Article "Coffee - The Wine of Arabia" Coffee Market Report - September/October 2015
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45 44 coffee world coffee world coffee world a deep understanding of what differentiates one coffee from the other, you get involved and learn about it, otherwise just relax, enjoy your favorite cup of Joe or glass of wine and get fixed with your caffeine or alcohol dose. Coffee is not anymore just a daily ritual enjoyed solitarily for the energy boost, in our days is much more than that, it is more and more a social thing you like to enjoy and share with friends in a trendy „café” or during a pleasant after-dinner chat. Most people, whenever inviting friends over for dinner, have a mental shopping checklist: Nice food. Check! Nice wine. Check! Nice coffee. Check! In our days, coffee is getting to the point of being cool and sexy, even the Argentinean soccer player, Leo Messi has established his own coffee franchise in Spain, the „Café Messi”. Today coffee is a trendy topic in all social environments and we may hate to admit that, but much of this success is due to international coffee shops franchises as Starbucks, which started all this specialty and barista movement way before the specialty coffee niche finally woke up and organized themselves striving to get a broader and more representative segment of the coffee market, among others with the coffee versus wine analogy. It is precisely here where it is finding some resistance and challenges to overcome, as although many wine lovers will also be coffee lovers, people do not want to be lectured, they are afraid something that has been quite simple is getting more complex, pretentious, intimidating and will make enjoying it more difficult for them. In the world of specialty coffee, we often draw parallels with wine when trying to explain the differences in aroma, flavor, and quality that we know are there, but that have still to be discovered by many coffee drinkers. As agricultural products used to make beverages, coffee and wine grapes do have quite a few things in common. But the public awareness, perception and understanding of those similarities and how they can help consumers choose which coffee to buy, still have a long way to go. T he history of how coffee was cultivated, traded and spread across the world is a story of a world in rapid change. It is a history of religion, slavery, revolution, smuggling, war, poverty and politics, but also of creativity, development, inspiration, love and human relationships. ey say wine is far older than coffee, however coffee is a product of Mother Nature and, as such, is ageless. News of its existence reaches us from very far away. No one really knows when or how coffee was first discovered, but even before the seeds were roasted, ground and brewed, the fruit, leaves and seeds of the coffee tree were used for their invigorating properties. African herders and hunters would mix green beans with fat and spices, creating their own energy bars for the long periods of time spent away from their homes. e leaves of the tree and the skin of the fruit could be boiled to create an invigorating, caffeine rich infusion. In the 1400s, Sufis from the Arabian Peninsula in particular, acquired a taste for the tea made from coffee cherries, calling it „Quishr” and using it as a means to stay awake during nightly prayers. Coffee was fondly referred to as Arabian wine and knowledge of its stimulating effects quickly spread. rough its journey to Turkey, Egypt and North Africa, the use of the plant came to center on the infusion that could be made from its roasted and ground seeds. However, the coffee-wine analogy has been around only since the beginning of the new millennium, with passionate supporters and detractors, both sides having somewhat valid arguments. A LITTLE DEFINITION BEFORE WE CONTINUE: Analogy is a cognitive process of transferring information or meaning from a particular subject to another particular subject. In essence, analogies are a tool for teaching and learning, by definition, an analogy is different to the very thing you are using e wine industry has had far more success in educating its consumers about what its product is, explaining why it is special, why there are myriad aromas and flavors, why there are different levels of quality and why price differences may therefore be valid. e coffee industry is at least 20-30 years behind in this conversation with its customers. Coffee and wine are both from fruits, which are comparably small, sweet, and round and that are best harvested ripe. ere’s a season for harvest and processing for both. Both can also be identified by variety and origin and both use many of the same terms to describe sensory perception of these beverages. CULTIVATION AND TERROIR Both wine grapes and coffee are influenced by the particular „terroir” in which they are grown, where the altitude, the soil chemistry, the climate, the sun exposure, the rain at the proper time of development, but not while harvesting, are determinant on the final product. HARVESTING Both wine grapes and