Assessing economic and social Assessing economic and social pressure for the control of pressure for the control of

bovine viral diarrhoea virusbovine viral diarrhoea virus

Assessing economic and social Assessing economic and social pressure for the control of pressure for the control of

bovine viral diarrhoea virusbovine viral diarrhoea virus

George J GunnGeorge J Gunn

& Helmut Saatkamp& Helmut Saatkamp

Why do we want to assess Why do we want to assess pressure for pressure for

the control of BVDV ?the control of BVDV ?

Why do we want to assess Why do we want to assess pressure for pressure for

the control of BVDV ?the control of BVDV ?

Because we see a contradiction Because we see a contradiction between what science tells us between what science tells us

and what is happening out there.and what is happening out there.

Why are we examining Why are we examining economic and social economic and social pressure ?pressure ?

Why are we examining Why are we examining economic and social economic and social pressure ?pressure ?

These are always the drivers for These are always the drivers for farm business level farm business level

decisionsdecisions

What have the other speakers What have the other speakers told us?told us?

What have the other speakers What have the other speakers told us?told us?

Fascinating epidemiology of this diseaseFascinating epidemiology of this disease

Pestivirus are an important groupPestivirus are an important group

BVDV often causes serious damage to the bovine BVDV often causes serious damage to the bovine hosthost

It must cause serious income loss to all affected It must cause serious income loss to all affected farm businessesfarm businesses

Examined the different possibilities for controlExamined the different possibilities for control

What have the other speakers What have the other speakers told us?told us?

What have the other speakers What have the other speakers told us?told us?

VaccinesVaccines

Marker vaccinesMarker vaccines

Control strategiesControl strategies

EradicationEradication

Improved testsImproved tests

Virus isolationVirus isolation

and so on………..and so on………..

As scientists we would accept As scientists we would accept that there is strong evidence that:that there is strong evidence that:

As scientists we would accept As scientists we would accept that there is strong evidence that:that there is strong evidence that:

BVDV infections can be a serious welfare problemBVDV infections can be a serious welfare problem

BVDV significantly damages the farm businessBVDV significantly damages the farm business

BVDV results in less efficient use of farm resourcesBVDV results in less efficient use of farm resources

BVDV results in society paying higher food pricesBVDV results in society paying higher food prices

So after the last two days who could So after the last two days who could blame the audience for thinking that blame the audience for thinking that there could not be a more important there could not be a more important

disease than BVD?disease than BVD?

So after the last two days who could So after the last two days who could blame the audience for thinking that blame the audience for thinking that there could not be a more important there could not be a more important

disease than BVD?disease than BVD?

So how are our farm businesses So how are our farm businesses responding to this serious threat?responding to this serious threat?So how are our farm businesses So how are our farm businesses

responding to this serious threat?responding to this serious threat?

Excellent example of the Scandinavian countriesExcellent example of the Scandinavian countries Norway, Finland, Sweden & Denmark close to eradicationNorway, Finland, Sweden & Denmark close to eradication

Iceland freeIceland free Shetlands eradicated BVDShetlands eradicated BVD Now who else?Now who else? Germany, Italy, Austria, Scotland and France have Germany, Italy, Austria, Scotland and France have

started regional programmesstarted regional programmes The Netherlands, Portugal and mainland UK have The Netherlands, Portugal and mainland UK have

voluntary programmesvoluntary programmes Most EU countries have some initiativesMost EU countries have some initiatives

BUT………….BUT………….BUT………….BUT…………. Although these are great examples they do not include Although these are great examples they do not include

many of Europe’s cattlemany of Europe’s cattle Most European farmers do not know what BVD stands Most European farmers do not know what BVD stands

for for (probably as sister football team to PSV :>)) (probably as sister football team to PSV :>))

Most European veterinary surgeons do not appear to Most European veterinary surgeons do not appear to think BVD is important think BVD is important more interested in dogs, catsmore interested in dogs, cats & rabbits & rabbits

The public certainly do not know what B VD stands for The public certainly do not know what B VD stands for a B list sexually transmitted disease?a B list sexually transmitted disease?

What are the public interested in?What are the public interested in?What are the public interested in?What are the public interested in?

Increasingly interested in cattle welfareIncreasingly interested in cattle welfare

Large variation between different countries and regionsLarge variation between different countries and regions

Interested in zoonotic diseases: BSE, salmonella etc.Interested in zoonotic diseases: BSE, salmonella etc.

Interested in dramatic media images such as FMD & TSEsInterested in dramatic media images such as FMD & TSEs

Really BVD only scores for welfareReally BVD only scores for welfare

What interests the farmers?What interests the farmers?What interests the farmers?What interests the farmers?

