AsianTigers_ian-feb10_issue

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTORS REPORT

Asian TigersWelcome to our first edition of 2010. The Year of the Tiger.

The Tiger is one of the 12-year cycle of animals that appear in the Chinese zodiac related to the Chinese Calendar. Another name for the Chinese calendar is the “Yin Calendar”. Since the time of Emperor Wu of Han, starting the new year on the second new moon after the winter solstice has been the norm for more than two thousand years.

Asian Tigers magazine is true to the Tiger tradition of being bold and ambitious. We bring you regular monthly articles that are expertly written, sometimes bold in their nature, and innovative in their approach to our readers throughout Asia.

This month in our cover story, ‘Noynoy, The Third Benigno Aquino’, writer Marisse Reyes asks; what’s in a name? In the case of Senator Benigno Simeon Aquino III, more popularly known as Noynoy, his surname does not only hint at his pedigree or bloodline, but also the story of both a family and a nation. Will he be the Philippines next President? Many think so.

Our regular columnist Jack Dixon asks the question ‘Can China ride out the Tiger’s tempest? Is China poised for even greater economics this year?

Read on to find out, and as always, please let us know your views.

Also, check out our new 2010 look website at asiantir.org

Happy reading and investing

Charlie Greene

歡迎閱讀2010年第一期亞洲虎雜誌，今年是我們的「本命年」。

虎是中國農曆十二生肖之一。農曆，又稱陰曆，從漢武帝時起，就把冬至之後第二個朔日作為新年伊

始，一直沿襲了兩千多年。

亞洲虎雜誌秉承勇敢進取的猛虎精神，每月為亞洲讀者呈獻精彩文章，有的言辭犀利、一針見血，有的

精闢獨到，發人深省。

本期的封面故事是「諾諾：班尼格諾·阿基諾的第三代傳人」，作者 Marisse Reyes 提出這樣的問題：

一個人的名字究竟有何深意？諾諾的本名是班尼格諾·西蒙·阿基諾三世，阿基諾這個姓氏，不僅是宗

族血脈的體現，更代表著一個家族乃至一個國家的傳奇故事。將來的菲律賓總統非他莫屬？想必許多人

都把他看好。

我們的專欄作者Jack Dixon的文章是「充滿考驗的一年：中國能否虎口脫險？」。

更多精彩，盡在亞洲虎雜誌，同時也歡迎您發表觀點與看法。

新年新氣象，歡迎訪問新版亞洲虎網站：www.asiantir.org。

祝您閱讀愉快，投資順利！

Charlie Greene

Editor in Chief Charles Greene

Managing EditorMark Wayne

ContributorsChris Champion David Bowden Steven Lunt Jack Dixon Dr. Bernardo Villegas Emilio Antonio Jr. Ricardo Barcelona Wang Yuanchang Michelle Foong Chethan Kambi Marisse Reyes Ivan Fernandez

Circulation ManagerBonnie Tsang

Production ManagerFerdie Ng

Design & LayoutRommel Domondon

Design AssistantsGian Carlo Bernal, Chris Wood, Ma. Christina Roxas, Arnel Mojica

Marketing & AdvertisingJanina Garcia [email protected]

Editorial & CommentsEric Wong [email protected]

Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. Suite 8156, 3905 Two Exchange Square 8 Connaught Place Central Hong Kong

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Asian Tigers magazine is published bi-weekly by Asian Tigers Investor Report, Co. and is produced for them by Global Integrated Media Ltd.

From the Editor’s Desk

編輯寄語

The Asian Tiger Investor Report Website (www.asiantir.com), provides a wealth of services to both the Asian investor as well as investors globally who are interested in the Asian market. In addition to the latest financial news, stock quotes, financial calendars and forex rates, you can also find these additional features:

Featured Company News - The place to look for news on companies that are making news.

Expert Columns - Asian Tiger Investor Report features exclusive commentary from globally recognized columnists who are experts in their fields.

Ask The Legal Experts - The complexities surrounding financial transactions can present a daunting minefield for investors. Gain expert help for your queries on securities and other transactions here.

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Detective Stock - Determine the worthiness of an equity and/or answer important questions about any specific stock.

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT | FEBRUARY 2010

Contents

Asian Private CapitalIncentives and bureaucratic burdens conundrum!亞洲私人資本－激勵措施與官僚體制負擔迷局！作者/by Ricardo Barcelona

Noynoy, The Third Benigno Aquino美元：中國的兩難選擇作者/by Marisse Reyes

Year of Dealing Dangerously… Can China ride out the Tiger’s tempest?充滿考驗的一年...中國能否虎口脫險？作者/by Jack Dixon

Security is Hong Kong’s Priority: Opportunities in Security and Smart Cards Markets安全第一：香港安防產品和智能卡市場的商機作者/by by Michelle Foong

India’s Commercial MRO Market – Ready to Take-Off印度商業 MRO 市場－起飛在即作者/by Chethan Kambi

Malaysia Begins a New Decade亞洲引領全球作者/by David Bowden

AFTA after 18 years: Assessing the Pace, Directions, Gains and Losses東盟自由貿易區18年歷程：評估進展步伐、指引及得失作者/by Emilio Antonio Jr.

Hometown of the Tiger老虎故乡虎虎生气作者作者/by Wang Yuanchang

Wind power in Australia: Gathering momentum澳洲蓬勃發展的風力發電事業作者/by Ivan Fernandez

Some harsh lessons for Australia澳洲的慘痛教訓

The Greatest Show on Earth – Shanghai in the Spotlight ASEAN Exchange風從海上來–上海世博倒計時

Asia to Lead Global Growth亞洲引領全球作者/by Bernardo Villegas

Features

Asia

7

13

18

23

29

32

36 59

Departments4

67

The Numbers Game 數字的遊戲作者/by Chris Champion

Technical Overview of Markets

ATIR Market Report

38

41

48

55

65

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Asian Tigers Investor Report Co.: Suite 8156, 3905 Two Exchange Square, 8 Connaught Place, Central Hong KongOn the Cover:

41 South Korea Polishesup its Investor Image

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FEBRUARY 2010

4 Opinion

ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT |

GameNumbersThe

專欄作者/by Chris Champion

數字的遊戲

Neither a borrower ...莫借債...

The US Federal reServe SUrpriSed a few people in mid-January with a new set of rules on credit cards which were firmly skewed in favour of the consumer. The Fed’s 1,155 pages of rules were welcomed by consumer groups which have long been pointing at the modern phenomenon of mountainous personal debt.

1月中旬，美國聯儲局頒佈一套有關信

用卡的新規則，新規則堅定地維護消費者

的利益，令一些人深感意外。聯儲局的這

套規則長達1,155頁，受到消費者群體的歡

迎，而這個群體一直十分關注現代社會中

個人債務沉重的現象。

We thought it would be interesting to collect a few facts and quotes on the subject.我們相信，收集一些與之相關的事實和

引言，一定非常有趣。

More than 175 million new credit cards were approved in China in the first 11 months of 2009, up 33 per cent year-on-year.2009年前11個月，中國批准發出逾1.75

億張新信用卡，按年增長33%。

US credit card defaults (defined as credit card debt more than 60 days behind on payments) rose steadily throughout 2009, finally reaching record levels in September. At that point,

defaults were more than double the average levels of the previous decade.2009年全年，美國信用卡拖欠款項（指

逾期還款超過60天的信用卡債務）繼續上

升，最終於9月份達至歷史新高。截至9月

份，拖欠款項較過去十年的平均水平翻了

一倍多。

In Britain, about one million families used credit cards to make mortgage or rent payments in 2009.在英國，約一百萬家庭於2009年使用信

用卡支付按揭款或租金。

Australian mortgage, credit card and personal loan debts stood at A$1.2 trillion in December 2009, up 71 percent

from five years ago and, for the first time, exceeding the country’s GDP. “It’s a terrible, terrible sign”, said University of New South Wales economics professor Steve Keen.澳洲的按揭,信用卡及個人貸款債務於

2009年12月達至1.2萬億澳元，較五年前增

長71%，超出該國的GDP。新南威爾士大學

經濟學教授Steve Keen稱「這是一個非常,

非常糟糕的訊號」。

“While 2008 brought us the worldwide credit crisis, 2009... turned into a credit card crisis, as cardholders around the globe careened from credit binge to credit bust.” (US commentator Eva Norlyk

FEBRUARY 2010 | ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT

Opinion 5

We are still waiting for a response from Beijing to the threat by Google to walk out of China, a threat which comes as a consequence of the hacking of its Gmail infrastructure.

Smith, creditcardguide.com)「2008年帶來全球信貸危機，2009

年…轉變為信用卡危機，世界各地的

信用卡持有人從信貸狂歡期進入信貸

崩潰期。」（美國評論員Eva Norlyk

Smith，creditcardguide.com）

“When you get a credit card, technically you’re borrowing money from a bank. In reality, though, you’re borrowing money from yourself.” (Web site creditcardoffers.com)「從技術上說，你得到一張信用卡時，

表示你正向銀行借錢。但實際上，你正向

自己借錢。」（網站creditcardoffers.

com）

“He looks the whole world in the face for he owes not any man.” (Henry Wadsworth Longfellow)「他坦坦蕩蕩面對全世界，因為

他無拖無欠。」（Henry Wadsworth

Longfellow）

“The only man who sticks closer to you in adversity than a friend is a creditor.” (Anonymous)「遭遇不幸時，仍緊緊跟隨你的不是朋

友，而是債權人。」（無名氏）

“Who goeth a-borrowing, goeth a-sorrowing.” (Thomas Tusser)「借債是不幸的開始。」（Thomas

Tusser）

“Before borrowing money from a friend, decide which you need most.” (American proverb)「向朋友借錢之前，先確定你最需要錢

還是朋友。」（美國諺語）

Google versus Goliath

Google挑戰中國

We are still waiting for a response from Beijing to the threat by Google to walk out of China, a threat which comes as a consequence of the hacking of its Gmail infrastructure.由於Gmail基礎架構受到駭客攻

擊，Google揚言要撤出中國，我們仍在等

待北京方面的回應。

Google did not name the Chinese government — well, not exactly. It said the infiltration of its infrastructure was “highly sophisticated”, that the hacked accounts were those of human rights activists, and that the hacking came from within China.雖然Google並無確切指明中國政府，但

Google稱其基礎架構「高度完善」，受駭

客攻擊的賬戶均為人權活動分子，且駭客

攻擊均來自中國境內。

Beijing may not be in a hurry to respond, but one feels that it will have to acknowledge the situation at some point, and sooner rather than later. This is not a challenge it can ignore. Google is clearly playing hardball on this one, and since its furious accusation it has received support from all points political in the US. There is too much face involved here for China to remain silent.北京可能不會輕易作出回應，但有人認

為未來某時間其將不得不承認這一情況，

且宜早不宜遲。這次挑戰不容北京方面忽

視。顯而易見，Google這次態度強硬，且

由於其激烈的評論，Google已獲得美國政

治當局的支援。此事牽涉甚廣，中國政府

難以繼續保持緘默。

A response will be eagerly awaited by Google, by the White House, and by about a billion growingly affluent and cosmopolitan Chinese citizens.Google,白宮及約十億逐漸富裕並崇尚世

界主義的中國公民，均會熱切期盼中國政

府作出回應。

Wrong again

一錯再錯

Rarely have so many been so wrong for so long. Australia has just announced another fall in its unemployment rate — by 10 basis points to 5.5 per cent. The figure, for November, reflects the creation

FEBRUARY 2010ASIAN TIGERS INVESTOR REPORT |

Opinion6

A MOMENT IN HISTORY

Many banking regulations have been tightened and changed in the past year as a result of the global economic crisis, but one rule which has escaped scrutiny in Britain is the one which states that all banks are required to accept any legible cheque, irrespective of the document’s material content. The reason may be the legacy of humorous innovations the rule has spawned.由於全球經濟危機的爆發，過去一年許

多銀行法規紛紛收縮並更改，但在英國有

一條規則不在此列，這條規則規定所有銀

行均需接受任何清晰支票，而不論該票據

所附金額巨大與否。這條規則免於更改的

原因，可能是其過去引發的創新之舉令人

啼笑皆非。

Perhaps the most renowned antics on the theme came from the novelist and humorist AP Herbert, who wrote cheques at various times on napkins, a brandy bottle and an egg. Herbert himself then became a target in 1970 when he received a five-pound cheque from Punch magazine written on

“Family, religion, friends... these are the three demons you must slay if you wish to succeed in business.”

—Monty Burns (fictional owner of the nuclear power plant in The Simpsons)

「家庭,宗教信仰,朋友…想要事業成功，這是你必須殺掉的三個惡魔。」

—蒙哥馬利˙伯恩斯（《阿森一族》中虛構的核電廠東主）

They said... 名人名言

a cow. Herbert had to lead the cow into a bank to be cashed.就此而言，最廣為人知的趣事，或許

當屬小說家兼幽默作家AP Herbert的

故事。AP Herbert曾在不同時間開支票

購買餐巾紙,一隻白蘭地酒瓶及一個雞

蛋。1970年Herbert本人反受其「害」，

他收到《Punch》雜誌對一頭奶牛開出的

一張五英鎊支票。Herbert不得不牽著奶

牛到銀行兌換現金。

of 27,900 part-time jobs and 7,300 full-time jobs.錯誤如此之多，如此之久，甚屬罕見。

澳洲前不久宣佈其失業率再次下降，下降

10個基點至5.5%。11月份的數據顯示該國

新增27,900個兼職職位及7,300個全職職

位。

Month after month since the start of the financial crisis pundits have been pretty much agreed that Australia was looking at 8 per cent unemployment.

The Federal government warned that 8.5 per cent was possible. The economists and analysts said these were reasonable predictions — not good but better than most first-world economies.金融危機爆發後數月，學者們還一致認

為澳洲的失業率有望達至8%。聯邦政府甚

至警告說可能攀升到8.5%。經濟學家及分

析師稱這些是合理的預測 — 並不太好但

優於大多數第一世界經濟體。

The bad news is that nobody got this

right. Not even close. The good news is that the error was on the side of the angels. Australia’s unemployment peaked at 5.8 per cent in mid-2009. After the latest figures, even the government is admitting 8 per cent looks unlikely.壞消息是沒人正確判斷到此時此景，甚

至連接近的預測都沒有。好消息是物極必

反，「錯」極必「正」。澳洲的失業率於

2009年中達至5.8%的新高，此後，澳洲政

府亦承認不可能達至8%。 |AT|

What is in a name? in the case of Senator Benigno Simeon Aquino III, more popularly known as Noynoy, his surname does not only hint at his pedigree or bloodline, but also the story of both a family and a nation.

一個人的名字究竟有何深意？對班尼格

諾·西蒙·阿基諾三世（ Benigno Simeon

Aquino III）而言（常被稱為諾諾·阿基諾

（Noynoy Aquino），家族姓氏不僅是宗族血

脈的體現，還代表一個家族及國家的傳奇

故事。

“The only valuable asset I can bequeath to you now is the name you carry”, wrote Ninoy to Noynoy, then 13 on August

25, 1973, the night before he faced a military kangaroo court for alleged anti-subversion during martial law. “I have tried my best during my years of public service to keep that name untarnished and respected, unmarked by sorry compromises for expediency. I now pass it on to you, as good, I pray, as when my father, your grandfather passed it on to me.” 尼諾伊·阿基諾（Ninoy Aquino）在軍

政時期曾被控顛覆國家罪，面臨非法軍事

法庭審判的前夜，即1973年8月25日，他

在留給年僅13歲的諾諾·阿基諾的家書中

寫道："家族的名字是我能留給你的唯一財

富。從政期間，我竭盡全力保持家族名字

不受玷污且值得尊敬，從不為了權宜形勢

而有絲毫妥協。現時，我將家族的英名留

傳給你，希望你繼續發揚光大，正如你的祖

父將其留傳給我。"

“Your great-grandfather, General Servillano Aquino was twice condemned to death by both the Spaniards and the American colonizers. Fortunately, he survived both by a twist of fate. Your grandfather, my father was also imprisoned by the Americans because he loved his people more than the Americans who colonized us. He was finally vindicated. Our ancestors have shared the pains, the sorrows and the anguish of Mother Filipinas when she was in bondage.”


Economy 7

作者/By Marisse Reyes

"你的曾祖父薩維拉諾·阿基諾

（Servillano Aquino）將軍曾兩次被西

班牙及美國殖民者判處死刑。所幸在命運

的眷顧之下，他兩次都得以逃生。你的祖

父亦被美國人投入監牢，因為較之美國殖

民者，他更深愛菲律賓人民。最終，他成

功洗脫罪名。在祖國菲律賓飽受奴役的時

代，我們的先人與祖國母親共同分擔痛

苦、悲哀及磨難。"

“Forgive me for passing unto your young shoulders the great responsibilities for our family. I trust you will love your mother and your sisters and lavish them with the care and protection I would have given them.”"請原諒我將如此家族重任賦予你年幼的

肩膀。我堅信你定會深愛母親及姐妹，像

我一樣給她們無微不至的關懷及保護。"

When Ninoy was assassinated on August 21, 1983, a Prince Charming had awakened a nation, which had slept in lethargy for 11 years, with the kiss of his ultimate sacrifice. He said he regretted having only one life to give, because even if he had a hundred lives, he would have given them all to his country.1983年8月21日，尼諾伊·阿基諾遭到暗

殺，這位捨生取義的政治領袖用自己的鮮

血喚醒了沉睡11年的菲律賓民眾。他曾深

情表示，後悔自己只有一次生命，即使有

一百次生命，他亦會全部獻給祖國。

If the Aquinos were political kingpins of the second district of Tarlac, the Cojuangcos were of the first district. They belonged to the same political party, were good friends and got together socially. The marriage of Ninoy Aquino and Cory Cojuangco was a match made in heaven, as they say. “Just a year after we got married, we both agreed that since Ninoy would be in public life, I would be primarily a mother”, she said. “He discouraged me from having a career, and I did not fight him, since staying at home was commonly accepted once you had a family.” Cory, who was always supportive

of her husband and proud of his public accomplishments, had always remained in the background.如果說阿基諾家族是達拉（Tarlac）第

二區的政治中堅，許寰哥（Cojuangco）

家族則是第一區的政治領袖。兩個家族均

屬同一政黨，私交甚篤，常共同亮相公共

場合。尼諾伊·阿基諾與柯莉·許寰哥

（Cory Cojuangco）的婚姻被當地人視為

天作之合。柯莉表示："結婚一年後，我

們達成一致，尼諾伊全身心從政，由我料

理家務。他不鼓勵我外出工作，我欣然接

受，因為組建家庭後，妻子全身心料理家

務理所應當。"柯莉是丈夫事業堅定支持

者，為丈夫的政績深感自豪，始終在幕後默

默奉獻。

Fever for Freedom and Independence追求自由及獨立

But the world would soon take notice of Cory, frail of shoulder, but strong of spirit and of courage. Her father Jose Cojuangco, Sr. was born in Malolos, Bulacan on July 3, 1896, two

years before Philippine Independence. Five months before he was born, the Kataastaasang, Kagalang-galangang Katipunan ng mga Anak ng Bayan, or Katipunan, had established its first issue of the revolutionary Kalayaan. On August 23, 1896, nearly two months after her father’s birth, Andres Bonifacio and his men pledged at Pugadlawin that they would fight for freedom and complete separation from the Spanish crown. Four months later, on December 30, 1896, Jose Rizal, a Chinese mestizo, was executed by the Spaniards for creating in his novels a portrait of the Filipinos as a country free to think and act on its own. Could her father have possibly absorbed through osmosis, the fever for freedom and independence running through the veins of her forefathers?但柯莉很快引起關注，儘管她外表弱不

禁風，卻擁有堅強的內心及過人的勇氣。

其父瓊斯·許寰哥（Jose Cojuangco,


Economy8

When Ninoy was assassinated on August 21, 1983, a Prince Charming had awakened a nation, which had slept in lethargy for 11 years with the kiss of his ultimate sacrifice.

Sr. ）於1896年7月3日出生在比立勤

（Bulacan）的馬洛洛斯（Malolos）

，兩年後菲律賓實現獨立。他出生前5

個月，Kataastaasang，即 Kagalang-

galangang Katipunan ng mga Anak

ng Bayan（又被稱為卡迪普南革命組

織（Katipunan）創辦第一期革命刊物

《Kalayaan》。1896年8月23日，即柯莉的

父親出生近兩個月後，安達斯·波尼斯奧

（Andres Bonifacio）及其擁護者在普伽

拉文（Pugadlawin）宣誓，將為自由而

戰，實現徹底擺脫西班牙殖民統治。四個

月後，即1896年12月30日，一位華裔混血

的菲律賓作家被西班牙殖民者處決，因為

其小說將菲律賓描寫為一個能自由思考且

獨立自主的國家。或許，柯莉的父親受到

這種思潮的影響，追求自由及獨立的精神

在家族中血脈傳承。

His own grandfather, Ingkong Jose from Hongjian village in Fujian, People’s Republic of China, was going through his own personal struggle as a naturalized Filipino. His son Melecio, the Cojuangcos’ first politician, a teacher by profession, won by a majority vote under the Progresista Party campaigning on a platform “ultimate” or “eventual” independence from the Americans.柯莉的曾祖父英宏·瓊斯（Ingkong

Jose）來自中國福建的宏漸村，一直為

菲律賓的獨立自主抗爭。其子馬里西

（Melecio）原本以教師為業，在進步黨

（Progresista Party）的選舉中贏得多數選

票，成為許寰哥家族首個政治家，致力於

擺脫美國殖民者，實現菲律賓徹底獨立。

Born on February 8, 1960, Noynoy is a fourth generation member of the Cojuangcos, who have been running for public office a century back. He is an economist by training and a public official by profession. He served three terms as Congressman of the Second District of Tarlac before placing sixth in the May 2007 senatorial elections that earned him a six-year mandate as Senator. Congressman Peping

Cojuangco’s father, Jose Cojuangco, Sr. was a congressional representative. Peping’s mother Demetria Sumulong who hailed from Antipolo is the second daughter of Senator Juan Sumulong, the sister of Senator Lorenzo Sumulong and Congressman Francisco Sumulong.諾諾·阿基諾出生於1960年2月8日，是

許寰哥家族第四代成員，該家族自上世紀

以來一直參與菲律賓政治。他透過學習成

為經濟學家，以政治為業。他曾擔任三

屆達拉第二區國會議員，後於2007年5月

第六次參與參議員選舉，得到任期六年的

參議員任命。國會議員皮蓬·許寰哥（

Peping Cojuangco）的父親瓊斯·許寰哥

曾擔任國會代表。皮蓬的母親迪米特婭·

蘇穆隆（Demetria Sumulong）來自安蒂波

洛（Antipolo），是參議員胡安·蘇穆隆

（ Juan Sumulong）的次女，是參議員洛

倫佐·蘇穆隆（Lorenzo Sumulong）及國

會議員的弗蘭西斯科·蘇穆隆（Francisco

Sumulong）的妹妹。

As for Cory, how can we say in a paragraph, a book, or several books what Cory Aquino has contributed in the name of freedom and democracy? If Ninoy had died for his country, Cory devoted her life in serving the nation. To quote Cory1, “we Filipinos were privileged to experience a peaceful revolution. We got rid of the dictator, spared of the terrible trauma and bitterness of civil war and bloodshed that other less fortunate countries have gone through. Surely, such a precious gift calls for reciprocation. What is it that the privilege of EDSA expects of us?”對柯莉·阿基諾而言，她對菲律賓自由

及民主的貢獻即使用鴻篇巨著亦難以盡

言。如果說尼諾伊為祖國獻出生命，柯

莉則是盡畢生精力服務祖國。柯莉曾表

示：1："菲律賓人實現和平革命著實得到上

天的眷顧。我們推翻獨裁者，避免其他國

1 Corazon Aquino. Buklod Atenista Congress in Ateneo de Manila University Congress. Ate-neo de Manila University. January 19, 1996.


Economy 9

Born on February 8, 1960, Noynoy is a fourth generation member of the Cojuangcos, who have been running for public office a century back.

家曾經歷的社會動盪及流血戰爭。我們一

定要報答上天如此珍貴的饋贈。在享受人

民力量革命的成果時，我們該付出哪些努

力？"

Cory said she was committed “to pursue the mission I assumed after I left the presidency in 1992… Nothing more than that our work is meaningful, that it nourishes not only the body but also the soul. That we render service that is truly fulfilling, which were necessary, goes beyond the call of official duty, the boundaries of our homes and workplace, the limits of ability to give. That we grow not just materially but spiritually, that we value not only ourselves and our families but the community and the country as well.柯莉曾表示，1992年卸任總統後，將繼續

致力於完成肩頭的使命…"沒有什麼比我們

的工作更具意義，我們不僅能改善物質生

活，還能使人民的靈魂得到昇華。我們要一

心一意的為公眾服務，應超越職責要求、家

庭與工作的界限以及我們的能力局限。我們

不僅要在物質方面實現增長，還要在精神方

面實現昇華，我們不僅珍視自身及家庭，還

應珍視整個社區及國家。"

The Spirit of EDSA means nothing more than being men and women for others. This is the spirit that I wish all Filipinos could imbibe. It is the spirit, which promotes personal excellence and service to others. It is what will sustain our hard-earned freedoms, and make the Filipino people truly deserve the generous blessing of peaceful change that was showered on us in EDSA.”"人民力量革命的精神就是要求我們為

他人服務。我希望所有菲律賓人都能繼承

這種精神。在該精神指引下，我們會在工

作中精益求精，努力為他人服務。只有這

樣，我們才能捍衛來之不易的自由，使所

有菲律賓人真正享有人民力量革命帶來的

和平變革成果。"

Beyond the Call of Official Duty逾越工作職責要求

When Cory passed on to the next life on August 1, 2009, millions displayed

their grateful and emotional sentiments for a leader who gave her selfless love for country and people. Was it merely her popularity, which catapulted the public clamor for Noynoy to run either as vice-president, then as president? If Cory had been there, she would have given her discernment. Pinky Aquino-Abellada suggested Noynoy consult a Carmelite nun in Zamboanga. If Ninoy had Fr. Horacio de la Costa, and Cory Fr. Catalino Arevalo, Noynoy should have his spiritual adviser as well. Ballsy Aquino Cruz, the oldest daughter, was overheard to have asked Noynoy over the phone, “Are you

willing to give up six years of your life?”2009年8月1日，柯莉與世長辭，數百萬

菲律賓民眾深切悼念這位無私深愛祖國及

人民的偉大領袖。或許在她的個人魅力影

響下，諾諾·阿基諾得到民眾擁護，先擔

任副總統，後又擔任總統。如果柯莉還在

世，她定會給出自己的真知灼見。據平

基·阿基諾－阿布萊達（Pinky Aquino-

Abellada）透露，諾諾·阿基諾曾向三寶顏

（Zamboanga）的卡莫利特（Carmelite）修

女問道。如果說尼諾伊得到胡拉西奧·考斯

塔（Fr. Horacio de la Costa）及柯莉·

卡塔里奧·阿里瓦羅（Cory Fr. Catalino

Arevalo）的指引，諾諾·阿基諾亦應有

自己的心靈顧問。有人曾聽到長女波斯·阿

基諾·克魯茲（Ballsy Aquino Cruz）在電

話中問諾諾·阿基諾："你是否願意放棄六

年的生命？"

It was a modest question, coming from someone who had served as her

1 Corazon Aquino. Buklod Atenista Congress in Ateneo de Manila University Congress. Ateneo de Manila University. January 19, 1996.

