ASSESSMENT REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS … · 3 Preface An assessment of observed and expected...

FEDERAL SERVICEFOR HYDROMETEOROLOGY

AND ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING (ROSHYDROMET)

ASSESSMENT REPORTON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS CONSEQUENCES

IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION

GENERAL SUMMARY

Moscow — 2008

Science Coordinating Committee:A. I. Bedritsky, Head of Roshydromet (Chair); V. G. Blinov; D. A. Gershinkova (Executive Secretary);

G. S. Golitsyn; V. P. Dymnikov; Yu. A. Izrael; V. M. Kattsov; V. M. Kotlyakov; V. P. Meleshko; V. I. Osipov;S. M. Semenov

Leading scientific organizations responsible for preparation of the Report:

Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, Roshydromet (MGO)Institute of Global Climate and Ecology, Roshydromet and Russian Academy of Sciences (IGCE)

General Summary submitted for:— Heads, advisors, and experts of federal and regional executive authorities of the Russian Federation

responsible for planning and implementation of specific tasks relevant to various sectors of economy andprograms of sustainable development;

— Heads, advisors, and experts of institutions and organizations of the Russian Federation whose activitiesdepend on climate change and have an influence upon it;

— Nongovernmental organizations and scientific community that are interested in receiving objectiveinformation about climate condition, its changes, influence on the environment, the economy and humanhealth in the Russian Federation.

General Summary contains minimum specific details and technical terminology that are consideredcomprehensively in Technical Summary and the main Report (volumes I and II). References are given in theReport. Comments on possible measures for adaptation to changing climate are emphasized in the form ofspecial boxes.

The summary is drafted by:V. P. Meleshko, Chair, Working Group I “Climate Change in Russian Federation”S. M. Semenov, Chair, Working Group II “Consequences of Climate Change in Russian Federation”

and lead authors of the Report:O. A. Anisimov, Yu. A. Anokhin, L. I. Boltneva, E. A. Vaganov, G. V. Gruza, A. S. Zaitsev, A. N. Zo-

lotokrylin, Yu. A. Izrael, G. E. Insarov, I. L. Karol, V. M. Kattsov, N. V. Kobysheva, A. G. Kostianoy, A. N. Krenke,A. V. Mescherskaya, V. M. Mirvis, V. V. Oganesyan, A. V. Pchelkin, B. A. Revich, A. I. Reshetnikov, V. A. Semenov,O. D. Sirotenko, P. V. Sporyshev, F. S. Terziev, I. E. Frolov, V. Ch. Khon, A. V. Tsyban, B. G. Sherstyukov,I. A. Shiklomanov, V. V. Yasukevich

ASSESSMENT REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS CONSEQUENCESIN RUSSIAN FEDERATION

General Summary

© Roshydromet, 2008ISBN 978-5-904-206-96-03

UBC 551.583(470+570)

3

Preface

An assessment of observed and expected climate changes and theirimpacts is an important component of an information system for thedevelopment of climate policy at national and international levels. Anoverview of such information at the international level is undertakenperiodically by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), which was jointly established by the World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) in 1988. The IPCC assesses available scientific, technical and socio-economic information on climatechange and its impact, as well as on options for mitigating climate change and adapting to it.

Outcomes of such studies are published periodically as the IPCC Assessment Reports, and by now fourreports have been issued (in 1990, 1996, 2001, and 2007). As the Intergovernmental Panel, the IPCC isresponsible for the submission of objective scientific findings to the world community for the elaboration of aglobal and regional development strategy. Furthermore, it is expected that governments can take into accountthe IPCC findings and subsequently apply them to both the development of internal policy and the adoption ofrelevant actions resulting from international agreements.

The IPCC reports, which are aimed mainly at global assessments, cannot provide a complete picture ofregional climate changes and its impacts. Further development and implementation of practical measures arerequired to reduce the anthropogenic influence on the climate system and mitigate its consequence at thenational level. Therefore, in addition to IPCC activities, many countries carry out assessments at national levelsemploying comprehensive data sets collected by national hydrometeorological services, thoroughly use results ofnational research, and take into account inherent regional features and social conditions.

Assessment Report on Climate Change and Its Consequences in the Russian Federation prepared on theinitiative of Roshydromet is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of past, present and futureclimate change. It synthesizes information on climate conditions in the country and considers the followingtopics:

— Observed and expected climate change;— Consequences of climate change for environmental and economic systems, human health, and possible

adaptation measures;— Further research needs.The assessment Report is a continuation and extension of the former report Strategic Prediction of Climate

Change in Russian Federation for Period 2010–2015 and Its Influences on Different Sectors of Economy publishedby Roshydromet in 2005.

The current Report is prepared for use by federal and regional executive authorities and other organizationsresponsible for planning and implementation of both specific tasks relevant to various sectors of the economyand programs on sustainable development, as well as by research and educational institutions, and publicorganizations concerned with issues on climate change in the Russian Federation.

A.I. BedritskyHead,Federal Servicefor Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring

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Introduction

The current Assessment Report on Climate Changeand Its Consequences in the Russian Federation wassubmitted by a group of scientists from researchinstitutions of Roshydromet, the Russian Academy ofSciences and educational institutions on the basis ofanalysis of climatic data obtained from the state hy-drometeorological network and outcomes of studiespublished by Russian and foreign scientists on issues ofclimate change and its impacts.

The Assessment Report consists of two volumes.The first volume is devoted to the physical basis ofanthropogenic change of global and regional climates.Its main foci are the observed climate change for the20th century and projected climate change for the 21stcentury in the Russian Federation (surface air tem-perature, precipitation, runoff, snow cover and sea icecover, permafrost, and sea level).

The second volume presents the assessment ofimpacts of observed and expected climate changes onthe natural terrestrial and marine ecological systems ofRussia, various economic sectors (agricultural produc-tion, water use, river and sea shipping, buildings andengineering constructions, municipal economy, etc.),and public health. Particular attention is given to large-scale consequences of dangerous hydrometeorologicalevents.

The main findings of both volumes of the Reportare summarized in two additional publications:

— General Summary provides a brief overviewof the main observed and expected climate change andits consequences, as well as a description of possibleadaptation measures.

— Technical Summary provides a more exten-sive overview of the topics concerned, as compared toGeneral Summary with wide use of scientific terminol-ogy (published in Russian only).

General Summary is submitted to:— Heads and experts of the federal and regional

executive authorities of the Russian Federation respon-sible for planning and implementation of specific tasksrelevant to various sectors of the economy and pro-grams of sustainable development;

— Heads and experts of institutions and orga-nizations of the Russian Federation whose activitydepends on climate change and have influence upon it;

— Nongovernmental organizations and scientificcommunity that are interested in receiving objectiveinformation about climate conditions, its changes,influence on the environment, economy and humanhealth in the Russian Federation.

General Summary contains minimum specific de-tails and technical terminology that are consideredcomprehensively in Technical Summary and the mainReport (volumes I and II). References are given in theReport. Comments on possible measures of adaptationto changing climate are presented in boxes. Referencesare also made to specific chapters and volumes of theReport at the end of paragraphs.

General Summary is based on the material setforth in two volumes of the Assessment Report andthe report Strategic Prediction of Climate Change inRussian Federation for period 2010–2015 and ItsInfluences on Different Sectors of Economy published byRoshydromet in 2005.

General Summary was submitted by the group ofexperts guided by Dr. A. I. Bedritsky, Head, Ros-hydromet. Among other members of the group wereV. P. Meleshko (Voeikov Main Geophysical Observa-tory), S. M. Semenov (Institute of Global Climate andEcology), as well as V. G. Blinov, D. A. Gershinkova,P. N. Vargin, and A. O. Sokolov, staff members ofthe Department of Scientific Programs, InternationalCooperation and Information Resources, Ros-hydromet.

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GENERAL SUMMARYGENERAL SUMMARYGENERAL SUMMARYGENERAL SUMMARYGENERAL SUMMARY

0 500 1000 1500 2000 3000 4500 m

Fig. GS1. Basic surface meteorological network of the Russian Hydrometeorological Service that consists of1627 stations including 458 reference stations (red circles).

