This is a 10 year outlook presentation for World Vision's work within Asia Pacific. It looks at the current development context across the region, the intensity of poverty and global mega trends which should be considered over the next 10 years. This presentation was delivered to the World Vision Asian Forum in August 2011 in Taiwan. The Forum is intended for Senior Leaders from World Vision and Board Members from Asian Offices.
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Transcript
Asia Pacific is home to almost ½ the world’s population
3.2Bn people live in Asia Pacific
80% of these people live in India & China
30% are under 18
30% live in urban areas
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Almost half the world’s population 6.9Bn = 3.2Bn live in Asia Pacific 10 times the population of America 1.57Bn live in East Asia (235Mn without China) 1.69Bn live in South Asia & Pacific (523Mn without India) Contrast with the small communities of the Pacific Islands (e.g. Solomon Islands popn 600K, 50% under 19, 33% under 10s are stunted & malnourished and 30% of the total population do not have access to improved water source) Source SAP strategy landscape Source: AP ROSM Strategy landscape data
Over half of these people live in poverty
1.7Bn people live on less than $2 a day
1.0Bn people experience multiple forms of poverty (MPI)
Equivalent to over 3 times the population of the USA
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48.3% living on less than $2/day in East Asia 61.5% living on less than $2/day in South Asia & Pacific What does that mean? $2/day adjusted for purchasing power parity, so the equivalent local currency to buy $2 worth of good in the US. 200Mn MPI incidence East Asia (33Mn without China) 800Mn MPI incidence in South Asia & Pacific (170Mn without India) (source SAP Strategy Landscape)
600Mn people undernourished
Asia Pacific,
590
Sub Saharn Africa,
230
LAC, 60
Number of Undernourished in 2010
(Millions)
Malnutrition is more widespread in Asia Pacific than anywhere else in the
world
100Mn children are malnourished
4 in 10 children in South Asia
1 in 13 children in East Asia
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NOTE: these figures are Chronic malnourished – in contrast to the acute malnourishment in the horn of Africa Source unicef
The average family in Asia Pacific spends 50% of their income on food. For the 1.7Bn living on less than $2/day that means they have $1 left to spend on shelter, education, health, transport and other living costs. Compare that to the US: A consumer spending survey in the US in 2009 showed that the average US consumer unit spent $49,000 a year. Including $6,000 or 13% on food, $17,000 (or 34%) on shelter, and $8,000 (15%) on transport. Food prices: Analysis of the 2008 food crisis suggests that prices spikes were linked to two things: Decreasing land productivity due to climate change, desertification and environmental degradation. Increased land being lost to dairy / livestock (because of increased consumption of dairy & meat) and emergence of agro fuels. Example: Meat consumption in China has increased 8 fold in the past 20 years. Rising from 7M kgs in 1987 to 57Mn kgs in 2007 The impact of these increases in food prices is most sever for the poorest and most marginalized groups Increased meat consumption – China increased consumption from 7Mn Kgs of Beef & Buffalo meat in 1987, to 57Mn Kgs in 2007. While the US reduced from 38Mn Kgs to 33Mn over the same period. (source gapminder)
1in 20 children die before the age of 5
13,700 children under 5 die every day
250,000 women die during pregnancy & childbirth each year
The majority of these deaths are preventable with better maternal care and improved access to water and sanitation.
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In Asia Pacific… Nearly ¾ of maternal mortality occurs within Asia. 250,000 is almost ¾ of the global figure of 342,000 Source: AP ROSM Strategy landscape data
1 in 3 children are not vaccinated against measles
9Mn people living with HIV/AIDS with 500,000 deaths each year
20Mn cases of malaria each year
3 out of 5 global TB cases are in Asia Pacific
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Average life expectancy is 67. Source: AP ROSM Strategy landscape data
Male & Female literacy rates are higher in East Asia than South Asia
Ethnic minorities and remote communities still miss out on education progress
Record numbers of children are attending school across Asia Pacific
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Male & female literacy rates are higher in East Asia (97%:97%) than in South Asia & Pacific, where girls are still disadvantaged (88%:82%) While attendance is up across the region concerns remain on the quality of education. Adult literacy is lower in both sub regions (82%, 70%) Source AP ROSM Landscape
Child protection presents significant challenges
100Mn children are engaged in child labour (80% of whom live in South Asia)
Child marriage affects 10-45% of children in Asia Pacific
Between 9-60% children are not registered at birth
1.2Mn children are trafficked
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100Mn children engaged in child labour: excludes China, 17Mn EAS, 83Mn SAP Compares with 85Mn children under 19 in Europe Sub-regions EAS 16%, SAP 35% Variance within groups: East Asia urban 10% SAP rural 45% Sub-regions EAS 12%, SAP 55% Variance within groups: East Asia urban 9%, SAP rural 60%
Inequality is a major issue in Asia Pacific with few winners and many losers
1994-96 1997-99 2000-02 2003-05 2006-08
GDP Per Capita by Wealth Quintile
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The graph shows economic distribution per quintile in Asia Pacific. The richest 20% have enjoyed significant economic gain in the past 15 years while the poorest 20% have missed out. Their economic situation has barely changed. Economic inequality is a world wide phenomenon but it particularly pronounced in Asia Pacific. Statistics from the World Bank show that 0.1% of the world’s population controlled 25% of the world’s financial assets in 2004. 1% of the world’s population own 40% of all good and services. The world’s wealthiest countries (approximately 1Bn people) accounted for 76% of the worlds gross domestic product (valued at $48.2Tn in 2006). The world’s poorest countries (approximately 2.4Bn people) accounted for 3% world GDP The poor and marginalized are missing out on health & education benefits of Asia Pacific’s economic growth.