specialty coffee berries are handpicked at full maturity and carefully selected in order to achieve the best results when processed. Both of them, for more commercial grades and where the topography allows it, are mechanically harvested as well. THE PROCESSING Here is where things are getting somewhat different as grapes will be pressed and fermented in stainless steel tanks for few months, in the case of industrial wine and then will pass through a selection, to decide if the wine will be suitable for aging 6 to 18 month in oak barrels, otherwise will be bottled and introduced in the market. it to describe. An analogy does, of course, have to be relevant in a useful way, otherwise you could just use anything as an analogy. So, an analogy becomes an analogy not just through being different, but also through simultaneously transferring meaning. e worth of each analogy is open to debate, but the fact that the analogy is not a direct replication of the thing you are using it to describe is not a good argument against it. If it was, then analogies should be scrapped altogether. So, why are analogies called upon so often in specialty coffee? Well it’s the same old stuff of trying to look at something in a different way than it is commonly regarded. In this case, the use of analogy emphasizes the fact that specialty coffee requires an unfamiliar means of viewing an otherwise very familiar drink. I have been lucky enough to be involved, since my early 20s, in both wine and coffee industry and I have never changed profession ever since, now being 41 and I can fairly say I have aged and evolved as good wines usually do, therefore I think I can dare to give my advised opinion on this matter. Lately, I have read some articles of coffee and wine writers/ bloggers that do not approve and severely criticize the coffee-wine analogy, mostly because they are afraid some people within the coffee culture could become as snobby as sommeliers are. Well, let me bring you some news, we already have that category in the coffee industry as well, they are called coffee enthusiasts and baristas, different only by a hipster touch and, in my opinion, there is nothing wrong with being knowledgeable and passionate about what you like. is has nothing to do with the analogy being correct or less, because we are not comparing only the people involved in preparing, serving or consuming it for that matter, but rather the product itself, the fruit, the terroir, the harvesting, the sensorial evaluation and, hopefully the marketing of it. Now, regarding the knowledge and vocabulary involved, the approach is the same as for anything else, if you want to have Coffee „e Wine of Arabia”
Transcript
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a deep understanding of what differentiates one coffee from the other, you get involved and learn about it, otherwise just relax, enjoy your favorite cup of Joe or glass of wine and get fixed with your caffeine or alcohol dose. Coffee is not anymore just a daily ritual enjoyed solitarily for the energy boost, in our days is much more than that, it is more and more a social thing you like to enjoy and share with friends in a trendy „café” or during a pleasant after-dinner chat. Most people, whenever inviting friends over for dinner, have a mental shopping checklist: Nice food. Check! Nice wine. Check! Nice coffee. Check!
In our days, coffee is getting to the point of being cool and sexy, even the Argentinean soccer player, Leo Messi has established his own coffee franchise in Spain, the „Café Messi”. Today coffee is a trendy topic in all social environments and we may hate to admit that, but much of this success is due to international coffee shops franchises as Starbucks, which started all this specialty and barista movement way before the specialty coffee niche finally woke up and organized themselves striving to get a broader and more representative segment of the coffee market, among others with the coffee versus wine analogy. It is precisely here where it is finding some resistance and challenges to overcome, as although many wine lovers will also be coffee lovers, people do not want to be lectured, they are afraid something that has been quite simple is getting more complex, pretentious, intimidating and will make enjoying it more difficult for them.
In the world of specialty coffee, we often draw parallels with wine when trying to explain the differences in aroma, flavor, and quality that we know are there, but that have still to be discovered by many coffee drinkers. As agricultural products used to make beverages, coffee and wine grapes do have quite a few things in common. But the public awareness, perception and understanding of those similarities and how they can help consumers choose which coffee to buy, still have a long way to go.
The history of how coffee was cultivated, traded and spread across the world is a story of a world in rapid change. It is a history of religion, slavery, revolution,
smuggling, war, poverty and politics, but also of creativity, development, inspiration, love and human relationships.