Farm resources are limitedFarm resources are limited

Disease is often not top of the list for allocation of scarce Disease is often not top of the list for allocation of scarce resourcesresources

Farmers award higher priorities to other matters such as Farmers award higher priorities to other matters such as labour costs and animal feedlabour costs and animal feed

Diseases with obvious production and welfare links such Diseases with obvious production and welfare links such as mastitis and lameness are more likely to attract as mastitis and lameness are more likely to attract attentionattention

What interests the farmers?What interests the farmers?What interests the farmers?What interests the farmers?

BVD is rather occult and BVD is rather occult and

so is easy to ignoreso is easy to ignore

So where does BVD fit in?So where does BVD fit in?So where does BVD fit in?So where does BVD fit in?

BVD occupies an intermediate status as an BVD occupies an intermediate status as an endemic disease endemic disease

This may be less than it deservesThis may be less than it deserves OIE status for CSF raises awareness but OIE status for CSF raises awareness but

then the disease does that for itselfthen the disease does that for itself (HS) (HS)

Immunosuppression, depressed fertility and Immunosuppression, depressed fertility and congenital abnormalities are all non-specificcongenital abnormalities are all non-specific

Our group have focussed on farm Our group have focussed on farm business level economic business level economic

arguments using existing modelsarguments using existing models

Our group have focussed on farm Our group have focussed on farm business level economic business level economic

arguments using existing modelsarguments using existing models

Output of Scottish beef BVD modelOutput of Scottish beef BVD modelOutput of Scottish beef BVD modelOutput of Scottish beef BVD model

Year

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Susceptible

Immune

Transient

PI

Nu

mb

er

of

an

ima

ls

Output of Scottish beef BVD modelOutput of Scottish beef BVD modelOutput of Scottish beef BVD modelOutput of Scottish beef BVD model

Year

Losses d

ue

to B

VD

(€ p

er

co

w)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Susceptible

Immune

Transient

PI

Nu

mb

er

of

an

ima

ls

Losses d

ue

to B

VD

(£

per

co

w)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Beef herd breakdown of costsBeef herd breakdown of costs Total Cost = £38 per cow p.aTotal Cost = £38 per cow p.a..

Beef herd breakdown of costsBeef herd breakdown of costs Total Cost = £38 per cow p.aTotal Cost = £38 per cow p.a..

Calf Immune Suppression (7%)

Other Calf Losses (5%)

PI Calves (18%)

Abortions (9%)

Reproductive Loss in Cows (17%)

Reproductive Loss in Heifers (28%)

PI Cows & Heifers (16%)

(CF)

ExamplesExamplesExamplesExamples

Results of surveyResults of survey

Use UK model to compare results for Use UK model to compare results for different countries/regions different countries/regions

Use Dutch model to examine Use Dutch model to examine benefit/cost ratios for controlbenefit/cost ratios for control

Survey for critical parameter estimatesSurvey for critical parameter estimatesSurvey for critical parameter estimatesSurvey for critical parameter estimates

Herd sizeHerd size PI prevalence among purchasedPI prevalence among purchased Biosecurity riskBiosecurity risk Milk priceMilk price Livestock valueLivestock value Veterinary costsVeterinary costs Blood test costBlood test cost Bulk milk test costBulk milk test cost

Herd Size

Herd Size

Milk Price

Milk Price

Livestock Value

Livestock Value

Prevalence PIs

Prevalence of PIs among purchased cattle

Biosecurity

Risk of biosecurity breakdown

Veterinary cost

Cost of veterinary input

Blood sample

Cost of blood test

Bulk milk cost

Cost of bulk milk testing

Herd Size

Herd Size & Milk Price & Livestock Value

Milk Price

Livestock Value

Comparison of losses due to Comparison of losses due to BVDV in different farming BVDV in different farming

systemssystems

Comparison of losses due to Comparison of losses due to BVDV in different farming BVDV in different farming

systemssystems

NPV and loss in €KNPV and loss in €KNPV and loss in €KNPV and loss in €K

UKDuoro,

Portugal Netherlands Norway Italy Germany

Size HI MED MED LO LO HI

Prevalence of PI in purchased animals

MED MED HI LO LO HI

Biosecurity Breakdown HI HI HI LO HI HI

Milk Price LO MED MED MED MED LO

Livestock Value MED MED MED MED MED MED

Veterinary Costs MED LO LO HI LO LO

Home Bred (0) bought in(1) replacemts

0 1 1 1 1 1

NPV - no BVD (k€) 469 € 304 € 304 € 104 € 114 € 475 €

Mean Cost of BVD (k€) 39 € 23 € 24 € 5 € 9 € 42 €

Percentage loss by countryPercentage loss by countryPercentage loss by countryPercentage loss by country

