985) which, with double
Also,mass analysis, suggests that the gaged series is heterogeneous.
regression results indicate that post-war reservoir construction in
basin has perturbed the natural relationship between climate and runoff.
The regression model from the 1930 to 1980 period explains 50 percent of
the annual runoff variance and was used to derive the transfer function
to reconstruct runoff from 1700 to 1980 for the following reasons
there is no statistical difference between the regression coefficients
calculated for 1930 to 1951 and 1952 to 1980; ii) serious inhomogeneity
is not apparent in the discharge data after 1930; (iii) although the ex-
plained variance is maximized from 1930 to 1951, a sample size of only
22 years may not be adequate to insure a stable regression relationship
It should also be noted that calibrations based on separate averages
of the upland post oak and bottomland cypress chronologies each explained
38 percent of the annual runoff variance from 1930 to 1980, twelve per-
cent less than was explained by an average of both species. This is con-
sistent with the assumption that runoff from the Ozark Plateau and Western
Lowlands is reflected primarily by the post oak and baldcypress chronolo-
gies, respectively, and that each region can contribute independently to
White River discharge measured at Clarendon.
16
The transfer function used to reconstruct White River annual run
off was
(2)
where Yt is reconstructed runoff for year t in km3 year-l and Xt is the
regional average of the nine tree-ring chronologies for year t. The
-1standard errors of the slope and intercept are 6.95 and 6.98 km3 year
respectively. The AR(l) persistence model determined for the gaged
runoff series (AR(l) coefficient = 0.22) was then added to the estimated
series. The addition of persistence changes the reconstructed mean
slightly, so the reconstruction was adjusted to maintain the equality
of the observed and reconstructed means during the calibration interval
(1930-1980).
To evaluate the accuracy and stability of the reconstruction, the
subperiod calibrations based on 1930 to 1951 and 1952 to 1980 (with co-
efficients that are not statistically different from the 1930 to 1980
transfer function) were also used to reconstruct annual flow during the
alternate period for which statistically independent gaged runoff data
is available (1952-1980 and 1930-1951, respectively). Several statist-
ical comparisons were made between the gaged and reconstructed runoff
values during the verification periods (Table 1). The correlations and
first difference correlations are both strongly positive and highly
significant (Table 1
,
demonstrating strong covariance of observed and
reconstructed series outside the period in which regression forces an
optimum relationship. The sign tests [Conover, 1980] indicate signif-
icant skill in reconstructing the direction of departures from the mean
17
(P<0.10) and paired !-tests [Steel and Torrie, 1980] reveal no signif-
icant difference between the average of reconstructed and observed run-
off (Table 1).
The final verification test used was the reduction of error (RE)
statistic which compares the actual and estimated runoff during the
verification period with the actual mean runoff during the calibration
interval, and is a measure of information gained by using the regression
estimates of runoff rather than simply the mean of runoff during the
calibration interval [Gordon, 1982; Blasing et al., 1988]. Values of
the RE theoretically range from -w to +1.0, and any positive value is
considered significant ( P < 0.05, N>10) [Gordon and LeDuc, 1981]. The
RE statistics calculated on the actual and reconstructed runoff data
The positive RE statistics indicate that the re-are +0.38 and +0.60.
construction is contributing unique paleohydrological information.
The reconstruction has also been compared with the independent
Tablegaged data from 1900 to 1929 that was not used in any calibration
1, Fig. 3). Although this early runoff data may be systematically biased
relative to the post-1929 data, it can still be useful for independent
All verification tests are passed,verification of the reconstruction.
although the correlations are lower than found for 1930-1951 and 1952-
1980, and the RE is low, but still positive (Table 1)
The descriptive statistics in Table 2 indicate that the reconstruc-
tion reproduces the mean and variance properties of the independent run-
off data reasonably well, but examination of Fig. 3 reveals specific
The reconstructed runoff serieslimitations of the regression estimates.
18
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does not fully reproduce the extremes apparent in the gaged data, par-
ticularly positive extremes. The worst estimated annual runoff value
is 1927, which is the largest annual runoff amount ever measured in the
White River Basin. This indicates that the tree-ring estimates of the
magnitude of high runoff periods contain the greatest errors, probably
due largely to inability of trees to respond linearly to very wet con-
ditions [Fritts, 1976]. Fortunately, the point at which estimation er-
rors become large appears to be well above the surplus threshold set
at 120 percent of the mean (Fig. 3). This indicates that the recon-
struction should be useful for investigations of the history and timing
of surplus flows defined conservatively as less than 130 percent of the
long-term mean. Of course, the surplus issue also involves interest
in the absolute magnitude of surplus flows, but reconstruction errors
associated with the largest runoff amount Fig. 3) indicates that the
reconstruction should be interpreted cautiously in terms of the abso-
lute magnitude of surplus flows
PRINCIPAL FINDINGS AND SIGNIFICANCE
A.
The reconstructed annual runoff for the White River at Clarendon
from 1700 to 1980 is presented in Fig. 4 and Appendix 2. The descript-
ive statistics for the gaged and reconstructed series are presented in
Table 2. The variance and range statistics are highest for the gaged
data, illustrating the underestimation of runoff extremes by the recon-
struction. The skewness and kurtosis of the gaged runoff are also both
larger than for the reconstruction, bat both series approximate a normal
20
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21
The gaged and reconstructed mean runoff for the perioddistribution.
1930 to 1980 are less than the reconstructed long-term mean from 1100 to
1980,
but these differences are not statistically significant [Steel
and Torrie, 1980].