They say wine is far older than coffee, however coffee is a product of Mother Nature and, as such, is ageless. News of its existence reaches us from very far away. No one really knows when or how coffee was first discovered, but even before the seeds were roasted, ground and brewed, the fruit, leaves and seeds of the coffee tree were used for their invigorating properties. African herders and hunters would mix green beans with fat and spices, creating their own energy bars for the long periods of time spent away from their homes. The leaves of the tree and the skin of the fruit could be boiled to create an invigorating, caffeine rich infusion. In the 1400s, Sufis from the Arabian Peninsula in particular, acquired a taste for the tea made from coffee cherries, calling it „Quishr” and using it as a means to stay awake during nightly prayers.
Coffee was fondly referred to as Arabian wine and knowledge of its stimulating effects quickly spread. Through its journey to Turkey, Egypt and North Africa, the use of the plant came to center on the infusion that could be made from its roasted and ground seeds.
However, the coffee-wine analogy has been around only since the beginning of the new millennium, with passionate supporters and detractors, both sides having somewhat valid arguments.
A little definition before we continue:
Analogy is a cognitive process of transferring information or meaning from a particular subject to another particular subject. In essence, analogies are a tool for teaching and learning, by definition, an analogy is different to the very thing you are using
The wine industry has had far more success in educating its consumers about what its product is, explaining why it is special, why there are myriad aromas and flavors, why there are different levels of quality and why price differences may therefore be valid. The coffee industry is at least 20-30 years behind in this conversation with its customers. Coffee and wine are both from fruits, which are comparably small, sweet, and round and that are best harvested ripe. There’s a season for harvest and processing for both. Both can also be identified by variety and origin and both use many of the same terms to describe sensory perception of these beverages.
cultivAtion And terroir
Both wine grapes and coffee are influenced by the particular „terroir” in which they are grown, where the altitude, the soil chemistry, the climate, the sun exposure, the rain at the proper time of development, but not while harvesting, are determinant on the final product.
HArvesting
Both wine grapes and specialty coffee berries are handpicked at full maturity and carefully selected in order to achieve the best results when processed. Both of them, for more commercial grades and where the topography allows it, are mechanically harvested as well.
tHe processing
Here is where things are getting somewhat different as grapes will be pressed and fermented in stainless steel tanks for few months, in the case of industrial wine and then will pass through a selection, to decide if the wine will be suitable for aging 6 to 18 month in oak barrels, otherwise will be bottled and introduced in the market.
it to describe. An analogy does, of course, have to be relevant in a useful way, otherwise you could just use anything as an analogy. So, an analogy becomes an analogy not just through being different, but also through simultaneously transferring meaning. The worth of each analogy is open to debate, but the fact that the analogy is not a direct replication of the thing you are using it to describe is not a good argument against it. If it was, then analogies should be scrapped altogether.
So, why are analogies called upon so often in specialty coffee? Well it’s the same old stuff of trying to look at something in a different way than it is commonly regarded. In this case, the use of analogy emphasizes the fact that specialty coffee requires an unfamiliar means of viewing an otherwise very familiar drink.
I have been lucky enough to be involved, since my early 20s, in both wine and coffee industry and I have never changed profession ever since, now being 41 and I can fairly say I have aged and evolved as good wines usually do, therefore I think I can dare to give my advised opinion on this matter.
Lately, I have read some articles of coffee and wine writers/bloggers that do not approve and severely criticize the coffee-wine analogy, mostly because they are afraid some people within the coffee culture could become as snobby as sommeliers are. Well, let me bring you some news, we already have that category in the coffee industry as well, they are called coffee enthusiasts and baristas, different only by a hipster touch and, in my opinion, there is nothing wrong with being knowledgeable and passionate about what you like. This has nothing to do with the analogy being correct or less, because we are not comparing only the people involved in preparing, serving or consuming it for that matter, but rather the product itself, the fruit, the terroir, the harvesting, the sensorial evaluation and, hopefully the marketing of it. Now, regarding the knowledge and vocabulary involved, the approach is the same as for anything else, if you want to have
Coffee „The Wine of Arabia”
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Of course, the process is somewhat different for white and red wines. However, that is not the topic of this article. Coffee instead can be processed basically in two ways, the first would be the natural one, where the coffee berry is sun dried and therefore having a longer exposure to the pulp and its sugars and ultimately after a month or so the cherry/husk will be mechanically removed. The second method is the wet method, where the coffee is pulped and, oppositely to wine grapes, the pulp will be discarded and the process will continue with the seeds, which we call the beans and can be fermented in vats with a bit of spring water for about 24 hours, in order to remove the mucilage, then washed and mechanically or sun dried. This method has a variation which is commonly referred as pulped natural and basically consists in pulping the coffee, but instead of fermenting it, the mucilage is left on the bean in different percentages and sun dried with it. This variation it will result in to what is known as Honey Coffee.
