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Asia Pacific Weekly Price Monitor Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific 6 August 2012
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Page 1: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

6 August 2012

Page 2: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Highlights of the week

From August 2012, AP Weekly Price Monitor team has adjusted the criteria to �ag unusual price movements. On a weekly basis, nominal price variations below 5 percent are considered “stable”. On a monthly basis, nominal price variations below 10 percent are considered “stable”. On an annual basis, nominal price variations below 25 percent are considered “stable”.These modi�cations are also re�ected in the price and policy section, as well as the monthly highlights.

Over the past week, staple food commodity prices remained relatively stable in most countries except for the following:

- Wheat prices in Afghanistan, India and Myanmar increased by 5, 7 and 6 percent respectively.

- Chicken prices in Bangladesh were 12 and 10 percent above the levels observed a month and three months ago, respectively.

- In Bhutan, rice prices fell by 9 percent from the third to the fourth week of July and were 2 percent below the levels registered a year earlier.

- In Lao PDR, glutinous rice prices fell by 12 percent and were 30 percent below the levels observed a month and a year ago. Pork prices dropped by 6 percent and were 13 percent below those observed a month ago.

- Finally, in Samoa, taro palagi prices increased by 31 percent from June to July. Taro palagi prices were 82 and 48 percent above the levels observed a year and three years ago, respectively.

For further detail, please refer to section on “Price and policy information at country level”.

Policy Prices

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Lao PDR is on track to complete its WTO accession negotiations after this year’s summer break, and the country’s membership in the Geneva-based trade body is expected to be formalised before 2012.

A new radio programme in Myanmar funded by the Livelihoods and Food Security Trust Fund (LIFT) has been broadcasting local market prices of crops, from sesame and maize to peas and groundnuts, twice a day since March. In addition, there is another complementary initiative to train farmers to analyse the information they hear so they can make better decisions.

Weather conditions

- Typhoons Saola, Damrey and more recently Haikui have brought the heaviest rains to northern and southern provinces along China’s eastern coast since the beginning of August. Typhoon Haikui caused economic losses of more than CYN 10 billion (USD 1.57 billion), and damaged about 184,800 hectares of cropland (Xinhua, 8 August 2012).

- Tropical Storm Saola (Gener) turned into a typhoon on 30 Jul 2012. It did not strike the Philippines directly, but brought several days of heavy continuous rains to large parts of the country. Latest �gures from the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council reveal that the cost of damages in agriculture is at PHP 847 million (USD 20.2): rice crops at PHP 234 million (USD 5.6); high-value commercial crops at PHP 12 million (USD 286,000); and �sher-ies, PHP 601 million (USD 14.3 million) among others (Government of the Philippines, 12 August 2012).

Page 3: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

International rice prices have remained

surprisingly stable, in sharp contrast with

trends observed in the maize and wheat

markets. In Asia and the Paci�c Region,

nominal rice prices remained largely stable

(+/-10%) in most reporting countries

(twelve out of fourteen). An 11 percent

increase is observed in Sri Lanka. According

to the Department of Census and Statistics

of Sri Lanka, food price index alone

increased by 7.5 percent on a month-to-

month basis (June-July 12), strongly

contributing to a 9 percent in�ation

increase (all items). According to the

Ministry of Industries and Commerce

(MoIC) In Lao PDR, a sudden 30 percent

drop is observed for the �rst time since

November 2010.

International poultry prices remained largely

stable during June (-1%). Overall nominal

chicken prices in Asia and the Paci�c Region

remained largely stable (+/-10%) in six

reporting countries (out of eight). In Indonesia

prices increased by 14 percent while in

Bangladesh they fell by 16 percent.

Export prices of maize increased sharply in the �rst

three weeks of July and remained �rm to the end of

the month. The increase in July largely re�ected

continuous deterioration of crop conditions in the

main growing areas of the United States, a�ected by

severe drought. Over the past month, nominal maize

prices in Asia and the Paci�c Region increased in

Myanmar and Viet Nam by 23 and 14 percent,

respectively; but remained relatively stable in

Afghanistan and the Philippines.

Vegetable oils

Maize Rice

Wheat (grain/ �our)

*Rice mix, **glutinous rice, ***basmati variety, *** *25% brokens

Highlights: July 2012

International fat/oils prices registered a 2

percent increase during July which has

been primarily driven by soyoil, re�ecting

the tight supply and demand outlook for

soybeans reaching record level prices.

