Armenian National Study February 15... · 2017-07-13 · Armenian National Study January 13 – 20,...

Armenian National Study

January 13 – 20, 2008

International Republican Institute

Baltic Surveys Ltd. / The Gallup Organization

Armenian Sociological Association

with funding from the

United States Agency for International Development

METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY� This national representative survey was conducted on January 13 –20,

2007, by the Armenian Sociological Association (ASA) for Baltic Surveys/Gallup on behalf of the International Republican Institute.

� The sample consisted of 1,200 Armenian residents over the age of 18 andeligible to vote and is representative of the general population by age,gender, education and religion.

� The sample design was a multi-stage random sample.– Stage One: Break country into official administrative regions.– Stage Two: Select clusters of sampling points based on settlement

population (large, medium, small towns and villages). One sample point = approximately one percent of survey population (10-12

IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, ASA ARMENIAN NATIONAL VOTERS STUDY, January 20082

population (large, medium, small towns and villages). One sample point = approximately one percent of survey population (10-12 surveys). Sampling points in each region were selected based on the percentage of population living in the various levels of settlement in that same region.

� Respondents were selected by the random route method, using the next birthday rule to select a respondent from within a household.

� Data is collected through face-to-face interviews with the respondents.� Poll was conducted nationwide, including the capital and all major regional

centers.� The margin of error does not exceed three percent.� Response rate was 57 percent.

SOCIOSOCIO--DEMOGRAPHICSDEMOGRAPHICS


Gender

Male47%

Female53%


Age groups18-2927%50+

31%

30-4942%

Religion

Armenian Apostolic98%

Other2%


Attendance of religious service

Never8%

Every day1%

A few times a week1%

Once a week6%

Once a month24%

A few times per year60%

Sector of Employment

Private28%

Don't work58%

State14%


Membership in OrganizationsMember of nongovernmental

organization1%

Member of a party7%

None92%

Type of settlement

Rural34%

Capital37%

Towns29%


RegionsYerevan

37%West-Center

29%

East8%

North20%

South6%

MOOD OF THE COUNTRYMOOD OF THE COUNTRY


Generally speaking, do you think that things in Armenia are going in Generally speaking, do you think that things in Armenia are going in the right direction or the wrong direction?the right direction or the wrong direction?

41

40

49

49

53

44

10

7

7

Oct 2007

Dec 2007

Jan 2008

Right direction Wrong direction Don't know, no answer


31

36

38

55

62

58

50

54

13

7

10

14

8

32

32

0 20 40 60 80 100

May 2006

Aug 2006

Nov 2006

Mar 2007

Jul 2007

Over the last three months, the economic situation in Over the last three months, the economic situation in Armenia has…?Armenia has…?

2

5

29

25

40

31

39

36

22

22

11

14

10

6

2

2

3

1

Oct 2007

Dec 2007

Jan 2008

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the sameWorsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer


2

3

1

3

38

37

31

28

29

33

39

40

49

39

13

15

16

13

20

10

6

7

7

7

3

2

4

1

1

2

0 20 40 60 80 100

May 2006

Aug 2006

Nov 2006

Mar 2007

Jul 2007

Over the last three months, the financial situation of your Over the last three months, the financial situation of your household has…?household has…?

1

3

16

16

26

49

51

50

20

19

14

14

12

7

1

1

Oct 2007

Dec 2007

Jan 2008

Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same

Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know, no answer


1

1

1

2

21

25

23

17

21

16

48

50

48

50

50

49

17

17

17

20

20

20

11

7

10

11

7

14

2

1

1

1

1

0 20 40 60 80 100

May 2006

Aug 2006

Nov 2006

Mar 2007

Jul 2007

Oct 2007

How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Armenia?in Armenia?

4

5

36

37

45

26

34

29

31

24

19

3

2

2

4Oct 2007

Dec 2007

Jan 2008

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA


1

3

4

34

28

36

33

36

24

30

28

30

24

34

38

30

29

32

5

3

5

4

3

3

3

0 20 40 60 80 100

May 2006

Aug 2006

Nov 2006

Mar 2007

Jul 2007

Do you believe that things will get better in Armenia in a short time, Do you believe that things will get better in Armenia in a short time, or will it take a long time for things to improve in the country?or will it take a long time for things to improve in the country?

12

21

73

77

73

15

8

6

15

Jul 2007

Oct 2007

Jan 2008

Short time Long time Not sure/refused


11

12

12

79

82

72

75

73

8

7

10

12

15

18

13

0 20 40 60 80 100

May 2006

Aug 2006

Nov 2006

Mar 2007

Jul 2007

How would you evaluate the prevailing mood of the Armenian How would you evaluate the prevailing mood of the Armenian population?population?