1 柯拉蓉·阿基諾（Corazon Aquino）。雅典耀大學（Ateneo de Manila University）大會期間的博克洛德·阿特尼斯塔（Buklod Atenista）會議。雅典耀大學。1996年1月19日。


Economy10

When Cory passed on to the next life on August 1, 2009, millions displayed their grateful and emotional sentiments for a leader who gave her selfless love for country and people.

mother’s private secretary during her presidency. In her humility she had forgotten to acknowledge that their lives had already been intertwined with that of our nation... suffering through their father’s imprisonment and assassination, their mother’s reluctant presidency and selfless dedication in service to the nation.這是個謙遜的問題，波斯·阿基諾·克

魯茲曾在其母任總統時擔任私人秘書。這

位謙遜的女兒或許忘記，無論父輩的入獄

及被暗殺，母親勉為其難出任總統，還是

無私致力於服務國家，都使得一家人的生

命與國家融為一體，密不可分。

On September 9, 2009, the 40th day after the death of his mother Corazon Aquino, Noynoy Aquino announced his presidential bid. A text message that day suggested that if you multiplied the 9-9-9 by 3, you would get 27. His father Ninoy Aquino was born on November 27. Noynoy would run in 2010, 27 years after Ninoy’s assassination. Also, 9-9-9 was also the 252nd day of the year. If you add the three digits, it also yielded a 9. Is it his destiny?2009年9月9日，在母親柯拉蓉·阿基諾

（Corazon Aquino）辭世後第40天，諾

諾·阿基諾宣佈參與總統競選。當天有人

撰文指出，如果3個9相乘，結果為27。諾

諾·阿基諾的父親尼諾伊·阿基諾出生於

11月27日。諾諾·阿基諾將於2010年掌

權，恰好是尼諾伊·阿基諾遭遇暗殺27年

後。另外，2009年9月9日恰好是當年的第

252天。如果將三個數字相加，結果亦是9

。這是否是他的宿命？

In 1996, ten years after the historic EDSA Revolution, Cory Aquino may have been prophetic in her warning that: 1996年，具有歷史意義的人民力量革命

十年後，柯莉·阿基諾警示公眾時富有預

見性地指出：

“Challenges to our freedoms continue to lurk in dark corners, some of them disguised as anti-crime legislation or as proposed constitutional reforms to streamline government. They also come in the shape of recycled but unrepentant politicians, and discredited ideologues that would take advantage of the democratic space, which the EDSA Revolution had created in our society. But mostly, these challenges take the form of a general apathy among our people, a tendency to leave everything in the hands of the leaders, and just heap the blame on them if something goes wrong.”"…在陰暗的角落，還存在對自由的威

脅，有些偽裝成反犯罪立法，有些則披上

優化政府的憲法改革外衣。還有些人是冥

頑不化的政客及虛偽的空想家，只不過想

利用人民力量革命的民主成果謀取私利。

但民主的威脅主要在於民眾的冷漠，有很

多人更願意讓領導人負責所有的改革工

作，如果出現問題，便能將所有責任都推

卸到領導人身上。"

“I believe that such apathy, which has allowed the return of discarded ideas and personalities in the highest levels of governance, goes against the spirit of

EDSA. Our national situation demands nothing less than a return to, the revival of the Spirit that brought us all to the defense of the Republic, our people and the democratic way of life in the dark days of martial law, and into the dawning of a new day at EDSA. I do not speak only of providing our warm bodies when needed to make a national statement, but a generosity of spirit, a sharing of our time, efforts, resources, and our very lives if needed, to see to it that others might improve their lives. I speak of living the Spirit of EDSA in all of our endeavors, whatever is our state and calling in life.”"這種冷漠會導致政府高層無視民眾意

見，我堅信冷漠的態度有違人民力量革命

的精神。鑒於國家的現狀，我們必須立即

重振革命精神，號召所有人保衛共和國，

使我們的人民及民主生活方式免受軍政府

的威脅，迎來人民力量革命全新未來的曙

光。我不僅注重為民眾帶來安逸的物質生

活，還注重提升民眾的精神，分享我們的

時間、付出、資源及生活，幫助他人改善

生活。我號召所有人秉承人民力量革命的

精神，無論國家面臨何種形勢，無論我們

處於何種生活狀態。"

Beyond his father’s request to take care of his mother and sisters, imbued with the spirit of his ancestors, and armed with the courage of his parents, Noynoy’s SOCIAL CONTRACT WITH THE FILIPINO PEOPLE is a call to action. His platform is a commitment to change


Economy 11

For the economy, he sees farms and rural enterprise as vital to achieving food security. His is a leadership that will execute all the laws of the land with impartiality and decisiveness.

that Filipinos can depend on. With trust in their leaders, everyone can work and build a greater future together.諾諾·阿基諾不僅要遵從父親要求他照

顧母親及姐妹的囑託，秉承先輩的精神，

繼承父母的勇氣，他還與菲律賓人民簽下

社會責任契約，必須積極行動。建設強大

菲律賓的使命就是他的施政平台。憑藉民

眾對領導人的信賴，領導人定能與民眾共

同打造更美好的未來。

He is committed to become the nation’s first and most determined fighter of corruption. Education is his central strategy, prioritizing jobs, protection of public health and equal justice to rich and poor. 他致力於成為菲律賓第一位亦是決心最

堅定的反腐敗鬥士。教育是他的首要施政

領域，其後還有就業、保護公共衛生以及

貧富司法平等。

For the economy, he sees farms and rural enterprise as vital to achieving food security. His is a leadership that will execute all the laws of the land with impartiality and decisiveness. He will create conditions conducive to the growth and competitiveness of private businesses, big, medium and small. He wants to create more jobs at home, but will prioritize the welfare and protection of overseas workers.在經濟方面，他將農場及鄉村企業視為

實現糧食安全的重要因素。他將公正果敢

地執行所有土地法律。他將營造理想環

境，幫助私營企業、大型、中型及小型企

業實現增長並提高競爭力。他希望創造更

多在家中工作的機會，但會將福利及海外

勞工保障作為首要工作。

He wants professional, motivated and energized bureaucracies with adequate means to perform their public service missions in government service. Selection should be based on integrity, competence and performance in serving the public good.他希望實現專業、主動積極且活力十足

的政府機構，使其高效完成政府服務的使

命。選拔官員時，必須參照正直、個人能

力及公共服務成績標準。

His Mindanao policy will seek a broadly supported just peace and will redress decades of neglect of the Moro and other peoples of Mindanao.他的棉蘭老島（Mindanao）政策將尋求廣

泛支援，將改變摩洛（Moro）及其他棉蘭老

島居民數十年來不受政府重視的現狀。

His is a government that will encourage

the sustainable use of natural resources to benefit present and future generations.他的政府將鼓勵可持續利用自然資源，

使當代及後人受益。

In his VISION FOR THE PHILIPPINES, Noynoy sees: 諾諾·阿基諾為菲律賓勾勒的遠景藍圖

包括

●A re-awakening sense of right and wrong, through the living examples of our highest leaders.

●透過最高領導人的以身作則重塑是非

觀；

●An organized and widely-shared rapid expansion of our economy through a government dedicated to honing and mobilizing our people’s skills and energies as well as the responsible harnessing of our natural resources.

●透過政府努力提升人口素質並合理開發

自然資源，實現經濟有序快速發展，是

多數人口分享發展成果；

●A collective belief that doing the right thing does not only make sense morally, but translates into economic value as well.

●樹立集體價值觀，即正確行事不僅符合

道德要求，還能創造經濟價值；

●Public institutions rebuilt on the strong solidarity of our society and its communities.

●以社會及社區的團結為基礎，重建公共

服務機構

The MISSION which he has chosen to accept is that:他將努力實現的使命是

We will start to make these changes first in ourselves by doing the right things, by giving value to excellence and integrity and rejecting mediocrity and dishonesty, and by giving priority to others over ourselves.要想改變國家，我們必須首先改變自

己，我們應正確行事，使精益求精及正直

的精神能創造價值，拒絕平庸及欺詐，堅

持先人後己。

When Noynoy announced his decision to run, Father Manny Domingo, former parish priest of Don Bosco, Makati, expressed what many Filipinos now feel: “I HAVE BEEN GIVEN HOPE.”諾諾·阿基諾宣佈參選總統時，馬卡

提（Makati）的多波斯哥（Don Bosco）

地區原教區牧師馬尼·多明戈（Manny

Domingo）神父一語道出菲律賓人民現時的

心情："我終於看到了希望。"|AT|


Economy12

ThaT indefaTigable business locomotive, China, seems set this year to resume its front-running ways in the worldwide effort to gain a stronger, longer-term foothold on economic recovery. Home-grown analysts have already voiced their expectations of the People’s Republic asserting itself as an economic superpower, the “Worldwide Tiger”, in 2010. Their optimism is aptly anchored on the country’s superlative growth performance, better than that of any nation on earth – its economy growing by 8.5 percent last year and is likely to expand another 9.5 percent this year, with its share of global trade forecast to extend even much beyond last year’s 9

percent. The People’s Daily contends that, given China’s recovery staying strong, the country “is set to surpass Japan as the world’s second-biggest economy”, as it cites its leading role in international discussions to wean the world away from using US dollars for reserves and instead adopt a basket of currencies – a stance, however, that only pays diplomatic lip service towards reforms in the international financial system, wanting only gradual change “but not so fast that we damage our own assets”.

看來不知疲憊的經濟火車頭中國，今年又

要領跑全世界，這將促使經濟復甦更加穩

固和持久。國內已有分析人士放言，2010

年中國將成為經濟超級大國，變成「世界

之虎」。他們的樂觀並非空穴來風，因為

中國的經濟增長令人炫目，無能出其右者

｜去年經濟增長8.5%，今年有望續增9.5%

，其在全球貿易中所佔的份額，預計也會

遠超去年的9%。《人民日報》表示，因為

中國的復甦勢頭保持強勁，其「有望超越

日本晉身世界第二大經濟體」。中國在國

際磋商中一馬當先，力圖使世界擺脫以美

元為儲備貨幣的舊格局，轉而採用一籃子

貨幣｜其實這不過是外交託辭，其真正意

在改革國際金融體系，但中國希望改革以

循序漸進的方式進行，「以免操之過急傷

及自身」。

It will be a year for challenges, to say the least. For it’s the Year of the Tiger, what Chinese astrology traditionally

作者/by Jack Dixon


Economy 13

associates with extremely volatile conditions or, as it says, “massive changes and social upheavals”. Much like the way Western culture regards the lion as the legendary Jungle Lord, Chinese culture admires the tiger’s vivid stripes which symbolise the balanced forces of yin and yang – a true force of nature and an action-packed zodiac figure. In general, the tiger – as a person – is described as fearless, stout-hearted and dependable yet unpredictable most of the times. But it can be tender and loving – quietly content to be a homebody, at times. The impulsive tiger can leap out suddenly, though, and take on a different tack, quickly packing up for some remote, exotic realm. Because of this nature, an observer may erroneously accuse the tiger of being irresponsible. But, far from it, its impulse derives from an innate ability to think on its feet or a primal desire for adventure and first-hand experience in life.新的一年充滿挑戰。今年是中

國農曆的虎年，交織頗多變數，

亦可說是「重大變革和社會動

盪。」西方文化把雄獅奉為森林

之王，而在中國文化中，老虎身

上的斑斕條紋象徵著陰與陽的調

和，是真正的自然力量。虎是最

勇猛的一個生肖，在人們的觀念

中，肖虎之人性格剛毅,膽識過

人,值得信賴，有時也讓人琢磨

不透。他心地善良，情感豐富，

對身邊人體貼入微。猛虎行蹤飄

忽不定，只要一時興起，不論荒

山野嶺，人跡罕至之處，皆是它的領地。

因為這個天性，有人說老虎三心二意，用

心不專。此言差矣，其實正是百折不撓,

喜好冒險和親身嘗試的精神，才成就了虎

之勇猛。

The Tiger Businessman商界之虎

Firms yearning for stability after the difficult past few years may have to see out the Year of the Tiger altogether as 2010 may yet prove tumultuous on both the world scene as well as the business domain. For this year also marks the year of the Metal Tiger, which last occurred 60 years ago in 1950. It is this metal element that endows the tiger with its acuteness in action and speed of thought. A Metal Tiger is thought to revel being a crowd

standout, with a motivating assertiveness and competitive stance that enable it to set its objectives and prosecute them at all costs. It is a natural leader who drives its business with impeccable precision and is thus likely to prosper in 2010. It is one that has kept the lessons of the past hard years and remains focused on keeping an edge over competitors. Thus, as global economic recovery sets in, it is the Metal Tiger of industry that will relentlessly

propel business forward while keeping handy the lessons of the past few years.那些好不容易熬過幾年來的風風雨雨，

從心裏渴望安定的公司，恐怕在虎年裏要

繼續熬下去，因為2010年不論是國際形勢

還是營商環境都不會平靜。今年是六十年

一遇的「金虎年」，上一次要追溯到1950

年。「金虎」的思維靈敏，身手矯捷，它

是虎中之傑，堅毅自信，驍勇善戰，有種

不達目的誓不罷休的氣魄。它是百獸之

王，每每出擊百發百中；它善於汲取經

驗，永遠比對手更富競爭力。在全球經濟

復甦之際，總結幾年來的成敗得失，商界

之中的「金虎」必能勇往直前，把事業推

向前進。

But there is a downside to the tiger. Its characteristic caring for loved ones – hopelessly protective to unhesitatingly pounce at the slightest threat to family or

children, wife or lover – surrounds it with an aura of charismatic authority, always commanding respect. But it is this regal attitude which accounts for its firm belief that it knows what’s best for everyone and probably the reason for its occasional descent into stormy temperaments, even depressive moods, in times of failure. It is during moments like these when, standing up to a disgruntled tiger, one earns its admiration in the quickest way

possible, but only after a furious Battle Royale. For the tiger is devoid of a long, sustained fury and, if one finds the means to ride out the storm, peace and harmony will certainly reign again.威武外表下，虎也有溫情一

面，對家庭,子女和愛人呵護有

加，危急關頭奮不顧身，保護他

們不受絲毫威脅。它渾身散發王

者之風，叫人肅然起敬，因它深

知慈悲為懷，以德服人。明白這

一點，就不難理解為何它會在挫

敗之時狂躁暴怒，甚至一蹶不

振。能征服一頭猛虎固然了不

起，但那絕少不了一番虎口拔牙

的殊死搏鬥。其實老虎不會永遠狂怒，假

如你懂得以柔克剛，就能讓它恢復溫順，

俯首帖耳。

The Tiger Predictions虎年運勢

In an extremely volatile business environment, the tiger will thrive on chance and unpredictability because it is best-equipped to confront and deal with, no matter how dangerously, the many upheavals in the year ahead. Similarly, compatible figures such as the dragon and the horse, in particular, will also be equally inspired to bolder action and eventual success by the year’s uncertain circumstances. Other zodiac characters will suffer in varying degrees, depending on their resilience to change, and those


Economy14

For this year also marks the year of the Metal Tiger, which last occurred 60 years ago in 1950. It is this metal element that endows the tiger its acuteness in action and speed of thought.

who can steadily navigate the typically stormy events foreseen may at worst be shaken but remain unhampered. 在風雲變幻的商海中，肖虎之人最善把

握機遇和變數，面對今年的波折坎坷，無

論再大艱險都能從容以對。無獨有偶，今

年的前途莫測，同樣會激發肖龍,肖馬之

人的昂揚鬥志，去奪取最後的成功。至

於其他屬相，今年是流年不利，是對人的

應變能力的考驗，若能預判形勢，處變

不驚，則雖挫折難免，但終究不會傷筋

動骨。

As the Worldwide Tiger, China is poised for even greater economic triumphs this year after a momentous 2009. With its People’s Republic turning 60 last year, it has set the stage to become the economic force to be reckoned with on Beijing’s successes in prevailing over the world’s worst recession since the last World War, eluding economic disaster with a mammoth $585-billion stimulus package. It has surpassed any other economy in fighting off the global financial meltdown and is now in an excellent position to become the world’s second largest. This is reason enough for any Business Tiger who is seeking success in 2010 to keep handy the lessons from China’s recent past and consider leaping onto business opportunities and growth prospects with the Worldwide Tiger.送走難忘的2009年，作為世界之虎的中

國，今年可望迎來更輝煌的經濟成就。去

年是中國的六十華誕，偏巧趕上二戰以來

最嚴重的世界經濟衰退，危難之際，中央

政府出台5,850億美元的經濟刺激計劃，力

挽狂瀾，一舉讓中國走到世界經濟舞台的

中心。面對全球金融風暴，中國的表現力

壓群芳，現在世界第二大經濟體的寶座唾

手可得。對任何想在2010年做出一番成績

的商界之虎來說，過去一年中國的經驗值

得借鑒，而這個國家的燦爛前景和誘人商

機，更是不容錯過。

The Tiger’s Tempest虎之患

During the Year of the Tiger on the lunar calendar, three broad challenges for China appear on its economic horizon – protectionism, inflation and social inequality. 虎年的中國經濟有三大挑戰：貿易保護

主義,通貨膨脹,社會不公。

Rising Protectionism貿易保護主義

Still fresh in the mind is the problem of rising protectionism, firstly. Remember that last year was punctuated by serious trade spats mostly with the United States, which slapped anti-dumping duties on a number of

Chinese exports including tyres, steel pipes, grating and tubular goods. China’s retaliation was swift, doing the same on American steel and threatening probes into US meat exports. The US actions were ignited by strong business lobbyists who view the low exchange rate for China’s currency as posing an unfair export subsidy which entraps American consumers into preferring Chinese products over locally produced ones, thereby tending to overspend at the expense of domestically made equivalents. Washington politicians could echo some economists’ analysis that the Chinese intention to keep its currency at a substantially lower value against the dollar already provides fair justification to the imposition of tariffs for the sake of


Economy 15

As the Worldwide Tiger, China is poised for even greater economic triumphs this year after a momentous 2009. With its People’s Republic turning 60 last year, it has set the stage to become the economic force to be reckoned with

balancing trade, especially in the face of the American unemployment rate’s up-trending to even higher than 10 percent. There is also that chance that Washington could label the ever-expanding Chinese manufacturing activities as contributory to global warming. But whether that is well-founded or baseless, protectionism can only lead to trade disruptions that would adversely affect China’s export-driven economy. 首先是貿易保護主義抬頭的問題令人記

憶猶新。回想去年，中美之間有過多次嚴

重貿易摩擦，美國對中國出口商品包括輪

胎,鋼管,鋼格板,管材等大肆徵收反傾銷

關稅。中國旋即反制，以彼之道還施於美

國鋼材，並威脅要對美國出口的肉製品實

施調查。美國的舉動背後離不開商界說客

的煽風點火，在他們看來，人民幣的低匯

率如同不公平的出口補貼，誘惑美國消費

者購買中國商品，以致美國貨失寵，其過

度消費的表像下，是以犧牲國貨為代價。

華盛頓的政客們附和一些經濟學家的分析

說，既然中國決意維持人民幣兌美元的低

匯率，那麼對其徵收關稅以保持貿易平衡

便在情理之中，尤其是在美國失業率居高

不下突破10%大關的時候。或許華盛頓還會

給中國熱火朝天的製造業貼上導致全球變

暖的罪魁禍首的標籤。不論有理有據，還

是無中生有，貿易保護主義只會引發貿易

爭端，衝擊以出口為驅動力的中國經濟。

Inflation通貨膨脹

Inflation is a second problem, one type of which has already arrived as an offshoot of the government’s $1.5-trillion bank-lending measures last year. Along with speculative overseas capital inflows, it resulted in a price explosion in financial assets such as stocks and property, with Beijing registering record land prices and Hong Kong record apartment prices. And with the successful opening of Shenzhen’s new bourse, the

initial group of stocks doubled on the first trading day, and the second batch tripled a month later. Then there’s this confusing situation wherein retail prices are remaining almost stagnant while the prices of assets and of basic commodities like oil and iron ore are soaring. There’s just too much money in circulation. An interest rates rise could drain out this extra cash from the markets, but it could also slow down growth considerably. Chinese monetary authorities have resorted to lending restrictions to ease up inflationary pressure. But this may not be good enough because strong links prevail between banks and local governments, meaning new loans are not necessarily channeled to the most productive. It is wise to reduce lending targets this year but extra steps have to be taken to ensure that a major piece of the pie goes towards finishing up infrastructure projects and

the rest for new business investment. Political and economic risks are always borne by monetary instability.其次是通貨膨脹問題。去年政府授意銀

行放貸達1.5萬億美元，已經埋下通脹的伏

筆。再加上海外投機資本推波助瀾，一時

間金融資產如股票,房地產等急劇膨脹，結

果是大陸頻現地王，香港賣出天價公寓。

深圳創業板成功開盤，首批股票上市第一

天全線翻番，第二批股票上市一個月最高

上漲達三倍。令人費解的是，一方面零售

物價幾乎裹足不前，另一方面資產和大宗

商品如石油,鋼鐵等卻在飆升。流動性氾濫

成災，加息固然可從市場抽走多餘現金，

但也嚴重阻礙經濟增長。中國貨幣當局已

開始收緊信貸以緩解通脹壓力，惟此舉未

必奏效，因為現在銀行與地方政府之間關

係緊密，意味著新貸款未必都能用到實

處。明智的做法是削減今年的放貸目標，

同時採取進一步措施，保證大部份貸款都

投放到基建項目，餘下則用於新的企業投

資。貨幣體系不容閃失，否則將引發政治

和經濟風險。

Social Inequality社會不公

The third challenge is social inequality, said to be the least discernible but the most perilous. Simply stated, the gap between the rich and the poor must be widening, what with asset prices rising fast, wage levels increasing marginally, an unemployment rate of 4 percent discounting the 150 million migrant workers, and less than 70 percent of graduates getting employed. The Gini coefficient, a measure of economic inequality, suggests an alarming trend: China is becoming more unequal at a frightening rate. In 2007, the Asian Development Bank pegged China’s Gini at 0.47, approaching Argentina’s and Mexico’s, as compared with 24 years earlier in 1983 when China’s 0.28 was in the category of Sweden, Japan and


Economy16

China’s retaliation was swift, doing the same on American steel and threatening probes into US meat exports.

Along with speculative overseas capital inflows, it resulted in a price explosion in financial assets such as stocks and property, with Beijing registering record land prices and Hong Kong record apartment prices.

Germany. Observers say such a pace of acceleration “is virtually unheard of ”. Couple this with the truism that the biggest worry for policy-makers is that an idle and unequal populace will create unrest and an explosive accident waits to happen. In fact, a recent survey by the Zhejiang Academy of Social Sciences

reported that a staggering 96 percent of respondents “resent the rich”. It is no coincidence that Xinjiang province, where riots occurred last year, has one of China’s biggest wealth imbalances.第三個挑戰是社會不公，它最容易被忽

視，卻是極其危險。如今，貧富差距越來

越大，資產價格飛漲，工資卻像蝸牛，表

面上失業率僅4%，實則並未算入1.5億農

民工，大學生畢業後就業率不到七成。反

映貧富差距的基尼係數令人不安：中國的

基尼係數高的恐怖，正在變成越來越不公

平的國家。2007年，亞洲開發銀行公佈中

國的基尼係數為0.47，接近阿根廷和墨西

哥，而二十四年前的1983年，中國的基尼

係數還只有0.28，與瑞典,日本和德國為

伍。觀察人士說如此之快的速度是「聞所

未聞」。心懷不滿又無所事事的民眾是政

府的心腹大患，遲早要鬧出亂子，這是自

古以來的道理。最近浙江省社會科學院調

查發現，有高達96%的受訪者「仇富」。

新疆是中國貧富差距最大的地區之一，這

與去年的新疆騷亂不無關係。

Historically, China always finds a way to overcome adversities and it could probably address these problems through such measures as tact or diplomacy, a controlled bank system and the prudent use of state force, one after another. But if the challenges come rampaging in an apocalyptic bunch, then the Worldwide Tiger will have to contend with the Year of the

Metal Tiger as fiercely as ever before.一直以來，中國都在想方設法克服這些

難題，比如運用謀略或外交手段，比如控

制銀行系統，再比如審慎動用國家機器。

但假如命中註定這些隱患一同興風作浪，

金虎之年的世界之虎無疑將面臨比從前更

兇險的挑戰。

… Breaking News: “China with its population of 1.3 billion has overtaken Germany, population 82 million, as the world’s top exporter… From January to November, Chinese exports were worth $1.07 trillion, while German data showed that exports from Europe’s biggest economy amounted to $1.05 trillion…”…重大消息：「擁有13億人口的中國已

超越擁有8,200萬人口的德國，成為世界

第一出口大國…1至11月，中國出口額達

1.07萬億美元，而德國公佈的數據則顯

示，這個歐洲最大經濟體的出口額為1.05

萬億美元…」

… Breaking News: “US authorities slapped tariffs on Chinese wire decking

after a preliminary finding that the products were dumped at below market value… tariffs of between 42.61 to 289 percent will be imposed and collected until a final determination is made in the case…”…重大消息：「美國當局決定對中國產

鋼絲層板加征關稅，此前的初步調查顯示

該產品存在低於市價傾銷的行為…課征關

稅介於42.61%至289%，直至作出最終裁決

為止…」

The Tiger’s tempest has made a landfall. Can China ride it out?山雨欲來，但願中國虎口脫險。|AT|


Economy 17

the gap between the rich and the poor must be widening, what with asset prices rising fast, wage levels increasing marginally, an unemployment rate of 4 percent discounting the 150 million migrant workers, and less than 70 percent of graduates getting employed.

SucceSSful Smart card footprintS智能卡應用的成功經驗

Hong Kong iS undoubtedly among the key adopters of smart card, auto-id and security technology in Asia Pacific. In the smart cards arena, key applications in this country include government ID, mass transit, SIM and banking. 香港是亞太地區智能卡,自動識別與安防技

術普及度最高的地區之一。在香港，智能

卡主要應用於政府身份識別,公共交通,SIM

卡和銀行業務。

Hong Kong has one of the highest mobile penetration rates in the region, with over 100% subscriber penetration rate in a competitive mobile communication market. 3G services were introduced in the country in 2004.