Altitude above sea level

to the reference network which by definition includesthose stations that provide a full program of observa-tions, cover representative areas with uniform meteo-rological conditions, have long series of observationsand cannot be closed or relocated. In addition, theregional basic climate network includes 238 stations.GCOS comprises 135 reference stations and 12 upper-air stations of the Russian Federation. It also includestwo stations (Teriberka and New Port) providingmonitoring of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide andmethane), and 27 stations performing measurementsof total ozone. Actinometric observations areconducted at 191 sites, hydrological observations onrivers, lakes, and reservoirs are carried out at 3085sites, and one site located at Obninsk provides regularobservations in the atmospheric boundary layer (up to300 m). There are also 11 avalanche observing sites inthe mountain regions of Northern Caucasia.

Some observations relevant to climate study arealso conducted by other agencies and institutions (forinstance, Ministry of Defence, the Russian Academyof Sciences). However, Roshydromet carries out thetotal amount of observations significantly exceedingthose undertaken by other agencies.

The meteorological network is rather sparse forstudy of regional climate in some areas of Russia.

Climate observing system

To understand causes of climate change and todevelop means for its prediction, it is necessary toconduct permanent and coherent observations all overthe world.

The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)established by the World Meteorological Organization(WMO), the United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP), the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Com-mission (IOC) of UNESCO, and the InternationalCouncil for Science (ICSU) uses observational sitesplaced at continents, ships, floating buoys, weatherballoons, aircraft, and satellites.

Basic observations of climate in the RussianFederation are being carried out by the NationalHydrometeorological Service (Roshydromet). In ac-cordance with the WMO Convention, Roshydrometparticipates in the following observational programs:the World Weather Watch (WWW), Global Atmo-spheric Watch (GAW), Global Ocean Observing Sys-tem (GOOS), and Global Terrestrial Observing Sys-tem (GTOS).

Regular climate observations are conducted byRoshydromet at 1627 stations of the surface meteoro-logical network. Of this number, 458 stations belong

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Fig. GS2. Changes in annual surface air temperature (°C) averaged over Russia relative to its mean value for theperiod 1961–1990. The thin line shows observed temperature. The thick line implies a smoothed air temperaturetrend derived from 11�year moving averages. Considerable inter�annual variation of temperature took placeagainst the background of its persistent growth.

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Therefore, along with efforts aimed at the enhance-ment of the surface network, emphasis is placed onanalysis of regional climate using satellite observations.

Roshydromet prepares the annual report that de-scribes climate conditions in different regions of thecountry during the year, including the occurrence ofanomalous conditions and extreme weather phenom-ena (AR, vol. I, Ch. 2).

Climate change during the period of instrumentalrecords

Surface air temperature. Evidence from observa-tions and model simulations indicate that warming inRussia as a whole is larger than global warming. Ac-cording to observations provided by the meteorologicalnetwork of Roshydromet, the warming in Russia was1.29°C for the last 100 years (1907–2006), whereasglobal warming for the same period was 0.74°C ac-cording to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Fur-thermore, the mean warming in the country was1.33°C for the period 1976–2006 (Fig. GS2). Theannual maxima and minima of daily surface air tem-perature increased, and the difference between themdecreased (minima grew faster than maxima). Thelargest increase in minimum and maximum daily

temperature occurred in the cold season. The numberof frosty days decreased (AR, vol. I, Ch. 3).

Precipitation. Due to both a complicated physicalnature of phenomenon and heterogeneity of observa-tions, precipitation changes are evaluated with lessconfidence than surface air temperature changes. Itwas found that annual precipitation over Russia in-creased (7.2 mm/10 years) for the period 1976–2006.However, considerable differences were observed inpatterns of region precipitation changes. The most es-sential changes are the increase in spring precipitation(16.8/10 years) in the western and northeasternregions of Siberia and in the European part of Russia(EPR). However, a decrease in winter precipitationwas observed in the north-eastern regions of Siberiaincluding the Magadan district, the northern part ofKhabarovsk land and the eastern part of the Chukchiautonomous region. Indicators characterizingextremely large precipitation show a weak increase inthe number of cases with heavy precipitation and somedecrease in maximum duration of dry periods (AR,vol. I, Ch. 3).

Clouds. During the second half of the 20th cen-tury, the amount of convective clouds increased with asimultaneous decrease in stratiform clouds in thegreater part of Russia. On the whole, it contributed tothe increase in high clouds (AR, vol. I, Ch. 3).

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River runoff. The annual runoff increased by 15–40% for the period 1978–2005 relative to 1946–1977at rivers in the western regions of the EPR andtributaries on the left bank of the Volga River. Therunoff increased by 10–15% in the upper basin of theNorthern Dvina, upper reaches of the Dnieper, andleft-bank tributaries of the Don. A runoff increase of20–40% also took place on the left-bank tributaries ofthe Tobol and the Irtysh rivers in the Asian partof Russia (APR). Runoff increases were also observedin the Yenisey basin (8%) and in the greater part ofthe Lena basin, particularly in the last decade of the20th century. The runoff also increased by 5–15% inthe north-eastern river basins of the APR (AR,vol. I, Ch. 3).

Snow cover. Satellite measurements for the last30 years showed that snow cover considerably de-creased in the Northern Hemisphere in spring andsummer. In the western regions of the EPR, Trans-baikalia, and Chukci region there was a tendency fora decrease in snow depth. The main reason of sucha change in recent decades was the surface air tem-perature rise. On the other hand, the increase insnow depth was also observed in some regions wherevery low annual mean temperatures persisted and theincrease in precipitation was observed in winter (AR,vol. I, Ch. 3).

In most regions of the country the number of dayswith snow depth of 20 cm has increased. Along thecoast of the Arctic seas extending from the Kola Pen-insula to Taimyr, the linear trend of this characteristicwas 6–8 days/10 years. Similar trends were also docu-mented in the eastern regions of the EPR and in thesouth of Western Siberia.

Permafrost. In the last quarter of the 20th cen-tury, the rise of temperature of the upper ground layerwas observed at many sites of the permafrost zone,and the increase in depth of seasonal thawing tookplace in some regions. The annual ground temperatureincreased by 1.0°C at many sites of the permafrostzone of Western Siberia and by 0.8–1.0°C in the north-western regions of the EPR (AR, vol. I, Ch. 3).

Sea ice in the Arctic basin. Long-term variationof sea ice extent is a good indicator of climatechange in the Arctic. Satellite observations haveshown a steady downward trend in sea ice for the lasttwo decades. Since the beginning of satellite observa-tions in 1979 the minimum seasonal sea ice areaobserved in September every year has been decreas-ing by 9% per decade, and in September 2007 icecover had a minimum value ever recorded, 4.3 mil-lion km2 (AR, vol. I, Ch. 3).

Changes of greenhouse gases and aerosols in theatmosphere

Atmospheric greenhouse gases

Human activities have significant influence on theconcentration of greenhouse gases of the atmosphereAmongst such gases are (Fig. GS3):

— Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most importantgreenhouse gas in view of its influence on climate. Therate of its growth was unprecedented over the past 250years, and now its current level makes up 35% of thepre-industrial period. In 2005 the CO2 concentrationreached 379 ppm.

— Methane (CH4) is the second greenhouse gasby its significance after CO2; its current concentrationis 2.5 times as high as the pre-industrial value andreached 1774 ppb in 2005.

— Nitrous oxide (N2O) increased by 18% in 2005relative to the pre-industrial period and its con-centration constituted 319 ppb. At present about 40%of N2O, emitted to the atmosphere is due to humanactivities (fertilization, cattle breeding, chemical in-dustry) (AR, vol. I, Ch. 4).

The CO2 concentration series at Teriberka(Fig. GS4) station operated by Roshydromet showedthat the annual trend was 1.7 ppm/year over the recent17 years with a considerable seasonal variation of15–20 ppm.

