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  • 1. FINAL TRANSCRIPT ARM - ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference Event Date/Time: Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM ET www.streetevents.com Contact Us 2007 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.
  • 2. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS Jay Craig ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller Chris Snodgrass ArvinMeritor - VP, Manufacturing & Supply Chain Management CONFERENCE CALL PARTICIPANTS Eric Selle JPMorgan - Analyst Himanshu Patel JPMorgan - Analyst Stephanie Renegar JPMorgan - Analyst PRESENTATION Eric Selle - JPMorgan - Analyst If everybody could grab their seats, we're going to get started. Next presenters are from ArvinMeritor. Today we have Jay Craig, who is the Senior VP and Controller. We also have Chris Snodgrass, VP of Manufacturing and Supply Chain Management. So please welcome ArvinMeritor. Jay Craig - ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller Thanks, Eric. I'm Jay Craig, Senior VP and Controller of ArvinMeritor. I joined ArvinMeritor about a year ago, from GMAC. As you probably know, most of our senior management team is relatively new within the last year or so. I'm joined here by Chris Snodgrass, who joined us recently, about three months ago, and is Vice President of Manufacturing and Supply Chain for our Commercial Vehicle operation. My responsibilities include global accounting, financial analysis, SOX compliance, capital appropriations, and also the implementation of shared services globally, which encompasses consolidating our HR activities, our purchasing activities, and accounting activities, globally. And also I also lead the Overhead team and Aftermarket team in our Performance Plus restructuring program that we embarked upon in November, and I also lead the program office for that activity, as well. Just the legal wording here. Any forward-looking statements we provide today are subject to the risks detailed here. First, I just want to bring people up to a common level of understanding. We reported our third fiscal year quarter of results last Monday. We earned $0.25 per share before special items in the quarter. We also tightened our guidance for the full year to the upper end of that range previously provided. The major milestone we had this quarter, we completed the closing of our sale of our Emissions Technology business and I'll talk about -- more on that later. Last week, we also reported that our Performance Plus profit improvement program is on track to achieve $75 million of increased earnings for next year and $150 million of increased earnings for 2009 and I'd like to reconfirm that again today. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 1 2007 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.
  • 3. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference This slide shows the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for our business units. This is the metric we hold ourselves accountable to and what our incentive compensation programs are tied to internally, along with free cash flow. Our Light Vehicle Systems business continued to see margin expansion, compared to last year, reflecting the benefits of our prior restructuring, other cost reductions and also we're seeing an improved mix now that we've disposed of our Emissions Technology business. Several of our higher-margin businesses are growing quite rapidly and changing the mix of our remaining Light Vehicle business very positively. Our Commercial Vehicle Systems business faced its greatest challenge. The Class 8 production in North America fell by 54% for this fiscal quarter as compared to last year. Chris will discuss our forecast for industry volumes in more detail in his presentation. However, we are coming through that downturn very well so far. Our margins in our Commercial Vehicle business are only down 1.5% year-over-year. This is a dramatic improvement over the last downturn we experienced in 2001. The reasons for that are our continued growth of our Commercial Vehicle Aftermarket business, our Specialty business and also the execution of our layered capacity model with our breakeven point being somewhat lower than it was in the previous downturn. What I'd like to do for the remainder of the presentation is just do some cleanup with some commonly asked questions that came out of our earnings call last Monday. The most common request so far is color on our free cash flow performance for the quarter. On this chart, I presented a slightly different cut of free cash flow than we showed last week. Discontinued operations accounted for cash outflow of $114 million, most of which was related to the sale of ET. This reflected deterioration in the business, which I'll cover in more detail on a couple more slides. Also, $40 million to $60 million that was invested in working capital that it will be refunded to us later this year as a post-closing adjustment. Next, we made some working capital investments in some of the growth areas of our continuing operations, particularly our Commercial Vehicle operations in Europe. We also had $26 million of adverse collections performance, net of the receivables we securitized off balance sheet. This, again, was primarily in Europe in our Commercial Vehicle operation. The market there has exploded. Unfortunately, our receivables collections are still embedded within our plants operations in Europe. That's part of the shared services initiatives where we're pulling that out of the hands of our plants, and they lost some focus on that to accommodate the growth in that market. We've already consolidated those collection activities in North America and have seen substantial improved collections performance. We'll be moving onto Europe in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, consolidating those activities and expect to perform much more strongly than we have in the past. If you look at the change in the receivables on the balance sheet, you will get a number greater than $78 million. That's because the EMCON receivables -- which is the legal name of the entity that purchased our Emissions Technology business -- the receivable www.streetevents.com Contact Us 2 2007 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.
