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QUOting the The structure of political media coverage as revealed by quoting patterns: PO TUS *Vlad Niculae (me) *Caroline Suen *Justine Zhang Cristian Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil Jure Leskovec Cornell (MPI-SWS) Stanford Cornell (Stanford, MPI-SWS) Cornell (MPI-SWS) Stanford 1 equal contribution {
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Page 1: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

QUOting the

The structure of political media coverageas revealed by quoting patterns:

POTUS*Vlad Niculae (me)

*Caroline Suen*Justine Zhang

Cristian Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil Jure Leskovec

Cornell (MPI-SWS) Stanford Cornell (Stanford, MPI-SWS) Cornell (MPI-SWS)Stanford

1

equal contribution{

Page 2: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

The press claims to befair and balanced.

Tea Party Anti-Tax March, Sep 12, 2010. Capital Mall, DC

Photo Credit: Bob Simmons license CC-BY-NC-ND 2.0

America’s trust in media is at

an all time low.(Source: Gallup poll, Sept. 17 2014)

2

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“Media Bias” is subjective

Source: Gallup poll, Sept. 17 2014

Liberals

Conservatives

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Too liberal Too conservative

(Out of the ones who say it’s biased.)

3

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“Media Bias” is subjectivemultidimensional

Predetermined dimension Proxy to slant

[Dalton et al, 1998][Peake, 2007]

Democrat/Republican Endorsement

[Schiffer, 2006] Democrat/Republican Congress

[Gentzkow et al, 2010][Groseclose et al, 2005]

[Lin et al, 2011]Democrat/Republican Congress

[Ho et al, 2008] Liberal/Conservative Supreme Court Justices

& other theoretically possible dimensions… 4

hard to quantify

Page 5: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Large Scale,

Unsupervised,

Without fixing a bias dimension.

5

We want a way to address media bias:

Insight: Quoting patterns.

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Photo Credit: David Suter

Selection BiasNo space to report everything.

Outlets must makeconscious choices.

Fair world:” are the choices based only on newsworthiness?

Or is there something else behind?6

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Page 9: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

With or without this Congress, I will keep taking actions that help the economy grow. But I can do a whole lot more with your help. Because when we act together, there's nothing the United States of America can't achieve.

Barack Obama, 2012 State Of The Union address.9

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—Right Wing News

With or without this Congress, I will keep taking actions that help the economy grow. But I can do a whole lot more with your help. Because when we act together, there's nothing the United States of America can't achieve.

10

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—CNN, Huffington Post

With or without this Congress, I will keep taking actions that help the economy grow. But I can do a whole lot more with your help. Because when we act together, there's nothing the United States of America can't achieve.

11

Page 12: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Do they correspond to intuition?

Can language characterize the bias?

12

Page 13: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Do they correspond to intuition?

Can language characterize the bias?

13

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Quoting graph

275 online media outlets.(newspapers, blogs, …)

54K Obama quotes in 6 years.

Edge = outlet reported quote.230K edges.

)The Adjacency

Matrix(X=

14

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Page 15: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Can we predict quoting?If we can predict quoting choices, it means there is a pattern.

15

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Are quoting patterns systematic?

Can we predict quoting?Leave out 250K entries of X.

16

Page 17: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Can we predict quoting?Leave out 250K entries of X.

17

Matthews Correlation Coefficient

0% 14% 28%

Page 18: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Can we predict quoting?Leave out 250K entries of X.

18

Matthews Correlation Coefficient

0% 14% 28%

Reca

ll

0%

17%

33%

50%

Precision

0% 12,5% 25% 37,5% 50%

Page 19: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Can we predict quoting?

19

Matthews Correlation Coefficient

0% 14% 28%

Reca

ll

0%

17%

33%

50%

Precision

0% 12,5% 25% 37,5% 50%

Leave out 250K entries of X.

In a “fair world” without bias: - popular quotes get cited more,

Page 20: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Can we predict quoting?Leave out 250K entries of X.

In a “fair world” without bias: - popular quotes get cited more,

20

Quote Popularity

Matthews Correlation Coefficient

0% 14% 28%

Reca

ll

0%

17%

33%

50%

Precision

0% 12,5% 25% 37,5% 50%

Page 21: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Can we predict quoting?Leave out 250K entries of X.

