Arlington Public Schools
Arlington Facilities and Student
Accommodation Plan
(AFSAP)
FY 2012 – 17
Presented to the School Board January 20, 2011
Facilities and Operations http://www.apsva.us/afsap
2
Table of Contents Purpose of the AFSAP ………………………………………………………………………..3 History of the AFSAP ………………………………………………………………………..3 Overview ………………………………………………………………………..4 Current and Projected Enrollment ………………………………………………………………………..4 Diversity and Special Populations ………………………………………………………………………..7 Enrollment Changes by School ………………………………………………………………………..12 Projection Methodology ………………………………………………………………………..16 FY 2012-17 Projections ………………………………………………………………………..16 Changes in Housing Demographics ………………………………………………………………………..18 Student Generation Factor ………………………………………………………………………..18 Capacity ………………………………………………………………………..26 Relocatables ………………………………………………………………………..31 Review of Former Decision Points ………………………………………………………………………..33 New Decision Points ………………………………………………………………………..34 Capacity Utilization Maps ………………………………………………………………………..35
Appendix (Separate Document) September 30, 2010 Enrollment ………………………………………………………………………..3 Capacity Utilization Table ………………………………………………………………………..4 Enrollment Projections ………………………………………………………………………..5 Civil Rights Statistics ………………………………………………………………………..11 Relocatable Plan ………………………………………………………………………..12 Boundary Maps ………………………………………………………………………..19 Enrollment/Projections by School ………………………………………………………………………..22 Room Inventories (Elementary) ………………………………………………………………………..57 Secondary School Capacities ………………………………………………………………………..79
3
Purpose of the AFSAP The Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan (AFSAP) for FY 2012-17 provides a comprehensive look at student enrollment and building capacity within Arlington Public Schools (APS). The intent of this document is to provide APS School Board members and staff with demographic and facility data from which they may make decisions about APS buildings and programs. Specific information about each school is provided, as well as an overall look at enrollment/capacity issues throughout the county. Information provided includes:
• Current and projected enrollments by school and grade level
• Enrollment vs. capacity analysis
• Capacity analysis maps
• Student Generation Factor analysis, including new neighborhood generation factors
• Review of Decision Points from the April 2009 AFSAP and a summary of progress made on those issues Areas of concern identified in the analysis of these data are highlighted as decision points and are listed at the end of this document. Questions regarding the AFSAP may be directed to Alison Denton, Facilities Planner at (703) 228-7741 or at [email protected]. History of the AFSAP Arlington Public Schools’ Annual Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan (AFSAP) was first published by the Facilities and Operations department in 1998. The AFSAP was published annually from 1998-2001. In 2001, the APS School Board and staff decided to publish the document on a two-year cycle, in conjunction with the Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) process. In 2003 it was renamed the Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan. AFSAP on the Web
The complete AFSAP and Appendix, along with supporting information, can be found on the Arlington Public Schools website at http://www.apsva.us/afsap.
4
Overview Arlington Public Schools is comprised of 22 elementary schools, five middle schools, three high schools, one secondary alternative program facility (H-B Woodlawn), two high school continuation program facilities (Arlington Mill and Langston), three special program facilities (Thurgood Marshall, Reed, and the Family Center) and the Career Center. Each of these facilities is unique in its ability to accommodate students and/or programs. Current and projected enrollment Total APS enrollment as of September 30, 2010 was 21,241 students. This total includes students from preschool age to those students enrolled in high school continuation programs. Enrollment in grades K-12 for 2010 was 20,201 students. This represents an increase of 1,008 K-12 students from the previous year, the largest one-year increase recorded since 1960. This is the fifth year of increasing enrollment. Staff projects that the increase in total K-12 student population will continue for the next several years, though likely not at the extraordinary rate experienced last year. The number of preschool students is expected to continue to increase as PreK programs are added. Current PreK programs serve 3, 4 and 5 year olds in Montessori (ages 3-5), Virginia PreSchool Initiative (age 4), and PreK Special Education classrooms (ages 2-4). Additionally, APS provides specialized services (i.e., Speech) to “dual-enrolled” students on a limited basis and invites PreK students to serve as “peer models” in PreK classrooms that are under-enrolled. Although both dual-enrolled and peer model students are counted towards total enrollment, they are not counted toward capacity utilization since they are in attendance in school only intermittently. The projected PreK-12 APS enrollment for September 30, 2011 is 22,201 students. The K-12 student projection is 21,064 students, an expected increase of 863 K-12 students (4.3%) from September 30, 2010. The projections for years 2011-2016 show a continued increase in APS’ K-12 population for the next six years. A range of projection models was examined and the three-year average rate of change methodology was adopted to represent the projected enrollment increase. The following graphs (Charts 1 and 2) show the history of APS enrollment from 1961 to the present. Each graph shows the PreK-12 population as well as the K-12 population. Chart 2 provides a detailed view of the enrollment numbers over the last twenty years. The graphs show APS student enrollment has varied significantly over the last 43 years. The highest total K-12 enrollment at APS was 26,927 students in 1961. The smallest population on record was 14,113 students in 1988. The number of preschool students is increasing as a percentage of total population. In 1970, APS taught 13 preschool students who accounted for 0.05% of the total population. In September 2010, APS served 1,040 preschool students who make up 4.9% of the population.
