47
BUILDING TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAM May 28, 2014 ASRAC Pumps Working Group Webinar Meeting LCC, Shipments, and NIA
BUILDING TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAM May 28, 2014
ASRAC Pumps Working Group Webinar Meeting
LCC, Shipments, and NIA
2
Overview
• LCC – Impacts to Individual Consumers – Review updated inputs (including for VT-S)
– Review updated results for ESCC, ESFM, and IL and new results for VT-S
– Results now provided by size ranges
• Shipments Model – Review assumptions
– Present projections
• NIA – Impacts to Nation – Review methodology
– Present results
• National Energy Savings (NES)
• National Net Present Value (NPV)
3
NOPR Rulemaking Stage
Market &
Technology
Screening
Analysis
Engineering
Analysis
Energy Use & End
Use Load
Characterization
Shipments
Analysis
National
Impact
Analysis
Markups for
Equipment
Price
Determination
Life-Cycle
Cost and
Payback
Period Analysis
Manufacturer
Impact
Analysis
Framework
Document
Preliminary
Analysis NOPR
Final
Rule
Regulatory
Impact
Analysis
Employment
Impact
Analysis
Utility
Impact
Analysis
Environmental
Impact
Analysis
4
• Revised distribution channels to account for new channel – Assigned 80% of Pump OEM Distributor End User channel to the new channel to
represent the new market (as opposed to replacement market)
Updated Inputs: Markups Analysis
Channel: From Manufacturer Previous Share of Shipments
New share of Shipments
Pump OEM to Distributor to End User 87% 17% Pump OEM to Distributor to Contractor to End User 0% 70%
Pump OEM to OEM to End User 8% 8%
Pump OEM to End User 2% 2%
Pump OEM to Contractor to End User 1% 1%
Previous Markup New Markup
Baseline 1.50 1.59
Incremental 1.24 1.34
5
Updated Inputs: Energy Use Load Profiles
Previous Wts New Wts LP0 25% 30% LP1 25% 30% LP2 25% 30% LP3 25% 10%
• Revised LP3 weight to make overloading less prevalent
6
Updated Inputs: Annual Operating Hours
• Revised operating hours in “other” sector
Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 5
Cooling Water 2500 3500 5000 6000 7500
Boiler Feed 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Circulation 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Pressure Boost 300 600 1000 2500 4500
Irrigation 300 600 1000 1500 2000
Other 600 940 1500 3300 3300
Revised Other 1000 1500 2000 3000 4000
7
Updated Inputs: Lifetime
Product Class Average Mechanical
Lifetime Average No. Repair
Cycles Average Lifetime
ESCC,1800 31002 0.0 13.9
ESCC,3600 19989 0.0 9.2
ESFM,1800 46874 2.6 21.1
ESFM,3600 40370 2.7 19.0
IL,1800 34039 0.8 15.4
IL,3600 24702 0.9 11.7
VT-S,3600 15929 0.0 10.3
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
ESCC
ESFM
IL
VT-S
8
Updated Inputs: VT-S Sector Weights
• VT-S have less weight in commercial and more weight in
agricultural and municipal than other pump types:
Sector ESCC ESFM IL VT-S Total
Agriculture 10% 10% 10% 31% 12%
Commercial 51% 51% 51% 13% 47%
Industrial 33% 33% 33% 30% 33%
Municipal 6% 6% 6% 26% 8%
9
LCC Results: No Cost Recovery
10
Scenario 1: No Cost Recovery
• Base case cost curve only • No conversion costs are passed on to consumers • Affected consumers purchase pumps meeting the minimum
standard at prices equivalent to those already on the market.
