Dear Ashley,
Thank you for submitting your proposal. A printable summary is below. Your confirmation number is 9439. A confirmation email will be sent to you within 24
hours.
Applicants will be notified of the status of the proposed project on May 4, 2015.
If you have questions or need assistance regarding your application please contact the AIR Grant staff at 850-385-4155 x200 or [email protected].
SUMMARY
Personal Information
Name Ashley Brooke Clayton
Informal Name Ashley
Affiliation North Carolina State University
Unit/Department Leadership, Policy, and Adult and Higher Education
Title Graduate Research Assistant
Year began this position 2012
Email [email protected]
Alternate Email [email protected]
Cell Phone 7578106092
Preferred Mailing Address 2203 Lakeside View Court
Cary, North Carolina
27513
United States
Phone: 757.810.6092
Secondary Address North Carolina State University
608F Poe Hall/ Campus Box 7801
Raleigh, North Carolina
27695-7801
United States
Phone: 919-513-2514
Demographics
Highest degree
Discipline of highest degree
Position description
Staff members in IR office
Campus type
Years of experience in IR
IR Roles
Year of birth
Race/Ethnicity
Gender
Grant Type
I am applying for a:
Dissertation Grant
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Financial Representative
Name
Jeffrey Cheek
Affiliation
North Carolina State University
Department
Research Administration/SPARCS
Title
Associate Vice Chancellor
Address
2701 Sullivan Drive
Admin Services III: Box 7514
City
Raleigh
State or Province
NC
Zip or Postal Code
27695-7514
Country
USA
Additional Contacts
Name
Dr. Paul D. Umbach
Affiliation
North Carolina State University
Department
Deptment of Leadership, Policy, Adult and Higher Education
Title
Professor
Address
300C Poe Hall
Campus Box 7801
City
Raleigh
State or Province
NC
Zip or Postal Code
27695-7801
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Country
USA
Project Description
Project title:
Effects of College Counselors on College Access: An Inverse Probability Weighting Analysis
Statement of the research problem and national importance (limit 750 words):
• What is the research problem this proposal intends to address?
• Why is this topic of national importance?
• Why is it timely to conduct this research at this time?
Research Problem
Although strides have been made to promote more equity in college access, many populations, particularly low-income, first-generation, and
ethnic/racial minorities, are still highly underrepresented in higher education (Perna & Kurban, 2013; Ross et al., 2012). One contributor to this
enrollment problem is that many high schools, especially those with low college-going rates, lack sufficient college-related counseling (McDonough,
2005a; Perna et al., 2008). Public schools typically lack a designated staff member that has college preparatory responsibilities as their primary job and
who is accountable for college enrollment (McDonough, 2005b). Studies have found that supportive school counselors can be especially influential in
helping students with the college search and application process (Hossler, Schmidt, & Vesper, 1999; McDonough, 1997). However, the availability and
nature of college counseling varies greatly across and within schools (Linnehan, 2006; Perna et al., 2008). College counseling is less available in schools
with predominantly minority and/or low-income populations (McDonough, 2005a), whereas private preparatory schools invest significant resources in
their college counseling operations (McDonough, 2005b).
By default, high school guidance counselors are often tasked with assisting students with college aspirations; however, many counselors are overworked
and have other competing priorities (McDonough, 2005b). According to Perna and Kurban (2013), “Especially in low-performing high schools,
counselors often have numerous other noncollege-related responsibilities, including scheduling, testing, and providing personal and nonacademic
counseling, and may not be trained in the nuances of college and financial aid processes” (p. 22). Further, training in school counseling has not
historically included preparation in college counseling specifically (McDonough, 2005b). Therefore, as guidance counselors lack both time and training
to devote to assisting students with the college choice process, schools might need additional staff who can be devoted solely to college counseling.
In recent years there has been a development of new initiatives focused on counseling, coaching, and advising students in the college choice process
(Stephan & Rosenbaum, 2013). Some high schools have added college counselors, whose primary responsibility is assisting students with the college
choice process. These individuals serve as resources for students above and beyond the traditional guidance counselors. While many studies have
addressed college-preparatory programs, there is a smaller group of studies that examine the role of college counseling in particular (e.g. Avery, 2010;
Castleman & Goodman, 2014). As new approaches to college enrollment are developed, such as adding high school college counselors, it is critical that
rigorous impact evaluations of the interventions’ effect are conducted, as this will help inform future policy.
The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of having a college counselor in a public high school on three primary college access outcomes:
college applications, FAFSA completion, and postsecondary enrollment. Using inverse probability weighting, this study will compare the postsecondary
application and enrollment outcomes of students who attended public high schools with a college counselor to a comparison group who did not have
this resource. This study will be the first study that examines the causal impact of college counseling on postsecondary outcomes using a nationally
representative sample of students.
Implications of National Importance
In recent years, there has been an increased investment in college counseling initiatives; however, little is known about the effects of specialized college
counselors. This study is of national importance, as the findings will help inform policy for public high schools. College enrollment of high school
graduates is currently not built into the K-12 accountability system (McDonough, 2005b), which is evidenced by the lack of college counseling in public
schools as compared to private schools. As the majority of private high schools invest in college counseling initiatives and only about one in four public
high schools have a college counselor (McDonough, 2005b; NACAC, 2011), it is important to gain an understanding of the unique role and effectiveness
of college counselors in public high schools to see which practices can be replicated on a larger scale. Public schools often have limited resources, and
this study could help inform where to best allocate financial resources. Further, this study could provide implications for federal and nonprofit funding
of college counseling initiatives. The Department of Education and other non-profit organizations, such as the College Advising Corps, will have
research findings that could potentially support funding of college counselors in high schools. Lastly, this study will have important implications for
counselor education graduate programs, as they might consider developing more specialized programs for college counseling.
