Asia Oil & Gas - jrj.com.cnDuring the week, stronger diesel ($15.6/bbl, ... Fig 5 Asia Refining &...

Please refer to the important disclosures and analyst certification on inside back cover of this document, or on our website www.macquarie.com.au/disclosures.

ASIA

Inside Cracking Times – Men At Work – Business As Usual 1 Asia Oil & Gas Comparables Valuations 6 Global Oil & Gas Comparables Valuation 8 Crude Oil Price & Differentials 10 Asia Refining Margins & Cracks 12 Singapore Oil Product Inventories 14 Asia Petchems Summary 15 Macro 16 China Oil Demand, Production & Imports 18 China Gas Demand, Production & Imports 22 China Petchems Demand 23 Asia Total Product Demand 24 Asia Diesel Demand 25 Asia Gasoline Demand 26 Asia Fuel Oil Demand 27 US Oil Demand & Inventories 28 Global Oil Supply-Demand 29 China Gas Supply-Demand 30 Global LNG Supply-Demand 31

Company Price Target

(LCY) % upside/ downside

2013E PE

Most Preferred CNOOC (883 HK) 19.0 18% 8.1 NewOcean (342 HK) 6.7 27% 10.2 Petro-king (2178 HK) 7.2 99% 16.9 Anton (3337 HK) 8.2 82% 17.7 Least Preferred COSL (2883 HK) 18.0 -10% 11.9 FPCC (6505 TT) 74.0 -6% 22.1 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie research, September 2013. Prices as on 13-Sept. Macquarie Capital Securities Limited James Hubbard, CFA +852 3922 1226 [email protected] Aditya Suresh, CFA +852 3922 1265 [email protected] Macquarie Securities (Thailand) Limited Trevor Buchinski, CFA +66 2 694 7829 [email protected] Macquarie Capital Securities India (Pvt) Ltd Jal Irani +91 22 6720 4080 [email protected] Macquarie Capital Securities Limited, Taiwan Branch Corinne Jian, CFA +886 2 2734 7522 [email protected] Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited Polina Diyachkina +81 3 3512 7886 [email protected]

16 September 2013

Asia Oil & Gas Cracking Times – Men At Work – Business As Usual 3QTD China refining margins at a 10-quarter high China’s NDRC raised gasoline/diesel prices by Rmb90/85/t effective 14-Sept. Consequently China refining margins increases by US$0.8/bbl to US$6.4/bbl. 3QTD margins have averaged US$6.4/bbl (US$2.3/bbl in 2Q, +180% q/q), and are at a 10-quarter high. We remain buyers of Sinopec into 3Q results in end-October.

Singapore refining remains muted Singapore complex refining margins saw a small w/w rebound to US$2.3/bbl (+$0.3/bbl w/w), but margins are still at seasonally adjusted 5Y lows. During the week, stronger diesel ($15.6/bbl, +$1/bbl w/w) and fuel oil (-$17.2/bbl, +$1.4/bbl w/w) cracks more than offset the weakness in gasoline cracks ($8.0/bbl, -$2.4/bbl w/w).

China OFS – A strong 2H ahead China will invest 80 billion yuan ($13.1 billion, +7% y/y) in oil and gas exploration in 2013 as it tries to boost energy supplies and reduce its dependence on energy imports, according to Xinhua. While this is in-line with our estimates, it is a positive for China OFS sentiment as the market has been concerned that China upstream capex will be cut, following the recent PetroChina senior exec resignations. In addition, post results we see no fundamental change to our bullish ‘decade of structural growth’ outlook – 1) industry activity remains strong, with sector revenues growing 32% y/y in 1H; 2) EBITDA margins improved by 300bps y/y despite higher competition due to positive operating leverage and migration to in-house downhole tools. We reiterate our Outperform ratings on Petroking, Anton, Hilong and SPT Energy, while we would avoid Honghua for company specific execution issues. (see Men at work, 9 Sept)

China OFS sector – no fundamental change to our bullish ‘decade of structural growth’ outlook

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, September 2013

0%

10%

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50%

60%

70%

Petro-king Honghua Sector Anton Hilong SPT

y/y EBITDA Growth

1H13A 2013-15E cagr

1H13: 46% avg y/y growth

[email protected] FIRST LAST 09/17/13 01:02:38 PM Hong Kong Highpower

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Macquarie Research Asia Oil & Gas

16 September 2013 2

Cracking Times – Men At Work – Business As Usual Brent prices retreated by $2.8/bbl w/w to average $112.3/bbl (still high) as the threat

of military action against Syria subsided during the week.

Singapore complex refining margins saw a small w/w rebound to US$2.3/bbl (+$0.3/bbl w/w), but margins are still at seasonally adjusted 5Y lows. During the week, stronger diesel ($15.6/bbl, +$1/bbl w/w) and fuel oil (-$17.2/bbl, +$1.4/bbl w/w) cracks more than offset the weakness in gasoline cracks ($8.0/bbl, -$2.4/bbl w/w).

China’s NDRC raised gasoline/diesel prices by Rmb90/85/t effective 14-Sept. Consequently China refining margins increases by US$0.8/bbl to US$6.4/bbl. 3QTD margins have averaged US$6.4/bbl (US$2.3/bbl in 2Q, +180% q/q), and are at a 10-quarter high. Into the year-end we maintain our long Sinopec, short PetroChina preference.

Petrochemical NCC margins improved by 6% w/w to US$222/t, but margins remain at the bottom end of the 5Y range.

Fig 1 Global crude prices – Brent remains at elevated levels Fig 2 Singapore GRMs – remains at 2-year lows

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013 Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2013

Fig 3 MacQ China GRM – Q3 at a 10-quarter high Fig 4 Petchem NCC margins – up 6% w/w, but remains at the bottom of 5Y range

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013 Source: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2013

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NCC Margin Range 2007-12 Avg 2012 2013

Key Macquarie Research

China OFS – Men At Work – Business As

Usual (9 Sept)

Global IOC Order of Merit – Buy CNOOC

(14 Aug)

China Oils – Free Cash Flow Scenarios –

The Good, The Bad, And The

Unsustainable (21 May)

China onshore oil services – A decade of

structural growth ahead (22 April)

Asia petchems – A brighter 2013 (31 Jan)

CNOOC-Nexen – What’s the big deal (24

Sept)

Offshore China – A glass still three-

quarters full (30 Jul)

The Chinese NGV (R)Evolution (22 May)




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16 September 2013 3

Fig 5 Asia Refining & Petchem Margins Summary

Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2013

Macquarie ResearchAsia Refining Summary

13-Sep 06-Sep 30-Aug 23-Aug Jul-13 Jul-12 Y-o-Y % 3Q13TD 2Q13 %chg 2013TD 2012 %chgCrude Price & DifferentialsBrent ($/bbl) 112.3 115.1 115.7 111.3 107.7 103.1 4% 110.1 103.1 7% 108.6 112.0 -3%Dubai ($/bbl) 109.0 111.1 110.6 106.9 103.4 99.2 4% 105.9 100.8 5% 104.9 108.9 -4%WTI ($/bbl) 108.3 108.5 108.3 105.5 104.6 87.9 19% 106.0 94.2 13% 98.2 94.1 4%Duri ($/bbl) 107.9 109.7 108.2 104.3 101.9 108.9 -6% 100.6 99.7 1% 102.5 113.8 -10%Cinta ($/bbl) 110.2 111.4 108.9 105.1 102.7 108.7 -6% 101.6 101.1 0% 104.8 115.2 -9%Duri - Brent ($/bbl) (4.4) (5.4) (7.5) (7.0) (5.8) 5.7 NM (5.6) (3.4) -39% (4.2) 1.8 NMArab Light - Heavy ($/bbl) 4.6 4.6 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.4 36% 3.5 3.5 -1% 3.8 3.1 24%Brent - WTI ($/bbl) 4.1 6.7 7.4 5.8 3.2 15.3 -79% 4.1 8.9 -54% 10.5 17.8 -41%GRMMacquarie China GRM ($/bbl) 5.7 6.6 6.6 7.5 6.0 (2.0) NM 6.4 2.3 182% 4.3 1.5 180%Macquarie China GRM (RMB/t) 268 307 310 349 283 (95) NM 298 106 181% 204 74 175%Singapore Complex GRM ($/bbl) 2.3 2.0 2.0 3.1 7.5 7.6 -1% 5.0 6.4 -22% 6.8 7.3 -8%Korea Complex GRM ($/bbl) 2.3 1.4 1.6 2.8 5.8 6.0 -2% 4.1 4.9 -16% 5.4 5.9 -9%China Refined Product CracksGasoline ($/bbl) 13.6 14.7 13.2 14.6 10.9 (1.1) NM 12.9 4.9 163% 8.6 3.7 131%Diesel ($/bbl) 25.0 26.1 24.1 25.6 21.5 8.9 142% 23.9 15.6 54% 19.6 14.7 34%Fuel Oil ($/bbl) (38.2) (35.6) (25.9) (25.3) (17.7) (34.0) 92% (26.7) (25.5) -5% (25.3) (28.6) 13%Singapore Refined Product CracksGasoline ($/bbl) 8.0 10.4 9.1 8.8 18.4 14.4 28% 13.5 14.6 -8% 15.5 14.6 6%Naphtha ($/bbl) (4.7) (5.7) (6.3) (6.0) (5.9) (8.4) 42% (5.8) (7.7) 34% (5.6) (6.0) 7%Diesel ($/bbl) 15.6 14.6 14.9 16.6 20.0 17.8 12% 18.0 16.8 7% 18.2 17.4 5%Jet Fuel ($/bbl) 16.8 15.2 16.1 17.1 17.6 18.4 -4% 17.3 15.3 13% 17.7 18.0 -2%LPG ($/bbl) (32.1) (37.7) (38.1) (36.6) (34.0) (38.0) 12% (35.0) (36.0) 3% (34.6) (31.3) -10%Fuel Oil ($/bbl) (17.2) (18.6) (17.6) (14.9) (11.0) (4.0) -64% (13.8) (5.9) -57% (9.6) (5.2) -46%

Week Month Quarter Year

Macquarie ResearchAsia Petrochemicals Summary(US$/tonne)

13-Sep 6-Sep % WoW 3Q13TD 2Q13 3Q12 % QoQ % YoY 2013TD 2012 % YoYPetchem SpreadsNCC Margin 222 208 6% 220 274 240 -20% -8% 254 250 1%Ethylene-Naphtha 313 298 5% 330 359 279 -8% 18% 356 275 29%Propylene-Naphtha 509 491 3% 503 475 441 6% 14% 446 411 9%LDPE-Naphtha 600 568 5% 588 522 332 13% 77% 506 360 41%HDPE-Naphtha 494 471 5% 516 529 390 -3% 32% 499 396 26%PP-Naphtha 581 560 4% 584 607 515 -4% 13% 584 492 19%LDPE-Ethylene 267 252 6% 240 144 35 66% 585% 132 67 97%HDPE-Ethylene 156 148 5% 161 146 87 10% 85% 118 97 22%PP-Propylene 73 69 6% 81 132 75 -39% 9% 138 81 70%Benzene-Naphtha 356 328 8% 340 442 275 -23% 24% 409 274 50%PX-Naphtha 543 545 -0% 561 582 527 -4% 6% 605 569 6%Butadiene-Naphtha -64 -111 42% -188 558 850 nmf -122% 319 1145 -72%PTA-PX 69 61 12% 83 131 47 -37% 78% 105 82 28%MEG Margin 298 305 -2% 283 225 245 26% 16% 268 266 1%PP-Naphtha 581 560 4% 584 607 515 -4% 13% 584 492 19%ABS integrated margin 448 465 -4% 524 366 379 43% 38% 401 303 33%PS integrated margin 495 501 -1% 524 419 263 25% 99% 430 257 67%PVC-EDC 670 678 -1% 683 646 692 6% -1% 674 652 3%