The profile of mobile subscribers in the country is considered to be fairly sophisticated when compared to the rest of the region. However, due to the size of the country, Hong Kong’s SIM market is still considered relatively small, although it is well established. 香港的流動電話普及率在本地區首屈一

指。在競爭激烈的流動通訊市場，幾乎人

手一部流動電話，早在2004年便引入3G服

務。相比亞太其他國家，香港的流動電話

用戶相當成熟，然而由於地域狹小，香港

的SIM卡市場雖然很早就已形成，但整體規

模依然不大。

One of the highest profile applications in Asia Pacific is Hong Kong’s ‘contactless’ smart card mass transit project, the Octopus Card, used for fare collection on various mode of public transport in the country. This project

was launched in 1997, one of the earliest in the world. As a result the card is widely used in the country today, with a circulation rate of approximately 16 million in 2008 and over 50,000 readers at mass transit points and merchant outlets. The card is also used for payment at selected merchant outlets, making it both a travel card and a contactless e-purse card. 在亞太地區，香港的無接觸式智能卡公

共交通項目「八達通卡」，堪稱應用典

範。此卡已推廣到香港的各類公共交通工

具，作為支付車資的手段。項目肇始於

1997年，為世界的先行者之一。今天，八

達通卡遍佈全港，2008年流通量約1,600萬

張，在大大小小的公交站點和店舖裝有五

萬多個讀卡器。此卡可在指定商店消費，

集旅遊卡和無接觸式電子錢包卡的功能於

一身。

FEBRUARY 2010

18 Economy


作者/by by Michelle Foong

Another significant implementation in Hong Kong is the government ID application, SMARTICS (Smart Identity Card System). This is a citizen card that began issuance in 2003 and was completed within a few years. The card is used for identification, government services and e-banking. SMARTICS is known to be well executed and implemented in the region, lending it several regional and international awards in the government ID field. Based on the same MULTOS platform used for the citizen card, the country also implemented and issued their e-passport documents, another government issued document using smart card technology, to their citizens beginning 2007. 香港的另一個創舉是政府身份識別的應

用，即SMARTICS（智能身份證系統）。這

是2003年開始發行的一種市民卡，在短短

幾年內完成推廣，主要用於身份識別,政府

服務和電子銀行。SMARTICS的推廣應用在

本地區有口皆碑，贏得了政府身份識別領

域的許多國際和區域大獎。依託這種市民

卡的MULTOS平台，從2007年起，香港開始

向市民簽發和推廣電子護照，這是又一種

採用智能卡技術的政府簽發證件。

Following the footsteps of other countries in the region like Taiwan and Malaysia, Hong Kong has also begun to migrate bank cards from magnetic stripe to chip based bank cards. This migration, better known as the EMV migration, began in 2006 and is intended to reduce fraud through utilizing more secure and tamper-proof bank cards. 緊隨台灣,馬來西亞等區內國家，香港開

啟了從磁條銀行卡向晶片銀行卡的轉變過

程，即所謂的「EMV升級」，從2006年開始

透過採用更安全,防篡改的銀行卡，以減少

欺詐風險。

The above mentioned projects illustrate Hong Kong’s wide adoption of both contact and contactless technology for over a decade. The country is expected to continue experiencing demand for smart cards in all key applications through new projects, upgrades and replacement cards in the various sectors.十餘年來無論接觸式還是無接觸式技

術，都在香港得到廣泛應用，由上述項目

可見一斑。今後所有關鍵應用上的智能卡

需求將持續不斷，各領域的新項目,升級換

代和補換卡工程亦將陸續有來。

Security is Country’s Priority安全第一

RFID無線射頻識別(RFID)

Hong Kong can be considered as one of the key promising followers for RFID Technology in Asia Pacific. The country has strong support from its government especially in supply chain management, similar to China. The approved UHF bands in Hong Kong are 865-868 MHz (2W erp) and 920-925 MHz (4W erp).香港是亞太地區RFID技術的主要踐行者

之一。跟內地一樣，這項技術得到港府的

鼎力支持，尤其是供應鏈管理上的應用。

在香港，當局批准的UHF頻段是865-868

MHz (2W erp)和920-925 MHz(4W erp)。

• Hong Kong RFID development is strongly supported by the government. It is one of the top research areas for the Hong Kong Research and Development (R&D) Centre

0.0

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Rev

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Hong Kong Contactless Smart Cards: Physical Access Control Market, 2008

香港的無接觸式智能卡：2008年門禁控制市場

收入（千美元）

收入

增長

率（

%）

年度

CAGR: 5.5%

複合年增長率: 5.5%


Economy 19

Following the footsteps of other countries in the region like Taiwan and Malaysia, Hong Kong has also begun migrating their bank cards from magnetic stripe to chip based bank cards.

for Logistics and Supply Chain Management Enabling Technologies. It receives funding support from the Innovation and Technology Commission of the Hong Kong Government.

• 香港政府大力扶持RFID技術的發展，它

是香港物流及供應鏈管理應用技術研發

中心（下稱「研發中心」）的重點研究

領域之一，由香港政府創新科技署提供

經費資助。

• SCM R&D Centre works together with three leading universities in Hong Kong: The University of Hong Kong, Chinese University and Hong

Kong University of Science and Technology.

• 研發中心與香港三大名

校，即香港大學,香港中

文大學和香港科技大學

聯手開展研發工作。

• The Government’s Innovation and

Technology Fund has provided financial

support for many RFID-related projects amounting to US$13.84 million (HK$108 million). The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government also provides financial support through the Innovation and Technology Fund.

• 香港特別行政區政府通過創新及科技

基金提供財政支援，目前基金已為許多

RFID相關項目提供資助達1,384萬美元

（1.08億港元）。

• These funds are given not only to encourage more involvement in RFID technology but also to improve RFID tagging and embedding technology, application of RFID technology in food safety, enhancement of privacy

protection and communication security, and development of a real-time manufacturing shop-floor information infrastructure.

• 這些資助旨在鼓勵業界更多參與RFID技

術的研發，並且完善RFID標籤及嵌入技

術，促進RFID在食品安全上的應用，加

強私隱保護和通訊安全，及開發工作場

所實時資訊基礎設施。

• The ‘Guangdong-Hong Kong Technology Co-operation Funding Scheme’ is a joint fund between the Hong Kong and Shenzhen governments, which includes funding for RFID projects.

• 香港與深圳兩地政府合辦的「粵港科技

合作資助計劃」，亦把RFID項目納入資

助之列。

Some of the key applications creating demand in the market are baggage handling, food security, fleet management, transportation, and supply chain amongst others.一些關鍵應用如行李裝卸,食品安全,車

隊管理,交通運輸,供應鏈等等，都有旺盛

的市場需求。

Some major events are also helping to increase visibility for Hong Kong’s growing market.從以下幾個重要事件，可看出香港市場

的廣闊前景。

• The Hong Kong RFID Centre, co-hosted by the Innovation and Technology Commission of the Hong Kong SAR Government, Hong Kong Science and Technology Parks Corporation (HKSTP) and GS1 Hong Kong (GS1), was established to promote the development of RFID in Hong Kong, encourage application among industries and enhance public awareness of this technology and its significance for the economic and social development of Hong Kong.

• 香港RFID中心，由香港特區政府創新科

技署,香港科技園公司及香港貨品編碼協

會共同創辦，旨在促進香港無線射頻識

別技術的發展，鼓勵各行業的應用，提

升該技術的公眾認知度及其對香港社會

經濟發展的影響力。

• The Hong Kong RFID Awards were established since 2007 to recognize RFID industry pioneers, encourage


Economy20

The Hong Kong Security Market is mature and has always been an early adopter of the latest technologies in security applications.

including physical access control, in Hong Kong. The increase in awareness following the 9/11 terrorist attack in 2001 and the SARS outbreak in 2003 has fueled demand for security, especially for the Hong Kong International Airport.

• 香港對財產保護設備（包括門禁控制）

有龐大需求。2001年的「911」恐怖襲擊

及2003年的SARS大爆發，令民眾防範意

識增強，安防需求激增，尤以香港國際

機場為甚。

• The travel industry is keenly looking at biometrics and has already installed facial biometrics scanners at select railway stations. Facial biometrics has been employed at stations where the train travels to and from China. Facial biometrics scanners scan the individual’s face during departure and match the same when the individual returns from his/her destination. The facial biometrics employed here is not for access control but is being used as a security measure to identify terrorists or other marked individuals.

• 旅遊業相當重視生物識別技術，並已

在特定的鐵路站點裝備面部掃描儀。往

返內地的沿線火車站，均已啟用面部識

別。掃描儀在乘客啟程時掃描其面部，

待其從目的地返回後再掃描一次，前後

印證比對。這種面部識別並非為了出入

控制，而是一種鑑別恐怖分子或其他需

甄別之人的安全措施。

• Certain mobile phones are also employing biometrics today for logical access control applications.

• 如今某些流動電話也採用生物識別技

術，用於邏輯存取控制。

It is quite evident that biometrics is being tested and employed in every sector of society and has found to be

RFID development and to nurture the development of new RFID products in Hong Kong.

• 香港RFID大獎，創辦於2007年，旨在表

彰RFID業界先驅，促進RFID發展，及培

育香港本地的RFID產品開發。

Security安防產品

The Hong Kong Security Market is mature and has always been an early adopter of the latest technologies in security applications. The total Electronic Access Control Systems (EACS) and surveillance market has been showing positive growth year on year, especially contactless smart cards and biometrics. End users in Hong Kong are concerned about new technology trends in EACS and hence prefer integration with other systems such as time attendance.香港有成熟的安防產品市場，是應用安

防技術的先行者。電子門禁系統（EACS）

和監視產品市場逐年進步，尤以非接觸

式智能卡和生物識別技術的發展勢頭最顯

著。香港的終端用戶關注EACS技術的最新

趨勢，喜歡把它跟其他系統（如考勤）整

合在一起使用。

• Access control finds major application in prominent Government departments like the Customs & Excise Department, the Police Force, the Airport Authority, the Fire Services Department, and the main transportation controllers Kowloon Canton Railway and Mass Transit Railway.

• 門禁控制主要應用於政府的要害部門，

如海關,警務處,機場管理局,消防署等，

以及九鐵,地鐵兩大捷運系統。

• There is high demand for various types of property protection equipment,

useful, especially for largely populated cities like Hong Kong. Hong Kong is following new technologies in using access control systems. A majority of users prefer readers that support multi-application functions, offer high security, and are reasonably priced. Integration of technology is increasingly becoming popular in Hong Kong because of their ease of use and installation.顯而易見，生物識別技術正在各行各業

接受著考驗和運用，結果是不負眾望，尤

其適合香港這樣人口稠密的城市，而香港

也一直走在門禁系統技術的最前沿。那些

支援多重應用功能,安全性強且價格合理

的讀卡器，最受用戶青睞。技術的整合在

香港日益盛行，因為它易於使用，又方便

安裝。

The market for IP surveillance is mature in Hong Kong in terms of technology penetration and infrastructure although traditional analog equipment suppliers are still reluctant to commit the R&D investment to push the video server line. Certain suppliers that have ventured into the IP video surveillance market have chosen to focus on IP/network cameras instead.香港的IP監視市場，無論是技術普及度

還是基建水平，都已達到成熟。不過，傳


Economy 21

The travel industry is keenly looking at biometrics and has already installed facial biometrics scanners at select railway stations. Facial biometrics has been employed at stations where the train travels to and from China.

統模擬設備供應商投資研發視頻伺服器系

統的熱情還不算高，一些涉足IP視頻監視

市場的供應商都把主要精力放在IP／網絡

攝像機上。Outlook in Hong Kong香港市場的前景

No country has been immune to the global financial crisis; Hong Kong and every industry out there have been affected by this crisis, with varying degrees of severity. The short-term future for the industry looks challenging. 全球金融危機中無一國家得以倖免，而

香港和本地的各行各業亦都受到不同程度

的衝擊。金融市場的動盪直至2009年第三,

四季度才有所平息，餘波恐怕蔓延到2010

年，行業短期前景不容樂觀。

The failing economy could, however, provide a boon for companies that are involved in security. As economic pressures filter down to the middle and lower income classes, crime will increase. In the light of this, large growth can be expected in electronic access control systems and video surveillance to monitor customer and employee behaviors in retail outlets, shopping malls, hotels, parking lots, and so on. It is also expected that the companies will benefit from any government investment that will help compensate for the decline in the economy.然而，下滑的經濟卻為從事安防業務的

公司帶來商機。隨著經濟壓力施加於中低

收入階層，犯罪率將會上升，於是店舖,商

場,酒店,停車場等的電子門禁系統及影像


Economy22

虧，惟有目光長遠，才能立於不敗之地。

然而衰退襲來之際，縱使再有遠見的企

業也難免受到衝擊，衰退固然可怕，但更

重要的是重振旗鼓，鍥而不捨，才不致被

淘汰出局。

The same applies to the smart card industry. On the whole, the smart card industry participants should concentrate on their core competencies for their respective applications through utilizing all the benefits from government subsidies, tax cuts, and so on. The next stage should be in investing, or at least laying the foundation, for the next year from when an economic upswing is likely to be witnessed. New applications should be tapped now. Strategic alliances should also not be ruled out. A strategic alliance would help the industry participant to expand to new markets, as well as allow it to concentrate on its core competency.智能卡行業也是同樣的道理。整體而

言，業界公司當善用政府補貼,減稅等契

機，著力培育自身的核心競爭力。下一

步要著眼於來年的投資，務求為來年打

好基礎，以迎接經濟回升。現在開發新

的應用正當其時，亦可考慮戰略聯盟。

聯盟有助業界參與者開拓新的市場，亦

可使其更加專注自身的核心競爭力。|AT|

This article was authored by Michelle Foong, Industry Analyst, Asia Pacific Smart Cards Practice and Parul Oswal, Industry Analyst, Asia Pacific RFID & Security Practice, Frost & Sullivan.本文作者：Michelle Foong（Frost

& Sullivan亞太智能卡業務部行業分析

師）,Parul Oswal（Frost & Sullivan亞

太RFID與安防業務部行業分析師）。

The current economic recession indicates that participants that were looking at a short-term gain were the worst affected, while those looking at long-terms gains still have their investments in place.

監視設備需求亦水漲船高，以監視這些

場所的顧客和員工的行為。除此之外，

這些公司還將從政府提振經濟的投資中

受惠。

In addition, during these hard times where companies are reducing their workforce, physical security becomes increasingly important to overcome issues regarding both external and internal workplace theft.艱難時期許多公司都會裁員，為了化解

工作場所監守自盜和來自外部的盜竊風

險，實體安防的重要性日漸凸顯。

Falling prices of security products are likely to increase adoption during this slump in the economy. Although companies might not realize the ROI with the fall in prices, these lower prices might help them to remain in business; falling prices will make the security systems and their applications much more economical to install.經濟不景氣，安防產品的價格跟著下

跌，而這也許會成為其推廣使用的契機。

價格下跌不會給公司帶來投資回報，但卻

有助公司維持經營，因為降價後的安防系

統及其應用在安裝上要實惠得多。

The current economic recession indicates that participants that were looking at a short-term gain were the worst affected, while those looking at long-terms gains still have their investments in place. However, this does not mean that the long-term participants are not affected by the recession. They need not be as concerned about the current recession, but will still have to reinforce their projects to make sure that they do not go off track. 這輪經濟衰退告訴我們，逐短利者吃大

The airlines in india, like mosT other airlines around the world suffered losses during the recession, but not to an extent that drove any of them to shut down. The recession was one of the factors airlines had to weather along with many more such as taxes, fuel charges, maintenance costs, leasing charges, etc. The situation however saw a shift in the market dynamics of the airline industry as low cost airlines became the preferred airlines for many corporate, business and frequent travellers. In fact, some of the low cost airlines increased their market share in the downturn. The airlines in India

realize that the long-term potential of the industry is lucrative and the demand scenario will be positive even with the slightest positive change in the economy.

與全球各地其他航空公司類似，印度航空

公司在經濟低迷期間損失慘重，但沒有一

家公司達到破產倒閉的境地。經濟低迷只

是航空公司必須面對的問題之一，其他因

素還包括稅收,燃油成本,保養費用,租賃

成本等。不過，航空公司積極應對形勢變

化，廉價航空公司已成為諸多公司,企業

及頻繁出行者的新寵。實際上，部分廉價

航空公司在經濟低迷時期的市場份額甚至

有增無減。印度的航空公司意識到，該業

務領域的長期潛力無窮，即使在經濟略有

好轉的情況下，市場需求亦會十分旺盛。

During the recession, most airlines in India only had to ground a very fractional size of their entire fleet, but the positive sign of growth in the Indian market is reflected in the resumption of operations by almost the majority of fleets owned by the airlines in India (both legacy and low cost). The Director General of Civil Aviation India (DCGA) has reported that there has been a growth of 26% in domestic passenger traffic in 2009 compared to that of the previous year. Also, the airlines in India realize the long term business potential and


Economy 23

作者/by Chethan Kambi

different for each of these activities and also depends on factors such as OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturers) and authorized MRO centres. Currently, in India there is a lack of these MRO facilities and the huge needy market waiting to be fulfilled poses tremendous potential investment opportunity for many international MRO players and investors. The opportunity exists due to several reasons such as the current fleet dynamics, the scope of MRO activities that are required, the market potential and other potential revenue generating streams.一架飛機需要投入上百萬美元，如能得

到理想的保養，營運期可長達18至22年。

飛機的全部保養工作被稱為 MRO，即保養

（Maintenance）,維修（Repair）及檢修

（Overhaul），分為引擎,機身,線路及其他

部分（系統,組件及翻新）的保養。各項工

作以飛機的營運週期為基礎，具體視飛機

類型及飛機品牌而定。不同工作對人員的

能力,專業知識及技能證書要求不一，同時

the importance of staying put in the business. However, in order for the airlines to sustain and operate under favourable limits, all the ‘additional’ costs have to be curtailed. One of the areas where major cost savings may be realized for the airlines in India is in aircraft maintenance. Aircraft maintenance is a major cost factor for airlines in India since the maintenance industry is not at a level that meets the requirements and needs of the industry. There is a very prominent gap between the demand and supply scenario in the maintenance needs.在經濟低迷時期，印度多數航空公司不

得不縮減航班規模，但印度航空公司擁有

的多數航線已恢復營運（包括傳統航空公

司及廉價航空公司），成為印度市場出現

增長的積極信號。印度民航局局長公佈的

統計資料顯示，較之去年，印度2009年國

內客流量增長26％。印度的航空公司同時

認識到長期業務潛力及保持業務運轉的重

要性。不過，為保持航空公司在合理限度

內維持營運，必須嚴格削減所有「額外」

成本。飛機保養是印度航空公司實現大幅

成本節省的領域之一。對印度的航空公司

而言，飛機保養是重要成本因素，原因在

於，印度的飛機保養行業發展水平無法滿

足航空業的需求。飛機保養的需求與服務

提供之間存在巨大缺口。

An aircraft is a million dollar investment that, with proper maintenance, can continue to operate for long terms of anywhere between 18 and 22 years. The entire maintenance activity of aircraft, termed MRO – Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul, is classified into Engine, Airframe, Line and Other (Systems, Components and Refurbishments) maintenance. All these activities are based on certain operating cycles for the aircraft and are dependent on the aircraft type and aircraft brand. The level of personnel skill, expertise and the certifications required are

還與OEM（原始設備製造商）及授權的 MRO

中心等因素密不可分。印度目前缺乏此類

MRO 設施，由於目前存在難以滿足的巨大

市場需求，印度為諸多跨國 MRO 企業及投

資機構提供大量投資機會。存在投資機會

的原因包括：當前航班量,行業對 MRO 服

務的需求量,市場潛力以及其他潛在的收

入來源。

Aircraft Scenario飛機現狀

MRO establishments require a certain number of aircrafts to visit their hangars annually, for different activities. In a country like India where there is a lack of efficient and highly capable MRO facilities, the scope for setting up MROs is high. The cost required to set up, again is dependent on the aircraft type (Narrow body or Wide body) and the location (SEZs or Airports or Aeroparks). MRO 服務設施的持續運轉要求每年有特

定數量的飛機進入維修機庫，完成不同的

保養工作。由於印度缺乏運轉高效且服務

能力較強的 MRO 設施，新建 MRO 設施的

服務領域十分寬廣。建立 MRO 設施的成本

與飛機類型（窄體或寬體）及選址（SEZ,

機場或航空園區）息息相關。

The average age of the current Indian aircraft fleet is fairly young and this is a very critical factor in terms of setting up an MRO business in the country. Close to 60% of the existing fleet fall below 5 years of age; which is an eye opening fact for many of the investors as this means


Economy24

An aircraft is a million dollar investment that, with proper maintenance, can continue to operate for long terms of anywhere between 18 and 22 years.

that a majority of the aircraft will come off the warranty period soon and that is when they will start hitting the MROs.目前，印度的民用飛機機齡較低，這對

於在印度開拓 MRO 業務具有重要意義。印

度目前的民用飛機近60％的機齡不足5年，

諸多投資人可從中嗅到投資機遇，即多數

飛機的保修期即將結束，將為 MRO 業務帶

來巨大市場。

Despite the fact that there is/will be a huge market for MROs in the country, many airlines currently send their aircraft out of the country, due to the lack of existing local sophisticated facilities. As of 2009, a total of 391 aircraft are owned by airlines in India and this number is expected to reach a figure of 612 by the year ending 2015. So from the point of view of the aircraft number, which happens to be very important for the MRO activities, it also poses a good sign for investment in the country.儘管印度存在或即將出現巨大的 MRO 市

場，但由於目前國內缺乏成熟的設施，諸

多航空公司只能選擇將飛機送至海外維

護。截至2009年，印度的航空公司共擁有

391架飛機，預計截至2015年底，該數字將

攀升至612架。由於飛機數量是 MRO 業務

的關鍵要素，就飛機數量來看，印度市場

可提供難得的投資機遇。

Scope for MRO ActivitiesMRO 業務的範圍

Assets owned by commercial airlines have long operational life cycles and are worth multi-million dollars. The majority of airline operating costs can be attributed to labour, fuel/oil, ownership, and maintenance. Maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) is a key activity that ensures sustained operation of both aircraft and engines and also has an impact on the safety of the aircraft. Maintenance costs for airlines are a constant expenditure. Once procured, the engine or aircraft has to be maintained regularly with adherence to quality and time lines. Performing optimal maintenance is the key toward reducing the overall costs.民用航空公司擁有的資產營運週期較

長，價值數百萬美元。航空公司主要營

運成本的構成要素包括人工,燃油,採購

費用及維護保養費用。保養,維修及檢修

（MRO）是至關重要的工作內容，可確保

飛機及引擎的持續正常運轉，對飛機安全

亦有重要影響。保養成本是航空公司的持

續開支項目。購買飛機後，引擎或飛機必

須定期維護，嚴格遵守廠商的質素及時間

要求。合理完成保養工作是降低總體成本

的關鍵。

The airlines in India spend close to 13.0% to 15.0% of their revenues on maintenance. Currently, the airlines are looking forward to MRO facilities in the country that comply with standards (FAA, EASA, and DGCA) so that costs can be reduced with better turn around. The key aspects for MROs will be maintenance processes, practices, and efficiency that are to be brought in correspondence with infrastructure and response time. Currently, the majority of the Indian fleet of aircraft fly out of the country for heavy maintenance activities. This trend is expected to increase once the average age starts increasing and this is the main reason that the country requires MROs to be set up. Also, labour rates that are charged in India will effectively be 15 to 20 dollars less per man hour. Many airlines in India who are willing to send their aircraft to domestic MROs view the credibility

of the MRO as a major factor, and in order for this credibility factor to be established, it would be imperative to incorporate internationally renowned MROs in JVs and collaborations. The make or break of JVs or collaborations in India depends heavily on the profit sharing models. Several foreign MRO companies have had or are having discussions with Indian entities to form JVs, but the bottom line is that the gestation period and the return co-efficient will determine the nature of set up and holding structure. 印度的航空公司一般將收入的13.0％至

15.0％用於保養。目前，印度的航空公司

正積極尋找國內符合行業標準（FAA,EASA

及 DGCA）的 MRO 設施，從而降低成本，

提高業績。維護流程,實際操作及工作效

率是 MRO 業務的關鍵要素，同時還需具

備相應的基礎設施，且擁有快速相應能

力。目前，印度多數民用飛機須飛赴海

外完成重大保養工作。如果平均機齡開始

增加，預計將有更多飛機要到海外完成保

養，這正是印度需要發展 MRO 服務的主

要原因。另外，印度國內的工時費僅為每

人每小時不到15至20美元。對於多數印度

航空公司而言，如由國內 MRO 服務機構


Economy 25

Despite the fact that there is/will be a huge market for MROs in the country, many airlines currently send their aircraft out of the country, due to the lack of existing local sophisticated facilities

保養飛機，此類 MRO 服務機構的專業可

信度是重要考慮因素，為建立此專業可信

度，吸引國際著名 MRO 服務機構建立合

資公司及合作勢在必行。印度國內合資公

司或合作關係的成敗主要由利潤分享模式

決定。多家境外 MRO 公司已經或正在與

印度企業協商建立合資公司，業務孕育期

及回報係數將成為決定公司性質及持股結

構的關鍵。

MROs in India: 印度的 MRO 市場：

• Currently, the MRO market in India remains unattended and the scope for a third-party MRO is quite high.

• 目前，印度的 MRO 市場不受重視，第三方 MRO 機構的業務範圍廣闊。

• Market addressability is expected to be good with regards to the Indian fleet and is bound to improve over the next years.

• 鑒於印度民航業務將在未來幾年內顯著增長，市場前景可觀。

• The entire MRO market is tracked in terms of revenues and fleet.

• 可參照收入及飛機規模追蹤整個 MRO 市場。

Engine:引擎：

• In terms of cost, engine maintenance constitutes a major portion of the MRO chain in the Indian scenario.

• 就成本而言，引擎保養在印度市場

佔據 MRO 業務鏈的較大比例。• The nature of work involved is very skill

intensive and cost is also high.• 引擎保養工作對技術能力要求較高，成本亦較高

• Engine maintenance is an activity that requires accreditation and authorization from the OEMs to carry out the tasks.

• 要想完成引擎保養工作，OEM 合作方必須具備專業可信度及授權。

Airframe:機身：

• Airframe maintenance forms the next important link in the MRO chain.

• 機身保養是 MRO 業務鏈的下一個重要環節。

• The aircraft follows certain cycles and this cycle incorporates the various checks at different stages.

• 飛機須遵守特定的使用週期，使用週期內，必須在不同階段完成多種檢修。

• Airframe maintenance is labour-intensive and the time period for carrying out checks depends on the nature of the check.

• 機身保養須投入密集勞動力，完成檢修所需的時間由檢修性質決定。

Line:線路：

• Line maintenance is done on a constant basis.

• 線路保養須持續進行。• All the airlines carry out this task on

the tarmac. This day to day activity involves basic checks that help to maintain good health of the aircraft.

• 所用航空公司均在停機坪上完成該工作。該日常保養公司包括基礎檢查，有助於保持飛機的健康狀態。

• Qualified engineers and technicians carry out the line maintenance checks as stipulated and required.

• 具備資格的工程師及技術人員須按照規定及要求完成線路保養。

Other:其他：

• The others section broadly includes the components’ repair and overhaul and systems and modifications.

• 其他部分主要包括組件維修,檢修,系統檢測及修正。


Economy26

2008

2.1%

4.4%

5.9%

8.3%

9.8%

4.8%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Num

ber

of A

ircra

ft飛機數量

Flee

t Gro

wth

Rat

e(%

)飛機メ長率（％）

Commercial Aviation MRO Market: Overall Fleet Forecasts(India), 2009-2015民航 MRO 市場：飛機規模總體預測（印度），2009年－2015年

20090

100

Reve

nues

($ M

illio

n)收入（百萬美元）

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

498.8

1,067.8

Engine Maintenance

Component Maintenance

Airframe Heavy Maintenance 機身重大保養Line Maintenance 線路保養

Commercial Aviation MRO Market: Total MRO Revenue Forecasts(India), 2009-2015民航 MRO 市場：合計 MRO 收入預測（印度），2009年－2015年

引擎保養

• These activities complete the MRO chain and various factors such as time, need, and cycles determine the frequency of their occurrence.

• 此類工作是 MRO 業務鏈的最後組成部分，時間,需求及使用週期等諸多因素決定此類工作的頻率。

• OEM specifics and guidelines play a crucial role.

