Assessing the impact of megatrends onyour company

frederic de meyerinstitute for future insightsifi.frederic@gmail.com

Frederic De Meyer• founder institute for future insights• manager market & business intelligence Cisco Europe

• Previously:– business development manager, Eastern & Central Europe, Cisco– senior consultant, benelux, IDC Research– senior public relation account manager, Shandwick PLC– Conference director ICT & telecommunications, education companies

EFE and IIR

Joost Drieman• Owner Marix International NV• Director Market & Business Intelligence Cisco Europe• Visiting lecturer for strategic intelligence at Vlerick Business

School (BE), Nyenrode University (NL), Cox Business School (USA)

• Previously:– VP Marketing & Business DevelopmentTelindus– Expert/reviewer at the European Community (DG information Society)– Director Business Development E-commerce for EMEA Compaq– Director of Tandem’s Virtual Reality Competency Centre Tandem Computers– Director Interactive Initiatives UB Networks

• Introduction to Megatrends exercise

Why you need to look at megatrends?

What exactly is a megatrend?

Where does this exercise fit in your corporate strategy?

Examples of how companies benefit from or are affected by megatrends

Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends, how to make sure your company is prepared? How to identify Megatrends

How to select Megatrends to discuss

How to organize and run Think Tank sessions

How to draw strategic conclusions

How to communicate the findings

Final advice

• In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends

Agenda

Will your company survive the next 20 years?

What happens if you don’t look ahead?

Cat

Dog

How looking at Megatrends can benefit companies

• Peter Bisson, Director McKinsey:– Capture market opportunities,

– Test risks, and

– Spur innovation.

• Copenhagen Institute of Future studies:– Basis for innovation process

– Basis for scenario planning

– Basis for Early Warning Systems

• Matthias Horx, Futurist:– Better decision making in strategic management.

– Quicker and more precise innovation generation

The curve of pursuit

Agenda• Introduction to Megatrends exercise

Why your company needs to look at megatrends?

What exactly is a megatrend?

Where does this exercise fit in your corporate strategy?

Examples of how companies benefit from or are affected by megatrends

Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends, how to make sure your company is prepared? How to select Megatrends to discuss

How to organize and run Thiink Tank sessions

How to draw strategic conclusions

How to communicate the findings

Summary advise

• In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends

What exactly IS a megatrend?

• Long-lasting

• Amplifying

• Disruptive shift

• Impacts major part of society

• ... Looks inevitable (not prone to fashion, taste, mood changes)

• Not an event

Agenda• Introduction to Megatrends exercise

Why your company needs to look at megatrends?

What exactly is a megatrend?

Where does this exercise fit in your corporate strategy?

Examples of how companies benefit from or are affected by megatrends

Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends, how to make sure your company is prepared? How to select Megatrends to discuss

How to organize and run Think Tank sessions

How to draw strategic conclusions

How to communicate the findings

Summary advise

• In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends

Predictions

Threats-irrelevance;

- new competitors

Opportunities- business Model Innovation;

- gain efficiency, competitiveness

Opportunities-go-to-market innovation;- new products/services

Threats-miss the boat;

- existing competion

Which role should the megatrend exercise play in your corporate strategy?

Scenario Planning

MegatrendsCorporate Strategy

Trends

Corporate Execution (tactics)

FashionTastes

CommunitiesOpinion makers

Mood

Lobby; Mood;

Adoption; Regulation

Black Swans

EnvironmentDemographic shifts

RegulationsMacro-economy

Political shifts

Frederic De Meyer

...but be careful with predictions...

Threats-irrelevance;

- new competitors

Opportunities- business Model

Innovation;- gain efficiency, competitiveness

Opportunities-go-to-market

innovation;- new

products/servicesThreats

-miss the boat;- existing

competion

Scenario

Planning

Megatrends

Corporate

Strategy

Trends

Corporate

Execution

(tactics)

FashionTastes

Communities

Opinion makersMood

Lobby; Mood;

Adoption; Regulatio

n

Black Swans

Environment

Demographic shifts

Regulations

Macro-economyPolitical

shifts

Frederic De Meyer

Predictions

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." - Marshal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers” - Thomas Watson (IBM) 1943

“We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out” - Decca Recording Co. rejecting The Beatles, 1962

“Everything that can be invented has been invented”- Charles H. Duell, Commissioner US Office of Patents, 1899

“640k ought to be enough for anybody” – Bill Gates, 1981

“There is no reason why someone would want a computer in their home” – Ken Olson, founder Digital Equipment, 1977

Threats-irrelevance;

- new competitors

Opportunities- business Model Innovation;

