Assessing savannas with the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems
Dr Lucie Bland
The University of Melbourne
Savanna Science Network 2016
@LucieMBland What is an ecosystem and ecosystem collapse?
• Tansley (1935): biotic assemblage + abiotic environment
+ interactions + physical extent.
• We are working on a global classification.
• Collapse:
- Ecosystems decline in quality and quantity.
- Transformation of identity, loss of defining features and/or
replacement by a novel ecosystem.
- Bounded thresholds in key defining features.
@LucieMBland Red Listing savannas
• Open and closed savannas of Venezuela
(Version 1.0).
• Two savannas in El Salvador (Crespin et al. 2015).
• Closed-source assessments in Colombia and Brazil (2015).
• Coolibah Black Box Woodland (Keith et al. 2013).
@LucieMBland Coolibah Black Box woodland
• Classification.
• Distribution.
• Characteristic native biota.
• Abiotic environment.
• Key processes.
• Threats.
• Collapse definition.
Mature Regenerating
@LucieMBland Criteria A & B
• Criterion A: Decline in distribution
- A1: 33-58% decline over 50 years: Endangered (Vulnerable-Endangered).
- A2: Complex trends in future clearing and water availability. Data Deficient.
- A3: Historic decline of 65% (50-70%) Vulnerable.
• Criterion B: Restricted distribution
- EOO: 266,400 km2
- AOO: 1193 grid cells
- Locations: 5+.
- Least Concern.
@LucieMBland Criteria C & D
• Criterion C: Environmental degradation
- C1: Median flow declined by 54-60%. Endangered.
- C2: No future projections. Data Deficient.
- C3: 54-60% decline. Vulnerable.
• Criterion D: Biotic disruption
- Vegetation responses to grazing, changes in structure,
abundance of invasive plants (Phyla canescens).
- Insufficient data available on these processes.
- Data Deficient under criteria D1, D2 and D3.
• Criterion E: Ecosystem Viability Analysis
- Not Evaluated.
@LucieMBland Criterion E
• Ecosystem Viability Analysis:
- Predict variable for which collapse threshold has been defined.
- Incorporate stochasticity in ecosystem processes.
- Predict over the same 50-100 year horizon as other criteria.
- Incorporate future scenarios of ecosystem dynamics.
- Scale 0.1-1,000 km.
Probability of ecosystem collapse:
CR ≥ 50% within 50 years
EN ≥ 20% within 50 years
VU ≥ 10% within 100 years
Edge effects
@LucieMBland Conclusions
• IUCN Red List of Ecosystems is a scientific and practical risk assessment
protocol.
• Sadly, savannas under-represented on the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems.
• Develop case studies or large scale assessments, in particular including data
on ecosystem function.
• Links with management, land-use planning, ecosystem services, and
species threat status.
[email protected] www.lucieblandresearch.wordpress.com
www.iucnredlistofecosystems.com
Funded by: ARC LP130100435.
Thanks to: Emily Nicholson, Tracey Regan, David Keith, Nick Murray, Jon Paul Rodríguez.
Questions?