1. FINAL TRANSCRIPT ARM - ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual
Harbour Auto Conference Event Date/Time: Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM ET
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2. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor,
Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS
Jay Craig ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller Chris Snodgrass
ArvinMeritor - VP, Manufacturing & Supply Chain Management
CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS Eric Selle JPMorgan - Analyst Himanshu
Patel JPMorgan - Analyst Stephanie Renegar JPMorgan - Analyst
PRESENTATION Eric Selle - JPMorgan - Analyst If everybody could
grab their seats, we're going to get started. Next presenters are
from ArvinMeritor. Today we have Jay Craig, who is the Senior VP
and Controller. We also have Chris Snodgrass, VP of Manufacturing
and Supply Chain Management. So please welcome ArvinMeritor. Jay
Craig - ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller Thanks, Eric. I'm Jay Craig,
Senior VP and Controller of ArvinMeritor. I joined ArvinMeritor
about a year ago, from GMAC. As you probably know, most of our
senior management team is relatively new within the last year or
so. I'm joined here by Chris Snodgrass, who joined us recently,
about three months ago, and is Vice President of Manufacturing and
Supply Chain for our Commercial Vehicle operation. My
responsibilities include global accounting, financial analysis, SOX
compliance, capital appropriations, and also the implementation of
shared services globally, which encompasses consolidating our HR
activities, our purchasing activities, and accounting activities,
globally. And also I also lead the Overhead team and Aftermarket
team in our Performance Plus restructuring program that we embarked
upon in November, and I also lead the program office for that
activity, as well. Just the legal wording here. Any forward-looking
statements we provide today are subject to the risks detailed here.
First, I just want to bring people up to a common level of
understanding. We reported our third fiscal year quarter of results
last Monday. We earned $0.25 per share before special items in the
quarter. We also tightened our guidance for the full year to the
upper end of that range previously provided. The major milestone we
had this quarter, we completed the closing of our sale of our
Emissions Technology business and I'll talk about -- more on that
later. Last week, we also reported that our Performance Plus profit
improvement program is on track to achieve $75 million of increased
earnings for next year and $150 million of increased earnings for
2009 and I'd like to reconfirm that again today.
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3. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor,
Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference This slide shows the
earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for
our business units. This is the metric we hold ourselves
accountable to and what our incentive compensation programs are
tied to internally, along with free cash flow. Our Light Vehicle
Systems business continued to see margin expansion, compared to
last year, reflecting the benefits of our prior restructuring,
other cost reductions and also we're seeing an improved mix now
that we've disposed of our Emissions Technology business. Several
of our higher-margin businesses are growing quite rapidly and
changing the mix of our remaining Light Vehicle business very
positively. Our Commercial Vehicle Systems business faced its
greatest challenge. The Class 8 production in North America fell by
54% for this fiscal quarter as compared to last year. Chris will
discuss our forecast for industry volumes in more detail in his
presentation. However, we are coming through that downturn very
well so far. Our margins in our Commercial Vehicle business are
only down 1.5% year-over-year. This is a dramatic improvement over
the last downturn we experienced in 2001. The reasons for that are
our continued growth of our Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket
business, our Specialty business and also the execution of our
layered capacity model with our breakeven point being somewhat
lower than it was in the previous downturn. What I'd like to do for
the remainder of the presentation is just do some cleanup with some
commonly asked questions that came out of our earnings call last
Monday. The most common request so far is color on our free cash
flow performance for the quarter. On this chart, I presented a
slightly different cut of free cash flow than we showed last week.
Discontinued operations accounted for cash outflow of $114 million,
most of which was related to the sale of ET. This reflected
deterioration in the business, which I'll cover in more detail on a
couple more slides. Also, $40 million to $60 million that was
invested in working capital that it will be refunded to us later
this year as a post-closing adjustment. Next, we made some working
capital investments in some of the growth areas of our continuing
operations, particularly our Commercial Vehicle operations in
Europe. We also had $26 million of adverse collections performance,
net of the receivables we securitized off balance sheet. This,
again, was primarily in Europe in our Commercial Vehicle operation.