Max % loss Min % loss Mean % lossUK 10.5% 5.4% 8.3%Duoro, Portugal 7.9% 7.0% 7.4%Holland 8.3% 7.6% 8.0%Norway 6.5% 4.4% 5.7%Norway-bought in 5.8% 4.3% 5.2%Italy 9.6% 6.0% 7.9%Germany 9.1% 8.4% 8.7%Fantasia 5.4% 2.2% 3.6%Fantasia-bought in 5.9% 5.4% 5.7%

Percentage losses due to BVD

Dutch benefit/cost ratiosDutch benefit/cost ratiosDutch benefit/cost ratiosDutch benefit/cost ratios

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

10%

50%

Average

90%

0%

100%

Sero-prevalence Dutch situation

open herd with three groups with BVD control

Sero-prevalence Dutch situation

closed herd with three groups without BVD control

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

10%

50%

Average

90%

0%

100%

B/C-ratios control program for different Dutch situations

Def/open/3 Def/closed/3 Def/open/1 Def/closed/1

10 0.05 0 0 050 0.32 0 2.27 0

Average 1.42 0.29 3.41 0.4790 4.51 0.41 9.63 1.99

100 12.42 6.53 29.01 3.46

Benefit/Cost-ratios for

different Dutch situations

Conclusions for Dutch situationConclusions for Dutch situationConclusions for Dutch situationConclusions for Dutch situation

Feasibility BVD control program:Feasibility BVD control program: open herd with single group: worthwhileopen herd with single group: worthwhile open herd with three groups : worthwhile in open herd with three groups : worthwhile in

50% of cases50% of cases closed herd:closed herd:

Only worthwhile for worst case scenariosOnly worthwhile for worst case scenarios However the costs of establishing closed herd not However the costs of establishing closed herd not

included: decide on herd to herd basisincluded: decide on herd to herd basis

Constrained by lack of reliable dataConstrained by lack of reliable dataConstrained by lack of reliable dataConstrained by lack of reliable data

Slowly reliable farm level data is being Slowly reliable farm level data is being established for different countries (FB)established for different countries (FB)

However the economic teams are genuinely However the economic teams are genuinely constrained by the lack of reliable constrained by the lack of reliable informationinformation

Meanwhile they are developing new Meanwhile they are developing new methods to explore the socio-economic methods to explore the socio-economic issues surrounding BVDV (AS & RH)issues surrounding BVDV (AS & RH)

Conclusions 1Conclusions 1Conclusions 1Conclusions 1

An information gap existsAn information gap exists

Our objective must be to provide better Our objective must be to provide better decision support data for stakeholdersdecision support data for stakeholders

for governmentfor government for veterinary practicefor veterinary practice for farmersfor farmers

We need to establish more factsWe need to establish more facts

We need to agree among ourselvesWe need to agree among ourselves

Conclusions 2Conclusions 2Conclusions 2Conclusions 2

More work requires to be done to More work requires to be done to convince decision makers that BVDV convince decision makers that BVDV control is a worthwhile use of resources control is a worthwhile use of resources and deserves a higher priorityand deserves a higher priority

The only way that this can be achieved The only way that this can be achieved is through improved educationis through improved education

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

The Milk Development Council (MDC) funded the dairy cow The Milk Development Council (MDC) funded the dairy cow

research projectresearch project

The Scottish Executive Environment and Rural Affairs The Scottish Executive Environment and Rural Affairs

Department provide SAC with financial support and funded the Department provide SAC with financial support and funded the

projects to develop the methodologies used for this study and projects to develop the methodologies used for this study and

the beef cow projectthe beef cow project

Thank the BVD Thematic Network for inviting me to speakThank the BVD Thematic Network for inviting me to speak

In particular thank our colleagues Alistair Stott, Roger Humphry, In particular thank our colleagues Alistair Stott, Roger Humphry,

John Santarossa and Hybert GroenendaalJohn Santarossa and Hybert Groenendaal

Letter from AmericaLetter from AmericaLetter from AmericaLetter from America

““People never call me because they People never call me because they

are having a good day.are having a good day.

They only call me when they are really pissed-off They only call me when they are really pissed-off

and want to know which “rat-bastard” to sue.”and want to know which “rat-bastard” to sue.”

J. R. 2004J. R. 2004