• OEM 的說明及指引發揮重要作用。

Market Value市場價值

In terms of the addressability in the Indian landscape, the market is valued at close to USD 500 million and this figure is expected to reach a value of USD 1068 million by the year 2015. This figure is the total addressable revenue opportunity that is pertinent to the Indian fleet. Countries that currently service the Indian fleet are the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Malaysia, Finland, and others when it comes to the heavier/higher checks. Recently, even Sri Lanka has been tapping the opportunity and some Indian aircraft fly to the island nation. The major reasons for the Indian fleet to fly outside bearing the additional costs are:就印度市場的前景而言，市場價值接近5

億美元，預計該數字將於2015年達到10.68

億美元。該數字是參照印度市場飛機規模的

合計可估算收入機會。目前為印度飛機提供

重大檢修服務的國家包括阿聯酋,英國,新加

坡,馬來西亞,芬蘭及其他國家。近期，斯裏

蘭開亦開始把握該領域的業務機會，吸引部

分印度飛機前往。印度飛機承擔額外成本飛

赴海外完成保養的主要原因包括：

• Lack of third-party MROs/airlines that have all the capabilities to satisfy the one-stop-shop visit.• 國內缺乏實力雄厚的第三方 MRO 服務機構，無法提供一站式全面服務。• Lack of necessary approvals and certificates that mandate the aircraft maintenance -- FAA, EASA, and DGCA.• 缺乏監管飛機保養的必要核准及認證－FAA,EASA 及 DGCA。• Absence of infrastructure set-ups and hangar facilities meeting world-class standards.• 沒有能達到世界級標準的基礎設施及機庫設施。

The opportunity to delve into the Indian MRO market poses challenges

in terms of the investment, geographic identification and adequate manpower training. The manpower exists but what is needed is the skill impartation or rather the transformation. Working on aircraft maintenance needs not only the necessary skills but an appreciation of the depth involved in the demands of quality and standards.儘管進入印度 MRO 市場機會難得，但在

投資,選址及理想的人力培訓方面，亦存在

挑戰。印度雖然人力豐富，但必須深度培

訓專業人才，使其掌握大量專業技能。對

於參與飛機保養工作的人員而言，不僅要

具備專業能力，還應具備追求卓越品質及

標準的精神。

Conclusion總結

As the Indian MRO market unfurls, there is a need for the existence of 2-3 very good players to service the Indian fleet. The fleet dynamics will pose good business opportunities in the next 4-5 years and this can be tapped if companies were to

establish themselves in India in the near future. The Indian MRO value chain can be addressed under engine, airframe and other sections, with the exception of line maintenance which is predominantly carried out by the airlines. The existing availability of manpower will aid the development process and if the policies and bureaucracy structure are addressed, then we can expect India to be a bubbling market not just for MROs but also for MRO related manufacturing. India has the potential to address the entire value chain of the MRO and in turn generate close to 6,000,000 jobs over a period of 10 years.隨著印度 MRO 市場的需求啟動，需要2

－3個一流服務企業為印度飛機提供保養服

務。在未來4－5年內，印度民航飛機的結構

將催生大量商機，如果相關企業能在不久的

將來進駐印度市場，定能把握該絕佳機遇。

印度 MRO 市場的價值鏈包括引擎,機身及其

他部分，線路保養屬例外情況，因為該工作

主要由航空公司自身完成。印度人力資源豐

富的優勢有助於 MRO 市場的發展，如果政

府能推出相關政策及管理模式，我們預計，

印度不僅能實現 MRO 市場的繁榮，還可實

現 MRO 相關製造業的蓬勃發展。印度有潛

力涵蓋 MRO 的全部價值鏈，在未來10年內

將催生近 6,000,000 個工作崗位。

The airlines are involved in running their businesses efficiently and every cost saving opportunity will be appreciated by them. The setting up of MROs will be more than a boon to the airlines in India and also for some of the regional carriers slated to kick start operations very soon. In the wake of the economic development, the country has all the more reason to encourage and support MROs and encourage the internal growth of industries related to MRO.航空公司目前尤其重視業務效率，絕不

放過任何節省成本的機會。開展 MRO 業務

將使印度航空公司獲益匪淺，亦能幫助舉

步維艱的地區航空公司快速恢復營運。在

經濟出現好轉的形勢下，印度完全有理由

鼓勵並扶植 MRO 市場，同時鼓勵 MRO 相

關行業的內部增長。|AT|

This article was authored by: Chethan Kambi, Senior Research Analyst, South Asia and Middle East Aerospace & Defense Practice, Frost & Sullivan.本文作者：Chethan Kambi，Frost &

Sullivan 南亞及中東航空及國防業務部高

級研究分析師。


Economy 27

In terms of the addressability in the Indian landscape, the market is valued at close to USD 500 million and this figure is expected to reach a value of USD 1068 million by the year 2015


Economy28

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For Asian Tigers 0110供：亞洲虎0110

As the lAst smoke from the New Year’s Eve fireworks display over Kuala Lumpur’s Petronas Twin Towers vaporizes, Malaysia prepares to face the new decade. It passed the first decade of the millennium in a reasonably sound position having escaped most of the impacts of the 2008 global economic meltdown.

除夕夜的最後一縷煙花飄散在吉隆坡雙

子塔上空，馬來西亞揭開了新十年的序

幕。僥倖躲過2008年全球衰退的正面衝

擊，新世紀的頭十年，大馬平安度過。

Many economic issues made the headlines in 2009 and no doubt, will still be discussed in 2010. These range

from liberalization of the economy, the transformation of the country to a high-income nation, to a possible Goods and Services Tax (GST), the possibility of a third economic stimulus package, and the potential growth in GDP in 2010.2009年許多經濟議題引發熱議，2010年

無疑還要爭論下去，比如經濟自由化,國家

富強,商品及服務稅（GST）,第三次刺激方

案，還有2010年的經濟增長。

Many see 2010 as a transition year in which the Malaysian economy recovers while the government lays the foundations to facilitate the country’s transformation into a high-income economy.大家都把2010年視為一個過渡期，一方

面等待經濟復甦，另一方面讓政府打好基

礎，推動國家向高收入經濟體邁進。

Third Time Lucky再一,再二…再三？

The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) Executive Director Prof Emeritus Datuk Dr Mohamed Ariff claims that Malaysian businesses may need to keep a close eye on the health of the US economy during 2010. He suggests that, should the US economy experience a double dip recession, the Malaysian Government may need to pump prime the economy.馬來西亞經濟研究所（MIER）執行董事

拿督莫哈末·阿里夫博士表示，大馬企業

需密切關注2010年美國經濟的健康態勢。

他說倘若美國經濟二次探底，大馬政府或

需出手提振經濟。

Like all good arguments, there is however another side. HSBC Singapore


Economy 29

新十年　新大馬

Malaysia Begins a New Decade 作者/by

David Bowden

senior Asian economist for global research, Robert Prior-Wandesforde was quoted in early December as saying that Malaysia did not need a third stimulus package even if the US economy relapsed into recession. He claimed that the full effects of the previous two stimulus packages have not yet come into effect. Wandesforde also predicted the economy to grow by 6.8% in 2010. 真是棋逢對手，滙豐銀行新加坡分行負

責全球研究的資深亞洲經濟學家羅伯特·

普萊爾·萬德斯福德就在12月初表示，縱

使美國重陷衰退，大馬也不需要第三次經

濟刺激。他說前兩次刺激方案的效果還未

完全展現出來，他預計2010年大馬經濟可

增長6.8%。

Growing Pains成長的煩惱

Meanwhile, the government is predicting the economy to grow by 5% in 2010 although some independent researchers think this is a little too optimistic. Much of this will be from domestic demand and this is confirmed by the recent release of the HSBC Affluent Asian Tracker, a survey conducted by Nielsen for the HSBC

Group. Released in early January, the report indicated that more affluent Malaysians say they are wealthier compared to six months ago. Another indicator is the sale of cars by the national carmaker Proton almost doubled in the second quarter of 2009. They also report that they expect these sales to be sustainable when the figures for the second half are released.政府預測2010年經濟增長5%，不過有獨

立研究人士認為這未免過於樂觀。增長的

動力主要來自內需，最近滙豐銀行發表的

「亞洲富豪跟蹤報告」也證實了這一點。

在這份滙豐銀行委託尼爾森所作並於1月

初發表的報告中，有更多的馬來西亞富豪

說他們比六個月之前更加富有。還有一個

跡象是馬來西亞的國營汽車製造商普騰，

在2009年第二季度的銷量幾乎翻倍。該公

司表示，預計下半年還會保持旺盛的銷售

勢頭。

However, the MIER expects the economy to only grow by 3.7% in 2010 (coming from what it suggests was -3% in 2009) but would grow to 5% in 2011. They have suggested for the government to attain 5% in 2010 there will be a cost as it will mean a bigger budget deficit and a larger national debt. 然而，馬經濟研究所卻預計2010年的經

濟增長率僅為3.7%（估計2009年有3%的負增

長），2011年會增至5%。該機構稱，政府要

想使2010年的增長率達到5%，就意味著更多

的預算赤字和更重的國家債務，得不償失。

Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicted in mid December a growth rate of 4.5% for 2010. The Manila-based financial organization reported -5.1% contraction in the first half of 2009 and -1.2% in the third quarter. This resulted from a decrease in external demand for its exports which affected the whole region but most significantly in Malaysia and Thailand. Malaysia’s 4.5% for 2010 compares to the ADB’s predictions of Vietnam (6.5%), Indonesia (5.4%), Singapore (4.5%), Philippines (3.3%), and Brunei (2.3%) in 2010. These are also to be considered with the bank’s predictions of 8.9% for China and India of 7%. The ADB claimed that the situation was changing rapidly and that prospects for greater growth were better now than they were in September 2009 when the last study was conducted.亞洲開發銀行（下稱「亞開行」）於12

月中旬預測2010年增長率為4.5%。這間總

部位於馬尼拉的金融機構報告稱，2009年

上半年馬經濟萎縮5.1%，第三季度下降

1.2%，主要是出口遭遇外需下滑所致，整

個地區都受波及，尤以馬來西亞和泰國最

嚴重。除了馬來西亞的4.5%，亞開行還預

測 2010年越南經濟增長率為6.5%,印尼

5.4%,新加坡4.5%,菲律賓3.3%,文萊2.3%

，而中國和印度則分別有8.9%和7%。亞開

行表示，形勢變化飛快，現在看來經濟復

甦的前景比2009年9月進行上一次調查時

好得多。

A senior economist with the World Bank, Philip Schellenkens was reported


Economy30

As the last smoke from the New Year’s Eve fireworks display over Kuala Lumpur’s Petronas Twin Towers vaporizes, Malaysia prepares to face the new decade.

Prof Emeritus Datuk Dr Mohamed Ariff

the global economic crisis started in 2008. 2009年大馬經濟的另一件大事是市場自

由化，不過相關措施仍需時日才能奏效。

世界銀行指出一個重要問題是必須放鬆投

資管制，才能吸引更多外資。流入大馬的

私人投資出現下滑，可能就是因為2008年

全球經濟危機的動盪時期，別處市場的機

遇比大馬更多。

The government’s 2009/2010 Economic Report estimates that private investment contracted by some 20% in 2009, one of the largest drops in recent time. The decline started with the Asian economic meltdown in 1997/98 and

in mid December as suggesting the Malaysian economy could return to 6% annual growth by 2012. The bank predicts the economy to grow by 4.1% in 2010.據報道，世界銀行資深經濟學家菲利

普·紹爾肯斯曾在12月中旬預測，到2012

年大馬經濟有望恢復6%的年度增長率。該

行預測2010年經濟增長4.1%。

To Tax or Not to Tax徵稅之爭

With a suggestion that not many Malaysians actually pay tax, there is talk of a GST being introduced in 2011. Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Ahmad Husni Hanadzlah has entered the debate by reminding Malaysians that some 143 other countries have a GST and that Malaysia, along with Brunei and Myanmar are the only countries in the region that don’t have a GST. If introduced it would possibly be at the rate of 4% and would replace the current sales and service tax of 5-10% and would increase the effectiveness of Malaysia’s revenue collection. The tax would cover more items than the current tax and it would therefore be harder for consumers to avoid and thus force more to make a higher contribution to the tax coffers. 據說真正照章納稅的大馬百姓其實不

多，於是2011年將要開徵商品及服務稅的

傳聞甚囂塵上。第二財政部長拿督阿末胡

斯尼加入到這場辯論，他提醒民眾說，現

在世界上約有143個國家設有商品及服務

稅，在本地區，只剩下馬來西亞,文萊及緬

甸尚無此稅。如果開徵的話，稅率可能為

4%，它將取代現行稅率為5-10%的銷售及服

務稅，可提高大馬的徵稅效率。這個稅項

的覆蓋範圍比當前稅項更廣，所以消費者

很難有避稅的機會，這樣就把更多人納入

到徵稅之列，擴大了稅收來源。

Market Liberalization市場自由化

Another important economic event in 2009 was the liberalization of Malaysia’s economic playing field but it will take some time for these measures to take effect. Important issues identified by the World Bank include the need to ease investment rules to attract more foreign investment. Private investment into Malaysia has dropped probably because the market saw more opportunities elsewhere in the turbulent times after

really hasn’t gained much momentum since. By its own admission, the government only sees a 3.4% growth in private investment in 2010.政府的2009/2010經濟報告估計，2009

年私人投資萎縮約20%，為近年來最大跌

幅。其實下跌之勢始於1997-1998年的亞

洲經濟危機，從那以後就沒真正好轉過。

政府也承認，2010年私人投資能增3.4%就

算不錯。

The World Bank’s Philip Schellenken also claims that in order to boost future development, there needs to be a growth in skilled domestic workers. Coupled with this, according to Schellenken is the need for more Malaysian companies to harness technological innovation.世界銀行的菲利普·紹爾肯斯表示，為

今後的發展著想，大馬需要培養熟練的本

國工人，與此同時大馬公司也要善用技術

創新。

No one admits the road to recovery is going to be easy, but many express cautious optimism.看來復甦道路絕非坦途，但是謹慎樂觀

者也不在少數。|AT|


Economy 31

The government’s 2009/2010 Economic Report estimates that private investment contracted by some 20% in 2009; one of the largest drops in recent time.

The year 2010 serves as anoTher milestone for the ASEAN in the light of the following developments:

的確，長時間以來，已通過東盟自由貿易

區和東盟自由貿易區是於 1992 年制定。

然而，儘管這個過程是緩慢的，很清楚，

具體，已採取步驟實現其目標消除關稅壁

壘，成員國之間。在最近幾年，該集團已

敲定議定書的修正於在下列合作進展的

影響下，2010 年將成為東盟發展歷史上的

又一里程碑

a. January 2010 marks another step towards a ‘full-fledged’ free trade zone for the ASEAN as tariffs are brought down to zero among the six founding members of the region.

a.2010 年 1月，六個創始成員國之間實

現零關稅，標誌著東盟自由貿易區走向成熟。

b. ASEAN has likewise emerged as a hub through which regional agreements are being forged between ASEAN as a group and a number of neighboring economies. This is clear from the following agreements: ASEAN+Korea (Trade in Goods in 2006, 2007 for services, and 2009 for Investments1), AFTA+New Zealand and Australia (AANZFTA signed in 2009), the ASEAN Japan Comprehensive Econ Partnership (2008), AFTA+China (signed in 2004 and 2009 for investments), and ASEAN+India (agreement in Goods signed in 2009).

Most of these will come into force by 2010 for the ASEAN-6.b. 東盟與多個相鄰經濟體簽署地區合作

協議，東盟日趨成為地區經濟中樞。各項

合作協議如下：東盟 +韓國（2006 年商品

貿易協議，2007 年服務協議，2009 年投資

協議）,東盟自由貿易區 +新西蘭及澳洲

（2009 年簽署 AANZFTA 協議）,東盟與日本

全面經濟合作協議（2008 年）,東盟自由貿

易區 +中國（2004 年簽署，2009 年簽署投

資協議）及東盟 +印度（2009 年簽署商品

貿易協議）。多數協議將於 2010 年在東盟

六國生效。

True, a long period has passed since the ASEAN FTA or AFTA was insti-tuted in 1992. Nevertheless, while the process has been slow, it is clear that

FEBRUARY 2010

32 Economy


作者/by Emilio T. Antonio, Jr., Ph. D.

concrete steps have been taken towards its goal of eliminating tariff barriers among member countries. In the more recent years, the group has hammered out Protocol Amendments in 2000 and 2003, and the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) in 2009. By 2010 the AFTA is virtually in place, at least for the ASEAN-6.東盟自由貿易區建立於 1992 年，已走

過相當長的發展歷程。儘管發展過程步履

緩慢，但成員國已邁出堅實步伐，致力於

實現消除關稅壁壘的目標。近年來，該組

織於 2000 年及 2003 年簽訂修改協議，並

於 2009 年簽訂東盟商品貿易協議。進入

2010 年，東盟自由貿易區至少在東盟六國

之間已經形成。

These milestones, therefore, serve as reminders that although the process towards achieving its goal of dismantling trade barriers has been slow, the ASE-AN is definitely getting closer towards greater regional cooperation and com-mon prosperity. The ultimate objective is to create a single production base and market, which is indeed sizable. It has a combined GDP of $1.5 trillion and 4.4 percent growth in 20082. It is likewise gaining an important place in the global economy as a regional platform for production. With the rapid growth of its biggest neighbor, China, it is expected that it would eventually rely on the ASEAN for some of its needs, most notably in food production.這些具有里程碑意義的進展表明，

儘管實現消除關稅壁壘的過程步履

緩慢，但東盟成員國的確在積極合

作，努力實現更好的地區合作及共同

繁榮。該組織的最終目標是建立單一

生產基地及市場，其規模不容小覷。

2008 年，東盟成員國綜合 GDP 高達

1.5 萬億美元，增幅達 4.4％。作為

地區生產平台，東盟在全球經濟中已

佔據舉足輕重的地位。中國是東盟最

大的鄰國，經濟保持高速增長，預計

中國最終將依賴東盟滿足部分自身需求，

尤其是糧食生產。

Benefits and Costs收益及成本

Will these efforts yield the expected benefits to member-countries? Definitely, yes. Will these outweigh the costs? It depends. For sure, with more of these regional trade agreements in place more barriers to trade have been dismantled and the magnitudes of both the benefits and the costs have expanded. Whether the gains will more than

offset the losses will now depend on how these are managed -- a matter on which a lot of ink has been spilled and which rightly deserves more in-depth and subsequently lengthier discussions. While the debate on this issue still continues, some lessons and reminders

may already be distilled. 上述各項努力能否使成員國得到預期收

益？答案無疑是肯定的。收益能否超過成

本？這要視具體情況而定。可以肯定的是，

隨著更多地區貿易協定的簽署，將消除更

多貿易壁壘，收益及成本均同時擴大。現時，

收益能否超出成本須由合作關係的管理方

式決定，各國之間已為此簽署大量協議，

且需要進行更深入且更漫長的磋商。儘管

針對該問題的爭論仍在繼續，我們已經能

總結出部分經驗教訓。

Economists consider trade barri-ers, in general, to reduce efficiency and thereby result in welfare losses for the

trading parties concerned where markets work (i.e. where there are no market failures). To them, the ideal world will largely be made up by a world free of tariff barriers. Bringing down barriers selectively (e.g. within regions as most FTAs of today do), however, brings about some con-cerns. Foremost, and probably the most notorious is the concern that these ‘second-best’ arrangements of regional trade liberalization may be taken as a step back or away from the ultimate goal of global free trade. This has been given the name ‘spa-ghetti bowl effect’.經濟學家普遍認為，貿易壁壘會降低

效率，會導致正常市場（即不存在市

場失效）的交易各方福利受損。經濟

學家認為，沒有關稅壁壘的市場才是

最理想的市場。不過，有選擇的消除

關稅壁壘（例如當今多數自由貿易區

的做法）會帶來隱憂。最重要或者說最引

人關注的憂慮即，這些地區貿易自由化的

「次佳」協議可能帶來倒退，使全球自由貿

易的最終目標更為遙遠。這種現象被稱為

「意大利麵碗效應」。

One example which serves to high-light this issue is the complication in the mechanism needed to make regional

1 Also marks inclusion of Thailand which has previously opted out of the agreement.

1 亦包括泰國，但泰國已退出該協議。

2 GDP in current prices, (IMF World Economic Outlook Database 2009 and the ASEAN Secretariat)

2 現價GDP （2009年國際貨幣基金組織全球經濟展望數據庫及東盟秘書處）


Economy 33

the ASEAN is definitely getting closer towards greater regional cooperation and common prosperity. The ultimate objective is to create a single production base and market, which is indeed sizable.

FTAs operational.3 This is usually done through the enforcement of Rules of Origin (ROO) guidelines which serve to identify which items should be charged at certain tariff rates. Obviously, this imposes time and transactions costs. Certainly, the problem would not exist in a more global (or multilateral) liberalization. In regional FTAs, however, there would be a need for harmonization of standards and procedures and the use of a system in order to reduce transaction costs and processing time.說明該問題的一個實例即，要想實現可

運作的地區自由貿易區，必須制定複雜的

運作機制。3 現有自由貿易區通常透過執

行原產地規則（ROO）指引實現該目的，參

照該規則確定哪些商品應徵收特定關稅。

顯然，這種做法會帶來時間及交易成本。

當然，對於更加全球化（或多邊）自由化

市場，這種問題將不復存在。不過對於地

區自由貿易區，為減少交易成本及處理時

間，還需要制定合理的標準及流程，且有

必要採用一套合理的制度。

Numerous studies have sought to quantify these costs and benefits. The general conclusions: there are welfare gains (where some contend that more-developed and ‘bigger’ economies take a greater share of the gains) and these are not necessarily a step away from multi-lateral liberalization. Furthermore, big-ger (more partners) and more (greater scope of liberalization i.e. including or partially liberalizing agriculture) tends to be better.

為量化分析相關成本及收益，學者們曾

進行諸多研究。一般結論為：這些是福利

收益（部分學者認為，更為發達且「規模

更大」的經濟體得到的收益更多），且這些

措施並非使經濟遠離多邊自由化。此外，

自由貿易區越大（更多合作夥伴）越多（自

由化範圍更廣，即，包括或部分包括農業

自由化）則效果越好。

Some thoughts若干思考

Given these, what does this trend of more and more regional (as against multilateral or global) trade agreements hold for member-countries? Certainly our negotiators and trade officials have learned much over the years. Expect, therefore, future negotiations to go smoother and yield more advantages for the region. In particular, succeeding agreements have been increasingly patterned after previous ones in terms of classifications and procedures which facilitate processing and classifications and puts more structure into the “spaghetti bowl”.有鑒於此，地區（對應多邊或全球）貿

易協定越來越多的趨勢對成員國意味著什

麼？多年來，談判代表及貿易官員一定從

中學到諸多經驗。因此，未來的談判很可

能更為順利，且將為地區帶來更多收益。

會有越來越多的後續協議在分級及流程方

面仿效以往的協議，從而進一步推動處理

及分級工作，為「意大利麵碗」帶來更豐

富的內容。

Do we have more to bargain with for each succeeding agreement we come into? We don’t really know but the odds are in our favour given that we would be a larger trading bloc (and hoping that we do realize some immediate economic gains as well).在簽訂後續協議的過程中，我們是否會

有更多討價還價的空間？具體情況不得而

知，但鑒於我們是規模較大的貿易體，獲

得有利地位的可能性較高（希望我們亦能

實現部分眼前的經濟收益）。

Are we coming closer to the first-best of a multilateral/unilateral free trade scenario? This is even harder to answer. Some economists would argue that we are and would suggest that indeed the AFTA is a building bloc for multilateral free trade for the region. Nevertheless, we can go back to our answer in the first question – that is we have learned a lot

3 More can be found in: Medalla, E. and J. Balboa, 2009. “ASEAN Rules of Origin: Lessons and Recommendations for Best Practice.” ERIA Discussion Paper Series 2009-17. Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

3 如需了解更多內容，可查閱： Medalla, E. 及 J. Balboa，2009年。「東盟原產地規則：最佳實踐方法的經驗及建議（ASEAN Rules of Origin: Lessons and Recommendations for Best Practice）」，ERIA 研討論文系列2009-17。菲律賓發展研究院（Philippine Institute for Development Studies）。


Economy34

The general conclusions: there are welfare gains (where some contend that more-developed and ‘bigger’ economies take a greater share of the gains) and these are not necessarily a step away from multilateral liberalization.

from previous negotiation and imple-mentation efforts.我們是否正在接近成為一流多邊／單邊

自由貿易區的目標？這個問題甚至更難回

答。部分經濟學家認為我們正在縮短與目

標的距離，且認為東盟自由貿易區確實是

本地區的多邊自由貿易區。儘管如此，我

們還是要重新回答第一個問題，即我們已

經透過以往的談判及執行工作學到諸多寶

貴經驗。

How does this affect our other goals? For one, it has led to greater cooperation in other areas within the ASEAN. This in turn should lead to better and more policy coordination in response to global and domestic shocks.這對我們實現其他目標有何影響？舉例

而言，這有助於東盟其他地區之間建立更

好的合作，進而有助於實現更多更好的政

策協調，以應對全球及國內經濟衝擊。

Where are we and where are we going?我們身處何地？路在何方？

We must sift through what these FTAs should or can be expected to de-liver against what we can and do expect from them. It is important to keep in mind that these FTAs are sought while continually working with a stalled multi-lateral process and continuing individual trade liberalization schemes by member-countries. Should we be worried about low utilization rates? Not really, if the reason is because multilateral (MFN) rates are quite close or the same as ASEAN ones.

我們必須深入思考自由貿易區應該或能

夠提供哪些收益，對比我們能完成的工作

及預期收益。我們應時刻牢記，在實現自

由貿易區的過程中，我們必須貫徹多邊貿

易流程，適應成員國的個別貿易自由化計

劃。我們是否應擔憂低利用率的問題？如

果問題的原因在於多邊利用率十分接近或

等同於東盟利用率，則不必擔憂。

After almost two decades of the AFTA, what have we gained? Clearly, a lot of experience. The economic gains are hard to measure especially in light of the unending series of crises besetting the region (whether man-made, economic or political, or natural). Nevertheless the figures tell us that Intra-ASEAN trade has grown since the mid-1990s1 at a time when member-countries continue to pursue their individual trade liberalization schemes.在東盟自由貿易區走過近二十年歷程之

後，我們得到哪些收益？顯然，我們得到

大量寶貴經驗。經濟收益難以衡量，在本

地區危機不斷的情況下尤其如此（無論人

為 ,經濟 ,政治還是自然危機）。不過，統

計數據表明，自 20 世紀 90 年代以來4，東

盟成員國之間的貿易額持續增長，與此同

時，各成員國一直致力於執行各自的貿易

自由化計劃。

Where do we go from here? We should continue to push for multilateral trade talks but given the slowness this is ex-pected to entail we can continue to work towards regional FTAs which are 1) more

inclusive 2) more comprehensive and 3) in sync with other FTAs in force.前路又在何方呢？我們應繼續推動多邊貿

易磋商，鑒於該工作進展緩慢，最終目標還

有待後人實現，我們應繼續推動地區自由貿

易區的發展，使其具備以下優勢：1) 更具

包容性；2) 更全面；及 3) 與其他自由貿

易區協同配合。

On a related note we can also take in a few lessons about regional cooperation from the EU response to the crisis.透過歐盟為應對危機開展的地區合作，

我們能從中學到不少相關經驗。

• The impact of the financial crisis is ex-pectedly different when comparing the EU and the ASEAN. The regions do play different roles in the global econo-my. A decline in trade would be the is-sue for the ASEAN member-countries and to a lesser extent, currency… this implies though that though the initial impact may be behind us, the ASEAN has more to worry about the long term effect of the crisis on global trends of consumption and trade growth.

•對比歐盟及東盟，金融危機帶來的衝擊

並不相同。東盟地區在全球經濟中的確

發揮與眾不同的作用。東盟成員國普遍

面臨貿易額下降的問題，少數國家還面

臨貨幣問題，這表明，儘管金融危機的

早期衝擊已經結束，但東盟必須面對金

融危機給全球消費及貿易增長帶來的長

期影響。

• ASEAN economies have also proven to be more resilient and flexible than developed economies.

•事實表明，較之發達經濟體，東盟經濟

更具彈性及靈活性。|AT|

4 ASEAN Secretariat Statistics

4 東盟秘書處統計資料


Economy 35

Nevertheless the figures tell us that Intra-ASEAN trade has grown since the mid-1990s at a time when member-countries continue to pursue their individual trade liberalization schemes.