However, in Asia and the Paci�c region,

vegetable oils/ cooking oil prices

remained largely stable (+/-10%) in all

reporting countries.

International prices of wheat followed a similar

trend to those of maize through July, averaging

23 percent higher than in June. Further deterio-

ration of prospects for the 2012 wheat crop in

the Russian Federation and high maize values

underpinned prices. However, in Asia and Paci�c

Region, nominal wheat prices remained largely

stable (+/-10%) in seven out of eight reporting

countries. On a month to month basis wheat

prices in Myanmar increased by 21 percent.

Myanmar imports mainly wheat which is not

produced locally. In 2012/13 (July/June)

marketing year, the imports are forecast slightly

above last year’s level at around 160 000 tonnes,

in response to increasing demand.

↑ ↓ → (+/-10%) Afghanisthan → - 0.6%

Bangladesh →

Bhutan → - 7%

Cambodia* → - 4%

China → - 0.8%

India → - 3%

Indonesia → 1.3%

Lao PDR** ↓30.2%

Myanmar → 0.3%

Pakistan*** →

Philippines → - 1.2%

Sri Lanka ↑ 10.8%

Thailand**** → - 9%

Viet Nam → - 1.4%

↑ ↓ → (+/-10%)

Afghanisthan → 6%

Bangladesh → 6.4%

China → 1%

India → - 3.2%

Indonesia → 1.2%

Myanmar ↑ 21.3%

Pakistan → - 3%

Sri Lanka → 0.1%

Chicken

↑ ↓ → (+/-10%) Afghanisthan →

Myanmar ↑ 22.6%

Philippines → - 0.4%

Viet Nam ↑ 14.3%

↑ ↓ → (+/-10%) Afghanisthan → 2%

Bangladesh ↓15.7%

Cambodia → 9.1%

China →

Indonesia ↑ 14.3%

Lao → - 5.2%

Thailand → - 1.7%

Samoa → 0.5%

↑ ↓ → (+/-10%) Afghanistan (cooking oil) → 3.5%

Bangladesh (soybean oil) → 1.1%

Cambodia (soybean oil) →

China (soybean oil) → - 0.2%

Indonesia (soybean) → 4.2%

Myanmar (palm oil) → 1.2%

Myanmar (soybean oil) → 5.6%

Thailand (soybean oil) →

Page 4: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Price Monitoring Model

IN FOCUS: THAILANDPrice Movements (rice 25% brokens, Bangkok market)

Technical notes

The FAO Price Monitoring Model is a simple tool designed to assist policy makers, farmers and traders in assessing whether

recent price trends are in line with those typically observed in the past. The purpose of the model is to determine whether

short-term price movements of a commodity exceed a benchmark which takes into consideration seasonality, in�ation and

historic variability. The model uses only data on past prices and the consumer price index (CPI) to capture these characteris-

tics. It establishes an expected level of price for the following month along with a range of uncertainty generated by past

deviations from expected prices. Price movements can be interpreted as “excessive” if prices fall outside the benchmark

range. The di�erence between the actual price and the “benchmark price” (1 month in advance) that was forecasted for that

same month is also calculated by the model although not shown in the graph. An additional feature of the model is to

show the current level of prices relative to an average of past prices during the past four years (adjusted for in�ation). For

details on the model, please see: http://www.foodsec.org/web/publications/briefs/

The benchmark price for August is THB 17.03 (with a benchmark range of THB 16.22 – 17.84 per kilo), which would represent a 12 percent increase from March 2012. Over the past �ve months, rice prices have been outside the benchmark range 4 times except for June rice prices. If prices follow normal seasonal patterns during the next three months, wholesale nominal prices for rice 25% brokens are likely to increase within a bench-mark range of THB 15.48-16.86 per kilo.

The graph shows that recent price movements have not been in line with those typically observed over the past 7 years. Towards mid-year, when the harvesting of the second crop (dry season) is �nished and the sowing of the main season paddy crop is on-going, prices normally increase from May to July by about 3 percent (average past price line), but actual prices (green line) fell by 3 percent instead. From June to July actual prices show a sharp drop of 5 percent compared to a normal 1 percent increase on average past prices. During July, both export and domestic prices have been declining. Yet, they remained higher than Viet Nam and India’s export prices. It is likely that the high level of government-held stocks with limited warehouse space and tight credit supply are putting pressure on domestic and export prices. According to USDA, the Government is holding total intervention stocks* of around 13 MMT milled equivalent, above the amount that Thailand exports are expected for this year (7.6 MMT)**.