PriceNaphtha 959 968 -1% 920 863 917 7% 0% 919 949 -3%Ethylene 1272 1266 0% 1250 1222 1196 2% 4% 1275 1224 4%Propylene 1468 1460 1% 1423 1338 1358 6% 5% 1365 1360 0%Benzene 1315 1297 1% 1260 1305 1193 -3% 6% 1328 1223 9%Butadiene 895 858 4% 733 1422 1767 -48% -59% 1238 2094 -41%PX 1502 1513 -1% 1481 1445 1444 2% 3% 1524 1518 0%PTA 1075 1075 0% 1075 1099 1014 -2% 6% 1127 1099 2%MEG 1087 1090 -0% 1058 983 987 8% 7% 1059 1025 3%LDPE 1559 1537 1% 1508 1385 1249 9% 21% 1425 1309 9%HDPE 1453 1440 1% 1436 1392 1307 3% 10% 1418 1345 5%PP 1540 1528 1% 1505 1471 1433 2% 5% 1503 1441 4%PVC 980 980 0% 979 942 955 4% 3% 974 946 3%EDC 310 302 3% 296 296 263 -0% 13% 300 294 2%ABS 1947 1945 0% 1945 1924 1961 1% -1% 1965 1998 -2%SM 1868 1872 -0% 1791 1636 1551 9% 15% 1699 1492 14%PS 1903 1892 1% 1882 1805 1552 4% 21% 1849 1578 17%

Week Quarter Year



16 September 2013 4

Fig 6 Asia Oils 1W Share Performance Fig 7 Asia Oils 2013 Share Performance

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013 Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013

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Oil IndiaHPCL

NewOceanBPCLIOCL

ONGCSK Innovation

S-OilPTT Global

COSLAban Offshore

MSCI Asia (ex Japan)NPC

Esso ThailandHilong

JX HoldingsRIL

AntonCNOOC

Petronet LNGSinopecThai Oil

PTTFPC

GS HoldingsPTT E&P

PetrochinaFCFC

MIESPT EnergyInpex Corp

Japan PetroleumHonghua

Petro-kingKunlun

BrentBangchak

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Asia Oils 1W Performance

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BrentCairn IndiaInpex Corp

MSCI Asia (ex Japan)SPT Energy

CNOOCSinopecThai Oil

IOCLBPCL

SK InnovationGS Holdings

PetrochinaS-Oil

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Asia Oils 2013 YTD Performance



16 September 2013 5

Macquarie Research China OFS – Men at work – Business as usual (James Hubbard/Aditya Suresh, 9 Sept): China’s OFS sector posted a robust but in-line set of 1H results, with the key exception being Honghua which was markedly weaker than expectations. Post results we see no fundamental change to our bullish ‘decade of structural growth’ outlook – 1) industry activity remains strong - sector avg revenues grew 32% y/y in 1H; 2) EBITDA margins improved by 300bps y/y despite higher competition due to positive operating leverage and migration to in-house downhole tools. We reiterate our Outperform ratings on Petroking, Anton, Hilong and SPT Energy.

China oil & gas – Shale pragmatism (James Hubbard, 12 Sept): A China Ministry of Land and Resources (MOLR) official stated that the tender of the 3rd shale gas licensing round will likely be delayed (source: International Oil Daily). A further delay to the third shale gas licensing round will not surprise anyone that follows the sector closely. We believe the misguided ‘shale hype and hope’ has already been thoroughly shaken out of expectations and the sector looks very attractively valued versus compelling fundamentals; 25-40% EPS growth on average over the next two years and ROE in the high teens. Our order of preference is Petroking, Anton, Hilong and SPT (we would happily buy a basket of all four) on which we have Outperform ratings.

India oil & gas – Hurrah, for one less gatekeeper (Jal Irani, 13 Sept): The Oil ministry announced that firms would no longer have to seek a “Declaration of Commerciality” for new discoveries in a producing area from DGH. Discoveries on the fringe of viability can be made commercial through treating them as a portfolio along with existing, more viable ones. Prime beneficiaries are upstream players Cairn India (Rajasthan block has multiple discoveries awaiting DoC) & RIL (8 discoveries in KGD6 are stuck).



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Macquarie R

esearch A

sia Oil &

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16 Septem

ber 2013 6

Asia Oil & Gas Comparables Valuations Fig 8 Asia Oil and Gas Comparables Valuation

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013. Share prices as on 13-September, 2013.

Company Local B'berg Mcap Reco. Price Target UpsideCurr Ticker (US$ bn) (local) Price 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E

HANG SENG INDEX 1,772.3 22,915 10.9 x 10.9 xHK/CHINA AVG 417.4 +42.5% 17.5 x 7.0 x 11.6 x 11.7 x 1.7 x 1.4 x 2.4% 2.5% -8.0% 0.4% 11.5% 12.0% 15.6% 13.1%PetroChina HKD 857 HK 204.6 Neutral 8.7 8.50 -2.0% 4.5 x 4.0 x 9.6 x 8.5 x 1.1 x 1.0 x 4.8% 5.3% -6.3% -1.2% 9.5% 9.7% 25.7% 27.7%Sinopec HKD 386 HK 90.4 Outperform 6.1 6.50 +7.3% 4.0 x 3.5 x 8.2 x 6.7 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 4.5% 5.2% -5.2% -3.4% 10.4% 10.2% 26.9% 29.5%CNOOC HKD 883 HK 92.6 Outperform 16.1 19.00 +18.2% 3.7 x 3.4 x 8.1 x 7.4 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 3.1% 3.3% -12.5% 5.7% 16.8% 14.9% 24.9% 20.5%COSL HKD 2883 HK 11.7 Neutral 20.1 18.00 -10.4% 8.8 x 8.2 x 11.9 x 11.1 x 1.9 x 1.7 x 1.6% 1.7% 1.4% 7.1% 9.9% 9.8% 33.9% 26.5%Kunlun HKD 135 HK 11.6 Outperform 11.2 17.00 +51.8% 5.1 x 4.4 x 12.3 x 10.4 x 1.8 x 1.6 x 2.3% 2.7% -8.0% 15.8% 12.7% 13.5% 21.0% 6.8%MIE HKD 1555 HK 0.6 Outperform 1.7 2.80 +62.8% 3.5 x 3.2 x 7.8 x 6.0 x 0.9 x 0.8 x 4.4% 1.1% -28.7% -4.4% 10.5% 11.0% 50.9% 48.5%NewOcean HKD 342 HK 1.0 Outperform 5.3 6.70 +27.4% 7.7 x 5.9 x 10.2 x 7.4 x 1.8 x 1.4 x 1.4% 1.7% -8.4% 1.3% 9.2% 11.0% 17.5% 14.5%Anton HKD 3337 HK 1.3 Outperform 4.5 8.20 +82.2% 11.6 x 9.1 x 17.7 x 13.7 x 3.3 x 2.8 x 1.9% 2.5% 1.9% 2.9% 16.6% 18.3% -2.4% -4.7%Honghua HKD 196 HK 1.0 Underperform 2.3 1.90 -17.4% 5.9 x 4.9 x 9.0 x 8.8 x 1.2 x 1.1 x 3.4% 3.5% -18.0% -7.6% 10.1% 9.4% 32.1% 36.7%SPT Energy HKD 1251 HK 0.7 Outperform 3.7 5.40 +44.4% 8.7 x 7.1 x 14.5 x 12.0 x 2.6 x 2.2 x 1.4% 1.7% 1.5% 2.1% 17.2% 18.4% -23.0% -21.2%Petro-king HKD 2178 HK 0.5 Outperform 3.6 7.20 +98.9% 11.3 x 8.7 x 16.9 x 12.8 x 1.8 x 1.5 x 0.0% 0.0% -10.5% 0.5% 13.0% 11.9% -16.4% -15.2%Hilong HKD 1623 HK 0.9 Outperform 4.0 6.00 +51.5% 9.0 x 6.5 x 12.7 x 9.5 x 2.0 x 1.6 x 1.9% 3.1% 0.7% 3.0% 14.3% 15.7% 12.7% 9.4%Green Dragon GBp GDG LN 0.6 Outperform 295.0 700.00 +137.3% 143.6 x 22.3 x nmf 37.8 x 1.0 x 0.8 x 0.0% 0.0% -11.3% -16.1% -0.1% 2.3% -0.8% -8.3%

BSE SENSEX INDEX 517.6 19,733 15.0 x 15.0 xINDIA AVG 113.5 +19.9% 7.1 x 6.3 x 11.4 x 8.5 x 1.2 x 1.1 x 2.8% 3.2% -19.3% -32.4% 12.0% 11.6% 36.9% 40.8%RIL INR RIL IN 44.5 Outperform 873.0 1,100.00 +26.0% 9.0 x 7.6 x 12.4 x 11.4 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 1.1% 1.2% 3.5% -4.4% 9.2% 9.3% 17.5% 19.2%ONGC INR ONGC IN 38.2 Outperform 282.7 360.00 +27.3% 4.5 x 4.0 x 10.2 x 8.7 x 1.6 x 1.7 x 3.4% 3.7% -4.8% 11.7% 14.9% 16.6% 0.5% -0.4%IOCL INR IOCL IN 8.9 Outperform 233.0 300.00 +28.8% 11.7 x 8.5 x 12.7 x 7.6 x 0.9 x 0.8 x 3.1% 5.2% -18.0% -22.7% 8.2% 9.7% 54.3% 61.9%Cairn India INR CAIR IN 9.7 Outperform 320.4 378.00 +18.0% 4.5 x 4.1 x 5.7 x 5.5 x 1.3 x 1.1 x 2.4% 2.9% 17.6% 10.4% 22.3% 21.2% -7.1% -19.4%GAIL INR GAIL IN 6.3 Outperform 313.8 390.00 +24.3% 6.4 x 6.3 x 8.8 x 8.8 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 3.6% 3.6% -0.6% -3.8% 11.9% 10.5% 23.5% 25.3%BPCL INR BPCL IN 3.5 Outperform 305.2 421.00 +38.0% 8.7 x 9.4 x 10.0 x 14.0 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 1.8% 2.1% -17.8% -34.2% 9.3% 8.0% 62.8% 65.7%HPCL INR HPCL IN 1.0 Outperform 186.9 255.00 +36.4% 4.0 x 2.8 x 27.6 x 6.7 x 0.5 x 0.4 x 5.3% 5.9% -123.7% 66.2% 4.4% 6.4% 77.5% 74.8%Petronet LNG INR PLNG IN 1.4 Underperform 118.6 96.00 -19.1% 7.4 x 6.8 x 7.6 x 9.7 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 2.5% 2.5% 10.5% -46.8% 18.6% 13.8% 23.1% 58.2%Aban Offshore INR ABAN IN 0.2 Neutral 223.0 222.00 -0.4% 7.8 x 7.4 x 7.7 x 3.8 x 0.3 x 0.3 x 1.6% 1.6% -40.8% -268.0% 9.0% 8.7% 79.8% 81.8%