Review the literature and establish a theoretical grounding for the research (limit 1000 words):
• What has prior research found about this problem?
• What is the theoretical/conceptual grounding for this research?
College Counseling
Central to this study is college counseling and how this assistance impacts college enrollment. Two major bodies of literature focus on college
counseling in public high schools. The majority of prior studies focus on the role of traditional guidance counselors and a smaller group of studies
examines the role of specialized college counselors in the high school context.
Guidance counselors. Many research studies focus on college counseling in the context of public high school counselors (Linnehan et al., 2006;
McDonough, 1997, 2002, 2005a, 2005b; McDonough & Calderone, 2006; McKillip et al., 2012; Perna et al., 2008; Venezia & Kirst, 2005). According to
McDonough (2005b), “Counselors are the logical choice to be the K-12 staff member responsible for college access preparation and assistance and are
often assumed to be handling this role, yet they are inappropriately trained and structurally constrained from being able to fulfill this role in public high
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schools” (p. 69). Historically, educational programs for school counselors have not specifically included training in college counseling (Hossler et al.,
1999; McDonough 2002, 2005b). In addition to having little training, guidance counselors also have limited time to devote to college counseling given
their large student loads (McDonough, 2005a, 2005b). For example, while the American School Counselor Association (2011) recommends a maximum
student-to-counselor ratio of 250:1, in the 2010-2011 school year, the national average in public schools was 471:1. Further, guidance counselors “often
have numerous other noncollege-related responsibilities, including scheduling, testing, and providing personal and nonacademic counseling, and may
not be trained in the nuances of college and financial aid processes” (Perna & Kurban, 2013, p. 22).
Studies have found that supportive school counselors can be especially influential in helping students with the college search and application process
(Hossler, et al., 1999; McDonough, 1997). However, the nature of college counseling services varies greatly across and within schools (Linnehan et al.,
2006; Venezia & Kirst, 2005). Specifically, college counseling is more common for students in advanced college preparatory tracks (McDonough, 2005a;
Venezia & Kirst, 2005) and of higher socioeconomic status (Linnehan et al., 2006). Further, college counseling is less available in schools with
predominantly minority and/or low-income populations (McDonough, 1997; 2005a), whereas private preparatory schools invest significant resources in
their college counseling operations (McDonough, 2005b).
College counselors. There is very limited research on college counselors within the high school context. While there is a significant amount of literature
on college access, choice, and guidance counseling, there is little research that focuses specifically on how the addition of a college counselor in a high
school impacts college access. There have been a few initiatives that fall under the “coaching” model, in which a college advisor or counselor is assigned
to a high school to assist students with the college enrollment process (Stephan & Rosenbaum, 2013). One of the largest initiatives of this type is the
National College Advising Corps, which places recent college graduates into high-need public high schools to serve as college advisors (National
College Advising Corps [NCAC], 2014). In one county in North Carolina, schools who added a college advisor saw an increase in college attendance of
approximately 14 percentage points compared to control schools in the same county (Carolina College Advising Corps [CCAC], 2012).
Another similar intervention is the college coach program in Chicago Public Schools (Stephan & Rosenbaum, 2013). Coaches were not randomly
assigned to high schools, although they were “distributed fairly evenly across high schools in terms of socioeconomic composition, racial composition,
and academic achievement” (Stephan & Rosenbaum, 2013, p. 204). Using a difference-in-differences design, this study found that compared to schools
without a college coach, the coached schools had greater gains in college enrollment. Specifically, schools with the college coach treatment had
increased college enrollment by 1.7 percentage points, increased college applications by 4.7 percentage points, and increased FAFSA completion by 2.6
percentage points compared to non-coached schools (Stephan & Rosenbaum, 2013).
Despite these two related studies, there are currently no national studies on public school college counselors. The Chicago Public Schools study is the
most similar to my proposed study as it examines the impact of a college counselor in a high school on the same college access outcomes: college
applications, FAFSA completion, and college enrollment. This study seeks to expand the literature on college counseling in high schools by examining
this intervention on a national sample of high school students.
Theoretical Framework
This study is framed by Perna’s (2006) multilevel conceptual model of college choice. The model is based on an extensive review of prior research
addressing students’ college choice and enrollment behaviors. Central to the model is human capital theory, which assumes that students’ compare the
expected benefits with expected costs when making their college decisions (Becker, 1993). Perna’s model builds on human capital and assumes that
four contextual layers also influence an individual’s college choice decision. The four layers of the model are: (1) the individual’s habitus; (2) the school
and community context; (3) the higher education context; and (4) the broader social, economic, and policy context. This study draws primarily on the
school context layer, as the college counselor can be viewed as a school resource and support for students. Layer 2 is based on McDonough’s (1997)
concept of “organizational habitus,” which identifies ways that schools and communities facilitate or impede the college choice process. School
personnel can be influential in providing access to resources and helping students navigate the college application process (Hossler et al., 1999;
McDonough, 1997; Stanton-Salazar, 1997). The college counselor in this study is a school resource that should facilitate the college choice process for
students who have access to this treatment.
Describe the research method that will be used (limit 1000 words):
• What are the research questions to be addressed?
• What is the proposed research methodology?
• What is the statistical model to be used?
Research Questions
This study will ask three research questions to understand the effects of attending a public high school with a college counselor:
1. To what extent does having a college counselor in a high school have an effect on the number of college applications students complete?
2. To what extent does having a college counselor in a high school have an effect on students’ completion of the FAFSA?
3. To what extent does having a college counselor in a high school have an effect on students’ postsecondary enrollment?
Variables
Variables for the study are selected from three waves of HSLS:09 (see Table 1). There are two questions on the 2012 First Follow-up that address the
college counselor treatment. The first college counselor treatment variable, C2CLGAPP, addresses assistance with college applications. The survey
question asks, “Does your school have one or more counselors whose primary responsibility is assisting students with college applications?” The second
college counselor treatment variable, C2SELECTCLG, addresses assistance with college selection. The survey question asks, “Does your school have one
or more counselors whose primary responsibility is assisting students with college selection?” The third treatment group in this study will include
students that had access to at least one of the first two treatments.