* From the paddy pledging program, where the government purchases rice to farmers at guaranteed prices.** Government Public Relations Department, 30 July 2012.

17.84

18.68

18.86

16.22

16.03

15.48

14.24

14.47

15.41

17.4817.67

17.03

17.3517.17

15.75

15.2915.20

15.4515.60

14.98

15.58

17.2517.61

16.71

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 June 12 July 12 Aug 12 Sep 12 Oct 12

THB

/kg

Benchmark range

Benchmark price (one month in advance)

Average past price

Actual price

Benchmark forecast

Page 5: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

Price and policy information at country level

10 August 2012

[email protected]

Page 6: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

1

Country Highlights

A mobile miniature biscuit factory has been set up under the pilot Purchase for Progress (P4P) initiative, which aims to bolster the food processing industry in Jalalabad by providing secure markets for farmers (WFP, 27 July 2012).

Policy+

AFGHANISTAN, Kabul (6 August 2012)Retail nominal prices

Data sources: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock and World Food Programme (WFP).

10 August 2012

Over the past week, staple food prices in Kabul market were relatively stable except for wheat prices increased by 5 percent from the previous week and were 13 percent above the prices observed a year earlier.

0

30

60

90

120

150

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Apr

12

May

12

4-Ju

n-12

11-J

un-1

2

18-J

un-1

2

25-J

un-1

2

2-Ju

l-12

9-Ju

l-12

16-J

ul-1

2

23-J

ul-1

2

30-J

ul-1

2

6-A

ug-1

2

AFA

/ kg

weekly data

Wheat Maize Rice (local) Chicken Cooking oil

Week of 6-Aug-12

Food item Market

Price (AFA/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice local Kabul 42.0 2.4% 1.8% 6.3% 21.2%

Wheat Kabul 18.0 5.9% 13.0% 6.6% -0.9%

Maize Kabul 20.0 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% -4.8%

Chicken Kabul 130.0 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% -6.0%

Cooking oil (AFA/Lt) Kabul 88.0 0.0% 2.6% 3.5% 0.4%

% change

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

Page 7: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

2

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Over the past week, staple food prices in Dhaka market were relatively stable except for chicken prices, which were 12 and 10 percent above the levels observed a month and three months ago, respectively.According to Integrated Regional Information Networks (IRIN), about 2.3 million chickens have been culled as a result of an outbreak of bird �u in 2007 . There were 171 outbreaks in 2011, and 21 so far in 2012.

Country Highlights

Policy+

BANGLADESH, Dhaka (6 August 2012)Retail nominal prices

Data source: Ministry of Agriculture.

10 August 2012

The government provides price support to farmers through a procurement programme that buys rice and paddy during the Boro season which account for 56 percent of the annual paddy production. The programme started in 3 May with a new procurement target (1 MMT) until 30 September 2012. As of 26 July, 0.5 MMT had been procured and 0.8 MMT had been contracted (Fortnightly Foodgrain Outlook 100, 31 July 2012).

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Apr

12

May

12

4-Ju

n-12

11-J

un-1

2

18-J

un-1

2

25-J

un-1

2

2-Ju

l-12

9-Ju

l-12

16-J

ul-1

2

23-J

ul-1

2

30-J

ul-1

2

6-A

ug-1

2

BD

T / k

g

weekly data

Rice (coarse) Wheat (flour) Chicken boiler Soybean Oil

Week of 6-Aug-12

Food item Market

Price (BDT/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Coarse rice Dhaka 29.0 1.8% 1.8% 2.7% -12.1%

Wheat flour Dhaka 31.0 0.0% 7.4% 4.2% 24.0%

Chicken broiler Dhaka 152.5 3.4% -11.9% -10.2% -16.5%

Soybean oil (BDT/lt) Dhaka 123.5 0.8% 2.5% -0.6% 12.3%

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

% change

Page 8: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

3

10 August 2012

BHUTAN, National Average (23 July 2012)Retail nominal prices

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Data source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forests.

Policy+

Red rice prices fell by 9 percent from the third to the fourth week of July and were 2 percent below the levels registered a year earlier.