22

23

2327

24

4

6

64 5

3

28

44

56

555

910

74 54

1042 22322 2

60

70

80

90

100

No answer

Total disbelief in anyimprovement

Insecurity, fear for future


12

49

42 4350

45 40

12 12 1618913

33

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

Jan 2008 Oct 2007 Jul 2007 Mar 2007 Nov 2006 Aug 2006 May 2006

Apathy

Not much hope for thefuture

Hope that the future willbe somewhat better

Belief that the future willbe definitely better

Over the past year, has your attitude toward the way things are Over the past year, has your attitude toward the way things are developing in the country become more optimistic, more developing in the country become more optimistic, more

pessimistic, or remained the same?pessimistic, or remained the same?

42

54

67

36

33

26

20

10

6

Jul 2007

Oct 2007

Jan 2008

Optimism Neutral Pessimism


56

57

62

55

30

27

28

11

13

31

9

10

0 20 40 60 80 100

May 2006

Aug 2006

Nov 2006

Mar 2007

Over the last year, your attitude towards the way things are Over the last year, your attitude towards the way things are developing in Armenia has become…?developing in Armenia has become…?

58

12

18 3021

17

2 5 1 3 3 1 2

25

23

60

80

100

DK/NA

Morepessimistic


28 2417 16

22 24

53

5260 49

57

18

58

0

20

40

Jan 2008 Oct 2007 Jul 2007 Mar 2007 Nov 2006 Aug 2006 May 2006

Stayed thesame

Moreoptimistic

ISSUESISSUES


What are the main problems that Armenia is facing at the moment? What are the main problems that Armenia is facing at the moment?

16

7

6

3

3

2

40

32

20

15

12

10

6

9

5

5

29

10

Unemployment

Socio-economic situation

Problem of Nagorno Karabakh*

Development of the economy, industry

Corruption

Recognition of genocide

Domestic policy, elections

Migration

Poor implementation of laws


2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

4

5

5

4

3

3

3

2

2

3

2

9

Poor implementation of laws

Foreign policy

Educational and cultural issues

Slow development of democracy

Military and peace issues

Transport, roads

Poor health care

Turkish blockade

Ecology

Other

DK/NA

First mention

All mentions

* Between 1991-1994 Armenia and Azerbaijan engaged in military conflict for possession of this disputed territory

What are three main problems your town/village is facing What are three main problems your town/village is facing at the moment?at the moment?

23

15

13

11

7

3

3

3

30

25

21

19

14

6

6

Unemployment

Housing, communal services

Transport, road conditions

Sanitation

Development of economy / industry / agriculture

Creation of places for entertainment, leisure

Low salaries, pensions, high prices


3

3

2

2

2

1

1

5

7

4

6

4

5

4

3

2

11

Illegal construction

Ecology

Corruption

Education, religion, culture, nation, values

Migration

Poor health care

Poverty, social inequality

Other

DK/NA

First mention

All mentions

What are the three most important problems for you and your What are the three most important problems for you and your household members?household members?

21

7

6

41

28

23

15

7

15

30Socio-economic situation

Unemployment

Housing, communal services

Education, health care

Financial problems, taxes, insurance


2

1

3

2

12

5

3

1

6

2Decisions of communal problems

Migration

Peace

Other

No problems

DK/NA

First mention

All mentions

Thinking about the current situation and future of your Thinking about the current situation and future of your country, what are the three things that you are most afraid of?country, what are the three things that you are most afraid of?

18

19

15

13

10

7

33

3

7

7

11

14

15Uncertainty for the future

Problem of Nagorno Karabakh

War / security

Socio-economic situation

Unemployment

Migration

Elections


17

3

5

3

4

4

2

3

2

179

1

1

2

2

2

2

3Slow economic/agricultural development

Bad relations with other countries

Corruption

Lack of recognition of the genocide

National calamities, epidemics

Not implementing laws

Human indifference

Other

DK/NA

First mention

All mentions

Do you think it is acceptable for some groups to use the Do you think it is acceptable for some groups to use the following methods of protest?following methods of protest?

70

61

42

27

36

53

3

3

5

Legal demonstrations

Legal strikes

Collecting signatures forpetition, letter

Acceptable Not acceptable No opinion


42

30

25

23

15

53

64

72

73

79

5

6

4

4

5

petition, letter

Boycott

Demonstrations withoutpermission

Strikes withoutpermission

Occupation of buildingsor enterprises

POLITICSPOLITICS


What should the Armenian government accomplish first to attract the What should the Armenian government accomplish first to attract the support of the majority of the Armenian population? support of the majority of the Armenian population?