Three outcome variables were chosen to answer the three research questions. First, the variable S3CLGAPPNUM indicates how many college
applications a student completed. Second, the variable S3APPFAFSA is a dichotomous variable that indicates whether or not a student completes the
Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). Lastly, the third outcome focuses on postsecondary enrollment. The variable, S3CLASSES, indicates if
the student was enrolled in postsecondary level classes as of November 1, 2013.
Finally, selection of covariates is fundamental to having a strong statistical model. I will select covariates based on prior research findings and logical
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explanations for what drives selection into treatment. Variables will be selected that affect both the selection of having a college counselor and the
outcome variables. Each selected covariate is aligned with theory and past empirical findings. Notably, two levels of selection are taking place in this
study, as schools are selecting to have counselors whose primary responsibility is assisting students with college and students are selecting into high
schools with or without the college counselor resource. Therefore, both school-level and student-level covariates will be in the matching model (see
Tables 2 & 3).
Methodology
Inverse probability weighting, a type of propensity score analysis, will be used to analyze the effects of the college counselor treatment. This study seeks
to compare students that are similar to the treatment group on all relevant pretreatment characteristics X, as determined by the probability (propensity)
of having the treatment. The first step of the design phase is to estimate the probability of treatment. Each unit will have a propensity score, which is the
predicted probability of treatment. After the first step, I then create weights based on the inverse probabilities of the propensity model. One of the
major advantages of using inverse probability weighting is that the analysis can include the entire analytical sample (except for the trimmed tails).
Further, using inverse probability weighting allows the researcher to run different analyses by simply the weights to the regression equation.
Statistical Models
College application model. The first empirical model will test the effects of the three college counselor treatments on the number of college applications
a student completes (see Figure 2). This analysis will use a Poisson regression equation, which is a standard approach when working with count data
(Greene, 2008). The Poisson regression model for this analysis can be depicted as:
ln(S3CLGAPPNUM i) = β0 + β1(COLLEGECOUNSELORi) + δi
where the predicted S3CLGAPPNUM i is the predicted number of applications for an individual with the COLLEGECOUNSELOR treatment. In this model,
this special transformation function is called the link function, which is the natural log (ln) depicted in the equation (Coxe et al., 2009). The regression
coefficient 1 indicates if the COLLEGECOUNSELOR treatment has an effect on the number of college applications completed. This analysis will control
for state fixed effects δi. Lastly, the calculated weights are added to the model.
FAFSA completion model. The second empirical model will examine the effects of the three college counselor treatments on FAFSA completion (see
Figure 3). A linear probablity model will be used given that the outcome variable of FAFSA completion is binary. The following is the prediction equation
for the FAFSA completion model:
S3APPFAFASAi = β0 + β1(COLLEGECOUNSELORi) + δi + εit
The variable, S3APPFAFASAi is the predicted outcome variable for FAFSA completion for each individual in the analysis. Importantly, this regression
equation will capture the treatment effect in the coefficient of the treatment variable, COLLEGECOUNSELOR. This analysis will also control for state fixed
effects (δi). The error term, εit, captures all other factors, which influence the dependent variable that are not accounted for in the model. The previously
calculated inverse probability weights are added to the model.
College enrollment model. The last empirical model, and arguably the most important, will examine the effects of the college counselor treatment on
college enrollment (see Figure 4). This third model will employ a linear probability strategy to examine the effects on the outcome variable of college
enrollment, S3CLASSES. The collapsed variable will be a binary outcome indicating if the student was enrolled in postsecondary courses of any type in
the fall following the expected high school graduation year. The following is the prediction equation for the college enrollment model:
S3CLASSESi = β0 + β1(COLLEGECOUNSELORi) + δi + εit
The variable, S3CLASSESi is the predicted outcome variable for postsecondary enrollment for each individual in the analysis. This regression equation
will capture the treatment effect in the coefficient of the treatment variable, COLLEGECOUNSELOR. This analysis will also control for state fixed effects
(δi). The error term, εit, captures all other factors which influence the dependent variable that are not accounted for in the model. Lastly, weights are
added to the model to properly weight each observation.
References cited (no word limit):
References
American School Counselor Association (2011). Student-to-school counselor ratio 2010-2011. Retrieved from
http://www.schoolcounselor.org/asca/media/ asca/home/ratios10-11.pdf
Avery, C. (2010). The effects of college counseling on high-achieving, low-income students (Working Paper No. 16359). National Bureau of Economic
Research.
Becker, G. S. (1993). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Bettinger, E. P., Long, B. T., Oreopoulos, P., & Sanbonmatsu, L. (2012). The role of application assistance and information in college decisions: Results
from the H&R Block FAFSA Experiment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(3), 1205-1242.
Castleman, B. L., Arnold, K., & Wartman, K. L. (2012). Stemming the tide of summer melt: An experimental study of the effects of post-high school
summer intervention on low-income students’ college enrollment. Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness, 5(1), 1-17.
Castleman, B., & Goodman, J. (2014). Intensive college counseling and the college enrollment choices of low income students (Working Paper Series No.
30). EdPolicyWorks. Retrieved from: http://curry.virginia.edu/uploads/resourceLibrary/ 30_College_Counseling_and_Enrollment_Choices.pdf
Coxe, S., West, S. G., & Aiken, L. S. (2009). The analysis of count data: A gentle introduction to Poisson regression and its alternatives. Journal of
Personality Assessment, 91(2), 121-136.
Greene, W. H. (2008). Econometric analysis. 5th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.
