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Principal Solar Institute
Ron SeidelDirector, Principal Solar
Ron Seidel is principal of RBS Energy Consulting, working with private equity, investment banks, and government on electric energy issues primarily in the ERCOT market. Previously, he was president of Texas Independent Energy, senior vice president of Energy Supply at City Public Service of San Antonio, and an executive at TXU where he was senior vice president of Fossil Generation and Mining, president of TXU Energy Trading, and operations manager at the Comanche Peak Nuclear Plant.
As Coal Dims, Will Solar Shine? Perspective on a Changing Electricity
Industry
Agenda
If we are the Saudi Arabia of coal, why are the prospects for coal declining?– New EPA environmental regulations– Retirement of coal plants
What fuel sources will replace coal power? Will solar power play a significant role? What happened to the capacity shortage
situation in ERCOT? The solar potential in ERCOT
EPA Emissions Regulations
Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR)
Cross State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR)
Mercury and Air Toxics Rule (MATS)
Carbon Pollution Standard for New Power Plants
Carbon Pollution Standard for Existing Power
Plants
Clean Air Interstate Rule(CAIR)
Effective in 2005, under the Clean Air Act of 1970Addresses power plant pollution drift between statesIncludes 27 Eastern States and District of ColumbiaTarget pollutants
– Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) • Phase I – 50% reduction 2010 to 2014• Phase II – 65% reduction 2015 and beyond
– Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)
Phased in caps between 2009 and 2015Interstate Cap and Trade System for allowances
Cross State Air Pollution Rule(CSAPR)
Replaces CAIR, addresses power plant pollution drift between states
Limits NOx and SO2 from power plantsFinal rule to be effective January 2012
– Five month implementation period– Revised in late 2011 and twice in early 2012– Vacated by DC Circuit court in August 2012– Supreme Court reversed DC Circuit in April 2014– The DC Circuit has not reinstated CSAPR
CAIR in place until CSAPR reinstatedBetween 1,400 and 6,000 MW capacity loss in Texas
estimated when implemented
Cross State Air Pollution RuleAffected States
Source: EPA
Mercury & Air Toxics Standard(MATS)
Issued December 2011 (1117pages!)– Numerous revisions since
Rule finalized in April 2012Compliance by April 20151100 coal and 300 oil fired units affected(>25MW)Limits on emission rates for:
– Mercury – Non-mercury metallic toxics (measured as PM) – Acid gases (measured as HCl or SO2)
Will require SO2 and Mercury removal equipment
Carbon Pollution StandardNew Power Plants
Effective January 1, 2015Proposed CO2 limits:
– Utility boilers (coal, gas, oil) = 1,100 lb CO2/MWh
– Combined cycle units = 1,000 lb CO2/MWh
Typical current CO2 emissions– Utility coal boilers = 2,000 lb CO2/MWh
– Utility gas boilers = 1,500 lb CO2/MWh
– Combined cycle units = 1,000 lb CO2/MWh
Effective June 30, 2016Objective is to cut U.S. CO2 emissions 30%
below 2005 levels by 2030State flexibility to determine reductions
– Renewables– Fuel switching– Demand management
But the EPA has final authority over state plansLet the litigation begin!
Carbon Pollution StandardExisting Power Plants
CO2 Target ReductionsBelow 2005 levels by 2030
-39%
U.S. Coal Plant Retirements2012 - 2040
MATS Effective Date
Source: EIA
Retirements = 60,000 MW (19%)
ERCOT Coal CapacityMegawatts
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 202416,000
16,500
17,000
17,500
18,000
18,500
19,000
19,500
20,000
Net retirements = 600 MW (3%)
Source: ERCOT
Worldwide PV Capacity
Source: EPIA
2013 U.S. Electric Capacity AdditionsMegawatts
Source: EIA
U.S. Renewable Capacity AdditionsMegawatts
Source: EIA
2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 20400
100
200
300
400
500
600
CoalGas/OilNuclearSolar PVSolar Therm
Year
Source: EIA
U.S. Generating Capacity Gigawatts
New ERCOT Capacity2015 - 2019
Solar Coal Gas Wind0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
198 240
3,581
8,613
Capacity Type
MW
Source: ERCOT
ERCOT SOLAR CAPACITY Megawatts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Year
Actual Planned
Source: ERCOT
ERCOT Reserve MarginsMay 2012 / May 2013 / May 2014 Reports
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 20240.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
Target =13.75%
%
December 2012 May 2013 May 2014
Source: ERCOT
ERCOT Peak Load Megawatts
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 201452000
54000
56000
58000
60000
62000
64000
66000
68000
7000068294
New Capacity Needed in ERCOTReserve Margin = 13.75%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
-380-215
-44
1,020
2,817
3,8704,623
5,671
6,716
7,764
Year
MW
Sources: ERCOT / RBS Energy Consulting
U.S Total: 152,974 GW 280,613,217 GWhrs 3,186,955 km2
Texas: 20,411 GW 38,993,582 GWhrs 425,230 km2 (61%)
Utility Scale PV PotentialRural areas
Source: NREL
Achievable Solar PV Energy in TexasReference: ERCOT Peak Load ~68 GW
Urban PV = 154 GW (13% of U.S. Total)Rural PV = 20,000 GW (14% of U.S. Total)
Achieving just 1% of this capability would produce over 200 GW or almost three times the current ERCOT maximum load.
Sources: NREL, RBS Energy Consulting
Questions and Discussion
Ron SeidelDirector, Principal Solar
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