Country Highlights

The Renewable Research and Development Centre at Wengkhar launched a Research and Extension Outreach programme to develop farmers’ capacities and improve rice varieties. Up to now, a total of �ve improved varieties of rice for low altitudes are being tested (BR 153, Radha, Karjat, Wengkhar Rey Kap 11 and IRL05006, Khamtee and Tsirang Zam) (Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, 10 August 2012).

0

20

40

60

80

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Apr

12

May

12

4-Ju

n-12

11-J

un-1

2

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un-1

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25-J

un-1

2

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l-12

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l-12

16-J

ul-1

2

23-J

ul-1

2

BTN

/ kg

weekly data

Red rice

Week of 23-Jul-12

% change

Food item Market

Price (BTN/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Red Rice National av 50.0 -9.1% -7.0% -9.1% -2.4%

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

Page 9: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

4

10 August 2012

CAMBODIA, Phnom Penh (6 August 2012)Wholesale nominal prices

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Staple food prices in Phnom Penh market have remained stable over the past week.

Country Highlights

NA

Policy+

Data source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forests and Fisheries.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Apr

12

May

12

4-Ju

n-12

11-J

un-1

2

18-J

un-1

2

25-J

un-1

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l-12

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l-12

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ul-1

2

23-J

ul-1

2

30-J

ul-1

2

6-A

ug-1

2

KH

R /

kg

Weekly data

Rice (mix)* Rice milled (Phkar Khney) Rice (Neangminh) Soybean

Week of 6-Aug-12

Food item Market

Price (KHR/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice (mix) Phnom Pehn 1,800 0.0% -4.6% 0.0% -14.3%

Rice (Phkar Khney) Phnom Pehn 2,700 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 8.0%

Rice (Neangminh) Phnom Pehn 2,200 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -4.3%

Chicken Phnom Pehn 20,000 0.0% -8.0% -9.1% -19.2%

Soybean oil Phnom Pehn 6,500 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

% change

Page 10: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

5

CHINA, Beijing (6 August 2012)Retail and wholesale nominal prices

10 August 2012

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Staple food prices in Beijing market have remained relatively stable over the past weeks.

Country Highlights

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.8 percent year on year in July, the slowest rate since February 2010. Food prices, which account for nearly one-third of the prices used to calcu-late China's CPI, edged up 2.4 percent in July from a year earlier. Surging vegetable prices were the driving force for the CPI's growth, contributing by 8 percent. Rain and �ooding a�ected vegetable production in many places during the peak supply season (Chinese Government, 9 August 2012).

Policy+

Data source: Beijing Municipal Bureau of Grain.

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

Aug

11

Sep

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Oct

11

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Dec

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12

4-Ju

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ul-1

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ul-1

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6-A

ug-1

2

CN

Y/ k

g

Weekly data

Rice (non-glutinous ) Wheat flour (Fuqiang) Chiken Soybean (RMB/lt)

Week of 6-Aug-12

Food item Market

Price (RMB/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Non-Glutinous Rice Beijing 5.2 0.0% -0.5% -1.7% -3.0%

Fuqiang Wheat Flour Beijing 3.6 -0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 2.8%

Chicken (w) Beijing 14.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -6.7%

Soybean oil RMB/lt Beijing 11.8 0.1% -0.2% 0.0% 3.2%

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

% change

Page 11: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

6

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Staple food prices in Delhi market have remained relatively stable over the past week except that wheat prices increased by 7 percent over the past week.

Country Highlights

According to the 4th advance foodgrain production estimates for 2011-12, India achieved the highest level ever on foodgrains production with 257 MMT against 245 MMT a year earlier. In particular, record production has been achieved for rice (104.3 MMT), wheat (94 MMT), cotton (35 million bales), and sugarcane (358 MMT) (Public Information Bureau, 17 July 2012).

Policy+

INDIA, Delhi (6 August 2012)Retail nominal prices

Data source: Ministry of Consumer A�airs and Public Food Distribution.

10 August 2012

0

10

20

30

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Apr

12

May

12

4-Ju

n-12

11-J

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un-1

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9-Ju

l-12

16-J

ul-1

2

23-J

ul-1

2

30-J

ul-1

2

6-A

ug-1

2

INR

/ kg

Weekly data

Rice Wheat

Week of 6-Aug-12

Food item Market

Price (INR/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice New Delhi 25.0 4.2% 2.0% -1.0% 5.8%

Wheat New Delhi 16.0 6.7% 4.9% 0.0% 6.7%

% change

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

Page 12: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

7

10 August 2012

INDONESIA, National Average (6 July 2012)Retail nominal prices

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Staple food prices in Indonesia have remained relatively stable since mid 2011, with the exception of chicken prices which were 11 percent above their levels observed three months ago.