- gain efficiency, competitiveness

Opportunities-go-to-market innovation;- new products/services

Threats-miss the boat;

- existing competion

Scenario Planning

MegatrendsCorporate Strategy

Trends

Corporate Execution (tactics)

FashionTastes

CommunitiesOpinion makers

Mood

Lobby; Mood;

Adoption; Regulation

Black Swans

EnvironmentDemographic shifts

RegulationsMacro-economy

Political shifts

What the megatrend exercise is all about

Threats-irrelevance;

- new competitors

Opportunities- business Model Innovation;

- gain efficiency, competitiveness

MegatrendsCorporate Strategy

EnvironmentDemographic shifts

RegulationsMacro-economy

Political shifts

Frederic De Meyer

Agenda• Introduction to Megatrends exercise

Why your company needs to look at megatrends?

What exactly is a megatrend?

Where does this exercise fit in your corporate strategy?

Examples of how companies benefit from or are affected by megatrends

Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends, how to make sure your company is prepared? How to select Megatrends to discuss

How to organize and run Think Tank sessions

How to draw strategic conclusions

How to communicate the findings

Summary advise

• In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends

• Trend: Water shortage, corporate citizenship

– Coca ColaFrom 2003-2006 Coca Cola continued water spill and mismanagement in Indian regions subject to water shortage. This resulted in boycott and negative publicity. Since they have re-worked processes and now receive annual price for Social Responsibility.

• Trend: Responsible buying

– General MotorGeneral Motors continued investing in the gass-devoring Hummer while consumers shifted to cheaper, more ecological spending. This resulted in a pummeting sales for GM, negative image and publicity.

Companies that didn’t see new trends coming...

Companies that grew new opportunities based on megatrends

• Trend: Rising middle class in Emerging

– Tata Nano CarBenefit from rising middle-class in India who want cheap, no-thrill car to replace motorbikes and obtain ‘car-driver’ status

• Trend: Ageing population, talent scarcety

– Cisco Health PresenceLess mobile but growing elderly population will need remote access to health. Less young people will lead to talent scarcity, remote doctors could be located anywhere in the world.

• Trend: Mass customization, Do it Yourself

– Nike and many many othersOffer multiple customization possibilities

Companies that built new business models based on megatrends...

• Trend: Global Grid, desintermediation, crowdsourcing

– Peer-to-peer lendingCompanies like Prosper and Zopa organize peer-to-peer lending, making the task of a bank redundant.

– Fan FundingCompanies like Sellaband and Sonicangels enables anounymous funding of musicians for a share of potential revenue, making the intervention of music label companies redundant.

– CrowdsourcingMarketing, advertisement, innovation, problem solving, consumer-generated design, ... Crowdsourcing moves into all segments

Companies that shaped their organization and vision to megatrends

• Trend: Sustainability, Ageing Polulation, Urbanization, Rising middle-class, ...

– SiemensCommunication on how each of Siemens’ Business Unit is responding to a specific megatrend challenge... Very effective corporate branding.

• Trend: Ageing Polulation

– GlaxoSmithKlineVision statement completely aligned with Ageing Population trend

‘Do more, feel better, live longer’

Agenda• Introduction to Megatrends exercise

Why your company needs to look at megatrends?

What exactly is a megatrend?

Where does this exercise fit in your corporate strategy?

Examples of how companies benefit from or are affected by megatrends

Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends, how to make sure your company is prepared? How to select Megatrends to discuss

How to organize and run Think Tank sessions

How to draw strategic conclusions

How to communicate the findings

Summary advise

• In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends

Megatrends process

2. Discuss Megatrends in Think

Tanks

3. Build summary conclusions and

recommendations

5. Communicate results internally

and externally

Subtrends ConsequencesDrivers

Inhibitors

Antitrends?

Likeliness

Timeline

Impact on

company

Impact on

ecosystem

1. Identification of Megatrends

Meg atrendsMeg

Identification of Megatrends

• Invite employees to submit

• Internal survey

• Brainstorming

• External consultants

• External individuals

– Linked in

– Crowdsourcing

• Research

Research option: Researching External experts’ assessment of megatrends

Ernst & Young NL

megatrends

CSIRO Compenhagen Institute

for Future Studies

Geert Noels -author of

'Econoshocks'

IBM McKinsey Richard Watson LinkedIn

Cultural / multiethnic

society will lead to

conflict

More from less

(resources)

Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing

(power shift)

Ageing Population technology

Ageing population Personalisation of

product and services

Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity

imperative

Powershift East sustainability

Scarcety of natural

resources

Divergent demographics

between rich and poor +

impact on health

Technological

development

New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid

(connectedness)

Global Connectiviy (>

fear)

consumer power

Individualization More people on the

move (mobility - job &

geographical)

Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more

informed and

empowered)

Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East

Climate iWorld (digital & natural

convergence)

Individualization New capitalism corporate social

responsibility

The Market State (govts

vs globalization)

Environment demography

Islam grows, Christianity

fades

Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaning

More wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resources

Technology impacts more

parts of daily life

Acceleration increasing complexity

Global transport will ever

increase

Network organizing

(network-centricity)

Urbanization

Analyzing 338 responses to a LinkedIn question about Megatrends

26.8% technology (collaboration, increased efficiency, cloud/virtualization, brainstorming (social media), smart

cities3D, nanotechs, mobile, augmented reality, new user interfaces, do it yourself, SaaS

13.7% sustainability, corporate responsibility, green tech

12.5% consumer power (24/7, consumerism, meaning, less is more, buy local, customization, online retail, transparancy

10.1% shift to East (innovation outside of US, decline of West, rising middle class, decline of Dollar

9.5% demography

4.8% meaning (return of ideology, increasing empathy

4.8% scarcity of resources (water

4.8% increasing complexity

3.0% online learning, for-profit universities

1.8% cost cutting

1.8% risk aversion

1.8% simplicity

1.8% Innovation, entrepreneurship

1.2% gov 2.0

0.6% insourcing

0.6% simplexity

0.6% Wealth/poverty

(Question asked by Andreas von der Heydt, director at L’Oréal)

External experts’ assessment of megatrends – group in themes

Ernst & Young NL

megatrends

CSIRO Compenhagen Institute

for Future Studies

Geert Noels -author of

'Econoshocks'

IBM McKinsey Richard Watson - author

of 'Future Files'

LinkedIn

Cultural / multiethnic

society will lead to

conflict

More from less

(resources)

Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing

(power shift)

Ageing Population technology

Ageing population Personalisation of

product and services

Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity

imperative

Powershift East sustainability

Scarcety of natural

resources

Divergent demographics

between rich and poor +

impact on health

Technological

development

New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid

(connectedness)

Global Connectiviy (>

fear)

consumer power

Individualization More people on the

move (mobility - job &

geographical)

Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more

informed and

empowered)

Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East

Climate iWorld (digital & natural

convergence)

Individualization New capitalism corporate social

responsibility

The Market State (govts

vs globalization)

Environment demography

Islam grows, Christianity

fades

Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaning

More wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resources

Technology impacts more

parts of daily life

Acceleration increasing complexity

Global transport will ever

increase

Network organizing

(network-centricity)

Urbanization

External experts’ assessment of megatrends - cleaned up major trends

TIP: These are not the only Megatrends... Keep an eye on megatrends constantly !

Demographics:- Ageing Population- Global mobility- Generation Y- Urbanization- Gap rich-poor

Geopolitics:- Globalization 3.0- Global Grid- Rising power of Emerging- Rising middle class- The Market State

Environment:- Global warming- Scarcety of resources- Energy dependency- Green technologies- Radical Transparency

Technology:-Pervasive Technology (IoT)- Augmented reality- Social Networks- GRIN Technologies- Tech customization

Consumer trends:-Responsible buying- Mass customization

Megatrends process

2. Discuss Megatrends in

Think Tanks

3. Build summary conclusions and

recommendations

5. Communicate results internally

and externally

Subtrends ConsequencesDrivers

Inhibitors

Antitrends?

Likeliness

Timeline

Impact on

company

Impact on

ecosystem

1. Identification of Megatrends

Meg atrendsMeg

Megatrends exercise - Think Tank discussions

22 megatrends, 5 themes

Demographics:- Ageing Population- Global mobility- Generation Y- Urbanization- Gap rich-poor

Geopolitics:- Globalization 3.0- Global Grid- Rising power of Emerging- Rising middle class- The Market State

Environment:- Global warming- Scarcety of resources- Energy dependency- Green technologies- Radical Transparency

Technology:-Pervasive Technology (IoT)- Augmented reality- Social Networks- GRIN Technologies- Tech customization

Consumer trends:

-Responsible buying- Mass customization

Discussed in 5 Think Tanks

(+/- 25 participants)

Discussion points:

Subtrends

Consequences

Drivers

Inhibitors

Antitrends?

Likeliness

Timeline

Impact on

company

Impact on

ecosystem

To keep in mind when organizing the Think Tanks

• Invite people from different backgrounds / interests

• Not necessarily specialists –discussion is about impact on company

• +/- 2 hour discussion per ‘theme’ (~Think Tank)

• Send prior briefing (‘fact sheets’)

• Take public notes of the discussion, this will stimulate further ideas

• Use a fixed template

• Ideally 4-5 people per Think Tank.

