Assessing ambition of INDCsREGIONAL TECHNICAL DIALOGUE ON INTENDED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE 2015 AGREEMENT UNDER THE UNFCCC

10-12th of November 2014, Mexico City, Mexico

Markus Hagemann

m.hagemann@newclimate.org

2www.newclimate.org

About NewClimate Institute

Non-profit research institute founded Nov. 2014 by 7 former Ecofys colleaguesOffices in Berlin and Cologne (Germany)Areas of expertise

Climate negotiationsTracking clilmate action Climate and development Climate financingCarbon market mechanisms

Ways to assess mitigation contributions by countries

Comparison

To BAU

To effort sharing

To mitigation potential

Of decarbonisation indicators

To good practice policy package / policy menu

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Comparison to BAU

BAU is counterfactual

BAU includes many different developments

Example Brazil36.1% to 38.9% below BAU in 2020

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Comparison to effort sharing

Large range of effort sharing approaches, e.g. per capita, carbon budgets, equal costs, …

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Comparison to potential

Large uncertainties

Assumptions on base line?Assumptions on cost elements?Model used?

Source: Fekete et al. 2013. Climate change mitigation in emerging economies: From potentials to actions. http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/files/medien/378/publikationen/cc_19_2013_vorabexemplar_fkz_3711_41_120_ueberarbeitet_12_12_13_.pdf

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Comparison to decarbonisation indicators

CO2/kWh

2010 2050

Pledge

Current policy

Required for 2°C

Global average

kWh/cap Pledge

Current policy

Required for 2°C

Global average

2010 2050

Current best practice

Current best practice

Intensity

Activity

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Comparison to low carbon policy package

Possible approach1. Choose area of

intervention2. Identify BP

incentives and barriers

3. Develop benchmarks

4. Rate policy against benchmark

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Policy package (2) – example building sector- energy efficiencyIndicator for incentives Benchmark for evaluating against best

practice• Incentive (regulation, support and information)

for use of efficient appliances, including air conditioning

4: 2-3% per year0: No incentiveMethod: fraction of appliance covered and stringency of the standards (Japanese Top runner or ecodesign directive). If air conditioning is a major consumer, then buidling standards need to be considered)

• Efficiency standards for new buildings for all types of buildings

4: Zero emissions buildings by 20142: Zero emissions buildings by 20200: No trajectory to zero energy buildings

• Incentive for high retrofit rates for all types of existing buildings (for complete retrofit, i.e. full building envelope & upgrade supply system)

4: > 3% per year (average 2010-2020) and >2% afterwards0: < 1 % per year

• Policy for efficiency improvement for other than heating fuel uses (cooking, hot water use)

4: > 3% per year (average 2010-2020) and >2% afterwards0: < 1 % per year

• Level of energy and/or CO2 taxes (applicable to electricity fuel consumption in buildings)

4: tax is > 100% of energy price0: no tax

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Policy package (cont.) – final overview

Source: Climate Action Tracker country assessment example

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Comparison More simple

>>>>>> More complex

To BAU

To effort sharing

To mitigation potential

Of decarbonisation indicators

To good practice policy package / policy menu

Complexity of analysis

Downscale regional BAU

Bottom up development of BAU

Use IPCC effort sharing ranges

Own effort sharing model

Categorization of measures

Bottom up modelling of MACC

Use of existing literature

Development of country specific indicators

Application of existing policy menues

Dev. of counrty spec. policy menues

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Suitable approaches for different types of commitments

  Business as usual (BAU)

Effort sharing

Mitigation potential

Decarboni-sation indicators

Good practice policy package

Inspirational national long term emissions goal

         

National short term emissions target

         

Energy / sectoral targets

         

Highlight policies and projects

         

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LegendPrimarySecondary

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Ways to assess contributions

Comparison Considerations

To BAU • BAU is counterfactual

To effort sharing • Wide rage of possible outcomes

To mitigation potential • Costs compared to a BAU, which is counterfactual

Of decarbonisation indicators • Forward looking, no BAU necessary• Indicators close to actions, specially on sectoral

levelTo good practice policy package / policy menu

• Forward looking, no BAU necessary• How is the package defined?

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Conclusions

Assessing ambition

Allows for comparison of country offers in the international process

Supports countries’ domestic processes for the development of INDCs

Options to assess ambition

All 5 options can provide valuable information to assessing ambition

No silver bullet approach, ideally all are combined

Some approaches might be better suited depending on target types

Data use

Every option can be implemented in a relatively simple or more complex manner

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Thanks for your attention!Gracias por su tiempo!Contact: Markus Hagemann, m.hagemann@newclimate.orgBLOG: http://newclimate.org/2014/10/29/how-to-assess-the-level-of-ambition-of-an-intended-nationally-determined-contribution/

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