‘Assessing mitigation pathway risk and uncertainty: case studies in the Netherlands, Kenya and Chile’
Friday 18th November, 12.30 to 14.00
European Union Pavilion, Area D, Blue Zone
In this workshop we will be presenting the TRANSrisk approach to developing low emission transition pathways, and practical application of this work to a ‘post-Paris’ world. Three case
studies will be presented, with the audience invited to participate and give feedback:
• Netherlands: Transition pathways in the livestock sector
• Chile: Emissions and air pollution reduction in Santiago de Chile
• Kenya: the role of renewable energy in transition pathways
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TRANSRISK S IDE EVENT
Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies
18th November 2016 @ COP22, Marrakech
Assessing mitigation pathway risk and
uncertainty: case studies in Netherlands,
Kenya and Chile
Speakers:
• Jenny Lieu (Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex, UK)
• Eise Spijker (JIN Climate and Sustainability, the Netherlands)
• Annela Anger-Kraavi (Cambridge Econometrics, UK)
• Matthew Halstead (Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands)
• Tim Suljada (Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Sweden)
• Luis E. Gonzales-Carrasco ( Pontifical Catholic University, Chile)
14 CASE STUDY COUNTRIES
America1. Canada (SPRU)2. Chile (CLAPESUC)
Europe3. Sweden (SEI)4. Netherlands (JIN)5. UK (SPRU)6. Poland (IBS)7. Austria (Uni Graz)8. Switzerland (ETHZ)9. Spain (BC3)10. Greece (NTUA/ UPRC)
Africa11. Kenya (SEI)
Asia12. China (SPRU)13. India (SPRU)14. Indonesia (SEI)
1. Netherlands: livestock sector
3. Chile: emissions and air pollution in Santiago
2. Kenya: role of renewable energy
Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies
‘Assessing mitigation pathway risk and uncertainty: case studies in
the Netherlands, Kenya and Chile’
18th November 2016 @ COP22, Marrakech
Eise Spijker
JIN Climate & Sustainability
www.jin.ngo
Low Carbon Transition Pathways
In the LIVESTOCK sector
Annela Anger-Kraavi
CE
www.camecon.com
A LOW CARBON TRANS IT ION IN THE
DUTCH L IVESTOCK SECTOR
Agricultural sector in the Netherlands
- 2nd agriculture exporter in the world (in EUR)
- 4th milk producer in EU (7th herd size)
- Largest veal producer in EU
- 5th largest pig herd in EU
*Livestock densities in EU in 2013 (in LSU / ha)
Source: Eurostat
Livestock sector - ISSUES
- Nutrient accumulation (manure)
- ‘Mega-stables’, Animal-human health
- Low milk & meat prices
CH4
N2O
CO2
70%
70%
4%
NH3
PM10
NOX
87%
27%
6%
Note: emissions percentages are share of national total emissions of that particular pollutant
TRANS IT ION OPTIONS FOR THE DUTCH
L IVESTOCK SECTOR (2030)
Low Carbon Transition Pathways
Primary objective:
Low GHG
Reduce livestock
Reduce animal protein consumption
Improve conversion efficiency
Promote low-GHG feeds
Promote energy saving
Produce renewable energy
Promote manure management
IDEA REFERENCE: P INK F LOYD
Observation
NOT all pathways target multiple objectives at the same time
Case study focus on 2 pathways
• Reduction Livestock (RL)
• Integrated Man. Mngmt (IMM)
Goal
• Maximize SYNERGIES
• Minimize TRADE-OFFS
WE NEED MULTI-PURPOSE PATHWAYS! !
2030 GHG targets
- GHG (non-ETS sectors) = -35% (2005)
- CH4 (national) = -33% (2005)
IMPACT 2 PATHWAYS AT NATIONAL LEVEL
RL VS. IMM
2.500.000 1.500.000
RL – requires 37,5% reduction of cattle
IMM – requires
Cattle manure
51.8 mln. ton
≈ 10.000 farm-
scale plants
CAPEX
≈ 5,2 bln. EUR
Pig manure
11.6 mln. ton
≈ 60 industrial
scale plants
CAPEX
≈ 0,6 bln. EUR
A SSESS ING S IDE-EFFECTS OF 2 PATHWAYS
ENVIRONMENT
* Leakage?
