15
Asia Pacific Weekly Price Monitor Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific Issue 60, 11 May 2012
Asia Pacific Weekly Price MonitorRegional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Issue 60, 11 May 2012
Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c
Highlights of the week
Over the past week, staple food commodity prices remained relatively stable except for:
- In Afghanistan wheat prices increased by 3 percent but remained unchanged from those observed both a month and a year ago. Maize prices increased by 3 percent, and were 21 percent below the levels a year earlier.
- Wheat �our prices in Bangladesh fell by 3 percent but remained 7 percent highler than a year earlier. Chicken prices increased by 5 percent and were 17 percent lower than those registered a year ago.
- In Myanmar groundnut oil increased by 2 percent and remained 4 percent above the prices a year earlier. Soybean prices increased by 5 percent and were 5 percent below the prices observed a year ago.
- In Viet Nam pork prices fell by 5 percent and were 16 percent below the levels observed a year earlier.
Please refer to the “Price and policy information at country level” section for further details.
Policy Prices
Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c
National
The Renewable Natural Resources (RNR) Research Policy of Bhutan was approved by the Government during the last week of April 2012. Its main purpose is to transform subsistence agriculture into commercial-based agricul-ture.
China issued a draft proposal on agricultural insurance regulations to solicit public opinion. The most salient features include (i) agricultural insurance support through favourable �nancing and tax policies (duties will be speci�ed by concerned departments); and (ii) a public-private approach.
Weather conditions
In Myanmar water shortages a�ected the harvested �elds in Thongwa district due to poor water infrastructure and extreme hot weather (Myanmar Times, 7 May 2012).
Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c
Price Monitoring Model
IN FOCUS: ThailandPrice Movements (Rice 25 % brokens wholesale prices, Bangkok market*)
Technical note
The FAO Price Monitoring Model is a simple tool designed to assist policy makers, farmers and traders in assessing whether
recent price trends are in line with those typically observed in the past. The purpose of the model is to determine whether
short-term price movements of a commodity exceed a benchmark which takes into consideration seasonality, in�ation and
historic variability. The model uses only data on past prices and the consumer price index (CPI) to capture these characteris-
tics. It establishes an expected level of price for the following month along with a range of uncertainty generated by past
deviations from expected prices. Price movements can be interpreted as “excessive” if prices fall outside the benchmark
range. The di�erence between the actual price and the “benchmark price” (1 month in advance) that was forecasted for that
same month is also calculated by the model although not shown in the graph. An additional feature of the model is to
show the current level of prices relative to an average of past prices during the past four years (adjusted for in�ation). For
details on the model, please see: http://www.foodsec.org/web/publications/briefs/
The benchmark price for May is THB 15.41 (with a benchmark range of THB 14.81 – 16.00 per kilo), which would represent an 11 percent decline from December 2011. If prices follow normal seasonal patterns during the next three months, wholesale nominal prices for rice 25% brokens are likely to fall within a benchmark range of THB 14.09-17.24 per kilo. The graph shows that recent price movements have not been in line with those typically observed over the past 7 years. First, prices normally rise from December to February, but this time the pattern was inverted. The most likely reason was the entry of India into the world market after a four year absence, put pressure on Thai export and domestic prices. Second, prices normally fall from February to April by about 6 percent (the average past price line), but actual prices (green line) increased by 5 percent instead. As a result, actual prices for March and April were above the benchmark range. This could be because the o� season harvest (normally starting in March ) was delayed due to late planting (because of the �oods in the last quarter of 2011, in some cases extending into the �rst quarter of 2012). Further, the pace of Indian exports has slowed to some extent due to port conges-tion. Presently, the Thai government is holding total intervention stocks of around 8.1 MMT (milled equivalent) from the 2011/12 crop**, equivalent to 26 percent of the total estimated output for 2011-12.
*Price information is taken from the Bank of Thailand and the Department of Internal Trade. **USDA, Thailand Rice Price Weekly (8 May 2012).