5
Chart 1. Historical PreK-12 and K-12 Enrollments (1961 – 2010).
Total K-12 and PreK-12 Enrollment (September 30th), 1961-2010
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
K-12 Enrollment
PreK-12 Enrollment
6
Chart 2. PreK-12 and K-12 Enrollment for 1990 – 2010.
Total PreK-12 and K-12 Enrollment
(September 30th), 1990 - 2010
14000
15000
16000
17000
18000
19000
20000
21000
22000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
To
tal K
-12
Po
pu
lati
on
K-12 Enrollment
PreK-12 Enrollment
7
Diversity and Special Populations
Racial Diversity
As shown on Chart 3, the current distribution (October, 2010) of racial/ethnic groups (as defined by the Bureau of Census) of APS’ student population is as follows:
• White -- 46%
• Hispanic -- 28%
• Black -- 11%
• Asian -- 10%
• American Indian/Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander – <1%
• Multiple Races– 5%
A notable change in this year’s racial diversity was an increase in the percentage of Hispanic students and corresponding decreases in other races. This shift may stem from difference in how the US Census designates race or may indicate a new trend. ESOL/HILT/HILTEX Population
The percent of students enrolled in the ESOL/HILT/HILTEX program remained steady as a proportion of the general population. In 2001, the percentage of students receiving ESOL/HILT services peaked at a total of 26%, including 35% of elementary students and 17% of secondary students. Projections for 2011 are for 3,726 ESOL/HILT students, 17% of the projected PreK-12 total. Free and Reduced Lunch The percentage of students receiving free and reduced lunch benefits has declined from a high of 41% in 1996 but has remained stable for the last several years. Currently, 32% of students receive this service. Since 1992, the percentage of APS students receiving this benefit has fluctuated between 30% and 41% of the population (Chart 5). Special Education
The percentage of students receiving Special Education services is currently 14% of total APS population. Since 1995, the percent of Special Education students has remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 14% and 17% (Chart 6).
8
Chart 3. Racial/Ethnic Breakdowns from 1979 – 2010. (Office of Planning and Evaluation)
Summary of K-12 Civil Rights Statistics
Fall 1979 to 2010
Arlington Public Schools
9.4 11.714.3 14.8 14.9 14.3 14.5 13.8 13.1 12.2 11.3 10.6 10.5 10.3 9.9 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.1 9.8 10.1 10.2 10.0 10.0 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.9 10.8 10.7 11.1 9.7
16.016.0
15.5 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.2 15.8 16.4 16.6 16.5 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.7 17.8 17.5 17.2 17.2 16.7 15.7 14.9 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.1 13.8 13.5 12.9 12.711.3
6.57.1
8.29.7 11.1 13.2 14.7 17.2 18.4 19.7 22.0 23.4 25.0 27.1 28.1 29.8 30.2 30.8 31.2 32.4 32.4 33.2 33.9 33.9 32.3 30.9 29.0 27.2 26.4 26.7 26.3 28.2
68.065.1
61.9 59.7 58.0 56.2 54.5 53.1 52.0 51.4 50.1 48.6 47.1 45.1 44.2 42.7 42.3 42.1 41.4 41.1 41.6 41.5 41.8 41.7 42.7 44.0 45.8 47.0 47.9 48.1 48.4 45.7
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%1
97
9
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Asian Black Hispanic White
9
Chart 4. Percent of Students receiving ESOL/HILT services from 1979 – 2010. (Office of ESOL/HILT)
Percent of Students Enrolled in ESOL/HILT
1979 to 2010Arlington Public Schools
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Pe
rce
nt
of
To
tal
En
roll
me
nt
Elementary Secondary Total
10
Chart 5. Percent of Students Receiving Free/Reduced Lunch Benefits, 1995 - 2010. (Office of Food Services)
Percent of Students Receiving
Free/Reduced Lunch
1995 - 2010
38 41 40 39 39 39 38 38 36 36 35 3430 32 32 32
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
11
Chart 6. Percent of Students Receiving Special Education Services, 1995 – 2010. (Office of Student Services)
Percent of Students Receiving
Special Education Services
1995 - 2010
1516 16
17 1716
17 17 17 17 1716 16
15 1514
10
12
14
16
18
20
