ASEAN Business Outlook Survey 2014

ASEAN Business Outlook Survey2014

IN COOPERATION WITH:

54 ASEAN Business Outlook Survey2014CONTENTS

05 06 38 08 40 13 42 24 44 25 46 26 48 28 50 30 32 52 34 53 36 54

ASEAN Business Outlook Survey



Vice President, AsiaU.S. Chamber of Commerce

Acting Executive DirectorAmCham Singapore

32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 53 54

6 ASEAN Business Outlook Survey2014

IMPORTANCE OF ASEAN MARKETS

More important Less important Have the same importance

Don’t know

63% 3% 33% 1%

More important Less important Have the same importance

Don’t know

73% 2% 24% 1%

PROFIT OUTLOOK

57%

55%

48%

39%

28%

Economic recovery

Limited growth opportunities in other regions

Improvement in infrastructure

Change in business strategy

Stable political conditions

2013 Increase 2014 Increase

Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

66% 69% 64% 64%

37%50% 59%

78% 78%84% 84% 85% 85%

73% 73%62%

89%

75%

95% 93%100%

82%

Regional

9ASEAN Business Outlook Survey2014

Increased Decreased Remained about the same

79% 2% 19%

Increased Decreased Remained about the same

91% 2% 7%

LOCATION OF BUSINESS EXPANSION IN ASEAN

Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Myanmar Malaysia Philippines Singapore Cambodia Laos None Brunei