16.00
16.65
17.24
14.81
14.57
14.09
17.35
16.45
15.16
14.24
14.47
15.41
15.61
15.66
15.93
16.1516.31
15.75
15.29
16.32
15.14
14.88 14.98
15.58
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 June 12 July 12TH
B/k
g
Benchmark range
Benchmark price (one month in advance)Average past price
Actual price
Benchmark forecast
Price and policy information at country level
Issue 60, 11 May 2012
Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c
1
Country Highlights
NA
Policy+
AFGHANISTAN, Kabul (07 May 2012)Retail nominal prices
Data sources: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock and World Food Programme (WFP).
Issue 60, 11 May 2012
Staple food prices in Kabul market have remained stable over the past week except for wheat �our and maize.- Wheat prices increased by 3 percent over the past week but were unchanged from those observed both a month and a year ago. - Maize prices increased by 3 percent from the previous week, and were 21 percent lower than a year earlier.
Week of 7-May-12
Food item Market
Price (AFA/
kg) 1 w
eek
1 m
onth
3 m
onth
s
1 ye
ar
Rice local Kabul 37.0 0.0% 3.1% 0.7% 5.7%
Wheat Kabul 17.9 5.0% 0.4% 1.3% 0.1%
Maize Kabul 19.0 2.7% 6.3% 5.6% -20.8%
Chicken Kabul 125.0 0.0% -9.9% -12.3% 11.9%
Cooking oil (AFA/Lt) Kabul 85.0 0.0% 0.0% -0.3% 6.7%
→ (+/-2%) stable ↑increase ↓ decrease
% change
0
30
60
90
120
150
May
11
Jun
11
Jul 1
1
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct
11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
05-M
ar-1
2
12-M
ar-1
2
19-M
ar-1
2
26-M
ar-1
2
02-A
pr-1
2
09-A
pr-1
2
16-A
pr-1
2
23-A
pr-1
2
30-A
pr-1
2
07-M
ay-1
2
AFA
/ kg
weekly data
Wheat Maize Rice (local) Chicken Cooking oil
2
Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c
Staple food prices in Dhaka market have remained stable over the past week except for wheat �our and chicken prices. - Rice prices were 12 percent below the prices observed a year ago.- Wheat �our prices fell by 3 percent over the past week but remained 7 percent above the levels a year earlier.- Chicken prices increased by 5 percent from the previous week, and remained 17 percent lower than those registered a year ago.
Country Highlights
Policy+
BANGLADESH, Dhaka (7 May 2012)Retail nominal prices
Data source: Ministry of Agriculture.
Issue 60, 11 May 2012
NA
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
May
11
Jun
11
Jul 1
1
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct
11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
05-M
ar-1
2
12-M
ar-1
2
19-M
ar-1
2
26-M
ar-1
2
02-A
pr-1
2
09-A
pr-1
2
16-A
pr-1
2
23-A
pr-1
2
30-A
pr-1
2
07-M
ay-1
2
BD
T / k
g
weekly data
Rice (coarse) Wheat (flour) Chicken boiler Soybean Oil
Week of 7-May-12
Food item Market
Price (BDT/
kg) 1 w
eek
1 m
onth
3 m
onth
s
1 ye
ar
Coarse rice Dhaka 28.0 -1.8% -2.2% -3.4% -11.5%
Wheat flour Dhaka 30.0 -3.2% -7.7% -4.0% 7.1%
Chicken broiler Dhaka 152.5 5.2% -1.2% -0.4% -16.5%
Soybean oil (BDT/lt) Dhaka 124.5 0.0% 1.2% 1.2% 17.5%
→ (+/-2%) stable ↑increase ↓ decrease
% change
3
Issue 60, 11 May 2012
BHUTAN, National Average (7 May 2012)Retail nominal prices
Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c
Data source: Ministry of Agriculture and Forests.
Policy+
Red rice prices have not changed since late January 2012 and remained 22 percent above the prices observed a year ago.
Country Highlights
The Renewable Natural Resources (RNR) Research Policy of Bhutan was approved by the Government in the last week of April 2012. Its main purpose is to transform subsistence agricul-ture into commercial-based agriculture. The formulation of a research strategy framework for the 11th Five Year Plan started through multidisciplinary discussions (among RNR Research Institutes, Central Programmes Agriculture and Forests, Council for RNR Research of Bhutan (CoRRB) and other relevant agencies) in early May (Ministry of Agriculture and Forests, 10 May 2012).
