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Dear Ashley, Thank you for submitting your proposal. A printable summary is below. Your confirmation number is 9439. A confirmation email will be sent to you within 24 hours. Applicants will be notified of the status of the proposed project on May 4, 2015. If you have questions or need assistance regarding your application please contact the AIR Grant staff at 850-385-4155 x200 or [email protected]. SUMMARY Personal Information Name Ashley Brooke Clayton Informal Name Ashley Affiliation North Carolina State University Unit/Department Leadership, Policy, and Adult and Higher Education Title Graduate Research Assistant Year began this position 2012 Email [email protected] Alternate Email [email protected] Cell Phone 7578106092 Preferred Mailing Address 2203 Lakeside View Court Cary, North Carolina 27513 United States Phone: 757.810.6092 Secondary Address North Carolina State University 608F Poe Hall/ Campus Box 7801 Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-7801 United States Phone: 919-513-2514 Demographics Highest degree Discipline of highest degree Position description Staff members in IR office Campus type Years of experience in IR IR Roles Year of birth Race/Ethnicity Gender Grant Type I am applying for a: Dissertation Grant Page 1 of 9 Summary 3/26/2015 https://apps.airweb.org/applicationprocess/Summary.aspx?aid=e94757c4-8736-e311-8c20-...
Transcript
Page 1: AshleyBrookeClaytonSummary - admin.airweb.orgadmin.airweb.org/.../Documents/Grants2015/ClaytonDG15-9439Proposal.pdf · Thank you for submitting your proposal. A printable summary

Dear Ashley,

Thank you for submitting your proposal. A printable summary is below. Your confirmation number is 9439. A confirmation email will be sent to you within 24

hours.

Applicants will be notified of the status of the proposed project on May 4, 2015.

If you have questions or need assistance regarding your application please contact the AIR Grant staff at 850-385-4155 x200 or [email protected].

SUMMARY

Personal Information

Name Ashley Brooke Clayton

Informal Name Ashley

Affiliation North Carolina State University

Unit/Department Leadership, Policy, and Adult and Higher Education

Title Graduate Research Assistant

Year began this position 2012

Email [email protected]

Alternate Email [email protected]

Cell Phone 7578106092

Preferred Mailing Address 2203 Lakeside View Court

Cary, North Carolina

27513

United States

Phone: 757.810.6092

Secondary Address North Carolina State University

608F Poe Hall/ Campus Box 7801

Raleigh, North Carolina

27695-7801

United States

Phone: 919-513-2514

Demographics

Highest degree

Discipline of highest degree

Position description

Staff members in IR office

Campus type

Years of experience in IR

IR Roles

Year of birth

Race/Ethnicity

Gender

Grant Type

I am applying for a:

Dissertation Grant

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Financial Representative

Name

Jeffrey Cheek

Affiliation

North Carolina State University

Department

Research Administration/SPARCS

Title

Associate Vice Chancellor

Address

2701 Sullivan Drive

Admin Services III: Box 7514

City

Raleigh

State or Province

NC

Zip or Postal Code

27695-7514

Country

USA

Additional Contacts

Name

Dr. Paul D. Umbach

Affiliation

North Carolina State University

Department

Deptment of Leadership, Policy, Adult and Higher Education

Title

Professor

Address

300C Poe Hall

Campus Box 7801

City

Raleigh

State or Province

NC

Zip or Postal Code

27695-7801

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Country

USA

Project Description

Project title:

Effects of College Counselors on College Access: An Inverse Probability Weighting Analysis

Statement of the research problem and national importance (limit 750 words):

• What is the research problem this proposal intends to address?

• Why is this topic of national importance?

• Why is it timely to conduct this research at this time?

Research Problem

Although strides have been made to promote more equity in college access, many populations, particularly low-income, first-generation, and

ethnic/racial minorities, are still highly underrepresented in higher education (Perna & Kurban, 2013; Ross et al., 2012). One contributor to this

enrollment problem is that many high schools, especially those with low college-going rates, lack sufficient college-related counseling (McDonough,

2005a; Perna et al., 2008). Public schools typically lack a designated staff member that has college preparatory responsibilities as their primary job and

who is accountable for college enrollment (McDonough, 2005b). Studies have found that supportive school counselors can be especially influential in

helping students with the college search and application process (Hossler, Schmidt, & Vesper, 1999; McDonough, 1997). However, the availability and

nature of college counseling varies greatly across and within schools (Linnehan, 2006; Perna et al., 2008). College counseling is less available in schools

with predominantly minority and/or low-income populations (McDonough, 2005a), whereas private preparatory schools invest significant resources in

their college counseling operations (McDonough, 2005b).

By default, high school guidance counselors are often tasked with assisting students with college aspirations; however, many counselors are overworked

and have other competing priorities (McDonough, 2005b). According to Perna and Kurban (2013), “Especially in low-performing high schools,

counselors often have numerous other noncollege-related responsibilities, including scheduling, testing, and providing personal and nonacademic

counseling, and may not be trained in the nuances of college and financial aid processes” (p. 22). Further, training in school counseling has not

historically included preparation in college counseling specifically (McDonough, 2005b). Therefore, as guidance counselors lack both time and training

to devote to assisting students with the college choice process, schools might need additional staff who can be devoted solely to college counseling.

In recent years there has been a development of new initiatives focused on counseling, coaching, and advising students in the college choice process

(Stephan & Rosenbaum, 2013). Some high schools have added college counselors, whose primary responsibility is assisting students with the college

choice process. These individuals serve as resources for students above and beyond the traditional guidance counselors. While many studies have

addressed college-preparatory programs, there is a smaller group of studies that examine the role of college counseling in particular (e.g. Avery, 2010;

Castleman & Goodman, 2014). As new approaches to college enrollment are developed, such as adding high school college counselors, it is critical that

rigorous impact evaluations of the interventions’ effect are conducted, as this will help inform future policy.