  • 4. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference from them is not classified as a trade receivable. And the balances have grown because of the stronger currencies in Europe and South America. In the quarter, we also contributed an additional $14 million to our pension and retiree plans, above what was expensed. For the year, this number has been $83 million, and use of cash over the amount of expense. This decrease obviously does take care of a future problem we were facing, especially several years ago. At this point, we are over 90% funded and we expect for the foreseeable future we'll have no additional funding requirements beyond what's expensed in the income statement. So total free cash for the cash outflow for the quarter was $156 million. We lowered our full-year guidance in this area to a negative $50 million to $100 million. This slide just illustrates why working capital investments were required in the shift in our regional mix. In our second fiscal quarter, 49% of our sales were outside North America. In the third quarter, this jumped to 53%, as we saw the downturn in the Class 8 Commercial Vehicle market and the expansion in Europe. Receivable terms in North America are typically -- outside North America -- are typically 30 to 45 days longer. Unfortunately, our payables terms aren't matching those extended terms from customers. We have a task force in place now to work through our vendor relationships and get the terms more evenly matched. Now what I'd like to talk about is just the deterioration in our ET business. Two things that caused us to invest more working capital within ET than we expected. First, the performance of the Emissions Technology business deteriorated in the months before closing. It started generating significant negative operating cash flow. This was exacerbated by the fact that the transaction closed a few weeks later than we initially anticipated. And, secondly, the deterioration in the business made it more difficult to reach closing in the transaction. So we did contribute more working capital at the closing. So we're very pleased with the deal. As you can see form this chart, the trailing 12-months EBITDA multiple was 7.4, and if we included the performance from May, it would have been even higher. So we're, again, very pleased to have closed the transaction and happy to have that behind us. Another question that was asked is what was the source of our income tax benefit for the fourth quarter. We have lowered the range of our expected tax provision from 8% to 12% to between 0% and minus 4%. This implies a significant tax benefit for our fiscal fourth quarter. About $7 million of that benefit relates to resolving tax contingencies as we close out prior-year audits with a couple jurisdictions outside the United States. Another $4 million relates to a change in tax law in one of the states in which we do business. That tax law change occurred in July, so it was outside of our fiscal quarter. So last issue I'd address, we had several questions regarding our Performance Plus program and when would we be disclosing more detail as far as the initiatives that have been implemented. Part of the Performance Plus program involves verification of the initiatives by the finance staff that are not directly involved in the program. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 3 2007 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.
  • 5. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference We have many initiatives, literally in excess of 100, that have been implemented and we are seeing the savings. But, at this point, I'm having the finance staff go back and reconfirm that those are not one-time and that they're also rolling into our fiscal year '08 planning. So we expect to update people in our November meeting and actually roster those ideas at that point and show the initiatives that have been implemented, just to make certain that they're captured in our '08 business plan, so we will isolate that impact at that time. At this point, I would like to turn it over to Chris, and then I'll participate in answering the questions after he's through. Chris Snodgrass - ArvinMeritor - VP, Manufacturing & Supply Chain Management Okay, thanks, Jay. So now it's the manufacturing side. Actually, Chip and Carsten asked me to come and speak. I guess it's not so normal to have manufacturing guys at these things. Maybe it is. I see only one other one on the agenda, and that's Terry Gohl from Visteon, but first I'd like to tell you a little bit about myself. I'm also new to ArvinMeritor, as Jay explained. I've been here since June. Part of the new team. I was born and raised in Portland, Oregon, and I actually began, as I was in the university going to school in Portland, I joined the commercial vehicles industry, actually with Freightliner, so that was 15 years ago. Since then, I've worked in four different countries, eight different locations and I worked in various positions in supply chain management, at production management, et cetera. And one of the most interesting things I guess, for you today, about me, was that I was actually involved in the Freightliner turnaround back in the 2000, 2001 timeframe with Rainer Schmuckle and those guys. So a lot of what you hear from the finance guys, talking about Performance Plus and the initiatives, whether it's overhead, whether it's footprint, whether it's the Lean implementation -- I was involved in all that at the Freightliner side, so I spent about 18 months of my life in that regard. After about 11 years at Freightliner, I actually moved to Germany and took a position with Mercedes on the truck side. I was responsible for supply chain management at Worth, which is the largest truck plant, actually in the world, in southern Germany. And after I got back from Germany, I actually took a position as the Director of Operations for Detroit Diesel, which is a big engine manufacturing plant here in Detroit, actually in Redford. And shortly thereafter I was asked to take care of all North American operations for engine production, both heavy duty and medium duty. So that's a little bit about me, and then back on June 1st is when I actually joined ArvinMeritor. So let's get started here. On this first slide here Jay referenced, this is quarter three, which is actually a second calendar quarter. It was a better result than our original expectations of 28,000 units. We ended up with 42,000 units, and we updated that change in our full-year forecast, although other periods remain unchanged. Another key point, and I think Jay referenced it, is that the CVS margins were down only 1.5 points when Class 8 sales were down 54% from the prior year. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 4 2007 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.