The national emission of greenhouse gases to theatmosphere by various sectors of the economy hasbeen evaluated on the basis of statistical analysis ofactivities leading to gas emissions from differentsources and their removal from the atmosphere byappropriate absorbents. In accordance with the com-mitments of the Russian Federation to the UN Frame-work Convention on Climate Change and the KyotoProtocol, national reports on the cadastre of anthro-pogenic emissions from different sources and sinks ofgreenhouse gases are regularly submitted and presentedto UNFCCC Secretariat. The reports are also placedat Roshydromet web site.

Emissions of greenhouse gases in Russia are duemainly to power generation, industry, agriculture andwaste recycling (Fig. GS5) and for the period 2005–2006 they were about 70% of those of 1990.

Radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosolsin the atmosphere

Modifying the radiative properties of the atmo-sphere is the main way of the anthropogenic influenceon the global climate system. Contribution of atmo-spheric greenhouse gases is the main driving mecha-nism of such forcing.

All greenhouse gases with long lifetimes and ozonehave a positive radiative forcing (2.9 ± 0.3 W/m2). The

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Fig. GS3. Time dependence of the concentration of carbon dioxide (a), methane (b) and nitrous oxide (c) in theatmosphere over the past 10 000 years (large panels) and since 1750 (inset panels). Measurements are shownfrom ice cores (symbols with different colors from various studies) and atmospheric samples (red lines). Thecorresponding radiative forcings are shown on the right hand axes of the large panels (AR, vol. I, Fig. 4.1).

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Fig. GS4. Time dependence of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere at Teriberka station (Kola Peninsula) for

the period 1988–2007. Solid circles and lines show individual observations, seasonal cycle and multi�year trend.

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Fig. GS5. Emissions of the main greenhouse gases (CO2, CH

4, N

2O) from sources associated with industrial and

agricultural production and waste recycling (106 tons CO2�equivalent) in Russia for 1990–2004.

net forcing produced by concentration changes of allgreenhouse gases and aerosols makes up 1.6 (from 0.6to 2.4) W/m2.

All types of aerosols produce direct radiative effectand act indirectly by changing cloud albedo. The netaerosol forcing is negative (–1.3 ± 0.8 W/m2). However,

reliability of this estimate is much less than that forgreenhouse gases.

Since the beginning of the industrial era, the pro-cesses of land ploughing and forest cutting have sig-nificantly accelerated, and by the end of the 20thcentury agricultural and arable lands occupied 35–

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39% of the whole area, while the part occupied byforests was reduced by 20–24%. The radiative forcingassociated with land use is evaluated at 0.15–0.20 W/m2

(AR, vol. I, Ch. 4).The direct radiative forcing due to solar irradiance

change since 1750 until present makes up 0.12 W/m2.Therefore, according to the IPCC Fourth AssessmentReport, there is no reason to believe that changes ofsolar activity and associated changes of the solar fluxcoming to the top of the atmosphere are the onlycause of observed climate warming (AR, vol. I, Ch. 4).

Current climate models

Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models(AOGCMs) are the main and the most promising toolfor prediction of future climate changes due to inter-nal interactions between different components of theclimate system and external forcings of natural andanthropogenic origin. The model can also be used fordetection and attribution of causes of observed climatechanges.

An important property of the models is theirability to respond to external forcings (such as chang-es in solar irradiance, volcanic activity, and atmo-spheric composition). This is determined by internalprocesses of the climate system with feedbacks con-tributing to enhancement or suppression of the influ-ence of the forcings. The current models show differ-ent sensitivity to the same external forcing, and thisis one of the sources of uncertainty in estimates offuture climate change. The studies also show that thesensitivity of equilibrium climate to a doubling ofCO2 concentration ranges within 2.0–4.5°C and thevalue of 3°C is considered as the most probablesensitivity. The spread of sensitivities among modelsis mainly due to differences in the description ofcloud-radiative feedbacks. A large contribution to sen-sitivity is made by other feedbacks resulting fromreduction in snow and sea ice extent and relatedchanges of surface albedo (AR, vol. I, Ch. 5).

A set of parallel computations of climate param-eters using different initial conditions or results ofsimulations with different independent models is calleda model ensemble. Ensemble simulations are usuallymost successful in reproduction of observed climate.This is because systematic errors inherent in particularmodels often turn out to be random with respect tothe ensemble, and when averaged in the ensemble,they are reciprocally compensated. It is of importanceto develop quantitative indices that could be used toevaluate aggregated quality of the models and subse-quently set up an optimal ensemble (AR, vol. I, Ch. 5).

In connection with preparation of the IPCCFourth Assessment Report, the CMIP3 project un-precedented by its scale and a number of participating

institutions has been successfully implemented. Itsmain purpose was to simulate and to analyse climateof the 20th and 21st centuries using mostly newgeneration AOGCMs developed by leading researchinstitutions all over the world.

As compared with a previous generation of themodels, the new ones have been further improved byincreasing space resolution, further improving param-eterization of physical processes and including addi-tional, climatically significant processes in severalmodels. It has led to further improvement of simula-tion of the current climate in many aspects. Climatesimulations for Russia with the CMIP3 ensembleshowed the following features (AR, vol. I, Ch. 5):

— AOGCMs successfully compute the seasonalvariation of surface air temperature in different regionsof Russia. However, the annual mean temperature wasunderestimated (–1.8 ± 1.5)°C for the whole country.This becomes particularly apparent during the coldseason in the north-western regions of the country andin Western Siberia.

— AOGCMs successfully compute the distribu-tion of annual maxima and minima of surface airtemperature in most parts of Northern Eurasia in-cluding the location of the highest temperature inCentral Asia. However, models underestimate annualmaxima by 2–4°C in Central and Eastern Siberiaand overestimate annual minima mostly in EasternSiberia.

— AOGCMs realistically reproduce the mainpatterns of precipitation including summer maximaand winter minima. At the same time, the modelsoverestimate annual precipitation (by 8%) in most ofRussia. Inter-model standard deviation turns out to be,as a rule, 1.5–2.0 times greater than annual meanerrors for all Russia.

— The annual mean runoff in major watershedswas computed by AOGCMs realistically. According toobservations, the inter-annual variability of runoff forthe major Siberian rivers (Ob, Yenisey, Lena) was7–15%, and the multi-model spread turned out to be18–26% relative to its annual mean values.

— Models successfully reproduce the locationand intensity of the Icelandic and Aleutian lows andSiberian high in winter. The current models morerealistically simulate the location of blocking systems.However, their frequency is lower and they persist forshorter periods.

— The models overestimate snow cover extent inthe cold season and show considerable multi-model dif-ferences in pattern distributions of snow cover. Manymodels demonstrate excessive snow cover in spring anddelay of spring thawing because of the underestimationof surface air temperature in Northern Eurasia as awhole.

— The computed annual zero isotherm at 3 mdepth for loamy soil rather realistically represents the

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Fig. GS6. Time dependence of the mean annual anomaly of surface air temperature for the whole countryobtained from observations (1, 2) and derived from the ensemble of 16 CMIP3 AOGCMs with only natural externalforcing (3) and anthropogenic and natural forcing (4). Anomalies are computed relative to the annual mean for1901–1950. Curve (2) is obtained from (1) by applying 11�year moving averages. Slightly coloured zonesindicate scatter of the standard deviation (±σ) relative to the ensemble mean (AR, vol. I, Fig. 6.7).

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current boundary of permafrost including the zone ofintermediate and sporadic permafrost.

— Models satisfactory reproduce the seasonalcycle of sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean. At thesame time, the majority of models overestimate sea iceextent throughout the year.

Anthropogenic contribution to climate warming

A large number of studies have been conductedwith AOGCMs aimed at the reproduction of observedclimate changes for the period of instrumental records.Comparison of simulated and observed variations ofsurface air temperature provides convincing evidencesupporting the anthropogenic nature of observed cli-mate warming. Furthermore, anthropogenic warminghas been revealed not only on a global scale, but on acontinental scale as well (AR, vol. I, Ch. 6).