Oppositely to wine, which could eventually improve with age, normally coffee certainly does not and only taste fresh and interesting for a few months before taking on wooden, flat and dusty taints. Once roasted, the rate of decline is even faster, within weeks.
Up to this point, where the producer parts with his product, you could claim that wine and coffee follow a fairly similar path. But, while wine leaves the winery in a bottle, largely ready to be enjoyed, coffee still needs to go through several more stages before it can be drunk or even be called coffee the way most people enjoy it.
tHe vArieties & blending or „coupAge”
If you love Chardonnay, the coffee you ought to drink should be the Yemen Mocha, where you will find that Chardonnay’s apple and pear flavors, along with accents of lightly roasted, buttered nuts, are paralleled by the spicy, buttery flavors of these aromatic blends.
If you love Pinot Noir, the coffee you ought to drink should be Central American Arabicas. Red fruits and bright acidity are in play in many fine Pinots and the floral highlights and light chocolate notes in Costa Rican Caturras and the Panamanian Gesha coffees offer similar elegance and definition.
If you love Merlot, the coffee you ought to drink should be Central American Arabicas. The straightforward nature of these plush, fruity wines is matched by these crisp, citrusy coffees.
If you love Syrah, the coffee you ought to drink should be an Italian Roast Espresso Blend that has the dark, smoky richness, along with a compelling earthiness, that matches similar strengths in your favorite Syrah.
If you love Cabernet Sauvignon, the coffee you ought to drink should be the Indonesian Java Arabica. Cabernet, the quintessential steakhouse wine, has thick, chewy tannins. Dark-roasted coffees from Indonesia have the same syrupy depth, with flavors of bittersweet chocolate.
sommeliers And bAristAs
Now, consider the sommelier and the barista. We have in both cases as standard-bearer, a communicator and the last hand in the chain that links the product to the public. The wine sommelier is
Wine has been ahead of coffee in selling itself by variety for years, like Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Pinot Noir, Chardonnay, Tempranillo, Syrah, etc, but it’s becoming increasingly common to see coffee labeled as Bourbon, Pacamara, Geisha, or SL28-varieties that all carry intrinsic aromas and flavor qualities. Bourbons are soft and sweet; Pacamaras are often herbal and savory; Geishas are delicate and floral; SL28s are intensely aromatic, acidic, and fruity.
Just as „coupage” is done with wine, blending different varieties in well thought percentages by the winemaker, in order to achieve signature wines, roast masters do it for coffee blends as well where, for example, an espresso signature blend can have up to 18 different origins, grades species or varieties, in order to make it unique and difficult to replicate by competitors. Blending of coffees usually happens at the roasting stage and, as with blending wine, every coffee company will have its own philosophy and its own reasons for blending beans or keeping them separate, whether or not it chooses to reveal its thinking.
sensoriAl/orgAnoleptic evAluAtion
Roasters develop aroma and flavor, and they are the ones most often responsible for finding a way of communicating these to interested coffee drinkers. If you look at some of their aroma or flavor wheels, the words used to describe wine and coffee are often very similar. Here are some examples:
If you love dry Riesling, the coffee you ought to drink is the Ethiopian Yergacheffe, where cents of white flowers and citrusy, tangerine flavors are important to both the wines and the coffees.
charged with opening and serving the bottle effectively, while the barista needs to produce a finished cup. In the coffee world, the barista carries the heavy mantle of the entire chain. If he screws it up, we have potentially lost the customer. The sommelier must, however, know everything there is to know about the wine at hand. Consider the enormity of those differences. A barista is most likely to sell a customer on the basis of his skill to produce a cup and a sommelier is actually selling the wine.