2613

10

6

5

5

4

3

37

18

24

13

10

7

6

8

Create jobs

Fulfill promises

Increase salaries, pensions

Fight corruption

Develop economy

Improve living conditions

Implement laws

Stabilize prices, cut taxes


2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

7

9

8

4

3

5

3

4

2

3

3

12

Stabilize prices, cut taxes

Return Soviet-era deposits

Increase democratic reforms

Solve the problem of Nagorno Karabakh

Reconstruct apartments

Improve the educational system

Carry out fair elections

Slow migration

Improve health care

Other

DK/NA

First mention

All mentions

How much interest do you have in politics?How much interest do you have in politics?

39

30

31

36

32

28

32

30

28

41

37

34

1

Jul 2007

Oct 2007

Dec 2007

Jan 2008

Low interest Medium interest High interest DK/NA


35

39

37

34

39

27

30

25

30

32

37

31

37

35

28

1

1

1

0 20 40 60 80 100

May 2006

Aug 2006

Nov 2006

Mar 2007

Jul 2007

Do you plan on voting in the next presidential election?Do you plan on voting in the next presidential election?

53

50

31

31

4

8

4

2

6

9

2Dec 2007

Jan 2008

Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no Have not decided yet DK/NA


47

42

32

32

6

8

3

3

11

13

1

2

0 20 40 60 80 100

Oct 2007

Jul 2007

What were the major mistakes and failures of the Armenian What were the major mistakes and failures of the Armenian authorities over the last year?authorities over the last year?

21

8

5

5

2

2

26

12

11

8

7

3

4

6

Did not prevent inflation

Did not fight enough against corruption

Failed to address economic/business issues

Sale of important objects

Lack of attention to the people

Falsified the referendum

Ignored laws First mention


2

2

2

2

2

1

5

6

31

4

3

4

2

3

1

5

11

Ignored laws

Poor foreign and internal policy

Degradation of education, culture, national values

Not solving the conflict of Nagorno Karabakh

Unemployment

Failure to address the genocide

All actions were mistakes or failures

Other

DK/NA

First mention

All mentioned

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONSINTERNATIONAL RELATIONS


How would you evaluate the current state of relations between How would you evaluate the current state of relations between Armenia and…?Armenia and…?

98

84

83

7

11

6

5

3

11

2

Russia

European Union

Iran

Good Bad Neither good nor bad DK/NA


68

62

6

1

15

20

90

97

15

16

3

1

2

2

1

1

0 20 40 60 80 100

USA

Georgia

Turkey

Azerbaijan

Which countries are the most important partners for Armenia? Which countries are the most important partners for Armenia? Which comprises the greatest political and economic threat?Which comprises the greatest political and economic threat?

95

5256

91

Partners Threats


37

2924

19

1 1 16 5 5 6

31

10

Russia France Iran EuropeanUnion

Georgia USA Turkey Azerbaijan None DK/NA

How important is it for Armenia to solve the problems related How important is it for Armenia to solve the problems related to Nagorno Karabakh in the near future?to Nagorno Karabakh in the near future?

64

69

63

27

25

31

5

4

4

1

1

1

2

1

1

Jul 2007

Oct 2007

Jan 2008

Very important Rather important Not very important Not at all important DK / NA


77

75

72

70

64

20

21

24

27

27 5

1

1

2

3

2

20.3

0.5

1

2

1

1

0 20 40 60 80 100

May 2006

Aug 2006

Nov 2006

Mar 2007

Jul 2007

Do you think that a peaceful settlement on Nagorno Karabakh can Do you think that a peaceful settlement on Nagorno Karabakh can be reached with Azerbaijan without military force being used? be reached with Azerbaijan without military force being used?

26

23

51

56

14

14

3

2

6

5

Oct 2007

Jan 2008

Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA


19

23

20

22

23

52

52

57

55

53

21

18

13

14

15

3

3

5

2

6

4

5

6

3

5

0 20 40 60 80 100

May 2006

Aug 2006

Nov 2006

Mar 2007

Jul 2007

45

47

48

51

44

40

4

9

12

Jul 2007

Oct 2007

Jan 2008

Should open the border regardless Should not open the border DK/NA

Should the government of Armenia agree to open the border with Turkey even if the Turkish government does not

recognize the genocide?