SET INDEX 382.4 1,401 13.9 x 13.9 xTHAILAND AVG 66.5 +14.2% 6.5 x 5.4 x 10.3 x 8.6 x 1.7 x 1.5 x 3.8% 4.7% 2.4% 8.4% 12.4% 13.2% 24.6% 22.0%PTT THB PTT TB 30.0 Outperform 335.0 361.00 +7.8% 4.6 x 4.1 x 8.4 x 7.6 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 4.2% 4.6% -0.3% 8.8% 12.8% 13.2% 30.1% 25.8%PTT E&P THB PTTEP TB 21.1 Outperform 169.5 200.00 +18.0% 3.7 x 3.3 x 9.6 x 9.2 x 1.8 x 1.6 x 3.7% 3.8% 5.2% 6.5% 16.5% 15.8% 11.5% 6.7%PTT Global Chem THB PTTGC TB 10.1 Outperform 71.5 91.00 +27.3% 6.2 x 5.2 x 9.0 x 7.7 x 1.3 x 1.1 x 4.1% 5.4% 4.7% 15.4% 10.4% 11.9% 18.7% 9.2%Thai Oil THB TOP TB 3.8 Outperform 60.0 74.00 +23.3% 6.8 x 5.6 x 11.8 x 9.5 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 3.4% 4.7% -0.4% 9.1% 9.3% 9.6% 30.6% 26.4%Bangchak Petro. THB BCP TB 1.4 Underperform 32.8 27.00 -17.6% 6.5 x 5.4 x 10.0 x 7.8 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 4.2% 5.3% 1.3% 2.4% 11.5% 12.2% 13.7% 26.6%Siam Cement THB SCC TB 16.3 Outperform 432.0 545.00 +26.2% 11.5 x 9.0 x 13.0 x 9.7 x 2.9 x 2.5 x 3.5% 4.6% 3.8% 7.8% 13.6% 16.6% 43.0% 37.5%

NIKKEI INDEX 2,802.5 14,405 18.1 x 18.1 xJAPAN AVG 32.6 +30.9% 5.2 x 4.2 x 9.5 x 8.7 x 0.7 x 0.8 x 1.8% 2.1% -1.4% -13.9% 6.5% 6.8% 10.8% 23.9%Inpex Corp JPY 1605 JP 16.3 Outperform 455,000.0 670,000.0 +47.3% 2.1 x 1.8 x 14.6 x 7.6 x 0.7 x 0.8 x 1.5% 1.5% -2.7% -3.6% 4.3% 9.3% -0.6% 12.8%JX Holdings JPY 5020 JP 13.7 Outperform 546.0 660.0 +20.9% 6.0 x 5.7 x 6.2 x 7.8 x 0.7 x 0.7 x 2.9% 3.7% -5.0% 6.6% 6.9% 5.3% 40.9% 39.1%Japan Petro. Expln JPY 1662 JP 2.5 Outperform 4,420.0 5,500.0 +24.4% 7.6 x 5.1 x 7.7 x 10.6 x 0.7 x 0.8 x 0.9% 1.1% 3.5% -44.8% 8.2% 5.8% -7.9% 19.8%

TWSE Index 764.8 8,168 15.1 x 15.1 xTAIWAN AVG 73.5 +7.9% 13.3 x 11.2 x 17.0 x 16.5 x 2.3 x 2.2 x 3.8% 4.7% 4.4% 3.5% 7.4% 8.9% 22.0% 23.2%FPCC TWD 6505 TT 25.3 Underperform 79.0 74.00 -6.3% 15.9 x 13.8 x nmf 22.1 x 3.2 x 3.0 x 2.9% 3.6% 3.9% 2.7% 6.4% 7.9% 42.6% 42.2%FPC TWD 1301 TT 16.3 Outperform 76.2 92.00 +20.7% 12.5 x 10.2 x 17.2 x 13.3 x 1.9 x 1.8 x 4.3% 5.4% 6.2% 2.9% 8.5% 10.3% 3.1% 6.3%NPC TWD 1303 TT 16.5 Outperform 61.8 67.50 +9.2% 11.5 x 9.8 x 16.9 x 14.0 x 1.7 x 1.7 x 4.3% 5.0% 3.2% 5.0% 7.4% 8.5% 20.3% 21.0%FCFC TWD 1326 TT 15.3 Neutral 77.5 72.00 -7.1% 12.2 x 11.3 x 23.4 x 18.6 x 1.8 x 1.8 x 3.3% 3.9% 3.3% 5.7% 5.1% 6.1% 22.4% 20.5%

KOSPI INDEX 1,039.9 1,994KOREA AVG 25.7 +6.3% 7.9 x 6.6 x 15.1 x 10.9 x 1.2 x 1.1 x 2.0% 2.3% 2.5% 4.1% 6.7% 8.6% 23.2% 20.0%SK Innovation KRW 096770 KS 12.6 Neutral 148,000 150,000.0 +1.4% 6.9 x 6.6 x 13.2 x 10.1 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 2.2% 2.2% -1.3% -1.1% 5.6% 6.8% 26.0% 26.4%S-Oil KRW 010950 KS 8.2 Neutral 79,000 77,000.0 -2.5% 9.5 x 7.2 x 16.6 x 9.3 x 1.6 x 1.5 x 3.4% 5.1% 1.5% 7.1% 6.2% 10.8% 33.2% 29.3%GS Holdings KRW 078930 KS 4.9 Outperform 57,500 61,000.0 +6.1% 7.9 x 5.9 x 12.0 x 8.7 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 2.5% 2.6% 11.8% 9.3% 5.5% 7.2% 25.8% 18.8%Lotte Chemical KRW 011170 KS 5.9 Outperform 186,000 212,000.0 +14.0% 7.6 x 6.6 x 18.9 x 14.4 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 0.5% 0.5% -1.7% 1.6% 5.0% 6.1% 16.3% 15.0%LG Chem KRW 051910 KS 18.4 Outperform 302,000 340,000.0 +12.6% 7.7 x 6.6 x 14.8 x 12.1 x 1.9 x 1.7 x 1.3% 1.3% 2.3% 3.7% 11.1% 12.3% 14.5% 10.4%

FSSTI Index 402.2 3,120 14.4 x 14.4 xSINGAPORE AVG 23.2 +19.1% 8.8 x 7.6 x 12.8 x 10.6 x 2.2 x 2.0 x 3.6% 4.1% 1.1% 5.7% 12.1% 13.9% -1.6% -9.9%Keppel SGD KEP SP 15.0 Outperform 10.5 11.80 +12.0% 9.7 x 9.6 x 13.3 x 13.0 x 1.9 x 1.8 x 4.1% 4.1% 4.4% 1.1% 8.4% 8.1% 15.1% 15.1%Sembcorp Marine SGD SMM SP 7.3 Outperform 4.4 5.80 +31.2% 9.6 x 7.6 x 15.0 x 12.0 x 3.3 x 2.9 x 3.6% 4.1% 1.9% 7.0% 20.4% 22.3% -52.6% -69.7%VARD SGD VARD SP 0.9 Outperform 1.0 1.10 +14.0% 7.2 x 5.8 x 10.1 x 6.7 x 1.5 x 1.3 x 3.2% 4.3% -2.8% 9.1% 7.5% 11.2% 32.9% 25.0%

FBMKLSI Index 302.9 1,771 16.6 x 16.6 xMALAYSIA AVG 26.5 +20.7% 11.9 x 8.0 x 22.6 x 14.3 x 2.6 x 2.1 x 1.7% 1.9% -2.7% -5.8% 12.2% 13.1% 6.6% 6.6%Petronas Chemical MYR PCHEM MK 16.4 Outperform 6.8 7.50 +11.1% 6.0 x 5.6 x 12.1 x 11.1 x 2.3 x 2.1 x 4.0% 4.4% 4.8% 8.5% 19.7% 19.7% -67.7% -70.6%SapuraKencana MYR SAKP MK 6.6 Outperform 3.6 4.80 +33.0% 18.1 x 9.1 x 35.6 x 15.9 x 2.8 x 1.7 x 0.0% 0.0% -8.7% -22.2% 7.6% 10.1% 42.2% 44.7%Bumi Armada MYR BAB MK 3.5 Outperform 3.9 4.60 +17.9% 11.4 x 9.3 x 20.1 x 15.9 x 2.7 x 2.4 x 1.0% 1.3% -4.2% -3.7% 9.2% 9.5% 45.4% 45.8%

P/B Divi YieldP/E EV/EBITDA Ratio GearingFCF Yield ROACE


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Fig 9 Asia Oil and Gas Performance Summary, EPS, MacQ vs. Consensus


Company Local Price Price Target Upside Cons. Macq. vs.Curr (local) (local) Price 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y YTD 2012A 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E TP Cons.

HANG SENG INDEX +2% +10% +2% +14% +1%HK/China +35% -6% -3% -2% +54% -2% +17% +21% -2% -0% 5%PetroChina HKD 857 HK 8.67 8.50 -2% -7% +4% -19% -9% -21% 0.63 0.71 0.81 +13% +13% 0.69 0.74 +3% +9% 10.1 -16%Sinopec HKD 386 HK 6.06 6.50 +7% +3% +10% -10% +11% -10% 0.44 0.58 0.71 +34% +22% 0.61 0.65 -4% +8% 7.0 -7%CNOOC HKD 883 HK 16.08 19.00 +18% +10% +25% +11% +8% -4% 1.43 1.56 1.69 +9% +9% 1.40 1.46 +11% +16% 17.6 8%COSL HKD 2883 HK 20.10 18.00 -10% +15% +31% +30% +55% +26% 1.00 1.29 1.38 +29% +7% 1.26 1.40 +2% -2% 20.7 -13%Kunlun Energy HKD 135 HK 11.20 17.00 +52% -11% -19% -30% -19% -31% 0.84 0.94 1.11 +12% +18% 0.92 1.04 +2% +7% 14.1 21%MIE HKD 1555 HK 1.72 2.80 +63% -3% -4% -15% -13% -29% 0.20 0.18 0.23 -14% +31% 0.18 0.25 -4% -9% 2.2 29%NewOcean Energy HKD 342 HK 5.26 6.70 +27% +10% +19% +26% +192% +16% 0.36 0.48 0.66 +36% +37% 0.55 0.59 -11% +11% 6.2 7%Anton HKD 3337 HK 4.50 8.20 +82% -18% -16% -2% +132% +10% 0.16 0.19 0.25 +20% +32% 0.19 0.24 +2% +4% 6.4 28%Honghua HKD 196 HK 2.30 1.90 -17% -14% -27% -40% +56% -32% 0.17 0.21 0.21 +24% +2% 0.25 0.27 -17% -23% 3.2 -41%SPT Energy HKD 1251 HK 3.74 5.40 +44% -18% -18% +6% +113% -4% 0.18 0.21 0.25 +12% +21% 0.22 0.29 -6% -14% 5.5 -2%Petro-king HKD 2178 HK 3.62 7.20 +99% -17% -33% -13% +10% +10% 0.19 0.22 0.29 +14% +32% 0.23 0.32 -7% -9% 5.4 32%Hilong HKD 1623 HK 3.96 6.00 +52% -17% -7% +30% +119% +46% 0.22 0.24 0.32 +12% +34% 0.24 0.32 -0% +1% 5.5 10%Green Dragon Gas GBp GDG LN 295.00 700.00 +137% +33% +45% +49% +16% +11% 0.15- 0.01- 0.13 NM NM nmf nmf nmf nmf 670.0 4%