One of the challenges facing the movement toward greater transparency and heightened interest in coffee as a gourmet product is finding a way to do it that does not alienate the curious consumer. As in any field that has to do with appreciation and taste, no one likes a know-it-all. We’ve all come across insufferable wine snobs and there are plenty of coffee snobs too, who take any opportunity to reject your drink of choice and proceed to lecture you about the superiority of their own chosen bean or brew.
Baristas, in particular, have a huge responsibility when it comes to communicating the story of coffee, explaining why you should pay more for quality, why you should explore origins, regions and varieties, and why you should buy and brew fresh beans. They are like coffee sommeliers, in that they should know all there is to know about a coffee, but they have the added task of having to brew and serve the coffee correctly -the final hurdle on the way from the grower to the consumer. Brewing coffee is often considered a menial job, but the skill required to treat great beans with the respect they deserve and thereby to translate the hard work of producers and roasters into the cup, is not to be taken lightly.
So, is coffee just like wine?!?
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Importator EDEN GEOCOM SRL. Mai multe detalii despre produsele Monin găsiți la numărul de telefon 0751 011 100.
These words are generally attached to some form of delightful discovery. And just like in the movie, there are two perceived winners when coffee gets compared to wine. Certainly, the speaker has won a small victory in his own mind. He has successfully classified specialty and can now proceed secure in the knowledge that he understands coffee. The other winner is the coffee person who is trying to make her point about quality or quality assessment, price points or some other lofty specialty goal. Her plight is instantly elevated to the culinary relevance of wine, the undisputed king of all beverages.
We cannot cling to the coattails of wine and expect coffee to be raised to its level of appreciation and understanding, since the ways in which it is produced and sold are so vastly different. Coffee has to create its own story, in order to entice, educate, and convert coffee drinkers, persuading and seducing them to move away from jars of instant coffee to fresh and well-made coffee, the kind that has been well grown and harvested, well processed and transported, well roasted and ground, well brewed and served.
At the heart of specialty coffee is a culinary endeavor; the focus is on the flavor in the cup and then considering all of the incredible variables that fed into the equation to make that drink a reality. The focus of specialty coffee delves much deeper into the area of provenance and terroir than traditional or commercial coffee. The wine analogy seems pretty good to me at the moment.
Once the wine analogy has been used to emphasize a provenance and flavor driven approach, it then becomes less useful. At this
point, we need to let other analogies take over. It is now useful to use the chain metaphor. Looking at the coffee creation as a chain of people, where natural factors and equipment are responsible for the coffee cup quality and identity. If something before your part of the chain goes wrong or is just different, then what you can do with the coffee is also different, but your part of the chain remains a variable, one with a huge bearing on the coffee. Every step, right up until the drink is being consumed, has had an impact. Every link in the chain matters and it’s important to recognize the impact of each link.
The very fact that the discussion about specialty coffee often races through several analogies in quick succession says a lot about the special and complex product that this is. The struggle to explain its specifics accurately without the employment of analogies says a lot about coffee’s uniqueness, which in turn signals how rewarding not only the journey, but also the conversation can be.
On a humorous note, in favor of those who are against the coffee-wine analogy and focus on the differences, I observed a great difference in side-effects of consuming both beverages, because although I love wine, coffee has helped me far more in writing this article than wine did, for obvious reasons.
În timpul acestei veri, iubitorii de cafea au fost invitaţi de Gaggia Milano la concurs. Spuneam atunci că aşteptăm cele mai frumoase poveşti cu aromă de cafea pe care le-aţi trăit şi că cel ce ne va inspira cel mai tare să visăm va fi răsplătit cu un espressor Gaggia Classic.