The market there has exploded. Unfortunately, our receivables
collections are still embedded within our plants operations in
Europe. That's part of the shared services initiatives where we're
pulling that out of the hands of our plants, and they lost some
focus on that to accommodate the growth in that market. We've
already consolidated those collection activities in North America
and have seen substantial improved collections performance. We'll
be moving onto Europe in the fourth quarter of this year and the
first quarter of next year, consolidating those activities and
expect to perform much more strongly than we have in the past. If
you look at the change in the receivables on the balance sheet, you
will get a number greater than $78 million. That's because the
EMCON receivables -- which is the legal name of the entity that
purchased our Emissions Technology business -- the receivable
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reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the
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4. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor,
Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference from them is not
classified as a trade receivable. And the balances have grown
because of the stronger currencies in Europe and South America. In
the quarter, we also contributed an additional $14 million to our
pension and retiree plans, above what was expensed. For the year,
this number has been $83 million, and use of cash over the amount
of expense. This decrease obviously does take care of a future
problem we were facing, especially several years ago. At this
point, we are over 90% funded and we expect for the foreseeable
future we'll have no additional funding requirements beyond what's
expensed in the income statement. So total free cash for the cash
outflow for the quarter was $156 million. We lowered our full-year
guidance in this area to a negative $50 million to $100 million.
This slide just illustrates why working capital investments were
required in the shift in our regional mix. In our second fiscal
quarter, 49% of our sales were outside North America. In the third
quarter, this jumped to 53%, as we saw the downturn in the Class 8
Commercial Vehicle market and the expansion in Europe. Receivable
terms in North America are typically -- outside North America --
are typically 30 to 45 days longer. Unfortunately, our payables
terms aren't matching those extended terms from customers. We have
a task force in place now to work through our vendor relationships
and get the terms more evenly matched. Now what I'd like to talk
about is just the deterioration in our ET business. Two things that
caused us to invest more working capital within ET than we
expected. First, the performance of the Emissions Technology
business deteriorated in the months before closing. It started
generating significant negative operating cash flow. This was
exacerbated by the fact that the transaction closed a few weeks
later than we initially anticipated. And, secondly, the
deterioration in the business made it more difficult to reach
closing in the transaction. So we did contribute more working
capital at the closing. So we're very pleased with the deal. As you
can see form this chart, the trailing 12-months EBITDA multiple was
7.4, and if we included the performance from May, it would have
been even higher. So we're, again, very pleased to have closed the
transaction and happy to have that behind us. Another question that
was asked is what was the source of our income tax benefit for the
fourth quarter. We have lowered the range of our expected tax
provision from 8% to 12% to between 0% and minus 4%. This implies a
significant tax benefit for our fiscal fourth quarter. About $7
million of that benefit relates to resolving tax contingencies as
we close out prior-year audits with a couple jurisdictions outside
the United States. Another $4 million relates to a change in tax
law in one of the states in which we do business. That tax law
change occurred in July, so it was outside of our fiscal quarter.
So last issue I'd address, we had several questions regarding our
Performance Plus program and when would we be disclosing more
detail as far as the initiatives that have been implemented. Part
of the Performance Plus program involves verification of the
initiatives by the finance staff that are not directly involved in
the program. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 3 2007 Thomson
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may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means
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5. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor,
Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference We have many
initiatives, literally in excess of 100, that have been implemented
and we are seeing the savings. But, at this point, I'm having the
finance staff go back and reconfirm that those are not one-time and
that they're also rolling into our fiscal year '08 planning. So we
expect to update people in our November meeting and actually roster
those ideas at that point and show the initiatives that have been
implemented, just to make certain that they're captured in our '08
business plan, so we will isolate that impact at that time. At this
point, I would like to turn it over to Chris, and then I'll
participate in answering the questions after he's through. Chris
Snodgrass - ArvinMeritor - VP, Manufacturing & Supply Chain
Management Okay, thanks, Jay. So now it's the manufacturing side.
Actually, Chip and Carsten asked me to come and speak. I guess it's
not so normal to have manufacturing guys at these things. Maybe it
is. I see only one other one on the agenda, and that's Terry Gohl
from Visteon, but first I'd like to tell you a little bit about
myself. I'm also new to ArvinMeritor, as Jay explained. I've been
here since June. Part of the new team. I was born and raised in
Portland, Oregon, and I actually began, as I was in the university
going to school in Portland, I joined the commercial vehicles
industry, actually with Freightliner, so that was 15 years ago.