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
110 115 120 125 130 135
MSP
$
C-value
per_0
per_10
per_25
per_40
per_55
per_70
Example – numbers not up to date
11
Average LCC Savings($)
Total Small HP
Large HP Medium HP
12
Average LCC Savings($)
Product Class PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
ESCC,1800 $ 54.79 $ 165.03 $ 272.66 $ 428.03 $ 613.42
Small $ 37.90 $ 83.18 $ 137.91 $ 208.82 $ 282.76
Medium $ 64.71 $ 327.16 $ 559.65 $ 858.66 $ 1,237.34
Large $ 427.96 $ 1,013.20 $ 1,500.00 $ 2,729.64 $ 4,301.43
ESCC,3600 $ 18.99 $ 83.35 $ 142.07 $ 208.59 $ 335.95
Small $ 2.62 $ 7.87 $ 19.75 $ 38.78 $ 69.17
Medium $ 91.37 $ 437.79 $ 690.99 $ 953.75 $ 1,409.81
Large $ 117.93 $ 371.10 $ 815.47 $ 1,280.82 $ 2,809.32
ESFM,1800 $ 47.04 $ 263.52 $ 508.86 $ 877.94 $ 1,344.27
Small $ 5.19 $ 30.16 $ 82.38 $ 170.26 $ 297.30
Medium $ 29.19 $ 393.20 $ 767.66 $ 1,305.34 $ 1,909.68
Large $ 539.17 $ 1,271.26 $ 2,185.49 $ 3,675.57 $ 5,989.93
ESFM,3600 $ 176.95 $ 506.74 $ 901.89 $ 1,215.04 $ 2,014.10
Small $ 0.41 $ 29.43 $ 100.46 $ 159.73 $ 276.45
Medium $ 135.12 $ 560.77 $ 1,047.66 $ 1,449.57 $ 2,408.71
Large $ 1,181.99 $ 2,252.98 $ 3,514.02 $ 4,407.23 $ 7,221.34
IL,1800 $ 43.66 $ 165.58 $ 298.28 $ 469.08 $ 685.73
Small $ 51.71 $ 116.14 $ 169.86 $ 217.58 $ 284.14
Medium $ 16.90 $ 187.08 $ 390.86 $ 794.48 $ 1,306.77
Large $ 3.15 $ 1,429.25 $ 3,319.38 $ 5,362.56 $ 7,778.71
IL,3600 $ 384.05 $ 554.16 $ 702.65 $ 791.45 $ 1,009.35
Small $ 349.18 $ 467.34 $ 554.65 $ 603.95 $ 684.53
Medium $ 493.52 $ 755.07 $ 1,053.88 $ 1,217.71 $ 1,740.78
Large $ 2.08 $ 1,741.61 $ 2,464.57 $ 3,582.83 $ 6,053.27
VT-S,3600 $ 2.08 $ 15.07 $ 109.69 $ 191.30 $ 249.19
Small $ 0.50 $ 10.97 $ 93.38 $ 155.38 $ 196.62
Medium $ 11.56 $ 39.63 $ 207.59 $ 406.82 $ 564.68
Grand Total $ 103.96 $ 250.51 $ 419.45 $ 597.34 $ 893.12
13
Change in Operating Cost (>0) & Purchase Price (<0) by PER
Total Small HP
Large HP Medium HP
14
Operating Cost Savings vs. Purchase Price Change PER 10 PER 25 PER 40 PER 55 PER 70
Δ Op Cost Δ Price Δ Op Cost Δ Price Δ Op Cost Δ Price Δ Op Cost Δ Price Δ Op Cost Δ Price
ESCC,1800 64 -9 201 -36 309 -36 464 -36 649 -36 Small 48 -11 120 -37 175 -37 246 -37 320 -37
Medium 68 -3 360 -33 593 -33 892 -33 1270 -33
Large 438 -10 1042 -29 1529 -29 2758 -29 4330 -29
ESCC,3600 21 -2 92 -9 151 -9 217 -9 345 -9 Small 3 0 9 -1 21 -1 40 -1 71 -1
Medium 100 -9 485 -47 738 -47 1001 -47 1457 -47
Large 120 -2 383 -12 827 -12 1293 -12 2821 -12
ESFM,1800 49 -2 287 -24 533 -24 902 -24 1368 -24 Small 6 -1 40 -10 92 -10 180 -10 307 -10
Medium 32 -3 432 -39 806 -39 1344 -39 1948 -39
Large 549 -10 1301 -30 2215 -30 3706 -30 6020 -30
ESFM,3600 181 -4 531 -24 926 -24 1239 -24 2038 -24 Small 1 0 33 -4 104 -4 163 -4 280 -4
Medium 141 -6 597 -36 1084 -36 1486 -36 2445 -36
Large 1197 -15 2296 -43 3557 -43 4450 -43 7264 -43 IL,1800 60 -17 214 -49 347 -49 518 -49 735 -49
Small 72 -20 171 -55 224 -55 272 -55 339 -55
Medium 22 -5 213 -26 417 -26 820 -26 1333 -26
Large 4 0 1476 -46 3366 -46 5409 -46 7825 -46 IL,3600 409 -25 611 -57 759 -57 848 -57 1066 -57
Small 380 -31 536 -68 623 -68 672 -68 753 -68
Medium 504 -10 781 -26 1079 -26 1243 -26 1766 -26
Large 6 -4 1777 -35 2500 -35 3618 -35 6089 -35 VT-S,3600 3 -1 27 -12 121 -12 203 -12 261 -12
Small 1 0 23 -12 106 -12 168 -12 209 -12