Country Highlights

NA

Policy+

Data source: Ministry of Trade.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Apr

12

May

12

4-Ju

n-12

11-J

un-1

2

18-J

un-1

2

25-J

un-1

2

2-Ju

l-12

9-Ju

l-12

16-J

ul-1

2

23-J

ul-1

2

30-J

ul-1

2

6-A

ug-1

2

IDR

/ kg

Weekly data

Rice (medium quality) Wheat flour Soybean (local)

Week of 6-Aug-12 % change

Food item Market

Price (IDR/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice (medium quality) National av 8,016 0.2% 0.9% 1.5% 12.2%

Wheat flour National av 7,652 -0.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.0%

Chicken National av 27,172 -4.1% 8.4% 10.9% 2.8%

Soybean (local) National av 9,703 3.7% 7.9% 8.8% 10.4%

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

Page 13: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

8

10 August 2012

LAO PDR, Vientiane (30 July 2012)Retail nominal prices

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Staple food prices in Vientiane market have remained relatively stable over the past week except that:

- Glutinous rice prices fell by 12 percent over the past week and were 30 percent below the levels observed a month and a year ago.- Pork prices dropped by 6 percent from the previous week and were 13 percent below those observed a month ago.

Country Highlights

Lao PDR is on track to complete its WTO accession negotiations after this year’s summer break, and the country’s membership in the Geneva-based trade body is widely expected to be formal-ised before 2012 (International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, 18 July 2012).

Policy+

Data source: Ministry of Industry and Commerce.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

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Apr

12

May

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4-Ju

n-12

11-J

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2

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un-1

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9-Ju

l-12

16-J

ul-1

2

23-J

ul-1

2

30-J

ul-1

2

LAK

/ kg

Weekly data

Rice (glutinous 2nd quality) Rice (ordinary 2nd quality)

Week of 30-Jul-12 % change

Food item Market

Price (LAK/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice glutinous Vientiane 4,889 -11.5% -30.2% -30.2% -30.2%

Rice ordinary Vientiane 7,000 -3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Beef (2nd quality) Vientiane 47,667 2.9% 5.9% 5.9% 25.4%

Pork (2nd quality) Vientiane 28,000 -6.1% -12.5% -12.5% -17.6%

Chicken Vientiane 42,667 2.6% -5.2% -5.2% 6.7%

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

Page 14: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

8

10 August 2012

MYANMAR, Yangon and Mandalay (6 August 2012)Wholesale nominal prices

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Staple food prices in Myanmar have remained relatively stable over the past week except ttat:

- Wheat prices increased by 6 percent from the previous week and were 36 and 41 percent above the levels observed three months and a year ago, respectively.

Country Highlights

- A new radio programme funded by the Livelihoods and Food Security Trust Fund (LIFT) has been broadcasting local market prices of crops, from sesame and maize to peas and groundnuts, twice a day since March. In addition, they train farmers to analyse the information they hear so they can make better decisions (Alert Net, 12 July 2012). - The Ministry of Health has designated August “nutrition month” and plan to hold a series of national nutrition-related activities, including provision of vitamin A supplements , tablets to �ght tapeworms and awareness-raising about the bene�ts of iodine (Myanmar Times, 06 August 2012).

Policy+

Data source: E-Trade Myanmar.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Apr

12

May

12

4-Ju

n-12

11-J

un-1

2

18-J

un-1

2

25-J

un-1

2

2-Ju

l-12

9-Ju

l-12

16-J

ul-1

2

23-J

ul-1

2

30-J

ul-1

2

6-A

ug-1

2

MM

K/k

g

Weekly data

Rice (Manawthukha FQ) Maize Wheat (Monywa Origin)Groundnut oil (Special) Soybean (Theik pan) Palm oil

Week of 30-Jul-12 % change

Food item Market

Price (MMK/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice (Manawthukha FQ) Yangon 327 0.0% 0.3% 6.2% -9.9%

Wheat (Monywa Origin) Mandalay 615 5.6% 21.3% 35.9% 41.3%

Maize Mandalay 299 -0.8% 22.6% 39.4% 98.6%

Groundnut oil (Special) Yangon 2,715 2.6% 6.9% 13.6% 24.6%

Soybean (Theik pan) Yangon 547 1.9% 5.6% 5.1% 11.5%

Palm oil Mandalay 1,069 -1.1% 1.2% -6.3% -0.5%

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

Page 15: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

9

10 August 2012

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Staple food prices in Karachi market remained stable over the past week.