The purpose of this study is to explore the effect of having a college counselor in a public high school on three primary college access outcomes:

college applications, FAFSA completion, and postsecondary enrollment. Using inverse probability weighting, this study will compare the postsecondary

application and enrollment outcomes of students who attended public high schools with a college counselor to a comparison group who did not have

this resource. This study will be the first study that examines the causal impact of college counseling on postsecondary outcomes using a nationally

representative sample of students.

Implications of National Importance

In recent years, there has been an increased investment in college counseling initiatives; however, little is known about the effects of specialized college

counselors. This study is of national importance, as the findings will help inform policy for public high schools. College enrollment of high school

graduates is currently not built into the K-12 accountability system (McDonough, 2005b), which is evidenced by the lack of college counseling in public

schools as compared to private schools. As the majority of private high schools invest in college counseling initiatives and only about one in four public

high schools have a college counselor (McDonough, 2005b; NACAC, 2011), it is important to gain an understanding of the unique role and effectiveness

of college counselors in public high schools to see which practices can be replicated on a larger scale. Public schools often have limited resources, and

this study could help inform where to best allocate financial resources. Further, this study could provide implications for federal and nonprofit funding

of college counseling initiatives. The Department of Education and other non-profit organizations, such as the College Advising Corps, will have

research findings that could potentially support funding of college counselors in high schools. Lastly, this study will have important implications for

counselor education graduate programs, as they might consider developing more specialized programs for college counseling.

Review the literature and establish a theoretical grounding for the research (limit 1000 words):

• What has prior research found about this problem?

• What is the theoretical/conceptual grounding for this research?

College Counseling

Central to this study is college counseling and how this assistance impacts college enrollment. Two major bodies of literature focus on college

counseling in public high schools. The majority of prior studies focus on the role of traditional guidance counselors and a smaller group of studies

examines the role of specialized college counselors in the high school context.

Guidance counselors. Many research studies focus on college counseling in the context of public high school counselors (Linnehan et al., 2006;

McDonough, 1997, 2002, 2005a, 2005b; McDonough & Calderone, 2006; McKillip et al., 2012; Perna et al., 2008; Venezia & Kirst, 2005). According to

McDonough (2005b), “Counselors are the logical choice to be the K-12 staff member responsible for college access preparation and assistance and are

often assumed to be handling this role, yet they are inappropriately trained and structurally constrained from being able to fulfill this role in public high

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schools” (p. 69). Historically, educational programs for school counselors have not specifically included training in college counseling (Hossler et al.,

1999; McDonough 2002, 2005b). In addition to having little training, guidance counselors also have limited time to devote to college counseling given

their large student loads (McDonough, 2005a, 2005b). For example, while the American School Counselor Association (2011) recommends a maximum

student-to-counselor ratio of 250:1, in the 2010-2011 school year, the national average in public schools was 471:1. Further, guidance counselors “often

have numerous other noncollege-related responsibilities, including scheduling, testing, and providing personal and nonacademic counseling, and may

not be trained in the nuances of college and financial aid processes” (Perna & Kurban, 2013, p. 22).

Studies have found that supportive school counselors can be especially influential in helping students with the college search and application process

(Hossler, et al., 1999; McDonough, 1997). However, the nature of college counseling services varies greatly across and within schools (Linnehan et al.,

2006; Venezia & Kirst, 2005). Specifically, college counseling is more common for students in advanced college preparatory tracks (McDonough, 2005a;

Venezia & Kirst, 2005) and of higher socioeconomic status (Linnehan et al., 2006). Further, college counseling is less available in schools with

predominantly minority and/or low-income populations (McDonough, 1997; 2005a), whereas private preparatory schools invest significant resources in

their college counseling operations (McDonough, 2005b).

College counselors. There is very limited research on college counselors within the high school context. While there is a significant amount of literature

on college access, choice, and guidance counseling, there is little research that focuses specifically on how the addition of a college counselor in a high

school impacts college access. There have been a few initiatives that fall under the “coaching” model, in which a college advisor or counselor is assigned

to a high school to assist students with the college enrollment process (Stephan & Rosenbaum, 2013). One of the largest initiatives of this type is the

National College Advising Corps, which places recent college graduates into high-need public high schools to serve as college advisors (National

College Advising Corps [NCAC], 2014). In one county in North Carolina, schools who added a college advisor saw an increase in college attendance of

approximately 14 percentage points compared to control schools in the same county (Carolina College Advising Corps [CCAC], 2012).

Another similar intervention is the college coach program in Chicago Public Schools (Stephan & Rosenbaum, 2013). Coaches were not randomly

assigned to high schools, although they were “distributed fairly evenly across high schools in terms of socioeconomic composition, racial composition,

and academic achievement” (Stephan & Rosenbaum, 2013, p. 204). Using a difference-in-differences design, this study found that compared to schools

without a college coach, the coached schools had greater gains in college enrollment. Specifically, schools with the college coach treatment had

increased college enrollment by 1.7 percentage points, increased college applications by 4.7 percentage points, and increased FAFSA completion by 2.6

percentage points compared to non-coached schools (Stephan & Rosenbaum, 2013).

Despite these two related studies, there are currently no national studies on public school college counselors. The Chicago Public Schools study is the

most similar to my proposed study as it examines the impact of a college counselor in a high school on the same college access outcomes: college

applications, FAFSA completion, and college enrollment. This study seeks to expand the literature on college counseling in high schools by examining

this intervention on a national sample of high school students.

Theoretical Framework

This study is framed by Perna’s (2006) multilevel conceptual model of college choice. The model is based on an extensive review of prior research

addressing students’ college choice and enrollment behaviors. Central to the model is human capital theory, which assumes that students’ compare the

expected benefits with expected costs when making their college decisions (Becker, 1993). Perna’s model builds on human capital and assumes that

four contextual layers also influence an individual’s college choice decision. The four layers of the model are: (1) the individual’s habitus; (2) the school

and community context; (3) the higher education context; and (4) the broader social, economic, and policy context. This study draws primarily on the

school context layer, as the college counselor can be viewed as a school resource and support for students. Layer 2 is based on McDonough’s (1997)

concept of “organizational habitus,” which identifies ways that schools and communities facilitate or impede the college choice process. School

personnel can be influential in providing access to resources and helping students navigate the college application process (Hossler et al., 1999;

McDonough, 1997; Stanton-Salazar, 1997). The college counselor in this study is a school resource that should facilitate the college choice process for

students who have access to this treatment.