Hossler, D., Schmit, J., & Vesper, N. (1999). Going to college: How social, economic, and educational factors influence the decisions students make.
Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Linnehan, F., Weer, C. H., & Stonely, P. (2006). High school guidance counselors: Facilitator or preemptors of social stratification in education. Paper
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presented at the annual meeting of the Academy of Management, Atlanta, GA.
McDonough, P.M. (1997). Choosing colleges: How social class and schools structure opportunity. Albany: State University of New York Press.
McDonough, P. M. (2002). High school counseling and college access: A report and reconceptualization. Oakland: University of California, Office of the
President, Outreach Evaluation Task Force.
McDonough, P. (2005a). Counseling and college counseling in America’s high schools. In D.A. Hawkins and J. Lautz (Eds.), State of college admission (pp.
107-121). Washington, DC: National Association for College Admission Counseling.
McDonough, P. (2005b). Counseling matters: Knowledge, assistance, and organizational commitment in college preparation. In W. Tierney, Z. B. Corwin,
& J. E. Colyar (Eds.), Preparing for college: Nine elements of effective outreach (pp. 69-87). Albany: State University of New York Press.
McDonough, P. M., & Calderone, S. (2006). The meaning of money: Perceptual differences between college counselors and low-income families about
college costs and financial aid. American Behavioral Scientist, 49(12), 1703-1718.
McKillip, M. E., Rawls, A., & Barry, C. (2012). Improving college access: A review of research on the role of high school counselors. Professional School
Counseling, 16(1), 49-58.
National Association for College Admission Counseling (NACAC). (2011). State of college admission, 2011. Washington, DC: Author.
Perna, L. W. (2006). Studying college access and choice: A proposed conceptual model. In J. C. Smart (Ed.), Higher education: Handbook of theory and
research (Vol. 21, pp. 99–157). Dordrecht, NL: Springer.
Perna, L. W., & Kurban E. R. (2013). Improving college access and choice. In L.W. Perna & A.P Jones (Eds.). The state of college access and completion:
Improving college success for students from underrepresented groups (pp. 34-56). New York: Routledge.
Perna, L. W., Rowan-Kenyon, H. T., Thomas, S. L., Bell, A., Anderson, R., & Li, C. (2008). The role of college counseling in shaping college opportunity:
Variations across high schools. The Review of Higher Education, 31(2), 131-159.
Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41-55.
Ross, T., Kena, G., Rathbun, A., KewalRamani, A., Zhang, J., Kristapovich, P., & Manning, E. (2012). Higher education: Gaps in access and persistence study
(NCES 2012-046). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.
Stanton-Salazar, R. D. (1997). A social capital framework for understanding the socialization of racial minority children and youths. Harvard educational
review, 67(1), 1-41.
Stephan, J. L., & Rosenbaum, J. E. (2013). Can high schools reduce college enrollment gaps with a new counseling model? Educational Evaluation and
Policy Analysis, 35(2), 200-219.
Venezia, A., & Kirst, M. W. (2005). Inequitable opportunities: How current education systems and policies undermine the chances for student persistence
and success in college. Educational Policy, 19(2), 283-307.
Project Description - Appendix
• Project Description - Appendix (Clayton)
NSF Datasets
NSF datasets:
Will you use a NSF dataset?
No
Please check all NSF datasets that apply:
Explain why the selected NSF dataset(s) best serves this research limit (250 words):
Include a variable list for each dataset used.
NCES Datasets
NCES datasets:
Will you use a NCES dataset?
Yes
Please check all NCES datasets that apply:
• High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09)
Explain why the selected NCES dataset(s) best serves this research (limit 250 words):
Include a variable list for each dataset used.
This study will use a longitudinal dataset to examine the effects of college counseling on several college access outcomes. Data will be used from the
2009 High School Longitudinal Study conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). This nationally-representative dataset includes
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approximately 24,000 ninth graders from 944 high schools in the fall of 2009. An average of 25 students were randomly selected from the sample of
high schools to participate in the study. The First Follow-up was conducted in the spring of 2012 when most students were in their junior year of high
school. Most recently, the 2013 Update was collected to record students’ postsecondary options and plans (survey was administered from June –
December 2013). This study will examine students who are at public high schools and will not include private schools. The analytical sample will include
approximately 80 percent (or 19,000) of the students in the HSLS:09 study, who attended a public high school.
Prior national longitudinal surveys, such as the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002) and the High School and Beyond (HS&B) study, did
not specifically ask if there was a counselor in the high school whose primary responsibility was college counseling. Many surveys ask questions about
traditional guidance counselors, yet they do not ask if there is a specific college counselor treatment. Therefore the HSLS:09 dataset best serves this
research, as it contains two questions that address the presence of a specialized college counselor in the high school.
Timeline and Deliverables
Timeline:
Provide a timeline of key project activities.
March 2015:
Defended dissertation proposal on March 4
Submit Institutional Review Board “Request for Exemption”
Apply for restricted-use license (Advisor already has a license)
April 2015:
Clean data and run descriptive statistics
Obtain HSLS:09 2013 Follow-up results (currently in the data processing and review stage)
May – July 2015:
Run preliminary analyses and models
August – October 2015:
Run final analyses and models
November 2015:
Beginning writing up results/findings
Submit mid-year report by November 4
Poster session of preliminary results at 2015 ASHE Annual Conference
December 2015:
Finalize results/findings section
January 2016:
Finalize and write-up discussion/conclusion section
February 2016:
Final Dissertation Defense
March 2016:
Final edits and submission to the North Carolina State Graduate School
April – May 2016:
Submit manuscript to academic journal
Work on 2016 AIR presentation
June 2016:
Presentation at 2016 AIR Annual Forum
Deliverables:
List deliverables such as research reports, books, and presentations that will be developed from this research initiative.