Climate observations indicate that surface airtemperature has also been increasing in Russia sincethe middle of the 1970s. Good agreement was alsorevealed between observed and simulated trends ofsurface air temperatures averaged over the wholecountry when computation was carried out with theAOGCM ensemble describing, in particular, the an-thropogenic increase in greenhouse gases and aerosols(Fig. GS6). Further analysis of observations and cli-mate simulations for major continents provided aconsistent picture of warming and allowed the follow-ing conclusions (AR, vol. I, Ch. 6):

— Climate changes observed for the last 50 yearsare very unlikely to occur without external forcing.

— With high confidence one can claim that sincethe middle of the 20th century the observed growth ofthe concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gaseshas stipulated the largest portion of global warming.

At the same time, global warming takes placeagainst the background of the inter-annual naturalvariability of climate which is particularly significantin middle and high latitudes, and it frequently ex-ceeds the anthropogenic signal on space scales smallerthan the scales of a subcontinent (AR, vol. I, Ch. 6).

Expected climate changes

Prediction reliability of future climate change de-pends upon many factors, each of which yields somedegree of uncertainty. The main sources of uncertaintyare (AR, vol. I, Ch. 7):

— There is a fundamental problem to forecastfuture technological development and energy use inthe world for a long period. In turn, it causesuncertainty in future emissions of greenhouse gasesand aerosols to the atmosphere.

— It is a priori impossible to take into accountnatural external forcings such as future volcaniceruptions and changes of solar flux at the top of theatmosphere.

— Current models describe climatically signifi-cant processes and relevant feedbacks with someinaccuracy, which is caused by inadequate understand-ing of some physical processes.

Projection of climate change for the 21st centuryin Russia and contiguous regions was obtained from

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Fig. GS7. Changes in surface air temperature (a, b) and total (solid and liquid) precipitation (c, d) in Russia andadjoining regions for winter (a, c) and for summer (b, d) during the period 2041–2060, as compared to the period1980–1999. Assessment was obtained from the ensemble of 16 CMIP3 AOGCMs using scenario A2. Temperatureis given in degrees Celsius and precipitation in percent relative to its value in the corresponding season for theperiod 1980–1999. In the upper panels (a, b) dots imply that mean temperature changes exceed the standarddeviation of the inter�model scatter (signal is larger than noise), and in the low panels (c, d) they denote theareas where two thirds of the models show changes of the same sign (AR, vol. 1, Figs. 7.7, 7.14).

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simulations of global climate using the ensemble ofCMIP3 AOGCMs (16 members). In analysis, the pe-riod 1980–1999 was taken as the reference one.

The IPCC has developed scenarios of emissions ofgreenhouse gases and aerosols to the atmosphere forthe 21st century taking into account demographic,economic, technological, and other factors. Accordingto the “strong” SRES A2, scenario, the concentrationof carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) will in-crease by 1.51 times and nitrous oxide (N2O) by 1.21times by 2050 relative to 1990. However, it has beenshown that, at least, by the middle of the century theglobal warming and warming in Russia will dependonly slightly on the selected emission scenario (AR,vol. I, Ch. 7).

Surface air temperature. The increase in annualmean temperature is expected to be much larger inRussia than the global warming. By 2020, its growthwill exceed the multi-model spread (standard devia-tion) which will be 1.1 ± 0.5°C. By the middle of thecentury, the temperature rise will be even larger(2.6 ± 0.7°C), particularly in winter (3.4 ± 0.8°C)(Fig. GS7a, b). In the southern and north-westernregions of the EPR, the rise of the lowest daily tem-perature minima is expected to be 4–6°C. The rise ofdaily temperature maxima will not exceed 3°C. Thus,the annual difference between the highest and lowestdaily temperatures will decrease for all Russia and par-ticularly in the EPR. In Siberia and the Far East the

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%–10 –8 –6 –4 –2 10 120 5 4 6 8

Fig. GS8. Changes in annual runoff for the middle of the 21st century (2041–2060) derived from the ensembleof 16 CMIP3 AOGCMs for the SRES A2 scenario. Values are given in percent relative to the reference period. Dotsdenote areas in which two thirds of the models show changes of the same sign.

number of frosty days will decrease by 10–15 days andin the EPR by 15–30 days (AR, vol. 1, Ch. 7).

Precipitation. By the middle of the century,winter precipitation is expected to increase all over thecountry, and in summer the sign of its change willdepend upon the region considered (Fig. GS7c, d).The region with precipitation decrease is clearly seenin the southern regions of the EPR and Southern Sibe-ria. In this period the increase in winter precipitationwill far exceed the inter-model spread, particularly inthe eastern regions of Russia. In summer, the standarddeviation will remain large enough and, as a rule, willexceed mean changes in most regions of the country.Convective precipitation is expected to increase inmost regions in summer, but it will occur against thebackground of large inter-model spread. Furthermore,precipitation of high intensity may also occur againstthe background of the decreased number of cases withprecipitation in some southern regions (AR, vol. 1,Ch. 7).

Annual river runoff. During the 21st century fur-ther increase in water resources is expected in regionswhere they are now available or excessive, and furtherdecrease will occur in regions which experience watershortage nowadays. The largest increase in river runoffwill occur in watersheds of the northern rivers (North-ern Dvina, Pechora, Mezen, and Onega) and theSiberian rivers. On the other hand, runoff will de-crease in watersheds of the southern rivers (Don andDnieper) due to annual precipitation decrease andevaporation increase in spring and in summer. By themiddle of the century the annual changes of runoffwill exceed inter-model spread in watersheds of the

Lena, the Yenisei, and the northern rivers. Only inwatersheds of the Volga and the Ural will runoffchanges be insignificant until the end of the century(AR, vol. 1, Ch. 7).

Snow cover. Due to climate warming, a substantialreduction in snow cover will be expected in most ofthe country. The increase in winter precipitation inthe EPR will be due mainly to liquid phase, and inSiberia the major portion of additional precipitationwill be in solid phase. Thus, in the EPR, the reductionin snow mass and the increase in winter runoff willoccur, and in Siberia further accumulation of snowmass in winter and its more rapid melting in springcan be expected. This will result in more frequent andextensive flooding.

Sea ice in the Arctic. Considerable reduction in icecovered area in the Arctic will continue during the 21stcentury. The maximum sea ice extent, which is nor-mally observed in March, will continue to decrease by2% per decade, and the minimum ice extent, whichnormally happens in September, will be reduced by7% per decade relative to ice extent for the period1910–1959 with a faster reduction in the area of multi-year ice in comparison with the seasonal ice area (AR,vol. 1, Ch. 7).

Natural terrestrial ecosystems

In the 20th – early 21st century, under changingclimate, discernible shifts in phenological dates inplants (including frondescence (Fig. GS9)) and ani-mals (e.g., seasonal migration in birds), in spatial

15


Fig. GS9. Isolines for shifts in a frondescence date (first leaves) in common birch over the European part ofRussia in 1970–2000. Dots indicate locations of phenological observation stations (AR, vol. II, Fig. 2.6.2).

–7

–6

–5

Novgorod Vologda

–8

–7

–6

–5

–4

–3

Moscow

Smolensk

Kaluga

Kostroma

N. Novgorod

–4

–3Saransk

–2

–2

–1

–1

Tula Ryazan

Bryansk

Orel

Kursk

Voronezh

Lipetsk Tambov

Penza

Oka R.

Moscow R.

Volga R.

limits of vegetation zones and ecosystem structurewere observed in some regions (AR, vol. II, Ch. 2.6).

These tendencies will prevail under further warm-ing in the 21st century. Boundaries of vegetationzones will typically shift northward. The forest zonewill expand northward in the European part of Rus-sia, but southward expansion is also possible underhumid warming (i.e., if warming is accompanied byan increase in moistening). In Siberia, the decrease

in forest area may occur along with an increase infloristic biodiversity. Climate change may potentiallycause a species interaction mismatch, shifts in vege-tation zones in plains and altitudinal belts in moun-tains, and alterations in ecosystem structure. Naturereserves and other protected areas may partly losetheir nature conservation value due to such climate-driven changes (AR, vol. II, Fig. 2.6.2).