  • 6. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference Some OEMs and dealers are expressing growing confidence that we'll come out of this trough and begin to return to normal levels by the first calendar quarter of 2008, and that's good news. Because we've taken the time in 2007 with the down market to actually implement some very key initiatives at ArvinMeritor, and one of those is the ArvinMeritor Production System, which I'll talk about more as we go forward. 2008 has been characterized -- I've read some of the editorials from these type of conferences, and I guess one of the interesting things for me is that ArvinMeritor has been characterized somewhat as a Goldilocks story. That we're the best whenever things are not too hot and not too cold, which is very representative in 2008. What I would like to do in my tenure here is to change that mentality and actually get to a point where we're managing the cycles of the industry and not letting the cycles of the industry manage us. So I'm going to talk a little bit about how we do that. There's basically four points I'm going go talk through today, one of which is the ArvinMeritor Production System, which is Lean Manufacturing. The second is investments in core processes. The third is footprint optimization and timing and I'll talk a little bit about some new investments that we have. So looking at the history regarding 2005, 2006, prebuy, ArvinMeritor did not convert to what I would call peak margins, and we've recently developed a strategy to keep the value of industry sales by preparing our manufacturing platform in a much smarter way. And this slide shows some of the things that we're doing to do that. Part of managing cycles means optimizing your production system methodology, your managing footprint and your global managing presence. And I'll spend a fair bit of time talking about the production system, and management of cycles also means investing in core processes, at the same time as we restructure our manufacturing footprint to prepare us to succeed and prosper in the next upturn, coming in 2009. And, lastly, I'll talk about how we're going to grow a little bit in India and in China. So, as a real manufacturing guy, I know the importance of a Lean Production System. This Lean Production System was developed over the last six months at ArvinMeritor and we actually benchmarked existing ArvinMeritor continuous improvement programs across CVS and LVS and then consolidated them into an improved system. And we did that internally, but we also used some Lean consulting resources to help us. And the result is really a version of the Toyota Production System which is tailored to the unique requirements of our business, which includes some key differences in terms of customer-driven design specifications, higher fluctuation and market demand, high product variability and complexity, diverse manufacturing platforms and really a traditional manufacturing culture. So, as expected, we've seen a step change in productivity in the plants where we have already rolled this out. And if you look on the right-hand side of the screen, that is our wave one of our rollout. These are some of the key fundamentals that we're actually rolling out at various plants. And if you go through them just quickly, really a high focus on Visual Management and Performance Metric Boards, Key Process Indicators, so KPIs. These are the metrics that really drive the business, 5S, Eight Wastes. We're really using a lot Value Stream Mapping to go through each one of our processes and look at where we see waste and how we can improve it. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 5 2007 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.