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
12
Enrollment Changes by School The following tables and maps show changes in K-12 enrollment from 2005 to 2010 (September 30th data) by school. Only four schools have seen decreasing enrollment over this period, the rest have experienced increases up 57% of their population The net change in enrollment from 2005 to 2008 is an increase of 2,831 K-12 students (16%). Approximately 71% of this increase has occurred at the elementary level. The accompanying maps show that population growth, particularly at the elementary school level, has occurred in all areas of the County. Table 1. Changes in K–5 Enrollment by Elementary School School 2005 2010 Difference Percent
Abingdon 325 464 139 43%
ASF 410 529 119 29%
ATS 419 430 11 3%
Ashlawn 284 397 113 40%
Barcroft 331 356 25 8%
Barrett 312 485 173 55%
Campbell 229 333 104 45%
Carlin Springs 429 518 89 21%
Claremont 378 460 82 22%
Drew Model 371 447 76 20%
Glebe 295 453 158 54%
Henry 307 362 55 18%
Hoffman-Boston 325 265 -60 -18%
Jamestown 510 551 41 8%
Key 564 593 29 5%
Long Branch 390 487 97 25%
McKinley 356 485 129 36%
Nottingham 367 576 209 57%
Oakridge 404 602 198 49%
Randolph 327 369 42 13%
Taylor 564 659 95 17%
Tuckahoe 531 619 88 17%
Total Elementary 8428 10440 2012 24%
Table 2. Changes in Enrollment by Secondary School School 2005 2010 Difference Percent
Gunston 602 721 119 20%
Jefferson 598 594 -4 -1%
Kenmore 724 704 -20 -3%
Swanson 754 892 138 18%
Williamsburg 937 948 11 1%
H-B Woodlawn 211 222 11 5%
Total Middle Cap 3826 4081 255 7%
Wakefield 1487 1344 -143 -10%
Washington-Lee 1524 1914 390 26%
Yorktown 1637 1723 86 5%
H-B Woodlawn 380 384 4 1%
Total High Cap 5028 5365 337 7%
Total APS 18069 20900 2831 16%
13
Map 1. Percent Enrollment Change 2005 to 2010 – Elementary Schools
14
Map 2. Percent Enrollment Change 2005 to 2010 – Middle Schools
15
Map 3. Percent Enrollment Change 2005 to 2010 – High Schools
16
Projection Methodology Total K-12 Population for 2011 The projected PreK-12 APS enrollment for September 30, 2011 is 22,201 students, an increase of 960 students (4.5%) from 2010. The K-12 student projection is 21,064 students, an increase of 863 K-12 students (4.3%) from September 30, 2010. A range of projection models was examined and a three-year average rate of change model was adopted to represent the projected enrollment increase for the out years. Total Grade Level and School Populations
Once the total K-12 projection was established, the three-year average cohort-survival rates were used to determine the grade level projections. The three-year average cohort-survival rates were then used within each school to determine the student population by grade. All numbers were cross-checked against current enrollment to ensure validity. Total Kindergarten student projection was derived from a three-year average capture rate from resident live births from five years prior.
APS Projections for K-12 enrollment, as of September 30th (Table 3):
Year PreK Elementary Middle High K-12 Total PreK-12 Total
2000 548 9,166 3,930 5,178 18,334 18,882
2005 811 8,428 3,826 5,305 17,600 18,411
2010 1,040 10,440 4,096 5,665 20201 21,241
2011 1,137 10,981 4,255 5,828 21,064 22,201
2012 1,137 11,364 4,627 5,923 21,914 23,051
2013 1,137 11,953 4,890 6,190 23,033 24,170
2014 1,137 12,279 5,158 6,432 23,869 25,006
2015 1,137 12,407 5,522 6,801 24,730 25,867
2016 1,137 12,477 5,957 7,192 25,626 26,763
17
APS Projection Process Projections of student enrollment are produced twice a year, after examining a wide range of projection models (see Chart 7, below). Fall projections of the upcoming six school years are published every November, based on the membership report of September 30th. These numbers are used to create the Superintendent’s Budget for the next fiscal year. Spring updates to the projections are then produced every February, and use the January 31st enrollment counts to fine-tune the fall projections. It is from the spring projections that staffing decisions for the next fiscal year are made. Chart 7. Projected K-12 Enrollments for School Years 2011-16 (November 2010).