Au trecut şi zilele însorite, concursul „Pauză de cafea cu Gaggia Milano” s-a încheiat, ne-am pus pe citit, iar la început de septembrie am ales câştigătorul.
Anunţăm cu drag ca acesta este Bogdan Taut, un scriitor iscusit şi cafegiu de Bucureşti. Rândurile scrisorii lui ne-au făcut să zâmbim, iar el va fi încântat de acum încolo, în fiecare dimineaţă, de gustul unei cafele perfecte preparată la espressorul ce îmbină tradiţia şi designul atemporal.
Mulţumim tuturor participanţilor şi sponsorului nostru, Gaggia Milano, ce ne-a oferit posibilitatea de a bucura un cititor şi vă aşteptam alături de noi şi la următoarele provocări aromate!
Până data viitoare, enjoy every coffee break!
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The weather conditions over the main Brazilian coffee growing regions have experienced good rains, which as a result translated in a very good blossoming for the 2016/17 crop year, that could easily overcome the dry weather experienced during the last days of September, due to a good water retention by the soil and the prognostic of more rains to come during the next period. It is forecasted that the next year Brazil will have a bumper crop that would increase the offer, add more pressure over the market and ultimately over the prices.
In Colombia continues the spectacular crop recovery after the 2010 coffee renovation program, that is increasing while the bushes are maturing in age, despite the dry weather experienced in the past few months, caused by the effects of „El Niño” climatic phenomenon. Roberto Velez, the new General Manager of the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation, estimates that the countries production will overpass the previous forecast of 13.2 million bags and could now reach the new record of 13.7 million bags for the coming crop, which together with the Peruvian recovery for the 2016 crop will add even more pressure over the prices of Arabica coffee, specially over the washed milds, like the ones produced by the Central American countries. Central America is expecting as well a significantly increased crop, compared to the past years, and harvest has already started in most of the isthmus coffee regions, which have recovered from the devastations caused by the „Roya” fungus during the 2013/14 crops.
During the entire Brazilian 2015/16 coffee harvest, we have been experiencing a highly speculative and volatile market with forecasts between trading houses and Brazilian official institutions, that differed in almost 10 million bags, creating uncertainty and caution on the buyers side which have set a hold on the market waiting for the final numbers, limiting the purchases to cover minimum immediate needs.
The Brazilian crop for this year was quite large and can easily be said that it reached at least 50 million bags, if not more, despite the conservative forecasts of the Brazilian National Statistics Institute that has estimated the crop to reach only 43.7 million bags. Although the recent market falls, during the first half of September, are due more to the highest depreciation of the Brazilian currency in the last 13 years, which generally encourages the producers to sell in order to compensate the low coffee market prices with the higher acquisitive power that gives them the USD when exchanged to Brazilian Reals. However this time around the producers have been very disciplined and have sold only the strictly necessary to cover their cash needs, therefore, the low price have been caused rather by the funds speculative sells than by the producers sells. Another important factor that weighed heavily on the low prices is that the coffee demand has been quite scarce because the vast majority of the big roasters are well covered in to the next year, with quite large stocks.
Condiţiile meteo pentru principalele regiuni care cultivă cafea sunt de bun augur în sensul că ploile abundente au avut ca rezultat o prolifică înflorire a arbuştilor de cafea, benefică pentru recolta 2016-2017, ceea ce ar putea, cu uşurinţă, să compenseze vremea uscată din ultima parte a lui septembrie şi aceasta datorită bunei retenţii de apă a solului. De asemenea, prognozele meteo anunţă o perioadă abundentă în ploi pentru viitorul apropiat. Se preconizează că Brazilia va avea anul viitor o recoltă foarte bogată, ceea ce va mări oferta, dar va adăuga şi mai multă presiune pe piaţă şi, implicit, asupra preţurilor.