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Terrestrial cryosphere

Discernible climate warming, which was observedin the second half of the 20th century, particularly inits last quarter, has modified the thermal regime ofpermafrost. That has caused changes in the spatialdistribution and bearing capacity of the frozen ground.In the 20th century, there was a 1 to 2 latitudinal shiftof the southern permafrost boundary in response toclimate cooling of 1960–1970 and subsequent warming(AR, vol. II, Ch. 2.7).

In the 21st century, degradation of permafrost dueto climate warming will result primarily in an increasein depth of seasonal thawing and temperature of thefrozen ground. In some regions, separation of the sea-sonally frozen surface layer from the deeper relict per-mafrost layer may occur (with unfrozen ground be-tween them). The depth of seasonal thawing and freez-ing is governed largely by the soil type, snow depthand surface temperature (AR, vol. II, Ch. 3.7).

The southern permafrost boundary is expected tomove northward in areas of its intense degradation inWestern Siberia, by 30–80 km in the next 20–25 yearsand by 150–200 km by 2050 (Fig. GS10).

Permafrost occupies more than 60% of land inRussia. Changes in the frozen ground have a signifi-cant impact on the ecosystems of the permafrostregions. They lead to a decrease in bearing capacity ofthe ground and enhance methane emissions from soilsto the atmosphere. However, in the 21st century theexpected increase in emissions of methane fromwetlands of Russian permafrost regions will not haveany impact on the global climate.

In Russia, in the second half of the 20th century,particularly in the last decades, a tendency towardsdegradation of glaciers in the Arctic islands andmountain glaciers became evident. Such changes inmountain glaciers were observed in the Caucasus,Urals, Altai, north-eastern Siberia and the KamchatkaPeninsula. Such a tendency will prevail in the 21stcentury under expected continuous warming.

Seas

Northern seas (Baltic Sea, Arctic seas, BeringSea). Ice cover of the Arctic seas of the Eurasia shelfdirectly influences the marine economic activity. Inthe 20th century the total ice cover decreased due toclimate warming. However, the northward shift of thesea ice boundary did not occur everywhere. For ex-ample, in the last two decades of the 20th century, inthe eastern sector of the Arctic the boundary of multi-yearice shifted southward by 300 km on average relativeto the previous two decades (AR, vol. II, Ch. 2.8).

In 2001–2005 under warming, ice conditions fornavigation along the Northern Sea Route at the end of

It is expedient to supplement the territorialapproach to nature protection (i.e., natureprotection regime at selected lands, e.g., naturereserves, game preserves) with other measuresensuring protection of species and biologicalcommunities over their whole changing spatialrange. The development and implementation ofthe extended concept of nature protection bas-ed on the long-term ecosystem monitoring innature reserves and over the adjacent areas isone of possible ways of adaptation to changingclimate.

Climatic changes over most of Russia during thelast quarter of the 20th century and the beginning ofthe 21st century caused an increase in the net primaryproduction of ecosystems (under the assumption thatother, nonclimatic conditions remained unchanged).At the same time, in some regions, at differentlatitudes, observed values of the radial tree incrementdeclined in the second half of the 20th century vs.those measured in the middle of the century.

In the last quarter of the 20th century and at thebeginning of the 21st century, the carbon content insoils increased (under the assumption that other,nonclimatic conditions remained unchanged). In the21st century, under moderate warming and sufficientmoistening, carbon accumulation will be possible formost of soils in Russia.

In the 20th century, desertification observed overthe Russian arid lands was predominantly an-thropogenic. These lands do not belong to the cli-matic desertification zone. Their aridization (i.e.,decline in moisture content) is just sporadically main-tained by climatic factors in the years of dangerousdroughts.

At the end of the 21st century, if the aridwarming (i.e., warming accompanied by a decrease inmoistening) occurs over the European part of Russia,the aridity of climate will increase in the forest-steppe, steppe, and semi-desert zones. Steppes of theKrasnodar Territory and the Rostov region will be-come dryer.

An excessive land-use load on arid lands underchanging climate may cause disastrous local de-sertification.

Rational control of land use in arid areas, withthe interactions of anthropogenic and climaticfactors of desertification taken into account,may be an efficient adaptation measure.

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Fig. GS10. Possible changes in permafrost over the territory of Russia by 2020 and 2050 due to climate change.(1) Thawing everywhere in plains by 2020; (2, 3, 4) thawing everywhere by 2050 in plains, plateaus, andmountains, respectively; (5, 6, 7) partial thawing by 2050 in plains, plateaus, and mountains, respectively;(8, 9, 10) relatively stable state in plains, plateaus, and mountains, respectively. Black lines within color domainsindicate areas with a different character of permafrost changes under climate warming (AR, vol. II, Fig. 3.7.1).

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10

0 300 600 900 km

the warm season (August and September) became sub-stantially more favorable in high latitudes, namely, tothe north from the Arctic archipelagos Franz-JosefLand, Severnaya Zemlya, and New Siberian Islands.However, the increased occurrence of icebergs en-hances the risk for marine transport and fishery. Thechanges in climate have negatively affected the coastsof the northern seas (intensification of erosion) andcoastal infrastructure.

Ecosystems of the northern seas discernibly chang-ed under changing climate in the 20th century. Itrefers to microbiological parameters, phytoplankton,zooplankton, zoobenthos, fish, and populations ofmarine birds and mammals. At the end of the 20thcentury the habitat of polar bear decreased signifi-cantly as a result of reduction in sea ice cover.

In the 21st century, under further warming, theoverall tendency will be the reduction of ice cover inthe northern seas, although some periods of its in-crease and decrease at the regional scale may occur.An increase in the iceberg occurrence is possibleduring periods of warming, as well as degradation ofthe fast ice and erosion of the costline.

Cyclic changes in conditions of navigation alongthe Northern Sea Route associated with periods ofincrease and decrease in the ice cover will be observedin some regions. For example, the possibility of forma-

tion difficult and very difficult ice conditions willremain in the Dmitry Laptev, Sannikov, and De Longstraits. An increase in the ice cover may occur in theBarents and Kara seas in 2020–2030.

In the 21st century, under changing climate, fur-ther northward shifts in spatial ranges of many marinespecies as well as changes in biodiversity and size ofpopulations are expected. Alterations of climate willsubstantially affect the conditions for fisheries in thenorthern seas (AR, vol. II, Ch. 3.8).

It is expedient to take into account patterns offuture changes in the mid-term and long-termplanning of marine economic activity in theArctic, in particular, in designing ships, planningice-breaker services, and building the coastalinfrastructure. Although marine ice cover willdecline on average over the whole 21st century,maintenance of the ice-breaker fleet is animperative in view of a cyclic character ofchanges in ice conditions.Rational planning of fisheries, including de-signing the fishery fleet and optimal selectionof regions for fishery, can serve as possiblemeasures of adaptation to the changing climateof the northern seas for this sector of theeconomy.

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Fig. GS11. The long�term variations of the Caspian Sea level (m BS) in 1837–2006 (AR, vol. II, Fig. 2.9.14).

–25

–26

–27

–28

–29

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Years

Se

a le

vel,

m

South seas (Black Sea, Azov Sea, Caspian Sea).The major physical and chemical climate dependentparameters of the southern seas (thermal regime, level,salinity), as well as chlorophyll concentration, were sub-stantially changing at the end of the 20th century andthe beginning of the 21st century (AR, vol. II, Ch. 2.9).

The rise of the Black Sea level has been observedsince the 1920s. It has become much more rapid sincethe middle of the 1980s (about 2 cm per year). On thewhole, the annual mean sea surface temperatureincreased at the end of the 20th century and thebeginning of the 21st century. Over this period, nounidirectional variations in the surface layer salinityand chlorophyll concentration were revealed. Alongwith temperature variations, the Danube flow varia-tions influenced the chlorophyll concentration sig-nificantly. The long-term tendency to increase in theDanube flow was detected for the 20th century.