0
20
40
60
80
May
11
Jun
11
Jul 1
1
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct
11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
05-M
ar-1
2
12-M
ar-1
2
19-M
ar-1
2
26-M
ar-1
2
02-A
pr-1
2
09-A
pr-1
2
16-A
pr-1
2
23-A
pr-1
2
30-A
pr-1
2
07-M
ay
BTN
/ kg
weekly data
Red rice
Week of 7-May-12
Food item Market
Price (BTN/
kg) 1 w
eek
1 m
onth
3 m
onth
s
1 ye
ar
Red Rice National av 55.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.2%
% change
→ (+/-2%) stable ↑increase ↓ decrease
4
Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c
Staple food prices in Delhi market have remained relatively stable over the past year. - Rice prices were 9 percent above the prices observe a year ago.- Wheat prices remained 7 percent above the prices registered a year ago.
Country Highlights
NA
Policy+
INDIA, Delhi (7 May 2012)Retail nominal prices
Data source: Ministry of Consumer A�airs and Public Food Distribution.
Issue 60, 11 May 2012
0
10
20
30
May
11
Jun
11
Jul 1
1
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct
11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
05-M
ar-1
2
12-M
ar-1
2
19-M
ar-1
2
26-M
ar-1
2
02-A
pr-1
2
09-A
pr-1
2
16-A
pr-1
2
23-A
pr-1
2
30-A
pr-1
2
07-M
ay-1
2
INR
/ kg
Weekly data
Rice Wheat
Week of 7-May-12
Food item Market
Price (INR/
kg) 1 w
eek
1 m
onth
3 m
onth
s
1 ye
ar
Rice New Delhi 25.0 0.0% 4.2% 4.2% 8.7%
Wheat New Delhi 16.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7%
→ (+/-2%) stable ↑increase ↓ decrease
% change
5
Issue 60, 11 May 2012
INDONESIA, National Average (7May2012)Retail nominal prices
Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c
Staple food prices in Indonesia have remained relatively stable since mid 2011. - Rice and wheat prices �uctuated between IDR 7,500-7,900 (USD 0.82- 0.87) per kilo during April. Rice prices remained 12 percent above the levels one year earlier, while wheat prices remained almost at the same level observed in 2011.
Country Highlights
NA
Policy+
Data source: Ministry of Trade.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
May
11
Jun
11
Jul 1
1
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct
11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
05-M
ar-1
2
12-M
ar-1
2
19-M
ar-1
2
26-M
ar-1
2
02-A
pr-1
2
09-A
pr-1
2
16-A
pr-1
2
23-A
pr-1
2
30-A
pr-1
2
07-M
ay-1
2
IDR
/ kg
Weekly data
Rice (medium quality) Wheat flour Soybean (local)
Week of 7-May-12 % change
Food item Market
Price (IDR/
kg) 1 w
eek
1 m
onth
3 m
onth
s
1 ye
ar
Rice (medium quality) National av 7,948 -0.2% -2.0% -2.4% 12.2%
Wheat flour National av 7,570 0.1% 0.0% -0.5% 1.0%
Chicken National av 24,143 -0.6% -0.8% -4.3% 3.6%
Soybean (local) National av 8,900 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7%
→ (+/-2%) stable ↑increase ↓ decrease
6
Issue 60, 11 May 2012
LAO PDR, Vientiane (23 April 2012)Retail nominal prices
Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c
Staple food prices in Vientiane have remained stable since November 2010.- Rice prices (ordinary) remained 7 percent below the prices observed a year ago, , while glutinous rice remained the same.- Beef and chicken prices were 19 and 13 percent above the levels registered a year earlier.
Country Highlights
The National Assembly will discuss the draft of the Strategy on Land Policy and Natural Resources, and a draft Strategy on Rural Development and Poverty Eradication for 2012-2013 during the session in June (National Portal of Lao PDR, 8 May 2012).