Pe de altă parte, în Columbia, în urma programului de recultivare a plantaţiilor de cafea, din 2010, continuă o revenire spectaculoasă a recoltelor, cu o creştere a maturităţii productive în ciuda vremii uscate a ultimelor luni cauzată, la rândul ei, de fenomenul climatic „El Niño”. Directorul general al Federaţiei Coulombiene a Crescătorilor de Cafea, Roberto Velez estimează că producţia naţională de cafea va depăşi prognoza de 13,2 milioane saci şi că va atinge un nou record de 13,7 milioane la următoarea recoltă. Ceea ce, împreună cu recuperarea peruviană a recoltei din 2016 va adăuga şi mai mult la presiunea asupra preţurilor cafelei Arabica, în special asupra soiurilor de washed milds, cum ar fi cele produse de ţările central-americane.
America Centrală se aşteaptă, de asemenea, la rezultate semnificativ mai bune comparativ cu anii trecuţi, recolta a început deja în majoritatea regiunilor ce abia şi-au revenit de pe urma efectelor devastatoare ale infestării cu „Roya”, o ciupercă ce a distrus mare parte dintre recoltele anilor 2013-2014.
Am fost martorii unei pieţe extrem de volatile şi de speculative pe întreaga perioadă de recoltă braziliană 2015/2016. Prognozele caselor de tranzacţionare şi cele ale instituţiilor oficiale braziliene au avut divergenţe de aproape 10 milioane de saci, fapt ce a produs multă nesiguranţă şi implicit prudență în rândul cumpărătorilor care s-au văzut nevoiţi să aştepte cifrele finale, limitând achiziţiile la strictul necesar.
Recolta braziliană a acestui an a fost destul de mare şi, cu siguranţă, putem spune că a ajuns la 50 de milioane de saci sau chiar mai mult de atât în ciuda prognozelor conservative ale instituţiilor oficiale braziliene care au estimat recolta la doar 43,7 milioane de saci. Cu toate acestea, căderea recentă a pieţei, din prima jumătate a lui septembrie, se datorează, mai degrabă, celei mai mari deprecieri a monedei naţionale din ultimii 13 ani, deşi, în general, aceasta încurajează producătorii să vândă tocmai pentru a compensa preţurile mici ale pieţei de cafea cu puterea mai mare de achiziţie a dolarului american atunci când e schimbat în reali brazilieni. Având în vedere această stare de fapt, este de notat faptul că producătorii au fost foarte disciplinaţi şi au vândut doar strictul necesar pentru a-şi acoperi nevoile minime de lichidităţi astfel că preţurile mici au fost, mai degrabă, cauzate de vânzările fondurilor speculative decât de vânzările producătorilor. Un alt factor important, care a cântărit greu în scăderea preţurilor, este acela că cererea de cafea a fost destul de slabă deoarece vasta majoritate a marilor prăjitori de cafea sunt asiguraţi cu stocuri mari pentru anul ce vine.
Coffee Market Report for 2015/16
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Unfortunately the coffee growers from Guatemala and El Salvador are being twice affected by the bumping crops and low prices in the NY ICE futures market, because oppositely to their Central American neighbors or Colombia and Brazil, their currency is directly linked to the USD, therefore has not experience any depreciation against the north American currency, making the exports unprofitable and the income received enough only to hardly cover the plantations maintaining expenses, which is affecting the capacity to recover from the „Roya” infections. On the other hand Honduras is leading the coffee production in Central America, becoming the coffee giant in the region with an estimated crop of about 5.9 million bags.
For the moment in Asia „El Niño” has not caused any substantial damage over the coffee regions, however we expect a lot of speculations that will keep feeding the volatility in the market.
Vietnam is starting this year harvest during mid-October, which we expect to be around 30 million bags, which, „for a change”, will add as well pressure on the market, however for the time being the producers are behaving very disciplined in holding their coffee stocks nevertheless more we are approaching to November more they feel the pressure to sell in order to make space in the warehouses for the new coming crop and obtain cash for maintaining their operations and farms.
India is experiencing a production increase of 12% but on the other hand the exports decrease in about 2% due to high price resistance in the internal market.
