Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
Assessment of potential GHG emission reductions from Energy sector
Presented by Mikheil Mumladze Head of Analytic Department at Ministry of Energy
with support from
August 17, 2015Tbilisi, Georgia
DecisionWare Group LLCPolicy Analysis for Energy, Economy and Environment
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
• Overview of the MARKAL-Georgia Energy SupplySector
• Selection of the Scenarios
• Review of Energy Supply Sector metrics
• Review and discussion of priority policies for analysis
Presentation Outline
Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis 2
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
What are the Key Inputs?Component Description
EnergyBalance
• Supply by energy source• Generation of electricity/heat by fuel, and T&D losses• Consumption by sector
Resources•Annual production maximum and associated price, and total proven
reserves• Imports & exports by fuel (and source)
Technologies
• Existing stock of power plants and devices• Fuels in/out, efficiency, availability, technical life duration• Investment, fixed and variable O&M costs, and “hurdle” rates• Emission rates• Start year and limits on technical potential (growth and total)
DemandServices
• Level of energy service to be met in each period• Simplified load curve, and timing of each end-use using electricity • Amount of fuel switching permitted over time
Global• Length of each season/time-of-day• Discount rate, electricity reserve margin
5Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
What are the Key Outputs?Model Result Description
Total Energy System Cost
Total discounted cost of all payments for fuel, power plant builds, device purchases, operating & maintenance costs over the entire planning horizon
Resources Annual production level, and marginal price if constrained
Technologies
• Total installed capacity in each period• New power plant builds, total investment cost per period• Annual fixed and variable operating costs and fuel expenditures• Annual and season/time-of-day (for power plants) operation• Marginal cost, if constrained and limit reached
Energy Carriers• Annual amount consumed by each technology, and by sector• Marginal price (by season/time-of-day for electricity)
DemandServices
• Marginal price of meeting each demand• Change in level, if elastic formulation used [not currently in Georgia model ]
Emissions• Emission level by source/sector and fuel for each period• Marginal costs, if limited
6Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
Power Sector Structure
7
Sector fuels Technology Type Electric Transmission System
Existing
Hydropower plants
Wind
Hydropower
Solar
Electricity to each Demand Sector
New Solar power plants
New Coal fired plants
New Wind power plants
Coal
Natural Gas
Imports
Existing Natural gas power plants
New Natural gas power plants
New
Hydropower plants
Exports
Russia
Turkey
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
EC-LEDS Clean Energy – Georgia LEDS/INDC Mitigation Analysis
8Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
Scenario ID Scenario Name DescriptionBAU_LEDS LEDS BAU "Business As Usual" Scenario
BAU-BLD-RCLT LEDS BAU w COM-RSD Lighting
The objective of the analysis is to determine the electricity savings and CO2 emission reductions achieved by phasing out incandescent bulls in the residential and commercial sectors