1. Research Report: findings and implications for college counseling policy and practice
2. Journal Article: will submit manuscript to a peer-reviewed academic journal
3. Presentations: 2016 AIR Annual Forum, 2015 Association for the Study of Higher Education (ASHE) Annual Meeting
Disseminate results:
Describe how you will disseminate the results of this research.
(Note: Costs of travel to meetings should be calculated on the budget page.)
The results of this study will be disseminated to academic, practitioner, and federal government audiences. First, the research findings from this study
will be submitted for publication in one of the following top tier educational journals: American Educational Research Journal, Journal of Higher
Education, or Research in Higher Education. In addition to presenting my findings at the 2016 AIR Annual Forum, I would also like to present at the
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Annual Conference of the Association for the Study of Higher Education (ASHE). Further, a research report will be developed and shared with the
American School Counselor Association (ASCA), the Council for Accreditation of Counseling and Related Educational Programs (CACREP), and the Office
of Secondary Education at the U.S. Department of Education.
IRB Statement
Statement of Institutional Review Board approval or exemption (limit 250 words):
As part of the proposal, a statement outlining a plan for Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval is required. The statement should outline the applicant’s
timeline and plan for submitting the proposal to an IRB or explain why IRB approval is not necessary. Final IRB action is not necessary prior to submitting
the application.
This dissertation study will be considered "exempt" research. I will submit a "Request for Exemption" application to the Institutional Review Board at
North Carolina State University. This exemption application will be submitted to IRB by the end of March 2015.
Restricted Datasets
Statement of use of restricted datasets (limit 250 words):
Applicants should provide a statement indicating whether the proposed research will require use of restricted datasets. If restricted datasets will be used,
the plan for acquiring the appropriate license should be described. Review the requirements for restricted use licenses at the NCES and NSF websites.
If restricted datasets will not be used, leave this text box blank and click Save and Continue.
This proposed research will require the restricted-use HSLS:09 data. My advisor, Paul Umbach, has already applied for the restricted-use license and will
have the data soon. Students are not able to apply directly for a restricted-use data license. I April 2015, Paul Umbach will sponsor me by submitting an
application for a license. I will be considered an authorized user on his license.
Biographical Sketch(es)
Biographical sketch (limit 750 words):
Ashley Clayton is a Ph.D. candidate in the Educational Research and Policy Analysis program at North Carolina State University with a specialization in
Higher Education Administration. After completing her Bachelor’s degree at Virginia Tech in 2005, she served as an Admissions Advisor in the Office of
Undergraduate Admissions for two years. Desiring to further her career in higher education, Ashley earned a M.S. in Higher Education Administration
from Florida International University in 2009. During her time at FIU she served as a graduate assistant in the Career Services Office and Pre-College
Programs Office. In 2009, she accepted a position as the Academic/Career Coordinator of Upward Bound at Roanoke College, where she assisted first-
generation high school students with college applications and enrollment. After working with Upward Bound for several years, she enrolled full-time in
NC State’s Higher Education program in 2012. Ashley currently holds a graduate research assistantship in the Department of Leadership, Policy, and
Adult & Higher Education, where she assists faculty members on various research projects. She also serves as an Editorial Assistant for the Journal of
Higher Education.
Ashley has had a high level of quantitative training during doctoral studies. She has taken a foundational research course and both required levels of the
applied quantitative methods series. Last year, she took an advanced quantitative course on quasi-experimental methods, where she learned about
propensity score matching, inverse probability weighting, fixed effects, and regression-discontinuity techniques. She is currently taking a data
management course, where she is learning strategies for effectively working with large-scale quantitative data for educational research. The topics
covered in this course include: data cleaning, recoding and checking, merging and reshaping data, writing programs and macros to reduce errors, and
presenting descriptive data through tables and graphs. Given Ashley’s training in quantitative methods, she has tutored several doctoral-level students
in quantitative methods. This semester, Ashley was selected by the Associate Dean of the College of Education to serve as a Teaching Assistant for the
doctoral-level regression course.
During her three years at NC State, Ashley has collaborated with several faculty members on research projects and papers. She has worked as a
graduate research assistant for Drs. Andrew McEachin, Stephen Porter, and Paul Umbach. She has worked with her advisor, Paul Umbach, on several
research projects examining the effects of pre-college initiatives and remediation. Further she has collaborated with Stephen Porter on research that
examines the prevalence and implementation of field experiments in higher education. Her work with Andrew McEachin explores the effects of required
8th grade Algebra on several K-12 outcomes. Throughout these projects, Ashley gained significant experience working with large-scale datasets, writing
research papers, and presenting at national conferences. In the past three years, she has presented her research at the annual conferences of the
Association of Institutional Research (AIR), Association for the Study of Higher Education (ASHE), and the Association for Education Finance and Policy
(AEFP).
Ashley has substantial experience working with large datasets and national data from the National Center for Education Statistics. She has worked on
several projects where she has cleaned the data and run the analyses. Ashley has worked with several surveys from the Integrated Postsecondary Data
System (IPEDS) to examine the effects of North Carolina’s College Application Week on several institutional admissions outcomes. This project involved
merging, appending, and cleaning the various IPEDS surveys across several years. Recently she worked on a project using the Educational Longitudinal
Study, which examines the effects of college remediation on educational and labor market outcomes. Both of these papers have been presented at
national conferences in the past year. In addition to these projects using national data, she also has experience working with student-level data for the
University of North Carolina System and will be leading a project this spring that explores the effect of remediation at a single community college using
a regression-discontinuity approach. Ashley has also started working with the publicly available data from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009
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(HSLS:09) for her dissertation research. She ran some descriptive statistics and exploratory analyses to prepare for her dissertation proposal in March
2015. These experiences have given her valuable applied data analysis skills and made her proficient at handling issues related to large-scale national
survey data, such as weighting, missing data, and design effects.