Tiger, The king of The beasTs; The Siberian tiger is “king of the kings”, and known for its strong build and ferocity.虎被称为百兽之王，东北虎因体大威猛又被称为王中之王。

At the foot of Mt. Hufeng of China Mt. Wan Dashan, the birth hometown of Siberian tigers, you will find the world’s biggest Siberian tiger Breeding Center. There are over 800 wild and fierce Siberian tigers living there, by the mountain and cold running waters.

老虎故乡虎虎生气

TigerHometownof the


36

In this year 2010 ‘The year of the Tiger’ in the Chinese Lunar Calendar, Asian Tigers magazine sent one of its Chinese photojournalists to the home of the Siberian Tiger

to produce this special New Year photographic spectacular for our readers.

Text & Photos: Wang Yuanchang王远昌文/图

During the summer there is an expanse of green, at winter time it becomes snow-white and very cold. A great surprise to me was that in the past 23 years, from only 8 tiger cubs, grew a population of 800, what’s more, in the daytime and at night, deep in the mountain and forest, a group of female ‘tiger raisers’ stay with these fierce giant cats. They are tender but brave to be with these tigers and love them like their own babies. 东北虎的故乡｜中国完达山脉虎峰

山脚下，辟有世界最大的东北虎野化繁育基地，约有800余只威风凛凛,重拾野性的东北虎。这里依山傍水，夏季林森草茂,冬季冰清雪洁。令人惊奇的是，仅仅23年时间，由最初的8只繁育壮大如此规模的种群。而在这密林深处与猛虎日夜相伴的竟是几代温柔漂亮的女性为主的育虎团队。

On the eve of the Year of the Tiger, with a set of photographic equipment, I went there yet again. Each year, from Dec to Feb is the mating peak time, in the wild snow-covered forest, tiger couples keep ‘skin to skin’ can always seen. Every second season is the time to give birth. One time a record breaking 6 new-born tiger cubs came in one farrow.

虎年前夕，我带着成套的摄影器材再次来到这儿。每年12月至翌年的2月是东北虎喜结连理的旺季，茫茫雪野里可见耳鬓厮磨的虎情侣。每年第二季是东北虎生产旺季，曾创下一胎成活6只的世界纪录，成功优化交配,助产,母狗代哺等都是她们这些虎妈妈创下的世界养虎之最。

Striving to take a close shot of these

tigers, a huge hunting cat is inevitable. Our car had to travel fast, or it will be tackled or stopped off by the tigers. With no food left, we took our shots and left…

When leaving, we shook the hands of those brave ladies; I felt that their hands were rough. Had I not I experienced this myself, I would never

have believed that these gentle beauties could be such fierce beasts. 我们乘坐的工作车

必须行使很快，不能停顿，否则将被猛虎拦劫；刚停稳就会有猛虎上来使劲嗑咬车胎，锋利强劲的牙齿咬破轮胎撒气后，群虎上来后果可怕。一只2岁成年雄虎竟然横卧车前，若不“留下买路钱”（投下一块鲜牛肉）绝不放行。有的大王会一跃跳上车棚顶上同乘便车；趾高气扬,虎虎生气的尊容令人又惊又喜。

As we departed you could here a great roar from the tigers. Maybe they were saying goodbye… 结束拍摄,握手道别，养虎女郎那

粗糙手掌与温柔的表情形成强烈反差，远山中又传来了声声虎啸。 |AT|

Tiger


37

They are tender but brave to be with these tigers and love them like their own babies

In 1998, AustrAlIA hAd A mere 6 mega-watt (MW) installed capacity of wind power. Ten years later (by the end of 2008), that figure had climbed to 1.3 giga-watt (GW). The pace of new wind farm developments continues to gather momentum. In the six months to October 2009, three out of the seven new electricity generation projects completed in Australia were wind-powered.

1998年澳洲的風電裝機容量僅有6兆瓦

(MW)，十年後（2008年末）已猛增到1.3千

兆瓦(GW)。風電場建設如火如荼，2009年

10月之前的六個月，全國竣工新發電項目

七個，其中有三個是風力發電。

Moving forward, of the nine renewable electricity generation projects, listed by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) in October 2009, at an advanced stage of development, eight were wind-powered. These eight projects are expected to be operational in 2011 and will account for 84 percent of new renewable energy capacity addition in the country. 2009年10月澳洲農業與資源經濟局

(ABARE)列出九個處於高級發展階段的可再

生發電項目，其中風力發電佔了八個。這

八個項目將於2011年投產，屆時將佔全國

新增可再生能源裝機容量的84%。

Looking even further ahead, of the total number of projects in October 2009 at a less advanced stage (undergoing feasibility or pre-feasibility studies, or without a definite development decision), 71 of the 80 renewable energy projects are wind-powered. Admittedly, not all of these will eventually become operational projects, but the momentum is clearly with the wind sector.而在2009年10月公佈的所有處於非高級

階段（正在進行可行性研究或者預可行性

研究，或者尚未決定開發）的80個可再生

能源項目中，有71個同樣是風力發電。誠

然，這些項目未必都能化為現實，但風力

發電的勢頭不容置疑。

Underpinning most renewable energy project investments is the Australian Government’s expanded Renewable Energy Target (RET) scheme of August 2009 that has a renewable energy target of 45,000 gigawatt-hours (Gwh) – or 20 percent of total requirement – by 2020. Through this framework, wholesale purchasers of electricity are legally obliged to contribute toward the generation of

additional renewable electricity through the purchase of Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) which are tradable.2009年8月澳洲政府出台擴大後的可再生

能源目標(RET)計劃，決心在2020年之前，

實現45,000千兆瓦時(Gwh)的可再生能源目

標，滿足總需求量的20%。此舉給絕大多數

的可再生能源項目投資奠定基礎。在此框

架下，批量購電的用戶須承擔法定義務，

通過購買可交易的「可再生能源證書」

(REC)為可再生能源發電出資。

The competitive advantage for wind rests in its relative cost competitiveness (at utility-scale capacities) versus other mature technologies such as solar. In addition, Australia has excellent wind resources, with higher average wind speeds than even some of the much larger wind-powered markets globally. 與其他成熟技術如太陽能相比，風能的

優勢在於成本低廉（假如發電量能達到公

用事業級）。澳洲有豐富的風力資源，其

平均風速甚至高過一些風力發電規模大得

多的國家。

Unlike the small, pilot-scale projects of the past, there is a marked trend toward larger capacities per wind farm. For example, the planned Silverton Wind Farm in New South Wales is targeting a capacity of 1,000 MW, which will make

FEBRUARY 2010

38 Economy


作者/By Ivan Fernandez

it the largest in the country and in the Southern hemisphere. No wonder then that some forecasts place total installed wind capacity at around 11 GW in 2020, assuming complete implementation of the expanded RET.有別於過去的小規模試驗項目，現在風

電場的裝機容量越來越大，像新南威爾士

州籌建的Silverton風電場，目標發電量達

1,000兆瓦，它將成為澳洲乃至南半球最大

的風電場。據預測，假如擴大後的可再生

能源目標實現的話，到2020年風力發電總

裝機容量將達到11千兆瓦。

However, even with about 50 operating wind farms in the country currently and with many more in-progress and upcoming wind energy projects, there exist fundamental challenges beyond the projects themselves. These are discussed below:目前國內大概有50家投入運營的風電

場，還有不少在建和即將開建的風能項

目，然而除了項目本身之外，仍存在一些

根本性的挑戰。下文就此展開討論：

Impact on the Electricity Market對電力市場的影響

Intermittency of wind supply is likely to become a grid challenge as wind capacity increases (an individual wind generator could see as much as a 50 percent variation in output in a five-minute electricity market dispatch interval). Volatility in the grid – due to increasing renewable energy generation – means that new power plants need to be flexible, highly efficient and able to start and stop in very short periods of time on a daily basis in order to cope with grid irregularities. 隨著風力發電容量的增加，風力供電的

間歇性對電網構成挑戰（在一個為期五分

鐘的電力市場調度間隔時段內，一台風力

發電機的發電量波動幅度最高可達50%）。

因為可再生能源發電越來越多，為避免電

網波動，新的發電廠需要靈活高效，日常

運營中能在極短時間內開機和停機，以應

對電網異常。

To help manage this issue better, the Australian Wind Energy Forecasting System (AWEFS) was implemented in November 2008 (phase 1) and released for the national electricity market (NEM) (the NEM is the wholesale pool where electricity demand is matched to generator supply in real time through

a central dispatch for NSW, Victoria, Queensland, ACT, South Australia and Tasmania). This is a centralized system that will provide predictions of wind energy generation compatible with the management systems of the NEM operator, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Using weather forecasts from meteorological bureaux and operational data from wind energy generators (such as site wind speed and direction, turbine availability and output), the AWEFS is producing forecasts of expected wind energy generation (for all NEM wind farms (>= 30MW) in the dispatch).

為更好地處理這一問題，2008年11月「

澳洲風能預測系統」(AWEFS) （第一階

段）投入全國電力市場(NEM)運營（NEM相

當於一個電力批發集散地，通過覆蓋新南

威爾士州,維多利亞州,昆士蘭州,堪培拉,

南澳大利亞州,塔斯馬尼亞州的中央調度，

把電力供應與需求實時匹配）。這個中央

系統可提供風能發電的預測，跟NEM運營

者「澳洲能源市場運營機構」（AEMO）的

管理系統保持一致。根據氣象局的天氣預

報，以及風力發電商提供的運營數據（如

現場風速及風向,渦輪機可用性及發電量）

，AWEFS就能預測出所需的風力發電量（涵

蓋調度範圍內的所有NEM風電場(30兆瓦或

以上)）。

This forecasting system has helped allow wind farms to become active participants in the NEM through a new generator classification introduced in March 2009. The National Electricity Amendment (Central Dispatch and Integration of Wind and Other Intermittent Generation):在這個預測系統的幫助下，通過2009年3

月引入一個新的發電商分類制度，風力發

電場成為NEM的積極參與者。《國家電力法

修正案（風力及其他間歇發電的中央調度

與整合）》：

• “require new intermittent generators to register under the new classification of Semi-Scheduled Generator”;

•「要求新的間歇發電商在新的半計劃內發

電商類別下註冊」

• “require Semi-Scheduled Generators to participate in the central dispatch process, including submitting offers and limiting their output to below a dispatch level whenever the generation is limited by the central dispatch process” (required to limit output of wind generation at times when it would otherwise violate network capability).

•「要求半計劃內發電商加入中央調度的

過程中，包括提供報價，以及在中央調

度過程限制發電量的時候，把自身發電

量抑制到調節水平之下」（當風力發電

有可能超出電網容量時必須限制風力發

電量）

(“A generating unit which has a nameplate rating of 30 MW or greater or is part of a group of generating units connected at a common connection point with a combined nameplate rating of 30 MW or greater, must be classified as a semi-scheduled generating unit where the output of the generating unit is intermittent.”) In the past, wind farms were treated as non-scheduled i.e. dispatch and network access priority were given to wind farms over scheduled generators.（「一台發電機組的銘牌額定值為30兆瓦

或更高，或者隸屬於一組發電機組，而這些

機組共用一個接點且合併銘牌額定值為30兆

瓦或更高，並且這台發電機組是間歇發電

的，則該機組將被列為半計劃內發電機組」

）。過去，風電場一直被視作非計劃內，也

就是說，跟計劃內發電商相比，風電場在調

度和電網接入上被給予更多照顧。


Economy 39

Australia has excellent wind resources, with higher average wind speeds than even some of the much larger wind-powered markets globally.

In Western Australia, the Wholesale Electricity Market (WEM) Rules classify wind as “a non-scheduled generator that cannot be scheduled because its output level is dependent on factors beyond the control of its operator.”

Market Mechanisms市場機制

Significantly, the REC spot price has witnessed substantial decline in 2009 (from over A$50 to under A$30). This has been attributed to several factors including a short-term oversupply of RECs on account of public eligibility to obtain RECs for solar hot water system purchases and the uncertainty regarding the nature and impact of the Government’s proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. 值得注意的是，2009年可再生能源證書的

現貨價格經歷了暴跌（從50多澳元跌到30澳

元以下），原因可歸結為幾個因素，包括可

再生能源證書短期供應過剩（這與向公眾放

開資格領取可再生能源證書以購買太陽能熱

水裝置有關）,氣候變化莫測，還有政府提

出的「碳污染減排計劃」的影響。

One of the main consequences of a weakened REC price has been the increased difficulty for pre-construction renewable energy projects in securing long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with electricity retailers and in obtaining finance for capital works. 可再生能源證書價格下跌的主要後果是

增加了擬建的可再生能源項目的困難，使

其難以跟電力零售商達成長期的購電協議

（PPA），也難以為資本工程獲取融資。

It is expected that the expanded RET target (12,500 GWh in 2010, up from 8,100 GWh in 2009) will see increased demand for RECs in 2010 and consequently better price levels. In addition, to investigate the REC market and its short and long term impacts on new project development, the Council Of Australian Governments (COAG) will review the REC spot market shortly.隨著擴大後的可再生能源目標的出台（

從2009年的8,100兆瓦時，增加到2010年

的12,500兆瓦時），2010 年可再生能源證

書的需求可望增加，其價格也有望水漲船

高。此外，為了調查可再生能源證書市場

及其對新項目開發的短期和長期影響，澳

洲政府委員會(COAG)也即將對可再生能源

證書的現貨市場展開審查。

Technology and Standards技術及標準

With the increase in intermittent generation, performance demands are expected to rise for the country’s grid management technologies. In recognition of this challenge, in November 2009, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) opened a new research centre – ‘The Renewable Energy Integration Facility’, which aims to develop new grid management technologies to allow better integration of renewable energy resources into electricity networks.

隨著間歇式發電的增長，國家電網的管

理技術也要有更好的性能。意識到這個挑

戰，2009年11月，聯邦科學與工業研究組

織(CSIRO)設立了一個新的研究中心―「可

再生能源一體化設施」，意在開發新的電

網管理技術，讓可再生能源資源更好地融

入整個電網。

In addition, with so many wind towers dotting the landscape in proximity to varying population densities, the need to standardize wind farm development is being felt. Towards this end, the Environment Protection and Heritage Standing Committee, comprising the CEOs of Federal, State and Territory environmental agencies, has released draft ‘National Wind Farm Development Guidelines’ for public consultation.由於許多風機分佈在接近不同人口密度

的地帶，所以風電場的開發需要有統一標

準。為此，由來自聯邦,各州和領地的環境

部門的首長們組成的「環境和遺產保護委

員會」，發佈了「國家風力發電場開發指

引」草案，向公眾徵求意見。

To help improve network reliability in the face of growing intermittent demand, smart grid technology is being viewed as

a key solution to monitoring electricity supply and managing peak demand. The Australian Government has committed up to A$100 million to develop the ‘Smart Grid, Smart City’ demonstration project in partnership with industry. Also, the Victorian Government’s Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) program plans to rollout 2.5 million smart meters in the state by 2013.面對間歇性需求的增長，為了加強電網

的可靠性，智能電網技術應運而生。它是

一個監測電力供應和管理峰值需求的重

要解決方案。澳洲政府已承諾投入一億澳

元，與業界合作開發「智能電網，智能城

市」的示範項目。而維多利亞州政府也出

台「先進電錶基礎設施」計劃(AMI)，準備

在2013年之前安裝250萬台智能電錶。

Conclusion結語

With the dubious distinction of being the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases per capita amongst developed countries, Australia is increasingly looking to wind farms to help lead the change in the electricity-generation-mix away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy. However, apart from the focus on the wind farm projects themselves, a holistic and proactive approach to managing the impact of new wind capacity on the electricity market, establishing supportive market mechanisms and implementing smart infrastructure technology and standards will be crucial to making it all work. 澳洲在發達國家中人均溫室氣體排放量

最大，因此飽受非議，這促使澳洲更加重

視風電場，以求在從化石燃料到可再生能

源的混合發電變革中走在前列。其實除了

關注風電場項目本身，還應該採取一套全

盤的,主動的方法來管理新增風力發電容

量給電力市場造成的影響，建立有益的市

場機制，並且大力推行智能基建技術和標

準，這樣才能把工作真正做好。|AT|

This article was authored by Ivan Fernandez, Industry Director, Industrial Practice, Frost & Sullivan Australia & New Zealand本文作者：Ivan Fernandez（Frost &

Sullivan Australia & New Zealand工業

實踐部門的工業主管）


Economy40


Economy 41

For more than 20 years, Australia has done little wrong in the eyes of Asia’s emerging middle class. Asian politicians wanted to shake hands, its business people wanted to network, and its parents wanted to send their children to Australian schools and universities. 在亞洲的新興中產階級看來，二十多年

中澳洲的表現幾乎算得上完美。亞洲政治

家期望建立友好關係，商界人士想要編織

關係網絡，父母們則希望送孩子就讀澳洲

中學及大學。

Australia, friendly to America and western Europe, and openly reaching out to embrace its Asian “neighbours”, basked in warmth and approbation from points north, and reaped the rewards.澳洲與美國和西歐交好，與亞洲「鄰

國」言歡，沐浴在一派和睦之中，深得北

半球各國稱許，從中亦收穫頗多。

Not any more.昔日不再。

One of the more important industries in Australia for several decades has been education. From the wealthy and aspiring families of Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan, from the growing wealth of China and India, and from the new wealth of Malaysia, Indonesia and other ASEAN members, secondary school and university age students flocked to Australia. 幾十年來，教育一直是澳洲重要產業。

不論是有「亞洲小龍」之稱的香港,新加坡

和台灣，財富日益增加的中國和印度，還

是新貴不斷湧現的馬來西亞,印尼及其他東

盟成員國，望子成龍的富裕家庭紛紛將孩

子送往澳洲就讀中學及大學。

Education is Australia’s third-largest source of overseas earnings, generating A$15.5 billion in 2008 and supporting

more than 125,000 jobs. While Oxford and Harvard may still have been an absolute first choice, Australia generally was rated the equal of any in providing a first-world education.教育是澳洲第三大海外盈利來源，2008

年創收155億澳元，支撐逾12.5萬個工作崗

位。儘管牛津和哈佛或許依然是絕對的首

選，但澳洲的教育普遍達世界一流水準，

毫不輸於前者。


Economy42

Indian students make up the second-largest group after Chinese of international students undertaking secondary or tertiary education in Australia.

University of Western Australia

度增長（2004年為3萬人，2009年為9.7萬

人）。今年，墨爾本和阿德萊德的印度留

學生分別達4.5萬人和3.2萬人，是印度學

生人數最多的澳洲城市。

They come to Australia because of reputation and because of cost. A Bachelors degree costs A$10,000-16,500 a year and a Masters degree A$11,000-18,500 a year. A graduate diploma costs A$9,000-16,000 a year.

Not any more.昔日不再。

Australia was seen to have all the advantages of the US, the UK and Canada, but it was closer, both in miles and time zone, it was trying hard to identify itself more with Asia, and it was a multicultural country proud of its record of tolerance and acceptance.人們認為，澳洲具備美國,英國和加拿

大的一切優勢，同時就里程和時區而言距

離更近，而且澳洲極力標榜自己的亞洲身

份，宣稱擁有多元文化，以兼容並包的優

良傳統為豪。

Not any more. And especially not as far as India is concerned.昔日不再。對於印度留學生而言尤其

如此。

Indian students make up the second-largest group after Chinese of international students undertaking secondary or tertiary education in Australia, and the numbers have been growing at almost 40 per cent a year (there were 30,000 in 2004, and 97,000 in 2009). Melbourne with 45,000 this year, and Adelaide, with 32,000, are the dominant providers.在澳洲接受中學或高等教育的海外留學

生中，印度留學生人數僅次於中國，居第

二位，而且該數字一直以每年接近40%的速

他們之所以選擇在澳洲接受教育，原因

有二：一是聲譽，二是費用。學士學位費

用為每年1萬-1.65萬澳元，碩士學位為每

年1.1萬-1.85萬澳元。深造文憑費用為每

年9千至1.6萬澳元。

The big difference is not so much the annual fee but the course structure: most Australian degrees are three-year programs, unlike the four years common in the US. An Australian PhD degree can be completed in three years, compared with four years in the US. 每年學費上的差異並不大，主要差別在

於課程結構不同：澳洲大多數學位課程為

三年，而美國通常為四年。在澳洲，三年

即可修完博士學位，而美國則需四年。

The international students are allowed, according to the terms of their student visas, to work in Australia. And that work for many thousands of them is driving taxis. Catch a cab in Melbourne and the chances are strong that your driver will be an Indian doing a university course. 根據學生簽證條款，海外留學生可以在

澳洲打工。有成千上萬的學生選擇開的士

賺取學費。當你在墨爾本打的時，司機很

有可能是正就讀某大學的印度留學生。

Driving taxis is a fraught business at the best of times, but a series of incidents in Melbourne recently have resulted in mass protests, mass recriminations and mass indigation on the front pages of newspapers across India.在情況不佳的時候，駕駛的士充滿危

險。墨爾本近期發生一連串事件，令印度

全國上下群情激奮，各地報紙刊登頭版文

章，表示抗議，宣洩憤怒。

The incidents have involved violent attacks against Indian students. Random violence will happen in any big city, but there was a growing sense of concern that, as international student numbers grew, they became an increasingly obvious and vulnerbale target.在這些事件中，印度

留學生遭到暴力襲擊。

隨機性的暴力事件在任

何城市都可能發生，但讓

人日益擔憂的是，隨著海

外留學生人數不斷增多，

留學生已成為暴力襲擊的

明顯目標。

Then, in April 2008, matters were brought to a crisis point.


Economy 43

Whether it is enough to restore Australia’s reputation, and save its huge international student education industry, remains to be seen.

A 45-year-old Australian named Parrish Charles hailed a cab in Melbourne. The driver was a 23-year-old student named Jalvinder Singh. In what was later described in courst as a “random, unprovoked and frenzied” attack, Charles stabbed Singh five times from behind with a hunting knife hidden in his trousers.2008年4月，事態愈演愈烈，演變成了危

機。45歲的澳洲男子Parrish Charles在

墨爾本乘上23歲的留學生Jalvinder Singh

駕駛的的士，隨後用藏在褲子中的獵刀從

後方朝Singh猛刺五刀，這一行為後來在法

庭上被稱為「隨機,無正當理由的瘋狂」

襲擊。

Jalvinder Singh somehow escaped, crawling from the cab before collapsing, bleeding, in a gutter where he was found several hours later by a passing truck driver and taken to hospital. A surgeon later said it was a miracle that he survived. Charles drove away with the taxi, which he crashed nearby, leading to his arrest. Jalvinder Singh設法逃生，從的士中爬

了出來，方倖免於難。他鮮血淋漓地倒在路

邊一個排水溝中。數小時後，一名路過的卡

車司機發現後將其送往醫院。一名外科醫生

事後表示，他的生還堪稱奇跡。Charles駕

駛的士逃離現場，後在附近地區撞車被捕。

The attack was seen as a last straw by Indian taxi drivers in Melbourne, and they protested angrily and loudly, blockading a major city intersection for 22 hours. They demanded that the attack be seen not as a one-off piece of mindless violence, but as evidence of an ongoing problem. They demanded action.墨爾本印籍的士司機將該襲擊事件看作

最後的稻草，他們憤怒地高聲抗議，封鎖

該市一個主要十字路口達22小時之久。他

們提出，該襲擊絕非一次性的盲目暴力事

件，而是該市長期存在問題的明證。他們

要求政府採取行動。

They got it. In a rapid response to the demands of taxi drivers, the Victorian government agreed to safety screens in cabs for drivers who wanted them, and mandatory pre-payment of fares at night. In September this year Victorian Premier John Brumby visited India with the sole purpose of addressing the violence and discrimination issues which were receiving prominent coverage in Indian media. On November 9 the

Australian government introduced new visa measures to assist overseas students. On November 12 the Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd visited India, where he said he was “disgusted” by the recent attacks on Indian students in his country and “accepts responsibility”.他們如願以償。維多利亞州政府迅速做

出回應，同意為有需要的的士司機安裝安

全隔板，並強制要求夜間乘車者預先支

付車費。今年9月，維多利亞州州長John

Brumby訪問印度，唯一目的就是解決印度

媒體突出報道的暴力事件和種族歧視問

題。11月9日，澳洲政府出台為海外留學生

提供支援的新簽證方案。11月12日，澳洲

總理陸克文訪問印度，期間表示對該國近

期發生的襲擊印度留學生的事件感到「憎

惡」並「承擔責任」。

On November 13 Parrish Charles was sentended to nine and a half years imprisonment for the knife attack on Jalvinder Singh. It will be small compensation for Mr Singh, who will bear the mental scars for the rest of his life.11月13日，Parrish Charles因用刀襲

擊Jalvinder Singh而被處以九年半監

禁。對於餘生都將承受心靈傷害的Singh

先生而言，這樣的補償微不足道。

And whether it is enough to restore Australia’s reputation, and save its huge international student education industry, remains to be seen.此舉是否足以挽回澳洲的聲譽，挽救

其巨大的海外留學生教育產業，仍有待

觀察。 |AT|

At long lAst, it’s beginning tolook as though the deep international recession of the last 18 months might be starting to recede. The United States is hoping to turn last year’s 2.5% shrinkage of GDP into a growth of maybe 2.8% in 2010. Japan’s 5.3% decline in 2009 is forecast to go positive by 1.5%. And China looks set for another storming year, with growth set to top 8.5% once again. With overall Asian growth being variously estimated at between 2.9% and 3.5% in 2010, everyone agrees that Asia is the place to be.

