Assessing Forest Species tolerance and associated risk for growth and survival in
arboreta along Atlantic climate gradient
António H. Correira1*; Christophe Orazio2; M. Helena Almeida1 ; et al.
1.Centro de Estudos Florestais, ISA, Universidade de Lisboa
2.EFI Planted Forests Facility / IEFC
REINFFORCE main aimBuild a research tool to meet the climate
change challenges.
❖Better knowledge of tree species
performance response to future climate
scenarios, improving uncertainty;
❖Test effectiveness of adaptive forest
management;
❖Accompanying Scientific cooperation on
climate change adaptation
REINFFORCE infrastructureTake advantage of the Atlantic network of IEFC and
EFIATLANTIC partners ->compare sites from
longitudes 37 to 57º, under a strongly oceanic
influenced climate
❖12 partner Institutions
❖Arboreta network (38 sites),
❖Demonstration site network (41sites),
❖Common protocols (growth
measurements, phenology, health, etc.).
The arboreta networkAim: expose the same genetic material produced in the same
conditions to various climate/soil contexts.
❖Each of the 38 arboretum is about 2 hectares with 2000
trees;
❖35 species ; 3 provenances/species; 12 trees/ provenance.
❖Arboreta sites represent typical site conditions for managed
forests in each region, with Weather monitoring
❖Sites will be monitored for at least 15 years with
standardized methods.
First results - Survival
• Broadleaf Survival responds to Precipitation Transfer Distance; ConiferSurvival responds to Growing Season Degree Days >5°C (Correia et al, 2018)
Conifer Broadleaf
Estimated Survival
First results - Growth
• Overall growth responds to Annual Dryness Index (Correia et al, 2018)
Estimated Survival
Within-Species variationBLUP for provenance variation from mean estimated Conifer species Survival probability
Thuja plicata
Calocedrus decurrens
Pinus elliotti
Pinus pinea
Risk assessment for Survival (Broadleaf species)
-Under Publication process-
Key messages
❖ A strategical tool for forest adaptation to climate change;
❖key parameters for growth and survival: Transfer Distance for Precipitation, Annual
Dryness Index, Growing Season Degree Days >5⁰C
❖Broadleaf survival at installation (first years) will not present significant loss under
moderate RCP scenario;
❖ Conifer survival will vary accordingly to each Species, yet there is associated risk
even for moderate RCP scenario for mid term projection;
❖ Global risk for growth loss, except for Eucalyptus globulus and gundal.
Building an Interface for knowledge application
In order to facilitate the dissemination of the fitted models and predictions, a mobile
app is being built, focusing on:
❖risk calculation per species
❖Growth and survival estimation under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2080
❖Suggestion of the species presenting best results
❖Species characterisation and silviculture information
Bibliography
❖ Correia, A.H. et al (2018) Early survival and growth plasticity of 33 species planted
in 38 arboreta across Europe Atlantic Area. Forests, 2018, 9(10), 630;
https://doi.org/10.3390/f9100630
❖Orazio, C. et al (2013) Arboretum & Demonstration Site Catalogue – Resource
INFrastructure for monitoring, adapting and protecting European FORests under
Changing climatE. IEFC/EFI-ATLANTIQUE. Bordeaux.
Thank you!
António Henrique Correia - [email protected]
(REsource INFrastructure for monitoring and adapting european
Atlantic FORest under Changing climatE)
http://reinfforce.iefc.net