The Azov Sea level has started to rise rapidly(similarly to that of the Black Sea) since the beginningof the 1990s. From the 1920s to the beginning of the1980s, the sea surface temperature was increasingslowly; then the rate of increase has multiplied. Someperiods of substantial increase in salinity due to controlof the water flow and climatic factors were observed.However, since the beginning of the 1990s, theregional climate change has led to a decrease in AzovSea salinity that dropped down to values typical of thetimes before the river flow control in the sea basin hadbeen set up. In the basin of the Azov Sea the riverflow has had a long-term tendency to increase sincethe end of the 1970s.

The Caspian Sea surface temperature was increas-ing slowly over the 20th century up to 1970. Then therate of increase multiplied by 5 to 10. Significant long-

term changes in salinity were observed predominantlyin the shallow north part of the sea. They were causedmainly by variations in the Volga flow. Chlorophyllconcentration was also changing at the end of the 20thcentury and the beginning of the 21st century; how-ever, the long-term tendencies have not been detected.The Caspian Sea level varied substantially over the20th century, roughly from –29 to –25.7 m (in theBaltic System of heights, BS), see Fig. GS11. Its sig-nificant decrease by 1977 and subsequent increaseby 1995 caused noticeable damage to the regionalenvironment and economy. According to existing mid-term projections, the Caspian Sea level will not exceed–26 m (BS) by 2015.

The long-term (up to the end of the 21st centu-ry) projections of the Caspian Sea level are uncer-tain. According to some studies, an increase is ex-pected, while others project a decrease. The majorsource of uncertainty is differences in the parameteri-zation of evaporation processes (AR, vol. II, Ch. 3.9).An increase in the Caspian Sea level exceeding –26 m(BS) may negatively affect settlements and economicinfrastructure, and the landscape within the coastalarea up to 30 km wide.

It would be expedient to account for the risk offlooding in the coastal zone of the Caspian Seain the long-term planning of the development ofthe coastal regions, namely, the Astrakhan’region, Republic of Dagestan, and Republic ofKalmykiya. Such plans should include specialadaptation measures for settlements and infra-structure, in particular for transport.

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1 “Zimnik” is a road on the frozen ground which is impassable in other seasons except winter.

Engineering systems

Buildings and constructions. A tendency towardsan increase in snow loads on buildings and engineeringconstructions has revealed at the end of the 20thcentury. Wind and icing-wind loads have declined onaverage. Negative effects of frosting and thawing onbuildings increased in the European part of Russia andin the Far East (Primorye). The strength of basementsof buildings and engineering constructions located onpermafrost has declined in some Siberian regions. Thisoccurred due to changes in the bearing capacity ofground induced by warming and an increase in thedepth of seasonal thawing. The contribution of theenhancement of karst processes also played its role(AR, vol. II, Ch. 2.2).

Winter and summer river flows are projected toincrease in the Central and Privolzhskiy federal dis-tricts, in the southwestern part of the Northwesternfederal district and in some other regions by 2015.These changes along with reduction in depth of sea-sonal ground freezing and its duration will result ingroundwater level rise. This may lead to flooding ofthe vast areas and to deformation and weakening ofbasements of various buildings and engineering con-structions in the Russian plains, since excessive moist-ening, high level of ground waters and weak drainagecapacity are inherently typical of them.

In particular, monuments and architectural com-plexes and the valuable historical centers of cities inthe Arkhangelsk, Vologda and Leningrad regions, theGolden Ring landmarks located in the Kostroma andNizhniy Novgorod regions and in other areas of theNorthwestern and Central federal districts may bedamaged. Such processes have already been detected,and, under changing climate, their intensity is ex-pected to increase in the near future.

An increase in precipitation (in particular, liquidand mixed) and frequency of heavy precipitation overa significant part of Russian territory has led toworsening the maintenance conditions for highwaysand railways and to a danger of erosion for them insome locations. Car transportation along zimnik1 roadsand frozen rivers have become worse due to warmingin the Siberian and Far East federal districts, in par-ticular, in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and in theMagadan region.

Under further warming these tendencies will bekept on throughout the 21st century. The negativeeffects of climate warming on the bearing capacity ofground in the permafrost regions will be most signifi-cant in the Chukchi Peninsula, in the upper parts ofthe Indigirka and Kolyma basins, in the southeasternpart of Yakutia, in a substantial part of the West Sibe-

rian Plain, on the Kara sea coast, at Novaya Zemlyaisland, as well as within the area of isolated permafrostarea in the north of the European part of Russia.Under changing climate, intensification of riverbederosion will increase the risk of emergencies in theunderwater parts of pipelines (AR, vol. II, Ch. 3.2).

Changing climatic conditions should be takeninto account in designing buildings, engineeringconstructions, communication and transportmeans, in the development of rules for theirmaintenance. This can enhance the adaptivecapacity of the economic sphere to the climatechange. For prevention of possible emergenciesat pipe-lines, the design life for underwater partsof the pipe-lines should be revised and reduced,and respective efficient monitoring system ofpipe-lines has to be set up.

It is expedient to launch a program for theinvestigation of historical heritage landmarks, otherimportant buildings and engineering constructions,aiming at prevention of their flooding, deformationand weakening of basements induced by groundwatersrise level. Special protection measures, includingcontrol measures for water regime of flooding areas,should be worked out.

Heating season. Under climate warming observedover most of Russian territory in the last three de-cades, normative duration of the heating season andfuel demand for the indoor heating have decreased.The heating season in Russia will be shorter by 3 to5 days on average in 2015 vs. 2000. The most pro-nounced reductions, up to 5 days, will be observed inthe southern parts of Primorye, Sakhalin and Kam-chatka.

Calculated duration of the heating season willdecrease in the 21st century vs. the 1961–1990 meanvalues: up to 5% by 2025 and by 5–10% by 2050(Fig. GS12). These reductions will be most notice-able in the Far East. Energy demand for the indoorheating will drop respectively. At the same time, aircondition expenses for the indoor cooling will be-come greater, in between, for industrial buildings(AR, vol. II, Ch. 3.2).

In spite of the reductions in the average durationof the heating season, natural variability of climateshould be taken into consideration when strategicdecisions are being worked out. As a result of thisvariability in some years the actual duration of theheating season in some regions of Russia may exceedthe regional mean values known to date. A tendency

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Fig. GS12. Changes in duration of the heating season (%) over Russia by 2025 vs. 1961–1990 mean values:(AR, vol. II, Fig. 3.2.3). 1) 0...–1,9; 2) –2...–3,9; 3) –4...–5,9; 4) –6...–7,9; 5) –8...–10.

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towards an increase in climate variability may alsoplay a role in the deviation of real demand in heatingfrom its long-term mean values.

Water resources

The annual runoff is a major indicator of waterresources. Under natural conditions, it depends pre-dominantly on precipitation in the river basin andevaporation. Augmentation of the annual precipitation(that increased in 1978–2005 vs. 1946–1978) andreduction in potential evaporation over most of Russialed to discernible enhancement in the river flow by theend of the 20th century. The overall annual runoff ofthe six largest Eurasian rivers running into the ArcticOcean (namely, Yenisei, Ob, Lena, Kolyma, NorthernDvina, and Pechora) became greater over 1936–2005.Runoff from almost all Russian rivers, except thoseof the Don basin and of the upper Ob, increased.As a result, water resources of Russia as a whole grewup at the end of the 20th century (AR, vol. II,Ch. 2.4).

On the whole, renewable water resources may in-crease in Russia by 8–10% in the next 30 years. Theirdistribution will become more even. However, in some

heavily populated regions, which already have limitedwater resources, a 5 to 15% reduction in their amountis expected along with a 5 to 25% increase in wateruse load. This is expected in chernozem areas of theCentral federal district, in the Southern federal dis-trict, and in the southwestern part of the Siberianfederal district.