49%43% 40% 39%

31% 29%22% 20%

13%11% 6%

24%

Potential for business growth

Increasing market share

+P]LYZPÄJH[PVUVMJ\Z[VTLYIHZL

Economic recovery

Reasonable production costs

Stable government and political system

83%

46%

32%

30%

15%

Expand Contract Remain about the same Don’t know

Brunei

46%

9%

45%

Myanmar

100%

Philippines

82%

15%3%

Laos

69%

25%

6%

Malaysia

75%

19%6%

Indonesia

84%

16%

Cambodia

85%

10%5%

Regional

73%

2%

24%

1%

Thailand

74%

2%

23%

1%

Vietnam

1%

18%4%

77%

Singapore

1%2%

37%

60%

TRADE AND INVESTMENT IN ASEAN


DIVERSIFYING OPERATIONS FROM CHINA INTO ASEAN


22%

Potential for business growth

Increasing market share

+P]LYZPÄJH[PVUVMJ\Z[VTLYIHZL

Economic recovery

(]HPSHIPSP[`VM[YHPULKWLYZVUULSLMÄJPLU[THUWV^LY

Reasonable production costs

74%

50%

26%

26%

21%

20%Stable government and political system

Yes 2011 Yes 2012 Yes 2013

Regional Cambodia Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

15%

6%

11%

23%

18%21%

27%

9% 11%

27%

13%

21%19%

12%

24%

34%

24%22%21%

26%

13%10%

21%19%

MYANMAR

2012 2013

Regional Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

33%27%

37% 37%32%

37%35% 35%

41%44%

35%37%38%

30%

39%

13%26%

55%

2012 2013

Regional Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

35%

29%

38% 37%

75%

23%

49%

31%

52%

46%

39%

45%50%

60%

49%

23%

31%

55%


MONETARY AND RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS

Yes No

Regional Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

15% 18%

85% 82%

20%

80%

14% 14% 10% 11%

86% 86% 90% 89%

31%

3%

69%

97%

21%

79%

25%

75%

Thailand Vietnam

14% 15%

86% 85%

23%

77%

Yes No

Regional Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore

16% 9%

84% 91%

25%

75%

12% 14%

88% 86%

25%

75%

94%

18%

82%

6%

Yes No


20% 27%

80% 73%

20%

80%

49% 64%

2%21%

51%36%

98% 79%

38%

62%

100%

26%

74%

22%

78%

Most Significant Barriers to Conducting Business within ASEAN


77%

64%

6%

78% 78%

22% 22%

36%

70%

83%

30%

17%

65%

82%

94%

82%

35%23%

86%

14%18% 18%

Yes No

IMPORTANCE OF ASEAN INTEGRATION


ASEAN’S ECONOMIC BLUEPRINT

ASEAN REGIONAL AGREEMENTS


54%46%

56%

41%

46%

59%

54%54%

62%

68%

38%

32%

55%55%

44%

53%

45%46%

64%

36%

45%47%

Yes No

Important Neutral or Unimportant

Framework Agreement on Services

Trade Facilitation Work Program and Strategic Plan of Customs Development

Comprehensive Investment Agreement

Trade in Goods Agreement

68% 32%

63% 37%

59% 41%

56% 44%

ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 or later

1%6%

25%

9%

59%

Likey Neither likely nor unlikely Unlikely

52%

23%

25%

HopesSeamless movement of goods and

services will enable productive operations across the ASEAN region.”

ConcernsThe AEC 2015, we feel, will have enormous

and positive impact in the years following 2015, but is not well understood within our region, let alone outside of it.”

“It will mean more investment overall and all well run and efficient businesses will grow and prosper.”

“I worry about the ability of all countries in ASEAN to enforce the rules and regulations.”


Yes No

Australia & New Zealand

China India Japan Korea

45%

63%

47%48%

47%

55%

37%

53%52%

53%

Yes No


China Korea

21%

33%

27%

79%

67%73%

ASEAN FTAs – MANUFACTURING SECTOR UTILIZATION BY AGREEMENT




8% 7% 6%10%

48%49% 48%

44% 44%42% 43% 43%

51%49%

8%

Not sureYes No

Australia and New Zealand:

AllManufacturing

Electronics Consumer goods

Food & FoodProducts

Oil &Petrochemical

Pharmaceuticals& Medical

Machinery &Equipment

Othermanufacturing

45%

30%

61%

52%

40%

28%

44%

53%

ASEAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS


China

India

China:

AllManufacturing


Food & FoodProducts

Oil &Petrochemical



Othermanufacturing

63%

74% 74%

43%40%

61%

78%

66%

India:

AllManufacturing


Food & FoodProducts

Oil &Petrochemical



Othermanufacturing

47%

35%

61%

33%

20%

61% 61%

53%

Japan

Korea

Korea:

AllManufacturing


Food & FoodProducts

Oil &Petrochemical



Othermanufacturing

47%

52%

57%

38%

27%

39%

50%53%

Japan:

AllManufacturing


Food & FoodProducts

Oil &Petrochemical



Othermanufacturing

48%

61%

35%

52%

27%

61%

39%

53%




51% 51%53%

51%

2%

14%

6%

47%

35%43%

44% 44%

3% 3%

53%

Neutral/Not SureOpportunity Threat

THE REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (RCEP)

Have a neutral effectHelp Hinder

Thailand VietnamRegional Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore

39%

3%

58%

18%

82%

25%

10%

65%

39%

2%

59%

25%

12%

63%

34%

3%

63%

50%

50%

39%

61%

48%

1%

51%

35%

6%

59%

39%

61%

THE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (TPP)

Not sureYes No


23%

26%

51%

18%

55%

15%

45%

40%

31%

12%

57%

19%

31%

50%

19%

25%

56%

7%

36%

57%

23%

21%

56%

22%

28%

50%

23%

31%

46%

18%

30%

52%

27%

“ASEAN +” AGREEMENTS: THREAT OR OPPORTUNITY?

Integration & ConsolidationThe ability to leverage existing licenses in new countries would be paramount.

Hopefully the agreement will reduce and standardize regulations leading to a more competitive and business friendly environment.”

Increased InvestmentRCEP would reinforce our plan to increase investment in ASEAN.”

IP ProtectionWe hope that RCEP would offer better protection for innovators.”


