14
Asia Solar Energy Forum
Asia Solar Energy Forum
SOLAR – MALAYSIA
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MW
YEAR
Target (MW) Allocation (MW) Awarded (MW) Comissioned (MW)
Source: SEDA, KETTHA
BIOMASS - MALAYSIA
Source: SEDA, KETTHA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MW
YEAR
Target (MW) Allocation (MW) Awarded (MW) Comissioned (MW)
BIOGAS - MALAYSIA
Source: SEDA, KETTHA
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MW
YEAR
Target (MW) Allocation (MW) Awarded (MW) Comissioned (MW)
HYDRO - MALAYSIA
Source: SEDA, KETTHA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MW
YEAR
Target (MW) Allocation (MW) Awarded (MW) Comissioned (MW)
Target VS Commissioned
2012-2014 M
W
Solar Hydro Biomass Biogas 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Total Target (MW) Total Commisioned (MW)
785 MW 283 MW
1. Grid Parity with Subsidised gas price reach in 2016 (Ground) and 2018 (Rooftop)
2. Grid Parity with actual gas price reach in 2013 (Ground) and 2014 (Rooftop)
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tariff
Year Rooftop FIT Rate Ground FIT Rate OCC Subsidised Gas Price OCC Actual Gas Price
SOLAR FIT RATE VS
OPEN CYCLE IPP RATE
FINANCIAL BENEFIT OF 30MW 2016 GROUND
MOUNTED SOLAR PROJECT
0.5 0.5
0.51 0.51 0.52
0.53 0.53 0.54
0.55
0.56 0.57 0.57
0.58
0.6 0.61
0.62 0.63
0.64
0.65
0.67 0.68
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036
Fe
ed
-In
Ta
riff (
RM
)
Year
Solar Ground Mounted Tariff (RM) OCC IPP Tariff based on Subsidised Gas
Total Solar Benefit
RM 42 Million
Net Present Value at 8%
RM 10.6 Million
Subsidy Zone Benefit Zone Crossover Point
(25,000,000)
(20,000,000)
(15,000,000)
(10,000,000)
(5,000,000)
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
(RM
)
Year
Net Savings of A 30 MW Solar Power Plant
Net Savings for Rooftop With Subsidy (RM)
30MW
Net Savings for Rooftop Without Subsidy (RM)
30MW
Net Savings for Ground With Subsidy (RM)
30MW
Net Savings for Ground Without Subsidy (RM)
30MW
FINANCIAL IMPACT TO UTILITY
ECONOMIC BENEFIT
• Financial Net Present Value to Utility with subsidised gas price is (RM 10 Million)
• Financial Net Present Value to Utility with Actual gas price is RM 113 Million
• Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) of a solar power plant is 19%
• Economic Net Present Value (ENPV) of a solar power plant is RM 252 Million
Operating Costs
of Open Cycle
Gas Turbine
Climate Change
Healthcare
Costs
Fuel Costs
(Unsubsidised)
ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF A 30MW POWER PLANT - YEAR 2012
20%
55%
7%
18%
NO SMART 1/2 SMART VERY SMART
Developers • Can’t do
anything
• Smart enough to
get allocation
• Not smart enough
to deliver
• Smart enough to get
allocation
• Smart enough to deliver
Bankers
Financial
• No vision to
support
• Want to support
• Issues LOIs but
either does not
finance or at
unreasonable
terms
• Successfully finances
projects
-Contractor Financing
-Pre /Post commissioning
Project Financing
- Refinancing
eg : Yield Co
Policy
Makers
• No vision
• No framework
• Have framework
but
- Not reflective of
actual costs
- Economic Benefits
not realised
- Not market driven
• Long term framework with
- True costs reflected
- Economically sensitive
- Sustainable Market approach
- Subsidies for short term and
impactful
SMART MATRIX
High Damage Moderate Impact High Benefit
MARKETING
I want your money
Good value for money Good Service
Highly Professional and on time
Lots of competitors
I AM BETTER
I want your waste
Pay you for Environmental Service
Typically – First/Early Developers
CONCLUSION
Definitely Economically Essential
Financially Viable when true Market Values Considered
Short Term Costs Outweighed by Long Term Benefits
Develop Policy Framework and leave to the market