K-12 Enrollment
Projections 2011-2016
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
28000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Stu
den
ts
5 Year Forecast
5 Year Average
3 Year Average
18
Changes in Arlington County Housing Demographics (Arlington County Housing Division, October 2008) Arlington has undergone significant change in the area of housing over the last decade. Although the impact of the recent economic downturn on student enrollment will not be fully measured for several years, staff continues to monitor housing trends. The overall residential property values declined by 2.5% from the previous year. In 2010, the average County-wide rent was $1,742, an increase of 2% from 2009. The 2010 vacancy rate was 3.4%, reflecting a tight rental market. Although the total number of housing units in Arlington will increase over the next decade, most of the new development will be multi-family units concentrated in the Rosslyn-Ballston and Jefferson Davis corridors. About 64% of Arlington’s rental units are one-bedroom or efficiency apartments. These units are generally more attractive to smaller households with few or no children. About 32% of units are two-bedrooms, and approximately 4% are three-bedrooms or larger. Student Generation Factor
APS’ Facility Planning department works with planners in the County government to create a “student generation factor” which enables staff to predict changes in specific student populations due to housing construction, conversion or renovation. This factor is updated yearly and contributes to staff knowledge of student demographics in Arlington. The work done to date indicates that the majority of APS students come from single family detached homes (55%), and that this percentage has increased since first calculated in 2005. The next biggest group of students (22%) resides in garden apartment (less than four-story buildings). Yet, countywide, single family detached homes and garden apartment buildings together account for only 42% of Arlington’s housing stock. As garden apartments are converted to condominiums or are renovated and rented as luxury units, the generation factor decreases and student population declines. Currently, very few APS students reside in high-rise apartment or condominium units. Staff continues to track this population to determine if families with children will begin to stay in these types of housing units as home-ownership costs rise and housing availability decreases.
19
For the purposes of the generation factor analysis, Arlington County’s housing units are broken down into the following five major categories:
1. Single Family Detached Houses 2. Apartments
a. Garden - 4 stories or less b. Elevator - 5 stories or greater
3. Duplexes 4. Condominiums
a. Garden - 4 stories or less b. Elevator - 5 stories or greater
5. Townhouses Using GIS technology, Facilities staff determines the number of APS students who live in each housing type within the County. From there, a generation factor by housing type was calculated. The resulting table summarizes this information. Staff updates the generation factor on a yearly basis to examine trends over time. Table 4. 2010-11 Student Generation Factor by Housing Type. (Facilities Planning Dept)
Housing Type APS Students
% Students by Type
Countywide Units
% of County Housing Type
Generation Factor
Single Family Detached 11,667 55% 27,416 27% 0.43
Apartment - Garden 4,569 22% 15,629 15% 0.29
Apartment - Elevator 1,883 9% 26,629 26% 0.07
Duplex 985 5% 2,231 2% 0.44
Condo - Garden 892 4% 107,32 11% 0.08
Condo - Elevator 576 3% 15,610 15% 0.04
Townhouse 453 2% 3,419 3% 0.13
TOTAL* 21,025 100% 101,666 100% 0.21 *One percent of students had unidentifiable addresses, meaning they live outside of Arlington, parcel information was not available
for their address, or their information was incorrectly recorded in the Student Master File.
20
Student generation factors have been tracked since school year 2004-05. Over that time, the generation factors for single family homes and townhouses have seen the greatest increases. Table 5. Comparisons of Generation Factors and Percent of Students by Housing Type. (Facilities Planning Dept)
Housing Type 04-05 Gen Factor
08-09 Gen Factor
10-11 Gen Factor
04-05 % Students
08-09 % Students
10-11 % Students
Single Family Detached 0.35 0.40 0.43 51% 57% 55% Apartment - Garden 0.27 0.26 0.29 24% 21% 22% Apartment - Elevator 0.07 0.06 0.07 9% 8% 9%
Duplex 0.46 0.45 0.44 5% 5% 5% Condo - Garden 0.07 0.07 0.08 3% 4% 4% Condo - Elevator 0.04 0.03 0.04 2% 3% 3% Townhouse 0.09 0.12 0.13 2% 2% 2% TOTAL 0.20 0.19 0.21 100% 100% 100%
Neighborhood Generation Factors
For the past several years, staff has worked with County planners to calculate student generation factors for Arlington’s metro station areas. Table 6 and Map 4 show the result of those calculations. At present, the generation factors for the neighborhoods near metro (subway) stops are generally very low. Staff intends to continue to track these specific factors over time. The change in factors between 2008 and 2010 is also shown below.