Medium 15 -3 48 -9 216 -9 415 -9 573 -9
15
Winners / Losers / No Impact (ESCC 1800)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
Small HP
Losers
No Impact
Winners
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
Total
Losers
No Impact
Winners
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
Medium HP
Losers
No Impact
Winners
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
Large HP
Losers
No Impact
Winners
16
Winners / Losers / No Impact
Pump Type W/L/U PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70 ESCC,1800 Winners 16 28 46 57 71
ESCC,1800 Losers 1 3 1 1 1 ESCC,1800 No Impact 83 69 52 42 28
ESCC,3600 Winners 3 9 23 27 30 ESCC,3600 Losers 2 0 0 0 0
ESCC,3600 No Impact 96 91 77 73 70 ESFM,1800 Winners 6 25 46 65 78 ESFM,1800 Losers 0 1 0 0 0
ESFM,1800 No Impact 94 74 54 35 22 ESFM,3600 Winners 13 26 43 50 61
ESFM,3600 Losers 0 0 0 0 0 ESFM,3600 No Impact 87 74 57 50 39
IL,1800 Winners 13 28 40 52 63
IL,1800 Losers 2 3 2 1 1 IL,1800 No Impact 85 69 59 47 36
IL,3600 Winners 26 43 49 53 64 IL,3600 Losers 0 1 0 0 0 IL,3600 No Impact 73 56 50 47 36
VT-S,3600 Winners 1 28 47 52 55 VT-S,3600 Losers 1 12 0 0 0
VT-S,3600 No Impact 98 60 53 48 45
17
Payback Period (Median) Product Class PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
ESCC,1800 3.0 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
ESCC,3600 3.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 ESFM,1800 1.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
ESFM,3600 0.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
IL,1800 3.4 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.0 IL,3600 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3
VT-S,3600 5.8 4.8 0.7 0.4 0.3
Product Class PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
ESCC 1800 1Small 3.2 3.5 1.1 0.4 0.0
ESCC 1800 2Medium 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
ESCC 1800 3Large 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
ESCC 3600 1Small 0.8 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
ESCC 3600 2Medium 4.7 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1
ESCC 3600 3Large 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
ESFM 1800 1Small 3.0 4.4 0.6 0.0 0.0
ESFM 1800 2Medium 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
ESFM 1800 3Large 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
ESFM 3600 1Small 2.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ESFM 3600 2Medium 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
ESFM 3600 3Large 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
IL 1800 1Small 3.5 3.3 2.1 1.3 0.6
IL 1800 2Medium 2.8 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
IL 1800 3Large 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
IL 3600 1Small 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.8 0.7
IL 3600 2Medium 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
IL 3600 3Large 5.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
VT-S 3600 1Small 5.7 4.9 0.7 0.4 0.4
VT-S 3600 2Medium 9.4 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
18
LCC Results: Full Cost Recovery
19
Scenario 2: Full Cost Recovery
• Affected consumers purchase a redesigned version of their previous pump • For costs to be recovered, they must be reflected in the prices of affected