Budget
• Dissertation Grant Budget Form - Ashley Clayton
Funding History
Funding history (limit 250 words):
A statement of prior, current, and pending funding for the proposed research from all sources is required. The statement should also include a history of
all prior funding from AIR to any of the PIs for any activity. Funding from other sources will not disqualify the application but may be considered in the
funding decision.
I have applied for two other dissertation grants and will be notified about the awards in the next two months.
I have applied for the following (pending funding):
1. AERA Dissertation Grant (up to $20,000) - awards announced in March 2015
2. NC State College of Education Dissertation Support Grant (up to $1,500) - awards announced in April 2015
Dissertation Advisor Letter of Support
• Umbach Letter of Support - Clayton
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! 1
Project Description - Appendix
!
!
Table 1
HSLS:09 Variables of Interest and Collection Timeline
HSLS:09 Data Collection Waves
Base Year First Follow-up Update
Date of Survey 2009 (Fall) 2012 (Spring) 2013 (June – December)
Grade in School 9
th grade (fall
semester)
11th
grade (spring
semester)
Summer/Fall after
senior year of high
school
Variables
Covariates:
Student-level
covariates
High school-
level
covariates
Treatment variables:
Treatment 1 – school
has counselor
designated for college
applications
Treatment 2 – school
has counselor
designated for college
selection
Outcome Variables:
Outcome 1 – number of
college applications
Outcome 2 – FAFSA
completion
Outcome 3 –
postsecondary
enrollment
!
!
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!
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!
!
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!
! !
! 2
Table 2
School-level Covariates
Variable Name Variable Label File Component Covariate Category
X1LOCALE X1 School locale (urbanicity) BY school-level
composites School Demographics
X1REGION X1 School geographic region BY school-level
composites School Demographics
X1CENDIV X1 School census geographic division BY school-level
composites School Demographics
X1FREELUNCH X1 Grade 9 percent free lunch-
categorical
BY school-level
composites School Demographics
X1REPEAT9TH X1 Percent of 9th graders repeating
9th grade
BY school-level
composites School Demographics
X1SCHAMIND X1 Percent of students in school that
are American Indian
BY school-level
composites School Demographics
X1SCHASIAN X1 Percent of students in school that
are Asian
BY school-level
composites School Demographics
X1SCHBLACK X1 Percent of students in school that
are Black
BY school-level
composites School Demographics
X1SCHHISP X1 Percent of students in school that
are Hispanic/Latino/Latina
BY school-level
composites School Demographics
X1SCHWHITE X1 Percent of students in school that
are White
BY school-level
composites School Demographics
A1ADA A1 A19 Average daily attendance
percentage for high school students
BY administrator
instrument School Demographics
A1AYPYR A1 A23 Year of AYP improvement as
of 09-10 school year
BY administrator
instrument School Demographics
A1CONFLICT A1 E18A Frequency of physical
conflicts among students at this school
BY administrator
instrument School Demographics
A1DRUGUSE A1 E18D Frequency of student illegal
drug use at this school
BY administrator
instrument School Demographics
A1ALCOHOL A1 E18E Frequency of students use of
alcohol while at school
BY administrator
instrument School Demographics
A1GANG A1 E18N Frequency of student gang
activities at this school
BY administrator
instrument School Demographics
A1RESOURCES A1 E17J Lack of teacher resources and
materials is a problem at this school
BY administrator
instrument School Resources
A1G9TUTOR A1 A26H Offers tutoring to assist
struggling 9th graders
BY administrator
instrument School Resources
A1ONCLCAPAB A1 D01M School offers Calculus AP
(AB) on-site
BY administrator
instrument School Resources
A1ONCLCAPIB A1 D01O School offers Calculus IB
on-site
BY administrator
instrument School Resources
C1CASELOAD C1 A03 Average caseload for school's
counselors
BY counselor
instrument School Resources
TOTALREV Total school revenue from federal,
state, and local levels Common Core of Data School Resources
!
Note: BY refers to the 2009 Base Year survey
! 3
Table 3
Student-level Covariates
Variable Name Variable Label File Component Covariate Category
S1SEX S1 A01 9th grader's sex BY student instrument Student
Demographics
S1HISPANIC S1 A02 9th grader is
Hispanic/Latino/Latina BY student instrument
Student
Demographics
S1HISPOR S1 A03 9th grader's
Hispanic/Latino/Latina origin BY student instrument
Student
Demographics
S1WHITE S1 A04A 9th grader is White BY student instrument Student
Demographics
S1BLACK S1 A04B 9th grader is
Black/African American BY student instrument
Student
Demographics
S1ASIAN S1 A04C 9th grader is Asian BY student instrument Student
Demographics
S1PACISLE S1 A04D 9th grader is Native
Hawaiian/Pacific Islander BY student instrument
Student
Demographics
S1AMINDIAN S1 A04E 9th grader is American
Indian or Alaska Native BY student instrument
Student
Demographics
S1ASIANOR S1 A05 9th grader's Asian origin BY student instrument Student
Demographics
S1LANG1ST
S1 A07 First language 9th grader
learned to speak is English,
Spanish, or other
BY student instrument Student
Demographics
S1MOMTALKCLG S1 E09A 9th grader talked to
mother about going to college BY student instrument
Cultural and Social
Capital
S1DADTALKCLG S1 E09B 9th grader talked to
father about going to college BY student instrument
Cultural and Social
Capital
S1FRNDTLKCLG S1 E09C 9th grader talked to
friends about going to college BY student instrument
Cultural and Social
Capital
S1TCHTALKCLG S1 E09D 9th grader talked to
teacher about going to college BY student instrument
Cultural and Social
Capital
S1CNSLTLKCLG
S1 E09E 9th grader talked to
school counselor about going to
college
BY student instrument Cultural and Social
Capital
S1NOTALKCLG
S1 E09F 9th grader didn't talk to
these people about going to
college
BY student instrument Cultural and Social
Capital
S1PLAN
S1 F07 9th grader has put
together an education plan and/or
career plan
BY student instrument Cultural and Social
Capital
S1SURECLG
S1 G02 How sure 9th grader is
that he/she will go to college to
pursue a BA/BS
BY student instrument Cultural and Social
Capital
S1ABILITYBA
S1 G03 9th grader thinks he/she
has the ability to complete a
Bachelor's degree
BY student instrument Cultural and Social
Capital
S1BAAGE30
S1 G04 9th grader would be
disappointed if he/she didn't have
a BA/BS by age 30
BY student instrument Cultural and Social
Capital
Note: BY refers to the 2009 Base Year survey
! 4
Table 3 Continued
Student-level Covariates
Note: BY refers to the 2009 Base Year survey
!