Since then, I've worked in four different countries, eight
different locations and I worked in various positions in supply
chain management, at production management, et cetera. And one of
the most interesting things I guess, for you today, about me, was
that I was actually involved in the Freightliner turnaround back in
the 2000, 2001 timeframe with Rainer Schmuckle and those guys. So a
lot of what you hear from the finance guys, talking about
Performance Plus and the initiatives, whether it's overhead,
whether it's footprint, whether it's the Lean implementation -- I
was involved in all that at the Freightliner side, so I spent about
18 months of my life in that regard. After about 11 years at
Freightliner, I actually moved to Germany and took a position with
Mercedes on the truck side. I was responsible for supply chain
management at Worth, which is the largest truck plant, actually in
the world, in southern Germany. And after I got back from Germany,
I actually took a position as the Director of Operations for
Detroit Diesel, which is a big engine manufacturing plant here in
Detroit, actually in Redford. And shortly thereafter I was asked to
take care of all North American operations for engine production,
both heavy duty and medium duty. So that's a little bit about me,
and then back on June 1st is when I actually joined ArvinMeritor.
So let's get started here. On this first slide here Jay referenced,
this is quarter three, which is actually a second calendar quarter.
It was a better result than our original expectations of 28,000
units. We ended up with 42,000 units, and we updated that change in
our full-year forecast, although other periods remain unchanged.
Another key point, and I think Jay referenced it, is that the CVS
margins were down only 1.5 points when Class 8 sales were down 54%
from the prior year. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 4 2007 Thomson
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6. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor,
Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference Some OEMs and dealers
are expressing growing confidence that we'll come out of this
trough and begin to return to normal levels by the first calendar
quarter of 2008, and that's good news. Because we've taken the time
in 2007 with the down market to actually implement some very key
initiatives at ArvinMeritor, and one of those is the ArvinMeritor
Production System, which I'll talk about more as we go forward.
2008 has been characterized -- I've read some of the editorials
from these type of conferences, and I guess one of the interesting
things for me is that ArvinMeritor has been characterized somewhat
as a Goldilocks story. That we're the best whenever things are not
too hot and not too cold, which is very representative in 2008.
What I would like to do in my tenure here is to change that
mentality and actually get to a point where we're managing the
cycles of the industry and not letting the cycles of the industry
manage us. So I'm going to talk a little bit about how we do that.
There's basically four points I'm going go talk through today, one
of which is the ArvinMeritor Production System, which is Lean
Manufacturing. The second is investments in core processes. The
third is footprint optimization and timing and I'll talk a little
bit about some new investments that we have. So looking at the
history regarding 2005, 2006, prebuy, ArvinMeritor did not convert
to what I would call peak margins, and we've recently developed a
strategy to keep the value of industry sales by preparing our
manufacturing platform in a much smarter way. And this slide shows
some of the things that we're doing to do that. Part of managing
cycles means optimizing your production system methodology, your
managing footprint and your global managing presence. And I'll
spend a fair bit of time talking about the production system, and
management of cycles also means investing in core processes, at the
same time as we restructure our manufacturing footprint to prepare
us to succeed and prosper in the next upturn, coming in 2009. And,
lastly, I'll talk about how we're going to grow a little bit in
India and in China. So, as a real manufacturing guy, I know the
importance of a Lean Production System. This Lean Production System
was developed over the last six months at ArvinMeritor and we
actually benchmarked existing ArvinMeritor continuous improvement
programs across CVS and LVS and then consolidated them into an
improved system. And we did that internally, but we also used some
Lean consulting resources to help us. And the result is really a
version of the Toyota Production System which is tailored to the
unique requirements of our business, which includes some key
differences in terms of customer-driven design specifications,
higher fluctuation and market demand, high product variability and
complexity, diverse manufacturing platforms and really a
traditional manufacturing culture. So, as expected, we've seen a
step change in productivity in the plants where we have already
rolled this out. And if you look on the right-hand side of the
screen, that is our wave one of our rollout. These are some of the
key fundamentals that we're actually rolling out at various plants.