21
Table 6 and Map 4. 2010-11. Student Generation Factor by Metro Station Areas. (Facilities Planning Department)
Metro Station Area
APS Students
Total Housing
Units
2008-09 Generation
Factor
2010-11 Generation
Factor
Ballston 520 7741 0.06 0.07
Clarendon 233 2778 0.07 0.08 Columbia Pike 5108 17123 0.28 0.30
Crystal City 324 7581 0.03 0.04
Courthouse 594 7457 0.07 0.08 East Falls Church 81 590 0.11 0.14
Lee Highway 922 4861 0.17 0.19
Nauck 297 866 0.38 0.34 Pentagon City 112 5279 0.02 0.02
Rosslyn 408 7249 0.06 0.06
Shirlington 308 2782 0.11 0.11 Virginia Square 259 3692 0.07 0.07
22
Analysis of Race and Housing Type
Over the last several publications of the AFSAP, the student generation factor analysis has included race component to its examination, looking at the race of students who are affected by changes in housing. What becomes clear is that students are not generated “equally” by increasing or decreasing housing units. Decreasing the number of garden apartments, for example, will more likely impact minority students. Asian, Black and Hispanic students, for example, account for 95% of the students who live in this type of apartment. White students have a very different experience; 85% of White APS students live in single family homes. Tables 7 and 8 provide a more detailed look at the relationship between housing type and student race. Table 9 provides a breakdown of housing type by school attended. Table 7. Race Breakdowns by Housing Type, October 2010 Data. (Facilities Planning Department)
Housing Type Am Indian Asian Black Hispanic Pac Isl White Multiple Total
Apartment - Garden 13 596 1002 2633 7 240 78 4569
Percent 0.3% 13.0% 21.9% 57.6% 0.2% 5.3% 1.7% 100%
Apartment - Elevator 9 372 401 573 3 438 86 1882
Percent 0.5% 19.8% 21.3% 30.4% 0.2% 23.3% 4.6% 100% Single Family Detached 19 672 521 1779 4 7980 690 11665
Percent 0.2% 5.8% 4.5% 15.3% 0.0% 68.4% 5.9% 100%
Duplex 3 112 177 537 2 118 33 982
Percent 0.3% 11.4% 18.0% 54.7% 0.2% 12.0% 3.4% 100%
Townhouse 0 60 64 95 0 197 37 453
Percent 0.0% 13.2% 14.1% 21.0% 0.0% 43.5% 8.2% 100%
Condo - Garden 0 103 119 315 0 292 63 892
Percent 0.0% 11.5% 13.3% 35.3% 0.0% 32.7% 7.1% 100%
Condo - Elevator 2 126 75 198 2 134 1 538
Percent 0.4% 23.4% 13.9% 36.8% 0.4% 24.9% 0.2% 100%
Total 46 2041 2359 6130 18 9399 988 20981
23
Table 8. Housing Type by Race, October 2010 Data. (Facilities Planning Department)
Housing Type by Race
Am Indian n=46
Asian n=2041
Black n=2359
Hispanic n=6130
Pac Isl n=18
White n=9399
Multiple n=988
Apartment - Garden 28.3% 29.2% 42.5% 43.0% 38.9% 2.6% 7.9%
Apartment - Elevator 19.6% 18.2% 17.0% 9.3% 16.7% 4.7% 8.7%
Single Family Detached 41.3% 32.9% 22.1% 29.0% 22.2% 84.9% 69.8%
Duplex 6.5% 5.5% 7.5% 8.8% 11.1% 1.3% 3.3%
Townhouse 0.0% 2.9% 2.7% 1.5% 0.0% 2.1% 3.7%
Condo - Garden 0.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% 0.0% 3.1% 6.4%
Condo - Elevator 4.3% 6.2% 3.2% 3.2% 11.1% 1.4% 0.1%
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
24
Table 9. Housing Type by School Attended, October 2010 Data. (Facilities Planning Department)
Single Family
Home Condo - Garden
Condo - Elevator Apt - Garden Apt - Elevator Townhouse Duplex
School Enroll- ment # % # % # % #
% # % # % # %
Abingdon 504 85 16.9% 137 27.2% 5 1.0% 179 35.5% 70 13.9% 8 1.6% 14 2.8%