BAU-NRG-GCRL LEDS BAU w Gas PP & Lighting
The objective of the analysis is to determine the natural gas savings and CO2 emission reductions achieved by replacing the old inefficient natural gas-fired power plants with new high efficiency combined cycle plants (Including BAU-BLD-RCLT Scenario)
BAU-NRG-RGCL LEDS BAU w Gas & RNW PP & Lighting
The objective of the analysis is to determine the energy savings and CO2 emission reductions achieved by incentivizing greater use of renewable energy in the agricultural, commercial and residential sectors (Including BAU-NRG-GCRL & BAU-BLD-RCLT Scenarios)
LED-P18-XLL LEDS 18% PE w NRG-IND-BLD measures
The objective of the analysis is to force an 18% reduction in total primary energy use by 2025 to determine the sectors and applications where the most cost-effective energy reductions can be found and the level of CO2 emission reductions achieved (Including ALL above Mitigation Scenarios)
• Amounts are in 2012MEuro (Million Euro)• Volumes are in Kt (Kilo Tone)
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
9Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
66,400 66,600 66,800 67,000 67,200 67,400 67,600 67,800 68,000 68,200 68,400
BAU_LEDS
BAU-BLD-RCLT
BAU-NRG-GCRL
BAU-NRG-RGCL
LED-P18-XLL
2012MEuro
Total Discounted System Cost
Scenario ID Scenario Description System Cost Changes In SYS Cost Changes In %BAU_LEDS LEDS BAU 68,260.42 BASE BASE
BAU-BLD-RCLT LEDS BAU w COM-RSD Lighting 67,259.76 1,000.66 -1.5%
BAU-NRG-GCRL LEDS BAU w Gas PP & Lighting 67,156.22 1,104.19 -1.6%
BAU-NRG-RGCL LEDS BAU w Gas & RNW PP & Lighting 67,094.15 1,166.27 -1.7%
LED-P18-XLL LEDS 18% PE w NRG-IND-BLD meas 67,127.87 1,132.55 -1.7%
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
10Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
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BAU_LEDS BAU-BLD-RCLT BAU-NRG-GCRL BAU-NRG-RGCL LED-P18-XLL
Aggregate CO2-EQ BY Energy
CO2 - Energy Use Methane - Energy Use N2O - Energy use
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
11Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
Aggregate CO2-EQ BY - EnergyAggregate CO2-EQ BY Energy '2012 '2015 '2018 '2021 '2024 '2027 '2030 '2033 '2036
BAU_LEDS 8,888.19 9,762.43 12,174.03 13,766.01 16,120.32 18,167.14 20,313.01 22,283.54 24,397.08
CO2 - Energy Sector 7,030.65 7,669.81 9,508.36 10,862.08 12,792.66 14,458.15 16,220.34 17,816.44 19,529.55
Methane - Energy 1,805.47 2,039.83 2,610.64 2,846.36 3,267.08 3,645.58 4,026.05 4,397.59 4,794.89
N2O - Energy use 52.08 52.79 55.04 57.58 60.58 63.40 66.63 69.51 72.65
BAU-BLD-RCLT 8,888.19 9,760.24 11,931.67 13,635.18 15,817.60 17,859.63 20,092.32 22,128.46 24,209.44
CO2 - Energy Sector 7,030.65 7,668.27 9,337.92 10,770.10 12,581.89 14,241.92 16,065.34 17,707.37 19,397.57
Methane - Energy 1,805.47 2,039.18 2,538.72 2,807.52 3,175.16 3,554.33 3,960.36 4,351.58 4,739.22
N2O - Energy use 52.08 52.79 55.03 57.57 60.56 63.38 66.62 69.51 72.65
BAU-NRG-GCRL 8,888.19 9,762.43 11,075.18 12,872.71 15,004.86 17,009.85 18,811.60 20,818.67 22,911.55
CO2 - Energy Sector 7,030.65 7,669.81 8,735.53 10,263.94 11,982.56 13,611.31 15,131.43 16,786.19 18,484.76
Methane - Energy 1,805.47 2,039.83 2,284.61 2,551.19 2,961.73 3,335.16 3,613.54 3,962.98 4,354.14
N2O - Energy use 52.08 52.79 55.04 57.57 60.57 63.38 66.63 69.51 72.65