42

39

43

42

45

48

57

47

45

51

9

4

10

13

4

0 20 40 60 80 100

May 2006

Aug 2006

Nov 2006

Mar 2007

Jul 2007

In your opinion, should Armenia in the future…?In your opinion, should Armenia in the future…?

14 32 28 1313Join NATO

Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no DK/NA


30

51

51

35 6

8

7

9

1

2Join European Union

Remain a member of theCommonwealth of

Independent States

INSTITUTIONSINSTITUTIONS


What is your opinion about the work of each of these institutions?What is your opinion about the work of each of these institutions?

83

83

81

80

77

74

64

12

13

17

13

20

18

33

5

4

2

7

3

8

3

European Union

Commonwealth of Independent States

Church

United Nations

Army

Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe

Armenian media

Favorable Unfavorable No opinion


64

57

53

48

45

45

44

43

36

33

35

43

48

48

52

53

54

61

3

8

4

4

7

4

3

3

3

Armenian media

NATO

Educational system

President's office

Central bank

Government (Cabinet of Ministers)

Armenian Parliament

Police

Political parties

SITUATION OF SOCIAL SITUATION OF SOCIAL GROUPS IN ARMENIAGROUPS IN ARMENIA


GROUPS IN ARMENIAGROUPS IN ARMENIA

Are the needs of the following social groups considered Are the needs of the following social groups considered in Armenia? in Armenia?

11

9

50

61

37

28

2

1

Youth

Elderly

Considered Partially Not considered at all DK/NA


5

10

8

13

47

59

54

51

45

28

32

30

3

3

5

7

Women

Disabled

War veterans

Refugees

What is the prevailing attitude of the Armenian population What is the prevailing attitude of the Armenian population towards disabled persons in Armenia?towards disabled persons in Armenia?

25

24

53

56

15

15

4

2

3

3

Oct 2007

Jan 2008

Very positive Rather positive Rather negative Very negative DK/NA


21

17

25

51

44

53

15

26

15

5

9

4

7

4

3

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mar 2007

Jul 2007

Oct 2007

In your opinion, do disabled people in Armenia have adequate In your opinion, do disabled people in Armenia have adequate access to social services?access to social services?

394940

32

9334

60

70

80

90

100

DK/NA

The majority have noadequate access tosocial services


4444

4855

84

9 90

10

20

30

40

50

Mar 2007Jul 2007Oct 2007Jan 2008

social services

Only some servicesare accessible

The majority of socialservices areaccessible

Who should be responsible for solving the problems of the Who should be responsible for solving the problems of the disabled and caring for their needs?disabled and caring for their needs?

96

92

87

95

92

87

95

74

76

97

92

Government ofArmenia

Family members,relatives

Nongovernmentalorganizations

Jan 2008

Oct 2007


86

82

1

89

82

76

74

68

84

87

78

2

organizations

Local government

Political parties

Other

Jul 2007

Mar 2007

Which of the following take care of the needs and problems of Which of the following take care of the needs and problems of disabled people in Armenia?disabled people in Armenia?

90

48

7

39

3

12

Family members, relatives

Nongovernmentalorganizations

Yes No DK/NA


44

24

24

47

61

64

9

15

12

Government of Armenia

Political parties

Local government

Which institutions, organizations, or nongovernmental organizations Which institutions, organizations, or nongovernmental organizations care about the needs and problems of disabled people in Armenia? care about the needs and problems of disabled people in Armenia?

22

9

5

3

3

2

Armenian Red Cross Society

Ministry of Social Welfare - Paros

Pyunic organization for the disabled

Armenian Assistance Foundation

Bridge of Hope

Prosperous Armenia Party


2

2

2

1

1

1

9

50

1

United Nations

Lus Astgh

Tigran Karapetyan

Charity Foundation

Caritas

Government of Armenia

World Vision

Other

DK/NA

Do disabled people in Armenia have adequate opportunities for Do disabled people in Armenia have adequate opportunities for active participation in political life?active participation in political life?

8

8

53

52

34

37

5

3

Oct 2007

Jan 2008

They have adequate opportunity They have some opportunity They have no opportunities DK/NA


6

6

8

44

41

53

41

50

34

10

3

5

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mar 2007

Jul 2007

Oct 2007

In your opinion, do disabled members of society in Armenia In your opinion, do disabled members of society in Armenia face challenges in finding employment opportunities?face challenges in finding employment opportunities?

35

3140

722122

60

80

100

DK/NA

They do not havedifficulties


5665

57

0

20

40

60

Jan 2008 Oct 2007 Jul 2007

They have somedifficulties

They have majordifficulties

In your opinion, do people who use wheelchairs have adequate In your opinion, do people who use wheelchairs have adequate access to public places? access to public places?