The expected changes in the river runoff will af-fect the water inflow to the major reservoirs. The an-nual average inflow to reservoirs of the Volga-Kamacascade reservoir system and of the Northwestern fed-eral district will increase by 5–10%. The inflow to theAngara-Yenisei reservoirs system, and to reservoirs onthe rivers Vilyui, Kolyma and Zeya will change by0–15%. At the same time, the annual average inflow tothe Tsimlianskoye, Krasnodaskoye and Novosibirskoyereservoirs will decrease by 5–15%. Seasonal distribu-tion of inflow to reservoirs will also change.

Alterations in the river flow due to expectedclimate change could be important for the hydro-power industry.

In the 21st century, under continuous warming,the glacial runoff will decline both in the GreatCaucasus and at its northern slope, although the trendsof the overall river runoff in the regions will be posi-tive (AR, vol. II, Ch. 3.4).

21


In the regions where reduction in water re-sources is expected, measures aimed at a searchand implementation of alternative and addi-tional sources of water for economic needs (inparticular, for irrigation and hydropower pro-duction) are expedient. Optimization of regionalwater use is also essential.Expected changes in the water inflow to re-servoirs will require a revision of their operatingmode. The interests of major users, primarily ofhydro-power industry, and environment protec-tion goals should be taken into account.

Agriculture

In 1975–2004, changes in the heat supply andwintering thermal conditions for agricultural plants,moistening and continentality of climate were positivefor crop production in the regions of Russia that pro-duce more than 85% of commodity grain. Despiteunfavorable social and economic conditions in the sec-ond part of the period, this ensured a positive trend inproductivity of cereal and leguminous crops in 70% ofconstituent territories of the Russian Federation.

Some agricultural pests with the life cycle stronglydependent on climate have become more active in thesouth of the European part of Russia and WesternSiberia in the late 20th century. Locusts and Coloradobeetle are amongst them. Their population growth andexpansion of ranges have led to considerable yieldlosses. Further warming over Russia may cause theenhancement of negative impacts of pests on thetotal crop yield. Particularly, conditions will becomefavourable for further expansion of locusts in StavropolTerritory, in the Kalmyk Republic, in Volgograd, As-trakhan’, Saratov, and Rostov regions, as well as forthe intrusion of locusts into some Siberian regions(AR, vol. II, Ch. 3.5).

The response of agricultural plant productivity tofurther warming will depend on the character ofchanges in moistening:

— if moistening reduces in the European part ofRussia, productivity will also drop almost everywhereexcept the north and north-west;

— if moistening rises, the average productivity inRussia will be increasing at least until the middle ofthe 21st century. Later on, productivity of cereal cropsin the Chernozem area will lessen by 10–13% vs.present level, but will exceed the present values by 11–29% in the non-Chernozem area. On condition ofpresent agricultural technologies and geographical dis-tribution of crops, productivity of cereal crops in theSouthern Siberia may decrease by 20–25%.

Further warming will allow considerable expan-sion of the overall agriculture areas in Russia. New

opportunities will appear for the geographical expan-sion of the cultivation of heat-loving agriculturalplants. Hence, the limit of cultivation zone for middle-ripening sorts of grain and late-ripening sorts ofsunflower will move northward to the Moscow —Vladimir — Yoshkar-Ola — Chelyabinsk line. Thelimit for sugar beet will be at the Ivanovo — Izhevsk— Kurgan line. New conditions for subtropical agri-culture will appear in some southern regions.

The following measures of adaptation of cropproduction aiming at the use of additionalthermal resources are expedient to introduce inareas with sufficient moistening:— expansion of sowing of more late-ripeningand more productive species (varieties) of cerealcrops, maize, and sunflower, late-ripening sortsof potato and rape:— wider use of fertilizers and chemicals whichare more efficient in warm and moist climate;— expansion of beet cultivation and moreheat-loving types of green crops, e.g., soybeanand alfalfa.

In addition, in the areas of insufficient moisten-ing, adaptation measures should be aimed at thethrifty water use, which means:— wider application of moisture-saving techno-logies (snow retention, reduction of inefficientevaporation, etc.);— expansion of sowing of more drought-resistant cultivars of maize, sunflower, millet,etc.;— increase in winter crop seeding, namely,wheat in the steppe regions of the Volga andUrals, and barley in the Northern Caucasus;— expansion of the irrigated agriculture, whichis necessary for complete use of additionalthermal resources in cultivation of agriculturalplants.

Human Health

Climate change can affect human health, includ-ing the distribution of some diseases.

Special impact studies of heat waves, i.e., longperiods of extremely hot weather, were conducted inseveral Russian cities, including Moscow and Tver.Negative consequences for morbidity and mortality insome groups of population have been detected. Duringthe last decade, the return time and severity of heatwaves have increased (AR, vol. II, Ch. 2.5).

In the 21st century, under increasing frequency ofheat waves and elevated maximal temperatures, risks

22


for the vulnerable groups of the population will grow.The combination of heat waves and enhanced air pol-lution may amplify the negative effects under adversemeteorological conditions. Deterioration of water qual-ity may also occur in some regions, including KalmykRepublic, Dagestan, and Karachai-Cherkess Republic(AR, vol. 2, Ch. 3.5).

Climate change may alter habitats of certain vec-tors of infectious and parasitic diseases of humansand animals. Tick-borne encephalitis, Lime disease,hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, Crimeanhaemorrhagic fever, West Nile fever and malaria areamongst them.

During the last three decades of the 20th century,especially at the turn of the century, the incidence ofthese diseases increased, and their habitat areas ex-tended.

Under further warming these tendencies are ex-pected to continue and even to become more pro-nounced for some diseases.

Climate change in the Arctic region may affectthe health and way of life of indigenous people, par-ticularly due to shifts in the ranges of some speciesthat traditionally serve as resources for local people(AR, vol. II, Ch. 3.5).

The development of means and systems of air-conditioning for residential quarters and in-dustrial facilities, an increase in their availabilityfor people, monitoring of adverse weather con-ditions, and preventive protection measures inregard to vulnerable groups could serve as meansof adaptations to the heat waves.

Continuous monitoring of contagious and pa-rasitic diseases, the habitats and size of popu-lations of vectors will facilitate efficient adap-tation to potential expansion of the diseasesunder climate warming.

Consequences of extreme meteorological events

More than 30 types of dangerous hydrometeoro-logical events are recorded in Russia. On average, thetotal number of them per year increased at the end ofthe 20th century and at the beginning of the 21stcentury. 52% and 48% of them were observed in theEuropean and Asian parts of Russia, respectively. Highimpact weather events are most frequent in the North-Caucasus and Volga-Vyatka economic regions, inSakhalin, Kemerovo, Ulyanovsk, Penza, Ivanovo,Lipetsk, Belgorod and Kaliningrad regions, and in theRepublic of Tatarstan (AR, vol. II, Ch. 2.10).

According to assessments of the World Meteoro-logical Organization and the International Bank for

Reconstruction and Development, a steady tendencytowards increase in economic losses and vulnerabilityof societies associated with increasing impacts of haz-ardous nature events has been detected. In Russia onaverage, the annual increase in the number of hazard-ous weather events in 1991–2005 was 6.3%. This ten-dency is expected to continue.

Droughts. In the last three decades of the 20thcentury and at the beginning of the 21st century, thelarge-scale overall droughts (e.g., the atmospheric andsoil draughts simultaneously) were recorded in Russiain 1972, 1975, 1979, 1981, 1995, 1998 and 2002.Droughts of 1975 and 1981 occurred in all cropproduction regions of the country; they wereunprecedented since 1891. The shortage in the totalgrain harvest in the country was about 23% of theaverage harvest. However, no certain long-term ten-dencies in the moistening were detected in the 20thcentury.