In a “fair world” without bias: - popular quotes get cited more, - and big outlets quote more.

21

Quote Popularity

Matthews Correlation Coefficient

0% 14% 28%

Reca

ll

0%

17%

33%

50%

Precision

0% 12,5% 25% 37,5% 50%

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Are quoting patterns systematic?

Can we predict quoting?

22

Quote Popularity

+ Outlet Size

Matthews Correlation Coefficient

0% 14% 28%

Reca

ll

0%

17%

33%

50%

Precision

0% 12,5% 25% 37,5% 50%

Leave out 250K entries of X.

In a “fair world” without bias: - popular quotes get cited more, - and big outlets quote more.

Page 23: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Can we predict quoting?

23

Quote Popularity

+ Outlet Size

Matthews Correlation Coefficient

0% 14% 28%

Reca

ll

0%

17%

33%

50%

Precision

0% 12,5% 25% 37,5% 50%

Matrix completion by low-rank factorization

Page 24: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Can we predict quoting?

24

Quote Popularity

+ Outlet Size

Matthews Correlation Coefficient

0% 14% 28%

Reca

ll

0%

17%

33%

50%

Precision

0% 12,5% 25% 37,5% 50%

Matrix completion by low-rank factorization

X ≈ X̂ = U ⋅ VT

Page 25: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Can we predict quoting?

25

Quote Popularity

+ Outlet Size

Matthews Correlation Coefficient

0% 14% 28%

Reca

ll

0%

17%

33%

50%

Precision

0% 12,5% 25% 37,5% 50%

Matrix completion by low-rank factorization

)( )( )(≈

outlet space quote space

X ≈ X̂ = U ⋅ VT

Page 26: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Can we predict quoting?

26

Matrix completion by low-rank factorization

)( )( )(≈

outlet space quote space

X ≈ X̂ = U ⋅ VT

Quote Popularity

+ Outlet Size

MatrixCompletion

Matthews Correlation Coefficient

0% 14% 28%

Reca

ll

0%

17%

33%

50%

Precision

0% 12,5% 25% 37,5% 50%

Page 27: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Do they correspond to intuition?

Can language characterize the bias?

27

Page 28: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic?

Do they correspond to intuition?

Can language characterize the bias?

28

Yes! There is systematicity

beyond newsworthiness.

Page 29: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic? Yes!

Do they correspond to intuition?

Can language characterize the bias?

29

Page 30: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

)( )( )(≈

outlet space quote space

X ≈ X̂ = U ⋅ VT

30

Do they correspond to intuition?

Page 31: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

)( )( )(≈

outlet space quote space

X ≈ X̂ = U ⋅ VT

31

Do they correspond to intuition?

Page 32: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

-0,16

-0,08

0

0,08

0,16

0,00 0,03 0,07 0,10 0,13

The first two latent dimensions:

32

)(outlet space

X̂ = ⋅VT

Do they correspond to intuition?

Page 33: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

-0,16

-0,08

0

0,08

0,16

0,00 0,03 0,07 0,10 0,13

The first two latent dimensions:

33

)(outlet space

X̂ = ⋅VT

Do they correspond to intuition?

Page 34: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

-0,16

-0,08

0

0,08

0,16

0,00 0,03 0,07 0,10 0,13

The first two latent dimensions:

National ReviewThe BlazeDaily Caller

PJ MediaTown Hall

Real ClearReasonWeekly Standard

34

)(outlet space

X̂ = ⋅VT

Do they correspond to intuition?

Page 35: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

-0,16

-0,08

0

0,08

0,16

0,00 0,03 0,07 0,10 0,13

The first two latent dimensions:

National ReviewThe BlazeDaily Caller

PJ MediaTown Hall

Real ClearReasonWeekly Standard

The Guardian

The BBC

Al Jazeera

The Hindu

35

)(outlet space

X̂ = ⋅VT

Do they correspond to intuition?

Page 36: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

-0,16

-0,08

0

0,08

0,16

0,00 0,03 0,07 0,10 0,13

The first two latent dimensions:

BarackObama.com

National ReviewThe BlazeDaily Caller

PJ MediaTown Hall

Real ClearReasonWeekly Standard

Mother Jones

The Nation

Washington MonthlyCrooks & Liars

Daily Kos

The Guardian

The BBC

Al Jazeera

The Hindu

36

)(outlet space

X̂ = ⋅VT

Do they correspond to intuition?