BAU-NRG-RGCL 8,888.19 9,762.43 11,087.07 12,594.57 14,712.34 16,705.85 18,481.04 20,399.08 22,473.33
CO2 - Energy Sector 7,030.65 7,669.81 8,747.42 9,975.85 11,686.21 13,302.20 14,803.66 16,359.31 18,044.78
Methane - Energy 1,805.47 2,039.83 2,284.58 2,561.12 2,965.52 3,340.23 3,610.72 3,970.26 4,355.90
N2O - Energy use 52.08 52.79 55.07 57.61 60.61 63.42 66.66 69.51 72.65
LED-P18-XLL 8,888.19 10,578.18 10,724.00 11,776.52 13,169.49 14,253.52 15,294.35 16,189.47 17,056.52
CO2 - Energy Sector 7,030.65 8,276.41 8,500.94 9,369.94 10,532.02 11,466.53 12,322.89 13,055.12 13,750.09
Methane - Energy 1,805.47 2,248.56 2,174.56 2,360.87 2,595.00 2,744.96 2,928.83 3,090.91 3,261.66
N2O - Energy use 52.08 53.22 48.50 45.71 42.47 42.03 42.63 43.45 44.78
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
12Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
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BAU_LEDS BAU-BLD-RCLT BAU-NRG-GCRL BAU-NRG-RGCL LED-P18-XLL
CO2 By Sectors
Agriculture Power Industry Transport Commercial Residential
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
13Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
CO2 By Sectors - EnergyCO2 By Sectors Energy '2012 '2015 '2018 '2021 '2024 '2027 '2030 '2033 '2036
BAU_LEDS 7,030.65 7,669.81 9,508.36 10,862.08 12,792.66 14,458.15 16,220.34 17,816.44 19,529.55
Agriculture 28.49 30.14 33.20 36.78 41.31 45.46 50.05 54.82 60.43
Power 1,312.94 1,533.42 2,170.72 2,174.57 2,524.02 2,708.87 2,917.06 3,089.97 3,276.70
Industry 1,665.64 1,778.08 2,060.15 2,408.56 2,817.55 3,210.80 3,658.29 4,167.68 4,750.83
Transport 2,532.58 2,655.16 3,077.44 3,549.47 4,101.12 4,632.93 5,298.86 5,721.63 6,159.26
Commercial 144.12 160.62 193.99 230.03 277.07 323.02 377.07 437.81 504.51
Residential 1,346.88 1,512.41 1,972.85 2,462.67 3,031.60 3,537.07 3,919.01 4,344.53 4,777.81
BAU-BLD-RCLT 7,030.65 7,668.27 9,337.92 10,770.10 12,581.89 14,241.92 16,065.34 17,707.37 19,397.57
Agriculture 28.49 30.14 32.76 36.78 41.31 45.46 50.05 54.82 60.43
Power 1,312.94 1,533.42 2,013.66 2,111.20 2,362.54 2,516.68 2,763.45 2,982.36 3,144.76
Industry 1,665.64 1,778.08 2,060.15 2,408.56 2,817.55 3,210.80 3,658.29 4,167.68 4,750.83
Transport 2,532.58 2,655.16 3,077.44 3,549.47 4,101.12 4,632.93 5,298.86 5,721.63 6,159.26
Commercial 144.12 160.62 193.98 229.50 276.58 322.90 377.03 437.81 504.56
Residential 1,346.88 1,510.87 1,959.93 2,434.59 2,982.80 3,513.15 3,917.66 4,343.07 4,777.73
BAU-NRG-GCRL 7,030.65 7,669.81 8,735.53 10,263.94 11,982.56 13,611.31 15,131.43 16,786.19 18,484.76
Agriculture 28.49 30.14 33.20 36.78 41.31 45.46 50.05 54.82 60.43
Power 1,312.94 1,533.42 1,391.84 1,588.83 1,733.59 1,881.70 1,829.29 2,059.08 2,231.70
Industry 1,665.64 1,778.08 2,060.15 2,408.56 2,817.55 3,210.80 3,658.29 4,167.68 4,750.83
Transport 2,532.58 2,655.16 3,077.44 3,549.47 4,101.12 4,632.93 5,298.86 5,721.63 6,159.26
Commercial 144.12 160.62 194.02 229.91 276.94 322.88 376.92 437.81 504.56
Residential 1,346.88 1,512.41 1,978.87 2,450.40 3,012.06 3,517.53 3,918.02 4,345.17 4,777.97
BAU-NRG-RGCL 7,030.65 7,669.81 8,747.42 9,975.85 11,686.21 13,302.20 14,803.66 16,359.31 18,044.78
Agriculture 28.49 30.14 33.20 36.78 41.31 45.46 50.05 54.82 60.43
Power 1,312.94 1,533.42 1,391.84 1,276.80 1,415.37 1,550.62 1,488.84 1,632.23 1,790.25
Industry 1,665.64 1,778.08 2,060.15 2,408.56 2,817.55 3,210.80 3,658.29 4,167.68 4,750.83