BSE SENSEX INDEX +3% +5% +2% +9% +2%India +20% +3% -6% -15% -17% -15% -1% +7% -14% -4% -5%RIL INR RIL IN 873.00 1,100.00 +26% +2% +11% +3% +9% +4% 66.75 69.92 76.37 +5% +9% 65.83 71.72 +6% +6% 979.9 12%ONGC INR ONGC IN 282.70 360.00 +27% +3% -9% -11% -0% +5% 29.22 28.31 33.20 -3% +17% 30.14 32.11 -6% +3% 354.5 2%IOCL INR IOCL IN 232.95 300.00 +29% +16% -7% -25% -9% -14% 49.15 18.32 30.42 -63% +66% 27.07 25.04 -32% +21% 265.5 13%Cairn India INR CAIR IN 320.40 378.00 +18% +7% +11% +8% -6% +0% 38.85 58.18 60.27 +50% +4% 60.51 57.51 -4% +5% 378.3 0%GAIL INR GAIL IN 313.80 390.00 +24% +2% +6% -8% -15% -12% 35.03 34.25 34.05 -2% -1% 36.40 34.89 -6% -2% 361.3 8%BPCL INR BPCL IN 305.15 421.00 +38% +7% -15% -22% -14% -14% 11.53 29.99 21.37 NM -29% 24.02 28.77 +25% -26% 423.9 -1%HPCL INR HPCL IN 186.90 255.00 +36% -2% -27% -38% -39% -36% 4.50 6.67 27.37 +48% NM 21.71 28.43 -69% -4% 272.7 -6%Petronet LNG INR PLNG IN 118.60 96.00 -19% -4% -10% -18% -30% -25% 14.10 15.32 12.07 +9% -21% 13.90 15.60 +10% -23% 156.0 -38%Aban Offshore INR ABAN IN 222.95 222.00 -0% -4% -17% -21% -46% -41% 58.52 29.18 59.31 -50% NM 53.72 74.43 -46% -20% 350.3 -37%

SET INDEX -4% -0% -11% +11% +1%Thailand +14% -2% +5% -4% +16% -1% +30% +19% -2% +7% -3%PTT THB PTT TB 335.00 361.00 +8% +1% +7% -2% +2% +1% 36.64 39.89 43.73 +9% +10% 38.89 42.18 +3% +4% 382.4 -6%PTT E&P THB PTTEP TB 169.50 200.00 +18% +6% +17% +11% +15% +3% 18.14 17.73 18.43 -2% +4% 16.24 17.04 +9% +8% 182.3 10%PTT Global Chem THB PTTGC TB 71.50 91.00 +27% -2% +8% -1% +17% +2% 7.64 7.69 8.99 NM +17% 7.64 8.27 +1% +9% 85.9 6%Thai Oil THB TOP TB 60.00 74.00 +23% -4% -4% -12% -11% -11% 5.61 5.05 6.27 -10% +24% 6.19 6.62 -18% -5% 71.0 4%Bangchak Petro. THB BCP TB 32.75 27.00 -18% -6% +2% -11% +39% +3% 1.73 3.41 4.34 +97% +27% 3.81 4.21 -10% +3% 40.9 -34%Siam Cement THB SCC TB 432.00 545.00 +26% -5% +1% -10% +32% -2% 19.65 30.47 40.95 +55% +34% 28.77 33.45 +6% +22% 524.1 4%

NIKKEI INDEX +4% +16% +18% +60% +39%Japan +31% +6% +17% -1% +25% +20% +15% +14% -9% +19% 7%Inpex Corp JPY 1605 JP 455,000.00 670,000.00 +47% +8% +10% -13% -1% -1% 23,971 31,847 60,749 +33% +91% 51,354 38,883 -38% +56% 602,571 11%JX Holdings JPY 5020 JP 546.00 660.00 +21% +4% +23% -1% +33% +13% 89.70 86.45 68.66 -4% -21% 72.01 69.28 +20% -1% 658.2 0%Japan Petro. Expln JPY 1662 JP 4,420.00 5,500.00 +24% +5% +17% +11% +44% +46% 292.49 588.88 423.82 NM -28% 130.01- 415.43 NM +2% 4,990.0 10%

TWSE Index +2% +3% +2% +8% +6%Taiwan +4% +3% +10% +6% +0% +3% NM +27% +9% +23% 7%FPCC TWD 6505 TT 79.00 74.00 -6% +4% +3% -5% -9% -8% 0.13 2.65 3.50 NM +32% 2.48 2.81 +7% +25% 70.8 5%FPC TWD 1301 TT 76.20 92.00 +21% +2% +16% +8% -4% +1% 2.19 4.41 5.70 NM +29% 3.50 4.21 +26% +35% 75.1 22%NPC TWD 1303 TT 61.80 67.50 +9% +3% +6% +11% +11% +11% 0.40 3.58 4.30 NM +20% 3.01 3.28 +19% +31% 63.7 6%FCFC TWD 1326 TT 77.50 72.00 -7% +3% +17% +8% +3% +6% 1.16 3.33 4.20 NM +26% 3.93 4.14 -15% +1% 75.4 -5%

KOSPI INDEX +4% +6% -0% +2% -0%Korea +6% +4% +10% -9% -16% -18% -6% +40% -14% -15% -6%SK Innovation KRW 096770 KS 148,000.00 150,000.00 +1% +2% +6% -12% -12% -15% 12,649 10,809 14,178 -15% +31% 12,680 18,287 -15% -22% 188,038 -20%S-Oil KRW 010950 KS 79,000.00 77,000.00 -3% +4% -1% -17% -25% -24% 5,018 4,585 8,223 -9% +79% 5,882 8,613 -22% -5% 86,926 -11%GS Holdings KRW 078930 KS 57,500.00 61,000.00 +6% +7% +7% -13% -15% -20% 5,217 4,783 6,608 -8% +38% 5,898 7,522 -19% -12% 68,196 -11%Lotte Chemical KRW 011170 KS 186,000.00 212,000.00 +14% -1% +19% -13% -24% -24% 9,862 9,730 12,765 -1% +31% 10,907 19,043 -11% -33% 191,577 11%LG Chem KRW 051910 KS 302,000.00 340,000.00 +13% +4% +18% +8% -4% -8% 20,223 20,553 25,129 +2% +22% 20,976 26,026 -2% -3% 335,080 1%

Straits Times -4% -0% -5% +3% -1%Singapore +19% +3% -0% -10% -18% -10% -19% +26% +2% +2% 9%Keppel SGD KEP SP 10.54 11.80 +12% +0% +3% -7% -2% -1% 1.06 0.78 0.79 -27% +2% 0.84 0.91 -7% -12% 12.3 -4%Sembcorp Marine SGD SMM SP 4.42 5.80 +31% -2% +5% -1% -11% -4% 0.26 0.29 0.36 +12% +25% 0.27 0.33 +7% +9% 5.0 17%VARD SGD VARD SP 0.97 1.10 +14% +12% -9% -22% -41% -26% 0.76 0.44 0.66 -43% +51% 0.42 0.60 +4% +10% 1.0 15%

Bursa Malaysia -1% +2% +8% +9% +5%Malaysia +21% +0% -0% +9% +20% +6% +47% +18% +3% +20% 8%Petronas Chemical MYR PCHEM MK 6.75 7.50 +11% +2% +6% +6% +4% +5% 0.44 0.53 0.59 +10% 0.49 0.49 +10% +19% 6.8 10%SapuraKencana MYR SAKP MK 3.61 4.80 +33% -3% -11% +18% +52% +15% 0.09 0.10 0.22 NM 0.11 0.18 -13% +24% 4.7 2%Bumi Armada MYR BAB MK 3.90 4.60 +18% +1% +4% +3% +5% -2% 0.13 0.19 0.25 +47% +27% 0.17 0.21 +13% +17% 4.1 12%

Absolute Performance EPS (local) EPS growth Macq. vs. ConsCons EPS (local)


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Global Oil & Gas Comparables Valuation

Fig 10 Global Oil and Gas Comparables Valuation


Company Local B'berg Mcap Reco. Price Price Target

TSR Upside

Curr Ticker (US$ bn) (local) (local) (PT + DY) 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E

Exxon USD XOM US 389.1 Neutral 88.40 98.00 +14% 4.9 x 4.1 x 11.5 x 9.7 x 2.1 x 1.9 x 2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 5.8% 18.4% 19.6% 7.6% 6.9%RD Shell GBp RDSA LN 211.5 Outperform 2,067.50 2,500.00 +26% 4.0 x 3.6 x 7.6 x 7.2 x 1.2 x 1.1 x 5.5% 5.6% 4.6% 6.9% 12.4% 12.9% 13.2% 11.3%BP GBp BP/ LN 132.3 Outperform 442.50 550.00 +30% 2.9 x 3.1 x 8.4 x 5.9 x 0.9 x 0.8 x 5.3% 5.8% -0.1% 5.4% 10.0% 12.2% 12.0% 13.4%Chevron USD CVX US 239.8 Outperform 124.14 148.00 +22% 4.1 x 3.4 x 9.7 x 8.7 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 3.1% 3.3% 2.4% 3.2% 15.4% 15.3% -1.7% 1.5%TOTAL EUR FP FP 135.0 Neutral 42.85 42.00 +3% 3.3 x 2.9 x 8.7 x 8.3 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 5.5% 5.5% -3.3% 2.2% 11.1% 11.4% 20.5% 17.9%Conoco USD COP US 84.6 Neutral 69.19 64.00 -4% 4.5 x 4.3 x 11.8 x 10.9 x 1.6 x 1.5 x 3.9% 4.0% 0.0% 0.2% 10.8% 11.2% 18.5% 21.0%Eni EUR ENI IM 84.4 Outperform 17.52 21.00 +26% 3.3 x 2.5 x 12.0 x 7.8 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 6.3% 6.4% 2.8% 9.2% 6.6% 9.7% 18.8% 17.6%