- Basmati rice prices were 30 percent higher that those observed a year earlier.

Country Highlights

NA

Policy+

PAKISTAN, Karachi (6 August 2012)Retail nominal prices

Data source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

0

15

30

45

60

75

Aug

-11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

4-Ju

n-12

11-J

un-1

2

18-J

un-1

2

25-J

un-1

2

2-Ju

l-12

9-Ju

l-12

16-J

ul-1

2

23-J

ul-1

2

6-A

ug-1

2

PK

R/ k

g

Weekly data

Rice (basmati)* Rice (IRRI) Wheat Wheat (flour)

Week of 6-Aug-12 % change

Food item Market

Price (PKR/

kg) 1 w

eek*

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice (basmati) Karachi 66.5 0.0% -0.7% 3.9% 27.3%

Rice (IRRI) Karachi 48.8 1.2% 1.3% 2.8% 9.5%

Wheat Karachi 27.5 0.2% 2.0% 2.4% 8.7%

Wheat flour Karachi 30.1 0.6% -2.5% -2.1% 5.4%

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

*M ost recent price data available from 23- Jul-2012

Page 16: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

10

10 August 2012

PHILIPPINES, National average and Metro Manila (6 August 2012)Retail nominal prices

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Country Highlights

Policy+

Data source: Department of Agriculture.

Staple food prices in the Philippines have remained largely stable since early 2011.

The Department of Agriculture proposes a medium-term nation-wide rural development programme, called the Philippine Rural Development Program (PRDP), initially covering six regions in Luzon and Visayas, in addition to all provinces covered under the current Mindanao Rural Development Program Phase 2 (MRDP2). PRDP will be patterned after the �ve-year MRDP2. MRDP has been implemented by the DA in partnership with the enrolled local government units (LGUs), and project bene�ciaries (O�cial Gazette, 02 August 2012).

0

10

20

30

40

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Apr

12

May

12

4-Ju

n-12

11-J

un-1

2

18-J

un-1

2

25-J

un-1

2

2-Ju

l-12

9-Ju

l-12

16-J

ul-1

2

23-J

ul-1

2

30-J

ul-1

2

6-A

ug-1

2

PH

P /

kg

Weekly data

Rice (regular milled) National av Rice (well milled) National av Corn (white) National av

Week of 6-Aug-12 % change

Food item Market

Price (PHP/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice (regular milled) National av 31.8 0.1% -1.3% -0.6% 1.1%

Rice (well milled) National av 35.5 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% 1.8%

Corn (white)* National av 19.7 0.0% -0.4% -0.3% 1.3%

Rice (regular milled) Metro Manila 30.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rice (well milled) Metro Manila 35.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

*M ost recent price data available from 23- Jul-2012

Page 17: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

11

Staple food prices in Samoan markets were relatively stable over the past month, except for:

- Taro palagi prices increased by 31 percent from June to July. Taro palagi prices were 82 percent above the levels observed a year ago.

Country Highlights

NA

Policy+

SAMOA, National Average (July 2011)Retail nominal prices

Data source: Samoa Bureau of Statistics.

10 August 2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Jul-1

1

Aug

-11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

Jun-

12

Jul-1

2

SA

T/ k

g

Taro Taro palagi Ta'amu Coconut Banana Chicken (leg quarters)

Month of Jul-12 % change

Food item Market

Price (SAT/

kg) 1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

3 ye

ars

Taro Fugalei 2.9 -7.1% 2.3% 20.2% -28.4%

Taro palagi Fugalei 3.5 30.6% -10.2% 81.6% 47.7%

Ta'amu Fugalei 3.6 -2.4% -29.5% 70.1% -17.5%

Coconut Fugalei 0.6 -6.9% -10.0% 8.0% 28.6%

Banana Fugalei 1.6 -6.5% 41.2% 84.6% 16.1%

Chicken (leg quarters)*National Av 4.6 0.5% 2.0% 6.7% -8.4%

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

Page 18: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

12

10 August 2012

SRI-LANKA, Colombo (23 July 2012)Retail nominal prices

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Staple food prices in Colombo have remained stable during the third week of July.

