1 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2016. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com . This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. Aspen Energy Policy Forum Peter W. Trelenberg Manager, Environmental Policy & Planning July 24, 2017
Transcript
1
The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2016. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Aspen Energy Policy Forum
Peter W. TrelenbergManager, Environmental Policy & PlanningJuly 24, 2017
2
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
2015 2040
Global Trends Continue to Evolve
+1.8 billionpeople
2xGDP
+25%demand
+10%CO2 emissions
-45%CO2 intensity
Percent
Growth from 2015 Level
ExxonMobil 2017 Outlook for Energy
3
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind/ Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
OECD
Non-
OECD
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind/ Biofuels
Hydro / Geo
Global Demand
2040 By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2015 - 2040
0.9% p.a.
0.7%
1.5%
2.6%0.2%
4.7% 1.4%
-0.1%
2015
ExxonMobil 2017 Outlook for Energy
4
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2020 2040
Billion Tonnes
Energy-related CO2 Emissions Peak in 2030s
Rest of Non OECD
OECD
Sources: ExxonMobil 2017 Outlook for Energy; UNFCCC COP21 Synthesis Report 2015, EM analysis
Range of 3rd party
estimates of Paris
submissions
China
India
5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2014 IEA CurrentPolicies
IEA NewPolicies
17EO IEA 450
ExxonMobil Energy Outlook vs IEA Scenarios
2040 IEA Comparison
Quadrillion BTUs
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2014 IEA CurrentPolicies
IEA NewPolicies
17EO IEA 450
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renew
Source: Estimates based on IEA World Energy Outlook 2016, including adjustments
to common units, ExxonMobil 2017 Outlook for Energy
6
2000 through 2010 EM Energy OutlooksEstimates of 2010 World Energy Demand
• Source: ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy
Worldwide Primary Energy
Range of Estimates vs. Actual Results for 2010
7
Complexity and Scale Limit Rate of Change
Source: IPCC AR5 WG3, Ch 10 (2014)
8
Complexity and Scale Limit Rate of Change
0
250
500
750
Quadrillion BTUs
Global Mix of Fuels
1800 1900 20001850 1950
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Other Renewables
2040
Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960), ExxonMobil 2017 Outlook for Energy