Statoil NOK STL NO 72.6 Neutral 135.20 150.00 +16% 3.3 x 2.0 x 9.4 x 7.8 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 5.0% 5.2% -2.3% -54.7% 10.6% 13.3% 14.7% 14.2%BG Group GBp BG/ LN 65.1 Outperform 1,204.00 1,400.00 +18% 7.4 x 5.7 x 16.3 x 12.3 x 2.0 x 1.7 x 1.4% 1.5% -4.4% -4.7% 8.8% 10.0% 23.5% 27.2%Occidental USD OXY US 72.1 Neutral 89.49 92.00 +6% 5.2 x 4.7 x 12.9 x 11.5 x 1.6 x 1.5 x 2.7% 3.0% 4.3% 6.4% 11.5% 12.0% 9.4% 4.3%Repsol EUR REP SM 32.0 Neutral 18.52 16.00 -9% 5.1 x 5.2 x 11.1 x 11.6 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 5.0% 4.3% 5.8% 5.3% 6.8% 6.2% 21.5% 18.1%Marathon Oil USD MRO US 25.2 Outperform 35.57 43.00 +23% 3.2 x 2.7 x 11.4 x 9.1 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 1.9% 2.0% 0.7% 6.7% 9.2% 10.2% 18.9% 17.4%Galp EUR GALP PL 14.2 Outperform 12.90 16.20 +28% 9.6 x 8.8 x 26.4 x 22.4 x 2.0 x 1.9 x 2.2% 2.7% -5.8% -2.6% 5.2% 5.8% 26.4% 29.5%OMV EUR OMV AV 15.8 Neutral 36.33 26.50 -24% 3.7 x 3.4 x 8.3 x 8.0 x 0.8 x 0.8 x 3.5% 3.5% 11.1% 10.5% 10.4% 10.1% 12.3% 7.6%

PetroChina HKD 857 HK 204.6 Neutral 8.67 8.50 +3% 4.5 x 4.0 x 9.6 x 8.5 x 1.1 x 1.0 x 4.8% 5.3% -6.3% -1.2% 9.5% 9.7% 25.7% 27.7%Sinopec HKD 386 HK 90.4 Outperform 6.06 6.50 +12% 4.0 x 3.5 x 8.2 x 6.7 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 4.5% 5.2% -5.2% -3.4% 10.4% 10.2% 26.9% 29.5%CNOOC HKD 883 HK 92.6 Outperform 16.08 19.00 +21% 3.7 x 3.4 x 8.1 x 7.4 x 1.6 x 1.4 x 3.1% 3.3% -12.5% 5.7% 16.8% 14.9% 24.9% 20.5%RIL INR RIL IN 44.5 Outperform 873.00 1,100.00 +27% 9.0 x 7.6 x 12.4 x 11.4 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 1.1% 1.2% 3.5% -4.4% 9.2% 9.3% 17.5% 19.2%ONGC INR ONGC IN 38.2 Outperform 282.70 360.00 +31% 4.5 x 4.0 x 10.2 x 8.7 x 1.6 x 1.7 x 3.4% 3.7% -4.8% 11.7% 14.9% 16.6% 0.5% -0.4%Woodside AUD WPL AU 29.3 Neutral 38.51 40.00 +11% 7.2 x 5.4 x 15.4 x 12.2 x 1.9 x 1.9 x 6.8% 6.6% 7.3% 13.3% 10.7% 13.5% 15.6% 8.5%Petrobras* BRL PETR4 BZ 100.6 Not Rated 18.13 NM NM 6.3 x 6.2 x 11.2 x 8.2 x 0.7 x 0.6 xRosneft* USD ROSN LI 83.9 Not Rated 7.92 NM NM 5.5 x 5.1 x 7.4 x 6.8 x 1.1 x 1.0 x

Big Four 972.8 +21% 4.0 x 3.6 x 9.3 x 7.9 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 4.1% 4.4% 2.5% 5.3% 14.0% 15.0% 7.8% 8.3%Europe 762.9 +19% 4.7 x 4.1 x 12.0 x 10.1 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 4.4% 4.5% 0.9% -2.5% 9.1% 10.2% 18.1% 17.4%US 810.9 +14% 4.4 x 3.8 x 11.5 x 10.0 x 1.6 x 1.5 x 2.9% 3.0% 2.1% 4.4% 13.1% 13.6% 10.5% 10.2%APAC & EM 684.1 +13% 5.6 x 4.9 x 10.3 x 8.7 x 1.3 x 1.2 x 3.9% 4.2% -3.0% 3.6% 11.9% 12.4% 18.5% 17.5%Global 2,257.9 +15% 5.0 x 4.3 x 11.3 x 9.6 x 1.4 x 1.3 x 3.9% 4.0% 0.1% 1.1% 10.9% 11.7% 16.3% 15.6%

GearingEV/EBITDA Ratio P/E Ratio P/B Ratio Dividend Yield FCF Yield ROACE


Macquarie R

esearch A

sia Oil &

Gas

16 Septem

ber 2013 9

Fig 11 Global Oil and Gas Performance Summary, EPS, MacQ vs. Consensus


Company Local B'berg Price Price Target TSR Upside Cons.

Curr Ticker (local) (local) (PT + DY) 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y YTD 2012A 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E 2013E 2014E TPExxon USD XOM US 88.4 98.0 +14% -1% -3% -1% -3% +2% 8.10 7.58 8.99 -6% +19% 7.62 8.02 -0% +12% 95.7 +2%RD Shell GBp RDSA LN 2,067.5 2,500.0 +26% -1% -2% -7% -8% -3% 4.02 4.25 4.48 +6% +5% 3.89 4.08 +9% +10% 2,412.0 +4%BP GBp BP/ LN 442.5 550.0 +30% -1% -2% -2% -1% +4% 0.93 0.83 1.18 -10% +42% 0.78 0.90 +7% +30% 493.3 +11%Chevron USD CVX US 124.1 148.0 +22% +1% +2% +5% +7% +15% 12.20 12.48 14.00 +2% +12% 12.12 12.37 +3% +13% 135.1 +10%TOTAL EUR FP FP 42.8 42.0 +3% +5% +15% +9% +5% +10% 5.44 4.88 5.13 -10% +5% 5.06 5.18 -4% -1% 45.2 -7%Conoco USD COP US 69.2 64.0 -4% +3% +12% +18% +20% +19% 6.10 5.76 6.27 -6% +9% 5.88 6.25 -2% +0% 68.8 -7%Eni EUR ENI IM 17.5 21.0 +26% +2% +5% -2% -2% -4% 1.97 1.45 2.23 -26% +53% 1.46 1.78 -1% +25% 19.3 +9%

Statoil NOK STL NO 135.2 150.0 +16% +7% +7% -4% -9% -3% 17.32 14.57 17.57 -16% +21% 14.69 15.66 -1% +12% 149.0 +1%BG Group GBp BG/ LN 1,204.0 1,400.0 +18% -1% +1% +2% -5% +19% 1.22 1.23 1.58 +1% +28% 1.22 1.40 +1% +13% 1,377.3 +2%Occidental USD OXY US 89.5 92.0 +6% +2% -4% +7% -1% +17% 7.09 6.91 7.76 -3% +12% 7.09 7.46 -3% +4% 103.1 -11%Repsol EUR REP SM 18.5 16.0 -9% +2% +7% +9% +18% +21% 1.58 1.66 1.58 +5% -5% 1.68 1.66 -1% -5% 19.1 -16%Marathon Oil USD MRO US 35.6 43.0 +23% +4% +3% +3% +19% +16% 2.45 3.13 3.91 +28% +25% 2.94 3.13 +7% +25% 41.7 +3%Galp EUR GALP PL 12.9 16.2 +28% +1% +5% +8% +1% +10% 0.43 0.51 0.60 +17% +18% 0.43 0.50 +18% +18% 15.8 +3%OMV EUR OMV AV 36.3 26.5 -24% +4% +1% +4% +35% +33% 4.73 4.32 4.48 -9% +4% 4.34 4.46 -0% +0% 34.5 -23%

PetroChina HKD 857 HK 8.7 8.5 +3% -7% +4% -19% -9% -21% 0.63 0.71 0.81 +13% +13% 0.69 0.74 +3% +9% 10.1 -16%Sinopec HKD 386 HK 6.1 6.5 +12% +3% +10% -10% +11% -10% 0.44 0.58 0.71 +34% +22% 0.61 0.65 -4% +8% 7.0 -7%CNOOC HKD 883 HK 16.1 19.0 +21% +10% +25% +11% +8% -4% 1.43 1.56 1.69 +9% +9% 1.40 1.46 +11% +16% 17.6 +8%RIL INR RIL IN 873.0 1,100.0 +27% +2% +11% +3% +9% +4% 66.75 69.92 76.37 +5% +9% 65.83 71.72 +6% +6% 979.9 +12%ONGC INR ONGC IN 282.7 360.0 +31% +3% -9% -11% -0% +5% 29.22 28.31 33.20 -3% +17% 30.14 32.11 -6% +3% 354.5 +2%Woodside AUD WPL AU 38.5 40.0 +11% -0% +12% +5% +12% +14% 2.58 2.34 2.94 -9% +26% 2.33 2.78 +0% +6% 39.9 +0%Petrobras* BRL PETR4 BZ 18.1 +11% -4% -3% -21% -7% 2.22 2.36 22.1Rosneft* USD ROSN LI 7.9 +11% +22% -1% +23% -11% 37.64 37.30 8.7

Big Four +21% -0% -1% -1% -2% +5% -2% +17% +4% +14% +6%Europe +19% +1% +3% -0% -2% +4% -6% +20% +3% +13% +2%US +14% +0% +0% +4% +3% +9% -2% +15% +0% +11% +2%APAC & EM +13% +3% +9% -6% +0% -9% +14% +14% +3% +9% -5%Global +15% +2% +4% -1% +1% +2% +1% +17% +2% +11% -0%

Absolute Performance EPS (local) Macq. vs. Cons.