  • 7. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference The first time through, which is also known as first pass yield, improving our quality in our first time through, lowering our rework, Kaizen and TPM workshops are being initiated rampantly across all of our manufacturing locations and we're really taking a hard look at total productive maintenance, which is a holistic system for managing the machines within the facilities. Let me take a step back and talk about the production system holistically, actually. Lean Manufacturing principles are really just words, if you don't align them to your operating systems, your management systems and the mindsets, behaviors and capabilities of your people. So if you take a look, we're actually integrating all three of those, looking very, very closely at our material flows, information flows, quality systems, maintenance systems and manpower systems. And I don't want to give you the impression that ArvinMeritor has been asleep the last few years. They haven't. We've done a lot of things in the last few years to improve the business, but now we're actually taking all of those variables and bringing them together into one, holistic system. At a very, very high level, our system really focuses on five key levers, and that's safety, quality, delivery, cost, and people. And the subsystems underneath those key principles create a path to these outcomes, as well as the accountability that is required to achieve, measure and sustain improvement. Supporting the subsystems are a collection of tools that help people do their jobs with excellence, and this is nothing new to the industry. If you look at Toyota, if you look at GM, if you look at Ford, if you look at DaimlerChrysler, these are very similar systems to what they have implemented at their facilities as well . So let's look at some of the early results in the first two months of implementation at our two largest plants. These were bottleneck operations in Europe, where we are challenged to keep up with the high-volume requirements to our customers. This is an environment where if we lose one unit of production, it can cause us to add labor, use air freight, or incur penalty charges with our customers. In the production of housings at this particular plant, we archived a 15% increase in daily production simply through launching those 10 principles I referenced in the first wave of APS rollout. At another plant, we were able to increase gear machining throughput by over 35%. Keep in mind, this is a very short timeframe. We came in, we implemented just those first 10 principles and we found this step effect to happen. So the potential out there is enormous. This type of efficiency gain will ensure higher throughput to meet the European demand and to move our margins in the direction of becoming more acceptable in Europe. We've also detailed a rollout plan, which will focus on all of our largest facilities, and over the course of the next few years, we'll have it rolled out to every facility in Asia-Pacific, in NAFTA, as well as in Europe. So in addition to improving all aspects of our manufacturing platforms, according to Lean principles, we also continue to define our core internal processes and continue to approve additional capital. By replacing and revitalizing our core process machines, we also become more efficiency and more cost effective. This is an interesting chart, and it's kind of an eye chart, I know, but I'll try and explain it. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 6 2007 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.
  • 8. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference Above is really a high-level look at the results and an evolution of the layered capacity model implemented ahead of the last pre-buy, so we're talking about 2005, 2006 timeframe. In that model, we capacitized our plants to produce components for a Class 8 industry size of about 250,000 to 280,000, and then we did final assembly for all customer needs. Above these levels, we resorted to outside sources for layered capacity. And this external layered capacity was available to us, but at very high premiums, and it also resulted, obviously, in very high variable cost. This strategy allowed us to under-invest, but prevented us from realizing peak margins. Layered capacity must still play a part, but we're doing it smarter this time around. We're identifying those processes that we consider core to our success and investing in them, both in terms of capacity and capability, with some of the latest technology, and this will help us to achieve higher margins in 2008 and beyond. One important point is that we will partly offset the cost of these investments by ceasing investment on non-core processes and outsourcing them. So what makes a process core? It's a process that is a high value add and high leverage to quality and capability. You see one of those examples on the screen up here. The gear set is a key element of an axle. It transfers power from the drive line to the pinion gear, then transfers power through to the ring gear to the axle shafts that ultimately powers the wheel ends. It's very important to the capability and durability of the axle. Fortunately, it is a process that we happen to be pretty good at. And I know that Carsten, in prior conferences, has already described our proprietary near-net pinion forging capability, which is a unique competitive advantage at ArvinMeritor. This is a core process that we want to hold internal, and our Board of Directors has recently approved a $25 million investment to continue investing in this core, core process. Another important initiative that will help us prepare for rising volumes in the future is our plant restructuring initiative. On May 1st, we announced a footprint optimization plan that will result in the closure of 13 plants, both LVS and CVS, in North America and in Western Europe. Including other administrative and engineering actions, we project that this plan will require restructuring cash of about $280 million and will result in annual benefits of $130 million to $140 million by the time we finish. And this is not like the last restructuring, which resulted in 12 plant closures. That restructuring was largely about reducing capacity. This time, especially in CVS, on the Commercial Vehicle side, reducing capacity is not a priority and we are simply optimizing our footprint to ensure that we remain competitive going forward. This footprint optimization plan has been designed to improve our efficiency and our cost. In some cases, that means streamlining material flow among our plants by moving processes among them. In some cases, it means consolidating smaller operations, such as our St. Thomas plant into other plants with better scale. I made the announcement a week, or two weeks, ago that we would close the St. Thomas facility, and you'll see more of those announcements coming in the future. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 7 2007 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.