Describe the research method that will be used (limit 1000 words):

• What are the research questions to be addressed?

• What is the proposed research methodology?

• What is the statistical model to be used?

Research Questions

This study will ask three research questions to understand the effects of attending a public high school with a college counselor:

1. To what extent does having a college counselor in a high school have an effect on the number of college applications students complete?

2. To what extent does having a college counselor in a high school have an effect on students’ completion of the FAFSA?

3. To what extent does having a college counselor in a high school have an effect on students’ postsecondary enrollment?

Variables

Variables for the study are selected from three waves of HSLS:09 (see Table 1). There are two questions on the 2012 First Follow-up that address the

college counselor treatment. The first college counselor treatment variable, C2CLGAPP, addresses assistance with college applications. The survey

question asks, “Does your school have one or more counselors whose primary responsibility is assisting students with college applications?” The second

college counselor treatment variable, C2SELECTCLG, addresses assistance with college selection. The survey question asks, “Does your school have one

or more counselors whose primary responsibility is assisting students with college selection?” The third treatment group in this study will include

students that had access to at least one of the first two treatments.

Three outcome variables were chosen to answer the three research questions. First, the variable S3CLGAPPNUM indicates how many college

applications a student completed. Second, the variable S3APPFAFSA is a dichotomous variable that indicates whether or not a student completes the

Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA). Lastly, the third outcome focuses on postsecondary enrollment. The variable, S3CLASSES, indicates if

the student was enrolled in postsecondary level classes as of November 1, 2013.

Finally, selection of covariates is fundamental to having a strong statistical model. I will select covariates based on prior research findings and logical

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explanations for what drives selection into treatment. Variables will be selected that affect both the selection of having a college counselor and the

outcome variables. Each selected covariate is aligned with theory and past empirical findings. Notably, two levels of selection are taking place in this

study, as schools are selecting to have counselors whose primary responsibility is assisting students with college and students are selecting into high

schools with or without the college counselor resource. Therefore, both school-level and student-level covariates will be in the matching model (see

Tables 2 & 3).

Methodology

Inverse probability weighting, a type of propensity score analysis, will be used to analyze the effects of the college counselor treatment. This study seeks

to compare students that are similar to the treatment group on all relevant pretreatment characteristics X, as determined by the probability (propensity)

of having the treatment. The first step of the design phase is to estimate the probability of treatment. Each unit will have a propensity score, which is the

predicted probability of treatment. After the first step, I then create weights based on the inverse probabilities of the propensity model. One of the

major advantages of using inverse probability weighting is that the analysis can include the entire analytical sample (except for the trimmed tails).

Further, using inverse probability weighting allows the researcher to run different analyses by simply the weights to the regression equation.

Statistical Models

College application model. The first empirical model will test the effects of the three college counselor treatments on the number of college applications

a student completes (see Figure 2). This analysis will use a Poisson regression equation, which is a standard approach when working with count data

(Greene, 2008). The Poisson regression model for this analysis can be depicted as:

ln(S3CLGAPPNUM i) = β0 + β1(COLLEGECOUNSELORi) + δi

where the predicted S3CLGAPPNUM i is the predicted number of applications for an individual with the COLLEGECOUNSELOR treatment. In this model,

this special transformation function is called the link function, which is the natural log (ln) depicted in the equation (Coxe et al., 2009). The regression

coefficient 1 indicates if the COLLEGECOUNSELOR treatment has an effect on the number of college applications completed. This analysis will control

for state fixed effects δi. Lastly, the calculated weights are added to the model.

FAFSA completion model. The second empirical model will examine the effects of the three college counselor treatments on FAFSA completion (see

Figure 3). A linear probablity model will be used given that the outcome variable of FAFSA completion is binary. The following is the prediction equation

for the FAFSA completion model:

S3APPFAFASAi = β0 + β1(COLLEGECOUNSELORi) + δi + εit

The variable, S3APPFAFASAi is the predicted outcome variable for FAFSA completion for each individual in the analysis. Importantly, this regression

equation will capture the treatment effect in the coefficient of the treatment variable, COLLEGECOUNSELOR. This analysis will also control for state fixed

effects (δi). The error term, εit, captures all other factors, which influence the dependent variable that are not accounted for in the model. The previously

calculated inverse probability weights are added to the model.

College enrollment model. The last empirical model, and arguably the most important, will examine the effects of the college counselor treatment on

college enrollment (see Figure 4). This third model will employ a linear probability strategy to examine the effects on the outcome variable of college

enrollment, S3CLASSES. The collapsed variable will be a binary outcome indicating if the student was enrolled in postsecondary courses of any type in

the fall following the expected high school graduation year. The following is the prediction equation for the college enrollment model:

S3CLASSESi = β0 + β1(COLLEGECOUNSELORi) + δi + εit

The variable, S3CLASSESi is the predicted outcome variable for postsecondary enrollment for each individual in the analysis. This regression equation

will capture the treatment effect in the coefficient of the treatment variable, COLLEGECOUNSELOR. This analysis will also control for state fixed effects

(δi). The error term, εit, captures all other factors which influence the dependent variable that are not accounted for in the model. Lastly, weights are

added to the model to properly weight each observation.

References cited (no word limit):

References

American School Counselor Association (2011). Student-to-school counselor ratio 2010-2011. Retrieved from

http://www.schoolcounselor.org/asca/media/ asca/home/ratios10-11.pdf

Avery, C. (2010). The effects of college counseling on high-achieving, low-income students (Working Paper No. 16359). National Bureau of Economic

Research.

Becker, G. S. (1993). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Bettinger, E. P., Long, B. T., Oreopoulos, P., & Sanbonmatsu, L. (2012). The role of application assistance and information in college decisions: Results

from the H&R Block FAFSA Experiment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 127(3), 1205-1242.