Macq. vs. ConsEPS growth Cons EPS (local)



16 September 2013 10

Crude Oil Price & Differentials

Fig 12 Global crude benchmarks Fig 13 Crude Differentials

Fig 14 Brent forward curve at c.$95/bbl long term Fig 15 Crude price summary

13-Sept

06-Sept

3Q13 TD 2Q13

Q/Q %chg

Brent ($/bbl) 112.3 115.1 110.1 103.1 7%

Dubai ($/bbl) 109.0 111.1 105.9 100.8 5%

WTI ($/bbl) 108.3 108.5 106.0 94.2 13%

Duri ($/bbl) 107.9 109.7 100.6 99.7 1%

Minas ($/bbl) 110.2 111.4 101.6 101.1 0%

Duri - Brent ($/bbl) (4.4) (5.4) (5.6) (3.4) -39%

Arab Light - Heavy ($/bbl) 4.6 4.6 3.5 3.5 -1%

Brent - WTI ($/bbl) 4.1 6.7 4.1 8.9 -54%

Source for all charts: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013

Fig 16 Macquarie Macro Assumptions

$/bbl 2013e 2014e normalised

Brent - Macquarie 108 116 115

Brent - Bloomberg median 111 111 110

Brent - Forward curve 108 103 98

Singapore complex GRM - Macquarie 6.9 7.5 6.0

China complex GRM - Macquarie 2.8 4.2 6.3

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013

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Spot T-1 monthT-3 months T-1 yearAt 2008 peak ($145/bbl) At 2008 trough ($35/bbl)MacQe




U.S. Oil – Commitment of Traders (COT) Summary

Fig 17 Fund Net WTI Positions back at record long Fig 18 Hedge Net Positions vs. Oil Price

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013. Note: Fund category covers large speculators or CFTC’s “non-commercial positions”

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013. Note: Hedge category covers oil industry traders or CFTC’s “commercial positions”

Fig 19 Small Speculators Net Positions vs. Oil Price Fig 20 Open Interest (futures + options) vs. Oil Price

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013. Note: Fund category covers small speculators or CFTC’s “non-reportable positions”

Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013

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Asia Refining Margins & Cracks

Fig 21 China GRMs – Q3 very strong Fig 22 MacQ China GRM vs. Sinopec GRM

Fig 23 China regulated ex-factory product price vs. Dubai Fig 24 Diesel Price: China ex-factory vs. Singapore

Fig 25 China vs. S’pore gasoline price Fig 26 China fuel oil now near Singapore

Source for all charts: Bloomberg, CEIC, Macquarie Research, September 2013

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MQ China GRM 5Y Range 5Y Ave2012 2013 Fwd Margin

R² = 72%

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Gasoline Diesel Fuel Oil Dubai Crude

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China Fuel Oil S'pore Fuel Oil (FOB)




Fig 27 China product cracks Fig 28 Singapore product cracks

Fig 29 Singapore complex GRM – remains at 2-year lows Fig 30 Korea complex GRM

Fig 31 China vs. Singapore GRM Fig 32 Asia refinery maintenance – strong Q3/Q4 dmd ahead

Source for all charts: Bloomberg, Datastream, CEIC, FACTS, Macquarie Research, September 2013

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(kb/d)

Range 5Y Avg2012 2013E




Singapore Oil Product Inventories

Fig 33 S’pore total oil product inventory – top end Fig 34 S’pore middle distillate inventory – now near the 5Y average

Fig 35 S’pore light distillate inventory Fig 36 S’pore fuel oil inventory

Source for all charts: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013

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(kb) S'pore Fuel Oil Inventories

Sing FO Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave2012 2013




Asia Petchems Summary

Fig 37 NCC (Naphtha Cracking Center) margin –bottom end of the 5Y range Fig 38 Ethylene-Naphtha spread

Fig 39 PP-Naphtha spread Fig 40 HDPE-Naphtha spread

Fig 41 PX-Naphtha spread Fig 42 PVC-EDC spread

Source for all charts: Datastream, Macquarie Research, September 2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

$/ton NCC Margins

NCC Margin Range 2007-12 Avg2012 2013

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

$/ton Ethylene - Naphtha

Ethylene-Naphtha Range (2007-12) Avg (2007-12)

2012 2013

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

$/ton PP - Naphtha

PP-Naphtha Range (2007-11) Avg (2007-11)

2013 2012

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

$/ton HDPE - Naphtha

HDPE-Naphtha Range (2007-12) Avg (2007-12)

2012 2013

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

$/ton PX-Naphtha

PX-Naphtha Range 2007-12 Avg2012 2013

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

$/ton PVC - EDC

PVC-EDC Range (2007-11) Avg (2007-11)2012 2013




Macro

Fig 43 OECD LI – neutral at best… Fig 44 China GDP estimates – bottomed-out at 7.5%..

Fig 45 Industrial Production Fig 46 Manufacturing PMI – US picking up, other regions remain near 50

Fig 47 China PMI breakdown – near 50 Fig 48 Unemployment rate – US improving

Source for all charts: CEIC, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

(Y-o-Y) OECD LI

G7 Composite US China Eurozone

7.0

7.4

7.8

8.2

8.6

9.0

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3

Y-o-Y % China GDP (B'berg Consensus)

2012 2013

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul -1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

% (Y-o-Y) Industrial Production

China US EU

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-

05

Jul-0

5

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul -1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Manufacturing PMI

US China Eurozone Japan

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

China PMI

New Export Orders Finished Goods

Raw Materials

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

% Unemployment Rate

China Korea Japan US




Fig 49 China consumer confidence – has fallen sharply in recent months Fig 50 China real estate climate index

Fig 51 China textile production Fig 52 Taiwan computers and electronics manufacturing index

Fig 53 China car sales – still at 5Y highs Fig 54 China diesel demand – remains flat y/y

Source for all charts: CEIC, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, September 2013

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13

China consumer confidence index

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

Apr-07 Jan-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Apr-13

China Real Estate Climate Index

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

Y-o-Y % China Textile Production

Yarn Cloth Garment

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13

Index (2006=100)

Taiwan Computers & Electronics Manufacturing Index

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

mn China Passenger Car Sales

7Y Range Avg (2005-11)2012 2013

1,800

2,200

2,600

3,000

3,400

3,800

4,200


(kb/d) China Diesel Demand

5Y Range 5Y Ave 2012 2013


Macquarie R

esearch A

sia Oil &

Gas

16 Septem

ber 2013 18

China Oil Demand, Production & Imports

Fig 55 China Macro Summary

Source: CEIC, Macquarie Research, September 2013. Note: apparent consumption = production + net imports

Macquarie Research

China Crude & Refined Products Summary

Jul-13 Jun-13 M-o-M % Jul-12 Y-o-Y % 1Q13 1Q12 Y-o-Y % 2013TD 2012 (7m) %chg

Apparent Consumption (kb/d)Crude 10,618 9,435 13% 9,520 12% 9,850 9,806 0% 9,916 9,696 2%Total Products 10,492 10,000 5% 9,837 6.7% 10,520 9,979 5% 10,273 9,742 5%

Gasoline 2,219 2,090 6% 2,075 7% 2,242 1,914 17% 2,178 1,931 13%Diesel 3,496 3,255 7% 3,337 5% 3,457 3,438 1% 3,390 3,370 1%Kerosene 464 449 3% 422 10% 409 379 8% 434 374 16%Fuel Oil 691 742 -7% 599 15% 763 650 17% 751 612 23%Lubricants 246 240 3% 222 11% 194 240 -19% 222 238 -7%Naphtha 670 633 6% 661 1% 807 718 12% 729 690 6%LPG 870 862 1% 778 12% 791 739 7% 815 741 10%Petcoke 1,097 922 19% 899 22% 944 781 21% 967 812 19%

Natural Gas (bcm) 12.3 12.2 1% 11.3 9% 40.3 41.0 -2% 90.2 85.5 6%

Production (kb/d)Crude 4,230 4,158 2% 4,194 1% 4,226 4,144 2% 4,217 4,126 2%Total Products 10,184 9,684 5% 9,503 7% 10,260 9,583 7% 9,984 9,397 6%

Gasoline 2,308 2,206 5% 2,112 9% 2,352 2,009 17% 2,290 1,999 15%Diesel 3,525 3,283 7% 3,372 5% 3,532 3,433 3% 3,446 3,373 2%Kerosene 521 470 11% 415 25% 472 409 15% 484 407 19%Fuel Oil 440 468 -6% 341 29% 432 317 36% 442 318 39%Lubricants 194 207 -6% 191 1% 148 198 -25% 176 198 -11%Naphtha 586 548 7% 598 -2% 751 639 18% 661 633 4%LPG 772 747 3% 692 12% 775 716 8% 764 696 10%Petcoke 819 787 4% 712 15% 753 650 16% 771 678 14%

Natural Gas (bcm) 9.0 8.9 2% 8.3 9% 30.2 33.2 -9% 66.1 66.4 0%

Net Imports (kb/d)Crude 6,388 5,277 21% 5,326 20% 5,624 5,663 -1% 5,699 5,571 2%Total Products 308 315 -2% 334 -8% 260 396 -34% 288 345 -16%

Gasoline (89) (116) NM (36) NM (111) (96) -14% (112) (67) -40%Diesel (29) (29) -1% (35) 20% (75) 5 NM (56) (3) -95%Kerosene (57) (21) -64% 7 NM (63) (29) -53% (50) (33) -35%Fuel Oil 250 274 -9% 258 -3% 331 332 0% 308 294 5%Lubricants 53 33 62% 31 69% 46 42 10% 45 41 12%Naphtha 84 84 NM 64 NM 56 79 -29% 69 58 19%LPG 97 114 -15% 86 14% 16 23 -29% 51 45 14%Petcoke 278 135 NM 187 49% 191 131 46% 196 134 46%

LNG (bcm) 1.8 1.7 8% 1.8 1% 5.7 4.4 28% 13.2 10.9 21%Pipe Gas (bcm) 1.5 1.7 -11% 1.3 18% 4.5 3.3 35% 11.0 8.2 34%

Month Quarter Year to Date




Fig 56 China apparent consumption y/y% Fig 57 China apparent refined pdts demand – up 6% 2013TD

Fig 58 China crude oil production y/y% Fig 59 China crude oil production – broadly flat y/y

Fig 60 China crude oil net imports y/y% Fig 61 China crude oil net imports – sharp pick up in July

Source for all charts: CEIC, NDRC, Macquarie Research, September 2013

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Y-o-Y % Apparent Consumption

Crude Total Products

4,000

5,500

7,000

8,500

10,000

11,500

13,000


(kb/d) China Total Products Demand


-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan-

11

Mar

-11

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12

Mar

-12

May

-12

Jul-1

2

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Y-o-Y % Indigenous Production

Crude Refined Products

3,200

3,550

3,900

4,250

4,600

4,950


(kb/d) Crude Production


-100%

-60%

-20%

20%

60%

100%

Jan-

11F

eb-1

1M

ar-1

1A

pr-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

n-11

Jul-1

1A

ug-1

1S

ep-1

1O

ct-1

1N

ov-1

1D

ec-1

1Ja

n-12

Feb

-12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13F

eb-1

3M

ar-1

3A

pr-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

n-13

Y-o-Y % Net Imports

Crude Total Product

1,500

2,400

3,300

4,200

5,100

6,000

6,900


(kb/d) Crude Net Imports

5Y Range (06-10) 5Y Ave 2012 2013




Fig 62 China diesel apparent consumption y/y% Fig 63 China diesel consumption – near 2012 levels

Fig 64 China gasoline apparent consumption y/y% Fig 65 China gasoline consumption – above 5Y highs

Fig 66 China fuel oil apparent consumption y/y% Fig 67 China fuel oil consumption – at the 5Y average


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Jan-

11F

eb-1

1M

ar-1

1A

pr-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

n-11

Jul-1

1A

ug-1

1S

ep-1

1O

ct-1

1N

ov-1

1D

ec-1

1Ja

n-12

Feb

-12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan -

13F

eb-1

3M

ar-1

3A

pr-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

n-13

Y-o-Y % Diesel Apparent Consumption

1,800

2,200

2,600

3,000

3,400

3,800

4,200




-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jan-

11F

eb-1

1M

ar-1

1A

pr-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

n-11

Jul-1

1A

ug-1

1S

ep-1

1O

ct-1

1N

ov-1

1D

ec-1

1Ja

n-12

Feb

-12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13F

eb-1

3M

ar-1

3A

pr-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

n-13

Y-o-Y % Gasoline Apparent Consumption

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500


(kb/d) China Gasoline Demand


-35%

-20%

-5%

10%

25%

Jan-

11F

eb-1

1M

ar-1

1A

pr-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

n-11

Jul-1

1A

ug-1

1S

ep-1

1O

ct-1

1N

ov-1

1D

ec-1

1Ja

n-12

Feb

-12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

Oct

-12

Nov

-12

Dec

-12

Jan-

13F

eb-1

3M

ar-1

3A

pr-1

3M

ay-1

3Ju

n-13

Y-o-Y % Fuel Oil Apparent Consumption

-

250

500

750

1,000

1,250


(kb/d) China Fuel Oil Demand





Fig 68 China crude inventories Fig 69 China diesel inventories

Fig 70 China gasoline inventories Fig 71 China kerosene inventories


25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr

-13

Jul -1

3

(mt)