ASF 547 234 42.8% 7 1.3% 64 11.7% 97 17.7% 91 16.6% 37 6.8% 5 0.9%
ATS 448 359 80.1% 12 2.7% 15 3.3% 24 5.4% 22 4.9% 12 2.7% 5 1.1%
Ashlawn 429 279 65.0% 8 1.9% 13 3.0% 32 7.5% 59 13.8% 19 4.4% 13 3.0%
Barcroft 411 140 34.1% 11 2.7% 34 8.3% 167 40.6% 10 2.4% 8 1.9% 24 5.8%
Barrett 544 215 39.5% 27 5.0% 3 0.6% 273 50.2% 19 3.5% 6 1.1% 1 0.2%
Campbell 402 115 28.6% 28 7.0% 32 8.0% 112 27.9% 58 14.4% 11 2.7% 36 9.0%
Carlin Springs 600 46 7.7% 39 6.5% 36 6.0% 272 45.3% 128 21.3% 7 1.2% 72 12.0%
Claremont 528 251 47.5% 85 16.1% 10 1.9% 84 15.9% 40 7.6% 10 1.9% 35 6.6%
Drew 556 238 42.8% 24 4.3% 30 5.4% 135 24.3% 46 8.3% 12 2.2% 60 10.8%
Glebe 490 357 72.9% 19 3.9% 4 0.8% 38 7.8% 26 5.3% 28 5.7% 9 1.8%
Henry 406 163 40.1% 31 7.6% 2 0.5% 49 12.1% 69 17.0% 6 1.5% 67 16.5% Hoffman-Boston 393 98 24.9% 23 5.9% 9 2.3% 128 32.6% 91 23.2% 7 1.8% 29 7.4%
Jamestown 581 547 94.1% 1 0.2% 7 1.2% 11 1.9% 6 1.0% 6 1.0% 0 0.0%
Key 649 319 49.2% 10 1.5% 17 2.6% 197 30.4% 53 8.2% 23 3.5% 16 2.5%
Long Branch 513 298 58.1% 11 2.1% 0 0.0% 119 23.2% 13 2.5% 15 2.9% 20 3.9%
McKinley 489 439 89.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 43 8.8% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 4 0.8%
Nottingham 584 578 99.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 5 0.9% 0 0.0%
Oakridge 624 193 30.9% 13 2.1% 18 2.9% 96 15.4% 231 37.0% 13 2.1% 44 7.1%
Randolph 432 84 19.4% 3 0.7% 4 0.9% 324 75.0% 3 0.7% 7 1.6% 5 1.2%
Taylor 686 632 92.1% 1 0.1% 5 0.7% 19 2.8% 8 1.2% 19 2.8% 0 0.0%
Tuckahoe 638 601 94.2% 3 0.5% 0 0.0% 11 1.7% 0 0.0% 16 2.5% 3 0.5%
Total Elem 11454 6271 54.7% 493 4.3% 308 2.7% 2410 21.0% 1043 9.1% 275 2.4% 462 4.0%
25
Single Family
Home Condo - Garden
Condo - Elevator Apt - Garden Apt - Elevator Townhouse Duplex
School Enroll ment # % # % # % #
% # % # % # %
Gunston 721 278 38.6% 61 8.5% 24 3.3% 151 20.9% 112 15.5% 19 2.6% 64 8.9%
Jefferson 594 232 39.1% 24 4.0% 6 1.0% 209 35.2% 50 8.4% 6 1.0% 43 7.2%
Kenmore 704 242 34.4% 54 7.7% 37 5.3% 216 30.7% 88 12.5% 2 0.3% 57 8.1%
Swanson 892 669 75.0% 9 1.0% 19 2.1% 119 13.3% 35 3.9% 21 2.4% 4 0.4%
Williamsburg 948 771 81.3% 15 1.6% 25 2.6% 61 6.4% 33 3.5% 16 1.7% 10 1.1%
Total Middle 3859 2192 56.8% 163 4.2% 111 2.9% 756 19.6% 318 8.2% 64 1.7% 178 4.6%
Wakefield 1344 399 29.7% 97 7.2% 35 2.6% 408 30.4% 168 12.5% 39 2.9% 158 11.8%
Washington-Lee 1914 900 47.0% 70 3.7% 63 3.3% 469 24.5% 224 11.7% 28 1.5% 116 6.1%
Yorktown 1723 1329 77.1% 21 1.2% 37 2.1% 211 12.2% 63 3.7% 17 1.0% 15 0.9% H-B Woodlawn 384 435 113.3% 27 7.0% 11 2.9% 71 18.5% 24 6.3% 21 5.5% 16 4.2%
Arlington Mill 181 44 24.3% 15 8.3% 6 3.3% 177 97.8% 25 13.8% 2 1.1% 31 17.1%
Langston 90 38 42.2% 2 2.2% 3 3.3% 37 41.1% 6 6.7% 1 1.1% 6 6.7%
Total High 5636 3145 55.8% 232 4.1% 155 2.8% 1373 24.4% 510 9.0% 108 1.9% 342 6.1%
Total APS 20949 11608 55.4% 888 4.2% 574 2.7% 4539 21.7% 1871 8.9% 447 2.1% 982 4.7%
26