  • 9. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference In some cases, it means consolidating smaller operations, just like that plant, into operations that can actually benefit from having a smaller operation internal to it. So you really leverage yourself with the scale of the facility. And in other cases it means simply shifting production to lower-cost sites. As part of this effort, we will add capacity in Mexico and within specific existing sites. And speaking of Mexico, it's my pleasure today to announce that we will put a new CVS plant in Northern Mexico. This new facility will be around 100,000 to 250,000 square feet and will open in time to support the peak periods of the 2009 pre-buy. So those are some of the things we are doing to prepare for the next upturn in North America, as well as to support the continuing growth in Europe. At the same time, we are finding, great opportunities to expand our business in Asia. Earlier this year, we opened a new trailer axle plant in Wuxi, China, and we also have an off-highway axle plant in China that has seen strong growth. We will continue to act opportunistically to capitalize on growth opportunities we see in China and the whole Far East region. Our axle JV in India is another great example of the growth opportunities we are seeing in the Indian domestic market. We own 35% of the JV, Automotive Axles Limited, Bharat Forge owns 35%, and the remaining 30% is traded on the Indian Stock Exchange. AAL has enjoy strong sales growth and is solidly profitable. We are able to capitalize on our long presence as a well-known manufacturer since the early '80s, and we have strong relationships with some of the largest and fastest-growing truck manufacturers as a result. Because of the rapid growth they have seen and expect over the next few years, our customers have asked us to expand our capacity. We are making this investment because we share their optimism about the local market and the future prospects of these OEMs. We are fortunate to be in a solid financial position which allows us to make these type of investments and to accelerate our future growth. So thank you again for your attention. Today, you have seen, again, many of the bold initiatives that will position ArvinMeritor to both increase margins while responding to the upcoming volume growth around the world. The management of cycles will become more and more critical as we move forward. Implementation of the ArvinMeritor Production System, investment in core processes and optimization of our manufacturing footprint will continue to drive our actions over the next two to five years. So, now Jay and I will field any questions that you have. I'd like to at this time invite -- I'm sorry if I mispronounce this, but Himanshu Patel from JPMorgan up to the stage to facilitate the questions. Thank you. QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS Himanshu Patel - JPMorgan - Analyst We've only got 10 minutes for Q&A, so fire away. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 8 2007 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.
  • 10. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference Eric Selle - JPMorgan - Analyst There you go. It's Eric Selle from JPMorgan. Jay, I was just going to ask you if you could update us on your litigation with the retiree healthcare? Where does that stand in the courts, and are there alternatives you guys are seeking on resolving that? Jay Craig - ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller Well, that's really only one of -- we have two separate unions, the USW, who has not filed suit, and then I think you're referring to the UAW case. That's moved on to the appeals court and it's not yet been heard. Obviously, we're looking at a lot of the VEBA trust transactions being executed right now and are evaluating whether we may enter negotiations with the UAW to enter a similar arrangement. Eric Selle - JPMorgan - Analyst And as you look at your recently built liquidity, how would you prioritize your use of that liquidity between a VEBA trust, potential to make an acquisition, tuck-in acquisitions, buying back some of your JVs, shareholder-friendly activities. Amongst those three, how would you stack those over the next couple of years? Jay Craig - ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller Obviously the ones that would drive the highest returns, so on the VEBA trust issue, depending on the projected discount we could receive from the liability we currently have on our balance sheet, we would look at that evaluation as compared to some of the other acquisition opportunities we're looking at currently and some of the investments similar to what Chris just discussed. Stephanie Renegar - JPMorgan - Analyst This is Stephanie Renegar from JPMorgan. We've concentrated a lot on the Commercial Vehicle side. I guess just wanting to know a little bit more about your outlook for Light Vehicle Systems, what products and ones you feel like are most core and whether or not you're evaluating that business going forward? Jay Craig - ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller Well, I assume what you're referring to as far as evaluating is just evaluating whether that whole routine be retained as part of ArvinMeritor. Obviously, we look at all the portfolio of our businesses constantly to try to maximize shareholder value. We have no current intentions of changing the direction of ArvinMeritor. As far as the products, as I mentioned in some of my comments, what we've seen with the disposal of our Emission Technology business is some of our higher profitability products are now growing at a rate that you'll see the margins continue to increase, even beyond what we're seeing currently from the previous restructuring actions. And those businesses are like our Wheels operations and some of our Doors operations. www.streetevents.com Contact Us 9 2007 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.