!
Variable Name Variable Label File Component Covariate Category
S1FYBA
S1 G05B 9th grader plans to
enroll in Bachelor's program in
1st year after HS
BY student instrument Cultural and Social
Capital
P1INCOME P1 C17 Household income in
2008-continuous form BY parent instrument Supply of Resources
P1INCOMECAT P1 C18 Household income in
2008-categorical form BY parent instrument Supply of Resources
P1HIDEG1 P1 C01 Parent 1's highest degree
earned BY parent instrument Supply of Resources
X1MOMEDU X1 Mother's/female guardian's
highest level of education BY student-level composites Supply of Resources
X1MOMEMP X1 Mother/female guardian's
employment status BY student-level composites Supply of Resources
X1DADEDU X1 Father's/male guardian's
highest level of education BY student-level composites Supply of Resources
X1DADEMP X1 Father/male guardian's
employment status BY student-level composites Supply of Resources
P1HELPPAY
P1 F19 Family plans to help 9th
grader pay for postsecondary
education
BY parent instrument Supply of Resources
P1PREPPAY
P1 F20 9th grader's grade when
family began financial
preparation for education
BY parent instrument Supply of Resources
S1M8
S1 B06 Most advanced math
course taken by 9th grader in the
8th grade
BY student instrument Demand for Higher
Education
S1S8
S1 B08 Most advanced science
course taken by student in the 8th
grade
BY student instrument Demand for Higher
Education
S1GOODGRADES S1 E01E Getting good grades is
important to 9th grader BY student instrument
Demand for Higher
Education
S1PSAT S1 F09A 9th grader has taken or
plans to take the PSAT BY student instrument
Demand for Higher
Education
S1SAT S1 F09B 9th grader has taken or
plans to take the SAT BY student instrument
Demand for Higher
Education
S1ACT S1 F09C 9th grader has taken or
plans to take the ACT BY student instrument
Demand for Higher
Education
S1AP
S1 F09D 9th grader has
taken/plans to take an Advanced
Placement (AP) test
BY student instrument Demand for Higher
Education
S1IBTEST
S1 F09E 9th grader has
taken/plans to take International
Baccalaureate (IB) test
BY student instrument Demand for Higher
Education
! 5
Figure 1. Perna’s (2006) multilevel conceptual model of student college choice.
Social, economic, & policy context (layer 4)
Demographic characteristics
Economic characteristics
Public policy characteristics
Higher education context (layer 3)
Marketing and recruitment
Location
Institutional characteristics
School and community context (layer 2)
Availability of resources
Types of resources
Structural supports and barriers
Habitus (layer 1)
Demographic characteristics
Gender
Race/ethnicity
Cultural capital
Cultural knowledge
Value of college attainment
Social capital
Information about college
Assistance with college processes
Demand for higher education Expected benefits
Academic preparation Monetary
Academic achievement Non-monetary College
Choice
Supply of resources Expected costs
Family income College costs
Financial aid Foregone earnings
! 6
Figure 2. College application model.
Figure 3. FAFSA completion model.
Figure 4. College enrollment model.!
!
S3CLASSESi = β0 + β1(COLLEGECOUNSELORi) + δi + εit
The variable, S3CLASSESi is the predicted outcome variable for postsecondary enrollment for
each individual in the analysis. This regression equation will capture the treatment effect in
the coefficient of the treatment variable, COLLEGECOUNSELOR. This analysis will also
control for state fixed effects (δi). The error term, εit, captures all other factors which influence
the dependent variable that are not accounted for in the model. Lastly, weights are added to
the model to properly weight each observation.
S3APPFAFASAi = β0 + β1(COLLEGECOUNSELORi) + δi + εit
The variable, S3APPFAFASAi is the predicted outcome variable for FAFSA completion for
each individual in the analysis. Importantly, this regression equation will capture the
treatment effect in the coefficient of the treatment variable, COLLEGECOUNSELOR. This
analysis will also control for state fixed effects (δi). The error term, εit, captures all other
factors, which influence the dependent variable that are not accounted for in the model. The
previously calculated inverse probability weights are added to the model.
ln(S3CLGAPPNUM i) = β0 + β1(COLLEGECOUNSELORi) + δi
where the predicted S3CLGAPPNUM i is the predicted number of applications for an
individual with the COLLEGECOUNSELOR treatment. The regression coefficient 1
indicates if the COLLEGECOUNSELOR treatment has an effect on the number of college
applications completed. This analysis will control for state fixed effects δi to reduce selection
bias by capturing the effect of unobserved heterogeneity that does not vary over time (e.g.,
demographics). Lastly, weights are added to the model to properly weight each observation
based on the inverse probability weights that were calculated in the first two steps of the
analysis.