Urbanization is changing poverty dynamics
111Mn urban poor do not have access to water
487Mn urban poor do not have access to improved sanitation
Urban poverty is a major contextual shift which challenges our development model
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111Mn equivalent to all the people in: UK, Australia and Canada 487Mn equivalent to all the people in: Taiwan, USA, Germany & Philippines In the developing world, 3Mn people migrate to cities every week Shelter, waste, technology, partners, mobility all issues that become more important within the urban context.
Natural disasters are fiercer and more frequent
266 disasters in the past 4 years
23,000 people killed
129Mn people affected
$11.5Bn damage
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Natural disasters are occurring more frequently with increased fallout within Asia Pacific AP is home to many of the world’s most vulnerable countries including: Bangladesh, india, Nepal, Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand. Natural disasters eroding economic gains across Asia Pacific Top 3 disasters: Floods: 132, Storms: 60, Earthquakes: 18 Top 3 countries: Philippines: 7, India: 63, Indonesia: 60 Source UNOCHA (WV HEA research) Changing face of HEA – increasing events in domestic / Support Offices – Japan, New Zealand…
Christians are a minority amidst incredible religious & cultural diversity
3,500 language & ethnic groups
Large populations of Hindus, Buddhists, Muslims, Taoist across the region
Deep social structures exist that exclude & divide communities.
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Source: AP ROSM Strategy landscape data
5 trends that promote pessimism
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In 2009 a team of senior leaders within World Vision looked at Global Mega Trends that will effect the children, families and communities we serve. This presentation has incorporated their findings and updated some of the trends based on current affairs.
1. Climate change
Rapid increase in CO2 emission
Displacement & migration as sea levels rise (especially Pacific)
New emergent diseases
Increasing competition over food & natural resources
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Climate change will most adversely effect the poorest & most vulnerable. We can expect a rapid increase in CO2 emissions. China is now the world’s largest CO2 emitter however per person rates are ¼ of those in the US. India is 50% of China and therefore we can expect significant growth in emissions over the mid term. Rising CO2 emissions will speed up climate change processes. If emissions stopped now – we can expect a 2-3 degree rise in global temperatures, this will lead to a 40-90cm rise in sea levels globally. What does that mean? With a 1m rise in sea levels, the Maldives will disappear and many Pacific Islands states will be severely impacted Bangladesh faces a 2 way disaster: 1) Climate change is increasing the rate of glacial melting in Nepal, deforestation and environmental degradation reduces natural capacity to absorb increased flooding which will lead to increased water flow in the 5 main rivers spanning Bangladesh 2) Rising tides and water levels will inundate the coastal area of Bangladesh as 70% of land is 5-10m above sea level. This 2 way effect of climate change is expected to create 100Mn climate change refugees 2) Emergence of new diseases: In 2006 Africans ate 2Bn kgs of bush meat because of decreasing land productivity and loss of agriculture. Each kg of bush meat contains 000s of new micro-organisms and parasites whose life-cycle is not fully understood or charted. Creating circumstances ripe for the transmission of new communicable diseases. Climate change will most adversely affect the poor and most vulnerable.