And if you go through them just quickly, really a high focus on
Visual Management and Performance Metric Boards, Key Process
Indicators, so KPIs. These are the metrics that really drive the
business, 5S, Eight Wastes. We're really using a lot Value Stream
Mapping to go through each one of our processes and look at where
we see waste and how we can improve it. www.streetevents.com
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7. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor,
Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference The first time through,
which is also known as first pass yield, improving our quality in
our first time through, lowering our rework, Kaizen and TPM
workshops are being initiated rampantly across all of our
manufacturing locations and we're really taking a hard look at
total productive maintenance, which is a holistic system for
managing the machines within the facilities. Let me take a step
back and talk about the production system holistically, actually.
Lean Manufacturing principles are really just words, if you don't
align them to your operating systems, your management systems and
the mindsets, behaviors and capabilities of your people. So if you
take a look, we're actually integrating all three of those, looking
very, very closely at our material flows, information flows,
quality systems, maintenance systems and manpower systems. And I
don't want to give you the impression that ArvinMeritor has been
asleep the last few years. They haven't. We've done a lot of things
in the last few years to improve the business, but now we're
actually taking all of those variables and bringing them together
into one, holistic system. At a very, very high level, our system
really focuses on five key levers, and that's safety, quality,
delivery, cost, and people. And the subsystems underneath those key
principles create a path to these outcomes, as well as the
accountability that is required to achieve, measure and sustain
improvement. Supporting the subsystems are a collection of tools
that help people do their jobs with excellence, and this is nothing
new to the industry. If you look at Toyota, if you look at GM, if
you look at Ford, if you look at DaimlerChrysler, these are very
similar systems to what they have implemented at their facilities
as well . So let's look at some of the early results in the first
two months of implementation at our two largest plants. These were
bottleneck operations in Europe, where we are challenged to keep up
with the high-volume requirements to our customers. This is an
environment where if we lose one unit of production, it can cause
us to add labor, use air freight, or incur penalty charges with our
customers. In the production of housings at this particular plant,
we archived a 15% increase in daily production simply through
launching those 10 principles I referenced in the first wave of APS
rollout. At another plant, we were able to increase gear machining
throughput by over 35%. Keep in mind, this is a very short
timeframe. We came in, we implemented just those first 10
principles and we found this step effect to happen. So the
potential out there is enormous. This type of efficiency gain will
ensure higher throughput to meet the European demand and to move
our margins in the direction of becoming more acceptable in Europe.
We've also detailed a rollout plan, which will focus on all of our
largest facilities, and over the course of the next few years,
we'll have it rolled out to every facility in Asia-Pacific, in
NAFTA, as well as in Europe. So in addition to improving all
aspects of our manufacturing platforms, according to Lean
principles, we also continue to define our core internal processes
and continue to approve additional capital. By replacing and
revitalizing our core process machines, we also become more
efficiency and more cost effective. This is an interesting chart,
and it's kind of an eye chart, I know, but I'll try and explain it.
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8. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor,
Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference Above is really a
high-level look at the results and an evolution of the layered
capacity model implemented ahead of the last pre-buy, so we're
talking about 2005, 2006 timeframe. In that model, we capacitized
our plants to produce components for a Class 8 industry size of
about 250,000 to 280,000, and then we did final assembly for all
customer needs. Above these levels, we resorted to outside sources
for layered capacity. And this external layered capacity was
available to us, but at very high premiums, and it also resulted,
obviously, in very high variable cost. This strategy allowed us to
under-invest, but prevented us from realizing peak margins. Layered
capacity must still play a part, but we're doing it smarter this
time around. We're identifying those processes that we consider
core to our success and investing in them, both in terms of
capacity and capability, with some of the latest technology, and
this will help us to achieve higher margins in 2008 and beyond. One
important point is that we will partly offset the cost of these
investments by ceasing investment on non-core processes and
outsourcing them. So what makes a process core? It's a process that
is a high value add and high leverage to quality and capability.
You see one of those examples on the screen up here. The gear set
is a key element of an axle. It transfers power from the drive line
to the pinion gear, then transfers power through to the ring gear
to the axle shafts that ultimately powers the wheel ends. It's very
important to the capability and durability of the axle.
Fortunately, it is a process that we happen to be pretty good at.