pumps – Increased price used in this LCC scenario based on an annuity that creates zero change in
INPV over the analysis period
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
110 115 120 125 130 135
MSP
$
C-value
per_0
per_10
per_25
per_40
per_55
per_70
Example – numbers not up to date
20
Average LCC Savings($)
Total Small HP
Large HP Medium HP
21
Average LCC Savings($)
Product Class PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
ESCC,1800 $ 44.00 $ 144.62 $ 203.64 $ 267.48 $ 298.44
Small $ 23.65 $ 68.02 $ 73.07 $ 71.96 $ 34.57
Medium $ 64.30 $ 288.08 $ 479.30 $ 652.09 $ 765.25
Large $ 423.34 $ 1,008.06 $ 1,413.39 $ 2,315.91 $ 3,503.09
ESCC,3600 $ 16.15 $ 77.67 $ 109.91 $ 146.88 $ 237.83
Small $ 2.49 $ 6.64 $ (4.71) $ (3.86) $ 8.14
Medium $ 74.39 $ 414.39 $ 623.09 $ 820.21 $ 1,161.11
Large $ 116.47 $ 322.28 $ 750.34 $ 1,002.12 $ 2,377.89
ESFM,1800 $ 40.62 $ 228.27 $ 400.83 $ 630.04 $ 924.45
Small $ 3.50 $ 5.17 $ 31.51 $ (2.58) $ (15.19)
Medium $ 17.74 $ 342.60 $ 606.52 $ 1,007.08 $ 1,419.32
Large $ 530.47 $ 1,264.72 $ 1,992.25 $ 3,169.06 $ 5,189.15
ESFM,3600 $ 166.25 $ 488.91 $ 841.72 $ 1,093.07 $ 1,788.46
Small $ 0.43 $ 13.50 $ 63.26 $ 97.11 $ 181.72
Medium $ 116.56 $ 541.99 $ 970.66 $ 1,287.81 $ 2,113.26
Large $ 1,170.68 $ 2,232.50 $ 3,452.50 $ 4,260.36 $ 6,836.26
IL,1800 $ 45.78 $ 153.81 $ 204.59 $ 231.90 $ 271.27
Small $ 56.35 $ 111.01 $ 115.95 $ 65.21 $ (10.29)
Medium $ 9.30 $ 165.75 $ 195.06 $ 322.58 $ 553.82
Large $ 1.90 $ 1,295.04 $ 2,811.63 $ 4,363.20 $ 6,330.02
IL,3600 $ 390.73 $ 552.89 $ 652.83 $ 670.58 $ 757.80
Small $ 357.26 $ 477.00 $ 516.23 $ 501.15 $ 500.38
Medium $ 497.32 $ 723.79 $ 972.03 $ 1,057.24 $ 1,319.72
Large $ (21.31) $ 1,730.39 $ 2,427.55 $ 3,148.18 $ 5,285.31
VT-S,3600 $ (2.33) $ 7.02 $ 81.15 $ 123.54 $ 130.88
Small $ (1.72) $ 2.51 $ 66.77 $ 93.52 $ 101.34
Medium $ (5.95) $ 34.09 $ 167.41 $ 303.66 $ 308.16
Grand Total $ 100.20 $ 236.19 $ 356.39 $ 451.93 $ 629.85
22
Change in Operating Cost (>0) & Purchase Price (<0) by PER
Total Small HP
Large HP Medium HP
23
Operating Cost Savings vs. Purchase Price Change PER 10 PER 25 PER 40 PER 55 PER 70
Δ Op Cost Δ Price Δ Op Cost Δ Price Δ Op Cost Δ Price Δ Op Cost Δ Price Δ Op Cost Δ Price
ESCC,1800 64 -20 201 -56 309 -105 464 -196 649 -351 Small 48 -25 120 -52 175 -102 246 -174 320 -285
Medium 68 -4 360 -72 593 -113 892 -239 1270 -505
Large 438 -14 1042 -34 1529 -115 2758 -443 4330 -827
ESCC,3600 21 -5 92 -15 151 -41 217 -71 345 -107 Small 3 -1 9 -3 21 -26 40 -44 71 -62
Medium 100 -26 485 -71 738 -115 1001 -181 1457 -296
Large 120 -4 383 -61 827 -77 1293 -291 2821 -443
ESFM,1800 49 -9 287 -59 533 -132 902 -272 1368 -444 Small 6 -3 40 -35 92 -61 180 -182 307 -322
Medium 32 -14 432 -89 806 -200 1344 -337 1948 -529
Large 549 -18 1301 -36 2215 -223 3706 -536 6020 -831
ESFM,3600 181 -15 531 -42 926 -84 1239 -146 2038 -250 Small 1 0 33 -20 104 -41 163 -66 280 -98
Medium 141 -24 597 -55 1084 -113 1486 -198 2445 -331
Large 1197 -26 2296 -63 3557 -104 4450 -189 7264 -428 IL,1800 60 -15 214 -61 347 -142 518 -286 735 -463
Small 72 -15 171 -60 224 -108 272 -207 339 -349
Medium 22 -13 213 -47 417 -222 820 -498 1333 -779
Large 4 -2 1476 -181 3366 -554 5409 -1046 7825 -1495 IL,3600 409 -19 611 -58 759 -107 848 -178 1066 -308