Taking under consideration all the above, especially the increase in the global coffee production compared to the previous year, and that both the European Coffee Federation and the New York Green Coffee Association are reporting a substantial increase in the coffee stocks held in European (12 million bags) and US main ports warehouses, we could easily say that we will have an excellent year crop wise but with low prices, that for Arabica coffee are expected to range between USD 1.10 to 1.60 per pound at the NY ICE market and for Robusta between USD 1.500 to 1.700 per Metric Ton at the London Liffe market.
My advice to importers and roasters for this year is that they can buy without any retentions on differential basis, with fixing on buyer’s call and order the same during the low peaks or, better even, set your target price and order fixing on „good till canceled” basis, on the other hand be cautious on „outright” (fixed price) basis purchases both origin and spot and if you definitely have to buy under this conditions cover only the minimum necessary for your immediate roasting needs.
i wish you a prosperous and successful end of 2015!
specialist with over 20 years experience in the international green coffee trade
Din nefericire, însă, crescătorii de cafea din Guatemala şi El Salvador sunt de două ori afectaţi de recoltele voluminoase şi de preţurile mici ale pieţei NY ICE deoarece, spre deosebire de Columbia şi Brazilia şi de vecinii central-americani, moneda lor este strict legată de cea nord-americană, astfel că nu a suferit deprecieri şi implicit exporturile au devenit neprofitabile în timp ce veniturile acoperă cu greu cheltuielile de mentenanţă ale plantaţiilor ceea ce, fireşte, face şi mai grea recuperarea după dezastrul produs de Roya.
În schimb, liderul producţiei de cafea din America Centrală este Honduras care a devenit un „gigant” al cafelei cu o recoltă estimată de aproape 5,9 milioane de saci.
Deocamdată, în Asia, „El Niño” nu a cauzat distrugeri substanţiale în regiunile ce cultivă cafea. Cu toate acestea, ne aşteptăm la diverse speculaţii ce vor menţine volatilitatea pieţei.
Vietnam începe recolta anul acesta la mijlocul lui octombrie cu o estimare de 30 de milioane de saci, ceea ce va adăuga ceva presiune pe piaţă dar, deocamdată, producătorii sunt foarte „cuminţi” şi păstrează stocurile.
Totuşi, cu cât ne apropiem de luna noiembrie, cu atât aceştia vor simţi presiunea să vândă pentru a face loc în depozite noilor recolte şi pentru a genera venituri care să acopere cheltuielile necesare funcţionării fermelor.
India se bucură de o creştere a producţiei cu 12 procente dar, pe de altă parte exporturile scad cu aproape 2 procente datorită rezistenţei preţurilor mari ale pieţei interne.
Dacă luăm în considerare toate cele de mai sus, în special creşterea producţiei de cafea la nivel global comparativ cu anii precedenţi, de asemenea faptul că şi Federaţia Europeană a Cafelei şi Asociaţia Cafelei Verzi de la New York raportează creşteri substanţiale ale stocurilor deţinute de principalele depozite europene şi nord-americane, am putea să declarăm, cu uşurinţă, că vom avea un an excelent în ceea ce priveşte recoltele, dar ne vom confrunta şi cu preţuri mici. O altă estimare o putem face cu referire la cafeaua Arabica al cărei preţ va merge între 1,10 şi 1,60 USD pentru 1 pound (0,453 kg), pe piaţa NY ICE şi pentru Robusta estimarea ar fi undeva între 1500 şi 1700 USD pe tonă în piaţa controlată de London Liffe.
Sfatul meu pentru importatori şi pentru prăjitorii de cafea este de a cumpăra fără reţineri, pe preţ diferenţial, fixând preţul pe licitaţia cumpărătorului şi menţinând fixările la vârfurile joase sau, şi mai bine, să fixeze un preţ target şi să comande fixarea fermă la atingerea nivelului dorit. Pe de altă parte, să fie precauţi cu achiziţiile la preţ fix atât în ceea ce priveşte achiziţiile direct din origine, cât şi pe cele din stocuri locale (spot) şi, în cazul în care sunt nevoiţi să cumpere în aceste condiţii, să acopere doar strictul necesar.
vă doresc un sfârşit de an prosper şi plin de succes!