And I know that Carsten, in prior conferences, has already
described our proprietary near-net pinion forging capability, which
is a unique competitive advantage at ArvinMeritor. This is a core
process that we want to hold internal, and our Board of Directors
has recently approved a $25 million investment to continue
investing in this core, core process. Another important initiative
that will help us prepare for rising volumes in the future is our
plant restructuring initiative. On May 1st, we announced a
footprint optimization plan that will result in the closure of 13
plants, both LVS and CVS, in North America and in Western Europe.
Including other administrative and engineering actions, we project
that this plan will require restructuring cash of about $280
million and will result in annual benefits of $130 million to $140
million by the time we finish. And this is not like the last
restructuring, which resulted in 12 plant closures. That
restructuring was largely about reducing capacity. This time,
especially in CVS, on the Commercial Vehicle side, reducing
capacity is not a priority and we are simply optimizing our
footprint to ensure that we remain competitive going forward. This
footprint optimization plan has been designed to improve our
efficiency and our cost. In some cases, that means streamlining
material flow among our plants by moving processes among them. In
some cases, it means consolidating smaller operations, such as our
St. Thomas plant into other plants with better scale. I made the
announcement a week, or two weeks, ago that we would close the St.
Thomas facility, and you'll see more of those announcements coming
in the future. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 7 2007 Thomson
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may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means
without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.
9. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor,
Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference In some cases, it means
consolidating smaller operations, just like that plant, into
operations that can actually benefit from having a smaller
operation internal to it. So you really leverage yourself with the
scale of the facility. And in other cases it means simply shifting
production to lower-cost sites. As part of this effort, we will add
capacity in Mexico and within specific existing sites. And speaking
of Mexico, it's my pleasure today to announce that we will put a
new CVS plant in Northern Mexico. This new facility will be around
100,000 to 250,000 square feet and will open in time to support the
peak periods of the 2009 pre-buy. So those are some of the things
we are doing to prepare for the next upturn in North America, as
well as to support the continuing growth in Europe. At the same
time, we are finding, great opportunities to expand our business in
Asia. Earlier this year, we opened a new trailer axle plant in
Wuxi, China, and we also have an off-highway axle plant in China
that has seen strong growth. We will continue to act
opportunistically to capitalize on growth opportunities we see in
China and the whole Far East region. Our axle JV in India is
another great example of the growth opportunities we are seeing in
the Indian domestic market. We own 35% of the JV, Automotive Axles
Limited, Bharat Forge owns 35%, and the remaining 30% is traded on
the Indian Stock Exchange. AAL has enjoy strong sales growth and is
solidly profitable. We are able to capitalize on our long presence
as a well-known manufacturer since the early '80s, and we have
strong relationships with some of the largest and fastest-growing
truck manufacturers as a result. Because of the rapid growth they
have seen and expect over the next few years, our customers have
asked us to expand our capacity. We are making this investment
because we share their optimism about the local market and the
future prospects of these OEMs. We are fortunate to be in a solid
financial position which allows us to make these type of
investments and to accelerate our future growth. So thank you again
for your attention. Today, you have seen, again, many of the bold
initiatives that will position ArvinMeritor to both increase
margins while responding to the upcoming volume growth around the
world. The management of cycles will become more and more critical
as we move forward. Implementation of the ArvinMeritor Production
System, investment in core processes and optimization of our
manufacturing footprint will continue to drive our actions over the
next two to five years. So, now Jay and I will field any questions
that you have. I'd like to at this time invite -- I'm sorry if I
mispronounce this, but Himanshu Patel from JPMorgan up to the stage
to facilitate the questions. Thank you. QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
Himanshu Patel - JPMorgan - Analyst We've only got 10 minutes for
Q&A, so fire away. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 8 2007
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10. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM -
ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference Eric
Selle - JPMorgan - Analyst There you go. It's Eric Selle from
JPMorgan. Jay, I was just going to ask you if you could update us
on your litigation with the retiree healthcare? Where does that
stand in the courts, and are there alternatives you guys are
seeking on resolving that? Jay Craig - ArvinMeritor - SVP,
Controller Well, that's really only one of -- we have two separate
unions, the USW, who has not filed suit, and then I think you're
referring to the UAW case. That's moved on to the appeals court and
it's not yet been heard. Obviously, we're looking at a lot of the
VEBA trust transactions being executed right now and are evaluating