Small 380 -23 536 -59 623 -107 672 -171 753 -252
Medium 504 -7 781 -57 1079 -107 1243 -186 1766 -447
Large 6 -27 1777 -47 2500 -72 3618 -470 6089 -803 VT-S,3600 3 -5 27 -20 121 -40 203 -79 261 -130
Small 1 -3 23 -21 106 -39 168 -74 209 -107
Medium 15 -21 48 -14 216 -49 415 -112 573 -265
24
Winners / Losers / No Impact
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
Total
Losers
No Impact
Winners
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
Small HP
Losers
No Impact
Winners
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
Medium HP
Losers
No Impact
Winners
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
Large HP
Losers
No Impact
Winners
25
Winners / Losers / No Impact
Pump Type W/L/U PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70 ESCC,1800 Winners 7 22 28 32 34
ESCC,1800 Losers 10 9 20 25 38 ESCC,1800 No Impact 83 69 52 42 28
ESCC,3600 Winners 2 8 11 13 18 ESCC,3600 Losers 2 1 13 14 12
ESCC,3600 No Impact 96 91 77 73 70 ESFM,1800 Winners 3 17 28 38 46 ESFM,1800 Losers 3 9 18 27 32
ESFM,1800 No Impact 94 74 54 35 22 ESFM,3600 Winners 10 22 35 43 54
ESFM,3600 Losers 3 4 8 7 7 ESFM,3600 No Impact 87 74 57 50 39
IL,1800 Winners 13 25 28 29 29
IL,1800 Losers 2 6 14 24 35 IL,1800 No Impact 85 69 59 47 36
IL,3600 Winners 26 38 43 43 48 IL,3600 Losers 0 5 7 11 17 IL,3600 No Impact 73 56 50 47 36
VT-S,3600 Winners 0 16 41 42 40 VT-S,3600 Losers 2 24 6 10 15
VT-S,3600 No Impact 98 60 53 48 45
26
Payback Period (Median) Product Class PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
ESCC,1800 11.5 5.2 7.3 8.2 10.7
ESCC,3600 38.7 1.5 8.8 6.1 4.5 ESFM,1800 10.3 5.8 7.9 8.9 8.9
ESFM,3600 4.1 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.3
IL,1800 2.7 3.9 6.1 9.2 11.9 IL,3600 0.6 1.4 1.9 2.9 3.8
VT-S,3600 40.3 9.1 2.9 3.7 4.6
Product Class PER10 PER25 PER40 PER55 PER70
ESCC 1800 1Small 12.0 6.3 9.6 10.1 13.1
ESCC 1800 2Medium 0.7 2.6 2.5 3.7 6.5
ESCC 1800 3Large 0.3 0.3 2.3 3.7 3.4
ESCC 3600 1Small 1.1 3.4 20.9 11.8 8.2
ESCC 3600 2Medium 55.3 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8
ESCC 3600 3Large 0.3 2.6 0.9 9.6 1.4
ESFM 1800 1Small 10.5 32.0 13.1 20.6 18.7
ESFM 1800 2Medium 11.4 3.3 5.7 4.5 4.7
ESFM 1800 3Large 0.5 0.4 4.2 4.6 3.0
ESFM 3600 1Small 2.0 11.9 7.1 6.7 5.2
ESFM 3600 2Medium 4.9 1.3 1.8 2.2 2.1
ESFM 3600 3Large 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2
IL 1800 1Small 2.5 4.1 5.6 10.0 16.2
IL 1800 2Medium 6.6 2.4 11.2 9.1 7.5
IL 1800 3Large 5.8 1.5 2.9 3.0 2.5
IL 3600 1Small 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.1 3.9
IL 3600 2Medium 0.1 2.8 1.7 2.3 3.8
IL 3600 3Large 38.2 0.2 0.2 2.7 1.6
VT-S 3600 1Small 36.6 9.0 2.9 3.7 4.4
VT-S 3600 2Medium 196.4 86.9 2.8 3.0 7.1
27
NOPR Rulemaking Stage
Market &
Technology
Screening
Analysis
Engineering
Analysis
Energy Use & End
Use Load
Characterization
Shipments
Analysis
National
Impact
Analysis
Markups for
Equipment
Price
Determination
Life-Cycle
Cost and
Payback
Period Analysis
Manufacturer
Impact
Analysis
Framework
Document
Preliminary
Analysis NOPR
Final
Rule
Regulatory
Impact
Analysis
Employment
Impact
Analysis
Utility
Impact
Analysis
Environmental
Impact
Analysis
28
Shipments Analysis
• Purpose
• To estimate commercial and industrial pump shipments in the base case and standards cases.