China Crude Oil Inventory

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3

(mt)China Diesel Inventory

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3

(mt)China Gasoline Inventory

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr

-12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr

-13

Jul-1

3

(mt) China Kerosene Inventory




China Gas Demand, Production & Imports

Fig 72 China gas apparent consumption y/y% Fig 73 China natural gas apparent consumption – flat m/m; 2013TD gas demand up 6% y/y

Fig 74 China natural gas production y/y% Fig 75 China natural gas production – broadly flat

Fig 76 China natural gas net imports (pipe + LNG) y/y%

Fig 77 China natural gas net imports (pipe + LNG) – remains high despite recent drop


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0M

ay-1

0Ju

l-10

Sep

-10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11M

ar-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

l-11

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12M

ar-1

2M

ay-1

2Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13M

ar-1

3M

ay-1

3

Y-o-Y % Gas Apparent Consumption

3.0

5.0

7.0

9.0

11.0

13.0

15.0


(bcm) Gas Apparent Consumption


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0M

ay-1

0Ju

l-10

Sep

-10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11M

ar-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

l-11

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12M

ar-1

2M

ay-1

2Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13M

ar-1

3M

ay-1

3

Y-o-Y % Gas Indigenous Production

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0


(bcm) Gas Indigenous Production


0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Jan-

10M

ar-1

0M

ay-1

0Ju

l-10

Sep

-10

Nov

-10

Jan-

11M

ar-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

l-11

Sep

-11

Nov

-11

Jan-

12M

ar-1

2M

ay-1

2Ju

l-12

Sep

-12

Nov

-12

Jan-

13M

ar-1

3M

ay-1

3

Y-o-Y % Gas Imports (pipe + LNG)

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5


(bcm) Gas Imports (pipe + LNG)





China Petchems Demand

Fig 78 China naphtha demand – flat y/y Fig 79 China ethylene demand – up 7% y/y 2013TD

Fig 80 China polyethylene demand – strong over the past 3 months; up 8% y/y 2013TD

Fig 81 China polypropylene demand – flat m/m; but also up 8% y/y 2013TD

Fig 82 China PVC demand stays flat m/m, and at the top end of the 5Y range Fig 83 China polystyrene demand – remains flat


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500


(tons th) Naphtha Apparent Consumption


500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700


(tons th) Ethylene Apparent Consumption

5Y Range 5Y Ave2012 2013

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900


(tons th) Polyethylene Apparent Consumption


500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700


(tons th)Polypropylene Apparent Consumption


400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600


(tons th)PVC Apparent Consumption


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350


(tons th)Polystyrene Apparent Consumption





Asia Total Product Demand

Fig 84 China – remain high above the 5Y range Fig 85 Japan – following seasonal trend

Fig 86 India – remains above 5Y range Fig 87 Korea

Fig 88 Indonesia Fig 89 Thailand – above 5Y highs

Source for all charts: JODI, Macquarie Research, September 2013

4,000

5,500

7,000

8,500

10,000

11,500

13,000


(kb/d) China Total Products Demand


3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

6500

7000


kb/d Japan Total Products Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

3000

3300

3600


kb/d India Total Products Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800


kb/d Korea Total Products Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700


kb/d Indonesia Total Products Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200


kb/d Thailand Total Products Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013




Asia Diesel Demand

Fig 90 China Fig 91 Japan – lingering near 2012 levels

Fig 92 India – at 5Y highs Fig 93 Korea

Fig 94 Indonesia – broadly flat Fig 95 Thailand


1,800

2,200

2,600

3,000

3,400

3,800

4,200




400

600

800

1000

1200

1400


kb/d Japan Diesel Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700


kb/d India Diesel Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550


kb/d Korea Diesel Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


kb/d Indonesia Diesel Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

200

240

280

320

360

400


kb/d Thailand Diesel Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013




Asia Gasoline Demand

Fig 96 China Fig 97 Japan – broadly flat near 2012 level

Fig 98 India – sharp pick-up in May Fig 99 Korea

Fig 100 Indonesia Fig 101 Thailand – 5Y highs


1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

2,500


(kb/d) China Gasoline Demand


600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300


kb/d Japan Gasoline Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

050

100150200250300350400450500


kb/d India Gasoline Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

100

130

160

190

220

250


kb/d Korea Gasoline Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600


kb/d Indonesia Gasoline Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

100

110

120

130

140

150

160


kb/d Thailand Gasoline Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013




Asia Fuel Oil Demand

Fig 102 China Fig 103 Japan

Fig 104 India Fig 105 Korea

Fig 106 Indonesia Fig 107 Thailand


-

250

500

750

1,000

1,250


(kb/d) China Fuel Oil Demand


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


kb/d Japan Fuel Oil Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

300


kb/d India Fuel Oil Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

0

100

200

300

400

500

600


kb/d Korea Fuel Oil Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


kb/d Indonesia Fuel Oil Demand

Range (2009-12) Avg (2009-12)2012 2013

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160


kb/d Thailand Fuel Oil Demand

Range (2005-12) Avg (2005-12)2012 2013




US Oil Demand & Inventories

Fig 108 US total product demand – at 2012 levels Fig 109 US crude inventories – remain high

Fig 110 US diesel demand – ticks below the 5Y average Fig 111 US diesel inventories – remain near 5Y lows

Fig 112 US gasoline demand – sharp w/w fall to the bottom end of the 5Y range Fig 113 US gasoline inventories – declining slowly

Source for all charts: EIA, Macquarie Research, September 2013

16,000

17,400

18,800

20,200

21,600

23,000

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

(kb/d) US Total Product Demand

US Total Pdt Dmd 5Y range 5Y ave.

2012 2013

240,000

270,000

300,000

330,000

360,000

390,000

420,000

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

(kb) US crude inventories (ex SPR)

US Crude Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave2012 2013

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

(kb/d) US Distillate Demand

US Distillate Dmd 5Y Range 5Y ave.

2012 2013

80,000

104,000

128,000

152,000

176,000

200,000

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

(kb) US Distillate Inventories

US Dist Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave.2012 2013

7,800

8,200

8,600

9,000

9,400

9,800

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

(kb/d) US Gasoline Demand

US Gasoline Dmd 5Y Range 5Y ave.

2012 2013

150,000

172,000

194,000

216,000

238,000

260,000

Jan

Feb Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

(kb) US Gasoline Inventories

US Gaso Inv 5Y Range 5Y Ave2012 2013


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Global Oil Supply-Demand

Fig 114 Macquarie Oil Demand-Supply Model

(kb/d) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Comments

Total Oil Product Demand 86,455 85,440 88,063 88,914 89,695 90,570 91,772 93,521

y/y -1,015 2,623 851 780 875 1,202 1,750

Supply

North America 13,364 13,603 14,089 14,570 14,920 15,920 16,520 17,020 US tight oils (Bakken, Eagle Ford); Canada oil sands

Europe & Pacific 5,408 5,161 4,796 4,326 4,257 4,056 3,866 3,866 Mature field declines; heavy maintenance

Total OECD 18,772 18,764 18,885 18,896 19,176 19,976 20,386 20,886

Total Non-OECD Supply 28,418 29,026 29,837 29,716 29,766 29,766 30,386 30,736

Global Bio-fuels 1,416 1,590 1,830 1,865 1,890 1,915 1,940 1,990

Processing Gains 2,036 2,038 2,080 2,108 2,133 2,158 2,183 2,203

Total Non-OPEC 50,642 51,419 52,632 52,585 52,965 53,815 54,895 55,815

OPEC Crude 31,623 29,107 29,234 29,876 30,576 30,676 30,776 30,876

OPEC NGLs 4,391 4,777 5,262 5,654 6,004 6,029 6,054 6,104

Total OPEC 36,120 33,992 34,614 35,652 36,712 36,847 36,982 37,142

Total Crude Supply 86,762 85,411 87,246 88,237 89,677 90,662 91,877 92,957

y/y -1,351 1,835 991 1,440 985 1,215 1,080

Supply-Demand 307 -29 -817 -678 -18 92 105 -565 Balanced tight-supply demand balances 2013

Source: IEA, BP Stat Review, JODI, Macquarie Research, September 2013


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China Gas Supply-Demand

Fig 115 Macquarie China Gas Supply-Demand

Source: CEIC, WMAC, Macquarie Research, September 2013

Macquarie ResearchChina Gas Supply-Demand

(bcm) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2011-15e

2011-20e

DemandResidential 8 10 14 17 18 23 29 34 41 48 56 64 71 78 84 89 18% 13%Industrial 30 34 40 45 44 49 59 69 80 92 107 116 125 135 146 157 16% 11%Power Generation 3 4 8 8 13 19 23 27 31 34 38 42 46 49 53 57 13% 11%Transport (NGVs) 1 1 1 2 3 5 6 7 11 14 19 25 31 40 49 60 33% 29%Other 5 6 7 9 11 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 19 21 22 24 8% 8%

China Gas Demand 47 56 71 81 90 108 129 150 176 205 237 264 292 323 354 388 16% 13%y/y% 18% 20% 26% 15% 10% 20% 20% 16% 17% 16% 16% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9%

SupplyTarim 5 11 14 16 17 17 16 18 19 21 23 26 28 31 33 36Changqing 7 7 9 11 15 16 22 23 26 30 34 39 44 49 54 59Sichuan 11 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 15 16 18 20 22 23 25 27Puguang (Sichuan) 0 0 0 0 0 4 6 9 9 10 12 12 12 12 12 12Xinjiang 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4E-S China Sea Others 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4Liwan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 2 2 2Legacy fields 27 27 31 38 37 43 44 39 41 42 43 44 44 44 44 44

China Indigenous Pdtn 51 59 69 80 85 97 103 104 113 123 133 143 153 161 171 182 7% 6%y/y% 23% 15% 18% 16% 6% 13% 7% 1% 8% 9% 9% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6%

Turkmenistan 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 20 25 40 40 40 50 60 60 60Russia/Central Asia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Myanmmar 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

China Pipeline Imports 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 24 37 52 52 52 62 72 72 72 55% 26%y/y% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 256% 170% 54% 41% 0% 0% 19% 16% 0% 0%

LNG Imports 0 0 0 0 4 8 17 22 26 30 51 69 78 89 111 134 32% 26%Contracted LNG 0 1 1 1 3 7 9 20 25 41 48 54 54 53 53 53Implied Spot LNG 0 0 0 0 1 1 8 2 1 0 3 15 24 36 58 81