THE “NOODLE BOWL” EFFECT

Helpful Neutral Unhelpful Not sure

38%

35%

17%10%

FOREIGN ACCOUNT TAX COMPLIANCE ACT (FATCA)

Not sureYes No


36%

29%

35%

37%

36%

20%

50%

30%

31%

26%

43%

25%

25%

50%

41%

25%

34%

29%

43%

28%

44%

18%

38%

32%

29%

39%

30%

39%

31%

17%

55%

28%

27%

45%

Regulatory coherence

Intellectual property protection and enforcement

Trade facilitation and logistics/supply chain

Enforceable investment rules and protection

3L]LSWSH`PUNÄLSK^P[OZ[H[LV^ULKLU[LYWYPZLZ

67%

61%

53%

52%

Increased Investment in ASEANThe TPP would strengthen the growth potential in the region, improving the risk

appetite of our bank for the region.”

Vietnam Becomes a More Attractive Location for ExpansionWe would invest more production capacity in Vietnam as opposed

to other locations.”

Increased Ease of Doing BusinessThe agreement would allow easier expansion and structural alignment.

IP protection is key for our business.”

HelpfulIt takes a lot of work, but

we are able to maximize the benefits.”

UnhelpfulIt is confusing to investors

and slows down investment decisions.”

“As a professional services firm that advises companies on FDI and trade issues, the more complicated the regulatory regime the more assistance that our potential clients will need in evaluating the impact of these agreements.”

“It’s getting very complex and is hard to get accurate and up-to-date information on the various agreements to drive business decision making across ASEAN and in Asia Pacific with the new proposed agreements.”


EXPAT REQUESTS FOR RELOCATION

Yes No


90%

10%

100%90%

10%

84% 64% 94% 93%

16% 36%6% 7%

94%

6% 6%

92%

8%

81%

19%

94%


47%36%

69%

44%

71%

56%

29%

64%

41%

23%

59%

77%

65%

27% 31%

43%35%

53%

43%

57%

73%

57%

Yes No

EXPAT ASSIGNMENT SATISFACTION

Remain about the sameIncrease Decrease


61%

4%

34%

73%

80%

20%

65%

2%

33%

50%

6%

44%

72%

6%

22%

100%

67%

5%

26%

56%

4%

39%

57%

6%

37%6%

61%

32%

27%

Not sureYes No


17%

25%

58%

18%

64%

15%

35%

50%

8%12%

80%

13%

25%

62%

9%

47%

44%

7%

14%

79%

13%

31%

56%

15%

21%

64%

25%

31%

44%

23%

22%

55%

18%

Note: After the survey had closed, it was announced that the FATCA regulations will now be coming into place in July 2014 instead of in January 2014.


EXPAT REQUESTS FOR TIME EXTENSION


78%82%

25%

81%83%

19% 17%18%

79%

73%

21%27%

90%

55%

75%74%

10%22%

50%45%

26%

Yes No

50%


33%26%

53%

31%

41%

69%

59%

74%

20%

35%

80%

65%

21%

9%

47%38%

79%

67%

43%

91%

62%

Yes No

57%

Note: Brunei is excluded from the two previous charts because too few respondents indicated that the ability to find space at international schools would be a significant problem over the next one to three years.

Yes No

Regional Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

42%

58%

50%

50%

21%33%

58%22%

79%67%

42%

78%

50%

50%70%

30%

70%

42%

58%

30%

Yes No

Regional Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

40%

60%

50%

50%

53%33% 38% 39%

47%

67% 62% 61%

38%

62%

40%

40%

60%

30%

70%

60%


Factors Regional Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

Availability of low cost labor 36% 73% 65% 53% 63% 53% 43% 74% 48% 40% 59%

Availability of raw materials 33% 55% 50% 37% 38% 38% 43% 38% 33% 35% 35%

Availability of trained personnel

41% 55% 55% 39% 69% 44% 71% 87% 57% 42% 43%

Corruption(or lack of) 48% 82% 65% 80% 75% 53% 43% 59% 87% 71% 70%

Ease of moving your products through customs

35% 36% 50% 45% 44% 56% 64% 44% 64% 30% 46%

Free movement of goods within the region

41% 36% 40% 35% 50% 47% 50% 41% 66% 40% 43%

Housing costs 39% 45% 55% 45% 44% 41% 86% 56% 71% 52% 45%

Infrastructure 48% 36% 45% 65% 63% 84% 93% 54% 89% 56% 65%

Laws & Regulations 37% 55% 50% 65% 63% 41% 86% 46% 84% 42% 59%

Local protectionism(or lack of)