Castleman, B. L., Arnold, K., & Wartman, K. L. (2012). Stemming the tide of summer melt: An experimental study of the effects of post-high school

summer intervention on low-income students’ college enrollment. Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness, 5(1), 1-17.

Castleman, B., & Goodman, J. (2014). Intensive college counseling and the college enrollment choices of low income students (Working Paper Series No.

30). EdPolicyWorks. Retrieved from: http://curry.virginia.edu/uploads/resourceLibrary/ 30_College_Counseling_and_Enrollment_Choices.pdf

Coxe, S., West, S. G., & Aiken, L. S. (2009). The analysis of count data: A gentle introduction to Poisson regression and its alternatives. Journal of

Personality Assessment, 91(2), 121-136.

Greene, W. H. (2008). Econometric analysis. 5th ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.

Hossler, D., Schmit, J., & Vesper, N. (1999). Going to college: How social, economic, and educational factors influence the decisions students make.

Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.

Linnehan, F., Weer, C. H., & Stonely, P. (2006). High school guidance counselors: Facilitator or preemptors of social stratification in education. Paper

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presented at the annual meeting of the Academy of Management, Atlanta, GA.

McDonough, P.M. (1997). Choosing colleges: How social class and schools structure opportunity. Albany: State University of New York Press.

McDonough, P. M. (2002). High school counseling and college access: A report and reconceptualization. Oakland: University of California, Office of the

President, Outreach Evaluation Task Force.

McDonough, P. (2005a). Counseling and college counseling in America’s high schools. In D.A. Hawkins and J. Lautz (Eds.), State of college admission (pp.

107-121). Washington, DC: National Association for College Admission Counseling.

McDonough, P. (2005b). Counseling matters: Knowledge, assistance, and organizational commitment in college preparation. In W. Tierney, Z. B. Corwin,

& J. E. Colyar (Eds.), Preparing for college: Nine elements of effective outreach (pp. 69-87). Albany: State University of New York Press.

McDonough, P. M., & Calderone, S. (2006). The meaning of money: Perceptual differences between college counselors and low-income families about

college costs and financial aid. American Behavioral Scientist, 49(12), 1703-1718.

McKillip, M. E., Rawls, A., & Barry, C. (2012). Improving college access: A review of research on the role of high school counselors. Professional School

Counseling, 16(1), 49-58.

National Association for College Admission Counseling (NACAC). (2011). State of college admission, 2011. Washington, DC: Author.

Perna, L. W. (2006). Studying college access and choice: A proposed conceptual model. In J. C. Smart (Ed.), Higher education: Handbook of theory and

research (Vol. 21, pp. 99–157). Dordrecht, NL: Springer.

Perna, L. W., & Kurban E. R. (2013). Improving college access and choice. In L.W. Perna & A.P Jones (Eds.). The state of college access and completion:

Improving college success for students from underrepresented groups (pp. 34-56). New York: Routledge.

Perna, L. W., Rowan-Kenyon, H. T., Thomas, S. L., Bell, A., Anderson, R., & Li, C. (2008). The role of college counseling in shaping college opportunity:

Variations across high schools. The Review of Higher Education, 31(2), 131-159.

Rosenbaum, P. R., & Rubin, D. B. (1983). The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika, 70(1), 41-55.

Ross, T., Kena, G., Rathbun, A., KewalRamani, A., Zhang, J., Kristapovich, P., & Manning, E. (2012). Higher education: Gaps in access and persistence study

(NCES 2012-046). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.

Stanton-Salazar, R. D. (1997). A social capital framework for understanding the socialization of racial minority children and youths. Harvard educational

review, 67(1), 1-41.

Stephan, J. L., & Rosenbaum, J. E. (2013). Can high schools reduce college enrollment gaps with a new counseling model? Educational Evaluation and

Policy Analysis, 35(2), 200-219.

Venezia, A., & Kirst, M. W. (2005). Inequitable opportunities: How current education systems and policies undermine the chances for student persistence

and success in college. Educational Policy, 19(2), 283-307.

Project Description - Appendix

• Project Description - Appendix (Clayton)

NSF Datasets

NSF datasets:

Will you use a NSF dataset?

No

Please check all NSF datasets that apply:

Explain why the selected NSF dataset(s) best serves this research limit (250 words):

Include a variable list for each dataset used.

NCES Datasets

NCES datasets:

Will you use a NCES dataset?

Yes

Please check all NCES datasets that apply:

• High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09)

Explain why the selected NCES dataset(s) best serves this research (limit 250 words):

Include a variable list for each dataset used.

This study will use a longitudinal dataset to examine the effects of college counseling on several college access outcomes. Data will be used from the

2009 High School Longitudinal Study conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). This nationally-representative dataset includes

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approximately 24,000 ninth graders from 944 high schools in the fall of 2009. An average of 25 students were randomly selected from the sample of

high schools to participate in the study. The First Follow-up was conducted in the spring of 2012 when most students were in their junior year of high

school. Most recently, the 2013 Update was collected to record students’ postsecondary options and plans (survey was administered from June –

December 2013). This study will examine students who are at public high schools and will not include private schools. The analytical sample will include

approximately 80 percent (or 19,000) of the students in the HSLS:09 study, who attended a public high school.

Prior national longitudinal surveys, such as the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002) and the High School and Beyond (HS&B) study, did

not specifically ask if there was a counselor in the high school whose primary responsibility was college counseling. Many surveys ask questions about

traditional guidance counselors, yet they do not ask if there is a specific college counselor treatment. Therefore the HSLS:09 dataset best serves this

research, as it contains two questions that address the presence of a specialized college counselor in the high school.

Timeline and Deliverables

Timeline:

Provide a timeline of key project activities.