  • 11. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference We just recently announced our joint venture with Chery Motors in China, around ride control, and we've made significant investments in chassis dynamics and in the ride control area and expect to continue to do that in the future, as we see that as a high-growth opportunity for us in a very high-margin business in our portfolio. Himanshu Patel - JPMorgan - Analyst I don't think there's anymore. Jay, maybe I could ask one last question. As you guys, I guess increase or reduce the level of layered capacity within the business, the contribution margin from the next cycle, what should we think about for that in the CVS business? Jay Craig - ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller I don't know if you want to answer that, Chris, or what? Okay. Well, obviously the plan is to -- the reason we're making these investments is, as Chris mentioned, our sweet spot, I like to call it our intersection of the marginal revenue and marginal cost curve is a very limited point for those of us who go back to our microeconomics education. So we're trying to expand that sweet point right now, that sweet spot, through investments in our infrastructure, so that we can take advantage of the next upturn in the cycle in '08 and '09 in North America. Some of the plant closures that we anticipate we will not -- we're not planning on executing those until the end of the '09 upturn, so that we can take advantage of that upturn and then execute some of the higher-cost plants closing at some of the higher-cost plants that we have in our previously announced restructuring plan. Himanshu Patel - JPMorgan - Analyst Will the contribution margins be different in the next cycle? Jay Craig - ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller They better be, or a lot of the programs we've been going forward with won't be worth the investment. They will be for several reasons. One will be just eliminating some of the very-high-cost layered capacity. This layered capacity model did require us to go to some very, very small suppliers at the very high end, or suppliers that weren't regular suppliers for us during lower-volume periods. And the cost of that capacity was very, very high. So we should be eliminating quite a bit of that in the future. In addition, the Performance Plus program is significantly reducing our fixed cost base, so we should be able to see expanded margin opportunities in '08 and '09 and '10. Himanshu Patel - JPMorgan - Analyst And, lastly, on the layered capacity, it was quite heralded as being quite a good idea for the Company a few years ago. What changed the economics on that? Did the volumes come in a lot stronger or did the cost of those third-party suppliers end up being a lot higher? www.streetevents.com Contact Us 10 2007 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.
  • 12. FINAL TRANSCRIPT Aug. 06. 2007 / 2:00PM, ARM - ArvinMeritor, Inc. at 10th Annual Harbour Auto Conference Jay Craig - ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller I have the misfortune of not having been here when the decisions were made on that, but I believe the cost of what we saw on the layered capacity model was higher than what management had previously anticipated. And that's why we're taking a different direction through the expected upturn in '08 and '09. Himanshu Patel - JPMorgan - Analyst Great. I think that's it. Thank you very much, guys. Jay Craig - ArvinMeritor - SVP, Controller Thank you. DISCLAIMER Thomson Financial reserves the right to make changes to documents, content, or other information on this web site without obligation to notify any person of such changes. In the conference calls upon which Event Transcripts are based, companies may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding a variety of items. Such forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those stated in any forward-looking statement based on a number of important factors and risks, which are more specifically identified in the companies' most recent SEC filings. Although the companies may indicate and believe that the assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements are reasonable, any of the assumptions could prove inaccurate or incorrect and, therefore, there can be no assurance that the results contemplated in the forward-looking statements will be realized. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN EVENT TRANSCRIPTS IS A TEXTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL AND WHILE EFFORTS ARE MADE TO PROVIDE AN ACCURATE TRANSCRIPTION, THERE MAY BE MATERIAL ERRORS, OMISSIONS, OR INACCURACIES IN THE REPORTING OF THE SUBSTANCE OF THE CONFERENCE CALLS. IN NO WAY DOES THOMSON FINANCIAL OR THE APPLICABLE COMPANY ASSUME ANY RESPONSIBILITY FOR ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS MADE BASED UPON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ON THIS WEB SITE OR IN ANY EVENT TRANSCRIPT. USERS ARE ADVISED TO REVIEW THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S CONFERENCE CALL ITSELF AND THE APPLICABLE COMPANY'S SEC FILINGS BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR OTHER DECISIONS. 2007, Thomson Financial. All Rights Reserved. 1613235-2007-08-07T12:12:24.780 www.streetevents.com Contact Us 11 2007 Thomson Financial. Republished with permission. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior written consent of Thomson Financial.

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