Country Highlights

NA

Policy+

Data source: Department of Census and Statistics.

0

30

60

90

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Apr

12

May

12

4-Ju

n-12

11-J

un-1

2

18-J

un-1

2

25-J

un-1

2

2-Ju

l-12

9-Ju

l-12

16-J

ul-1

2

23-J

ul-1

2

LKR

/ kg

Weekly data

Rice (white) Wheat (flour)

Week of 23-Jul-12 % change

Food item Market

Price (LKR/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice (white) Colombo 57.8 -0.6% 10.8% 11.3% 4.4%

Wheat flour Colombo 93.5 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 10.1%

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

Page 19: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

13

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Overall, staple food prices have remained largely stable over the past week.- Rice prices (25% brokens) were 13 and 26 percent above their levels a month and a year ago. - Pork prices were 14 percent below the prices observed a year ago.

Country Highlights

NA

Policy+

THAILAND, Bangkok (6 August 2012)Retail nominal prices

10 August 2012

Data source: Ministry of Trade.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Aug

11

Sep

11

Oct

11

Nov

11

Dec

11

Jan

12

Feb

12

Mar

12

Apr

12

May

12

4-Ju

n-12

11-J

un-1

2

18-J

un-1

2

25-J

un-1

2

2-Ju

l-12

9-Ju

l-12

16-J

ul-1

2

23-J

ul-1

2

30-J

ul-1

2

6-A

ug-1

2

THB

/ kg

Weekly data

Soybean oil White rice 25% (w)

Week of 6-Aug-12 % change

Food item Market

Price (THB/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

White rice 25% (w) Bangkok 16.2 0.6% -8.4% -6.8% 10.9%

Chicken Bangkok 59.0 -3.3% -5.0% -5.6% -28.9%

Pork tenderloin Bangkok 126.5 3.3% -0.8% -5.9% -20.3%

Soybean oil (Baht/lt) Bangkok 55.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

Page 20: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

10 August 2012

14

Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c

Staple food prices in Hanoi were relatively stable over the past week.

- Maize prices were 13 and 33 percent above those observed one month and a year ago, respectively.

Country Highlights

According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), rice exports from 1st January to 17th July, 2012 totalled 3.7 MMT (Agroviet, 25 July 2012).

Policy+

VIET NAM, Hanoi (6 August 2012)Retail nominal prices

Data source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

0

12,000

24,000

36,000

48,000

60,000

72,000

Aug

-11

Sep-

11

Oct

-11

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan-

12

Feb-

12

Mar

-12

Apr

-12

May

-12

4-Ju

n-12

11-J

un-1

2

18-J

un-1

2

25-J

un-1

2

2-Ju

l-12

9-Ju

l-12

16-J

ul-1

2

23-J

ul-1

2

30-J

ul-1

2

6-A

ug-1

2

VD

N/k

g

Weekly data

Rice (ordinary) Maize Pork

Week of 6-Aug-12 % change

Food item Market

Price (VND/

kg) 1 w

eek

1 m

onth

3 m

onth

s

1 ye

ar

Rice ordinary Hanoi 13,000 4.0% 3.1% 2.1% -4.3%

Maize Hanoi 12,000 0.0% 12.5% 20.0% 33.3%

Pork Hanoi 50,000 0.0% -1.0% -2.4% -33.3%

↑increase ↓ decrease → stable (+/-5% in a weekly basis),(+/-10 % in a monthly basis), and (+/-25% in an annual basis)

Page 21: Asia Paci˜c Weekly Price Monitor - fao.org

Disclaimer and Acknowledgements The Asia Paci�c Weekly Price Monitor is prepared by the Economic, Social and Policy Assistance Group (ESP) of FAO Regional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c with information from o�cial and uno�cial sources.Conditions can change rapidly and information may not always represent the current food price situation as of the present date . None of the country reports should be regarded in any way as statements of governmental views. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this newsbulletin do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerningthe legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This report has beenproduced with �nancial assistance from the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and can in no waybe taken to re�ect the views of the European Union.

The support of FAO Country O�ces and FAO's Food and Agriculture Policy Decision Analysis (FAPDA) are gratefully acknowledged for their contributions.

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