Page 37: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Does it correspond to intuition?

At the top of dimension 2:

Free RepublicLonely ConservativeRight Wing News…

37

Page 38: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Does it correspond to intuition?

At the top of dimension 2:

Free RepublicLonely ConservativeRight Wing News…

38

Page 39: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Does it correspond to intuition?

At the top of dimension 2:

Free RepublicLonely ConservativeRight Wing News…

Around zero on dimension 2:NY PostThe EconomistLA Times…

39

Page 40: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Does it correspond to intuition?

At the top of dimension 2:

Free RepublicLonely ConservativeRight Wing News…

Around zero on dimension 2:NY PostThe EconomistLA Times…

40

Page 41: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Does it correspond to intuition?

At the top of dimension 2:

Free RepublicLonely ConservativeRight Wing News…

Around zero on dimension 2:

Around the bottom of dimension 2:Sydney Morning HeraldOttawa CitizenThe Globe And Mail…

NY PostThe EconomistLA Times…

41

Page 42: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Does it correspond to intuition?

At the top of dimension 2:

Free RepublicLonely ConservativeRight Wing News…

Around zero on dimension 2:

Around the bottom of dimension 2:Sydney Morning HeraldOttawa CitizenThe Globe And Mail…

NY PostThe EconomistLA Times…

42

Page 43: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic? Yes!

Do they correspond to intuition?

Can language characterize the bias?

43

Page 44: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic? Yes!

Do they correspond to intuition?

Can language characterize the bias?

44

Kind of. It’s not only

liberal/conservative.

Page 45: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Are quoting patterns systematic? Yes!

Do they correspond to intuition? Kind of.

Can language characterize the bias?

45

Page 46: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Can language characterize the bias?

)( )( )(≈

outlet space quote space

X ≈ X̂ = U ⋅ VT

46

Page 47: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Can language characterize the bias?

)( )( )(≈

outlet space quote space

X ≈ X̂ = U ⋅ VT

47

Page 48: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Can language characterize the bias?

-0,16

-0,08

0

0,08

0,16

0,00 0,03 0,07 0,10 0,1348

(The same axes!)

)(quote space

X̂ = U ⋅

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Can language characterize the bias?

-0,16

-0,08

0

0,08

0,16

0,00 0,03 0,07 0,10 0,13

If we don’t work even harder than we did in 2008, then we’re going to have a government that tells the American people, “you’re on your own.”

49

)(quote space

X̂ = U ⋅

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Can language characterize the bias?

-0,16

-0,08

0

0,08

0,16

0,00 0,03 0,07 0,10 0,13

The truth is, you could figure out on the back of an envelope how to get this done. The question is one of political will.

If we don’t work even harder than we did in 2008, then we’re going to have a government that tells the American people, “you’re on your own.”

50

)(quote space

X̂ = U ⋅

Page 51: as revealed by QUOting the POTUScristian/Structure_of_Political_Media_Coverage_files/...Can we predict quoting? Leave out 250K entries of X. In a “fair world” without bias: - popular

Can language characterize the bias?

-0,16

-0,08

0

0,08

0,16

0,00 0,03 0,07 0,10 0,13

If we don’t work even harder than we did in 2008, then we’re going to have a government that tells the American people, “you’re on your own.”

The truth is, you could figure out on the back of an envelope how to get this done. The question is one of political will.

By the end of the next year, all U.S. troops will be out of Iraq.

51

)(quote space

X̂ = U ⋅

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Can language characterize the bias?

Average sentiment of quotes:

52

(The same axes!)

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Can language characterize the bias?

Average sentiment of quotes:

53

(The same axes!)

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Can language characterize the bias?

Average sentiment of quotes: Amount of negation in quotes:

54

(The same axes!)

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Conclusion

55

Online visualization & data:http://snap.stanford.edu/quotus/

Quoting patterns are systematic:We can predict them.

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Conclusion

-0,16

-0,08

0

0,08

0,16

0,00 0,03 0,07 0,10 0,13

56

Online visualization & data:http://snap.stanford.edu/quotus/

Quoting patterns are systematic:We can predict them.

Selection bias is multidimensional.

Language plays a part:Sentiment and negation show alignment.


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