歷經18個月，席捲全球的大衰退終於開始退潮。繼去年萎縮2.5%之後，2010年

美國經濟有望增長2.8%。日本經濟2009年

下降5.3%，預計今年回升1.5%。今年對中

國來說又將是豐收的一年，經濟再增8.5%

可期。估計2010年整個亞洲的增長率在

2.9%至3.5%之間，個中機遇不言而喻。

In theory, then, Korea ought to be well placed to benefit from a global resurgence of investor sentiment. With its well-educated and versatile population, its economic growth projections running at a healthy 3% in 2010, its assertive government and its current account surplus running at nearly 3% of GDP, Korea’s businesses should be finding the going relatively easy. But oddly, new money is proving strangely hard to attract - particularly when you consider the vast sums that are going into China. And there’s an awareness that Korea can’t move to the next level without more money from abroad. That’s why we’re currently seeing a major push by the Korean authorities to improve the country’s investor appeal. And, to their great credit, the country’s leaders haven’t tried to duck the difficult issues that have made the foreigners wary up till now.按理說，韓國本該是全球投資者信心復

甦的受益者，其國民教育水準高，各行各

業人才濟濟， 2010年經濟增長可望達到3%

的健康水平，政府作風硬朗，經常項目順

差幾近GDP的3%，這些都給韓國企業創造

了良好的發展條件，但奇怪的是投資者卻

對此無動於衷。眼看大把資金源源不斷流

向中國，真叫人心裏不是滋味。離開外國

投資，韓國想要更上一層樓談何容易，這

就是為什麼韓國政府不遺餘力提升本國對

投資者的吸引力，而國家領導人也言而有

FEBRUARY 2010

44 Economy


作者/By Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas

信，敢於直面那些困擾外國投資者至今的

棘手問題。

The Size of the Challenge艱巨的挑戰

Before we go any further, let’s stop and look at the figures. The Finance Ministry in Seoul reported last month that the total volume of new foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2009 had amounted to $11.5 billion - a 1.9% decline against the total for 2008. Now that doesn’t sound too bad until we also consider that 2008 itself was a truly disastrous year. According to the Bank of Korea, the total outstanding volume of FDI in 2008 fell by a horrific 30.1% from 2007 levels, to just $85.3 billion. And it wasn’t just FDI that was feeling the pressure. The overall outstanding balance on all kinds of foreign holdings (including portfolio holdings) dropped by 27.5% from $826 billion in 2007 to just $602 billion. The worst declines in 2008 came from the US, whose portfolio investments had declined by a massive 56% as US investors repatriated their savings to meet their debt obligations back home.細談之前，我們先來看幾組數據。首爾

財政部上月報告顯示，2009年新增外國直

接投資115億美元，比2008年減少1.9%。

能在大災大難的2008年取得如此成績已然

不易。根據韓國央行的數據，2008年外國

直接投資已完成投資額853億美元，相比

2007年驟減30.1%。感受到壓力的不單是

外國直接投資，事實上，外國投資者持有

各類資產（包括證券投資組合）的未清餘

額總共下降了27.5%，從2007年的8,260億

美元跌至6,020億美元，其中美國投資者

是2008年的重災區，其所持有的投資組合

縮水多達56%，原因是他們撤資套現拿回

國內還債。

It wasn’t any different last year. We won’t have the final 2009 breakdowns for portfolio investment for another few weeks, but we do already have the detailed

figures for FDI itself, and they’re pretty disappointing. That $11.5 billion figure for new FDI in 2009 included just $1.49 billion from America, a fall of 12%. Japan invested just $1.93 billion in Korean companies, and although Western Europe accounted for a much more substantial $5.3 billion of new money, it was still 16.4% down on 2008. Britain was the country’s biggest FDI investor, providing $1.95 billion, and the Netherlands supplied another $1.9 billion of new money.去年絲毫不見起色。雖然2009財年的證

券組合投資細節還要等幾週才出爐，但從

已有的外國直接投資數據來看，結果令人

相當失望。2009年新增外國直接投資115

億美元，其中美國僅佔14.9億美元，減少

12%。日本對韓國公司的投資只有19.3億美

元。來自西歐的投資有53億美元，雖然不

少，但相比2008年仍下降16.4%。英國是韓

國最大的外國直接投資者，投資額為19.5

億美元；隨後是荷蘭，投資19億美元。

Why the reluctance? Partly, the government says, it’s because of the weakness of the Won, which has lost 20% of its value against the dollar during the last two years, although it’s been fighting back recently. And partly it’s simply that this is a bad time to be looking for new investment capital. But Seoul also concedes that there have been structural weaknesses in the way that it behaves toward foreign

investment capital - some of it caused by past policy decisions, and some of it simply cultural. All of it needs to be urgently reviewed.投資者為何裹足不前？首先是近兩年韓

元疲弱不振，兌美元貶值20%，直到最近

才開始反彈，這是官方的解釋。再說那時

也的確不是投資的好時機。不過首爾亦

坦承，其在結構上確實有缺陷暴露在外國

投資資本面前 — 有的是過往政府決策

所致，有的純粹是文化上的碰撞。無論如

何，這些都亟需檢討。


Economy 45

Britain was the country’s biggest FDI investor, providing accounting $1.95 billion, and the Netherlands supplied another $1.9 billion of new money.

A Bold Response from the Government…政府大力改革

Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-Hyun has not tried to shirk his government’s responsibility. Speaking to the European Chamber of Commerce recently, Mr

Yoon announced that his government was bringing in much-needed structural reforms that would improve competitiveness, stimulate investment and create a more business-friendly environment for foreigners. Among the measures Mr Yoon outlined at the meeting were: (i) a speeded-up programme for privatising 24 public institutions (and thus to raise much-needed revenues); (ii) a full exemption from rents for certain manufacturers operating in the country’s foreign investment zones; and (iii) the easing of the regulations that currently restrict foreign access to core fields such as health care and education. 在財政部長尹增鉉看來，解決這些問

題，政府義不容辭。近日對歐洲商會講話

時，尹部長表示，韓國政府正在推行迫切

需要的體制改革，旨在提高競爭力，刺激

投資，為國外投資者創造一個更優越的營

商環境。席間尹部長提到幾個措施：(i)

加快24個公辦機構的私有化進程（從而

提高經營業績）；(ii) 完全免除在韓國

的外商投資區運營的指定企業的租金；及

(iii) 放鬆對外資進入教育,醫療等核心行

業部門的管制。

There’s more. Recently the government has promised to open up the tourism sector to foreigners, specifically by creating a number of new theme parks and other leisure facilities throughout the country, and to cut rents for certain tourism projects by up to 30%. It has also been easing the regulation of Korea’s entertainment industry: a recent resolution from the country’s communications regulator has opened up the way for majority-owned foreign subsidiaries to provide content for internet TV services, something they were not previously allowed to do.此外，韓國政府最近承諾向外商開放旅

遊業，鼓勵其在全國各地投資興建主題公

園和其他娛樂休閒設施，並減免若干旅遊

項目的租金，最高減租30%。政府亦放鬆了

對娛樂業的規管：韓國的通訊監管部門近


Economy46

Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-Hyun has not tried to shirk his government’s responsibility. Speaking to the European Chamber of Commerce

Finance Minister Yoon Jeung-Hyun


Economy 47

labour relations front. Many foreign companies are battling with ferociously strong trade unions, and the government is fighting back by introducing reforms which will dilute their power - partly by changing their leadership structures, partly by limiting union powers for short-term workers, and partly by abolishing union monopolies in certain industries. 在韓國，外國投資者深受勞資關係問題

困擾，強勢的工會跟許多外企都是劍拔弩

張。為此，政府正引入改革來削弱工會的

勢力，比如改變工會的領導體制，比如約

束臨時工人的工會權力，再比如根除某些

行業的工會壟斷現象。

Still, nobody is underestimating the potential for public conflict in the coming months over these critical issues. And, at a time when Seoul’s own political scene is preparing for tightly-fought local elections in June, it wouldn’t be surprising if those plans were placed on hold. We’ll see.不過，任何人都不能低估未來數月這些

重大問題釀成公開衝突的可能性。況且到

了六月份，首爾的政治舞台就要上演激烈

的地方選戰，說不定這些計劃都有可能束

之高閣。讓我們拭目以待。|AT|

Another success has come for the US retailer Toys R Us, which is working through a partnership with the Korean retail chain Lotte Shopping.

日決議，允許外資控股企業提供互聯網電

視內容服務，這在以前可是禁區。

The government’s reasoning here isn’t hard to understand. Culture, retailing and tourism are all seen as easy ways to improve consumer spending and pull in foreign currency. But that’s not to say that foreign investors won’t need to make some concessions to Korea’s special cultural sensitivities if they want to succeed.政府的苦心不難理解，因為文化,零售和

旅遊皆是刺激消費和吸引外資的捷徑。與

此同時，外國投資者亦應尊重韓國的傳統

文化，這樣才能互利共贏。

One organisation that failed to adapt was the French supermarket group Carrefour, which pulled out of the country in 2006 after complaining that its essentially European business culture had been stymied by local stubbornness and bureaucracy. But its British rival Tesco has managed to flourish by adopting a much more consciously Korean culture, and the company is now going from

strength to financial strength. Another success has come for the US retailer Toys R Us, which is working through a partnership with the Korean retail chain Lotte Shopping. Clearly, then, there is much that the foreigners can do to make the best of the cultural situation they find in Korea. It’s a two-way street.法國的家樂福超市集團，即是在韓國遭

遇水土不服的例子。因為抱怨其根深蒂固

的歐洲企業文化不堪忍受當地的官僚習氣

和刻板作風，家樂福於2006年黯然撤出韓

國。相比之下，家樂福的競爭對手英國樂

購集團卻是如魚得水，因為它能有意識地

適應韓國的文化，經營業績自然節節高。

來自美國的零售商玩具反鬥城亦是成功的

典範，其與韓國零售連鎖店樂天百貨攜手

合作，巧妙打入韓國市場。顯然，在韓國

的文化面前，外國投資者其實大有可為，

焉知禍兮福兮。

...But Labour Issues Are Still Tricky勞工問題仍需智慧

Foreign investors will, however, be looking for more help on the troubled

In ChIna there are more than 160 cities that boast over a million residents, whereas in the USA there are less than 30. Beijing may be the capital city and the seat of government, but Shanghai is the number one mega city, and shines as the pinnacle of communist capitalism. It has had a long history of trade and contact with the rest of the world, and with its strategic position on the coast of the Pacific Ocean it is at the heart of modern China.

在中國有一百六十多座百萬人口的大城市，

而美國還不到三十個。北京是中國的首度，

也是中央政府所在地，但若論中國的頭號大

都市，當屬閃耀在共產資本主義光環下的上

海。上海有著悠久的商業歷史，自古以來就

與世界有著緊密聯繫，她扼守東出太平洋的

門戶，是現代中國的心臟。

In mid winter a piercing Mongolian wind can add a penetrating chill to the night air, and create a rippled surface on the grand old river that divides the old and the ultra-modern city of Shanghai. On the one side stands a host of riverside classic old European buildings, built to last, and well occupied in the district called The Bund. The grand days of the trading British laid

The Greatest Show on Earth -Shanghai in the Spotlight 風從海上來 – 上海世博倒計時

down this foreign enclave, enriched by the French suburb, where even today a log fire can warm the gills as a Filipina waitress serves a tray of red wine, in a Parisian-style bar-cum-café. The place sits in a quiet street, and the ambiance is as French as you like. Further downstream, and a little inland, the old China hums in an area still rich in the homely village-like atmosphere of an imperial past. Shops galore implore the trader-in-everyone to bargain the find of a life time, amongst the plethora of handicrafts, jade pieces of varied colours, an endless array of textiles and soft silk

FEBRUARY 2010

48 Economy


items, and a whole range of glitch and kitsch and modern bits and bobs.隆冬季節，來自蒙古高原的凜冽寒風給

上海的夜晚平添寒意，古老的黃浦江水穿

城而過，把大上海分為新舊兩城。黃浦

江畔的外灘，歐式建築比肩而立，曆久

彌新，仿佛訴說著當年英法租界的繁華

歲月。今時今日，坐在巴黎風情的小餐

館裏，殷勤的菲傭獻上紅酒，壁爐裏火焰

正旺，叫人心裏暖意融融，外面的街道寧

靜安逸，讓你感覺恍若身在法國。沿江而

下，深入腹地，一如舊日的田園風光歷歷

在目。大街上店鋪林立，商品琳琅滿目，

有手工藝品，有珠寶首飾，有綾羅綢緞，

還有那各式各樣的小玩意。

The place to be seen at night is Nanjing Road. A wide long street laid out for pedestrian traffic only, and a night prowler’s delight. If it’s Chinese fare or an American hamburger, a coffee or a green tea, floors of stores or a trendy street shop, then this is definitively the spotlight of activity. Day and night, Nanjing Road hums. It is a photographer’s delight at night, with the bright red and cosy coloured neon signs in glorious Chinese calligraphy adorning the sidewalks. 夜幕低垂，華燈初上，既寬且長的南京

路上人來人往，喜愛夜生活的人定會愛上

這裏，從中餐到漢堡，從綠茶到咖啡，從

大型商場到時尚小店，無不應有盡有。不

管白天還是夜晚，南京路永遠都是人流如

織，熙熙攘攘。夜晚的南京路是攝影家的

樂園，五顏六色的霓虹燈繽紛閃爍，烘托

著古香古色的牌匾，一眼望去美輪美奐。

Modern Life - Modern Living動感之都動感生活

The place to be seen day and night in Shanghai this year throughout May to October is at the World Expo. The dedicated site set both sides of the Huangpu River covers over five square kilometres in all, and is placed in the heart of the city between the two main bridges. They have built brand new underground rail services just to ferry the eager mass of visitors. They are currently keying up the city to handle a modest estimate of 70,000,000 people, which averages out at some 400,000 persons per day. These are staggering figures to the world at large, but in


Economy 49

The place to be seen at night is Nanjing Road. A wide long street laid out for pedestrian traffic only, and a night prowlers delight.

Nanjin Road

The site of the Shanghai World Expo 2010 in Pudong

China it is a mere handful, in a country that has a population of over 1.3 billion. Nevertheless the logistics for a smooth operation during the six months are mega-staggering. The Chinese are up for the challenge of this, the 38th World Expo, on a site 20 times larger than the last Expo in Zaragosa in Spain in 2008.今年五至十月，上海將要舉辦世界博覽

會。會址坐落於黃浦江兩岸，兩座大橋之間

的中心地帶，總面積逾五平方公里。為迎接

八方賓客，上海修建了新的地鐵，預計總客

流量將達七千萬，大約每天有四十萬，這數

字在世界任何地方都足以令人歎為觀止，唯

獨在中國這個擁有十三億人口的國家，卻是

滄海一粟。無論如何，保障這六個月的交通

運輸平穩運行都是一項浩大工程，而且第38

屆世博會的場地規模，也比2008年西班牙薩

拉戈薩的世博會大上二十倍，不過相信中國

人一定能夠應對挑戰。

Shanghai is about to burst onto the World Stage yet again in its 700 year history, as the host of hosts for this brilliant event. 今天，有著七百餘年歷史的上海就要以

世博會東道主的身份再度登上世界舞台。

The classic centuries old European architecture of The Bund alongside the Huangpu River will be bowing and kowtowing to the mega-modern iconic structures of the World Expo pavilions, which will dominate the riverside skyline in Shanghai just downstream from the rest of the mega city. It will be a contrast worth seeing.黃浦江畔，外灘之上，古老的歐式建築

群將向一座座動感十足充滿現代氣息的世

博場館頷首致敬，嶄新的它們將是江畔天

際線新的主宰，新舊交匯，時空穿梭，值

得一看。

Expo Theme “Better City - Better Life”世博會主題：城市，讓生活更美好

The World Expo has come around with good timing, as the modern world has already realised that China is the Future. 當世人公認中國是世界的未來之際，世

博會的到來恰逢其時。

‘Nation branding’ is an important element of the Expo, and 200 countries are expected to showcase themselves, theming around their own contributions to urban life and city living. After all, whether we like it or not, the urban magnet is the biggest draw for people worldwide. How to live best in the city using the expertise of mankind is a fascinating concept, and an intriguing one which will bring in the crowds.「國家形象展示」是世博會的重要元素，

屆時將有兩百多個國家繽紛亮相，緊扣城市

與生活的主題展現自我。畢竟，不論我們喜

歡與否，城市都像一塊巨大的磁石，吸引著

全世界的人們。如何發揮人類的智慧把城市

生活變得更美好，這是一個引人入勝的話

題，其本身就給人帶來無限遐想。


Economy50

the 38th World Expo, on a site 20 times larger than the last Expo in Zaragosa in Spain in 2008.

The Bund

A Shanghaied Population – a city of 20 million and still counting!「阿拉上海人」—一座擁有兩千萬人的現代大都會

If it’s the need and greed of the modern world you are after, then Shanghai is definitively a catalyst. Best cross over the slow flowing river and feel and experience the heart of the modern world. On this, the Pudong side of the river, the iconic architectural eyesore is the Pearl Tower, a dominating pleasant modern monstrosity that shines like a rocket ship at night. The mellow district of The ‘European’ Bund is a million miles removed from this ritzy glitzy reflection of the powerhouse of modern capitalist China, tainted with its own brand of bureaucratic communism. Pudong’s rice fields have been replaced with a jigsaw of fancy newness that reeks of money and the wealth of China, both now and well in to the future. 假如你崇尚現代生活，上海無疑是最好

的選擇。漫步於黃浦江畔，你將體會到這

座現代化大都市的脈動。江東面的浦東

區，上海的標誌性建築東方明珠塔直插雲

霄，在夜幕下光芒萬丈。迷人的外灘，充

滿濃郁的歐洲情調，雖然中國因為官僚作

風的共產主義被人詬病，可是在現代資本

主義中國的經濟之都，到處卻是一片燈紅

酒綠的奢靡之風。當年浦東的萬頃良田，

如今早已舊貌換新顏，這裏聚集著中國的

財富，散發著濃濃的銅臭，現在如此，將

來依舊如此。

After all, it is indeed plain to see that ‘The Age of China’ is upon us. China, and Asia in general, are increasingly shining in the limelight of ‘The New World Order’. 其實只要知道現在是「中國時代」，一

切就都不言而喻。中國，乃至亞洲，正在

崛起為「世界新秩序」的重要一極。

Meanwhile back in Shanghai, the underground train is one option for a


Economy 51

the Pearl Tower, a dominating pleasant modern monstrosity that shines like a rocket ship at night.

ride into modernism. The very short journey under the Huangpu River is curiously pitched at the unsuspecting traveller, as a bizarre Disney-esque experience. The tunnelled entrance flickers and glitters in a fantasy type mirage of twinkling lights, and the few minutes under the water is like a brain shuffle, like some time machine preparing the unsuspecting soul for a glimpse of the future. Pudong will not disappoint, as the pungent smell of money oozes out onto the streets as modern skyscrapers strive for pride of place in the race for power. The newness and boldness of it all is the link to the booming economic race.在上海，地鐵是現代生活的代名詞。短

短一段穿越黃浦江的地鐵之旅，留給旅客

的卻是如同迪士尼童話般的夢幻經歷，只

見隧道入口燈光閃爍，列車風馳電掣穿過

河底，恍如一架時光穿梭機，載著置身於

夢境中的旅客奔向未來。走在浦東街頭，

財富的氣息撲面而來，摩天大樓此起彼

伏，訴說著城市的驕傲，在你追我趕的經

濟賽跑中，大膽與創新就是制勝法寶，相

信浦東必能不負眾望。

These smart central districts are mostly surrounded by mile after mile of high rise residential blocks, like bundles of needles from afar; their greyness houses millions of Chinese cheek-by-jowl in a country filled up with well over one billion people (1,000,000,000).中心城區之外，環繞著一片片高聳的住

宅樓群，仿佛鋼筋水泥築成的灰白森林，

那裏密密麻麻住著成千上萬居民，他們是

這個十億人口大國的縮影。

Down stream on an island in the middle of the mighty Yangtse Kiang, the longest river in China, a modern city is being conjured. Heralded as the ‘cleanest’ city on our planet, taking note of all the mistakes of the past, recognising the dooming effect of pollution, mixing-in with all the tricks of the need to be ‘green and clean’, it is the new vision of a life of human ‘perfection’.沿著中國最長的河流長江順流而下，一

個島嶼正如魔法般變成一座現代都市。她

被譽為地球上「最乾淨」的城市，遠離謬

誤，遠離污染，讓「綠色和清潔」美夢成

真，堪稱一片生活的樂土。

Meanwhile, up stream, modern


Economy52

The tunnelled entrance flickers and glitters in a fantasy type mirage of twinkling lights, and the few minutes under the water is like a brain shuffle, like some time machine preparing the unsuspecting soul for a glimpse at the future.

Shanghai cracks on, and the roads are stacked up with thousands upon thousands of new cars, which are the mark of modern success, the proof of ‘progress’ and machines that magnify pollution.溯流而上，眼前是現代化的大上海，路

上車水馬龍，那是現代化的成功標誌，是

進步的象徵，當然，也是加劇污染的元

兇。

A ride from Shanghai Airport on the MagNav tube train is a rush of pure consciousness. At 240 kilometres an hour, contrived by German technology, the rice fields are all a blur, a brief brush from the past, before the concrete sprawl swallows up the traveller in a blink of an eye. At the end of a visit to Shanghai - this heaving city, this powerhouse - it is somehow a great relief to get back on the MagNav and in eight minutes (that luckiest of Chinese numbers), be whisked out of town, to breathe fresh air again, and relax far from the madding crowd.從上海機場搭乘磁懸浮列

車是很過癮的事。列車採用

德國技術，時速高達240公里，


Economy 53

A ride from Shanghai Airport on the MagNav tube train is a rush of pure consciousness. At 240 kilometres an hour, contrived by German technology, the rice fields are all a blur, a brief brush from the past, before the concrete sprawl swallows up the traveller in a blink of an eye.

還未等乘客眨眼，窗外的片片農田轉瞬即

過，消失在一片模糊之中。當你遊歷完這

座活力四射的大都市，一定要體驗乘坐磁

懸浮的快感，整段旅程只要八分鐘（八是

中國人心中的吉數），就把你帶出喧囂的

都市和熙攘的人群，呼上一口城外清新的

空氣。

Shanghai Dream – Modern Theme上海夢—現代主題

China loves to be in the driving seat, and Shanghai will relish its role as the World Expo host, and gleam in its momentary spotlight. 2010 will allow it to prance meaningfully on the World Stage. 中國已做好駛向未來的準備，上海正要

品嘗舉辦世博會的滋味，萬眾矚目，永垂

史冊，2010年的上海註定是世界舞台的

焦點。

Urban living is definitely all the rage but it has another side that looms in the shadows. All is not bright and shiny, and there is a dark side to life in the city, which in many ways is branded as a necessary evil. Most of the host city live hidden in long tall grey, grisly residential towers that line up for mile after mile after mile, as endless concrete blocks that stand soulless and heartless in the meaningless space of urban culture. 城市生活固然是當今世界的主流，但它

光鮮亮麗的外表之下，也有陰暗一面，也

隱藏著罪惡。城市生活淹沒於高大冰冷無

邊無際的水泥森林之中，一幢幢大樓沒有

靈魂，沒有熱情，孤獨地站在城市文化的

空洞地帶。

This year at least Shanghai can stand tall and proud, and brand China as the heartbeat of modern mankind. 不過，至少今年的上海可以傲然屹立，

向世人宣揚中國是世界的中心。

Shanghai’s World Expo hosting will be the envy of the World while 200 nations will share with them visions of the “Better City” and the blessings of the “Better Life”. 作為世博會的東道主，上海引來世界的

羡慕，屆時將有兩百多個國家參加展會，

詮釋他們對城市與生活的美好理念。

Needless to say, if you can’t physically visit the World Expo you can be there in spirit with the fully interactive hyper-online version of the whole affair. 假如你無法親臨世博會，可以通過互聯

網與這場盛事作個心靈上的互動。

However, if there is a chance to travel, there is no doubt that it is one of those 10,000 things you must do before you die. After the event, the chances are you may well decide to let go of city living, and make a break to live a decent life close to nature, within view of a shooting star, far from the madding crowd, next to a tree, and out in the country. But before you do, put the Shanghai World Expo in your Starbucks diary, and do not miss this… The Greatest Show on Earth. 不過，倘若有機會的話，參觀世博會一

定是你生前必做的一萬件事之一。過後，

也許你會下定決心與城市生活告別，真正

投入大自然的懷抱，看天空繁星點點，遠

離鬧市人群，去過採菊東籬下的田園生

活。但是在此之前，你一定要把上海世博

會寫進星巴克的日記裏…全世界最大的盛

會，千載難逢，萬勿錯過。|AT|

Shangai’s World Expo will be the envy of the World while 200 nations will share with them visions of the “Better City” and the blessings of the “Better Life”.

It Is a foregone conclusIon that Asia will lead the much-awaited global economic recovery in 2010. Among the emerging markets referred to as BRIC and the Next-11, eight of the fifteen economies are in Asia: China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Korea and Vietnam. With China leading them at a forecasted GDP growth rate of 9.5 percent in 2010, Asian economies will average about 7 percent growth for 2010 in contrast with less than 2.0 percent for the developed economies. Except for Japan, the driving force for the stronger recovery in Asian economies is domestic consumption. The much-awaited rebalancing of the global economy is happening: Asians, formerly the highest savers in the world, are now discovering the pleasures of splurging on consumer goods, including discretionary items, while Americans are reacquiring their old virtue of thrift.

早有學者預計，亞洲將於2010年引領全

球經濟走出低谷。在金磚四國及新鑽十一

國等新興市場組織中，十五個經濟體有八

個位於亞洲，分別為：中國,印度,巴基斯

坦,孟加拉,印尼,菲律賓,韓國及越南。其

中中國的 GDP 增長預計在2010年達到9.5

％，繼續保持領先，亞洲經濟體2010年的

平均增長率預計約為7％，發達國家的平均

增長率則不足2％。亞洲國家實現經濟強勢

復甦的主要推動力來自國內消費，但日本

除外。令人期待已久的全球經濟重新平衡

正在形成：亞洲以往是全球最為節儉的地

區，如今正充分享受消費品帶來的愉悅，

而美國人卻重拾節儉傳統。

The emerging markets of Asia passed the test of the Great Recession of 2008-2009. With the exception of South Korea, all of them avoided a recession in 2009 and are in a position to rebound strongly in 2010. Two of them, Indonesia and the Philippines will get a special boost from the establishment of the world’s biggest free trade area (FTA) starting January 1, 2010 on which date Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and China agreed to eliminate barriers to investments and tariffs on 90 percent of products. The other ASEAN members (Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma) will follow suit in 2015. The total consumer market of AFTA+China FTA is 1.7 billion with per capita incomes


Economy 55

作者/by Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas

作者/By Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas

averaging $2,000 to $5,000 annually. This is the range of incomes in which demand for consumer products and services tends to increase at double-digit rates, as experienced in China during the last twenty years.亞洲新興市場成功經受2008－2009年全

球經濟蕭條的考驗。所有新興市場均在

2009年成功避免衰退，並積極實現2010年

的強勢復甦，其中僅韓國除外。印尼及菲

律賓還將透過一項全球最大的自由貿易區

（FTA）協議獲得千載難逢的經濟推動，該

協議自2010年1月1日生效，印尼,馬來西

亞,菲律賓,新加坡,泰國及中國同意消除九

成產品的投資及關稅壁壘。其他東盟成員

國（越南,柬埔寨,老撾及緬甸）將於2015

年加入自由貿易區。中國－東盟自由貿易

區的合計消費市場規模高達17億美元，人

均年收入約為2,000美元至5,000美元。對

於該收入水平，消費品及服務的需求會以

兩位數增長，正如中國在過去二十年經歷

的情況。

Intraregional trade in the AFTA-China region has been expanding at 20 percent annually over the last ten years. China has overtaken the U.S. to become ASEAN’s third largest trading partner. In the next three to five years, China

will surpass Japan and Europe to be the Number One partner. In the AFTA-China FTA, the average tariff rate China will be charging on ASEAN goods will be cut to 0.1 percent from 9.8 percent. Average tariffs imposed on Chinese goods by ASEAN states will fall to 0.6 percent from 12.8 percent. The sectors that will most benefit from this FTA are services, construction, infrastructure and manufacturing.中國－東盟自由貿易區內的跨地區貿易

在過去十年內年均增長達20％。中國已經

超過美國，成為東盟第三大貿易夥伴。

在未來三至五年內，中國將超過日本及歐

洲，成為第一大貿易夥伴。在中國－東盟

自由貿易區，中國對東盟商品徵收的平均

稅率將由9.8％降至0.1％。東盟對中國商

品徵收的平均關稅將由12.8％降至0.6％。

服務業,建築業,基礎設施及製造業將透過

該自由貿易區獲益。

The Asian emerging markets will join the other emerging markets in the world like Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Nigeria, Egypt, Turkey, and Iran in building on their relatively strong performances in the crisis year of 2009. In 2009, the MSCI emerging markets index increased

65 percent, compared with a 25 percent jump in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. Merrill Lynch predicts that emerging market economies in general

will grow 6.3 percent in 2010, while the global economy will expand 4.4 percent. Imports to the BRIC countries were expected to surpass imports to the U.S. for the first time ever in 2009. Even if developed countries recover completely in 2010, emerging markets will account for 70 to 75 percent of the growth in global output in the next three to five years.亞洲的新興市場將與巴西,俄羅斯,墨西

哥,尼日利亞,埃及,土耳其及伊朗等全球其

他新興市場攜手，共同應對2009年金融危

機。2009年，MSCI 新興市場指數增加65

％，標準普爾500指數增加25％。美林證券

（Merrill Lynch）預計，2010年新興市場

的綜合增長將達到6.3％，全球經濟增長為

4.4％。2009年，金磚四國的進口額首次超


Economy56

Imports to the BRIC countries were expected to surpass imports to the U.S. for the first time ever in 2009