World population forecast to increase from 6.7Bn to 8Bn by 2025
Aging populations will drive healthcare spending China’s race to ‘Get rich before we get old’
2. Demographic changes
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World population forecast to growth from 6.7/6.9Bn today to 8Bn by 2025 and 9.1Bn by 2050 India will replace China as the world’s most populous county by 2025. Decline of the west – 8 out of the top ten aging populations in US&Europe However 2 out of the top ten aging populations will be in Asia – Japan & Singapore By 2025, 20% of people in Japan will be over 75 with many more Male than Female. Aging population and overconsumption (diabetes, heart disease) will drive global spending in healthcare which will almost double by 2050 with some countries spending 20-30% of GDP. (source Frost & Sullivan: Global Megatrends shaping our future.) Pressure on the state to provide healthcare services to an aging population. China’s dilemma to get rich before they get old. UN estimates that by 2050 40% of people in China will be over 60. Therefore the leadership have a single priority To provide rapid growth to ensure there is enough money to support high demand health services.
Scaling back trade agreements & free market economies Global economic stress & inability to absorb further shocks
3. De-globalization
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The global financial crisis of 2008 was estimated to have cost $11.9Tn by the IMF in 2009. Equivalent to $2892 per person living in the world. (source http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/5995810/IMF-puts-total-cost-of-crisis-at-7.1-trillion.html) One potential response is de-globalization as countries and regions develop protectionist policies to shore up domestic markets, increase trade tariffs to improve domestic production, scale up domestic manufacturing and withdraw from global markets. Within Western Europe there is increasing political pressure for de-globalization because of high domestic unemployment and increasing wages in emerging markets which reduce the benefits of global outsourcing. Global banks and institutes have a lower capacity to absorb shocks and a new financial crisis, or Inflation surges could trigger sharp rises in global interest rates and limit the availability of capital investment and raise risk ratings. China and east Asian countries with high savings rates may be protected but would have a negative impact on India. Asian economies are still transitioning from being export driven and therefore protectionist legislation will put growth plans under pressure.
Increasing mobility and displacement of households
Increasing ‘pressure points’ & competition for natural resources
4. Migration
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Migration may be more of an African issue however according to the UNHCR Asia Pacific is host to 37% of the world’s refugees and host to 4.2Mn refugees (includes Afghanistan and central asia) Increase in international migration through globalization Increase in internal displacement from conflict / resource scarcity / natural disasters / urbanization. Increased mobility and temporary shelter creates pressure points and has a negative effect on development Intense pockets of competition for resources, overcrowding and conditions for spread of diseases Exclusion from education: UNHCR reports that 73% of refugee / displaced adolescent girls and 66% of boys are excluded from school.
5. Conflict Increasing inequality and disparity
Rise of technology
Lack of trust & increase in social activism
Increased competition for resources
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Conflict as a symptom of many of the issues we have seen within the landscape: Inequality - 1% of the world control 40% of economic assets Rise of technology - With the internet, social media it has never been easier to mobilize support and unite around a common cause. Recent events in Egypt where Twitter was used to lobby public opinion against the Government Increased competition – migration / urbanization / climate change create conditions which are ripe for conflict. According to Larry Brilliant – in 2006 there were 260 conflicts over natural resources
Cu
mu
lative im
pa
ct
& m
ultip
liers
Inter-connected
ness
Speed
Stress
Black Swans
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Not just a single trend Timing between events in a globalized community Higher intensity of events / shocks
The case for optimism
1. Unprecedented Poverty reduction
Less than 900Mn people living in poverty by 2015
33% reduction in the number of children excluded from school 2009
12,000 fewer children under 5 dying every day
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MDG Progress report: Global figures: MDG 1: Fastest global reductions in Eastern Asia China in particular Poverty has fallen from 1.8Bn in 1990 to Under 900Mn by 2015 Recent reportby the Brookings Institute argued that this number may be closer to 600Mn China 5% living in poverty by 2015 India 22% living in poverty by 2015 MDG 2: Globally the number of children excluded from school dropped 106Mn in 1990 to 67Mn in 2009 Approx 23Mn are in Asia Pacific with 16Mn in South Asia Conflict is a major barrier Progress has slowed in the past 2 years MDG 4: Child mortality decreasing from 89 deaths per 1000 live births, to 60 in 2009. Despite population growth, the number of deaths in children under 5 worldwide declined from 12.4Mn in 1990 to 8.1Mn in 2009 which translates to 12,00 fewer deaths per year.