• Method
• The shipments model relies on four main sources:
‒ Current shipments data (HI);
‒ Commercial floor space projections (AEO 2014);
‒ Value of manufacturing and agricultural shipments (AEO 2014);
‒ Population (AEO 2014).
• Shipments project driven by growth in these areas.
29
Shipments Analysis: Base Data
• As discussed previously, it is difficult to use
existing sources of market data to identify
pumps relevant to this rulemaking.
• DOE used the DOE/HI Manufacturers
Survey for Fiscal Year 2012 (compiled
March 21, 2014) as the base year shipments
for the analysis.
• DOE notes that the historical census data
shows quantity of imported centrifugal non-
submersible pumps ranging from 9 million to
16 million per year from 2000-2010.
• A market consultant estimated that a large
fraction of these imports would be ESCC
and IL.
• While many of these would be under the
1HP limit, it seems reasonable that
many would not be.
Equipment Category
Total Industry Estimate (Units)
RS-V 49,975
VT-S 104,406
ESCC 171,456
ESFM 44,042
IL 50,424
TOTAL 420,303
Are imported pumps within
the scope of this rulemaking
fully accounted for in HI’s
total industry shipments
estimates?
30
Shipments Analysis: Motors Approach
• The medium electric motors rule
used a shipments model driven by
private fixed investments in
selected equipment.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Ind
ex 2
001=
100
Shipments Index
Private Fixed Investment Index in Selected Equipment and Structure
• DOE tried this approach for pumps using data on historical US
production (shipments) for the relevant equipment classes from the US
Census Bureau.
• DOE was unable to obtain a historical fit as good as that for the motors rule,
especially when selecting equipment that seemed appropriate
• The best fit was with private fixed investment in residential equipment
• DOE believes that the historical data provided in the US Census are not
representative of commercial and industrial pumps
31
Shipments Analysis: Motors Approach
• DOE ran a projection based on private fixed investment in all equipment.
• Shipments index vs. Private fixed investment index:
Shipmentsindex (y) = 1.2427∙FixInvestindex (y) – 19.80349
• Shipments projections (in units) based on private fixed investment projections using:
– 2014 Annual Energy Outlook (2019 – 2040),
– Extrapolations (2040 – 2048).
-20
30
80
130
180
Ind
ex 2
00
0=1
00
Shipments Index
y = 1.24268x - 19.80349 R² = 0.82126
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
60 70 80 90 100 110Ship
men
ts In
dex
20
00
=10
0
Private Fixed Investment Index in Equipment (PPI, 2000=100)
32
• The resulting shipments projections show a tripling of shipments over the analysis period.
• As a result of the uncertainty regarding whether the historical shipments data are representative of the commercial and industrial pumps market, and the relatively steep resulting growth projections (compared to historical trends), DOE looked at alternative shipments methodology.
