Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center

at the Israel Intelligence Heritage & Commemoration Center (IICC)

2009ינואר ב1

Summary of rocket fire and mortar shelling in 2008

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Ashdod

Ashkelon

Kiryat Gat

Beersheba

2

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1. The year 2008 saw the peak of rocket use by Hamas and the other terrorist organizations operating in the Gaza Strip. Last year, the terrorist organizations managed to significantly

increase the scope of rocket attacks. They gradually put nearly one million Israeli

civilians living in the south (about 15 percent of the entire population) within the

range of the rockets, and posed a security challenge to Israel, prompting it to launch

Operation Cast Lead.

2. Rocket fire and mortar shelling first started in 2001, gradually becoming the major threat

posed by the Palestinian terrorist organizations, which consider it an asymmetrical, simple,

cheap, and reliable solution to Israel’s military superiority. The rockets, while still having their

share of problems and shortcomings, in the terrorists’ view, allow them to disrupt the lives of

Israeli civilians within the range of fire, destabilize their social fabric, override the security

fence built by Israel along the Gaza Strip, and create a kind of balance of terror that makes it

difficult for Israel’s security forces to conduct counter-activities and reflects the terrorist policy

of Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip.

3. Following are three major characteristics of the use made by Hamas and the other terrorist

organizations of rockets during 2008 (see chapter on statistical data for details):

a. A dramatic increase in the extent of rocket fire and mortar shelling despite the six months long lull in the fighting: in 2008, the peak year of rocket fire and

mortar shelling, a total of 3,278 rockets and mortar shells landed in Israeli territory

(1,750 rockets and 1,528 mortar shells). That is a significant increase compared to

2007 (the number of landings in 2008 more than doubled) and compared to the

previous years of the Palestinian terrorist campaign.

b. A significant increase in the number of Israeli residents exposed to rocket

fire within 40 km of the Gaza Strip: before 2008, the city of Sderot (about 20,000

residents) as well as villages around the Gaza Strip were the preferred target of rocket

fire and mortar shelling. In 2008, other cities and hundreds of thousands of Israelis

gradually entered the circle of fire: first the cities of Ashkelon and Netivot, and later,

during Operation Cast Lead, Ashdod, Beersheba, and other cities within a range of

40 kilometers from the Gaza Strip. The rocket attacks created a new reality in which

nearly one million Israeli residents (about 15 percent of the entire

3

population) are exposed to rocket fire and mortar shelling in various levels of

intensity.

c. A significant improvement in the effectiveness of rockets and mortar shells

possessed by Hamas and an increase in their quantity: in 2008, Hamas put into

use 122-mm Grad launchers (for ranges of 20.4 km and approximately 40

km) and standard 120-mm mortars, which were smuggled into the Gaza Strip (in

our assessment, from Iran). Those standard rockets and mortars, significantly different

from self-manufactured rockets and mortars, not only increased the range of fire but

also increased its effectiveness. That is a result of increasing the rockets’

warhead size and their fragmentation. As for the mortars—the standard 120-mm

mortars are more precise and their range is greater than that of the other mortars

possessed by Hamas and the other terrorist organizations.

4. The quantity of rockets held by Hamas and the other terrorist organizations has also increased, currently reaching, in our assessment, a constant supply of several hundred self-

manufactured 90 and 115-mm rockets and an unknown quantity of self-manufactured

long-range rockets capable of attaining greater ranges (up to 19 km). Also, we assess

that Hamas has dozens of standard long-range Grad rockets (122-mm) with a range of

20.4 km and a range of approximately 40 km, smuggled into the Gaza Strip through the

tunnels in the Rafah region, some during the lull in the fighting.

5. As a result of the rocket and mortar shell fire, eight people were killed in 2008, four of

them during Operation Cast Lead.1 During that operation, 58 people were injured as a result

of rocket and mortar fire, 10 of them moderately and severely (as at December 31, 2008).

Also, several dozen civilians were injured as a result of the rocket fire in 2008 (prior to

Operation Cast Lead), and several hundreds suffered stress-related traumas. The number of

fatalities, injuries, and stress-related traumas in 2008 is added to the number of casualties in

the previous years of the confrontation (2001-2007): 10 civilians were killed, 434 were

wounded, and thousands of civilians suffered from anxiety, shock, and various traumas as

a result of the fire. The continuing fire of rockets and mortar shells has a severe, cumulative

psychological effect on the population, causing severe damage to its social structure and

severe damage to its feeling of safety. The fire also disrupts the efforts to promote a peace

agreement between Israel and the Palestinians (the Annapolis process) by creating a lasting

1 In 2008, 21 people were killed as a result of terrorist attacks originating in the Gaza Strip, out of 31 killed as a result of terrorist attacks during that year (Summary of 2008 by the Israel Security Agency).

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reality of rocket fire and counter-measures by Israel, which reached their peak in Operation

Cast Lead.