41% 64% 45% 43% 44% 50% 50% 46% 60% 40% 46%

New business incentives offered by government

36% 45% 40% 47% 38% 44% 43% 44% 65% 42% 49%

6MÄJLSLHZLcosts

34% 36% 40% 45% 63% 53% 79% 51% 54% 51% 35%

Personal security 69% 91% 60% 49% 63% 34% 71% 56% 93% 75% 55%

Sentiment towards the U.S.

64% 73% 65% 53% 44% 53% 71% 79% 73% 64% 55%

Stable government & political system

51% 73% 45% 37% 38% 47% 50% 62% 90% 45% 38%

Tax structure 40% 45% 45% 45% 50% 41% 57% 56% 84% 43% 57%

:[YLUN[O!VYNYLH[LYZH[PZMHJ[PVUYH[L >LHR:[YLUN[O!7S\YHSP[`PZZH[PZÄLKI\[ZH[PZMHJ[PVUYH[LPZSLZZ[OHU

*VUJLYU!VYNYLH[LYKPZZH[PZMHJ[PVUYH[L >LHR*VUJLYU!7S\YHSP[`PZKPZZH[PZÄLKI\[KPZZH[PZMHJ[PVUYH[LPZSLZZ[OHU

Neutral: the plurality is neutral or the factor is inapplicable

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Increase: 10% or greater increase in satisfaction Weak Increase: Between 5% and 10% increase in satisfaction

Decrease: 10% or greater decrease in satisfaction Weak Decrease: Between 5% and 10% decrease in satisfaction

Minimal Change: the satisfaction percentage changed less than 5%.

5 year data is not available for Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. Cells measure the change in those reporting that they were satisfied with a given factor, not dissatisfied or neutral.

Factors Regional Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam

Availability of low cost labor 9% 11% 27% 12% 5% 13% 3%

Availability of raw materials 1% 4% 4% 21% 10% 2% 11%

Availability of trained personnel 0% 4% 1% 25% 7% 7% 3%

Corruption (or lack of) 8% 13% 14% 20% 2% 5% 3%

Ease of moving your products through customs

4% 3% 17% 6% 9% 3% 1%

Free movement of goods within the region

1% 13% 5% 12% 9% 0% 15%

Housing costs 1% 7% 16% 10% 6% 10% 2%

Infrastructure 5% 3% 27% 15% 7% 3% 4%

Laws & Regulations 1% 23% 5% 2% 5% 3% 9%

Local protectionism (or lack of) 3% 1% 7% 0% 4% 6% 16%

New business incentives offered by government

7% 13% 8% 15% 6% 7% 32%

6MÄJLSLHZLJVZ[Z 1% 2% 6% 9% 10% 1% 16%

Personal security 1% 5% 17% 18% 1% 2% 18%

Sentiment towards the U.S. 2% 7% 7% 18% 10% 9% 16%

Stable government & political system

2% 25% 1% 50% 1% 5% 31%

Tax structure 6% 19% 22% 6% 4% 13% 9%

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Indonesia Malaysia Myanmar Vietnam Thailand

73% 73%

64% 64%

55%

Profit Outlook 2013Increased Remain Steady Decrease

Profit Outlook 2014Increased Remain Steady

9%

18%

18%

82%

73%Current Business Climate:

Importance of ASEAN Markets:

Level of Trade and Investment in ASEAN:

Business Expansion:

Profit Outlook in Brunei: :H[PZÄLK +PZZH[PZÄLK

Regional ResponsibilityMultiple Countries Only One Country

46%54%

Company Expansion Plans

Expand Remain about the same Contract

9%

45%

46%

Expatriate Satisfaction:

Regional Responsibility:

Primary Business Activities:

Government Agencies:

46%

18%

18%

9%

Singapore

Thailand

Indonesia

Philippines

Major Strengths :H[PZÄLK

Major Concerns +PZZH[PZÄLK


Current Business Climate:



Business Expansion:

Profit Outlook in Cambodia:

Myanmar Laos Thailand Vietnam Indonesia

60%

35%

20%

15%10%

Profit Outlook 2013Increased Remain Steady Decrease

Profit Outlook 2014Increased Remain Steady

5%

20%

5%

95%

75%

2010 2011 2012 2013

41%

28%

13%20%





Financing Constraints:


95%

5%

Company Expansion PlansExpand Remain about the same Contract

5%

10%

85%



20%

10%

10%

5%

Vietnam

Thailand

Myanmar

Singapore





Business Expansion:

Profit Outlook in Indonesia:

Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Philippines

39% 39% 39%

33%

22%

Profit Outlook 2013

Profit Outlook 2014

2%

4%

25%

2%2%

18%

78%

69%

2010 2011 2012 20132009

55%

29%22%

13% 14%

Increased Remain Steady Decrease Not sure





63%

37%

Company Expansion PlansExpand Remain about the same

16%

84%

18%

16%

14%

12%

Thailand

Singapore

Malaysia

Vietnam

:H[PZÄLK +PZZH[PZÄLK







Business Expansion:

Profit Outlook in Laos:

LAOS

Myanmar Thailand Cambodia Indonesia Laos

50%

31%

25% 25% 25%

Profit Outlook 2013

Profit Outlook 2014

44%

6%

13%

13%

6%

50%

31%

37%







Government Agencies


56%

44%


25%

6%

69%

38%

19%

6%

6%

Cambodia

Myanmar

Thailand

Vietnam



Contract





Business Expansion:

Profit Outlook in Malaysia:

Vietnam Thailand Indonesia Philippines Singapore

50%

47%44%

31%

22%

Profit Outlook 2013

Profit Outlook 2014

35%

6%

6%

78%

16%

59%

Increased Remain Steady Decrease


2010 2011 2012 20132009

47%

15% 15%

3% 3%




31%

69%


19%

6%

75%

31%

22%

13%

6%

Singapore

Thailand

Indonesia

Philippines

Contract








Business Expansion:

Profit Outlook in Myanmar:

Indonesia Singapore Cambodia Laos Malaysia

43%

36%

29% 29% 29%

Profit Outlook 2013

Profit Outlook 2014

7%

100%

93%

Increased Remain Steady

Increased







14%

86%

Company Expansion PlansExpand

100%

50%

14%

7%

7%

Thailand

Cambodia

Singapore

Philippines







Business Expansion:

Profit Outlook in the Philippines:

Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Malaysia Myanmar

33%

28%

26%

23%

18%

Profit Outlook 2013

Profit Outlook 2014

21%

3%

15%

5%

8%

84%

64%



2010 2011 2012 20132009

39%

10%

26%

18%21%



Government Agencies


39%

61%


82%

15%

3%

23%

15%

13%

5%

Singapore

Thailand

Indonesia

Malaysia




Expand Remain about the same Don’t know





Business Expansion:

Profit Outlook in Singapore:

Indonesia Vietnam Thailand Malaysia Philippines

65%53%

49%43%

37%

Profit Outlook 2013

Profit Outlook 2014

29%

1%

5%2%

3%

11%

85%

64%



2010 2011 2012 20132009

37%

24%

14%17%

10%


96%

4%


61%

37%

2%

21%

20%

19%

7%

Thailand

Indonesia

Malaysia

Vietnam











Business Expansion:

Profit Outlook in Thailand:

Indonesia Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Cambodia

50%47% 47%

37%30%

Profit Outlook 2013

Profit Outlook 2014

25%

1%

2%

10%

89%

73%



2010 2011 2012 20132009

48%

27% 21%16%

11%


56%44%


75%

23%

2%

14%

13%

12%

11%

Indonesia

Philippines

Singapore

Malaysia




Government Agencies








Business Expansion:

Profit Outlook in Vietnam:

Vietnam Myanmar Thailand Cambodia Indonesia

58%

41%

29%26% 26%

Profit Outlook 2013

Profit Outlook 2014

28%

9%

3%

1%

12%

85%

62%


2010 2011 2012 20132009

47%

30%

19%

39%

25%



26%

74%


78%

18%

4%

17%

12%

7%

7%

Singapore

Thailand

Malaysia

Indonesia











Country of Responsibility

Only ONE country 44% 55% 95% 63% 56% 31% 86% 62% 4% 44% 74%

Multiple countries 56% 45% 5% 37% 44% 69% 14% 38% 96% 56% 26%

Primary Activities

Services 53% 46% 65% 35% 63% 34% 86% 62% 65% 51% 42%Manufacturing 32% 36% 20% 41% 25% 31% 7% 20% 24% 35% 51%

Other 15% 18% 15% 24% 12% 35% 7% 18% 11% 14% 7%

Size of Workforce (Number of Employees)*

Below 50 29% 64% 35% 14% 44% 31% 64% 13% 32% 28% 28%50 to < 500 39% 18% 40% 45% 31% 31% 7% 51% 37% 37% 51%

500 to <1,000 9% 0% 10% 15% 6% 19% 0% 10% 7% 11% 4%1000 to<1,500 6% 0% 5% 8% 0% 6% 7% 10% 4% 7% 4%1500 to<2,000 2% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 4% 2%2000 or above 13% 18% 5% 10% 19% 13% 22% 13% 17% 11% 7%

2013 Turnover in Response Country (US$)*

Below $1 million 15% 18% 30% 6% 44% 6% 57% 15% 14% 11% 14%

$1 - <$49 million 45% 55% 55% 43% 25% 44% 36% 49% 44% 44% 51%

$50 - <$99 million 11% 9% 5% 16% 13% 3% 7% 8% 12% 11% 10%

$100 - <$499 million 14% 18% 5% 19% 6% 28% 0% 20% 11% 17% 9%

$500 - <$999 million 2% 0% 0% 2% 0% 3% 0% 5% 1% 3% 0%

$1 billion or above 7% 0% 0% 10% 0% 16% 0% 0% 8% 11% 3%

Percentage of Global Turnover Represented in Response Location

Less than 5% 55% 82% 45% 61% 50% 53% 57% 59% 56% 51% 52%5% - <25% 22% 0% 15% 25% 19% 22% 29% 23% 24% 20% 20%25% - <50% 7% 9% 5% 10% 0% 16% 0% 2% 7% 10% 6%50% - <75% 3% 0% 0% 4% 12% 3% 7% 3% 1% 3% 3%75% - <100% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 8% 12%

100% 9% 9% 35% 0% 19% 6% 7% 13% 8% 8% 7%


Percentage of ASEAN Turnover Represented in Response Location

Less than 5% 21% 46% 35% 16% 37% 3% 50% 26% 20% 13% 25%5% - <25% 33% 45% 20% 49% 19% 31% 22% 25% 34% 25% 42%25% - <50% 15% 0% 5% 21% 6% 25% 7% 10% 15% 23% 11%50% - <75% 9% 0% 5% 2% 13% 22% 0% 8% 10% 13% 3%75%-<100% 7% 0% 0% 2% 6% 9% 7% 8% 7% 10% 7%

100% 15% 9% 35% 10% 19% 10% 14% 23% 14% 16% 12%

Length of Membership*

Less than 2yrs 2% 5% 0% 3% 0% 5% 0% 0%

2 yrs to < 5 yrs 8% 0% 2% 3% 5% 10% 8% 12%

5 yrs to < 10 yrs 14% 10% 2% 28% 23% 10% 10% 28%

10 yrs to < 20 yrs 31% 40% 33% 28% 33% 27% 37% 30%

20 yrs or longer 45% 45% 63% 38% 39% 48% 45% 30%

Date post:	21-Feb-2017
Category:	Documents
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ASEAN Business Outlook Survey 2014

Documents