March 2015:

Defended dissertation proposal on March 4

Submit Institutional Review Board “Request for Exemption”

Apply for restricted-use license (Advisor already has a license)

April 2015:

Clean data and run descriptive statistics

Obtain HSLS:09 2013 Follow-up results (currently in the data processing and review stage)

May – July 2015:

Run preliminary analyses and models

August – October 2015:

Run final analyses and models

November 2015:

Beginning writing up results/findings

Submit mid-year report by November 4

Poster session of preliminary results at 2015 ASHE Annual Conference

December 2015:

Finalize results/findings section

January 2016:

Finalize and write-up discussion/conclusion section

February 2016:

Final Dissertation Defense

March 2016:

Final edits and submission to the North Carolina State Graduate School

April – May 2016:

Submit manuscript to academic journal

Work on 2016 AIR presentation

June 2016:

Presentation at 2016 AIR Annual Forum

Deliverables:

List deliverables such as research reports, books, and presentations that will be developed from this research initiative.

1. Research Report: findings and implications for college counseling policy and practice

2. Journal Article: will submit manuscript to a peer-reviewed academic journal

3. Presentations: 2016 AIR Annual Forum, 2015 Association for the Study of Higher Education (ASHE) Annual Meeting

Disseminate results:

Describe how you will disseminate the results of this research.

(Note: Costs of travel to meetings should be calculated on the budget page.)

The results of this study will be disseminated to academic, practitioner, and federal government audiences. First, the research findings from this study

will be submitted for publication in one of the following top tier educational journals: American Educational Research Journal, Journal of Higher

Education, or Research in Higher Education. In addition to presenting my findings at the 2016 AIR Annual Forum, I would also like to present at the

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Annual Conference of the Association for the Study of Higher Education (ASHE). Further, a research report will be developed and shared with the

American School Counselor Association (ASCA), the Council for Accreditation of Counseling and Related Educational Programs (CACREP), and the Office

of Secondary Education at the U.S. Department of Education.

IRB Statement

Statement of Institutional Review Board approval or exemption (limit 250 words):

As part of the proposal, a statement outlining a plan for Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval is required. The statement should outline the applicant’s

timeline and plan for submitting the proposal to an IRB or explain why IRB approval is not necessary. Final IRB action is not necessary prior to submitting

the application.

This dissertation study will be considered "exempt" research. I will submit a "Request for Exemption" application to the Institutional Review Board at

North Carolina State University. This exemption application will be submitted to IRB by the end of March 2015.

Restricted Datasets

Statement of use of restricted datasets (limit 250 words):

Applicants should provide a statement indicating whether the proposed research will require use of restricted datasets. If restricted datasets will be used,

the plan for acquiring the appropriate license should be described. Review the requirements for restricted use licenses at the NCES and NSF websites.

If restricted datasets will not be used, leave this text box blank and click Save and Continue.

This proposed research will require the restricted-use HSLS:09 data. My advisor, Paul Umbach, has already applied for the restricted-use license and will

have the data soon. Students are not able to apply directly for a restricted-use data license. I April 2015, Paul Umbach will sponsor me by submitting an

application for a license. I will be considered an authorized user on his license.

Biographical Sketch(es)

Biographical sketch (limit 750 words):

Ashley Clayton is a Ph.D. candidate in the Educational Research and Policy Analysis program at North Carolina State University with a specialization in

Higher Education Administration. After completing her Bachelor’s degree at Virginia Tech in 2005, she served as an Admissions Advisor in the Office of

Undergraduate Admissions for two years. Desiring to further her career in higher education, Ashley earned a M.S. in Higher Education Administration

from Florida International University in 2009. During her time at FIU she served as a graduate assistant in the Career Services Office and Pre-College

Programs Office. In 2009, she accepted a position as the Academic/Career Coordinator of Upward Bound at Roanoke College, where she assisted first-

generation high school students with college applications and enrollment. After working with Upward Bound for several years, she enrolled full-time in

NC State’s Higher Education program in 2012. Ashley currently holds a graduate research assistantship in the Department of Leadership, Policy, and

Adult & Higher Education, where she assists faculty members on various research projects. She also serves as an Editorial Assistant for the Journal of

Higher Education.

Ashley has had a high level of quantitative training during doctoral studies. She has taken a foundational research course and both required levels of the

applied quantitative methods series. Last year, she took an advanced quantitative course on quasi-experimental methods, where she learned about

propensity score matching, inverse probability weighting, fixed effects, and regression-discontinuity techniques. She is currently taking a data

management course, where she is learning strategies for effectively working with large-scale quantitative data for educational research. The topics

covered in this course include: data cleaning, recoding and checking, merging and reshaping data, writing programs and macros to reduce errors, and

presenting descriptive data through tables and graphs. Given Ashley’s training in quantitative methods, she has tutored several doctoral-level students

in quantitative methods. This semester, Ashley was selected by the Associate Dean of the College of Education to serve as a Teaching Assistant for the

doctoral-level regression course.

During her three years at NC State, Ashley has collaborated with several faculty members on research projects and papers. She has worked as a

graduate research assistant for Drs. Andrew McEachin, Stephen Porter, and Paul Umbach. She has worked with her advisor, Paul Umbach, on several

research projects examining the effects of pre-college initiatives and remediation. Further she has collaborated with Stephen Porter on research that

examines the prevalence and implementation of field experiments in higher education. Her work with Andrew McEachin explores the effects of required

8th grade Algebra on several K-12 outcomes. Throughout these projects, Ashley gained significant experience working with large-scale datasets, writing

research papers, and presenting at national conferences. In the past three years, she has presented her research at the annual conferences of the

Association of Institutional Research (AIR), Association for the Study of Higher Education (ASHE), and the Association for Education Finance and Policy

(AEFP).