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6. What follows is a summary of statistical data in various spreads about the rocket fire and

mortar shelling in 2008 compared to previous years:

a. Rocket fire chart in yearly distribution, 2000-2008

b. Mortar shelling chart in 2000-2008

c. Rocket fire chart in monthly distribution in 2008

d. Mortar shelling in monthly distribution in 2008

e. Rocket fire and mortar shelling during the lull in the fighting

f. Rocket fire and mortar shelling during Operation Cast Lead (as at December 31)

g. New Grad rockets and mortars which became operational in 2008:

1.122-mm Grad rockets for a range of 20.4 km 2.122-mm Grad rockets for ranges of approximately 40 km 3.120-mm mortars

h. The number of Israeli residents in the main cities of south Israel (the Negev)

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7. To complete the data and analysis in this document, one can draw upon four fundamental papers written by the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center in 2008:

a. Rocket threat from the Gaza Strip, 2000-2007 (December 2007)

b. Hamas’s military buildup in the Gaza Strip (Updated April 2008)

c. Anti-Israeli Terrorism in 2007 and its Trends in 2008 (May 2008)

d. The Six Months of the Lull Arrangement (December 2008)

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

245 257 265

876

238

22

640

1528

1730

783

946

179281

155354

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Total: 4,040 mortar shells

Total: 4,048 rockets

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361

125

1181

87

149145

196

257241

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

241

68

1338

158

206

373

103

228

136

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Total: 1,665 rockets June 19, the beginning of the

lull in the fighting

June 19, the beginning of the lull of the fighting

Total: 1,497 mortar shells

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Jan. Fe

b. Mar. Ap

r. May

Jun.

1-18

Jun.

18-3

0 Jul.

Aug. Se

p. Oct. No

v. Dec.

241

681338

384149145196257

241

361

125118

45153206373103228

136

0

200

400

Rockets

Mortar shells

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A total of 223 rockets and 139 mortar shells were fired during the lull in the fighting, including 203 rockets and 121 mortar shells between November 4 and December 19. In total, 362 rockets and mortar shells were fired at Israel during the lull in the fighting.

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Note: the chart includes the fire incidents as of June 19, the beginning of the lull in the fighting. The chart includes 3 rockets and 5 mortar shells which landed in the Gaza Strip.

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16

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1

7

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85

357

17

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0

13

4335

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15

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Rockets

Mortar shells

Total: 125 rockets and 68 mortar shells

0

2

3

1

3

88

44

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

June July August September October

Rockets

Mortar shells

Total: 20 rocket landings (3 of which in the Gaza Strip) and 18 mortar shells (5 of which in the Gaza Strip)

9

4342

57

14

61

25

30

63

101077

18

811100110

7251

12

240

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1.12

2.12

3.12

4.12

5.12

6.12

7.12

8.12

9.12

10.1

11.1

12.1

13.1

14.1

15.1

16.1

17.1

18.1

19.1

20.1

21.1

22.1

23.1

24.1

25.1

26.1

27.1

28.1

29.1

30.1

31.1

Rockets

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2

1613

14 5 4

0 0 03

1 1 2 0 0

6

1

6

18

0 1

8

30

14

10

33

1615

6

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1.12

2.12

3.12

4.12

5.12

6.12

7.12

8.12

9.12

10.1

11.1

12.1

13.1

14.1

15.1

16.1

17.1

18.1

19.1

20.1

21.1

22.1

23.1

24.1

25.1

26.1

27.1

28.1

29.1

30.1

31.1

Mortar shells

Total: 241 mortar shells in December 2008

Total: 361 rockets

The end of the lull of the fighting according to Hamas’s announcement

The end of the lull in the fighting according to Hamas’s announcement.

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

27.12 28.12 29.12 30.12 31.12

61

14

57

42 4333

16 15

6

25רקטות

פצצות מרגמה

Total: 217 rocket landings and 95 mortar shell hits during Operation Cast Lead

Rockets

Mortar shells

11

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Improved Grad rocket

Diameter—122 mm

Maximum range—20.4 km

Warhead weight—66 kg

Manufacturer—China, Iran, Russia, Bulgaria

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Diameter—122 mm

Maximum range—40 km

Warhead weight—18-22 kg

Number of ball bearings—3,000-5,700

Manufacturer—China

The remains of the rocket identified by the Israeli police, which landed near Gan Yavne, northeast of Ashdod (December 28)

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120-mm standard Iranian-made mortar shell (a replica of an

Israel Military Industries mortar shell from the 1970s supplied to

Iran). The bomb is equipped with an auxiliary rocket engine

which increases its range from six to ten kilometers.

Note: on February 24, 2008, such mortar shell was fired and

landed near Kibbutz Saad. On June 5, a 120-mm mortar shell hit

the Nirlat paint factory in Kibbutz Nir Oz, killing Amnon Rosenberg,

51, from Kibbutz Nirim, and injuring four other people, two of

them moderately. In addition, 120-mm mortar shells were fired in

some other incidents.

Large Israeli cities exposed to rocket fire

Number of residents2 City

208,900 Ashdod

186,800 Beersheba

110,000 Ashkelon

47,900 Kiryat Gat

43,300 Rahat

32,300 Yavne

26,100 Netivot

24,700 Ofakim

19,700 Kiryat Malachi

19,400 Sderot

2 According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, as of September 2008.