過美國進口額。即使發達國家在2010年完

全恢復，在未來三至五年內，新興市場將

為全球經濟增長貢獻70％至75％的份額。

Funds focused on equities in emerging markets attracted a record of US $75.4 billion in 2009, far surpassing their previous high of US $54 billion in 2007. Much room for growth is expected because only 3 percent of assets managed by U.S. fund managers are invested in emerging markets. Goldman Sachs economists expect consumer spending in emerging markets to grow at 6.5 percent in 2010 after growth of 2.8 percent in 2009. The equivalent figures for advanced economies in 2010 will be 0.2 percent. This high growth of consumption

spending is mainly attributed by these economists to a rapidly expanding middle class in emerging markets. In a report dated November 2009, Goldman Sachs makes it clear that the consumer boom is not just a short-term opportunity but rather a prolonged and sustainable theme. 關注新興市場股權的投資基金在2009年

創下754億美元的投資紀錄，遠遠超出2007

年540億美元的高峰。由於美國基金經理管

理的資產僅有3％投入新興市場，該領域的

增長潛力巨大。高盛的經濟學家預計，新

興市場的消費額繼2009年增長2.8％之後，

將於2010年增長6.5％。而發達國家2010年

的消費額增長可能僅為0.2％。新興市場的

中產階級規模不斷擴大是消費高速增長的

主要推動因素。高盛在2009年11月發佈的

分析報告顯示，消費繁榮並非短期機遇，

而是長期延續的主題。

Long-term investors should remember these words from the Goldman Sachs report: “This growth of the middle class in emerging economies (defined as those with incomes between $6,000 and $30,000 in PPP terms) is set to continue, if not accelerate, over the next two decades and is likely to be critical to how the world is changing... the pace of expansion in the emerging middle class is likely to continue growing until a peak in about a decade. As a result, two billion people could join the global middle class by 2030, or around 30 percent of the world’s population.”長期投資人應高度關注高盛報告的下列

內容：「新興經濟體中產階級（定義為人

均年收入在6,000美元至30,000美元之間）

的增長將在未來二十年內繼續保持（如未

出現加速增長），該群體將對全球格局的

變化產生至關重要的影響。… 新興市場


Economy 57

Funds focused on equities in emerging markets attracted a record of US $75.4 billion in 2009, far surpassing their previous high of US $54 billion in 2007

中產階級群體的擴大將在約十年後達到頂

峰。在2030年之前，全球將有20億人步入

中產階層，約佔全球人口的30％。」

This statistically well-supported assertion should remove the mystique from the phrase “emerging markets.” In the last century, there was much exaggerated talk about the East Asian economic miracle, referring to the explosive growth of the so-called “tiger economies” such as Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman brought everyone back to planet Earth by pointing out that the spectacular growth among these Newly Industrializing Economies (NIEs) could be entirely explained by the way their leaders intelligently mobilized the demographic dividend that resulted from the baby boom after the Second World War. Much of the growth could be explained by the harnessing of the abundant manpower they then had, as they encouraged export-oriented, labor-intensive industries.該預測統計論據充分，有助於消除「新

興市場」的神秘感。上世紀，「亞洲四小

龍」－新加坡,香港,韓國和台灣的爆炸式

經濟增長創造東亞經濟奇跡，成為熱議的

話題。諾貝爾獎得主 Paul Krugman 揭示

新興工業化經濟體（NIE）實現高速增長的

原因，即國家領導人合理利用二戰後嬰兒

潮帶來的人口紅利。多數經濟增長均充分

發揮人力資源的優勢，鼓勵發展出口導向

型及勞動密集型工業。

In an analogous way, the emerging markets of today will lead the world in growth by capitalizing on their huge domestic markets, thanks to their big populations. All of the BRIC and Next-11 emerging markets (with the exception of South Korea) have the additional advantage of being rich, not only in human resources, but in natural resources such as agricultural lands, forests, mineral deposits, petroleum or aquatic resources. These natural resources will attract substantial domestic and foreign investments, which will reinforce the consumption-led growth that they will experience in the next three to five years. At least for the foreseeable future, most countries in the world will experience a significant slowdown in government spending, after the aggressive pump priming of the last two years.

Huge government deficits will have to be brought down to more reasonable levels. Thus, consumption and private investment will have to be the engines of growth. 與之類似，憑藉龐大人口基數，如今的新

興市場將透過巨大國內市場的資本化引領全

球增長。金磚四國及新鑽十一國新興市場

（韓國除外）均有人力資源及自然資源豐富

的優勢，包括農業土地,森林,礦產,石油或

水資源。自然資源將吸引大量國內及境外投

資，從而鞏固未來三至五年內的消費導向型

增長。至少在可預見的未來，歷經過去兩年

政府積極刺激經濟之後，全球多數國家的政

府開支將大幅縮減。巨額財政赤字必須降至

合理的水平。因此，消費及私人投資將成為

經濟增長的推動引擎。

The importance of large populations for both a consumption-led growth and a labour-intensive approach to sustainable development should act as an antidote to the recent surge in neo-Malthusian theories which consider population as a liability rather than as an asset. It is not a coincidence that all the emerging markets included in the list of Goldman Sachs have at least a population of 50 million. For comments, my email address is [email protected].新馬爾薩斯人口論近期開始盛行，該理

論認為，人口並非經濟發展的資本，而是

一種負擔，新興市場憑藉龐大人口基數實

現消費導向型增長及勞動密集型可持續發

展，正是對該理論的有力回擊。在高盛

列出的新興市場清單中，所有國家都至少

擁有5千萬人口，這絕非偶然。如有意發

表評論，請發送電郵至 bvillegas@uap.

edu.ph。|AT|


Economy58

In an analogous way, the emerging markets of today will lead the world in growth by capitalizing on their huge domestic markets, thanks to their big populations

1 Professors Alexander Groh and Heinrich von Liechtenstein coordinated the research, with research assistance from Karsten Lieser.1 Alexander Groh 及 Heinrich von Liechtenstein 教授共同開展此項研究，Karsten Lieser 提供研究協助。

Asian Private Capital 亞洲私人資本－激勵措施與官僚體制負擔迷局！

Incentives and bureaucratic burdens conundrum!

AsiAn cApitAl mArkets exhibit contrasting features. Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore score high on attractiveness, economic robustness and transparency. In contrast, China, India and the VIPs (Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines), while competitive in economic performance, lag in overall attractiveness for venture capital and private equity investors. These are the results of a new index developed by the IESE Business School, Spain1 – 2009 top rated business school globally by The Economist. 亞洲資本市場呈現出反差鮮明的特點。

日本 ,香港及新加坡在投資吸引力 ,經濟

穩健度及監管透明度方面優勢顯著。與之

相對，中國 ,印度及 VIP 地區（越南 ,印

尼及菲律賓）儘管經濟表現富於競爭力，

但對於風險資本及私募股權投資人而言，

其總體吸引力相對滯後。以上結論源自西

班牙 IESE 商學院 1 最新發佈的統計指標，

該商學院被《經濟學家》（The Economist）

雜誌評為 2009 年度全球頂尖商學院。

I am always intrigued by this question: Why the contrasting performance in Asia (and

the world)... and what can the laggards do about it?為何亞洲地區（及全世界）存在如此反差

鮮明的特點？滯後國家應採取何種應對措

施？我一直對這個問題興趣濃厚。

Corruption, bribery, crime and bureaucratic burdens are what make the laggards less attractive to investors. To reverse their misfortunes, voters demand the election of honest leaders for deliverance, while bureaucrats work double time to institute yet more rules and incentives adding to bureaucratic burdens. While honest political leaders are always welcome, integrity alone does not produce buoyant economies.政治腐敗 ,賄賂成風 ,高犯罪率及官僚

體制負擔是滯後國家缺乏吸引力的主要原

因。為改變這種不利局面，選民要求選舉

出誠實正直的領導人，與此同時，官僚機

構則投入雙倍時間制定更多規則及激勵措

施，使官僚體制的負擔更加沉重。儘管誠

實正直的政治領袖始終受到民眾歡迎，但

僅憑正直無法實現經濟繁榮。

It is not merely honest leaders that result in sound policies and entrepreneurial culture,

but also the legal framework and how a system is implemented. Hence, it is not surprising that the leading Asian markets such as Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong – none of which are run by “saints” but by competent political leaders who strictly adhere to rules. Thus, while honest leaders are trusted, the ability to verify adherence to rules is what keeps the system honest and functioning.誠實正直的領導人並非實現理想的政策及企

業文化的唯一因素，法律框架及制度的貫徹方

式亦不可或缺。因此，日本 ,新加坡 ,香港等

亞洲領先市場無一是由「聖賢」治國，而是擁

有能嚴格遵章守紀的合格政治領導人，這著實

在情理之中。由此看來，儘管民眾信賴誠實正

直的領導人，但領導人遵章守紀的能力才是保

持制度透明公正且良性運轉的關鍵。

Why bother with venture capital and private equity?為何制度環境對風險資本及私募股權影響重

大？Venture capital deals with early stage business,

where seed capital and financing enables business ideas to blossom. Entrepreneurs are engines of growth, sources of innovation and employment creation. As business flourishes, private equity funds acquisitions and mergers that allow venture capitalists to realize their gains.風險資本主要與初創企業合作，商業理念憑

藉種子資本及融資方能發展壯大。企業家是經

濟增長的引擎，是創新的源泉，亦是創造就業

機會的要素。隨著業務不斷發展壯大，透過私

募股權基金的收購及合併，風險資本方能獲得

收益。

Scale of economy and its activities fuel opportunities, with growth encouraging entrepreneurial pursuits. As a result of favourable tax regimes and dynamic research that generates new ideas and technologies, business start up increases, and thus employment is created under a flourishing economy.經濟規模及經濟活動可催生商機，業務增長

將鼓勵企業家創造更多價值。憑藉優惠稅收制

度及催生新理念及科技的創新科研，企業將不

斷擴大規模，在經濟繁榮的環境下，將創造更

多就業機會。

Such wealth creation flourishes under transparent legal frameworks and secure property rights. That is, entrepreneurs look to reap the fruits of their labour when successful, while risking their capital to start or acquire businesses. Thus, in

Economy 59


作者/by Ricardo Barcelona

markets where corruption is rampant, contracts are not respected, and peace and order are deteriorating, the high cost of doing business discourages investments, making any access to incentives a fleeting advantage.只有在透明的法律框架及穩固的財產權

利保障下，這種財富創造才能繁榮發展。

企業家在承擔投資風險創辦或收購企業的

同時，希望在業務成功時得到勞動回報。

因此，在腐敗成風的市場，合約得不到應

有的尊重，市場混亂無序，業務成本居高

不下，嚴重削弱投資吸引力，任何激勵措

施的效果都是曇花一現。

The link between business creation and wealth formation is through a functioning capital market. Demand for financing, in less developed markets, is met by commercial banks that often take a conservative view of lending and investment. Such conservatism discourages risk taking that is essential to innovation and new business development. In contrast, an efficient capital market opens avenues for investors to directly invest in business ventures that commercial banks are likely to ignore.創業與財富形成之間須透過運轉良好的資

本市場實現銜接。在欠發達市場，一般由商

業銀行滿足企業的融資需求，但商業銀行對

於此類貸款及投資往往態度保守。這種保守

主義會抑制企業承擔風險，而風險恰是創新

及新業務發展的要素。與之對應，高效的資

本市場為投資人提供直接注資於風險業務的

機會，彌補商業銀行的不足。

These premises are supported by the research on factors that influence global funds flows for venture capital and private equity by Groh and Liechtenstein. Constructing a composite index that incorporates 66 variables, 1% increase in index score results in 0.78% increase in capital flows to a market. Asian data indicate a slightly lower impact of 0.68%, although varying significantly between leaders and laggards. Groh 及 Liechtenstein 教授針對風險資

本及私募股權全球資金流動的影響因素研

究給予該觀點有力支援。其研究建立由 66

個變量組成的綜合指數，指數增加 1％導致

資本流向市場增加 0.78％。亞洲市場的領

先國家與滯後國家之間差異顯著，總體影

響指數略低，為 0.68％。

These factors are grouped into six clusters that track relative economic, social and institutional strengths:研究人員將各類因素分為六組，追蹤相關

經濟情況 ,社會及制度優勢：

1. Economic activity: Economic size, wealth and growth, as well as inflation and labour force

– with high growth economies creating more opportunities.1. 經濟活動：經濟規模 ,財富 ,增長 ,通

貨膨脹及勞動力，增長率較高的經濟可創

造更多機會。

2. Depth of capital market: Size and ease of listing, liquidity, transparency of rules and bank lending to start ups facilitate business formation and fuel mergers and acquisitions.2. 資本市場深度：上市規模及便利程度 ,

清算 ,規則透明度 ,銀行向創業公司提供

貸款推動業務成型的情況以及推動並購的

情況。

3. Taxation: Incentives, difference in corporate and income tax rates as proxy for incentives for self-employment, and the implementation of tax rules facilitate retention of capital gains.3. 稅收：激勵措施 ,憑藉企業稅及收入稅

差異鼓勵自我雇傭 ,以及執行稅收法規促

進資本收益挽留。

4. Investor protection and corporate governance: Property rights, regulation, ease in seeking legal recourse, and disclosures keep the system honest and transparent. 4. 投資人保護及企業管治：財產權 ,法規 ,

尋求法律援助便利度以及保持體制公正透

明的披露措施。

5. Human and social environment: Literacy, labour market policies, crime, rigidity of labour market, and the degree of corruption and bribery influence the cost of doing business.5. 人力及社會環境：文化素質 ,勞動力

市場政策 ,犯罪率 ,勞動力市場剛性 ,

腐敗程度以及賄賂對經營成本的影響。

6. Entrepreneurial culture and opportunities: Ease of starting and doing business, innovation, bureaucracy and the degree of administrative burdens influence the rewards that entrepreneurs can reap from their honest labour. 6. 企業家文化及機遇：創立及經營的便利

度 ,創新 ,官僚體制及行政約束對企業家

獲取誠實勞動回報的影響。

The index scores are compared with the United States as the reference. Hence, a score higher than 100 for a country implies stronger performance in a particular factor relative to the United States. The details of the components of the Venture Capital and Private Equity Country Attractive Index (VCPE Index) are available at http: \\vcpeindex.iese.us/ 指數得分以美國市場作為參照基準。因

此，如某一國家的得分超過 100，表明該國

在特定因素方面優勢超過美國。如需查閱

風險資本及私募股權國家吸引力指數（VCPE

指數）的詳細內容，請瀏覽：http: \\

vcpeindex.iese.us/

How Asia stacks up?亞洲總體情況如何？

Just as the depth of the financial crisis surprised most pundits, the strength of the rebound – particularly for Asia – confounded even the most optimistic forecasts prior to summer of 2009. While the IESE Business School’s 2009 survey used data prior to the 2008 financial crisis, the relative positioning of markets remains meaningful. This perspective is supported thus far by the more rapid recoveries in 2009 achieved by markets that scored highly in the survey. 金融危機影響的深度已經令多數學者大跌

眼鏡，而亞洲國家的強勁復蘇勢頭甚至超

出 2009 年夏季之前最樂觀預測的意料。儘

管 IESE 商學院的 2009 年調查使用的是

2008 年金融危機之前的數據，對各個市場

的相對情況分析仍具有參考意義。調查中

得分較高的市場在2009年的恢復速度更快，

充分印證該調查結論的價值。 Table 1.0 shows Asia leading Africa and

Latin America. Within Asia, Hong Kong and Singapore, consistent top performers in


Economy60

Why the contrasting performance in Asia (and the world)...and what can the

laggards do about it?

international transparency and governance surveys, surpass Japan in investment attractiveness. 表 1.0 表明亞洲領先非洲及拉美。在亞

洲內部，香港及新加坡在國際透明度及管

治調查方面位居前列，投資吸引力超過日

本。

What divides advanced Asian economies such as Hong Kong and Singapore from the United States, however, has less to do with transparency and legislation governing business. Hong Kong and Singapore have surpassed the United States and the developed economies in terms of legislation, given their higher scores on factors related to rules and legislative frameworks such as Taxation, Investor Protection and the Human and Social Environment.如將香港及新加坡等先進的亞洲經濟體

與美國對比，在透明度及管治法規方面差

異不大。在稅收 ,投資人保護 ,人力及社

會環境等法規及法律框架相關因素方面，

香港及新加坡得分更高，已經超過美國及

發達經濟體。

When it comes to translating such favourable legislative frameworks into outcomes, such as Economic Activity, Depth of Capital Market, and Entrepreneurial Culture and Opportunities, Asia’s relative position to the United States and developed economies tells a vastly divergent story. This is shown in Table 2.0, where the gaps in scores between leaders and laggards are significant.

在將優勢法規框架轉化為成果方面，例

如經濟活動 ,資本市場深度 ,企業家文化

及機遇，亞洲各國的情況與美國及發達經

濟體的對比結果迥異。表 2.0 具體說明該

情況，領先國家與滯後國家的得分差距顯

著。

Let me elaborate on this by segmenting the Asian data into three broad categories: Advance Asia – Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and the Republic of Korea; Emerging Asia – Taiwan, Malaysia, China, Thailand and India; and VIP – Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines. 我們可將亞洲數據分為三類：發達亞洲

－香港 ,新加坡 ,日本及韓國；新興亞洲

－臺灣 ,馬來西亞 ,中國 ,泰國及印度；

及 VIP －越南 ,印尼及菲律賓。

The virtues of advance Asian economies are perhaps well known – transparent rules, a qualified work force, and possession of basic conditions that can sustain a dynamic economic and investment climate. 眾所周知，亞洲先進經濟體的優點包括

透明的法規 ,高質素勞動力以及具備能維

持活躍經濟及投資文化的基礎條件。

Capital market size and depth are drawbacks. Cross border listing solves part of this problem, whereby globally competitive companies list their stocks in London and / or New York to mitigate limitations of their local stock markets.資本市場規模及深度是亞洲先進經濟體

的不足在所在。跨境上市可部分解決此類

問題，具有國際競爭力的公司可在倫敦及

／或紐約上市，緩解本地股票市場的限制。

亞洲風險資本及私募股權

Ricardo G Barcelona1

表 1.0－新興地區對比美國的相對得分

資料來源：IESE 商學院

表 2.0－亞洲市場對比美國的相對得分


排名地區經濟活動

資本市場

深度

稅收

投資人

保護及

企業管治

人力及

社會環境

企業家文化

及機遇

香港 5 亞洲 89,3 37,7 137,7 107,1 106,1 77,9新加坡 6 亞洲 87,5 26,0 141,7 113,5 124,1 93,8日本 7 亞洲 96,9 37,5 101,6 91,0 92,1 94,7南非 43 非洲 53,3 18,0 115,2 73,8 34,3 30,3摩洛哥 56 非洲 65,0 9,1 101,4 38,8 37,9 26,2尼日利亞 62 非洲 59,8 5,6 101,3 39,7 40,0 14,7智利 32 拉丁美洲 72,7 12,6 112,8 80,2 77,0 35,2墨西哥 49 拉丁美洲 80,5 11,1 108,9 51,9 37,1 31,9巴西 51 拉丁美洲 79,9 19,3 39,2 45,4 42,0 22,7

排名經濟活動

資本市場

深度稅收

投資人

保護和

企業管治

人力及

社會環境

企業家文化

及機遇

香港 5 89,3 37,7 137,7 107,1 106,1 77,9新加坡 6 87,5 26,0 141,7 113,5 124,1 93,8日本 7 96,9 37,5 101,6 91,0 92,1 94,7韓國 13 87,7 29,8 134,6 75,7 73,6 89,7台灣 23 82,2 18,7 116,9 75,8 73,2 59,9馬來西亞 25 77,5 23,0 123,7 73,3 75,8 43,2中國 28 79,7 37,7 72,1 48,6 61,4 29,6泰國 36 73,4 15,6 106,4 58,1 62,8 26,6印度 38 63,0 33,5 97,1 54,8 64,9 11,5印尼 54 63,5 13,8 97,5 32,1 47,6 16,6越南 60 43,2 7,6 99,2 32,2 46,5 23,7菲律賓 61 60,8 9,9 96,8 38,4 38,9 11,0

Asian Venture Capital and Private EquityRicardo G Barcelona

1

rights, regu.

Table 1.0 – Relative Scores of Emerging Regions vs United States

Rank RegionEconomicActivity

Depth ofCapitalMarket

Taxation

InvestorProtection &CorporateGovernance

Human &Social

Environment

Entrepreneurial Culture &Opportunities

Hong Kong 5 Asia 89,3 37,7 137,7 107,1 106,1 77,9Singapore 6 Asia 87,5 26,0 141,7 113,5 124,1 93,8Japan 7 Asia 96,9 37,5 101,6 91,0 92,1 94,7South Africa 43 Africa 53,3 18,0 115,2 73,8 34,3 30,3Morocco 56 Africa 65,0 9,1 101,4 38,8 37,9 26,2Nigeria 62 Africa 59,8 5,6 101,3 39,7 40,0 14,7Chile 32 Latin America 72,7 12,6 112,8 80,2 77,0 35,2Mexico 49 Latin America 80,5 11,1 108,9 51,9 37,1 31,9Brazil 51 Latin America 79,9 19,3 39,2 45,4 42,0 22,7

Table 2.0 – Relative Scores of Asian markets vs United States

RankEconomicActivity


Taxation


Human &Social

Environment


Hong Kong 5 89,3 37,7 137,7 107,1 106,1 77,9Singapore 6 87,5 26,0 141,7 113,5 124,1 93,8Japan 7 96,9 37,5 101,6 91,0 92,1 94,7Republic of Korea 13 87,7 29,8 134,6 75,7 73,6 89,7Taiwan 23 82,2 18,7 116,9 75,8 73,2 59,9Malaysia 25 77,5 23,0 123,7 73,3 75,8 43,2China 28 79,7 37,7 72,1 48,6 61,4 29,6Thailand 36 73,4 15,6 106,4 58,1 62,8 26,6India 38 63,0 33,5 97,1 54,8 64,9 11,5Indonesia 54 63,5 13,8 97,5 32,1 47,6 16,6Vietnam 60 43,2 7,6 99,2 32,2 46,5 23,7Phil ippines 61 60,8 9,9 96,8 38,4 38,9 11,0

Source: IESE Business School


表1.0－新興地區對比美國的相對得分


SoURcE: IESE BUSInESS ScHooL

Divergent rules among Asian stock exchanges inadvertently failed to translate Asia’s dynamic economic growth into a deeper pool of capital to fund Asian business ventures. Work towards integration such as ASEAN stock exchanges, may resolve this apparent disadvantage by increasing the depth and size of capital markets. 由於亞洲各國股票交易所的規則迥異，

導致難以將亞洲的積極經濟增長轉化為更

具深度的資本來源，無法為亞洲風險業務

注入充足資金。東盟國家股票交易所的整

合工作可提高資本市場的深度及規模，有

助於彌補該顯著劣勢。

The majority of family owned businesses are held privately. Partly, the desire by founders to retain control and confidentiality of family fortunes dissuade owners from public listing. For cash rich families, the incentive becomes even less. As a result of the transition into professional management, the impact of the 2008 financial crisis, and the more aggressive push towards expansion and new businesses, we may see changes to this attitude. 亞洲多數家族企業均為私有制。部分企

業創始人希望維持對企業的控制，穩固家

族財富，對企業上市態度消極。對於現金

豐富的家族而言，上市的積極性更低。由

於企業正逐步向專業化管理過渡，加之

2008 年金融危機的衝擊，以及企業正積極

擴張業務，在這些因素的綜合影響下，家

族企業的態度正在轉變。

What went wrong in practice?實際操作領域遇到哪些問題？

To attract investments, developing markets rely heavily on tax incentives. With the exception of China, the scores on Taxation converge with the U.S. At least on paper,

Asian legislation is seen to be as transparent as American rules. 為吸引投資，發展中市場對稅收優惠措施

的依賴程度較高。多數國家的稅收因素得

分與美國接近，僅中國除外。亞洲的法律

體系起碼在名義上與美國的透明度相當。

Turning to factors that indicate quality of implementation – Investor Protection and Governance, Human and Social Development and Entrepreneurial Culture and Opportunities – the ranking of markets start to resemble

that of surveys on transparency conducted by institutions such as the Heritage Foundation and Transparency International. 如果分析能體現執行質素的因素，包括

投資人保護及管治 ,人力及社會發展 ,企

業家文化及機遇，各個市場的排名結果與

Heritage Foundation 及 Transparency

International 等機構進行的透明度調查

結論類似。

Countries with low transparency scores (i.e. more corrupt) tended to score low on factors that indicate quality of implementation. Hence, while the rules may resemble developed market legislation, corrupt practices beholden the implementation of the rules to competing interests that render apparently transparent rules into unpredictable regulatory framework. Perhaps, this is best illustrated through an example. 對於透明度得分較低（即更腐敗）的國家，

可體現執行質素的因素得分亦較低。因此，

此類國家儘管法規與發達市場類似，但法

規執行背後的腐敗會導致表明透明的法規

轉變為難以預計的監管框架。或許，透過

舉例可充分闡釋該情況。

Imagine a football field where each team that qualifies to play is given access to funding and exploit merchandising opportunities that are lucrative. Undoubtedly, once qualified to play, the teams execute their game according to a set of rules that are known to everyone. Hence, a team that gets the ball past the goal keeper scores a point, while after a number of fouls a red card could be issued to disqualify a player. Up to this point, the game sounds fairly simple and transparent for as long as the team manages to gain entry into the football field. 我們設想有一座足球場，所有符合資格

的球隊都能獲取資金並把握有利商業機會。

無疑，一旦取得比賽資格，球隊會按照公

認的規則參賽。因此，只要足球跨過球門線，

球隊就能得分，如果屢次犯規，裁判可將

不合格球員紅牌罰下。此刻，只要球隊想

方設法取得參賽資格，比賽就能保持簡單

透明。

What about those teams that are trying to gain entry?

正努力取得參賽資格的球隊情況怎樣呢？ Again, imagine the gatekeeper is endowed with an enormous influence on how rules for entry are interpreted and implemented. Playing by “local rules”, flexible interpretation allows the gate-keeper to legislate, interpret and execute a decision on who gets in. Inadvertently, this encourages bidding for that limited slot that

亞洲風險資本及私募股權

Ricardo G Barcelona1

表 1.0－新興地區對比美國的相對得分


表 2.0－亞洲市場對比美國的相對得分


排名地區經濟活動

資本市場

深度

稅收

投資人

保護及

企業管治

人力及

社會環境

企業家文化

及機遇

香港 5 亞洲 89,3 37,7 137,7 107,1 106,1 77,9新加坡 6 亞洲 87,5 26,0 141,7 113,5 124,1 93,8日本 7 亞洲 96,9 37,5 101,6 91,0 92,1 94,7南非 43 非洲 53,3 18,0 115,2 73,8 34,3 30,3摩洛哥 56 非洲 65,0 9,1 101,4 38,8 37,9 26,2尼日利亞 62 非洲 59,8 5,6 101,3 39,7 40,0 14,7智利 32 拉丁美洲 72,7 12,6 112,8 80,2 77,0 35,2墨西哥 49 拉丁美洲 80,5 11,1 108,9 51,9 37,1 31,9巴西 51 拉丁美洲 79,9 19,3 39,2 45,4 42,0 22,7

排名經濟活動

資本市場

深度稅收

投資人

保護和

企業管治

人力及

社會環境

企業家文化

及機遇

香港 5 89,3 37,7 137,7 107,1 106,1 77,9新加坡 6 87,5 26,0 141,7 113,5 124,1 93,8日本 7 96,9 37,5 101,6 91,0 92,1 94,7韓國 13 87,7 29,8 134,6 75,7 73,6 89,7台灣 23 82,2 18,7 116,9 75,8 73,2 59,9馬來西亞 25 77,5 23,0 123,7 73,3 75,8 43,2中國 28 79,7 37,7 72,1 48,6 61,4 29,6泰國 36 73,4 15,6 106,4 58,1 62,8 26,6印度 38 63,0 33,5 97,1 54,8 64,9 11,5印尼 54 63,5 13,8 97,5 32,1 47,6 16,6越南 60 43,2 7,6 99,2 32,2 46,5 23,7菲律賓 61 60,8 9,9 96,8 38,4 38,9 11,0

Asian Venture Capital and Private EquityRicardo G Barcelona

1

rights, regu.


