Low Carbon Development in Bangladesh:

Agriculture & BCCSAP 2009

M. AsaduzzamanBangladesh Institute of Development Studies

Dhaka

Presented at Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Agriculture Science Workshop

Playa del Carmen, MexicoDecember 1, 2010

Trend in Rice Output by Season

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Aus Aman Boro RiceOver time boro, dry period irrigated rice has gained prominence in area & output– rainfed aus has lost out. Aman, part rainfed-part irrigated, area & output remain largely static

Despite Growth Seasonal Rice Output Remains Volatile

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Seasonal rice outputs are volatile - aman output growth may often be negative

Mechanisation and ownership of equipments in agriculture

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Tractors PT DTW STW LLP

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Mechanisation of tillage as well as irrigation is widespread among all types of farmers, large and small

Irrigation trends by mode

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DTW STW LLP Manual Traditional Major Canal Total

Mainly mechanised ground water irrigation helped dry period cultivation – diesel operated shallow tube wells are the mainstay of the system. Surface irrigation with low lift pumps are more site-specific

Fuel choice by Mode of irrigation

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Direct Energy Use in Rice Production

• Lifting water for irrigation and mechanised tillage are main activities using energy – diesel and electricity in case of former and diesel in the second case

• Harvesting is manual – husking is manual, mechanised and also through small and large rice mills which uses biomass, electricty and diesel for boilers and motors

• Long distance transport with motorised means is common for marketing

• Apart from production, knowledge of energy use in other cases is limited – yet even here energy use may be inefficient as is the case in say irrigation

Indirect Use of Energy in Crop Production

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Urea TSP SSP DAP MOP TotalUrea is the main fertiliser in use – mainly from domestic production using natural gas. Others are mainly imported. Sales of urea show the most prominent upward trend

Irrigation efficiency of Diesel-operated STW (ha/machine)

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12Inefficiency in irrigation may be quite widespread as the graph indicates although part may be explained by soil quality and other such factors

Policy Environment• Spread of irrigation, fertiliser use and

mechanised tillage all facilitated over time by policies to encourage their use

• Inputs subsidy – fertiliser, diesel and electricity for irrigation

• Previously diesel prices were not subsidised but fixed by Government resulting in lower prices relative to rice due to rising rice prices and thus encouraging its increasing use - for electricity the prices were subsidised and nominally fixed lowering its relative price over time as next two slides show

• On the other hand, substantial reduction in public expenditure on research, extension and marketing in recent past as shown later

Price movement of Diesel

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Diesel (Tk/liter)

Diesel / Wholesale Rice (Jan 2002=100)

Movement in electricity prices

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Electricty price Rice price Index

Investment Trends in R&D, Extension and Marketing

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ALL NOMINAL ALL REAL

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Climate Change and Bangladesh

• Impact of climate change in general and on agriculture, role of agriculture in GHG emission, and response of Bangladesh to these issues have to be seen against these backdrops

Losses in Agricultural GDP due to Climatic Factors Now and in Future

Cost of present climate variability - 7.4% output/yr mainly due to lower boro output. SW coast to be worst affected.Future CC lowers output further by nearly 4%/yr.GDP loss - US$ 26 bn for ag & US$ 121 for national over 2005-50 due present variability. CC to add more losses of US$7.7 and 26 bn.

Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) 2009

• A consequence of 1/CP13• BAP• 4 inviolate principles -

– Food security– Water security– Energy security– Livelihood (incl health) security

• Six pillars, 34 programme areas• One pillar is low carbon development• Should be read along with food security

theme and Research and Knowledge Management themes

Research Principles• From food security view point emphasis on

development and popularisation of various stress-tolerant varieties

• From low carbon view point, lowering emission in agriculture

• From livelihood view point, stress on protection of employment, income and livelihood particularly of poor, women and those in ecologically fragile areas

• From water security view point, water use must be absolute minimum without waste

• From energy security view point, minimum energy needs must be fulfilled

• Each can be done separately; but not a desirable solution

• Challenge is to satisfy each condition

Challenges• Mitigation in agriculture without adaptation will

threaten food security• Adaptation without mitigation will raise cost

of production and food will be costlier• Mitigation & adaptation get intertwined and

must be addressed in this situation simultaneously

• Both require that water use be economizedthrough choice of crops, new agronomicpractices, development of drought-tolerant or escaping varieties, etc so that while energy use is lowered food production does not fall

Immediate Research Needs• Development of stress tolerant varieties-some

such as shorter duration, drought tolerance, heat tolerance to lower energy needs and GHG emission

• Development of CC-smart cropping systems• Extension and diffusion issues• Reexamination of subsidy issues to lower

wasteful water, energy use• Stabilise rainfed rice output so that irrigated rice

dependence for food security lessened & energy needs and emission lowered

• Lowering irrigation water needs• Lowering of indirect energy needs

Capacity-building needs• Capacity and technology needs assessment

to be done• Capacity of National Agricultural research

System to be a priority, particularly for research with complex and intertwined goals

• Development and transfer of cost-effective technology

• And of course financing the whole research and related activities

• Given the slow pace of CC negotiations, a new or parallel paradigm of global cooperation needs to be established

THANK YOU