Tip 1: send previous briefing ‘fact sheets’ with thought-provoking questions...

Tip 2: also discuss potential anti-trends, they might constitute specific opportunities

CSIRO - MEGATRENDS Bridge8 - ANTITRENDS

More from less Less from less

Limited resources and increasing

population will drive need for more

efficiency in resource management

People adapt their needs to diminshing

resources

A personal touch Reducing choice

Drive for ever increasing personalisation

of services and goods

People look for ways to simplify decision

taking

Divergent demographics Growing global health

OECD countries ageing and unhealthy,

developing nations boom

Global health improvement due to science

breakthrough, improved fertility rate

More people on the move Fullfillment

Geographic and functional mobility,

urbanization

Young people will build diverse

experience leading to single goal,

technology will make location obsolete

iWorld Opting out

Digital and natural world get mixed.

Internet of things

More people will chose to deconnect

Tip 3: use ‘cue cards’ to open up the minds at the start of each megatrend discussion

Megatrends process

2. Discuss Megatrends in Think

Tanks

3. Build summary conclusions and

recommendations

4. Communicate results internally

and externally

Subtrends ConsequencesDrivers

Inhibitors

Antitrends?

Likeliness

Timeline

Impact on

company

Impact on

ecosystem

1. Identification of Megatrends

Meg atrendsMeg

Trends segmentation according to timeline, to know which ones to act on...

High

Low

Already happening Recent/nacent Future

Imp

act

on

co

mp

any

timelineFrederic De Meyer

Trends segmentation based on which action to take

man

age

ble

de

term

ine

d

context core

Influence

Aware Monitor

Action

Frederic De Meyer

‘Heat maps’ very effective way to visualize threats for customers

Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3 Trend 4 Trend [...]Weight

(%

T urno ver)

Customer segment 1 -10 -6 -5 0 -3 60%

Customer segment 2 2 8 0 2 0 20%

Customer segment 3 8 -2 3 -8 -3 10%

Customer segment 4 -7 0 0 0 2 5%

Customer segment [...] 7 6 2 1 10 5%

F rederic D e M eyer

Where to apply new ideas from megatrends?

Business Model

Product portfolio

Human Resources

Marketing

Go-to-Market

Production

Ecosystem

Customer segments

R&D

New business models

New markets, geo’s

New skills

New channels, Route-to-Market

New ways of financing

New suppliers

New organization

New vision / mission

New branding

New ways of influencing

New products, services

New communication tools

Megatrends process

2. Discuss Megatrends in Think

Tanks

3. Build summary conclusions and

recommendations

4. Communicate results internally

and externally

Subtrends ConsequencesDrivers

Inhibitors

Antitrends?

Likeliness

Timeline

Impact on

company

Impact on

ecosystem

1. Identification of Megatrends

Meg atrendsMeg

Available to: Contains: Aim: Format:

Megatrends document: every employee 'Fact sheets' prepared for discussions,

with some high level outcome of

discussions

Alignment of vision, buy-in for

decisions

Doc + discuss

Executive Briefing: top management Short document with key

opportunities and threats (not in other

docs)

Influence decisions, ideas for business

model innovation

Doc + discuss

Partner document: partners and channels Fact sheets of those trends that are

impacting channels

Partner loyalty, joint business planning Doc + discuss

Packs per customer segment: vertical sales teams Fact sheets of those trends that are

impacting specific customers

Customer intimacy, marketing & sales

arguments

Doc + discuss

Packs per product segment: productmanagers,

business units, R&D

Fact sheets of those trends that are

impacting specific product or services

Better market positioning, marketing,

sales messages

Doc + discuss

High level summary: External world Your company's vision on Megatrends Feedback from people outside of

industry, new ideas and insights

Presentations

Maximizing impact of the Megatrend exercise

Assessing the impact of Megatrends onyour company

frederic de meyer

Agenda• Introduction to Megatrends exercise

Why your company needs to look at megatrends?

What exactly is a megatrend?

Where does this exercise fit in your corporate strategy?

Examples of how companies benefit from or are affected by megatrends

Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends, how to make sure your company is prepared? How to select Megatrends to discuss

How to organize and run Think Tank sessions

How to draw strategic conclusions

How to communicate the findings

Summary advise

Some final piece of advise...

• Do the exercise yourself (don’t rely on external view only);

• Involve people from different background;

• Stay open-minded, even when link with current business is not evident;

• Structure the discussions;

• Consider anti-trends;

• ... have fun !

Thank you!

frederic de meyerinstitute for future insights

ifi.frederic@gmail.com(BE)+32 471 63 95 35www.fredericdemeyer.comtwitter: @fdemeyer