Shipments Analysis: Motors Approach
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Ship
me
nts
(1
,00
0)
Historical Reference Case High Economic Growth Case Low Economic Growth Case
33
Shipments Analysis: Alternate Approach
• Instead of relying on historical data trends that may not be fully related to the equipment in scope, DOE started with the 2012 shipments provided by HI and projected forward using various indicators/projections in AEO 2014:
‒ Commercial sector: commercial floor space
‒ Industrial sector: value of manufacturing shipments
‒ Agricultural sector: value of agriculture, mining, and construction shipments
‒ Municipal sector: population
Sector % FY 2012 Shipments
Commercial 47% 197,542
Industrial 33% 138,700
Agricultural 12% 50,436
Municipal 8% 33,624
TOTAL 100% 420,303
• For the initial year (2012), DOE distributed total shipments into sectors using estimates from the LCC
‒ The distribution of sectors changes over time as a result of each sector’s projection
34
Shipments Analysis: Alternate Approach
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Ship
me
nts
(1
00
0s)
Year
Total Commercial Industrial Agricultural Municipal
Total 2041-2048 Commercial 2041-2048 Industrial 2041-2048 Agricultural 2041-2048 Municipal 2041-2048
• The resulting shipments projection , which was used in the NIA results that will be presented today, shows less than a doubling of shipments over the analysis period.
Does the industry have any input on which shipments projection seems
more realistic?
35
Shipments Analysis: Equipment Class Breakdown
• DOE used the FY12 total industry shipments by equipment class
estimated by HI to distribute total shipments in each year into the five
equipment types.
• This fraction remains constant over time.
• Some equipment classes (VT-S) have different sector weightings;
DOE could use these and their corresponding projections to change
the distribution of shipments by equipment class over time.
• DOE used the FY12 data collected from manufacturers to distribute
shipments into speeds (1800 vs 3600) and HP ranges.
• These fractions remain constant over time.
Would the fraction of shipments allotted to each equipment class be expected
to change over time?
36
Shipments Analysis: Standards Impacts on Shipments
• Increased pump prices could affect the repair vs. replace decision that the
user makes and could lead to increasing the longevity of less efficient
pumps and decreased shipments.
• No data to quantitatively estimate the impact of increased pump prices
(from higher efficiency standard levels) on shipments.
• Used a price elasticity equal to zero as a default.
37
Shipments Analysis: Results
Equipment Class
Grouping
Annual Shipments
thousand units
2019 2025 2035 2048 Cumulative
over 30-years
ESCC 199 217 245 287 7,264
ESFM 51 56 63 74 1,866
IL 58 54 72 84 2,136
RS-V 58 63 72 84 2,117
VT-S 121 132 149 174 4,423
TOTAL 487 532 602 702 17,806
38
NOPR Rulemaking Stage
Market &
Technology
Screening
Analysis
Engineering
Analysis
Energy Use & End
Use Load
Characterization
Shipments
Analysis
National
Impact
Analysis
Markups for
Equipment
Price
Determination
Life-Cycle
Cost and
Payback
Period Analysis
Manufacturer
Impact
Analysis
Framework
Document
Preliminary
Analysis NOPR
Final
Rule
Regulatory
Impact
Analysis
Employment
Impact
Analysis
Utility
Impact
Analysis
Environmental
Impact
Analysis
39
National Impact Analysis
• Purpose
• For equipment shipped from 2019 to 2048:
– To estimate the National Energy Savings (NES) from new and amended energy
conservation standards at different efficiency levels.
– To estimate the national economic impact for commercial and industrial pump
users (or the Net Present Value (NPV)) from energy conservation standards at
different efficiency levels.
• Method
• DOE calculates national energy savings by multiplying unit lifetime energy savings by projected shipments and accumulating this projected value over the 30 years.
• DOE calculates the NPV by accumulating the difference each year between energy bill savings and increased equipment expenditures for all pumps shipped over the 30 year period.
40
National Energy Savings Flow Diagram
Base Case
Annual Energy
Consumption
2048
Base Case
Annual Energy
Consumption
2021
Base Case
Annual Energy
Consumption
2020
Base Case
Lifetime Energy
Consumption
2019
Shipments
Analysis Standards-
Case Projection
Base-Case
Projection
Base Case
Annual Energy
Consumption
2048
Base Case
Annual Energy
Consumption
2021
Base Case
Annual Energy
Consumption
2020
Standards Case
Lifetime Energy
Consumption
2019
Base-Case
Cumulative
Energy Use
Standards-Case
Cumulative
Energy Use
Site to FFC
Energy
Conversion
National Energy
Savings
41
National Consumer Net Present Value Flow Diagram
Shipments
Analysis Standards-
Case Projection
Energy
Cost
(2019 –
2048)
Base-Case
Projection
Cumulative
Energy Cost
Savings
Cumulative
Non Energy
Cost Increase
Discount
Rate
Net Present
Value
Rep, Maint,
Cost
(2019 –
2048)
Total Install
Cost
(2019 –
2048)
Energy
Cost
(2019 –
2048)
Rep, Maint,
Cost
(2019 –
2048)
Total Install
Cost
(2019 –
2048)
42
National Impact Analysis Inputs
Total Installed Cost Based on the engineering outputs and depending on the efficiency level.