Policy+
Data source: Ministry of Industry and Commerce.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Apr
11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul 1
1
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct
11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
05-M
ar-1
2
12-M
ar-1
2
19-M
ar-1
2
26-M
ar-1
2
02-A
pr-1
2
09-A
pr-1
2
16-A
pr-1
2
23-A
pr-1
2
LAK
/ kg
Weekly data
Rice (glutinous 2nd quality) Rice (ordinary 2nd quality)
Week of 23-Apr-12 % change
Food item Market
Price (LAK/
kg) 1 w
eek
1 m
onth
3 m
onth
s
1 ye
ar
Rice glutinous Vientiane 7,000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rice ordinary Vientiane 7,000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -6.7%
Beef (2nd quality) Vientiane 45,000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2%
Pork (2nd quality) Vientiane 32,000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8%
Chicken Vientiane 45,000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5%
→ (+/-2%) stable ↑increase ↓ decrease
7
Issue 60, 11 May 2012
MYANMAR, Yangon and Mandalay (7 May 2012)Wholesale nominal prices
Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c
Staple food prices in Myanmar were stable over the past week except for rice, groundnut oil and soybean.- Rice prices increased by 5 percent and were 21 percent below the levels observed in 2011.- Groundnut oil increased by 2 percent during the last week and remained 4 percent above the prices in 2011.- Soybean prices increased by 5 percent from the previous week and were 5 percent below those observed a year ago.
Country Highlights
NA
Policy+
Data source: E-Trade Myanmar.
Week of 7-May-12 % change
Food item Market
Price (MMK/
kg) 1 w
eek
1 m
onth
3 m
onth
s
1 ye
arRice (Manawthukha FQ) Yangon 289 5.2% 2.0% 0.3% -20.9%
Wheat (Monywa Origin) Mandalay 431 0.0% -4.8% -9.0% 1.6%
Maize Mandalay 215 0.9% 8.4% 6.4% 37.5%
Groundnut oil (Special) Yangon 2,337 2.3% 5.7% 8.9% 3.6%
Soybean (Theik pan) Yangon 518 4.7% 14.7% 12.9% -5.4%
Palm oil Mandalay 1,181 -0.8% 5.3% 11.3% -22.6%
→ (+/-2%) stable ↑increase ↓ decrease
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Apr
11
May
11
Jun
11
Jul 1
1
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct
11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
05-M
ar-1
2
12-M
ar-1
2
19-M
ar-1
2
26-M
ar-1
2
02-A
pr-1
2
09-A
pr-1
2
30-A
pr-1
2
MM
K/k
g
Weekly data
Rice (Manawthukha FQ) Maize Wheat (Monywa Origin)Groundnut oil (Special) Soybean (Theik pan) Palm oil
8
Issue 60, 11 May 2012
Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c
Staple food prices in Karachi market remained relatively stable over the past week. Rice (basmati) and wheat prices remained 23 and 11 percent above the prices observed a year ago, respec-tively.
Country Highlights
Provincial Disaster Management Authorities and the Education Department and partner NGOs in Pakistan, started a School Safety Programme in priority districts for school children and teachers to help boost community awareness on disaster preparedness (WFP, 3 May 2012).
Policy+
PAKISTAN, Karachi (7 May 2012)Retail nominal prices
Data source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
0
15
30
45
60
75
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug
-11
Sep-
11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
05-M
ar-1
2
12-M
ar-1
2
19-M
ar-1
2
26-M
ar-1
2
02-A
pr-1
2
09-A
pr-1
2
16-A
pr-1
2
23-A
pr-1
2
30-A
pr-1
2
07-M
ay-1
2
PK
R/ k
g
Weekly data
Rice (basmati) Rice (IRRI) Wheat Wheat (flour)
Week of 7-May-12 % change
Food item Market
Price (PKR/
kg) 1 w
eek
1 m
onth
3 m
onth
s
1 ye
ar
Rice (basmati) Karachi 61.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.4%
Rice (IRRI) Karachi 47.1 -1.1% 2.4% 3.4% 11.5%
Wheat Karachi 26.9 -0.6% -2.4% -2.0% 10.9%
Wheat flour Karachi 30.7 -0.5% -0.6% -0.1% 7.5%
→ (+/-2%) stable ↑increase ↓ decrease
9
Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c
Overall, staple food prices have remained largely stable over the past week.- Chicken prices were 36 percent below the levels observed a year earlier.- Pork prices remained 16 percent above the prices observed a month ago.