Contribution to target IMM RL
Renewable energy
PJ + 0
GHG emission reduction
CH4 – enteric fermentation 0 +*
CH4 – manure management + +*
CO2 – avoidance of fossil fuel + 0
Ammonia emissions
Stables & storage + +
Application to soil 0 +
Nutrient excretion
Nitrates (N) 0 +
Phosphates (P) 0 +
A SSESS ING S IDE-EFFECTS OF 2 PATHWAYS
SOCIO-ECONOMIC & OTHER
* Leakage?
Possible side-effects IMM RL
Domestic availability of ‘cheap’ soil nutrients - -
Animal health – air quality + 0
Animal health – use of antibiotics + +*
Animal welfare – grazing time (cattle only) + / - + / -
Animal welfare – stable space + 0
Human health + +*
International competitiveness livestock sector - -
Impact on GDP + / - -
Employment + -
Role of modelling:
1. Assess effect of pathway at national scale
2. Quantify (yet) (un)known side-effects
3. Reducing risks & uncertainties for stakeholders
Modelling in this case study:
- Macro-econometric Energy-Environment- Economy model - E3ME
- Modelling scenarios and comparing them with a selected reference
- Scenarios are what-if stories and developed with stakeholders
- Outputs to inform policy and industry stakeholders
MODELLING L IVESTOCK PATHWAYS
Is it ok if we:
Swap GHG emission reduction for lower GDP (growth)?
Improve animal welfare but reduce local air quality?
Jeopardize food security to meet national environmental goals?
Which side-effects did we miss?
Other effects to consider for livestock sector in 1) emerging economies
and 2) LDCs?
QUESTIONS TO AUDIENCE?
Handout with more background information on this case study is
available on:
http://jin.ngo/8-events/162-transrisk-cop22
http://cdn.jin.ngo/images/jin/publications/JIQ_Special_COP22_TRANS
risk_livestock_pathways.pdf
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies
‘Assessing mitigation pathway risk and uncertainty: case studies in
the Netherlands, Kenya and Chile’
18th November 2016 @ COP22, Marrakech
Matthew Halstead
(Francesco Dalla Longa and Bob van der Zwaan)
Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN)
The potential to implement
Kenya’s INDC
Tim Suljada
(Oliver Johnson, Hannah Wanjiru, Mbeo Ogeya)
Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)
Provide a sample of our scenario analysis results which complement ongoing
broader research in Kenya
Purpose of the analysis:
• Explore the necessity of large-scale RE deployment with respect to Kenya’s
GHG abatement ambitions (INDC):
Focus on power and energy demand sectors
• Compare the Kenya INDC emissions projection with a range of climate policy
scenarios up to 2030; make projections beyond to 2050.
PURPOSE
• Kenya’s BAU emissions projections from the Second National Communication
• Uncertainty in LULUCF data, thus excluded from our analysis (right hand chart)
• 30% emissions reduction compared to BAU in INDC; 20% reduction excl. LULUCF
• We focus on blue area in our analysis – energy and power sector
KENYA’ S INDC
0
30
60
90
120
150
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
[MtC
O2e
]
LULUCF Agriculture Energy & Power
Transportation Industry & Waste BAU
NDC
0
30
60
90
120
150
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
[MtC
O2e
]
BAU excl. LULUCF NDC excl. LULUCF
EMISS ION TRAJECTORIES: A LL SCENARIOS
• Scenarios from global TIAM-ECN work. Starting point for other scenarios relevant to Kenya
• 20% emissions reduction in TIAM-ECN: NDC scenario excl. LULUCF (30% reduction in Kenya INDC)
• INDC target plausible from an energy system and cost-optimality perspective
• Additional costs in 2050 of US$16 bln annually in NDC scenario (Kenya GDP (2015) is 63 bln US$)
• Energy consumption currently dominated by use of biomass and oil (imported)
• In REF scenario (no GHG mitigation policies) mostly coal and oil products
• In NDC scenario coal and nuclear constrained; large role for Geothermal and Biomass
RESULTS:
F INAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION [EJ]
2010
Why is biomass and charcoal
important in Kenya?
