ASEAN ENERGY OUTLOOK
1
Dr. Sanjayan Velautham ASEAN Center for Energy
Presented at:APERC Annual Conference 2017
16-17 May 2017Tokyo, Japan
One Community
for Sustainable
Energy
ASEAN – A community of opportunities
Source: ASEAN Secretariat.
ASEAN ENERGY BLUEPRINT - THE APAEC 2016-2025
3
Renewable Energy
ASEAN Power Grid
Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline
Coal and Clean Coal Technology
Energy Eff. and Conservation
Regional Energy Policy and Planning
Civilian Nuclear Energy
“Enhancing Energy Connectivity and Market Integration in ASEAN to Achieve
Energy Security, Accessibility, Affordability and Sustainability for All”
One Community
for Sustainable
Energy
41%
9%12%
18%
8%
12%
1990 – 237 MTOE
40%
13%10%
19%
8%
10%
2000 – 385 MTOE
35%
15%9%
21%
11%
9%
2015 – 635 MTOE
Historical Comparison Total Primary Energy Supply – Countrywise
Sources : ACE Database, as of 2017.
One Community
for Sustainable
Energy
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
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90%
100%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Mto
e
Coal Oil Natural GasNuclear Hydro GeothermalOther RE Trad Biomass Others
ASEAN Energy Outlook
Projected Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) in 2015 - 2040
One Community
for Sustainable
Energy
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Mto
e
Total Primary Energy Supply – SCENARIOS
Business as Usual Scenario (BAU) AMS Target Scenario (ATS) AMS Progressive Scenario (APS)
One Community
for Sustainable
Energy
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200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040M
toe
ASEAN Energy Outlook
Projected Total Final Energy Consumption 2015 - 2040
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Industry Transport ResidentialCommercial Others Non Energy Uses
One Community
for Sustainable
Energy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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80%
90%
100%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Renewables Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal
0
100
200
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500
600
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ASEAN Energy Outlook
Projected Installed Power Capacity (BAU) 2015 - 2040
One Community
for Sustainable
Energy
Installed Power Capacity for Renewable Energy :
48 GW
Renewable Energy
23%Non-renewable Energy77 %
203 GW
Renewable Energy
21%
Non-renewable Energy
79%930TWh
Power Generation for Renewable Energy197 TWh
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ASEAN Energy OutlookInstalled Power Capacity 2015
One Community
for Sustainable
Energy• ASEAN energy will grow 3.9% per year into 2040 – much higher than the expected world average 1%.
• Country’s contribution is changed but 5 major AMS continue dominating the energy demand.
• Continues to rely on fossil fuels – but EE will reduce 18-28% demand by 2040.
• Industry and transport as main driver for the energy consumption – high potential for EE saving.
• Today’s installed capacity dominated by natural gas – outstrip by coal in the next 5 years, and RE will also grow fast.
Conclusion