Country Highlights
The upcoming Thai Rice Forum 2012 will discuss Thai rice situation, particularly (i) the removal of tari�s and non-tari� barriers between ASEAN member countries; and (ii) climate change and the greenhouse e�ect on rice production (Thai Public Relations Department, 11 May 2012).
Policy+
THAILAND, Bangkok (7 May 2012)Retail nominal prices
Issue 60, 11 May 2012
Data source: Ministry of Trade.
0
50
100
150
200
May
11
Jun
11
Jul 1
1
Aug
11
Sep
11
Oct
11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
05-M
ar-1
2
12-M
ar-1
2
19-M
ar-1
2
26-M
ar-1
2
02-A
pr-1
2
09-A
pr-1
2
16-A
pr-1
2
23-A
pr-1
2
30-A
pr-1
2
07-M
ay-1
2
THB
/ kg
Weekly data
White rice 100% White rice 5% Chicken meat Pork tenderloin Soybean oil
Week of 7-May-12 % change
Food item Market
Price (THB/
kg) 1 w
eek
1 m
onth
3 m
onth
s
1 ye
ar
White rice 100% Bangkok 28.67 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
White rice 5% Bangkok 24.67 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicken Bangkok 62.5 0.0% -7.4% -15.3% -35.9%
Pork tenderloin Bangkok 137.5 1.9% 15.5% 12.2% -5.2%
Soybean oil (Baht/lt) Bangkok 55.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
→ (+/-2%) stable ↑increase ↓ decrease
Issue 60, 11 May 2012
10
Asia Paci�c Weekly Price MonitorRegional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c
Staple food prices in Hanoi remained stable over the past week except for pork prices which fell by 5 percent and remained 16 percent below the levels observed a year earlier.
Country Highlights
NAPolicy+
VIET NAM, Hanoi (7 May 2012)Retail nominal prices
Data source: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
Week of 7-May-12 % change
Food item Market
Price (VND/
kg) 1 w
eek
1 m
onth
3 m
onth
s
1 ye
ar
Rice ordinary Hanoi 12,750 -1.9% -4.3% -1.5% -4.1%
Maize Hanoi 10,000 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 25.0%
Pork Hanoi 48,000 -5.0% -12.3% -17.8% -16.4%
→ (+/-2%) stable ↑increase ↓ decrease
0
12,000
24,000
36,000
48,000
60,000
72,000
May
-11
Jun-
11
Jul-1
1
Aug
-11
Sep-
11
Oct
-11
Nov
-11
Dec
-11
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
05-M
ar-1
2
12-M
ar-1
2
19-M
ar-1
2
26-M
ar-1
2
02-A
pr-1
2
09-A
pr-1
2
16-A
pr-1
2
23-A
pr-1
2
30-A
pr-1
2
07-M
ay-1
2
VD
N/k
g
Weekly data
Rice (ordinary) Maize Pork
Disclaimer and Acknowledgements The Asia Paci�c Weekly Price Monitor is prepared by the Economic, Social and Policy Assistance Group (ESP) of FAO Regional O�ce for Asia and the Paci�c with information from o�cial and uno�cial sources.Conditions can change rapidly and information may not always represent the current food price situation as of the present date . None of the country reports should be regarded in any way as statements of governmental views. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this newsbulletin do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations concerningthe legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This report has beenproduced with �nancial assistance from the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and can in no waybe taken to re�ect the views of the European Union.
The support of FAO Country O�ces, FAO's Food and Agriculture Policy Decision Analysis (FAPDA) and the European Union through the EC-FAO FoodSecurity Programme “Linking information and decision-making to improve food security in selected countries of the Greater Mekong Subregion”are gratefully acknowledged for their contributions.
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