Transport 2,532.58 2,655.16 3,077.44 3,549.47 4,101.12 4,632.93 5,298.86 5,721.63 6,159.26
Commercial 144.12 160.62 206.05 242.10 289.13 335.09 389.14 437.81 506.04
Residential 1,346.88 1,512.41 1,978.72 2,462.14 3,021.73 3,527.30 3,918.48 4,345.15 4,777.97
LED-P18-XLL 7,030.65 8,276.41 8,500.94 9,369.94 10,532.02 11,466.53 12,322.89 13,055.12 13,750.09
Agriculture 28.49 29.89 32.76 35.96 39.49 42.45 45.64 44.36 39.53
Power 1,312.94 1,859.69 1,342.93 1,260.94 1,414.82 1,399.01 1,420.90 1,504.44 1,610.44
Industry 1,665.64 1,778.08 2,005.53 2,225.54 2,481.50 2,701.68 2,948.19 3,245.22 3,624.04
Transport 2,532.58 2,653.31 3,034.96 3,454.98 3,940.71 4,461.23 4,861.95 5,108.69 5,245.03
Commercial 144.12 179.43 204.63 213.71 268.09 322.29 390.68 416.14 433.13
Residential 1,346.88 1,776.02 1,880.12 2,178.81 2,387.43 2,539.87 2,655.54 2,736.26 2,797.91
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
14Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
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BAU_LEDS BAU-BLD-RCLT BAU-NRG-GCRL BAU-NRG-RGCL LED-P18-XLL
Power Sector’s Share In Total Energy Use CO2
Power Total
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
15
Power '2012 '2015 '2018 '2021 '2024 '2027 '2030 '2033 '2036
BAU_LEDS 1,312.94 1,533.42 2,170.72 2,174.57 2,524.02 2,708.87 2,917.06 3,089.97 3,276.70
BAU-BLD-RCLT - - 157.06 63.37 161.48 192.19 153.61 107.61 131.94
BAU-NRG-GCRL - - 778.88 585.74 790.43 827.17 1,087.77 1,030.89 1,045.00
BAU-NRG-RGCL - - 778.88 897.77 1,108.65 1,158.26 1,428.21 1,457.74 1,486.45
LED-P18-XLL - (326.27) 827.79 913.63 1,109.20 1,309.86 1,496.16 1,585.52 1,666.26
Power '2012 '2015 '2018 '2021 '2024 '2027 '2030 '2033 '2036
BAU_LEDS 1,312.94 1,533.42 2,170.72 2,174.57 2,524.02 2,708.87 2,917.06 3,089.97 3,276.70
BAU-BLD-RCLT 0% 0% 7% 3% 6% 7% 5% 3% 4%
BAU-NRG-GCRL 0% 0% 36% 27% 31% 31% 37% 33% 32%
BAU-NRG-RGCL 0% 0% 36% 41% 44% 43% 49% 47% 45%
LED-P18-XLL 0% -21% 38% 42% 44% 48% 51% 51% 51%
Total '2012 '2015 '2018 '2021 '2024 '2027 '2030 '2033 '2036
BAU_LEDS 7,030.65 7,669.81 9,508.36 10,862.08 12,792.66 14,458.15 16,220.34 17,816.44 19,529.55
BAU-BLD-RCLT - 1.54 170.44 91.97 210.77 216.24 155.00 109.07 131.97
BAU-NRG-GCRL - - 772.83 598.13 810.10 846.85 1,088.91 1,030.25 1,044.78
BAU-NRG-RGCL - - 760.94 886.23 1,106.45 1,155.96 1,416.68 1,457.13 1,484.77
LED-P18-XLL - (606.60) 1,007.42 1,492.13 2,260.63 2,991.63 3,897.44 4,761.32 5,779.46
Total '2012 '2015 '2018 '2021 '2024 '2027 '2030 '2033 '2036
BAU_LEDS 7,030.65 7,669.81 9,508.36 10,862.08 12,792.66 14,458.15 16,220.34 17,816.44 19,529.55
BAU-BLD-RCLT 0% 0% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%
BAU-NRG-GCRL 0% 0% 8% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 5%
BAU-NRG-RGCL 0% 0% 8% 8% 9% 8% 9% 8% 8%
LED-P18-XLL 0% -8% 11% 14% 18% 21% 24% 27% 30%
Changes In %
Changes In Volume
Changes In Volume
Changes In %
Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
16Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
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BAU_LEDS BAU-BLD-RCLT BAU-NRG-GCRL BAU-NRG-RGCL LED-P18-XLL (1,000.00)
(500.00)
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Investments In Supply & Demand Sides
Demand Side Investment Supply Side Investment
• Plus Figures Mean Investment Required• Minus Figures Mean Saving Exercised
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
17Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