Capacity In the fall of 2010, Arlington Public Schools’ student capacity was 22,762 seats. This number does not include additional capacity provided by relocatable classrooms. In 2010, APS was at 91% of its building capacity and had 1,968 seats available countywide. These seats, however, are not evenly distributed throughout APS buildings. If growth continues on projection and no changes are made to current capacity, APS will be at a 115% capacity utilization rate in 2016, with a shortage of 3,387 seats. Historically, capacity numbers have been calculated differently for elementary and secondary schools. Elementary schools’ capacity is generated by multiplying the number of classrooms times by a planning factor (23.33 students) and then adding in PreK and Special Education programs which have a particular capacity number. Secondary schools’ capacity is generated by multiplying the number of rooms of a certain use by the capacity assigned to that room use times a 6/7th utilization factor (to account for the one period a day that a room would not have students in it). The capacity breakdown for elementary schools is provided in the following table. Capacity breakdowns for secondary schools are attached in the Appendix. Changes to Capacity Figures
Capacity numbers are not fixed, but change when the functions of school spaces change. Increasing the number of classroom teaching stations, adding or moving PreK or Special Education programs, and converting computer labs into standard classrooms are examples of use changes that may result in a new capacity figure for a particular building. Staff updates capacity numbers on a yearly basis, usually at the beginning of the school year. This, in turn, may affect the capacity utilization rate for the schools.
27
Table 10. Elementary school capacities (Fall 2010).
K-5 x 23.33 Total
Classrooms Plan
Factor VPI Montessori PreK SE
Other Spec Ed Program Classrooms Capacity
Abingdon 23 537 32 8 12 MIPA & PAC 28 589
Arl Science Focus 23 537 16 24 553
ATS* 18 438 16 6 MIPA (preK) 20 460
Ashlawn 17 397 23 16 20 436
Barcroft 18 420 32 8 21 460
Barrett 22 513 32 23 8 26 576
Campbell 15 350 32 46 8 20 436
Carlin Springs 22 513 64 8 27 585
Claremont 22 513 32 46 8 27 599
Drew 20 467 32 115 8 6 MIPA 29 628
Glebe 20 467 23 8 12 Life Skills 21 510
Henry^ 17 397 32 16 18 TOPS/Comm 24 463
Hoffman-Boston 18 420 80 46 8 12 MIPA 28 566
Jamestown 24 560 23 8 6 MIPA 28 597
Key 25 583 16 46 8 29 653
Long Branch~ 22 513 14 6 MIPA 24 533
McKinley 19 443 19 443
Nottingham 22 513 22 513
Oakridge 23 537 16 8 20 Interlude 27 581
Randolph 18 420 48 16 23 484
Taylor 28 653 6 MIPA 29 659
Tuckahoe 22 513 8 23 521
TOTAL 458 10703 494 391 152 104 0 539 11845
28
Capacity Analysis Summary
Arlington Public Schools has experienced extraordinary growth over the past five years. Analysis of birth to Kindergarten capture rates and increases in the number of children born to Arlington residents in recent years are indicators that we will continue to see increased enrollment for at least the next several years. This growing population of students is quickly filling available capacity around the County. Elementary schools will reach 100% capacity system-wide next fall. Middle and high schools will be at 100% of available seats by 2014. As growth continues, our opportunities to respond on a facilities-basis become more limited. Staff is working on ways to both increase capacity and balance enrollment between schools, as outlined in the Progressive Planning Model introduced last year. Continued efforts on the part of the School Board, staff, and community will be required to solve this pressing problem.