LNG imports y/y% 0% 0% 0% 0% NM 96% 103% 30% 20% 15% 71% 33% 13% 15% 25% 20%

China Gas Supply 51 59 69 80 90 108 129 150 176 205 237 264 292 323 354 388 16% 13%y/y% 23% 15% 18% 16% 11% 20% 20% 16% 17% 16% 16% 11% 11% 10% 10% 9%


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Global LNG Supply-Demand

Fig 116 Macquarie Global LNG Supply-Demand

Source: BP Stat Review, WMAC, Macquarie Research, September 2013

Macquarie LNG Supply/Demand Model(in mtpa) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025eSUPPLY

Total Operational 109 110 117 130 133 144 158 169 171 193 228 243 258 266 268 263 259 255 250 244 237 232 226 219 209 200Total Under Construction 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 21 44 65 80 85 88 94 94 94 94 94Total FEED 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 26 49 64 78 84 90 97 97

FEED Atlantic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 17 26 30 43 49 55 62 62FEED Asia/Pacific 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 9 23 34 35 35 35 35 35FEED ME 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Proposed 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 21 44 83 123 165 189 192 192 192Proposed Atlantic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 5 7 21 39 61 86 101 104 104 104Proposed Asia/Pacific 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 8 11 32 50 67 76 76 76 76Proposed ME 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Total Speculative 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 18 46 87 118 143 169 185 188Speculative Atlantic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 29 54 70 81 97 105 107Speculative Asia/Pacific 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 8 16 28 41 54 65 72 74Speculative ME 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 7 7 7 7 7

Total Higly Speculative 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 9 11 29 49 70 83Stalled Atlantic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 6 8 16 23 28 35Stalled Asia/Pacific 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 3 3 3 3 7 11Stalled ME 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 24 35 36

Global LNG Supply (Firm) 109 110 117 130 133 144 158 169 171 193 228 243 258 266 274 283 305 327 355 378 389 404 405 404 400 391Global LNG Supply (Firm + Possible) 109 110 117 130 133 144 158 169 171 193 228 243 258 266 274 287 314 351 422 515 608 698 765 814 846 853

DEMANDJapan 55 57 55 61 59 60 64 69 71 67 71 81 85 87 88 91 91 92 93 94 95 95 96 97 98 98Korea 16 16 18 20 22 23 26 26 28 20 34 37 41 44 45 45 44 43 42 42 42 43 43 44 45 45Taiwan 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 18 19China 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 6 10 13 17 23 28 31 42 42 45 45 53 55 57 59 61 63India 0 0 0 0 2 5 6 8 8 9 9 13 16 17 18 20 21 23 25 26 28 30 31 33 34 36New Asia Pac 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 7 10 12 14 16 18 21 24 27 29 32 36 39

Asia Pac 75 77 79 86 90 94 105 115 120 110 133 157 176 191 204 213 227 231 239 244 259 266 274 283 291 301Middle East 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 6 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 16 17 17North America 5 5 5 11 14 13 13 18 11 13 15 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9

Argentina 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2

South America 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 8 11 12 14 17 17 19 19 19 17 16 14 13 11 10UK 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 8 14 19 20 21 21 23 23 24 25 26 27 28 28 29 31 32Existing continential Europe 26 26 30 32 29 35 41 38 41 43 49 45 39 36 33 33 33 38 50 51 56 58 62 61 60 62New Europe 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 8 11 13 15 16 18 19 21 22 24 25 27 28

Europe 26 26 30 32 30 37 45 42 44 53 65 67 64 64 65 69 71 78 93 96 103 108 114 116 117 122Other 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 5 3 2 0 1 3 4 4 9 2 9 1 3 1 1 3 0Global LNG Demand 107 108 114 129 135 145 163 175 175 184 225 250 269 288 306 325 343 360 376 391 405 417 428 439 449 459




Important disclosures: Recommendation definitions Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10% Macquarie First South - South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10% Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Volatility index definition* This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 30 June 2013 AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR Outperform 49.80% 57.68% 48.05% 41.13% 61.75% 47.10% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 8.12% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Neutral 39.85% 24.45% 42.86% 54.70% 34.42% 30.89% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 6.60% of stocks followed are investment banking clients) Underperform 10.35% 17.87% 9.09% 4.17% 3.83% 22.01% (for US coverage by MCUSA, 0.00% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

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Asia Research Head of Equity Research John O’Connell (Global – Head) (612) 8232 7544 Peter Redhead (Asia – Head) (852) 3922 4836

Automobiles/Auto Parts Janet Lewis (China) (852) 3922 5417 Zhixuan Lin (China) (8621) 2412 9006 Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084 Clive Wiggins (Japan) (813) 3512 7856 Michael Sohn (Korea) (82 2) 3705 8644

Banks and Non-Bank Financials Ismael Pili (Asia, Hong Kong, China) (852) 3922 4774 Suresh Ganapathy (India) (9122) 6720 4078 Nicolaos Oentung (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8366 Alastair Macdonald (Japan) (813) 3512 7476 Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643 Matthew Smith (Malaysia, Singapore) (65) 6601 0981 Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892 Dexter Hsu (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7530 Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728

Conglomerates Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892 Somesh Agarwal (Singapore) (65) 6601 0840

Consumer and Gaming Gary Pinge (Asia) (852) 3922 3557 Linda Huang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4068 Jamie Zhou (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1147 Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084 Lyall Taylor (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8489 Toby Williams (Japan) (813) 3512 7392 HongSuk Na (Korea) (822) 3705 8678 Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Somesh Agarwal (Singapore) (65) 6601 0840 Best Waiyanont (Thailand) (662) 694 7993

Emerging Leaders Jake Lynch (China, Asia) (8621) 2412 9007 Adam Worthington (ASEAN) (852) 3922 4626 Michael Newman (Japan) (813) 3512 7920

Industrials Janet Lewis (Asia) (852) 3922 5417 Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082 Saiyi He (China) (852) 3922 3585 Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087 Andy Lesmana (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8398 Kenjin Hotta (Japan) (813) 3512 7871 Juwon Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8661 Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993 David Gambrill (Thailand) (662) 694 7753

Insurance Scott Russell (Asia, Japan) (852) 3922 3567 Chung Jun Yun (Korea) (822) 2095 7222

Software and Internet David Gibson (Asia) (813) 3512 7880 Jiong Shao (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3566 Steve Zhang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3578 Nitin Mohta (India) (9122) 6720 4090 Nathan Ramler (Japan) (813) 3512 7875 Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989

Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals James Hubbard (Asia) (852) 3922 1226 Aditya Suresh (Hong Kong, China) (852) 3922 1265 Jal Irani (India) (9122) 6720 4080 Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886 Brandon Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8669 Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993 Trevor Buchinski (Thailand) (662) 694 7829

Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Abhishek Singhal (India) (9122) 6720 4086

Property Callum Bramah (Asia) (852) 3922 4731 David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291 Jeffrey Gao (China) (8621) 2412 9026 Kai Tan (China) (852) 3922 3720 Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088 Andy Lesmana (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8398 Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993 RJ Aguirre (Philippines) (632) 857 0890 Tuck Yin Soong (Singapore) (65) 6601 0838 Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522 David Liao (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7518 Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727

Resources / Metals and Mining Graeme Train (China) (8621) 2412 9035 Elizabeth Lee (China) (852) 3922 1302 Matty Zhao (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1293 Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6720 4093 Adam Worthington (Indonesia) (852) 3922 4626 Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8486 Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886 David Liao (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7518 Chak Reungsinpinya (Thailand) (662) 694 7982 Andrew Dale (852) 3922 3587

Technology Jeffrey Su (Asia, Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7512 Steve Zhang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3578 Nitin Mohta (India) (9122) 6720 4090 Claudio Aritomi (Japan) (813) 3512 7858 Damian Thong (Japan) (813) 3512 7877 David Gibson (Japan) (813) 3512 7880 George Chang (Japan) (813) 3512 7854 Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641 Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659 Daniel Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7516 Ellen Tseng (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7524 Tammy Lai (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7525

Telecoms Nathan Ramler (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7875 Danny Chu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4762 Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8486 Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia, Singapore) (603) 2059 8989 Aaron Salvador (Philippines) (632) 857 0895 Joseph Quinn (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7519

Transport & Infrastructure Janet Lewis (Asia, Japan) (852) 3922 5417 Bonnie Chan (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3898 Nicholas Cunningham (Japan) (813) 3512 6044 Sunaina Dhanuka (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8993 Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Utilities & Renewables Gary Chiu (Asia) (852) 3922 1435 Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087 Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989

Commodities Colin Hamilton (Global) (4420) 3037 4061 Jim Lennon (4420) 3037 4271 Duncan Hobbs (4420) 3037 4497 Graeme Train (8621) 2412 9035 Rakesh Arora (9122) 6720 4093

Economics Peter Eadon-Clarke (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7850 Aimee Kaye (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0574 Richard Gibbs (Australia) (612) 8232 3935 Tanvee Gupta (India) (9122) 6720 4355

Quantitative / CPG Gurvinder Brar (Global) (4420) 3037 4036 Josh Holcroft (Asia). (852) 3922 1279 Burke Lau (Asia) (852) 3922 5494 Simon Rigney (Asia, Japan) (852) 3922 4719 Eric Yeung (Asia) (852) 3922 4077 Suni Kim (Japan) (813) 3512 7569

Strategy/Country Viktor Shvets (Asia) (852) 3922 3883 Chetan Seth (Asia) (852) 3922 4769 Joshua van Lin (Asia Micro) (852) 3922 1425 Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) (813) 3512 7850 David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291 Jiong Shao (China) (852) 3922 3566 Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6720 4093 Nicolaos Oentung (Indonesia) (6121) 2598 8366 Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643 Yeonzon Yeow (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982 Alex Pomento (Philippines) (632) 857 0899 Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182 Daniel Chang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7516 David Gambrill (Thailand) (662) 694 7753 Find our research at Macquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/research Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com Bloomberg: MAC GO Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com Email [email protected] for access

Asia Sales Regional Heads of Sales Robin Black (Asia) (852) 3922 2074 Chris Gray (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0288 Peter Slater (Boston) (1 617) 598 2502 Jeffrey Shiu (China & Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2061 Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41) 22 818 7712 Bharat Rawla (India) (9122) 6720 4100 Jurgan Usman (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555 Miki Edelman (Japan) (813) 3512 7857 John Jay Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9988 Ruben Boopalan (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888 Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0861 Eric Roles (New York) (1 212) 231 2559 Paul Colaco (New York) (1 212) 231 2496

Regional Heads of Sales cont’d Sheila Schroeder (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5001 Erica Wang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7586 Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601 Julien Roux (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4867 Sean Alexander (Generalist) (852) 3922 2101

Regional Head of Distribution Justin Crawford (Asia) (852) 3922 2065

Sales Trading Adam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002 Phil Sellaroli (Japan) (813) 3512 7837 Kenneth Cheung (Singapore) (65) 6601 0288

Sales Trading cont’d Mike Keen (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4905 Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555 Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555 Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555 Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888 Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813 Isaac Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7582 Dominic Shore (Thailand) (662) 694 7707


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Asia Oil & Gas - jrj.com.cnDuring the week, stronger diesel ($15.6/bbl, ... Fig 5 Asia Refining &...

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