Ashley has substantial experience working with large datasets and national data from the National Center for Education Statistics. She has worked on

several projects where she has cleaned the data and run the analyses. Ashley has worked with several surveys from the Integrated Postsecondary Data

System (IPEDS) to examine the effects of North Carolina’s College Application Week on several institutional admissions outcomes. This project involved

merging, appending, and cleaning the various IPEDS surveys across several years. Recently she worked on a project using the Educational Longitudinal

Study, which examines the effects of college remediation on educational and labor market outcomes. Both of these papers have been presented at

national conferences in the past year. In addition to these projects using national data, she also has experience working with student-level data for the

University of North Carolina System and will be leading a project this spring that explores the effect of remediation at a single community college using

a regression-discontinuity approach. Ashley has also started working with the publicly available data from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009

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(HSLS:09) for her dissertation research. She ran some descriptive statistics and exploratory analyses to prepare for her dissertation proposal in March

2015. These experiences have given her valuable applied data analysis skills and made her proficient at handling issues related to large-scale national

survey data, such as weighting, missing data, and design effects.

Budget

• Dissertation Grant Budget Form - Ashley Clayton

Funding History

Funding history (limit 250 words):

A statement of prior, current, and pending funding for the proposed research from all sources is required. The statement should also include a history of

all prior funding from AIR to any of the PIs for any activity. Funding from other sources will not disqualify the application but may be considered in the

funding decision.

I have applied for two other dissertation grants and will be notified about the awards in the next two months.

I have applied for the following (pending funding):

1. AERA Dissertation Grant (up to $20,000) - awards announced in March 2015

2. NC State College of Education Dissertation Support Grant (up to $1,500) - awards announced in April 2015

Dissertation Advisor Letter of Support

• Umbach Letter of Support - Clayton

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! 1

Project Description - Appendix

!

!

Table 1

HSLS:09 Variables of Interest and Collection Timeline

HSLS:09 Data Collection Waves

Base Year First Follow-up Update

Date of Survey 2009 (Fall) 2012 (Spring) 2013 (June – December)

Grade in School 9

th grade (fall

semester)

11th

grade (spring

semester)

Summer/Fall after

senior year of high

school

Variables

Covariates:

Student-level

covariates

High school-

level

covariates

Treatment variables:

Treatment 1 – school

has counselor

designated for college

applications

Treatment 2 – school

has counselor

designated for college

selection

Outcome Variables:

Outcome 1 – number of

college applications

Outcome 2 – FAFSA

completion

Outcome 3 –

postsecondary

enrollment

!

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! 2

Table 2

School-level Covariates

Variable Name Variable Label File Component Covariate Category

X1LOCALE X1 School locale (urbanicity) BY school-level

composites School Demographics

X1REGION X1 School geographic region BY school-level

composites School Demographics

X1CENDIV X1 School census geographic division BY school-level

composites School Demographics

X1FREELUNCH X1 Grade 9 percent free lunch-

categorical

BY school-level

composites School Demographics

X1REPEAT9TH X1 Percent of 9th graders repeating

9th grade

BY school-level

composites School Demographics

X1SCHAMIND X1 Percent of students in school that

are American Indian

BY school-level

composites School Demographics

X1SCHASIAN X1 Percent of students in school that

are Asian

BY school-level

composites School Demographics

X1SCHBLACK X1 Percent of students in school that

are Black

BY school-level

composites School Demographics

X1SCHHISP X1 Percent of students in school that

are Hispanic/Latino/Latina

BY school-level

composites School Demographics

X1SCHWHITE X1 Percent of students in school that

are White

BY school-level

composites School Demographics

A1ADA A1 A19 Average daily attendance

percentage for high school students

BY administrator

instrument School Demographics

A1AYPYR A1 A23 Year of AYP improvement as

of 09-10 school year

BY administrator

instrument School Demographics

A1CONFLICT A1 E18A Frequency of physical

conflicts among students at this school

BY administrator

instrument School Demographics

A1DRUGUSE A1 E18D Frequency of student illegal

drug use at this school

BY administrator

instrument School Demographics

A1ALCOHOL A1 E18E Frequency of students use of

alcohol while at school

BY administrator

instrument School Demographics

A1GANG A1 E18N Frequency of student gang

activities at this school

BY administrator

instrument School Demographics

A1RESOURCES A1 E17J Lack of teacher resources and

materials is a problem at this school

BY administrator

instrument School Resources

A1G9TUTOR A1 A26H Offers tutoring to assist

struggling 9th graders

BY administrator

instrument School Resources

A1ONCLCAPAB A1 D01M School offers Calculus AP

(AB) on-site

BY administrator

instrument School Resources

A1ONCLCAPIB A1 D01O School offers Calculus IB

on-site

BY administrator

instrument School Resources

C1CASELOAD C1 A03 Average caseload for school's

counselors

BY counselor

instrument School Resources

TOTALREV Total school revenue from federal,

state, and local levels Common Core of Data School Resources

!