Examination of Fig. 4 suggests a long-term trend in annual runoff
from 1800 to 1900, but there is no significant linear trend from 1700
There does appear to be a substantial increase in runoffto 1980.
variance around 1900, which is statistically confirmed by an F-test on
the ratio of reconstructed variances from 1700 to 1899 and 1900 to 1988
(P<0.05) [Steel and Torrie, 1980J. The four lowest, and two of the
four highest reconstructed annual runoff values occur in the twentieth
Assuming that the ratio of actual to reconstructed runoffcentury.
variance is time stable, the White River appears to have experienced
more variable runoff during the twentieth century than over the preced-
ing 200 years. This apparent change in runoff variability may be due
to an actual climate change [e.g., Kutzbach, 1970], may reflect anthro-
pogenic disturbances to the remnant old-growth forests sampled, or may
reflect large scale anthropogenic disturbances to the watershed (e.g
regional land clearing, acid rain deposition, or CO2 fertilization).
Efforts to detrend the variance of the tree-ring time series could also
cause an increase in twentieth century variance [Blasing, et al., 1988]
but our variance detrending was cautious and is probably not responsible.
The filtered reconstruction (Fig. 4) suggests that prolonged (5-
low and high runoff departures tend to alternate in an os-to la-year
cillatory manner, but these oscillations are too irregular for direct
22
tially (suggested by Fig. 3), and should provide some insight into the
secular variability of surplus flows in the White River system.
If the intervals between surplus flows are randomly distributed,
they should approximate an exponential distribution, and this hypothesis
can be tested with the Lilliefors criterion [Conover, 1980]. The dis-
tribution of intervals between surplus years (~ 120 percent of the mean)
the test of randomness for gaged runoff from 1900 to 1980 (P<0.05)
and for reconstructed runoff from 1700 to 1980 (P<O.Ol The recon-
structed data also fail when tested from 1900 to 1980 (P<0.01 Inspec
tion of test results indicates that the gaged series fails Lilliefors
test primarily because surplus runoff events tend to cluster into suc-
cessive years (high incidence of one year intervals between surplus run-
Three consecutive years of surplus occur three times (1927-1929
1949-1951, and 1973-1975). In the reconstruction, four consecutive
years of surplus occur 1774-1777, 1891-1894), and six of nine years are
estimated to have had surplus runoff from 1774 to 1782.
The longest interval without surplus runoff in the gaged series was
11 years, occurring from 1957 to 1968, and ten consecutive years, from
1935 to 1945! were also recorded (Fig. 4). The reconstructed runoff
series indicates that prolonged periods of 27 years 1717 to 1744),20
years (1823 to 1843), and 11 years (1811 to 1822) without surplus runoff
have occurred in the White River Basin since 1700. The underestimation
of actual runoff amounts by the reconstruction is a potential problem to
a threshold analysis of surplus or deficit flow, but does not appear to
be a serious limitation to this study because (i estimation error
25
uted when compared to an exponential distribution with Lilliefors test
(P<O.Ol). The clustering of low runoff years also appears to explain
this non-randomness~ with several examples of successive drought years
lasting from two to five years in the period from 1700 to 1980. During
the driest periods the reconstruction indicates that deficit flows oc-
curred in as many as six of seven years from 1868 to 1874, and six of
10 years from 1785 to 1794. The recurrence of these historic dry peri-
ods over the White River Basin would no doubt place severe strain on
the highly developed surface water supply system, even though this sys-
tern has been designed and managed with severe short-term drought as a
primary consideration. On the positive side, the longest interval be-
tween deficit runoff was seven years in the observed data (1947 to 1954)
and 12 years in the reconstructed data prior to the twentieth century
1708 to 1720 and 1841 to 1853) (Fig. 4). Most of these periods without
deficit flow were characterized by a high incidence of surplus runoff.
The non-random interannual distribution of surplus and deficit run-
off events in the White River Basin appears to be a product of large
scale climatic variability. Some of this variability may eventually be
tied to more slowly changing boundary conditions of the atmosphere such
as sea surface temperatures, or the El Nino/Southern Oscillation. If
such associations can be demonstrated, they may permit some improvement
in long-term hydrological forecasts once a change in the related boundary
condition is detected. In lieu of a better understanding of the atmo-
spheric conditions se$ponsibleforextended periods of surplus or deficit
runoff in the White River Basin, we have attempted to identify statistical
27
data indicate that surplus and deficit flows are not randomly distrib-
uted through time. This implies that regimes of unusually low or high
flows can become established and persist for two or more years, as has
been witnessed during the twentieth century (e.g., low runoff was reo
corded for three consecutive years in 1900-1902, 1954-1956, and 1963-
1965; high runoff occurred three consecutive years in 1927-1929, 1949-
1951, and 1973-1975). Periods as long as 27 years without surplus run-
off occur in the reconstructed record. Non-random occurrence of sur-
plus and deficit runoff years may also imply a systematic component to
the atmospheric conditions that govern discharge in the White River and
elsewhere in the Southcentral United States (e.g., Stahle and Cleave-
land,1988). This interannual persistence of low and high runoff re-
gimes, and the presence of spectral peaks in the 14.0 to 18.67 year
period range, were both also detected in independent climate and tree-
ring data sets from Texas [Stahle and Cleaveland, 1988J and suggest a
large-scale macroclimate control. If the physical mechanism (or mech-
anisms) responsible for this apparent persistence of climate indices
and runoff in the Southcentral United States can be identified, it
could lead to improved forecasting of runoff extremes
This study demonstrates that tree-ring data can be useful for ap-
plied hydrological analysis in the Central United States, including
detection of inhomogeneity in gaging records. With the extensive net-
work of existing chronologies, and the development of longer red cedar
and baldcypress chronologies, there is considerable potential to extend
these hydrological applications in both time and space.
29
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32
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33
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41
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