3845

38

4 4 3

60

80

100

DK/NA

They do not haveadequate access in themajority of places


8 5 5

5046

54

0

20

40

60

Jan 2008 Oct 2007 Jul 2007

majority of places

They have access onlyin some places

They have adequateaccess in a majority ofplaces

Do disabled members of society face challenges in seeking Do disabled members of society face challenges in seeking higher education?higher education?

51 43

13

8 128

5 4

60

80

100

DK/NA

They do not havedifficulties


23

37 41

55

0

20

40

60

Jan 2008 Oct 2007 Jul 2007

They have somedifficulties

They have majordifficulties

HEROES OF OUR TIMESHEROES OF OUR TIMES


Of prominent living Armenians and characters from Armenian Of prominent living Armenians and characters from Armenian history and folk culture, who is most suitable to be a national hero history and folk culture, who is most suitable to be a national hero

or leader in the present?or leader in the present?

17

1312

11

20

12


87

6 6

32

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Vaz

gen

Sar

gsya

n

Gri

gor

Nar

ekac

i

Kar

en D

emir

chya

n

And

rani

k

Tigr

an M

etz

Gar

egin

Njd

eh

Var

dan

Mam

ikon

yan

Mon

te

Cha

rles

Asn

avou

r

Dra

stam

at "

Dro

" K

anay

an

Rob

ert K

ocha

ryan

Dav

it B

ek

Gev

ork

Cha

ust

Hov

anes

Tum

anya

n

Ser

ge S

args

yan

Isra

el O

ri

Kir

k K

rkor

yan

Mar

shal

Bag

hram

yan

Vik

tor

Ham

barz

umya

n

And

rani

k M

arga

ryan

Oth

er

DK

/NA

SOURCES OF INFORMATIONSOURCES OF INFORMATION


Which of these sources do you use to obtain political information?Which of these sources do you use to obtain political information?

100

46

42

40

9

99

41

40

36

11

99

37

40

30

TV - news, programs

Articles in newspapers

Relatives, friends

Radio - news, programs

Meetings with politicians


9

9

7

7

5

5

11

9

5

13

7

6

7

10

6

7

7

4


Colleagues at work

Articles in magazines

Billboards, stands in thestreets

Internet

Leaflets, and other freeinformation by post

Jan 2008

Dec 2007

Oct 2007

How much influence do each of the following forms of election How much influence do each of the following forms of election campaigning have on you during a political campaign?campaigning have on you during a political campaign?

17

16

10

9

9

32

32

35

28

23

19

22

25

27

29

29

28

29

33

37

2

2

1

3

2


Meetings with/opinions of respected people

TV ads

Newspaper articles about candidates

Paid media for the candidate or party

Great influence Some influence Not much influence No influence at all DK/NA


9

9

7

7

6

6

6

21

20

19

23

20

16

16

24

22

25

32

28

27

26

43

43

44

37

41

49

50

3

6

5

1

5

2

2

Home visits from the party or candidate

Personal letters to you from the candidate

Telephone calls from the political party or candidate

Leaflets

Radio ads

Billboards

Slogans, signs on public transportation

In your opinion, are people in Armenia afraid to openly In your opinion, are people in Armenia afraid to openly express their political views?express their political views?

31

25

23

28

30

37

23

25

27

16

20

12

1

1

Oct 2007

Dec 2007

Jan 2008

Majority are afraid Many are afraid Some are afraid Nobody is afraid DK/NA


25

26

28

23

34

31

34

32

33

28

31

28

20

23

23

32

20

23

13

17

15

17

15

16

8

2

1

0 20 40 60 80 100

May 2006

Aug 2006

Nov 2006

Mar 2007

Jul 2007

Oct 2007

Do you believe that the 2007 parliamentary elections were Do you believe that the 2007 parliamentary elections were free and fair?free and fair?

21

29

67

58

12

13

Dec 2007

Jan 2008

Free and fair Not free and fair No opinion


19

23

68

63

13

14

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Jul 2007

Oct 2007

Do you think that the Armenian government is implementing Do you think that the Armenian government is implementing antianti--fraud measures for the presidential elections and that fraud measures for the presidential elections and that

they will indeed be free and fair?they will indeed be free and fair?

39 46 15Jan 2008

Yes, it is implementing measures and there will be improvementNo, it is not sincere and there will not be improvementDK/NA


26

31

27

60

53

58

14

16

15

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Jul 2007

Oct 2007

Dec 2007

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