Note
18,000.00
1,500.00
500.00
20,000.00
North Carolina State University is a land- Department of Leadership, Policy
grant university and a constituent institution and Adult and Higher Education
of The University of North Carolina College of Education
Campus Box 7801/300 Poe Hall Raleigh, NC 27695-7801 919.515.6238 (graduate office) 919-513-3706 (department head office)
919-515-6305 (fax) http://ced.ncsu.edu/ahe
March 17, 2015
AIR Research and Dissertation Grants Program
1435 E. Piedmont Drive, Suite 211
Tallahassee, FL 32308
To Whom It May Concern:
It is my pleasure to recommend Ashley Clayton for the AIR Dissertation Grant. I have
known Ashley since she joined our doctoral program in Educational Evaluation and Policy
Analysis nearly three years ago. I currently serve as her dissertation chair, advisor, and
supervisor in her role as my Research Assistant and as Editorial Assistant for the Journal of
Higher Education, where I am Senior Associate Editor. Ashley also has collaborated with me
on several research projects, which have resulted in a publication, two papers currently under
review, and several national conference presentations. Through these experiences, I have had
the opportunity to get to know Ashley’s skills, knowledge, and abilities, and I believe she is
uniquely qualified for the grant. In addition, as the chair of her dissertation, I am in a unique
position to be able to assess her work and the impact that it and her future research endeavors
are likely to have on the field of education. I offer four specific reasons why I believe she is
deserving of your dissertation grant.
First, Ashley possesses the intellectual ability, theoretical grounding, and analytical skills
required to be a successful scholar. Simply put, Ashley is among the top 5% of all graduate
students with whom I have worked since becoming a faculty member more than 11 years ago.
She is well read in the field of education, economics, and sociology and uses this knowledge
as a lens for her research. She is able to integrate and apply theory to a broad range of social
issues. She also has very strong quantitative skills and is adroit in using them to explore
research problems. She has excelled in our required quantitative methods sequence and has
taken several advanced methods courses and knows advanced techniques such as structural
equation modeling, multilevel modeling, and quasi-experimental methods. Because she has
such strong quantitative skills, she was recently asked to serve as a teaching assistant for our
doctoral-level regression course.
Second, Ashley has extensive experience working with large datasets and data from the
National Center for Education Statistics using advanced quantitative techniques. For example,
for one of the papers we have under review, she helped me run a series of panel models using
NCES’ Integrated Postsecondary Data System to evaluate North Carolina’s College
Application Week. She also is working with me on a paper, which we presented at February’s
AEFP Conference, where we use propensity score analysis and NCES’ Educational
Longitudinal Study to explore the effects of college remediation on labor market outcomes
and social mobility. She also has begun digging into the data she will be using for her
NC STATE UNIVERSITY
2
dissertation, the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09), doing some exploratory
analyses on the publicly available data to prepare for the dissertation proposal hearing.
Finally, she is leading a project where we are employing regression discontinuity using data
from a single community college to understand the effects of remediation on labor market
outcomes. Her role in these projects has ranged from cleaning the data, to running the
analyses, and to leading the entire project. These experiences have given her valuable applied
data analysis skills and made her adept at handling issues related to large-scale national
survey data, such as weighting, missing data, and design effects.
Third, Ashley’s current research, including what she is doing for her dissertation, is likely to
contribute a great deal to our understanding of the role high school counselors whose role is
college advising has in the college choice process. In recent years, to fill the gap in college
advising that high school students do not get from guidance counselors, several states (e.g.,
North Carolina, Michigan, Virginia, Texas) have developed programs like the National
College Advising Corps that place counselors in schools with the sole purpose of providing
college counseling. The federal government has also jumped in with programs like TRIO.
Despite the widespread proliferation of college counselors, we know surprisingly little about
their effects on college access. For her dissertation, she intends to use NCES’ High School
Longitudinal Study to explore how college counselors affect college going.
I believe this study is important for several reasons. First, because there has been a substantial
and growing investment in college advising programs, this study will be the first to provide
valuable information about their effectiveness. Second, she is using the richest, most current
nationally representative data set available. The HSLS:09 is the latest iteration of high school
to college (to work) panel studies from NCES, and, for the first time, the survey specifically
includes questions about counselors dedicated to college advising. Third, her work is firmly
grounded in previous research, which spans K-12 and higher education, and theory from
sociology and economics. Ashley’s ability to span sectors and disciplines greatly enhances
and strengthens the study. Finally, she employs a sound identification strategy. She
recognizes, in an ideal world she would randomly assign college counselors to schools.
Clearly, this is not practical in this case. However, in order to ameliorate bias introduced by
selection and to maintain a nationally representative sample, she is employing inverse
probability weighting, a form of propensity score analysis.
Fourth, and perhaps most important, this study is laying the groundwork for Ashley’s long-
term research agenda. She is asking important questions about access to college and policies
that will enhance the likelihood that high school students will go to college. It is worth noting
that Ashley is working on two papers related to her dissertation research. One uses a series of
panel models to analyze the effects of the North Carolina Advising Corps on college
readiness. The second is a qualitative study that examines the role college counselors have in
public high schools. Both of these studies nicely complement the work she is doing for her
dissertation.
3
What is likely to make her scholarship have an impact on policy and future research is that
her experiences, knowledge, theoretical grounding, and quantitative skills allow her to bridge
secondary and postsecondary education. Because Ashley is able to span these boundaries
adeptly, her research will go a long way in aiding our understanding of the conditions that aid
or inhibit the educational transitions of marginalized populations and will have important
social policy implications. I look forward to seeing the important contributions she will make
to the field of education.
It is without hesitation that I offer my full support of Ashley’s application for the AIR
Dissertation Grant. She successfully defended her dissertation proposal on March 4, 2015,
putting her on schedule to complete her dissertation in Spring 2016. If you need additional
information or have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.
Sincerely,
Paul D. Umbach
Professor of Higher Education and Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis
North Carolina State University
Department of Leadership, Policy, and Adult and Higher Education
300 Poe Hall, Campus Box 7801
Raleigh, NC 27695-7801
Phone: 919-515-9366
E-mail: [email protected]