Graphic: Oliver Johnson
Chart: Ministry for Environment, Water and
Natural Resources
Consumption (tonnes/yr)
Sustainable supply
(tonnes/yr)
Deficit (tonnes/yr)
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
2000 2005 2010 2020An
nu
al
su
pp
ly/c
on
su
mp
tio
n (
ton
nes
/year)
Year
Projected annual biomass (wood & charcoal) energy consumption and supply
Biomass
production
Charcoal
conversion
Transportation
Wholesale
Retail
Consumer
• Wood and charcoal is estimated at 68% of
final energy consumption
• Charcoal consumption is much higher than
sustainable supply
• GHG emissions reduction opportunities in
value chain, but it is complex
What are the incentives for change for actors in the value chain?
How can actors and networks support innovation towards sustainable charcoal?
• Kenya’s NDC target is achievable with a timely
deployment of RE; deeper emission reductions possible
• Complex and challenging societal shift going beyond
energy sector e.g. sustainable charcoal
KEY MESSAGES
Charcoal production technologies: brick kiln, traditional earth kiln and improved earth kiln
respectively
• How could Kenya attract private capital to
finance INDC implementation? What support
other than financial is needed? Who should
provide this support?
• What other factors should we be considering in
our scenarios and case study?
NEXT STEPS/OPEN QUESTIONS
Transitions Pathways and Risk Analysis for Climate Change
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies
‘Assessing mitigation pathway risk and uncertainty: case studies in
the Netherlands, Kenya and Chile’
18th November 2016 @ COP22, Marrakech
Luis Edwin Gonzales Carrasco
Economist
Clapes-UC Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile
Cities Approach
Santiago de Chile: CO2 and Air
quality
I S C O N C EN TRAT ED C H I LE ?
4 1 % O F C H I LEAN PO PULAT IO N L I V E S IN S ANT IAGO
MOTIVATION
CHILE INDC COMMITMENT
Source: INDC Chile
MOTIVATION
CHILE INDC COMMITMENT
Art 2.6 Chile’s work on short lived
climate pollutants
ADIT IONAL COMMITMENT ON B LACK
CARBON ACTION
Source: INDC Chile
STRUCTURE OF CO2 EMITTERS AROUND
CHILE 2012
Tarapacá
Antofagasta Atacama
Coquimbo
Valparaíso
SANTIAGO
O'Higgins
Maule
Biobío
La Araucanía
Los Ríos
Los Lagos
Aysén
Magallanes y de la Antártica Chilena Total: 8,813 companies
1. Natural resource and environment
• GHG emitted by sector
CONTEXTUAL FACTORS: PRIORIT IES,
CONFL ICTS AND SYNERGIES (2 )
INCREAS ING ANNUAL TEMPERATURE IN
SANTIAGO IS AT LEAST 1,7°C
Source: Gaurrud PNUD 2016
PM TRAJECTORY AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES
1989-2015
Source: Own elaboration with MMA data
HOW CAN MODEL MEMO SHOW FUTURE
PATHS OF EMISS ION AND BENEF ITS?
1)What is a better way to relate global emissions
mitigations benefits with local emission
problems?
2)For the future, how can we incorporate local
issues in the climate change policy strategy?
CHALLENGES AND QUESTIONS TO THINK
ABOUT
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HOW TO CONTACT US (1/2)
Netherlands
Swap GHG emission reduction for lower GDP (growth)?
Improve animal welfare but reduce local air quality?
Jeopardize food security to meet national environmental goals?
Which side-effects did we miss?
Other effects to consider for livestock sector in: emerging economies, LDCs?
QUESTIONS TO AUDIENCE
Kenya
• How could Kenya attract private capital to finance INDC implementation? What
support other than financial is needed? Who should provide this support?
• What other factors should we be considering in our scenarios and case study?
Chile
1) What is a better way to relate global emissions mitigations benefits with local
emission problems?
2) For the future, how can we incorporate local issues in the climate change policy
strategy?