Rank RegionEconomicActivity


Taxation


Human &Social

Environment


Hong Kong 5 Asia 89,3 37,7 137,7 107,1 106,1 77,9Singapore 6 Asia 87,5 26,0 141,7 113,5 124,1 93,8Japan 7 Asia 96,9 37,5 101,6 91,0 92,1 94,7South Africa 43 Africa 53,3 18,0 115,2 73,8 34,3 30,3Morocco 56 Africa 65,0 9,1 101,4 38,8 37,9 26,2Nigeria 62 Africa 59,8 5,6 101,3 39,7 40,0 14,7Chile 32 Latin America 72,7 12,6 112,8 80,2 77,0 35,2Mexico 49 Latin America 80,5 11,1 108,9 51,9 37,1 31,9Brazil 51 Latin America 79,9 19,3 39,2 45,4 42,0 22,7


RankEconomicActivity


Taxation


Human &Social

Environment


Hong Kong 5 89,3 37,7 137,7 107,1 106,1 77,9Singapore 6 87,5 26,0 141,7 113,5 124,1 93,8Japan 7 96,9 37,5 101,6 91,0 92,1 94,7Republic of Korea 13 87,7 29,8 134,6 75,7 73,6 89,7Taiwan 23 82,2 18,7 116,9 75,8 73,2 59,9Malaysia 25 77,5 23,0 123,7 73,3 75,8 43,2China 28 79,7 37,7 72,1 48,6 61,4 29,6Thailand 36 73,4 15,6 106,4 58,1 62,8 26,6India 38 63,0 33,5 97,1 54,8 64,9 11,5Indonesia 54 63,5 13,8 97,5 32,1 47,6 16,6Vietnam 60 43,2 7,6 99,2 32,2 46,5 23,7Phil ippines 61 60,8 9,9 96,8 38,4 38,9 11,0

Source: IESE Business School


表2.0－亞洲市場對比美國的相對得分


SoURcE: IESE BUSInESS ScHooL

Economy62


Economy 63

allows teams to reap rich dividends on entry. Thus, if left unregulated and no recourse is provided to realistically appeal any decisions, the highest bidder tends to gain entry. This is plain and simple bribery! 我們可以設想，對於准入資

格的闡釋及執行，球場門衛

可發揮重要影響。根據「本

地規矩」，球場門衛可靈活闡

釋准入規則，從而決定哪些

球隊能夠入場。這種現狀導

致球隊為取得有限的准入資

格相互競價。因此，如果沒

有有效的監管，且沒有針對

准入決定的切實質疑措施，

競價最高的球隊便獲得准入

資格。這就是顯而易見的賄

賂！

Relating this to private investments, the costs of bribery in a corrupt system tend to outweigh incentives offered by legislation. Consequently, as entry fees become prohibitive with worsening corruption, it stands to reason that there will be fewer teams willing to play. Thus, the market may appear excessively lucrative for insiders, while for the majority of investors, an “attractive” market is beyond reach.如果與私人投資關聯考慮，在腐敗制度

下的賄賂成本會超出法規提供的鼓勵優惠。

因此，在腐敗日益嚴重的環境下，即使免

收准入費，願意參與比賽的球隊仍將不斷

減少。由此看來，儘管市場對入局者而言

吸引力巨大，但對多數投資人而言，這種「吸

引力」遙不可及。

Actions for the laggards滯後國家的措施 Emerging Asia and VIP suffer from this malaise. The reaction is to legislate more rules that in the absence of trust end up with a system of checks and balances. However, such checks and balances in reality create layers of bureaucracy checking on each other. Out of fear of being accused of plunder, bureaucrats behave in a most natural way – pass the buck and cover your backside. In plain sight, this is counter-productive and adds to bureaucratic burdens that create no economic value.

這種不利現狀使新興亞洲國家及 VIP 國家

飽受其害。應對該問題時，應在非信任前

提下制定更多法規，形成審查及平衡制度。

不過，此類審查及平衡制度在實際操作中

會導致官僚體制層級增加，出現相互審查

的情況。官僚主義者不怕被人視為掠奪者，

他們會十分自然地推卸責任。顯然，這種

做法毫無效益，會給創造經濟價值帶來更

多官僚體制負擔。 One school of thought suggests that the

antidote to corruption is to elect political leaders with integrity. The logic appears to go as follows: with honest leaders in government, they will work towards greater transparency that will eliminate corrupt practices. However, without sound policies and effective institutions that will support and encourage sound business practices, integrity alone will hardly unblock the capital flows.有學者認為，選舉正直的政治領導人是

解決腐敗的良方。其邏輯思路如下：如果

由誠實正直的領導人組成政府，政府會努

力實現更高透明度，從而消除腐敗。不過，

如沒有理想的政策及高效的行政機構提供

支援及鼓勵，僅憑正直難以疏通資本流動。

If political leaders are seen as having the roles of referees in a football game, electing honest leaders without changing the gatekeeper is tantamount to perpetuating an inherently corrupt system. As the number of teams dwindles, because corruption drives away competitive teams that have better choices elsewhere, monopolists assert their power and influence that eventually overcome even the best intentioned political leadership.如果說政治領導人的作用與足球比賽中

的裁判類似，選舉誠實正直的領導人但不

更換球場門衛，等同於繼續維持腐敗的體

制。在腐敗影響下，越來越多的球隊放棄

參賽，轉向其他更好的選擇，壟斷者將充

分施加自己的影響力，即使是最好的政治

領導亦難以發揮作用。

Therefore, laggards can only hope to attract more investors into their field if they change the mechanics of access – and boot out the gatekeeper that nurtures corrupt practices. 因此，滯後國家必須改變准入機制，摒

棄滋生腐敗的球場門衛制度，這樣才有希

望吸引更多投資人進入市場。

Laggards such as VIP and emerging Asia have their tasks cut out for them. Rather than creating more rules to fight corruption, and increasing incentives to attract more investors, they need to focus on reducing the bureaucratic burdens of investments. Specifically, they may consider the following areas of action: VIP 國家及新興亞洲國家等滯後者面臨

亟待完成的任務。這些國家不僅要努力消

除腐敗，提高自身吸引力，還必須重點減

少官僚體制給投資帶來的負擔。這些國家

可考慮在下列領域採取具體措施：

1. ASEAN capital market integration: ASEAN as a trading bloc potentially offers greater depth than its individual markets. By allowing shares to be freely listed and traded in an ASEAN exchange, or cross listing among qualified member states, international competition provides incentives to laggards to shape up


because inaction carries greater penalties. 1. 東盟資本市場整合：較之單獨的市場，

東盟作為貿易區可提供更理想的深度。透

過允許股票在東盟交易所內自由上市並交

易，或在合資格成員國之間實現跨境上市，

國際競爭可為滯後國家提供改革激勵，因

為不作為往往帶來更多負面影響。

2. Rationalize bureaucracy: Unlike Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, where the best and the brightest talents are attracted to a professional bureaucracy, laggards share one legacy – jobs in bureaucracy are often seen as rewards for political patronage. Without professional careers to build on, incentives to stay for even the most patriotic diminish. Hence, professionalizing the bureaucracy is the first step towards reducing inefficiency and bureaucratic burdens.2. 合理改革官僚體制：香港 ,新加坡及日

本吸引最優秀的人才建立職業化官僚體制，

滯後國家與之截然不同，這些國家的政府

職位往往是政治贊助的回報。如果沒有職

業發展的基礎，鼓勵留職的措施即使對最

具愛國之心的人士亦毫無作用。因此，職

業化官僚體制是提高效率並減少官僚體制

負擔的第一步。

3. Simplify rules: Multiple agencies responsible

for investment promotion, licensing and incentives may need to be consolidated under a unified entity. Making bureaucracy serve business and its public is a starting point, so that business can focus on the tasks that make business work. As a rule of thumb, the incentive to circumvent the rules increases with the degree of complexity – more so as the bureaucratic process becomes cumbersome. 3. 簡化法規：如果有多個機構管理投資推

廣 ,執照發放及鼓勵措施，應將其整合為

統一的機構。實現官僚體制為企業及公眾

服務是第一步，這樣企業才能專心開展業

務。法規越複雜，企業越傾向於規避法規，

官僚管理流程會成為企業發展的負擔。

4. Adhere to the rules: With fewer rules to comply with and police, governance focus is on ensuring transparency and the proper functioning of a market economy.

4. 遵守法規：簡化法規後，政府可將管治

重點放在確保透明及市場經濟的正常運轉

之上。

US President Ronald Reagan made a useful distinction between trusting and making a deal work. When Mikhail Gorbachov told Reagan to trust him during their nuclear weapons reduction negotiation, Reagan responded – Trust but verify! 美國總統羅納德·里根（Ronald Reagan）

用理智的方式區分信任與實現工作完成。

削減核武器談判期間，Mikhail Gorbachov

要求里根總統給予充分信任：里根回答道

－信任你，但必須核實！

To emerge and join the league of global leaders, laggards need to look beyond political leaders of apparent integrity for deliverance. They need to work hard so that investors and bureaucrats can verify that the rule of law is alive and well. This is the essence of transparency.

對滯後國家而言，要想與全球領先國家

同場競技，除依靠正直領導人之外，還有

更多工作需要完成。這些國家必須努力改

變現狀，使投資人及政府官員能證實法規

執行良好。這是透明度的要義所在。|AT|

Economy64

As a rule of thumb, the incentive to circumvent the rules increases with the degree of complexity

2009 brought about a prosperous time in stocks as indices found themselves rebounding over 50%+ in values since March lows. But out of the exorbitantly cheap states to which stocks were cast in during the first quarter of 2009, this year should show more modest or tempered swings in upward action. It is usually the case that people tend to underestimate an economic (and stock market) recovery and end up revising their initial projections upwards at the latter portion of the rebound. By this time markets have pushed up significantly and have reached fair or extended valuations. Thus given such a potential situation of extendedness, it is highly likely that larger scale corrections may surface this year to whittle down overbought and unmitigated upward swings that markets have already shown into the last year. So the year of the tiger may be striped with high selectivity and prone to scratchy reactions. But take heart that reactions which could set indices

2010: Upward bias to continue but may have to deal with a major correction or two

back by 8% to 15% would bring about windows of opportunity for trading buys – opportunities that were absent in 2009 given its headlong rise to current levels.

The SP500 recovers 50% of its drop… how much more?

The SP500 managed to recover quite a bit of its loss in 2009, regaining over 50% of lost value. But can equities proceed to cast its recovery in stone – possibly, but count on a bumpier ride moving forward. The danger shows itself in weakening upward momentum which has surfaced clearly in its weekly MACD readings that show some degree of flatness at current reads. This coupled along with the stretch in price inhibits short term upside potential – perhaps looking up a little more, possibly grasping for a graceful tag of 1,230 (registering a Fibonacci 61.8% recovery). After which a necessary reaction may be mandated to chew off overbought readings and effectively sign on a period of profit taking. It may be a good idea from now on to raise protective stops to medium term moving averages (13 or 26 weeks) to curb outlying risks.

It may be good to factor in that markets usually need two legs to stand on. We have seen the first crunch leading to last year’s first quarter selling spree… this building the first leg of market support. But a second support leg (or second dip) may be needed, preferably with a higher low to establish and uphold a higher base for demand action.

This also testifies to the fact the economies have managed to step a little better into the stream of the economic cycle. We may already have seen the worst as the point of economic desperation has departed, but turnarounds are just beginning to show and clearly many still sway towards being cautious and mindful of potential upsets in economic performance. At such stages it may be necessary to slowly proceed upwards and reinforce upward swings with higher low bases in price as more evidence of turnarounds and economic catalysts of positive change take root.


Technical Overview of Markets 65World Market Performance (Jan 18, 2009)

Country StockChart Code

StockChart

Current Price 32-day MA 65-day MA Rally high from ‘09 base

YTD Performance

USA $spx 1,136 1,119 1,101 72.7% 1.88%Philippines $psec 3,106 3,055 3,011 79.6% 1.76%England $ftse 5,494 5,377 5,299 61.9% 1.51%Japan $nikk 10,855 10,338 10,113 56.4% 2.93%Hong Kong $hsi 21,460 21,836 22,000 103.6% -1.89%China $ssec 3,237 3,237 3,102 91.7% -1.22%

(* Red colored Moving Average value presents that prices have fallen below it and may now act out as resistance)

Year of the Tiger

impending rise may be subdued and may take longer to produce outside of Asia. As sensitive economies have yet to cement their economic revival coming out of the recent global financial crisis, governments would not be in any hurry to raise rates too much to be a discomfort. It may scare markets at first (as it brings many to look into this threat) but high chances are that a slow pull up in rates should reinstate liquidity back to equities after a brief or moderate corrective move.

…but inflation (frothed by China) is being watched carefully

The worry over rates stems from traces of inflationary pressure rolling back in. With economies on the recovery road, demand and liquidity from strong economies (particularly from Asia and China) are keeping prices of goods elevated. The CRB or commodity index testifies to this fact as it still shows a clear uptrend with prices of basic commodities. And why so? Well China has a lot to do with this as its economy rides red hot. China’s economy is in overdrive as possible asset bubbles and inflation anxieties build, posing a “major risk” to global growth. Chinese property prices for example have risen at the fastest pace in 1.5 years in December, with real-estate values in about 70 Chinese cities climbing 7.8% from a year earlier. In fact the government

found the need to re-impose a sales tax on homes sold within five years while its central bank raised the reserve requirement, all in an effort to rein in liquidity from record lending without stalling a recovery. This clearly will need to be watched.

What is all the chatter on rates…

With the global economy showing pockets of recovery, it begs the question whether interest rates may follow upwards to control possible lifts in inflation. Bond Yields have already moved ahead in advance showing off a rise in potential rates and demonstrating investors’ feelings on such potential increases. As clear as a potential threat this could be, as it would signal off the end of the cycle for low rates, its

A ‘Hold’ is still in effect but be prepared for greater rotation and reactive gusts A Hold is maintained for equities as most global indices do show clear up trends. China and Hong Kong seem to be the only indices that have drifted sideways as investors seek more clarity in China’s drive to slow their economy down. Use medium term moving averages (13 to 26-week) to mark out protective stops and hold positions, so long as no untoward breaks in support are shown.It is quite likely that a high selective drive may be shown and a greater number of stocks may produce higher sways in rotational action. This may keep investors on their toes and traders on a wide variety of short term picks. A rough road stands ahead so be prepared for some bumpiness. |AT|

Technical Overview of Markets66


67ATIR Market Report

Nikkei 225 (Japan)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

10,653 10,337 11,500-11,700 12,200

Shanghai Composite (China) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

3,155 3,000 3,306-3,360 3,500

Nikkei climbs to 15-month highThe Nikkei climbed to a new recent high tagging a new 15-month high. Its recent break above 10,767 does raise its target to 11,500 - 11,700. Unfortunately its stretch upwards now stands at overbought levels and may need to show some corrective action soon. Moreover momentum readings have also slowed which may allow corrective forces to kick in sooner rather than later. It may be more prudent to wait for prices to close in on short term support before taking on new positions; support stands closer to 10,650 to 10,330.

StRategy: Hold but be ready for a reactive manoeuvre to fix overbought levels; stop placed at 16-day MA (10,653). New positions should only be introduced after a short term reaction to heavier support given its overbought condition.

Shanghai consolidates sidewaysShanghai’s Composite index grooved to a consolidating halt and has shown some heaviness in resistance. Cascading within a ranged pattern between 3,360 and 3,000 the index seems to be losing upward momentum and may yet likely show another reaction closer to support. Weekly chart studies also confirm its corrective drive and also profess more reactive moves. It would be necessary for prices to break above 3,360 in order to re-establish its upward bias.

StRategy: A Sell into Strength is recommended in order to take advantage of prices near resistance. Moreover any buys should be restricted to after reactive moves closer to support. Preliminary stop should be placed at 3,155.

-500

100

50

7000

8000

13000

14000

15000

9000

12000

MACD on Close (12,26)Signal on Close (9)DIFF on Close

230.6720279.985310.6867

RSI on Close (14) 63.94

11000

10000

LastHigh on 08/02/08AverageLow on 10/28/08SMAVG on Close (65)SMAVG on Close (32)SMAVG on Close (260)SMAVG on Close (130)

10855.0813079.379510.356994.9010112.574210337.55579383.795910110.6963

0

Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008 2009

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2010

-100

100

100

50

4000

2000

1500

3000

4000

3500

Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008


20102009


6.23635.64630.5900


LastHigh on 08/04/09AverageLOw on 11/28/08SMAVG on Close (65)SMAVG on Close (32)SMAVG on Close (260)SMAVG on Close (130)

3237.0983478.0102584.7241664.9253190.37263220.76072767.22393118.7710

FEBRUARY 2010 | aSIaN tIgeRS INVeStOR RePORt

Set Index (Thailand)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

730 712 758 800

Jakarta Composite (Indonesia) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,531 2,484 2,772 2,838

723.69

-40

0

100

50

400

700

800

500

746.89

712.70

600


9.84179.47150.3702


587.98

0.3702

689.33

9.8417

64.81

Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008


20102009


746.89758.55569.72380.05712.7049123.6853587.9798689.3254

-100

0

100

50

1400

1200

1000

1600

2000

1800

2400

2200

2600


45.945739.82386.1218



2642.5482661.9281886.6721089.3402484.98392531.69951988.34132399.5464

Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008


20102009

FEBRUARY 2010

atIR Market Report68

aSIaN tIgeRS INVeStOR RePORt |

The Set will have to test its highsThe Thai Set index continues to climb but it does near its previous high of 758. Such a resistance may pose as a problem after several weeks of a climb, as prices seem a little stretched. Another matter to worry about is upward momentum seems to be lapsing and this may prove to be quite slippery into the next couple of weeks. Perhaps a higher low reaction closer to short term support may be necessary to produce a better foothold for prices.

StRategy: A Hold should be maintained but a tighter stop is mandated at 7.30. If prices break this then expect a pullback closet to 712 to 689. Only a higher low dip may be proposed for a new buy as the danger of a double top is present.

The JCI breaks resistance but is stretchedJakarta’s index has come a long way in almost recovering its entire loss during the global financial crisis. But too much of an outstretch may make the next few weeks a little harder to propel upwards. Major resistance by way of previous highs stand between 2,772 and 2,838 and these areas may unleash some heaviness in supply. Moreover prices do show some spread to their short term moving averages and this highlights the extendedness in its situation. Momentum readings have also shown some slowdown which could similarly inhibit short term upsides.

StRategy: A Hold is also maintained but look to raise profit take stops to recently made reaction lows or its 32-day MA, currently at 2,531.

KLSE Composite (Malaysia)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

1,274 1,223 1,300 1,370

PSE Index (Philippines) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

3,055 3,011 3,130 3,250

StRategy: Range Trade the channel or hold as long as the supportive 32-day MA does not break (this support stop is currently seen at 1,274). Look for profit taking measures only if prices come to reach the proximity of resistance targets between 1,300-1,310.

The PSE rolls upwardsThe PSEi rallied to its previous high and may also have some problems in handling this resistance. But the index keeps its upward trend secure and only a break below its 65-day Moving Average (MA) currently at 3,011 or trendline at 3,000 may upset its major uptrend bias. Standing in the middle of its price channel, it may be a good idea to wait for a better entry if prices can swing back closer to supportive zones.

StRategy: Proceed to Hold or range trade its channel so long as supportive forces can provide lift; but do raise protective stops to short term averages closer to 3,055.

0

-40

100

Sept Nov Dec

50

800

1100

1200

1300

2008

900

1297.99

1274.911268.49

1000


8.47327.05961.4137


1091.22

1223.71

8.4732

68.14

Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

20102009


1297.991300.891053.35801.271268.48891274.91441091.22191223.7068

2200

2400

-100

0

100

50

1600

1800

2800

3000

3200

2000

2600


23.021516.46846.5532


Sept Nov Dec

2008

Oct Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

20102009


3106.303133.532418.761684.753011.55253055.64622479.76642880.5713

FEBRUARY 2010

atIR Market Report 69

| aSIaN tIgeRS INVeStOR RePORt

Malaysia proceeds to channel upThe KLSE index proceeds with its channelled advance and maintains its rising support structure. A channel continues to guide prices along its advance and maintains its supportive structure above the 32-day moving average, presently at 1,274. Momentum however is flat but its RSI is not overbought nor is it now showing any divergence dangers – this could leave for more room into a gradual advance. Upsides are seen closer to 1,300-1,310.

Straits Times Index (Singapore)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,851 2,691 3,000 3,270

Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

21,277 20,987 23,200 24,000

StRategy: A Hold to lighten is maintained for the STI. But do raise support stops to 2,851 (its 32-day MA) as a safety net precaution given its extendedness.

StRategy: Look to lighten into rallies and maintain supportive stops at major lows. A break of the 130-day MA (21,277) could very well attest to a retest if not a possible break of major support.

The STI breaks through its channels highsThe Singapore Straits Times Index accelerated upwards but again may have been too stretched. Also recovering most of its crisis period losses, the index is fast approaching major resistance zones. Expect some problems closer to 3,000 and if it can extend to 3,270, as these may house clear traces of overhanging supply. Moreover, this recent advance drove upwards with a flat MACD reading – suggesting that momentum was absent into the drive. This may also call in reactive choppiness soon to contain any exaggeration.

Hang Seng hangs on a lower high rangeThe Hang Seng index has softened its advancing stand to a consolidating one and currently hangs on this defensive posture. Showing lower highs twice in recent rallies, this airs out some signs of corrective danger. In fact as its present reactive swing shows that a high possibility exists for prices to come and test its lows near 20,987-20,900. This should raise some lightening concerns. Also its momentum and RSI readings have backed off to a degree that shows greater weakness, signifying that up trending indications have been whittled down.

-3.2486

-100

100

50

1500

3000

2008

2000

2912.02

2781.12

2500


31.718834.9674-3.486


2691.26

2311.59

31.7188

62.18

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

2009 2010

2851.50


2912.022947.082243.991455.472781.11622851.49632311.58762691.2605

0

220004116.57

-1000

100

50

14000

12000

10000

16000

20000

10000

24000

41.66

18266.40

22000.7321460.01

-12.5917


21460.0123099.5717689.4010676.2922000.726621835.755918266.398421277.5762

Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008


20102009


-12.591721.4517-34.0434


FEBRUARY 2010



Kospi (South Korea) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

1,662 1,519 1,723 1,800

All Ordinaries Index (Australia) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

4,797 4,600 5,000 5,150

StRategy: A Hold is raised as long as support at 1,662 is not broken. Take profits if its support stop is breached looking for a reaction to mid-level or major support (1,600 to 1,519).

StRategy: A Hold or range trade strategy is still offered looking at some lightening closer to the previous high near 4,900. So use rallies near its recent highs as a window to profit take and estimate buy-backs closer to support of 4,797 to 4,600.

The Kospi to test major resistanceThe Kospi continues to climb toward its previously made high after breaking through its downward channel. The MACD warns of a correction or consolidation as it crosses down and attempts to flatten off. Its moves within the next week or two should produce a decisive track to resound or react to its resistance and offer greater clarity to our potential action. Given that other indices show the same condition and vulnerability to supply, be quite ready to react in case a corrective move proves resistance solid.

Australia keeps to its rising channel The All Ordinaries index climbs toward the higher end of its channel. Prices have bounced from the 4,510 level and may now look to retest its recent high as no overbought conditions exist to stop it from doing so. However, momentum seems to be waning as it crosses down, so prices may be contained below its resistance of 5,000. Refrain from buying after prices stage a new recent high as these are likely traps to produce short term highs.

-200

0

100

50

1000

1400

1600

1800

1200


17.042017.5927-0.5507


Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008 2009


2010


1711.781723.171386.85892.161632.02011662.92791443.95211613.6421

4797.15

-200

100

50

4000

3500

3000

4500

5500

5000

6000

62.75

1.4412

4116.57

4607.29

4758.64

4936.10

57.8366MACD on Close (12,26)Signal on Close (9)DIFF on Close

57.836656.39541.4412


Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008 2009


2010


4936.105250.404129.243090.804758.64014797.14994116.57184607.2886

FEBRUARY 2010



Dow Jones Industrials (US)Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

10,493 10,000 11,000 11,790

NASDAQ (US) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

2,246 2,192 2,310 2,417

StRategy: Proceed to range trade its channel boundaries and raise support stops to recently made lows (perhaps the 32-day MA 10,493 can now be a short term gauge).

StRategy: Proceed to range trade its weekly channel boundaries, perhaps taking some profits at this point then looking for buying support near short (2,246) to medium (2,192) term averages.

The Dow paces with its uptrend channel The Dow Jones Industrials continues to trade within the uptrend channel; momentum has not risen to back up its drive. This may pose as a short term problem and may provide another excuse to show a reaction. Weekly chart studies still show momentum to be waning and that RSI signals do caution that medium term overbought signals persist. This should keep the range trade option open; being too aggressive at the moment may not be the right tactic in such extended circumstances.

NASDAQ keeps to the return-line The NASDAQ stays along the bands of its rising channel, but now finds itself at the higher end. Momentum has been lost as seen by its MACD and RSI, telling us that a correction back to the lower end of its pattern may be seen. Keep track of short term support columns as a high chance for a reaction may be shown into the next couple of days. Allow prices to ease and show a higher low base before looking to reposition.

-500

0

100

50

7000

8000

11000

12000

13000

9000

10000


79.333877.35791.9759


Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008


20102009


10609.6511790.179105.346469.9510303.586910493.20908951.71009855.7490

-100

0

100

50

1200

1400

2000

2200

2400

1600

1800

MACD on Close (12,26)Signal on Close (9)MACD2 on Close

27.993931.3447-3.3508


Sept Oct Nov Dec

2008


20102009


2287.992417.631846.781265.522192.91462246.74981864.69072109.1458

FEBRUARY 2010



S&P 500 (US) Support 1 Support 2 Resistance 1 Resistance 2

1,119 1,100 1,200 1,303

StRategy: A Hold or range trade is issued – looking for entries into pullbacks or dips that effect some narrowing in present overbought levels. A buy back closer to support zones is preferred looking between 1,119 and 1,100.

The SP500 maintains its ranged recovery The SP500 has groomed into a less forceful advance but proceeds to follow a channel range. Quite similar to the Dow, the index has recently swung to a new recent high but its channel has kept prices quite limited in its upward scope. Momentum has also been range-bound and boasting of only brief advances in resonance to its boundaries. RSI and Stochastics readings also show range high readings which should keep the channel range quite solidly intact for the time being. Weekly studies also show a slowdown in upward momentum, this adding to the advisement of prudence over aggressiveness.

-50

0

100

Sept Oct Nov Dec

50

3000

3500

5000

5500

6000

2008

4000

2009

4500


10.577610.54820.0295


3500

4000



1136.031303.04969.52666.791101.39711119.8438955.59671059.0073

2010

FEBRUARY 2010



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