50% of World’s economy will be driven by Asia & Pacific by 2050
Increase in political and economic global influence
2. Rise of China & India
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Today Asia accounts for 35% of world’s GDP but this grows to 50% by 2050 Today China and India are driving economic development in the region but Vietnam & Indonesia will emerge as major economies Top 5 global economies in 2010: US $15Bn China $10Bn Japan $4.3BN India $4Bn Germany $3Bn Top 5 global economies in 2020: China $28.1Bn US $23Bn India $10Bn Japan $6Bn Russia $4Bn (source Euromonitor Internation from IMF) Asia is increasingly less reliant on the US as exports increase within the region. Data presented at the World Economic Forum by Credit Suisse show: Asian regional exports grew from 12% in 1993 to 30% in 2010 Meanwhile exports to America dropped from 50% to 37% Increase in political & economic influence Political & economic decline of the US and Europe
3. Rise of Technology
750Mn Active users
1Bn smartphones world wide
700Bn videos played on
Influence of Generation Y - ‘the fast and the furious’
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750Mn Active users on Facebook, 60Mn Facebook users in Asia – excluding China Rise of Twitter, Foursquare, LinkedIn Smartphones: 4Bn handphones world wide, 1Bn are smartphones and 60% of those are iphones. Mobile browsing is revolutionizing internet behaviour. ‘The computer in your cellphone today is a million times cheaper, a thousand times more powerful, and about a hundred times more powerful than the first computer ever made in 1946’ Location based services, increased interconnectedness, mobility & access many users uploading / updating content on their mobile device. Huge impact on Youbtue video: 700Bn played in 2010. Uploads generate more content in 60 days than the 3 major US TV networks generated in 60 years. Apple App store downloads: 3Bn in 2009 11Bn 2010 (value $6Bn) predicted to reach 76.9Bn in 2014. ($35Bn) Influence of Generation Y + X 18-24 age group is predominant in emergent Asian countries 25-34 predominant in Japan, Taiwan, Singapore Hong Kong etc Indonesia has the highest number of users Frost Report characteristics of Gen Y users in India & China: Personalization & Individualization Techno savvy and connected 24*7 Civic and environmentally friendly Demanding and Impatient – the fast and the furious
Rise of philanthropy Increased opportunity for collaboration
4. New development actors
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Growth & proliferation of traditional development actors. Entrance of new players: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bill Clinton, Warren Buffett, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg etc Larry Brilliant talks of Sudden Wealth Syndrome & new models of philanthropy, social entrepenuers New models of social activism – think tanks, academic networks, business communities Skoll foundation, TED talks etc Increasing public awareness of development issues Increasing desire for corporate responsibility and what Mohammad Yunus calls social capitalism – which encourages business leaders to develop business models which offset the negative aspects of capitalism by addressing environmental / social needs within communities / families / employees working for various companies. Demand for active participation in development, experience relationship, positioned as investment in personal goals
5. Increased focus Child well-being targets
Targeting most vulnerable
Leveraging activities for wider influence
More ‘bang for buck’ through robust strategy processes
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Within World Vision we now have an overarching Partnership strategy which provides target for growth and sharpens programmatic focus Higher priority on most vulnerable groups. Recognising that by 2025 the majority of the world’s poor will be in middle income countries – therefore need to look at sub country variance in development indicators Use of advocacy as a mechanism to leverage programme activities, using grant funded programmes to engage in national policy debates, encouraging regional co-operation to pool resources and share good practice. Strategy capacity within the national offices and within the region has increased greatly in the past few years, promoting good reflection, strategic investment and performance analysis before identifying National Office programme priorities. Partnership growth to 150Mn children by 2016 - with increased focus we should see better return on our investment and ‘more bang for buck’
Ch
ristian
p
ersp
ec
tive Hope
Love
Strength
Faith
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Larry Brilliant presents a case for optimism through human ingenuity and creativity and man’s fight against disease in particular smallpox. Mohamed Yunus from Grameen bank challenges us to develop responsible capitalism, to be inclusive to lift the poor out of poverty. As Christians we have an even stronger case for optimism, knowing that we are part of God’s redemptive plan and that God will be with us every step of the way. In preparing this presentation I have been reminded of 3 reasons for optimism: Help comes form the Lord – Psalms 122 ‘I lift my eyes to the mountains, where does my help come from? My help comes from the Lord, the Maker of Heaven and Earth As Christians we have weapons of divine power – 2 Corinthians 10 v3-4 ‘For though we live in the world we do not wage war as the world does. The weapons we fight with are not the weapons of the world. On the contrary they have divine power to demolish strongholds. God will give us strength even when we grow tired – Isaiah 40 v 28 ‘Those who hope in the Lord will renew their strength. They will soar on wings like eagles. They will run and not grow weary. They will walk and not be faint.