Note: BY refers to the 2009 Base Year survey

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! 3

Table 3

Student-level Covariates

Variable Name Variable Label File Component Covariate Category

S1SEX S1 A01 9th grader's sex BY student instrument Student

Demographics

S1HISPANIC S1 A02 9th grader is

Hispanic/Latino/Latina BY student instrument

Student

Demographics

S1HISPOR S1 A03 9th grader's

Hispanic/Latino/Latina origin BY student instrument

Student

Demographics

S1WHITE S1 A04A 9th grader is White BY student instrument Student

Demographics

S1BLACK S1 A04B 9th grader is

Black/African American BY student instrument

Student

Demographics

S1ASIAN S1 A04C 9th grader is Asian BY student instrument Student

Demographics

S1PACISLE S1 A04D 9th grader is Native

Hawaiian/Pacific Islander BY student instrument

Student

Demographics

S1AMINDIAN S1 A04E 9th grader is American

Indian or Alaska Native BY student instrument

Student

Demographics

S1ASIANOR S1 A05 9th grader's Asian origin BY student instrument Student

Demographics

S1LANG1ST

S1 A07 First language 9th grader

learned to speak is English,

Spanish, or other

BY student instrument Student

Demographics

S1MOMTALKCLG S1 E09A 9th grader talked to

mother about going to college BY student instrument

Cultural and Social

Capital

S1DADTALKCLG S1 E09B 9th grader talked to

father about going to college BY student instrument

Cultural and Social

Capital

S1FRNDTLKCLG S1 E09C 9th grader talked to

friends about going to college BY student instrument

Cultural and Social

Capital

S1TCHTALKCLG S1 E09D 9th grader talked to

teacher about going to college BY student instrument

Cultural and Social

Capital

S1CNSLTLKCLG

S1 E09E 9th grader talked to

school counselor about going to

college

BY student instrument Cultural and Social

Capital

S1NOTALKCLG

S1 E09F 9th grader didn't talk to

these people about going to

college

BY student instrument Cultural and Social

Capital

S1PLAN

S1 F07 9th grader has put

together an education plan and/or

career plan

BY student instrument Cultural and Social

Capital

S1SURECLG

S1 G02 How sure 9th grader is

that he/she will go to college to

pursue a BA/BS

BY student instrument Cultural and Social

Capital

S1ABILITYBA

S1 G03 9th grader thinks he/she

has the ability to complete a

Bachelor's degree

BY student instrument Cultural and Social

Capital

S1BAAGE30

S1 G04 9th grader would be

disappointed if he/she didn't have

a BA/BS by age 30

BY student instrument Cultural and Social

Capital

Note: BY refers to the 2009 Base Year survey

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! 4

Table 3 Continued

Student-level Covariates

Note: BY refers to the 2009 Base Year survey

!

!

Variable Name Variable Label File Component Covariate Category

S1FYBA

S1 G05B 9th grader plans to

enroll in Bachelor's program in

1st year after HS

BY student instrument Cultural and Social

Capital

P1INCOME P1 C17 Household income in

2008-continuous form BY parent instrument Supply of Resources

P1INCOMECAT P1 C18 Household income in

2008-categorical form BY parent instrument Supply of Resources

P1HIDEG1 P1 C01 Parent 1's highest degree

earned BY parent instrument Supply of Resources

X1MOMEDU X1 Mother's/female guardian's

highest level of education BY student-level composites Supply of Resources

X1MOMEMP X1 Mother/female guardian's

employment status BY student-level composites Supply of Resources

X1DADEDU X1 Father's/male guardian's

highest level of education BY student-level composites Supply of Resources

X1DADEMP X1 Father/male guardian's

employment status BY student-level composites Supply of Resources

P1HELPPAY

P1 F19 Family plans to help 9th

grader pay for postsecondary

education

BY parent instrument Supply of Resources

P1PREPPAY

P1 F20 9th grader's grade when

family began financial

preparation for education

BY parent instrument Supply of Resources

S1M8

S1 B06 Most advanced math

course taken by 9th grader in the

8th grade

BY student instrument Demand for Higher

Education

S1S8

S1 B08 Most advanced science

course taken by student in the 8th

grade

BY student instrument Demand for Higher

Education

S1GOODGRADES S1 E01E Getting good grades is

important to 9th grader BY student instrument

Demand for Higher

Education

S1PSAT S1 F09A 9th grader has taken or

plans to take the PSAT BY student instrument

Demand for Higher

Education

S1SAT S1 F09B 9th grader has taken or

plans to take the SAT BY student instrument

Demand for Higher

Education

S1ACT S1 F09C 9th grader has taken or

plans to take the ACT BY student instrument

Demand for Higher

Education

S1AP

S1 F09D 9th grader has

taken/plans to take an Advanced

Placement (AP) test

BY student instrument Demand for Higher

Education

S1IBTEST

S1 F09E 9th grader has

taken/plans to take International

Baccalaureate (IB) test

BY student instrument Demand for Higher

Education

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! 5

Figure 1. Perna’s (2006) multilevel conceptual model of student college choice.

Social, economic, & policy context (layer 4)

Demographic characteristics

Economic characteristics

Public policy characteristics

Higher education context (layer 3)

Marketing and recruitment

Location

Institutional characteristics

School and community context (layer 2)

Availability of resources

Types of resources

Structural supports and barriers

Habitus (layer 1)

Demographic characteristics

Gender

Race/ethnicity

Cultural capital

Cultural knowledge

Value of college attainment

Social capital

Information about college

Assistance with college processes

Demand for higher education Expected benefits

Academic preparation Monetary

Academic achievement Non-monetary College

Choice

Supply of resources Expected costs

Family income College costs

Financial aid Foregone earnings

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! 6

Figure 2. College application model.

Figure 3. FAFSA completion model.

Figure 4. College enrollment model.!

!

S3CLASSESi = β0 + β1(COLLEGECOUNSELORi) + δi + εit

The variable, S3CLASSESi is the predicted outcome variable for postsecondary enrollment for

each individual in the analysis. This regression equation will capture the treatment effect in

the coefficient of the treatment variable, COLLEGECOUNSELOR. This analysis will also

control for state fixed effects (δi). The error term, εit, captures all other factors which influence

the dependent variable that are not accounted for in the model. Lastly, weights are added to

the model to properly weight each observation.

S3APPFAFASAi = β0 + β1(COLLEGECOUNSELORi) + δi + εit

The variable, S3APPFAFASAi is the predicted outcome variable for FAFSA completion for

each individual in the analysis. Importantly, this regression equation will capture the

treatment effect in the coefficient of the treatment variable, COLLEGECOUNSELOR. This

analysis will also control for state fixed effects (δi). The error term, εit, captures all other

factors, which influence the dependent variable that are not accounted for in the model. The

previously calculated inverse probability weights are added to the model.

ln(S3CLGAPPNUM i) = β0 + β1(COLLEGECOUNSELORi) + δi

where the predicted S3CLGAPPNUM i is the predicted number of applications for an

individual with the COLLEGECOUNSELOR treatment. The regression coefficient 1

indicates if the COLLEGECOUNSELOR treatment has an effect on the number of college

applications completed. This analysis will control for state fixed effects δi to reduce selection

bias by capturing the effect of unobserved heterogeneity that does not vary over time (e.g.,

demographics). Lastly, weights are added to the model to properly weight each observation

based on the inverse probability weights that were calculated in the first two steps of the

analysis.