whether we may enter negotiations with the UAW to enter a similar
arrangement. Eric Selle - JPMorgan - Analyst And as you look at
your recently built liquidity, how would you prioritize your use of
that liquidity between a VEBA trust, potential to make an
acquisition, tuck-in acquisitions, buying back some of your JVs,
shareholder-friendly activities. Amongst those three, how would you
stack those over the next couple of years? Jay Craig - ArvinMeritor
- SVP, Controller Obviously the ones that would drive the highest
returns, so on the VEBA trust issue, depending on the projected
discount we could receive from the liability we currently have on
our balance sheet, we would look at that evaluation as compared to
some of the other acquisition opportunities we're looking at
currently and some of the investments similar to what Chris just
discussed. Stephanie Renegar - JPMorgan - Analyst This is Stephanie
Renegar from JPMorgan. We've concentrated a lot on the Commercial
Vehicle side. I guess just wanting to know a little bit more about
your outlook for Light Vehicle Systems, what products and ones you
feel like are most core and whether or not you're evaluating that
business going forward? Jay Craig - ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller
Well, I assume what you're referring to as far as evaluating is
just evaluating whether that whole routine be retained as part of
ArvinMeritor. Obviously, we look at all the portfolio of our
businesses constantly to try to maximize shareholder value. We have
no current intentions of changing the direction of ArvinMeritor. As
far as the products, as I mentioned in some of my comments, what
we've seen with the disposal of our Emission Technology business is
some of our higher profitability products are now growing at a rate
that you'll see the margins continue to increase, even beyond what
we're seeing currently from the previous restructuring actions. And
those businesses are like our Wheels operations and some of our
Doors operations. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 9 2007 Thomson
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11. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM -
ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference We just
recently announced our joint venture with Chery Motors in China,
around ride control, and we've made significant investments in
chassis dynamics and in the ride control area and expect to
continue to do that in the future, as we see that as a high-growth
opportunity for us in a very high-margin business in our portfolio.
Himanshu Patel - JPMorgan - Analyst I don't think there's anymore.
Jay, maybe I could ask one last question. As you guys, I guess
increase or reduce the level of layered capacity within the
business, the contribution margin from the next cycle, what should
we think about for that in the CVS business? Jay Craig -
ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller I don't know if you want to answer
that, Chris, or what? Okay. Well, obviously the plan is to -- the
reason we're making these investments is, as Chris mentioned, our
sweet spot, I like to call it our intersection of the marginal
revenue and marginal cost curve is a very limited point for those
of us who go back to our microeconomics education. So we're trying
to expand that sweet point right now, that sweet spot, through
investments in our infrastructure, so that we can take advantage of
the next upturn in the cycle in '08 and '09 in North America. Some
of the plant closures that we anticipate we will not -- we're not
planning on executing those until the end of the '09 upturn, so
that we can take advantage of that upturn and then execute some of
the higher-cost plants closing at some of the higher-cost plants
that we have in our previously announced restructuring plan.
Himanshu Patel - JPMorgan - Analyst Will the contribution margins
be different in the next cycle? Jay Craig - ArvinMeritor - SVP,
Controller They better be, or a lot of the programs we've been
going forward with won't be worth the investment. They will be for
several reasons. One will be just eliminating some of the
very-high-cost layered capacity. This layered capacity model did
require us to go to some very, very small suppliers at the very
high end, or suppliers that weren't regular suppliers for us during
lower-volume periods. And the cost of that capacity was very, very
high. So we should be eliminating quite a bit of that in the
future. In addition, the Performance Plus program is significantly
reducing our fixed cost base, so we should be able to see expanded
margin opportunities in '08 and '09 and '10. Himanshu Patel -
JPMorgan - Analyst And, lastly, on the layered capacity, it was
quite heralded as being quite a good idea for the Company a few
years ago. What changed the economics on that? Did the volumes come
in a lot stronger or did the cost of those third-party suppliers
end up being a lot higher? www.streetevents.com Contact Us 10 2007
Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this
publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
means without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.
12. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM -
ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference Jay Craig
- ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller I have the misfortune of not
having been here when the decisions were made on that, but I
believe the cost of what we saw on the layered capacity model was
higher than what management had previously anticipated. And that's
why we're taking a different direction through the expected upturn
in '08 and '09. Himanshu Patel - JPMorgan - Analyst Great. I think
that's it. Thank you very much, guys. Jay Craig - ArvinMeritor -
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