Scenarios 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 Total
BAU_LEDS - 4,383.67 7,045.70 8,044.18 8,557.70 7,653.74 8,022.00 7,235.54 10,283.56
BAU-BLD-RCLT - 4,386.50 7,078.97 7,834.79 8,434.24 7,772.07 7,991.30 7,493.88 10,216.74
BAU-NRG-GCRL - 4,386.11 7,311.64 7,908.80 8,588.81 7,765.26 7,688.20 7,332.79 10,677.31
BAU-NRG-RGCL - 4,386.11 7,316.48 7,860.50 8,565.73 7,771.35 7,679.94 7,484.06 10,665.39
LED-P18-XLL - 4,561.94 7,484.74 8,250.24 9,246.89 8,504.55 9,870.29 10,009.01 13,800.96
Supply Side Investment '2012 '2015 '2018 '2021 '2024 '2027 '2030 '2033 '2036 Total
BAU-BLD-RCLT - - - (244.07) (180.68) 37.55 (119.73) 167.96 (338.96)
BAU-NRG-GCRL - - 232.98 (167.11) (38.53) 35.59 (420.19) 6.83 463.57 113.16
BAU-NRG-RGCL - - 232.98 (211.55) (61.52) 41.23 (428.55) 157.04 452.73 182.36
LED-P18-XLL - 4.36 249.60 (207.18) (104.82) (252.83) (396.26) 73.64 340.70 (292.80)
Demand Side Investment Total
BAU-BLD-RCLT - 2.83 33.27 34.67 57.21 80.78 89.03 90.38 388.18
BAU-NRG-GCRL - 2.44 32.96 31.73 69.63 75.93 86.38 90.42 (3.00) 386.50
BAU-NRG-RGCL - 2.44 37.80 27.87 69.54 76.38 86.49 91.48 (4.08) 387.93
LED-P18-XLL - 173.91 189.45 413.24 794.01 1,103.64 2,244.55 2,699.83 3,243.52 10,862.16
Net Investment Total
BAU-BLD-RCLT - 2.83 33.27 (209.39) (123.46) 118.34 (30.70) 258.34 - 49.22
BAU-NRG-GCRL - 2.44 265.94 (135.38) 31.10 111.53 (333.80) 97.25 460.57 499.66
BAU-NRG-RGCL - 2.44 270.78 (183.68) 8.02 117.61 (342.06) 248.52 448.65 570.29
LED-P18-XLL - 178.27 439.05 206.06 689.19 850.81 1,848.29 2,773.47 3,584.22 10,569.36
Potential Investments & Savings By Following different scenarios
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
18Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
Scenario Name Change in System Cost CO2 Reductions Supply INV Demand INV
LEDS BAU BASE BASE 2012 MEuro 2012 MEuro
LEDS BAU w COM-RSD Lighting -1.5% 0.7% (338.96) 388.18
LEDS BAU w Gas PP & Lighting -1.6% 5.3% 113.16 386.50
LEDS BAU w Gas & RNW PP & Lighting -1.7% 7.6% 182.36 387.93
LEDS 18% PE w NRG-IND-BLD measures -1.7% 29.6% (292.80) 10,862.16
SUMMARY CUMULATIVE METRICS (2012-2036)
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
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19Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
Enhancing Capacity For Low Emission Development Strategies
EC-LEDS Clean Energy Program
20Georgia Energy Sector Preliminary LEDS Analysis
Aggregate CO2-EQ – Based on Available Energy Balances
Aggregate CO2-EQ BY Energy
' 2011 OECD 2012 OECD 2012 LEDS 2012 ADJ 2013 GEOSTAT 2014 MoE
SUPPLY SIDE - Domestic Supply 40.38 72.38 100.49 114.87 114.44 86.28
SUPPLY SIDE - Transformation Sector - Input 1,109.50 1,262.03 1,316.66 1,316.66 948.78 1,080.57
SUPPLY SIDE - Energy Sector - - - 2.40 1.79
SUPPLY SIDE - Transformation Sector - Production - - - - - -
SUPPLY SIDE - Distribution Losses 1,073.82 1,040.01 1,481.42 1,481.42 1,307.03 1,436.04
CONSUMPTION SIDE - INDUSTRY 1,105.94 1,152.97 833.28 1,664.58 1,707.12 1,625.17
CONSUMPTION SIDE - TRANSPORT 2,280.36 2,418.99 2,404.97 2,546.65 2,513.04 2,688.38
CONSUMPTION SIDE - OTHER 533.86 664.58 2,190.67 1,763.89 1,952.76 1,865.46
NON-ENERGY USE - Industry sector - - - 1.55 1.37 1.54
NON-ENERGY USE - Transport sector 17.90 15.82 17.87
NON-ENERGY USE - Energy sector - 3.99 3.53 3.99
Grand Total 6,143.85 6,610.95 8,327.49 8,911.51 8,566.29 8,807.09