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Note

18,000.00

1,500.00

500.00

20,000.00

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North Carolina State University is a land- Department of Leadership, Policy

grant university and a constituent institution and Adult and Higher Education

of The University of North Carolina College of Education

Campus Box 7801/300 Poe Hall Raleigh, NC 27695-7801 919.515.6238 (graduate office) 919-513-3706 (department head office)

919-515-6305 (fax) http://ced.ncsu.edu/ahe

March 17, 2015

AIR Research and Dissertation Grants Program

1435 E. Piedmont Drive, Suite 211

Tallahassee, FL 32308

To Whom It May Concern:

It is my pleasure to recommend Ashley Clayton for the AIR Dissertation Grant. I have

known Ashley since she joined our doctoral program in Educational Evaluation and Policy

Analysis nearly three years ago. I currently serve as her dissertation chair, advisor, and

supervisor in her role as my Research Assistant and as Editorial Assistant for the Journal of

Higher Education, where I am Senior Associate Editor. Ashley also has collaborated with me

on several research projects, which have resulted in a publication, two papers currently under

review, and several national conference presentations. Through these experiences, I have had

the opportunity to get to know Ashley’s skills, knowledge, and abilities, and I believe she is

uniquely qualified for the grant. In addition, as the chair of her dissertation, I am in a unique

position to be able to assess her work and the impact that it and her future research endeavors

are likely to have on the field of education. I offer four specific reasons why I believe she is

deserving of your dissertation grant.

First, Ashley possesses the intellectual ability, theoretical grounding, and analytical skills

required to be a successful scholar. Simply put, Ashley is among the top 5% of all graduate

students with whom I have worked since becoming a faculty member more than 11 years ago.

She is well read in the field of education, economics, and sociology and uses this knowledge

as a lens for her research. She is able to integrate and apply theory to a broad range of social

issues. She also has very strong quantitative skills and is adroit in using them to explore

research problems. She has excelled in our required quantitative methods sequence and has

taken several advanced methods courses and knows advanced techniques such as structural

equation modeling, multilevel modeling, and quasi-experimental methods. Because she has

such strong quantitative skills, she was recently asked to serve as a teaching assistant for our

doctoral-level regression course.

Second, Ashley has extensive experience working with large datasets and data from the

National Center for Education Statistics using advanced quantitative techniques. For example,

for one of the papers we have under review, she helped me run a series of panel models using

NCES’ Integrated Postsecondary Data System to evaluate North Carolina’s College

Application Week. She also is working with me on a paper, which we presented at February’s

AEFP Conference, where we use propensity score analysis and NCES’ Educational

Longitudinal Study to explore the effects of college remediation on labor market outcomes

and social mobility. She also has begun digging into the data she will be using for her

NC STATE UNIVERSITY

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2

dissertation, the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09), doing some exploratory

analyses on the publicly available data to prepare for the dissertation proposal hearing.

Finally, she is leading a project where we are employing regression discontinuity using data

from a single community college to understand the effects of remediation on labor market

outcomes. Her role in these projects has ranged from cleaning the data, to running the

analyses, and to leading the entire project. These experiences have given her valuable applied

data analysis skills and made her adept at handling issues related to large-scale national

survey data, such as weighting, missing data, and design effects.

Third, Ashley’s current research, including what she is doing for her dissertation, is likely to

contribute a great deal to our understanding of the role high school counselors whose role is

college advising has in the college choice process. In recent years, to fill the gap in college

advising that high school students do not get from guidance counselors, several states (e.g.,

North Carolina, Michigan, Virginia, Texas) have developed programs like the National

College Advising Corps that place counselors in schools with the sole purpose of providing

college counseling. The federal government has also jumped in with programs like TRIO.

Despite the widespread proliferation of college counselors, we know surprisingly little about

their effects on college access. For her dissertation, she intends to use NCES’ High School

Longitudinal Study to explore how college counselors affect college going.

I believe this study is important for several reasons. First, because there has been a substantial

and growing investment in college advising programs, this study will be the first to provide

valuable information about their effectiveness. Second, she is using the richest, most current

nationally representative data set available. The HSLS:09 is the latest iteration of high school

to college (to work) panel studies from NCES, and, for the first time, the survey specifically

includes questions about counselors dedicated to college advising. Third, her work is firmly

grounded in previous research, which spans K-12 and higher education, and theory from

sociology and economics. Ashley’s ability to span sectors and disciplines greatly enhances

and strengthens the study. Finally, she employs a sound identification strategy. She

recognizes, in an ideal world she would randomly assign college counselors to schools.

Clearly, this is not practical in this case. However, in order to ameliorate bias introduced by

selection and to maintain a nationally representative sample, she is employing inverse

probability weighting, a form of propensity score analysis.

Fourth, and perhaps most important, this study is laying the groundwork for Ashley’s long-

term research agenda. She is asking important questions about access to college and policies

that will enhance the likelihood that high school students will go to college. It is worth noting

that Ashley is working on two papers related to her dissertation research. One uses a series of

panel models to analyze the effects of the North Carolina Advising Corps on college

readiness. The second is a qualitative study that examines the role college counselors have in

public high schools. Both of these studies nicely complement the work she is doing for her

dissertation.

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3

What is likely to make her scholarship have an impact on policy and future research is that

her experiences, knowledge, theoretical grounding, and quantitative skills allow her to bridge

secondary and postsecondary education. Because Ashley is able to span these boundaries

adeptly, her research will go a long way in aiding our understanding of the conditions that aid

or inhibit the educational transitions of marginalized populations and will have important

social policy implications. I look forward to seeing the important contributions she will make

to the field of education.

It is without hesitation that I offer my full support of Ashley’s application for the AIR

Dissertation Grant. She successfully defended her dissertation proposal on March 4, 2015,

putting her on schedule to complete her dissertation in Spring 2016. If you need additional

information or have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Sincerely,

Paul D. Umbach

Professor of Higher Education and Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis

North Carolina State University

Department of Leadership, Policy, and Adult and Higher Education

300 Poe Hall, Campus Box 7801

Raleigh, NC 27695-7801

Phone: 919-515-9366

E-mail: [email protected]


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