Installation cost not included as it is not expected to vary by efficiency level.
Repair and
Maintenance Costs
Assumed constant repair and constant maintenance costs across efficiency levels –
therefore not included in this analysis.
Annual Energy Use Annual average values per equipment class and efficiency level calculated based on
inputs from the Energy Use Characterization/LCC
Base-Case
Efficiencies
Shipments-weighted efficiencies based on base case efficiency distributions as
presented in the LCC analysis.
Frozen at 2012 and constant across the analysis period.
Standards-Case
Projected
Efficiencies
Roll-up scenario assumed for determining shipment-weighted efficiency for each
standards case.
Frozen at 2012 and constant across the analysis period.
Energy Prices Average prices and projected energy prices from EIA AEO2014 forecasts (to 2040) and
extrapolation to 2048.
Electricity
Conversion Factors
Using an estimate for now; will update later to conversion factors based on NEMS
corresponding to AEO 2014.
Discount Rate 7 percent and 3 percent real from OMB’s Regulatory Analysis Guideline A-4.
Present Year Future expenses are discounted to the year 2014.
National Impact Analysis
43
National Impact Analysis: Trial Standard Levels
TSL Equipment Class Group
Formulation Criteria ESCC ESFM IL RS-V VT-S
1 PER 10 PER 10 PER 10 PER 10 PER 10
2 PER 25 PER 25 PER 25 PER 25 PER 25
3 PER 40 PER 40 PER 40 PER 40 PER 40
4 PER 55 PER 55 PER 55 PER 55 PER 55
5 PER 70 PER 70 PER 70 PER 70 PER 70
• The NIA generally considers Trial Standard Levels (TSLs), which are combination of efficiency levels
• For this analysis, we assumed that each TSL consists of an identical efficiency level for each equipment class
• The working group may wish to select different combinations of efficiency levels to examine together
44
National Impact Analysis
• Cumulative National Energy Savings – Estimated Primary (quads)
Equipment Class TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5
ESCC 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.12 0.22
ESFM 0.00 0.03 0.08 0.16 0.30
IL 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.09 0.14
RS-V N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
VT-S 0.00 0.01 0.04 0.07 0.09
TOTAL 0.02 0.10 0.24 0.44 0.76
45
National Impact Analysis
• Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit, Discounted at 3% (billion 2013$)
Equipment Class TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5
ESCC 0.02 0.17 0.31 0.49 0.88
ESFM 0.01 0.12 0.31 0.63 1.2
IL 0.05 0.12 0.20 0.29 0.45
RS-V N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
VT-S 0.00 0.02 0.17 0.29 0.35
TOTAL 0.08 0.43 0.99 1.7 2.8
46
National Impact Analysis
• Net Present Value of Consumer Benefit, Discounted at 7%
• (billion 2013$)
Equipment Class TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5
ESCC 0.01 0.07 0.13 0.20 0.34
ESFM 0.00 0.04 0.11 0.21 0.38
IL 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.10 0.15
RS-V N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
VT-S 0.00 0.01 0.07 0.12 0.14
TOTAL 0.03 0.17 0.37 0.62 1.0
47
National Impact Analysis: Refinements
• Base case and standards case efficiency projection – Historical data to identify efficiency trends over time?
– Could use trends from motors rulemaking? • Based on market penetration of NEMA Premium motors within the
market for integral alternating current induction motors
• Impeller trimming – What % of shipments are trimmed?
– What is the average power ratio (at BEP) of trimmed to full impeller?
• Users with VSD or other controls – What percent of users have controls?
• We have a few sources of data to review for this
– Will this change over time in the base case or standards case?
– What power reduction factor should be used to account for VSD?
• Efficiency degradation factor – Data that shows decline in efficiency over time?