Under some scenarios, regional climate projectionsshow decline in soil moisture in spring and summer, aswell as drier conditions over most of European Russia.Assuming a substantial increase in air temperature, pre-cipitation decrease, and the more frequent occurrenceof extremely high temperatures and extremely low pre-cipitation, repeatability of soil droughts will increase insouthern regions of Russia, in particular, within theDon and Dnieper basins (AR, vol. II, Ch. 3.10.2).

Forest fires. Long periods of dry and hot weatherlead to increasing probability of forest fires. They maycause substantial damage. However, the prime sourceof about 70% of forest fires is violation of fire safetyrules by people while in forest. Direct losses fromforest fires (i.e., cost of burnt and damaged stands,forest production, etc.) made almost 20 billion rublesin 2004. The number of documented forest fires inRussia increased at the end of the 20th century and atthe beginning of the 21st century. The number of dayswith ‘high or greater’ flammability has noticeably in-creased, in particular, in the central part of EuropeanRussia, in southern parts of Western Siberia and in theFar East.

The number of days with the flammability riskwill increase by 5 days per season over most of thecountry by 2015. The number of days with bothhigh flammability and medium flammability will in-crease. This is expected to be most pronounced (by7 days and more) in the southern part of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area, in the Kurgan, Omsk, No-vosibirsk, Kemerovo, and Tomsk regions; in the Kras-noyarsk and Altai Territories; and in the Republic ofSakha (Yakutia).

Most of Russia is covered by woods. In this partthe number of days per year with potential ‘high orgreater’ will increase by 20–60% in the southern partsof European Russia and Western Siberia, at middlelatitudes in eastern Siberia and the Far East (Fig.

23


Fig. GS13. Changes (%) in the number of days with ‘high and more flammability’ by 2025 vs. 1961–1990 meanvalues: 1) 60–50; 2) 50–40; 3) 40–30; 4) 30–20; 5) 20–12; 6) 12–1; 7) 0; 8) –1...–10; 9) –10...–20; 10) –20...–30(AR, vol. II, Fig. 3.10.1).

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10

GS13). At the same time, the number of days with aflammability risk will decrease in Priamurye, in theMagadan region, and in the eastern part of theKamchatka Peninsula (AR, vol. II, Ch. 3.10.3).

Remote (plane, satellite) operational monitoringof forests, introduction of more efficient meansfor suppression of forest fires, and strengtheningof respective operative services raise oppor-tunities for effective adaptation to forest fires.

Development and implementation of programsstimulating people to follow the rules of fire-prevention safety while visiting forests, strength-ening the nature protection sections in theundergraduate and graduate educational prog-rams are important components of adaptationstrategy that may decrease the risks of forestfires.

Floods. At the beginning of the 21st century, inmany economic regions of Russia, the frequency ofcatastrophic flooding caused by high water and spring

floods increased by 15% vs. values of the last decadeof the 20th century. It was typical, in particular, of theNorth-Caucasian mountain rivers, of Eastern Siberiaand southern part of the Far East. Storm surges inNeva River in St. Petersburg have become morefrequent.

Under present tendencies of the climate changecontinuing in the 21st century, the number of floodsshould be expected to increase on rivers of a significantpart of Russia. As a result of expected precipitationgrowth, the probability of flooding caused by rainfallat small and medium rivers of the European part ofRussia, in particular, of the North Caucasus, and ofthe Far East will increase. The risk of dangerous floodson rivers in the season of snow melt will grow by 2015in those regions where ice jams accompany runoffpeaks. This is typical of the Arkhangelsk region, KomiRepublic, the Ural region, Eastern Siberia, and thenorth-east of the Asian part of Russia. The probabilityof storm surges will increase in deltas of big riversrunning into the Azov and Baltic seas (AR, vol. II,Ch. 3.10.4).

24


For reducing damage from inundations andprotecting the population, it is necessary tofocus efforts on the development of modernautomated means for prediction and preventionof flooding. The development of basin-scaleflood protection systems is essential. In addition,it is necessary to normalize the land use in zonesof risk and to improve the legal base definingthe precise responsibility of the state authoritiesand local administrations for consequences offlooding.

Mudflows and avalanches. Under present ten-dencies towards climate warming, duration of theperiod of mudflow danger on the northern slope of theGreat Caucasus in the 21st century will increase by47–50 days on average. The size of mudflows willbecome greater by 20–30% and amounts of matterforming them will also increase.

The period of avalanche danger will decrease onthe northern slope of the Great Caucasus in the 21stcentury, and the area of avalanche danger will declineat 1500–2000 m altitudes. The frequency of largecatastrophic avalanches at heights more than 3000 mwill increase (AR, vol. II, Ch. 3.10.5).

Conclusions

Scientific findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessmentreport, published in 2007, present further evidencethat the main cause of observed global warming isassociated with increasing human activity. At presentit continues to be major concern among publicorganizations, business community, and governmentsof most countries of the world.

Studies of Russian scientists, set forth in the firstnational assessment report, also agree well with IPCCfindings. Furthermore, climate change is expected toproduce significant influence on the environment andsocio-economic activity of different regions of thecountry.

Most of Russia is located in the area of con-siderable observed and projected climate change. Dueto large size of the country and specific inherentpatterns of natural environment, climate changes canmanifest regional non-uniformity. In some regions theymay be favourable, in others they may producenegative impacts. For example, climate change willfavor the displacement of the zone of comfortablehabitation northward, reduction of the heating period,and the increase in farming potential in regions withsufficient water resources. Global warming will alsoprovide favourable influence on ice conditions in theArctic seas, enhancing the potential for sea transportationand development projects on the Arctic shelf.

On the other hand, reduction of water resourcesis expected in the regions where their deficit isexperienced now. Enhancement of seasonal thawing ofpermafrost, especially nearby its southern boundary,poses a threat to infrastructure installations (housesand engineering constructions, communication lines,including oil and gas pipelines). Climate changes mightincrease the probability of occurrence of extremeevents, such as hurricanes, tornados, floods, avalanch-es and mudflows in mountain regions, droughts, firerisks in forests. All these will cause significant negativeconsequences for the population, as well as social andeconomical activities. Due to climate warming con-siderable changes are also expected in natural eco-systems, such as enlargement of ranges of some vector-born human diseases.

Further study of future climate change and itsconsequences and evaluation of adaptation potentialare required for the whole country and its individualregions. Special attention should also be given to thedevelopment of early warning systems and techniquesfor prediction of extreme events leading to seriousnegative socio-economical and ecological consequences.

It is necessary to strengthen studies aimed at thedevelopment of technologies contributing to reductionof climate change, increase in energy saving, use ofrenewable energy sources, and development of carbondioxide capture and storage technologies.

High-quality performance of the national integratedclimate observing system operated under Roshydrometis the basis for successful study of climate change inthe country and participation in the internationalcooperation efforts.

Significant dependence of the natural environmentand economy on climate, a large variety of expectedimpacts on socio economic activity in the country andparticipation of the Russian Federation in inter-national efforts aimed at mitigation of the anthro-pogenic influence on global climate require wellgrounded basis for proper definition of national policyin this problem area. The necessary components ofsuch policy are measures directed at decreasinganthropogenic influence on climate and measures ofadaptation to changing climate (i.e., prevention orreduction of harmful consequences of climate change).The most sizeable actions must be regulated by thegovernmental decisions taking into account that animportant part of such actions requires internationalcoordination.

In order to support proper planning and imple-mentation of national climate policy, Roshydromettogether with other concerned agencies of the RussianFederation intends to publish, on a regular basis,national assessment reports on climate change, itsconsequences, and the potential for adaptation toclimate change.

ASSESSMENT REPORT ON CLIMATE CHANGEAND ITS CONSEQUENCES IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION

General Summary

Design and original lay-out are developed by RSC “Planeta”Editor N. V. LeshkevichProof by V. V. Borisova

Designed by I. V. LomakinaTranslated by V. P. Meleshko and S. M. Semenov

Signed for printing: November 18, 2008.Offset printing. Format 60 X 84 1/8.Circulation 400 copies. Order # 36.

Published by RIHMI-WDC(6, Korolyova str., Obninsk, Kaluga region, Russia)

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