29
Table 11. APS Building Capacities and Projected Student Enrollment, 2010-16 (Elementary)
30
Table 11. APS Building Capacities and Projected Student Enrollment, 2010-16 (Secondary)
31
Relocatables Relocatable classrooms or “relocatables” are used at schools where student population exceeds capacity, to provide space for programs that cannot be housed in the main building, or to provide temporary classroom space during construction projects. Currently, the following APS schools and buildings have relocatable classrooms or offices on campus. Table 13. Relocatable Status for School Year 2010-11.
Units Classrooms
School Single
(14x60) Double (24x36) Other Total
Full Room
Capacity Sub-
divided Total Comments
Barcroft 11 11 10 3 13
5 dedicated Even Start (am)/ 3 REEP (pm) classrooms
Barrett 5 5 4 Carlin Springs 5 5 4 Glebe 5 5 4
Jefferson 1 1 2 2 Pathways McKinley 3 3 2 2 HB Woodlawn 2 2 2 2 Stratford 1 1 1 1 Nottingham 4 4 2 2 Tuckahoe 6 6 6 6
Williamsburg 9 1 10 14 3 17 Yorktown 9 9 8 8 Construction Project
Total 35 16 2 62 59 6 13
32
Relocatable Analysis Continued increases in enrollment in Arlington’s schools will likely result in the need for additional relocatables in future years. APS has begun purchasing some units (instead of leasing) as more cost-effective means of providing classrooms over a long-term. Due to concerns about space limitations on some school sites, staff has developed a Relocatable Maximization Study that will allow for better planning for relocatables in the future. The Study is not intended to be a predetermined plan for relocatable placement, but to highlight opportunities for additional capacity and potential problems at schools where space for additional relocatables does not exist. The Study will be available on the APS website under Facilities Planning.
Relocatable Plan
The APS Relocatable Plan provides information about the processes and timelines used in requesting, setting and removing relocatables from school property and is part of the Appendix.
33
Review of Former AFSAP Decision Points (FY 2010-15) and Progress Made Below are the Decision Points that were included in the previous AFSAP. The progress made on each of the points is also described.
1. Developing a long-term plan for continuation of leased administrative space (or other options) for programs and support functions currently housed in leased spaces including the Clarendon Education Center, Syphax Academic Center, and Employee Assistance Program offices.
o An RFP for real estate consultant services has been offered and staff are in process of selecting a team to
support this effort.
2. Moving forward with plans to redevelop the Wilson School site to include an elementary school or look for other options to increase elementary school student capacity.
o The School Board continues to discuss the use of the Wilson School site with the County Board.
3. Consolidating our two high school continuation programs into a single facility.
o This option is still under consideration as an option in the Progressive Planning Model. Concerns about
instruction, accessibility for students, transportation, and cost would require further examination.
4. Revising the 5/7th secondary school capacity model.
o Capacity for secondary schools now uses 6/7th utilization model.
5. When to consider boundary changes or other actions to alleviate crowding at the secondary level.
o The Progressive Planning Model presented last year provides a framework for analyzing options to increase capacity and balance enrollment. Staff and the Board continue to use the PPM to plan for future solutions.
34
New Decision Points
Staff recommends the following decision points be examined and the suggested next steps taken:
1. Clearly delineate and quantify the capacity problems to be solved (both system-wide and at individual schools) and the time frame in which they will be solved.
2. Evaluate options presented as part of the Progressive Planning Model.
3. Determine which options will be implemented over a 3-5 year timeframe.
4. Make suggestions for permanent capacity building projects for consideration in next year’s Capital Improvement Plan.
5. Continue planning for efficient use of leased spaces.
Conclusions and Next Steps The data compiled in the AFSAP suggest that APS will continue to experience increased enrollment pressure and capacity concerns for the foreseeable future. School Board direction is needed on priorities and direction. Staff recommends scheduling a School Board work session in February 2011 to begin addressing decision points 1-3 in order to make recommendations that can be communicated to school communities by April 2011.
35
Capacity Utilization 2010 – Elementary Schools
36
Projected Capacity Utilization 2016 – Elementary Schools
37
Capacity Utilization 2010 – Middle Schools
38
Projected Capacity Utilization 2016 – Middle Schools
39
Capacity Utilization 2010 – High Schools
40
Projected Capacity Utilization 2016 – High Schools
